Just over a week ago, MLBTR’s Darragh McDonald discussed the National League Central, which is arguably MLB’s most tightly-contested division. While no other division compares to that projected dogfight, the American League East provides the Central with a worthy rival in that regard as the only other division that Baseball Prospectus’s PECOTA projects to not include a 90-loss team. Indeed, there’s an argument to be made that the battle for the AL East this year figures to be even more hotly contested. After all, PECOTA projects both the Pirates and Reds to finish with a lower win total than any of the teams in the AL East, while Fangraphs projects the East as the only division in the majors without a sub-.500 club.
That projection systems see the AL East as a division with five potential contenders is supported by last year’s results. The Orioles led the pack last season with a 101-win record, capturing the division title despite a strong showing from the Rays, who finished two games behind Baltimore. Both Tampa and Toronto also managed to make the postseason last year, while New York and Boston both remained on the periphery of the playoff picture into September despite ultimately coming up short. Since then, each club has seen significant changes, and with the likes of Blake Snell and Jordan Montgomery still on the market, it’s easy to imagine one or more of these club’s further improving their stock prior to Opening Day. In the meantime, let’s take a look at where things stand in the American League’s most competitive division:
Orioles: 101-61 in 2023, FG projects 85 wins in 2024, PECOTA 86.2
The Orioles were perhaps the most surprising team in baseball last year, surging to the club’s first AL East title since the 2014 season thanks to contributions from youngsters like Gunnar Henderson, Adley Rutschman, and Grayson Rodriguez. Those same young players will be back this season and figure to be joined by consensus #1 overall prospect Jackson Holliday at some point this season, perhaps as soon as Opening Day. The club’s exciting young core figures to once again be complemented by solid veterans such as Cedric Mullins and Anthony Santander as well, giving them a strong offensive nucleus with which to attempt to continue their reign atop the East.
With that being said, the club has seen some turnover this winter. Veteran starter Kyle Gibson departed the rotation via free agency this winter, and while the club swung a deal earlier this offseason to acquire former Brewers ace Corbin Burnes to front their rotation, dealing away promising southpaw DL Hall and infielder Joey Ortiz could be something of a blow to the club’s depth headed into the season. More noticeably, two key pitchers from the 2023 season are entering the season with significant injuries: closer Felix Bautista underwent Tommy John surgery late last year and figures to miss all of the 2024 campaign, while right-hander Kyle Bradish faces a lengthy absence of his own due to a UCL issue after leading the Baltimore rotation last season with a sterling 2.83 ERA across 30 starts.
While the injuries faced by Bradish and Bautista leave the Orioles without two of their top pitchers to open the season, the additions of Burnes and veteran closer Craig Kimbrel should help to soften those blows, and with youngsters such as Holliday, Cade Povich, and Coby Mayo all on the verge of contributing at the big league level, there’s plenty of reason to believe Baltimore can remain in the upper echelon of the league headed into 2024 as long as the club’s young stars can avoid taking a step back this season.
Rays: 99-63 in 2023, FG projects 86 wins in 2024, PECOTA 86.9
The Rays started the 2023 campaign on an incredible hot streak, winning a record-breaking 13 consecutive games to open the season last year thanks to strong pitching performances from the likes of Jeffrey Springs, Drew Rasmussen, and Shane McClanahan. Unfortunately, each of those aforementioned arms underwent season-ending surgery last year and are expected to miss at least the first half of the 2024 campaign, if not longer. Tampa’s rotation mix was further weakened by the club dealing right-hander Tyler Glasnow to the Dodgers back in December, leaving the club with little certainty in the starting mix outside of Zach Eflin and Aaron Civale. Another major loss from a production standpoint is shortstop Wander Franco, who posted 4.6 fWAR in 112 games last year but is facing sexual abuse charges in his native Dominican Republic that put his future in the majors in doubt.
Even with that hefty number of losses, however, the Rays still figure to be a force to be reckoned with headed into 2024. After all, the club sports one of the deepest lineups in the game, led by the likes of Yandy Diaz, Brandon Lowe, Isaac Paredes and Randy Arozarena. In addition to that group, the club sports plenty of young talent with the likes of Junior Caminero, Josh Lowe, and Curtis Mead all expected to contribute at the big league level at some point this season on the positional side. Meanwhile, the pitching staff boasts intriguing youngsters like Taj Bradley, Shane Baz, and offseason acquisition Ryan Pepiot, each of whom are likely to join Civale and Eflin as rotation pieces this season. The club’s perennially excellent bullpen continues to look strong as well, with a back-end trio of Pete Fairbanks, Jason Adam, and Colin Poche bolstered by offseason additions such as Phil Maton.
Given the number of significant absences the Rays are facing entering the season, it’s not necessarily surprising that projections systems expect the club to take a major step back in 2024. The club figures to rely on the likes of Jose Caballero and Taylor Walls in place of Franco at short and young, unproven arms like Bradley and Pepiot in place of established power arms like McClanahan and Rasmussen. Even so, the club’s deep lineup and strong bullpen figure to keep the club in contention for the AL East crown this season, particularly if the youngsters in the rotation find success in the big leagues.
Blue Jays: 89-73 in 2023, FG projects 85 wins in 2024, PECOTA 88.6
The 2023 season was a strange one in Toronto, as key stars such as Alejandro Kirk, George Springer, and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. took steps back at the plate to leave the club with a surprisingly tepid offense. That didn’t stop the Jays from contending last year, however, as the club managed to sneak into the final AL Wild Card spot with an 89-win campaign thanks to a strong performance from the club’s starting rotation. Kevin Gausman, Jose Berrios, Yusei Kikuchi, and Chris Bassitt each combined to give the club above-average production while making more than 30 starts a piece, and veteran southpaw Hyun-Jin Ryu managed to step into the rotation and provide solid back-end production when youngster Alek Manoah struggled badly throughout the season.
Entering the offseason, the club seemed poised to make big changes as they were connected to the likes of Shohei Ohtani and Juan Soto, though they ultimately ended up having a much quieter offseason. After watching the likes of Matt Chapman and Brandon Belt depart in free agency, the club brought in the likes of Isiah Kiner-Falefa and Justin Turner to fill the void at third base and DH while adding to their pitching depth with the addition of Yariel Rodriguez. Those minor moves leave the club likely to look for internal improvements as they hope to return to the postseason in 2024. Some of that improvement could come from the club’s young talent, with top pitching prospect Ricky Tiedemann likely to debut sometime this year while the likes of Davis Schneider and Ernie Clement figure to attempt to establish themselves in larger roles.
While the club’s lineup took a bit of a hit this winter after a disappointing 2023 campaign, a robust pitching staff figures to keep the Blue Jays afloat this season even if the offense fails to take a step forward. It’s easy to imagine the club returning to the postseason in 2024 if stars like Bo Bichette, Guerrero, and Springer can deliver impactful performances, especially if the club gets strong production from its supporting cast of hitters like Turner, Schneider, and Daulton Varsho.
Yankees: 82-80 in 2023, FG projects 89 wins in 2024, PECOTA 94.7
After missing the postseason for the first time since 2017 and barely escaping the 2023 season with a winning record, the Yankees wasted no time this winter in looking to improve the club’s postseason chances for year two of Aaron Judge’s nine-year megadeal with the club. That included a complete retool of the club’s outfield mix as the club acquired Juan Soto, Trent Grisham, and Alex Verdugo to complement Judge on the outfield grass while balancing a lineup that leaned too right-handed in 2023. The blockbuster deal for Soto and Grisham cost the club plenty of big league pitching talent, including the likes of Michael King and Randy Vasquez, though New York went on to patch up the club’s starting rotation by landing veteran right-hander Marcus Stroman in free agency.
That lengthy offseason shopping list seems likely to leave them in strong position to contend this season even as they lost the likes of Luis Severino, Harrison Bader, and King from last year’s club. Even as the club added a quality mid-rotation arm, solid outfield regulars, and a superstar bat to its mix, however, it’s possible the club’s most impactful improvements could come internally after the club dealt with a hefty number of injuries last year. Judge followed up his 2022 AL MVP-winning performance with another season that saw him post an OPS north of 1.000 in 2023, though he was limited to just 106 games by a toe injury. Meanwhile, southpaws Nestor Cortes and Carlos Rodon both struggled badly with injuries and ineffectiveness last year but still carry front-of-the-rotation upside when healthy, while veteran hitters like Stanton and Anthony Rizzo could also benefit from improved health this season and rebound from difficult 2023 campaigns.
Of all the clubs in the AL East, it’s easy to make the argument that the Yankees did the most to improve this winter. While even those additions may not be enough to catch up to the club’s divisional rivals on their own after an 82-win campaign, improved health from the club’s key regulars both on the mound and in the lineup could certainly help the club avoid missing the postseason in back-to-back campaigns for the first time since the 2013 and ’14 seasons.
Red Sox: 78-84 in 2023, FG projects 81 wins in 2024, PECOTA 79.2
It’s been a strange offseason in Boston, as the club began the winter with promises of a “full throttle” approach to the 2024 season and a goal of improving the club’s rotation. Despite those major plans, the club has generally opted for smaller moves throughout the winter. Perhaps the club’s most notable move was parting ways with longtime ace Chris Sale in a trade that netted the club young infielder Vaughn Grissom, while Sale’s spot atop the club’s rotation appears poised to go to right-hander Lucas Giolito.
The club also added outfielder Tyler O’Neill in a trade with the Cardinals while signing veteran closer Liam Hendriks to a two-year deal, though the righty won’t impact the team until the second half at the earliest as he recovers from Tommy John surgery. Those moves more or less leave the club in a similar position as they were last season, with Giolito replacing Sale while O’Neill and Grissom figure to replace Adam Duvall and Turner in the club’s lineup. While the club’s most significant offseason losses have been replaced in one form or another, other departures such as those of James Paxton, Alex Verdugo, and John Schreiber have all gone unanswered to this point in the winter.
Despite the club’s many question marks, there’s some reason for optimism in Boston, thanks to the young talent that could impact the club this year. In addition to Grissom serving as a potential solution at second base, Triston Casas, Jarren Duran, and Brayan Bello took significant steps forward last year and could prove to be core pieces for the club, while youngsters like Wilyer Abreu and Ceddanne Rafaela could also impact the club this season after making brief cameos in the majors last year. It’s certainly possible to imagine Trevor Story returning to the form that once made him a star with the Rockies now that he’s further removed from the elbow troubles that cost him much of last season, and Masataka Yoshida could be an impactful bat if he can recreate his performance from the first half of 2023 over the full season this year. Meanwhile, the rotation features a handful of interesting youngsters such as Tanner Houck, Garrett Whitlock, and Kutter Crawford, any of whom could prove to be an impactful arm if they manage to take a step forward this year.
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On the heels of a 2023 season that saw three of the division’s five teams make the postseason and its fifth-place finisher end the season with a better record than the fourth place finishers of four other divisions, it’s perhaps not a surprise that the AL East figures to once again be among the most competitive divisions in baseball this year. After a busy offseason in the division, which team do you think will come out on top? Was the Yankees’ splashy offseason to put them back in the driver’s seat? Will another year of development for the young players in Baltimore allow them to repeat their dominant 2023 campaign? Will the deep rosters of the Rays or Blue Jays manage to outlast the competition? Or could the Red Sox outperform the projections and take the division on the back of their young players and rebound candidates?
Which team in the AL East is best? Have your say in the poll below!
New York
Toronto
Baltimore
Tampa Bay
Boston
New York? Nope. they have 3 superstars and a team of replacement level players. It will be Baltimore on top.
Exactly, beyond two starters, what makes them an elite pitching team?
clipper – Yanks had the 7th-best ERA in the league last year, and that was without Cortes (2.44 ERA in 2022) and Rodon (2.67 ERA in 2021/2022) and Stroman (3.23 ERA in 2021/2022).
If all those guys stay healthy and pitch like they did in 2022, that’s gonna be one heck of a rotation.
And oh yeah, they had the best bullpen in MLB last year with a 3.34 ERA.
With that said, projections are beyond pointless. Injuries will play a HUGE part in each team’s record, and trade deadline acquisitions/departures will also.
@Fever
There era was 10th in the league from what i see, but you hit the nail on the head. Their bullpen is what carried them and the starter era was over a full 1 point higher than the bullpen. Your also not mentioning they lost what quite a bit of that great bullpen going into the season with middleton peralta signing elsewhere, king brito and vazquez were traded and i dont think they really replaced any. of that and yes i know king and brito went to starter at the end,
Also with that trade they lost a lot of pitching depth and are now much higher in payroll so any payroll they take on is double that. Pitching wise they took a pretty hefty step back and i dont see the batting compensating enough for that unless rizzo and stanton come back big and wells has a francisco alvarez type 2nd season. Along with them all staying healthy which is no small feat for stanton.and judge had 2 years of staying healthy but otherwise is very sus including last year.
How’s this for a laugh? The key to the Yankees will be a “healthy” Stanton with that new body of his. Imagine if he stays on the active roster. Seriously, I’m not projecting but it should be fun for the fans of four of the five clubs…
Roll – Yankees team ERA was 8th last year, just 0.11 behind the 3rd-best Rays. You can’t expect them to get nothing out of Rodon and Cortes again this year. Also keep in mind the last part of the season they were out of contention, so the focus wasn’t on results or winning.
mlb.com/stats/team/pitching/american-league/2023?s…
FWIW – If forced to predict with all teams assumed staying healthy, I have the O’s winning the division.
you said league which usually means major league and that they were 7. The link you posted was AL only not ML which would be the disparity. If it was ML it would push them to 10 and a 1/4 of a run behind the leader.
Im kind of curious why did you exclude the Blue Jays as number 2 and go to the Rays at number 3 to compare or use the Orioles at number 5 in the AL only?
baseball-reference.com/leagues/majors/2023.shtml
Just curious. If the focus was not on winning or results, what was the focus on? just collecting a paycheck?
Roll – American and National are each their own league.
Separating the two is necessary because of the unbalanced schedule. The Yankees played 116 games against AL teams, and only 46 games against NL teams. Therefore including NL teams in the ranking would paint a less accurate picture.
That is a great question about why I chose the Rays. If the Yanks had given up just 17 fewer earned runs, they’d squeak into 3rd-best.
The difference between #3-#4, and #4-#5, and #5-#6, and #6-#7, and #7-#8 is each so very small …. just a .11 difference in total. Whereas the difference between #2-#3 is .08
This approach is just a habit from my days analyzing variances ;O)
stymee – When teams fall out of contention, the focus becomes player health and evaluating what you have and how best to use it. Basically, playing out the string is like having another ST.
For example, it was only after the Sox dropped out of contention that they shut down Paxton and gave a bunch of playing time to guys like Dalbec.
You could expect them to get nothing out of Cortes ever again.
“League” usually means either American League or National League.
Hahahahahhahahahaha
Fever Pitch is a fake Red Sox fan and a closet Yankee Fan. I’ve said it on multiple posts like this. Constantly hating the Red Sox and cheerleading Cashman and the Yankees.
What’s to like about the current Sox club? Next year maybe but as constructed for 24?
Why you limiting it to 2024? Fevers been like this for a long time. Dont change what I said.
Devey – Great point. That’s a huge concern. Progress means the addition of talent and Breslow has not added talent and whether it’s ownership or him doesn’t really matter if it’s not going to happen.
We have to address the holes that exist to become better. I know nobody wants to hear it but we have a massive defensive hole at 3B, a massive offensive hole at SS, a pre-arb playing 2B, a high upside 1B, a former excellent left fielder who may or may not rebound, a break-out CF who might be forced into left field thanks to faulty metrics and the wrong guy (Abreu) making the outfield when Rafaela is the far better player. We have two crap catchers but one on the way and we have no top end to our pitching staff. Bello will get beat up by SP2s all year long, Giolito will struggle even more than Eovaldi did when Sale and Price were lost to injury and he had to face SP1s all year. Pivetta is playing for an extension so he might get it if he pitches well. Houck is a round peg being forced into a square hole and Crawford has been completely discounted even though he pitched well for a young kid in 2023. The bullpen will be gone in 2024 and if Cora is still around, the team will have no improving horizon just more of the same below league average talent and performance. Something has to change or the future is no different than the present, the players are simply older but not necessarily better.
The construction of the 24 roster was done by the same people that will construct the 2025 and 2026 roster, Breslow and the Owners. What indication have they given us that things will get better in the coming years? None, that I can see. As an old timer, it reminds me a lot of the pre 1967 Red Sox. You knew what to expect, a second place or worse finish. As of today, we can expect a last place finish based on talent and the lack of acquiring it during the off season.
APBA – Seriously? You attack a guy for not seeing things the way you do? Being negative or positive about what’s going on is the essence of being a fan.
I became a fan in 1960 when I first watched Ted Williams and I can say over the years I’ve been more angry than happy about the way the club was run. Recently, they experienced what so many organizations experience, a winning era. The problem is most organizations can’t hang on to the era because of egos and poor decision making. That’s the case for Boston. The day the Red Sox fired DD was much like the song that spoke of the day the music died. American Pie could have been written about DD’s firing not the plane crash. The net result was the same. Nothing but sadness for years.
Fever like so many other long time fans have seen the bad, the good and now the bad AGAIN. After tasting the good, we desire it to come back and every minute ownership and Breslow hesitate to bring back the winning is another day of bitterness. We had the answer until ownership chose to find the answer they didn’t see right in front of them. They were idiots and have behaved badly ever since. They need to go along with Breslow and the cheating jackass Cora.
Wipe the slate clean and build from what you have today. You can’t lose the bad contracts from Bloom (Devers, Story and Yoshida) but at least Breslow’s bad contracts are shorter term. Erase the chalkboard before the season starts and give an experienced GM the opportunity to create his own staff and a winning roster with CAP money. No luxury tax but also no $40MM short of the luxury tax. Spend every last dime to get TALENT and change the future of the Red Sox.
TF – Thank you! I can’t see who attacked me or why, but it looks like you addressed it very well as usual.
Hey Crawford looked really good today! I keep wanting to call him Shag because of Steve Crawford, remember him?
Fever – LOL!!! I had to look up the name and the second I saw the photo I burst out laughing. Yeah, I remember him. Big dude big hair.big stache if I remember right.
I agree. The Yankees bench hit as well as their everyday players. If Rizzo rakes & slugs dingers as gleybor revisits 2023 numbers AND volpe and DJ can get on base- yes they don’t need to hit .359 just get on base and let AJ & Soto & Rizzo bring them in they can win if the pitching does their job. Also- Stanton has to mash and THEY ALL HAVE TO STAY HEALTHY. there are a lot of nuts and things that have to able. And they have to all stay healthy. All very difficult for them to do. They do look through the 1st few games of spring training hahahaha but only Yankees fans see that as them winning the pennant and World Series. Good luck NYY. I hope it works out.
Baltimore has the youth and talent that can stay healthy all season and win 100 games. The Yankees are a 40 man roster of question marks. And a minor league system of decent defenders that can’t hit at the ML level. How are they supposed to win the division? Because they hit a few homers in early spring training? Cole gave up a dinger to Danny Burgers for crying out loud. Didn’t he hit .165 in 2023?
Keep dreaming!!
Yankees are going to be a .500 team this season. Their pitching is going to get shelled. And they can’t score 8 runs a game to win enough games to get to the post season.
O’s coming off a 101 win season. Who’s the present day dreamer?
100 percent
Would consider the Yankees a good darkhorse bet to finish last in the division. Just like stl last season.
The Sox will likely finish last. Rays Jays and orioles are still likely better, younger healthier, and have more all around talented players than then NYY. The vast majority of the NYY can’t both hit and play Defense. They have a couple guys that can mash, but aren’t the best in the field and can’t seem to stay healthy. One guy that used to mash and play 1/2 a season last year and hit .128? Guess who? lol the rest are very good infielders that all hit below the Mendoza line. Good luck wining the pennant lmao
Every ball hit to the outfield will be at least a single in NY with those outfielders.
Why would Blue Jays be better than last year?
O’s are going to miss Bautista – Kimbrell is a partial replacement but they also have Tate back and Wells could still return to late innings
Adley and Gunnar will get better and Westburg could break out. Also people forget they won 101 with Mullins either out or playing at 50% most of the year. So how exactly do they lose 15 more games than last year?
This will come down to whether O’s or Yankees stay healthier. The Jays and Rays are good but a notch below. Sox are a sub 500 team
The Jays could easily have one of the best rotations in Baseball and some of the best defense. All it takes is for some of the young guys to have a little better year this year and they could be way better this year. That being said if I was a betting Man I would put the O,s on top
Tuck – Turner and YRod could be difference makers. I’m also counting on a rebound season from Vladdy, although I expect regression from Bo.
“You funny, GI…I kill you last.”
I hate to say it, but I think it’s the dirty Yankees. Feel Baltimore comes back to earth a bit, they’re not sneaking up on anyone this season. Rays, Jays and Red Sox have all took a step back.
While NY will score more – they’ll also give up more runs with a weaker defensive OF as Judge is overextended in CF and Soto has been a butcher in the corner OF much of his career – notably getting worse the last 2 seasons.. Health is also a concern.
There’s also the bigger question on what they’ll get from the rotation beyond Cole – considering Rodon, Stroman and Cortes have injury concerns, and Schmidt is a back-end/long relief guy who’ll likely be overtaken by one of their young arms (Beeter/Warren/Hampton) by midseason.
There is no way their starters beyond Cole are good enough to make them a winning team, especially once the postseason rolls around when you need two or three aces to win it.
Agreed. People think MLB teams let their guard down when they play a team that’s not supposed to be as good them? LOL
Bingo.
The Rays hands down. The BEST Managed team in the AL. You know it. I know it Everyone knows it.
Not this season, sadly – McClanahan, Springs and Rasmussen are hurt, and the Rays system is weak on arms right now due to poor development in recent years. 2024 is likely going to be a rough year in St. Pete.
That was said last year. Bet they finish no less than third.
Lucky – Last year they had an all-star shortstop with 5.5 WAR in just 112 games, this year they don’t. Same with Glasnow.
Yes. Third. Orioles, then (shudder) Yankees
@Dig You haven’t been paying attention to this team have you? Every year people think it’s going to be a down year for them. But with their FO. They know how to draft and develop players. When they acquire a player that player usually has his best year. When another team hires away someone from there FO it’s because they want their team run the Rays way.
Leach – Friedman has been spending like a drunken sailor and Bloom got fired after 4 disastrous seasons. Who else ya got for an example?
WL: You are right about the Rays being well run. I don’t think they will win the division, but they may finish second. I think the O’s win the division and it is pretty close after that, probably decided by injuries.
The Rays should be playing more for 2025 onwards. As stated, three of their top starters are out for most if not all of 2024. And despite what some have said about their depleted farm system, they actually do have quite a bit more talent on the way, both hitting and pitching wise. The unfortunate part is that a lot of it won’t be MLB ready until at least 2025. I predict the Rays to be decent this season but very good in 2025.
If only they managed Franco from Wandering his eyes on underage girls
Baltimore has gotten better than last year when they won over 100 games and now they have big money behind them. They will be on top.
Unfortunately, any big move for an arm will likely have to wait until July as the ownership change won’t happen in time for the team to bring in somebody like Snell or Montgomery.
Burnes isn’t enough. They need at least another top-tier arm if they’re serious about contending.
Also remember the bullpen will be worse with Felix Bautista out for 2024 due to TJS – that could end up costing them a lot of games, especially with how inconsistent Kimbrel has been in recent years.
Gotta remember – Kimbrel was in that Philly band box last year. You have a lot more room to err in Camden Yards.
Reports are that new Oriole ownership will be in place by Opening Day. MLB has pre-approved the new owners.
Ubaldo – I think he meant postseason.
There’s Tampa competing, not winning a legit postseason series since 2008.
And there’s Astros competing, going deep in the postseason nearly every year.
Never count the Rays out at all.
Rays will be as good as they were before Wander Franco
Rays are always competitive. Everything came together for the Orioles last year, and it could happen again. Those would be my top two. I get it that two systems rate the Yankees better, and they should be better, but….that’s a lot of money to be spending on a lot of often injured players.
As much as I’d like to see Baltimore to take the top spot, I don’t have the confidence in their front office and management to take the necessary steps to win. Sadly I expect the Yankees to do whatever it takes to claim the top spot once again.
It’s more Baltimore ownership not being willing to spend when the opportunity is there.
Yes, they won 101 games, which is my point.
They acquired an ace in trade, adding about $15M in salary for this one season. They also lost Bradish for an unknown length of time, so the pitching gain is smaller than it seems.
Player payroll is minimal beyond this year, but they haven’t acquired any long-term rotation help. Meanwhile, they have a position player prospect surplus they could use to acquire that long-term rotation help.
New ownership isn’t in charge yet and may or may not spend to win. It isn’t helping in the present when a clear opportunity exists.
At the moment, the Orioles are seeing what their backend prospects and free agent, minor-league pick ups can provide. Remember, they’ve had wonderful surprises last couple of years, from Bautista to Coloumbe to Yennier Cano to Ryan O’Hearn.
Just today, Roberto Suarez was a last minute replacement for Corbin Burnes, touched 97, and got 7 ks in 3 innings.
I’m pretty sure that Mike is waiting to see what this year‘s surprises will be before he does anything, and he won’t do anything desperate.
New ownership does not guarantee that financially the team will be run differently. After kicking out over a billion for the purchase, the .purse strings may not be as loose as you hope.
What?! Elias is the best GM in baseball right now. Hyde is coming off Manager of the Year. They had a fantastic season with a very young and inexperienced team.
Tough call.
Rays and Red Sox could easily finish last because Boston still hasn’t added starting pitching, and the Rays are stepping back this year while they await their starters to get healthy.
Yankees did add Soto and Verdugo – but they’ll be worse defensively in the OF having Judge in CF and Soto in RF, and the rotation is a Cole injury away from being a disaster – if only their payroll wasn’t so inflated that they can’t sign Snell – who is badly needed in that rotation. Bullpen’s also a little dicey
Blue Jays still need to find a 3B and a RH OF.. their rotation (except Manoah) is in good shape and the pitching depth is a little better than last year, especially with Francis, Tiedemann and Dallas, and maybe a healthy Mitch White in the mix.
O’s would be the top team – if injuries hadn’t taken down Bradish and Means, as their system is not terribly deep – they need another big move for a starting pitcher if they’re serious about the AL East.
So my ranking:
Yankees
Jays
O’s
Red Sox
Rays
I think the Os will make a big move for the rotation in July if necessary. The laughable thing to me is how everyone hand waves Stroman, Cortes and Rodon’s injuries and ineffectiveness last year but Tyler Wells and Cole Irvin as your #4 and #5 starters are a serious rotation liabilities.
Wells and Stroman followed the same arc as excellent pitchers in the first half then were much less effective in the 2nd half and were limited in their MLB time. Irvin threw a 3.20ERA in 64IP after returning from the minors as he got banished for his horrible first 3 starts. Cortes and Rodon weren’t healthy and when they were they didn’t look like their elite selves.
Stroman has the track record to expect it was a blip but it’s not like Rodon and Cortes have the same track record Cole does or anything. It blows my mind to see the Yankees rotation get assumed to be fine when any other team would have their rotation plan exposed as wishful thinking.
dig – How can you put ANYONE behind the Red Sox? That’s absurd. So you think TB will win less than 66 games? I’m not a Rays fan but they always do well with very little talent. They can’t win it all but they are a participation trophy type organization. They are a guarantee to finish in front of the Red Sox. Heck, there is a good chance KC and PIT will have a better record than Boston.
Dig – Two-time GG Grisham will get more PT than you realize.
Only one team will win 90 games in the AL east. The old and injured yanks will be that team.
bruce – You are grossly under estimating how much better the AL East is than the rest of the AL.
Texas – Houston – Baltimore- New York = Toronto – Tampa Bay – Seattle
That’s it. The rest are mediocre to bad.
3 teams finish above 90 wins in the AL East and ONE finishes below 70 in wins.
Baltimore 91
New York 89
Toronto 85
St. Petersburg 82
Boston 79
The predictions with estimated win totals are more interesting (informative) to me because the difference in the 1 – 5 spots may only be a game or 3 etc
My guess
BAL 94
NY 90
TB 86
TOR 85
BOS 83
It is so hard to predict because you know there will be major injuries and significant trades
I definitely agree with many commenters here NOT to Under Estimate the RAYs.
TB take a unique MacGyver/Duct tape approach to making all the puzzle pieces fit together. A platooning strategy “in theory” can keep the whole roster sharp
They will have 2 or 3 prospects, DFAs, trades you never heard of playing BIG roles.
Their opening day pitchers are good enough and the ones they get back will help more in the second half to hold down teams with more offense depth.
A successful bullpen or TOO many Blown saves are often the downfall of many seasons and they can be SO demoralizing/Achilles Heel etc.
Almost got it right but with no new acquisitions , with the same guys returning Jays will be last and they will continue to not go anywhere with that management .
Theodore – BOSTON has last locked up by a dozen games or more. Toronto may finish fourth or TB with it’s depleted pitching could finish fourth but neither team will be close to Boston. We are talking top 8 draft pick in Boston for 2025 draft.
Rays will somehow find a way to win 95 games.
With THAT rotation? Don’t bet on it.. 85 at best and no playoffs as 2024 is basically a retooling year while they distance away from the SS that shall not be named and await their top arms to come back from Tommy John surgery.
85 is not an “at best”, but a most likely for the tampa team. it sounds like a lot but they are built to weather storms, and 2024 will be a storm but the st. petersburg ship is going to manage to come out above .500, blue jays could top at 90 but are more likely closer to .500 than the rays, yankees have a high ceiling but after lost seasons from cortes and rodon, they are now leaning more heavily on those two this year… i predict around 90 wins for them, but second place to the orioles who will be a second half team, when all their prospects who are ready have arrived and bradish and means are back from injury. 94 wins for the o’s
red sox might be .500 if their pitching dreams work out, but probably are an 80 win team as constructed. oneill is better than masa in the outfield, but overall the defense still looks quite rough. casas, grissom, story and devers is at best a troubled defensive mix, with devers and casas’ early career issues, story’s recent arm troubles and grissom’s inability to become an infielder under ron washington in atl. if the bullpen is league average and the starting staff all hit a peak, theyll maybe get to 86 wins.
pohle – You are grossly over estimating Boston. 66 to 70 wins as constructed today. No pitching coupled with no hitting and bad defense is hard to overcome as a ball club.
1 all-star hitter on the roster and he completely negates his offense with his worst in baseball history defense. Jansen the lone pitching all-star will have limited opportunities for saves with a team that lost it’s best hitter for the second off season in a row without replacing them.
Stick a fork in Boston. Kennedy will work his magic and the Rays will win more than they should as they always do, Toronto will struggle as usual but has enough talent to go down to the wire with TB for a playoff spot, NY added Soto so now they can produce runs at the top of their order making them far more dangerous than last year but they aren’t built for the playoffs so another one and done playoff march for them, and BAL is the cream of the crop. They will win the division easily and compete with Texas and Houston to win the AL and go to the world series.
As a Yankee fan, I enjoy seeing what Baltimore has done and hopes it continues. Its been a long time but I hope the rivalry from the mid 90s is born again. those were some incredibly intense series. As long as Boston is last thats all that matters.
FULL THROTTLE
And how accurate were their predictions last year? Did Fangraphs and PECOTA call 100 wins for Baltimore? Or 85?
These predictions tend to be fairly accurate overall but they always miss a few teams by quite a bit. Usually at the top and bottom.
Fangraphs has 81 wins to 89 wins, an 8 game spread. The spread will probably be more.
wh
“These predictions tend to be fairly accurate overall but they always miss a few teams by quite a bit. Usually at the top and bottom.
Just for the record, that’s not a problem with projectiins. It’s a problem with reality*
:waits for the unknowledgeable people to quit laughing:
It’s like flipping a coin. You know it’s a 50/50 probability. But if you flip a coin twice you will two heads or two tails half the time
There’s nothing wrong with your projection.
*Sample size and probability distributions
But a full season is not a sample, it’s a population. Sure, if you flip a coin 162 times, you will typically get results clustered around 81. And you could call the AL East an unfair coin that has a higher probability of heads than 1/2. So it’s a cluster at 85 instead of 81. But I just believe there’s more variability in the AL East than defined by these predictions. Fangraphs SD is 2.5, when last year’s results had SD of 9.
Why would there be less deviation than last year? Did the bad teams improve themselves and the good teams lose talent? You can argue for the Yankees improving but I don’t see how the Orioles are worse. Tampa Bay has injuries but they had them last year as well. Toronto and Boston seem the same. So, probably less than 23 games apart like last year, but 8 games apart?
why
“But a full season is not a sample, it’s a population. ”
That’s not true. Yes. It’s all the games. That doesn’t mean it’s enough data to eliminate randomness
“But I just believe there’s more variability in the AL East than defined by these predictions. Fangraphs SD is 2.5, when last year’s results had SD of 9.”
You’re not really using those terms correctly, but the reason there’s more of a range in real life is because it’s not a large enough sample to eliminate all the randomness.
Yes, from a timing perspective, there’s an issue because we don’t know the true result until after the season is over. So you have a point there, but I feel that the predictions are uisng the overall mean of .500 too heavily. They should assign a higher credibility to their feelings about the teams.
And there will always be randomness until the season is finished. Thinking of a hurricane’s path and how it’s a reverse envelope as it travels. You have to make the people who could be in its path aware of the likelihood of getting hammered. Not that they will listen, but they should.
So I would like to know if rooting for the Red Sox this year is a waste of time but I won’t listen. I’ll have the game on while I’m hammering the covers on my windows. (Actually, I don’t live in Florida, thank God.)
Why
“we don’t know the true result until after the season is over”
We know the results, yes
Just like we know the result of a coin flip. But one coin flip isn’t enough to tell us what the actual probability of s specific coin is. 162 flips might not be enough. 162 games isn’t enough to fully reflect how good a team is
“but I feel that the predictions are uisng the overall mean of .500 too heavily. They should assign a higher credibility to their feelings about the teams.”
Why should they do that?
Have you looked at the data and seen that they consistently over/underate certain teams?
I’m sure they have looked at the data, and if they were under or overating teams they would make those adjustments.
Again, they are aware that the best teams will outperform the projections and the worst teams will underperform the projections.
But, that’s coin flips. We know of we flip 30 coins 162 times not all of them will be 81/81. But we don’t know beforehand which coins will over/underperform.
Exactly the same, we don’t which AL East teams will over/underperform.
Didn’t FG and PECOTA both predict Baltimore to be sub .500?
Ra
“Didn’t FG and PECOTA both predict Baltimore to be sub .500?”
I just spent like 3 comments explaining this to someone else.
Why don’t you read that?
I don’t read your comments because I have no respect for your opinions.
You needn’t reply to my comments in the future.
Lots of good points throughout these discussions. That said, I don’t agree with PECOTA’s significant reduction in O’s wins. Yes, they had an excellent season, arguably overachieved. But, they also got better – a lot better, imho.
The Yanks are markedly better in their weakest area – hitting. So, they *should* be the best team, arguably. But, the division winner making crucial improvements to their weakest area – pitching- leaves me voting that the O’s are favorites to win it again.
It’s also why games are played on the field. These projections are always off.
The projection systems really seem to distrust the O’s youth movement. I thought their reasonable success of 2022 was fluky, but after last year, it’s hard to see it as fluky or that they are going to fall as much as the projections say.
The Yanks offense, specifically the outfield offense should be dramatically improved. But it always comes back to pitching.
If it’s just Cole and a bunch of underachievers again, the better offense won’t really make a ton of difference. But if they can get at least a couple of their other starters to be healthy, productive versions of themselves, they can make some real noise.
Sadly, I don’t think my Jays have the offense to keep up with the better teams this year. They have the pitching and defense, but at some point they going to have to score runs.
Completely agree with you – that was really well said, particularly with the Yankees. I feel like they have a good shot at competing, but it’s contingent on Rodon and Stroman staying healthy & pitching well. Those are big IFs.
Not sure why the projections favor them so heavily. Blue Jays seem like they’re in a really weird place to me. Almost as if they cut their own window short. They had a really good core developing, and the seemed to be supplementing that core with FA signings….. then kind of just stopped. I do feel like Manoa rebounding could be really impactful for them though.
The Jays got even worse in the off season , and if the pitching also slips they will be in serious trouble they may be a .500 ball club or worse .
Adding Soto to a solid offensive team, may have really improved it. The Yankees were not a solid offensive team last year, however. Grisham and Verdugo help defensively, but do little to ramp up the offense.
stymeedone – You be the judge but to me Verdugo sucks on defense unless the ball is in front of him and he can slide for it. He reaches up for balls and simply misses them on a regular basis and no errors are assigned. But hey, if he has good range who cares if he catches it!!! Modern metrics, the biggest farce in baseball.
The Tampa Bay Rays will not finish in last place. That’s reserved for bahsten. TB will, once again, be underestimated. I expect them to be very competitive in the race for the AL East. 93-69
GO RAYS!!!
This is definetly a case of the Yanks getting way too much favortism and media-love. Beyond their number one ace, they others can easily flop or breakdown. You can’t win with just one healthy/reliable starter no mater the amount of runs scored. Plus they will get kicked out in the postseason if they still have one legit ace.
I choose the Rays every year. They seem to surprise. It’s funny how last year everyone chose Yankees. It seems that everyone chooses the team the last year that won, but that has not been consistent in this division year to year. I’m going with Rays.
Rays
Orioles
Yankees (wild card)
Blue Jays
Red Sox
I’d love the Red Sox to surprise, but not sure that’s going to happen
Orioles: 95 – 67
Yankees: 92 – 70
Rays: 88 – 74
Blue Jays: 85 – 77
Red Sox: 76 – 86
Yankees
Baltimore
Toronto
Tampa Bay
Boston
Orioles
Rays
Blue Jays
Yankees
Red Sox
I think if you look at the Yankees, you see two major problems: one they are fragile/having regressing hitters except for one or two guys. Then they only have maybe two legit starters (with one who tanked at the end of the year last year for the Cubs). How are they supposed to win consistently? They will score runs but they won’t have a reliable starter beyond Cole.
I know two things.
1 – Everyone will have their differeing opinions – with some fan bias involved.
2 – PECOTA has a great gig. They are allowed to be wrong all the time, but still are considered an accurate way to assess/predict. But they do have a lot of their shills convincing everyone that whatever they get wrong is just an anamoly of sorts. And they’d never admit to being incapable of evaluating certain types of teams. But they do stay respected…somehow.
That’s just the nature of the beast. You can’t predict injuries, or large changes in performance, because they haven’t happened yet.
If there is a better projection system, please tell us all about it.
keithyim – It’s the future. It’s unknown. Being less wrong rather than right should be the objective.
Talent should still be the primary barometer for future success.
Baltimore has tons of it and Boston has next to none so first and last are easy choices. It’s all those in between that are subject for debate based on injuries, good and bad performances and smart or stupid additions during the season.
BAL (NY/TOR/TB) BOS it’s safe and accurate. Talent is the most key factor in who wins during the regular season.
I use my personal eyeball test. I’m usually better off than PECOTA – certainly not worse.
And I usually hit the mark with the teams that their system can’t evaluate. Their system tends to be based on cookie-cutter models based on theories of success rooted in limited philosophies.
@Ubaldo, that was my immediate thought to his post. Its the only job, you can be right 55-60% of the time and be considered top class
FEELS GOOD MAN
if NYY sign Snell adding the NL cy Young with AL cy Young cole, then that will make history and should make things interesting for the east race.
If the Ray’s were fully healthy , hands down Tampa
But I’ll go Baltimore with the Yanks a close 2nd
Baltimore will be the best team in the east for the next couple of years, but without a salarly cap, they will be back to winning 70 games per season by 2027.
Reality
Rays.
Despite the constant injuries and losing key players in the offseason (and in-season, for that matter), they always prevail. Baltimore was fantastic last year, no doubt. But it will be the Rays until another AL East team wins it all.
Touch em all Joe – What you wrote makes no sense. Why would winning it all put TB ahead of anyone? NOTE TO WRITER – They have as many rings as I do.
Right now, BAL is on top of the heap NOT TB. TB are slugs who do well during the regular season and choke in the playoffs. NY bought more talent and should be considered better than TB as of today. Toronto and TB tend to finish close to each other and that probably happens again in 2024. Boston sucks and isn’t in the picture at all.
The idea that TB prevails is silly. They have no rings. They do well for the money spent but are NEVER a serious contender thanks to their payroll. They are the little engine that could ALMOST but they can’t win rings. Face the facts. It’s a great story but there won’t ever be a happy ending until they move to where a baseball club can be supported by the fans.
“Why would winning it all put TB ahead of anyone?” Well, winning a World Series would certainly put them ahead. You don’t think so? Interesting.
Although I agree with your basic point, I’d like to point out that winning rings means nothing, because the team that wins a ring is not comparable to the exact same team next year. There’s turnover, there’s regression, there’s new injuries, and so on. Every team is an entity unto itself, and has absolutely nothing to do with next year‘s version of the same team.
The magic of Tampa Bay is that they consistently take lemons and make lemonade, and do so without spending a lot of money, without a lot of fans, and while playing in a park that normally wouldn’t be adequate for monster truck rallies.
All respect to Tampa Bay, but this is Baltimore‘s year. Next year, too.
Winning rings means nothing? Really? What is the point then? Who makes the most money? Who has the best coaching staff? Prospect pool? I have so many questions!
Winning rings one year has no effect on the team next year. Just because the Yankees have won 27 World Series has nothing to do with 2024. That is also true of the Rangers who won last year that doesn’t mean they’re gonna win this year. That was my point.
Yankees.
Rodon had a 2021 and a 2022 ERA of 2.37 and 2.88 with K/9 of 12.52 and 11.98.
Cortes had a 2021 and 2022 ERA of 2.90 and 2.44 with a K/9 of 9.97 and 9.25.
Cole is a throwback workhorse and the reigning CY while Stroman has been pumping out QS for a decade.
That’s why the projections favor the Yankees. Not to mention a 5-8 WAR hitter in JUAN friggen’ SOTO.
Red Sox completely. Ownership promised to wildly improve the team and they delivered… hold on, I’m getting a note here… wait you’re telling me the ownership quickly backed away from that, didn’t really add anything, in face they more or less subtracted. Looks like money saving moves… that Devers contract last year really was just an act of appeasement not a sign of serious commitment.
Yeah, we’re fighting for last place again. I’m more looking forward to the Worcester games this year. The one thing I will say is I like the Chris Sale trade. Sale wasn’t doing anything for us, he was done for us. If he bounces back with the Braves then good for them and him. But I seriously doubt he would have in Boston.
It will be interesting to see where the Red Sox player payroll ends up this year. Not sure they are done spending. I’ve been thinking they may have an offer to Montgomery and are waiting on that before making other moves.
Player payroll per Spotrac:
2021: $211.6M
2022: $235.8M
2023: $223.8M
2024: $189.4M so far
I think Red Soxes are punting the season. They got a lot of youth in the wings. Reducing salary to. It’s almost as if they are getting ready to go juan guy next offseason.
I would love to see Soto on the Red Sox, but it is hard for me to see it happening. If the Red Sox don’t like Boras’ asking price for Montgomery, they won’t like his asking price for Soto. My biggest concern about Soto is maybe he is not really the age he says he is.
Montgomery had a big post season. He is a year removed from being traded for a 4th outfielder. The Soxes are gonna give him Nola money. He is a 2 yr/35m pitcher at most.
I think the Red Sox may overpay a bit on the AAV, but I think the number of years is the most important thing. Enjoy the O’s. They are set up really well.
Our GM Cashman is a tool so that trade for a fourth outfielder shouldn’t be used as measuring stick.
I think it’s just Henry is done spending. He got his big wins, now the team is just a money maker. Boston is one of those teams where you can have consecutive losing seasons without a worrying drop in attendance. He wants to be moderately competitive while being cheap.
Could be, but I think they are capable of being very competitive if they spend between $200M and the first luxury tax threshold.
All – In theory, two big SPs and a 3B could make them a playoff contender but they can’t fire Cora or move Devers so they have no shot at anything until they fix the biggest broken pieces. Money doesn’t matter. I keep telling you it’s talent that matters and right now there is no proven talent on the Red Sox. They have a solid DH but he’s killing their defense by playing 3B. No other hitter is all-star quality. They have no SPs that are all-star quality and Jansen is all-star quality but they won’t have the opportunities to get him saves like when he was in LA. He needs to pitch well and get traded for a key prospect at the deadline.
This team is no longer in a position to compete in 2024. They are simply too talent depleted to make the playoffs.
“right now there is no proven talent on the Red Sox”
===================================================
You lose me when you say something obviously false like that.
All – Obviously false? I’m confused. Who is the all-star on the Red Sox other than Devers and he’s a one-dimensional player who truly is just an all-star hitter.
I remember when we had many before Bloom but now we have Devers and Jansen and I personally don’t think Jansen will get enough opportunities to qualify in 2024 so Devers will likely be the lone all-star unless Devers’ downward trend continues in 2024 with no all-stars hitting around him to protect him or Devers fails and pouts which often happens too.
If you have proven talent then please list the players!!!
Catcher is bad, 1st base has ONE good year, 2nd base has no good years and he’s pre-arb 1, SS was good half a decade ago but not lately, 3B is the lone all-star but worst fielder in history, LF is O’Neill and he could be a long shot to be an all-star or he could suck like the last two years, Duran has upside like Casas to become an all-star but only has ONE good year, Rafaela to me has all-star potential but he doesn’t even have ONE good year and Yoshida is an over-rated and over paid import that is being used incorrectly by Cora.
The pitchers don’t include Sale who had all-star credentials and there is no Nate anymore so Jansen is the lone pitching stand-out. The young guns have potential but they haven’t arrived yet to be considered all-stars.
If my statement is false who is the talent I missed? I am open minded. Did I completely miss an all-star on the Red Sox Roster? Or is this simply a harsh pill to swallow?
The Soxes have a few good pieces. A few more in the minors. I liked the trade of Sale for them. Another young piece they got back. I think there is a plan. This going out and spending money on FAs each year can only take you so far.
What is happening in Baltimore is scaring other teams. I’m not saying that as a Homer either.
Jack 19 = You must identify the good pieces it’s not enough to vaguely suggest they have good pieces because they don’t have good pieces. At best, they have some young talent provided by DD that could turn into all-stars. That’s it right now. Bloom destroyed the roster and Breslow has done NOTHING to fix it!!
Baltimore sucked and got great draft spots and made the most of them. Boston sucked under Bloom and he did a crap job with those improved drafting spots so Boston doesn’t have the bright future it should have had considering Bloom tanked the team.
The Boston roster simply lacks talent. Yes, it has a few upside players but there is a LOT of wasted money on Devers, Story, Yoshida, Giolito, Jansen and even guys like Martin and O’Neill. Bad contracts everywhere will hurt this organization for years and years. There is no light at the end of the tunnel until ownership admits to their mistakes and is willing to provide payroll over the CAP to FIX things. If Breslow can dump ANY of the bad contracts that would be great but since he totally botched the Sale deal, asking him to unload players is a bad idea since he has no clue how to do it effectively. $17MM to watch Sale have a great year in ATL is a complete BONEHEAD move. Grissom isn’t an all-star in the making, he’s a league average or slightly above league average future player who cost Boston $17MM like a near all-star player might cost. Bad decisions, that’s all we are getting from Breslow and that’s all we got with Bloom.
The upside is we get to see a few of DD’s picks develop into all-stars, otherwise, the next five seasons are a bust and Breslow doesn’t have the skill set to fix things.
The thing is with Devers is his contract is he is actually worth the money if he only produces at a 4 war level. If I remember correctly 1 WAR is valued at about 8Mil.
Duran and Casas good players to build around. Mayer and Teel about ready. Crawford took a big step forward and Bello was decent.
The trade for Sale was a great move. Management was realistic. Sale is not the pitcher he was. The Red Sox are not contending. To get anything of value and at a real position of need was a great move.
I can understand the frustration as a fan, but given that they won 4 titles in last 20 years. A few bad years where at least they aren’t embarrassing. To build a better tomorrow is better than throwing money at what was best a mediocre FA class. Just pray they don’t sign Montgomery.
Will each AL East team get swept in the playoffs for the third year in a row? I can’t believe that could happen three years in a row. No Way!
I just cant see the yanks winning the division. 3 stars is not gonna cut it.
The rays cant be ignored as they always find a way, although their SP is gonna hurt.
The O’s will be good, but will take a step back with the injuries.
The jays will be like last year more or less, depending on Vlad and Varsho’s success, and i think that their SP will carry them.
The red sox are not quite there because they have a lot of holes.
1-BALTIMORE
2-TORONTO
3-TAMPA BAY
4-YANKEES
5-BOSTON
Yankees
Thinking you can consistently beat the projections is foolish
I think any 3 of the O’s, Rays, Jays, and Yankees have a legit shot of making the playoffs. Trades,injuries, hot and cold streaks and the like will determine the finishing order.
The Yankees at 94 what a joke. !
In which direction?
O’s are on the verge of having a terrifying lineup of bros that look like they just came from the rager over at Delta house. Injuries come out of nowhere and everyone knows they won’t be able to keep these guys in a few years, but they look good right now.
Here are team win totals, by projection system: PECOTA, DraftKings, FanGraphs
NY 94.7 93.5 88.2
BAL 86.2 90.5 83.7
TOR 88.6 86.5 83.3
TB. 86.9 84.5 85.6
BOS 79.2 79.5 79.7
ignorant – Clearly there is a bias in the rankings. NO WAY Boston has the talent TODAY to put up 79 wins.
Two reasons they won’t make 79:
1 – Less talent (JT loss is huge)
2 – Tougher schedule – more games against middle of the road teams and fewer games versus bad teams. The AL East schedule is primarily in Sept and will happen when they have long been eliminated so the games will be meaningless to them and very meaningful to the 4 teams contending.
Without further additions, 66 is the magic number. 12 games worse than 2023 because the pitching is weaker and the hitting is weaker and the defense is still horrific with Devers at 3B.
Each of the estimation programs minimize variance from the mean. Just like observing Football predictions that center around a 21-21 score these win predictions have a biased mean as their starting point. The mean wins for the four AL East teams that are competitive should be 94 wins so each of the four will vary from 100 to 88 wins. BAL should be at 100, NY at 97, TOR and TB at 88 to 91 and BOS at 66.
Hey TF, I thought it was peculiar/funny? that all three projection systems have 79 wins for Boston. Maybe they are also assuming Boston grabs a Montgomery or trades for a Cease? I think 66 is way too low however. Their offense is looking Jim Dandy to me…but I suppose Boston always hits at Fenway, right? Seems like my Mariners get bombed out 12-2 every single game there; it’s the Haunted Hall of Horrors. Do you remember that double header two summers ago when Story hit a grand slam and (I think) two other homeruns that day? Anyway you guys pick up another starter and can definitely get on board with 79 wins. Cheers!!!!
The Yankees with Soto will be the best team. Baltimore will remain the most interesting team, but they did not improve their pitching enough to be the best.
O’s 1st place and going away, by at least 8 wins.
Games have to be played. Orioles have the talent and youth. They are hungry and will run away with the AL East. Look for Holliday to win ROY.
That would be great. But Lankford and White both are going to have their say!
Mercenary – Holliday got pushed off SS. That says volumes about what the Orioles think of him. Henderson was a 3B who got moved to SS and Holliday was supposed to be their SS of the future. He either has a issue we don’t know about or BAL needs some help in their front office.
Meanwhile, Texas has two guys as good or better than Holliday. Both could start for the reigning baseball champs along with Garcia in the Ranger outfield. Also, there are some decent pitchers who might join the race for AL ROY and a couple of guys in CLE who could join the race as well. Too much talent to suggest one guy has it locked up, especially when he can’t hold his own position within his organization..
Gunnar was primarily a SS for his entire life before last season. After the first half he took over SS from Mateo, who had played excellently at SS in 2022. Gunnar is just a far better SS than Holliday. Good chance he’ll win a couple of GGs at Shortstop.
Gunner was a great defensive SS last year. You think there is a major problem if the #1 SS prospect in baseball in 2023 beats out the 2024 #1 SS prospect in baseball? All that means is the Orioles have more SS talent then they know what to do with.
Holliday is not a SS. He has a weak arm and can’t backhand balls, forcing him to circle them to catch them on his left foot. Not to say he can’t improve but Gunnar is the far superior defensive SS at the most demanding position, so you keep him there. Aces in their places! And this is from someone who was constantly banging the drum for a month before the draft for the Orioles to draft Holliday over Jones and Johnson and Collier and Green and Lee. Holliday is going to be one of the best hitters in the majors. If he can battle 2B to a draw, he’ll be a perennial MVP candidate. But the Orioles front office isn’t so foolish as to take a GG candidate off of SS just because they picked a defensively inferior SS at #1. Westburg was a SS too – defensively more sound than Holliday – but nobody in their right mind wants to move Gunnar off of SS for JW.
Sadly, I think Evan Carter will win ROY, because he”ll play all season. Looks like JH may start in AAA for $$ reasons, though that’s not decided yet.
For the extra year of team control. Not for “$$ reasons”; he’ll make the MLB minimum as a rookie either way.
$$ referred to future costs. By keeping him down they can finagle an extra year.
I don’t think it will affect “future costs” in dollars because he will earn about the same (adjusted for inflation) amount of money from the Orioles. Then he will become a Free Agent. It’s really all about the team control side. The Rangers might do the same with Wyatt Langford. Banking on the extra year of team control is a better gamble than thinking your player will definitely win ROY.
Remember he doesn’t have to win, just be top two.
I think he should play from day one if he’s ready and damn the future expense.
If he starts in AAA – like you think – there will be no pick added even if he wins ROY.
The AL East is hard to predict for several reasons:
1 – They Yankees always find ways to under perform and some years the under performing doesn’t hurt their standings it just leads to an early departure from the playoffs.
2 – Baltimore is trending upward and their farm system keeps giving them huge gifts so will they regress or keep ascending? Hard to say.
3 – Toronto has huge talent that can’t put it together. Will that change in 2024? Not likely.
4 – Always the first team to shake your head at because their performance usually exceeds their talent. They lost a lot of talent BUT they use smoke and mirrors and have for years. Their regular season will keep them in contention and then a first round exit in the playoffs is likely.
5 – They simply suck. The 2018 talent is all gone except Devers and he’s killing the pitching staff with his defense and the clubhouse with his selfish attitude. The team lacks leadership AND more importantly talent. DEAD LAST by a large distance.
So I believe the season will end as:
1 – Baltimore
2 = New York
3 – Tampa Bay
4 – Toronto
5 – A distant last BOSTON RED SOX
Boston will earn a top 8 draft pick in 2025 and hopefully Breslow will be fired and replaced along with Cora so the team can find a REAL GM with experience who isn’t shackled with Cora.
Gee, how.about giving Breslow an opportunity before discarding him? He has had one off season to assess the system.
Sounds reasonable to me
1 – Baltimore
2 – Tampa Bay
3/4 – Toronto/New York coin flip
5 Boston
Usually these kind of polls are filled with delusional Boston fans. This year, it seems that the Yankees fans are the truly delusional ones.
They’re not good enough to compete for the top in this division.
KingTiger – Just curious, is there a reason other than you like them for the Rays to finish that high. I haven’t found a reason to be optimistic about their chances nor pessimistic. Status quo can get them into the playoffs with a quick exit. If you have a reason for optimism please share it.
Well we have won 4 WS in last 20 years. So yea. Call it delusional my friend
Baltimore
Tampa
Toronto
Red Sox
Yankees
I will be really disappointed because I want to see the Yankees swept in the playoffs.
Melch – As much as we all like what you suggested it probably will take major injuries to Judge and Soto or Cole to finish behind Boston.
Orioles win 107 games and the next big bullpen find is Wandisson Charles… book it!
I’ve been saying the same thing about him. Huge diamond.
this division is easier to predict by starting at the bottom and putting the Red Sox where they belong.
As a Yankee fan feels good to get that one right at least.,
Yankee – You guys are all over that participation trophy again!!! And it’s only going to cost about $150MM more than the guys going longer in the playoffs!! I guess in your world, that’s better than last place. To me, they both suck equally.
A true Red Sox would pay good money to be better than the Yankees no matter where we end up in the division.
To say otherwise gives me doubt about your Red Sox nation credentials.
I remember True Yankee fans not worrying about where Boston would end up and be more in tune with winning championships… let me guess you became a Yankee fan in … say late 90”s????
Yankee – But we don’t pay the money and that’s the problem with the Red Sox. If Red Sox Nation controlled the purse strings we would finish ahead of the Yankees because we wouldn’t need to spend more than you, just enough to be competitive and that’s not happening so rather than get upset we sit back and watch the Yankees squander all that money and still end up with the same number of rings as we do when ownership IS NOT trying!!!
oimtiant – GREAT POINT. The Yankees never worried when they outspent everyone by lots and won rings every other year back in the old days when the Yankees were a financial dynasty but that ended in 1962, 62 years ago so the living Yankee fans probably don’t remember what that is like. Instead, they see their team outspend everyone and no ring comes of it. It’s got to be hard to be such an unproductive organization for that many fans. Big bucks but no rings. Great motto!!!
My avatar picture should tell you how far back I go and a championship is 7+ months away what do you expect me to do during that time, If I cant razz Red Sox fans a bit.
psssssssssttttt!!
We never have worried,
The only measuring stick is championships to which we are Secretariat to the Red Sox Sham
Yankees.. love the horse racing theme!!! While that may have been true then … lately the Redsox are the Alan Jerkins to your Yankees Secretariat… as for your avitar … yes I know you’re been around… like you say … good ribbing!!! ( little known fact… secretariat fastest Derby at that time… second fastest??????? SHAM…..
Yankee – Talking about 62 and earlier as if it’s relevant is all Yankee fans can do. It’s like bragging about being Roman because of Ceasar accomplished. The Celtics dominance is less OLD than the Yankee dominance yet we aren’t thumping our chests about 60 year old exploits. Why? Because we have had many more recent ones and You don’t have that.
The ancient past is all you have and it was purchased not earned!!! Oh well, maybe sometime in the next decade you won’t be eliminated in the early rounds of the playoffs and can give the enormous fan base some life support!!! hahahaha
Good luck with that. You still have Cashman and Boone so it’s NOT GOING TO HAPPEN!!!!
oimtiant – The Secretariat reference is silly. Sham aligns with Yankee history because he was the expensive horse that got all the publicity. That’s the essence of Yankee baseball!!! Yep 100 years and counting. All show no substance.
so you didn’t have history classes when you went to school.
Let’s take down all the championship banners since they are all history, let’s plow under the hall of fame and build a parking lot.
I get Red Sox fan selective memory syndrome; it actually takes up an entire section in the medical books and why not, because even under hypnosis the only memory any Red Sox fan can dredge up is 84 years of futility during the same period that the Yankees ruled baseball and that you traded Babe Ruth, the greatest player of all time.
YOU TRADED BABE RUTH.!!!!!!
Now who would want to remember that.
Peace!
Yankee.. I can live that… but releasing Braiser last year was the biggest regret!!!
Yankee – Go look up what Mike Ditka said about living in the past. It so fits Yankee fans!!! hahahaha
OK, I’ll make it easy for you!!!
I don’t believe in living in the past. Living in the past is for cowards. If you live in the past, you die in the past.
Mike Ditka
1962 ended the dynasty.
As an Orioles fan, whenever the Red Sox and Yankees play, I root for the giant meteor.
But for once I must come down on the side of Boston. In 2019 they won. The Yankees didn’t. The Yankees haven’t in a while. Yes yes yes, I know it’s been even longer for the Orioles but that will change this year.
See you in September, because in October you’re going to be on the couch.
🙂
Mark McGwire is that you?
back in my youth believe it or not for a short period when the yankees were really bad, I was an Oriole fan.
Lost my allowance because I rooted for them against the 69 Mets. Happy when they beat the Reds
Boog Powell, both Robinsons, Bellanger and that 1971 pitching staff of four 20 game winners,,,meng!!!
How did those teams lose to the Mets and blow a 3-1 lead to the Pirates.
But eventually George bought the team and brought a lot of us back into the fold.
John Henry has 345 family members? Damn.
Orioles are loaded with a question mark on the mound. Cite 2023 numbers all you want, repeat performance(s) is the question.
Yankees can’t stay healthy. If they can they can win the division.
Tampa seems to find a way to be a factor but their pitching staff is not all the way ready to compete.
Red Sox are a mediocre team in a strong division. They can’t decide if they want to compete or not.
Blue Jays are leaning on pitching, defense and a 3-run homerun to win games. Their only solution is hoping their top 4 starters start 30 games each.
It’s Baltimore’s division to win, and lose.
Isn’t this the same group that predicted Os would win 78 games last year and Jays would win the division?
You wrote “Full throttle”
AHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA
Oh man
You prefer the duck boat comment?
This story, the likes of which I see often on this site, was informative if a bit unimaginative in use of language 🙂
If the Yankees can stay healthy. The al East is theirs.
92jays – So are you also predicting a Cy Young for Sale?
It’s very weird that Devers wasn’t mentioned in the Boston’s analysis. The top player being left out of their forecast, never seen it before.
Rays – Devers is their top paid player not their top player. That’s a very significant distinction that will haunt Boston for a decade.
Orioles
Yankees
Rays
Blue Jays
Red Sox (full throttle…in reverse, apparently)
The Boston Red Sox said no one
Fine I’ll say it… Redsox win the east!!!( in 85 jimmy the Greek picked against the Chicago Bears in every playoff game including SB) so Braiser the Czech is going for it!!!
I don’t pay much attention to DraftKings, but except for the really dark 100 loss seasons, PECOTA has underguessed the Orioles’ win total annually. FG not as long a record but a similar pattern.
The Orioles were a 90 win team on paper last year who had a little luck (1 run, 2 run, and extras record will regress) but improved on the field overall with adding Burnes, younger players on the upside.. I am guessing 94-68 as div favorites followed closely by the Yankees who did more to improve their team from where it was particularly with Soto, then a half step behind the Rays (who had a net loss) and Jays (ran in place and I think had a bit of bad luck last year)..
Its the years that no one expects the Red Sox to do much that they outperform. I have them 5th but agree with the article, they could very well also clear the .500 mark.
At least we’re past that full decade (’00s) when the Yankees or Sox were clear favorites and in the playoffs 90% of the time, the Jays .500 and the Rays and Orioles might win 70. The AL East is much more interesting these days.
Nice post…
Specious claim about the 2023 Orioles being a “90-win team on paper.” For those who are stuck on their Pythag of 94 wins, the team got better as the season progressed. In fact their 2nd half Runs for/Runs against prorates to a 103 win season.
The projection systems quoted in the article do not account for depth. This division is a two team race between the Rays and Orioles. The depth that the Rays and Orioles have protect them from injury and underperformance much more than any other team in the division. Yankees don’t have the depth to get through 162 game schedule and will more than likely finish 4th again.
The Orioles have a lot of position depth but not pitching depth. A key injury or two in that rotation could derail the Orioles.
Yeah but the Yankees have worse pitching depth than the Orioles. Not to mention the Yankees could also get derailed by position player injuries. Not to mention the Orioles also have depth to overcome regression due to poor performance whereas the Yankees are counting on bounce backs from older players and have no back up plans if that fails.
I’m just saying that the Orioles have a thin rotation I agree the Yankees are likely to be even more vulnerable with depth issues but with Bradish out now for who knows how long another injury or two in the rotation could and probably would cause significant regression in their record. They have a lot of positional talent but the question is would they move the talent to get Cease or the like if Burnes or Rodriguez goes down that’s all I’m saying. If the rotation remains healthy and Bradish comes back sooner rather than later I think the Orioles likely win the division pretty handily.
Bruin1012 – A quick fact check says BAL has the following SP pitching depth:
1 – Burnes – STUD
2 – Bradish – Injury could cost him the season
3 – Grayson Rodriguez – Young stud improving
4 – Means – Returning ace – Stuff should come back
5 – Kremer – Very reliable and a SP3 on many teams
6 – Wells – Another reliable SP who could be as high as SP3
7 – Irvin – Former As ace and accomplished SP4 or SP5
8 – Zimmerman – Former SP5 is now depth
9 – Teheran – Accomplished starter could be SP3 or SP4
That’s a lot of depth in my opinion and it blows away NYY, TOR and TB from a depth perspective. TB if healthy would be the deepest but they have many injuries that have much uncertainty to how long they will last.
If the Orioles Achilles Heel is their depth then they should win easily. Play the what if game with the Yankees, what if Cole goes down? Stick a fork in them. What if Gausman goes down? Stick a fork in them. What if Eflin goes down? Stick a fork in them. Suggesting that Burnes getting hurt is a bigger impact than losing the #1 starter on their competitors is just ridiculous. BAL has more depth and could handle the blow far better than the comparable blow impacting NYY, TB or TOR.
With Bradish,BAL wins going away. Without him, other teams have a chance to challenge but are still unlikely to surpass the team with by far the most talent.
Imo Burnes and Rodriguez are the key for Baltimore they stay healthy and effective it’s Baltimores division to lose but if one of them go down it will be a big blow. The thing is Baltimore has the prospect depth to add another high end pitcher if this happens. I’m not sold on Means he’s likely to come back but he’s no ace he is more a mid rotation arm and most of the other guys are back of the rotation arms imo.
KD have you seen Houck this spring he looks great he’s noticeably stronger his velocity is way up tons of sink he looks really good I’m expecting big things out of him.
Bruin1012 – Let’s hope the pitch calling is improved and they change the elevation of his pitches more. If he works up and down with the fastball, he’s really tough to hit in the first inning or the 7th inning. Predictability is always on the pitch caller not the pitcher.
He wasn’t good last year he’ll be the first to tell you that his fastball velocity was down the sink on his fastball wasn’t nearly as much but he looks good this spring. The other guy who really looks good with increased velocity and noticeably bigger legs is Crawford the ball is really coming out of his hand well.
In a sense they don’t need pitching depth because they can just go out and trade for as much as they want, so you’re comment although true, is moot.
Until Snell & Monte sign any predictions are based on a total lack of info.
jmi
“Until Snell & Monte sign any predictions are based on a total lack of info.”
What? No
We now know why Monty and Snell are not signed. The Wheeler deal creates a new plateau for the elite pitchers. I thought deGrom and Scherzer were anomalies but instead they are the new normal for elite pitchers. Those that THINK they are elite will want that level of pay and probably won’t get it so Snell especially is likely to not sign for a long time. I am curious what the expectation is for Monty since he’s not close to Wheeler in talent so is Boras asking for near Wheeler money for Monty.
If Boras is asking for near Wheeler money then Monty won’t be signing for a long time. Wheeler only signed a three year extension so DD paid a premium for that. I’m guessing that Snell now wants at least mid 30’s on a three year contract. It will be interesting to see if Monty settles for a shorter term contract and also how he pitches after a career high in innings pitched and then tacking on a lot more intense innings in the postseason. I think he will have a difficult year in year one of his next contract especially since he’s also missing a lot of spring training. I’m sure he’s working out but there is no substitute for ramping up in spring training.
New York will win the division easily
As things stand, I think Baltimore will win the division. The Yankees have too many question marks. Judge is great, but he can only play one position at a time and he can’t pitch.
As someone else has said, you can never count out the Rays and Kevin Cash.
The only guarantee is that the Red Sox are going to finish last.
Who wins will depend upon injuries and depth. And Baltimore certainly has more depth than anybody else in the universe. Even if their pitching is awful they can just trade a couple of top prospects and solve that problem if need be.
After all, they’ve already done it once!