With Spring Training more than half over, here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on around the baseball world throughout the day today:
1. Spring Breakout rosters to be announced:
MLB’s Spring Breakout rosters are set to be announced this morning at 10am CT on MLB Network. The new event will see all 30 clubs participate in a prospect showcase during Spring Training with sixteen seven-inning exhibition games across a four day period from March 14-17. The Reds and Cardinals will each participate in two games, while the other 28 organizations will participate in one each. The exhibition will exclusively feature rookie-eligible players and are also set to showcase the automated ball-strike challenge system in certain games. MLB.com has additional details, including broadcast information for all thirty-two exhibition games.
2. Will Red Sox, Bello complete a deal?
As of yesterday, the Red Sox and Brayan Bello are reportedly in “advanced” talks regarding an extension that would keep Bello in Boston beyond the 2028 season, when his team control would otherwise expire. Bello, 25 in May, has made 41 appearances in the majors across the first two seasons of his career and owns a roughly league average 4.37 ERA with a solid 4.11 FIP in 214 1/3 career innings. Notably, the young right-hander led all Red Sox pitchers in both innings (157) and games started (28) during the 2023 campaign. Locking in a young pitching talent who can provide stability to a Boston rotation that has faced plenty of tumult in recent years could be a huge breath of fresh air for Red Sox fans, particularly in the wake of worrisome injury news regarding right-hander Lucas Giolito. Will a deal between the sides be finalized in the coming days?
3. State of the trade market:
While plenty of quality players remain available in free agency with just three weeks to go until Opening Day, there have been some recent indications that teams are beginning to transition from the offseason mentality of improving the roster toward preparing for the regular season in earnest, at least when it comes to the trade market. Often regarded as the offseason’s top trade candidate, White Sox right-hander Dylan Cease has yet to move, and Chicago brass recently indicated that they expect the 2022 AL Cy Young award finalist to start for the club on Opening Day with “nothing imminent” in terms of a trade for the righty.
Meanwhile, on the buy-side of the trade market, the Pirates have reportedly scaled back their efforts to add a starting pitcher via trade before the season begins. In addition to those reports, the rumor mill has gone quiet regarding some speculative trade candidates such as Shane Bieber, Jesus Luzardo, and Jonathan India in the weeks since camp began. That said, it’s still plausible to imagine trades coming together for players that have been pushed out of their previous roles on their club such as Harold Ramirez of the Rays or J.D. Davis of the Giants, the latter of whom MLBTR’s Anthony Franco discussed just last night.
Doubt the Reds trade India until he has a clean bill of health and is producing.
Put me in the “holding onto Cease into the season will ultimately prove to be a mistake” column.
The problem is that we will probably never know that answer, unless either he gets injured (bad) or the White Sox are competitive, he pitches well and they keep him (good). Otherwise we won’t know since we really haven’t heard of any actual trades the Sox turned down.
Apparently the Orioles offered the same package as what got Burnes tp the white sox for Cease (plus one unknown prospect). If they end up taking a lower price than the Burnes deal then they definitely hurt themselves by holding onto Cease.
Interesting if true, I hadn’t heard that one. 2 years of Cease is worth more than 1 year of Burnes. So yeah – if that was the best they got, it was a good risk imo to wait. Could regret it of course, but it was the right move.
Burnes is a better pitcher and cease’s numbers are trending down. He might have looked better with Baltimore’s d behind him, but it’s not clear cut that 2 years of Cease’s potential
Mediocrity (potential being the key word based on last year) is worth more than 1 year of Burnes’ more certain top of the line production. Either way, that trade foregone is a good measuring stick for ultimately grading the Sox front office on this issue.
Cease had a lower FIP, higher strike out rate, over all strike out number but his numbers are “trending down”. Hey, you know it takes more than one season to establish a trend don’t you? “Trending” is such a stupid overused saying. Another word constantly used out of context.
Hey drasco – you know whose numbers are ‘trending down’? Burnes FIP for the last 3 years is 1.63, 3.14, 3.81. Cease’s was 3.41, 3.10 and 3.72. 3 years ago Burnes won the Cy Young, 2 years ago Cease was 2nd. I’m thinking the 3 year trend favors Cease.
Also – both threw over 500 innings in that span and struck out the exact same number (677). That is – both have shown to be durable and have great stuff.
So yeah, I’d rather have 1 year of Burnes than 1 year of Cease.
But I’d rather have 2 years of Cease than 1 of Burnes, which is what their current situation is. And so would every team.
And Burnes is a top of the rotation ACE now and has been, while Cease hasn’t and is upped by unlimited analytics chatter of how good he really is and how good he will be……put up of shut up…Burnes doesn’t need analytics hype.
You started off with a valid point but lost it.
Analytics have their place but they are not the end all be all, especially single stats like FIP. FIP has a lot of value but it doesn’t take skill into consideration. The skill to initiate weak contact but it kind of sort of makes up for it by not having to take defense into play.
Cease has shown everyone how well he can pitch, TOR upside but he pitches in front of a terrible defensive team and a coaching/front office that is weak on their analytical knowledge and game planning. Burns pitched in front of a better defense, at least up the middle and the Crew are fantastic at game planning.
Burnes is the better pitcher too. I appreciate the WS desire to maximize the market. There are teams today that are probably Contending (And pretending ) Teams that are more desperate than six weeks ago. Perhaps one of them will blink and cough up more prospect talent than what the Orioles gave the Brewers. I’m skeptical though. Cease is just not as good.
There really are no rumors. There never were. What changed is trades are announced before finalization where at some time in the past when there were rumors they were not announced until finalized.
Rumors do not exist anymore.
Big Hurt: “we won’t know since we really haven’t heard of any actual trades the Sox turned down.”
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Not really true. Several sources are saying White Sox are asking for a lot, if Cease starts out the year badly (which. I think, is what king floch is implying) White Sox will get a lot less.
If youre selling an antique Corvette and no one is meeting youre asking price, and you get in a crash with it, you certainly arent getting the same price now.
There are no player names.
Rumors once had names because the trade was already done.
They stopped waiting because of fan backlash on trades that had a clear loser.
The wanted a lot from the reds allegedly
LOL – ‘a lot’. Sounds like you are a true analytics guy. If they trade him later will you then make the determination, using the vast data resources, if they got an equal ‘lot’ at the deadline?
My point is that the only way to compare is to know what they were offered, and we don’t. You agree that we don’t know what they were offered, right?
Maybe should have only asked for ‘a little’. Or a ‘medium amount.’ And the fact that these got a bunch of likes is just mind-blowing.
NO ONE IS ARGUING that the White Sox were reasonable in their requests… we don’t know. But we also have no way of knowing that ‘it was a mistake to hold onto him’, since we don’t know what they were offered.
Good lord people, you can’t do a before/after if you don’t know the before.
@KingFloch. I agree with you 100%. If he so much as gets a hang nail or even just burps on the mound the White Sox will see his market dry up to next to nothing. He is only a rental anyway. They should take the best offer and run.
He is much better than he pitched last year. Teams will get more desperate as they get injuries. So many teams are in contention nowadays. It is a calculated risk. It may backfire. But teams will definitely pay up if he’s decently. There are still free agents available. When we are 2 months in and there are no options teams will be desperate. Perhaps his market is held up by Snell/Montgomery. Perhaps a deal is coming. Who knows. Hopefully they target players they want and don’t just make a deal to get highly rated prospects just for the sake of having them. I can’t entirely blame them with the market held up.
Also, CHW actually worked on getting better defensively. Depending on their roster, having DeJong/Nicky Lopez up the middle with Maldanado behind the plate and Dominic Fletcher in CF will work wonders already, if nothing else than hiding Eloy’s glove from him. He had a career-high in BABIP meaning he was unlucky, while his strand-rate was its lowest (in a full season), which defense and luck can help with. (Compare his LOB% of 69.4 to Blake Snell’s 86.7% which was huge considering he led the league in BB/9…and won the Cy).
This is definitely correct RunDMC, with the exception of Gold Glover Luis Robert in CF and Fletcher most likely in right (a MASSIVE upgrade from Eloy/Sheets/Colas last year).
Ah yes, forgot about that one. Hat tip
DeJong at SS is not any kind of upgrade, no matter how bad Anderson was last year. And Nicky Lopez is the paragon of stopgap mediocrity.
Pale Hosers will be the second or third worst team in the AL.
If you don’t think DeJong is an upgrade on the defensive side, which is what RunDMC was talking about, then you clearly haven’t watched Tim Anderson play defense before.
Nicky Lopez was elite defensively last season. We aren’t talking about anything but defense. One could certainly argue, however, that he is worthy of a starting job on defense alone.
The problem is most fans aren’t good at analyzing defense with their eyes. Players can make very impressive plays that a better defender would make look easy. Sure, they can sometimes tell when Andrelton Simmons is the SS but with most players the fans hardly notice unless they make lots of errors. I grew up watching Furcal and people would always say he made so many errors when he was an elite SS in reality. Meanwhile Jeter was winning gold gloves and most fans bought it.
And then you have Swanson who coming up really struggled with routine plays, but would have occasional incredible (OAA) plays that would make you forget his lapses, which he’s worked out in the last 2-3 years to become the def wiz he is now.
Hopefully MLB doesn’t fumble this showcase and makes the games easily available for viewing…
Playboy channel to first choose what they want based on uniform transparency.
I want a showcase of all the MLB all-female dance teams & cheer squads.
And You had to be weird…..
Sorry I’ll keep it to baseball
I fully expect some prospect to get a major injury during one of these pointless exhibitions
I mean it isn’t more risky than a minor league game and the minor league games are arguably just as pointless as the exhibition games.
I agree with Os1995.
Several injuries were reported before games even started. Players need to tune-up, predicting an injury right now is like predicting a car crash at rush hour sometime in the next month. They’re going to happen regardless of whether they’re playing ST games or not.
How is it any different than a normal spring training exhibition game?
How is it any different than Spring Training games (which are all exhibition games)?
How is it different than any random WBC game?? Do you think Altuve & Edwin Diaz would have been injured the exact same way last season had they only been playing regular Spring games instead? Highly doubtful.
So this prospect showcase is the same as the WBC? lol The WBC are not exhibition games.
So are you opposed to the all-star game too?
Its the same as any random ST game……
I was thinking the same thing…this is just the 6th inning of any regular ST game, minus some middling minor league pitcher being on hand to take a pounding if things go south for any of the regular pitchers.
I’m probably in the minority, but I would wait a little before extending Bello (and/or Casas). While both look promising, Bello is lauded for a solid first half of a season while Casas had a great second half. They’re both locked up for a good amount of time. Why commit before getting a viable sample size?
I said something similar in another thread. His strikeout numbers are very low as well for someone with his stuff, although they were good in the minors so that can turn around. Obviously they are taking a risk and hoping that signing him now BEFORE the viable sample size will get them a bargain, which it will if he is really good.
Theoretically, the longer you wait the more expensive they get. Pedro truly loves the kid and I’m thinking his evaluation when added to others is a factor along with the club looking for a positive response from fans who deserve more.
Bello’s numbers are reasonably comparable to Pedro Martinez’ numbers in his first full season as a starter (1994). If Bello could be even half as dominant as Pedro could be on any given night it’s well worth the extension
It’s funny coincidence this “extending Bello” talk appears suddenly the day after the announcement of Gioluto’s injury. It’s as if someone is running interference. Wasn’t there similar bad news the Sox needed to pivot from when they suddenly announced the Devers extension ???
There is a risk extending Bello considering he’s not going anywhere through 28. That said, he’s perhaps one player worth that risk providing it’s a least somewhat team friendly. Player set for long term, team gets affordable talent.
Even if its a 10 year deal at this point all you are doing is getting cost certainty by buying out his arbitration years and maybe 4 or 5 free agent years depending on if the new deal starts this season or next. At the very least you’re buying the good years up front and not paying for the declining years at the end
I assume the Bello extension will be for like 8 years/$25M at the high end or something? For a guy with his very limited experience and pedestrian numbers, seems like a weird thing to do. Plenty of guys like Bello go through arbitration and on to free agency with no fanfare and nominal salaries, so I can’t inside this would make sense unless a really low total and a really high number of years was being discussed.
That dollar amount seems very low without easily obtainable incentives. There is also a slim possibility that he signs what you proposed without him being able to reach agency by age 30.
I agree with MLB Fanatic. The 25M number is way too low. His 1.6 WAR is worth about 12.8M/yr on the open market. For an 8 year deal you would be getting 2 pre arb years (1M each), 3 arb years (40%, 60%, 80% market value = 23M total), and 3 FA years (12.8M each year). The fair market value of an 8 yr extension would be 63M assuming he maintains a similar level of production over the next 8 years.
Bello is also young and may still improve some more the 63M for 8 years may be on the low side for the extension since the model the Red Sox use may project future improvements (which is likely the main motivator of the extension anyway)
Qs1995 Low side indeed. At 24 he can be projected to improve between 25 and 27 or 28, plus a salary inflation component, not to mention pitching WAR is probably now more expensive than position player war. 8/78m for Bello wouldn’t surprise me at all.
While a lot of attention is going to be paid to Snell and Montgomery, there are still a few player out there with some value who may be available cheaply for a low-mid revenue team to take a flyer on (flippable at trading deadline). One or more of those guys might be the sleepers.
It really is disturbing how many teams just are actively choosing to not compete and put the best product they can on the field. All this prospect hugging and refusing to pay free agents is not good for the sport. For example, I don’t mean a team like the A’s should sign Blake Snell. But a team like the Marlins made the playoffs just last year and have done literally nothing when they could easily sign a Clevinger and Tommy Pham for instance and that could drastically help them compete. As a fan, if my team is not putting their best foot forward to win, why would I support them with my hard earned money?
The RSN shuffle is a reason. Another is a byproduct of expanded playoffs. A team only needs to be about five to six wins above .500 to see the postseason. If you’re a middling team by the trade deadline and decide to make a playoffs push, upgrades are always available and teams can slice payroll expenditure in half with prospect capital.
@Jake Biggar…”It really is disturbing”…The hyperbole is very strong in your comments, Jake. The last 5 years in MLB has seen at least a DOZEN record contracts and some of the biggest contracts in sports history: Machado(350M+), Tatis(330M), Harper(300M+), Trea Turner 300M+, Lindor(300M+), Betts(280M+), Gerrit Cole(320M+) and now Ohtani(700M). It’s been a BOOM TOWN for players the last several years and the only one having issues getting clients signed to market rate contracts is Scott Boras. There’s so many other more important things in life to be “disturbed” about, than yet another celebrity athlete getting yet another $300M+ contract, Jake.
Condescension noted. The numbers you cite are the top 1%.. The average–AVERAGE–mlb salary last year was $4m.. Jake’s got a point.
“Condescension noted”…So now “condescension” is pointing out the actual facts?…And you didn’t cite anything at all. And I forgot to mention Yamamoto’s 320M+ contract. Feel free to continue trying to convince everyone the sky’s falling, because that’s what people like you do, right Hubert?
@Jake There aren’t really that many teams though not wanting to contend/not paying for free agents: I have Rockies, White Sox, A’s, Pirates, Nationals, Marlins.
You’re preaching to the choir. I’m a CLE fan, and this winter has been the cheapest I’ve ever seen them. Yeah, they like to blame that on the Bally situation, but their biggest splash was wasting $4M on Austin Hedges who has the offensive prowess of a late inning relief pitcher. They want to believe they’ll fill their needs internally, but now we’re talking about a minor league system that ranks 22nd out of 30. There are no run producers in the pipeline, and that’s exactly what they need, but they won’t spend a penny to get it in free agency. What’s the solution? They’ll just struggle to score runs, and that’s that.
That George Valera looked like he could be a good young hitter for CLE but has he gotten over his injuries yet?
Toward the end of spring training, a lot of guys out of options are usually moved if a team has no room for them.
Why can’t the automated strike zone system detect the actual strike zone of the batter? Is the technology that bad that it can’t detect that information? Are we still living in the 1700s?
Looking at how society is going backwards the last few years, we might be still living in the 1700s.
How is society backwards
Who replaced Harold Ramirez?
Do spring training Stats mean anything? Any correlation!
No for pitchers imho especially early in ST when they’re working on execution and pitch count build up rather than results.
I’m watching to see what the Rays do – they’re predictably unpredictable in that they always deal players due a big raise for younger and cheaper. The word is they’re offering Ramirez but won’t be surprised if they zag & flip Paredes (if Junior is ready) for Miller in Seattle or Cabrera in Miami…
Spring breakout is a bad idea. They already have minor leagues, arizona fall, futures games, winter ball, spring training to “showcase” themselves
This is manfred trying to attract more fans, the desperate loser
Someone is going to get hurt guaranteed!!