As Opening Day draws ever closer, here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on around the baseball world throughout the day today:
1. Where will Davis land?
The Giants reportedly placed third baseman J.D. Davis on waivers over the weekend, likely signaling the end of his tenure in San Francisco. The soon-to-be 31-year-old slugger appeared to be an odd man out when third baseman Matt Chapman signed in San Francisco earlier this month, and now he’ll be available to the league’s 29 other clubs for the cost of his $6.9MM salary in 2024. Since breaking out with the Mets during the 2019 season, Davis has slashed a solid .268/.352/.443 in 528 games split between New York and San Francisco while spending time at both infield corners as well as left field and DH. At least in the eyes of Statcast, Davis made strides with his defense at the hot corner in 2023, garnering +5 Outs Above Average after posting negative marks in that category throughout his career prior. The Brewers, Cubs, and Mariners are among the handful of contenders that could make sense for Davis if they’re willing to assume the full freight of his salary.
2. Giolito’s second opinion:
Red Sox right-hander Lucas Giolito, who signed a two-year, $38.5MM contract this offseason — the second season of which is a player option — could miss the entire 2024 season after being diagnosed with a partial UCL tear and flexor strain earlier in camp. Surgery is on the table, as is common with UCL injuries, but Giolito was slated to receive a second opinion from Dr. Jeff Dugas today before making any final decisions on how to treat his injury. He’s clearly looking at a long absence regardless, but today’s opinion could determine which type of surgery is recommended (e.g. Tommy John surgery, internal brace surgery) or whether surgical intervention is required at all. Some players will go the rest-and-rehab route before going under the knife, as surgery is always a last resort, though it’s perhaps telling that manager Alex Cora has already publicly acknowledged the possibility of surgery.
3. When will the front-of-the-rotation southpaws sign?
Last week, agent Scott Boras indicated that new teams have begun to check in on his pair of southpaw clients, Blake Snell and Jordan Montgomery. The duo entered the winter as two of the top four starting pitching options on the market alongside Yoshinobu Yamamoto and Aaron Nola, though that hasn’t stopped both from lingering on the market even as Opening Day is now a matter of weeks away. Updates on the southpaws’ respective markets have been relatively few and far between, with Snell being loosely connected to the Angels over the weekend while Montgomery’s reported negotiations with the Red Sox hitting a snag over the lefty’s apparent desire for a seven-year pact. With the start of the regular season just around the corner, will either of the duo find a new home in the coming days?
Starting to think both Snell and Monty start the season as free agents
Does the compensation I believe is attached to Snell come off May 15th?
I think it’s draft day.
If that’s when the draft is yes. Maybe someone can give me an example where it worked out but honestly every time I’ve seen a pitcher wait out for the draft to end they are never as good as the year before
The draft is in July, and that’s when the draft picks go away.
Thank you all. For some reason May 15th stuck in my head and yes I do remember both my wedding anniversary and my wife’s birth date..
Roger Clemens used to wait towards mid-season to sign, at the end of his career. Not necessarily because of the draft pick association, but to shorten his season in preparation for a playoff run. He was pretty good, even at the end of his career.
I’m sure a lot of guys could be good at the end of their careers if they used Roger’s methods.
Gmen – Roger Clemens signed with the Astros on May 31st and pitched his first game June 22nd.
For that 2006 season he had a 2.30 ERA and 1.041 WHIP.
I definitely forgot about Clemens doing that at the tail end of his career. The two that always immediately pop into my head are Kimbrel and Keuchel
Gmen – Hill has talked about doing it this year, we will see about that one. He didn’t have very good numbers last season.
Neither of these guys is Roger Clemens or at the end of their career. Monty had his 1st real good season and Snell doesn’t go deep into games. Neither can expect to land anywhere until their price goes down along with length of contract.
dewey – Come on now, we all know it stuck in your head because it’s Dugie’s birthday.
Hill is only good for the first half of the season anyway, so doing so may be beneficial to him and any team that signs him
Rsox – I completely agree! He won’t run out of gas if he starts pitching midseason.
Lol. Who? A forgotten man already
Anyone remember 86 and Bruce Hurst? He always ran out of gas but that year, I believe he started in the beginning of July.
dewey – Okay I shoulda said Josh Beckett or George Brett. Haha!
I remember that season, Dewey, and your namesake leading off against Jack Morris to set the tone for the season. Hurst missed all of June and most of July with an injury, and I think that rest may have helped. He was solid April and May, too.
He sure wasn’t good pitching for the Savannah Bananas. Good old Roger was out there throwing batting practice fastballs. Even independent league hitters can crush those.
He had a little help from his friends too.
To be fair, Clemens is 61 years old
More teams are checking in on Monty and Snell. Sounds to me like they’re finally open to shorter contracts. Looks like Boras blinked first.
@avenger65 the thing I find the strangest is I have yet to see a team legitimately linked to both of them. Snell had primarily been the Angels, Giants and Yankees while Montgomery has been the Red Sox and Rangers.
Other teams are looking but I still think his preference is Boston with his wife’s residency situation. Memo to ownership, get it done before you overplay your hand.
Starting to think Snell and Monty need to face the fact long term deals for pitching is a anmoly in mlb and no longer the norm. To many blown out arms.
Meaning that, even if they sign soon, they won’t be fully up and running until May. Hope whoever signs them pro-rates their deal accordingly.
Three items, any news?
dewey – I think it’s HIGHLY likely Gio has the surgery. He has a guaranteed 2-year contract now (huge overpay BTW) therefore it’s the perfect time to have the surgery.
He’s not gonna wait until the offseason or next year.
Agreed Fever.
Boras severely over played his hand(s) Bellinger signed for a lot less, granted he did want to return to the Cubs, BUT Chapman also signed for a lot less. No reason to expect anything different for Snell/Montgomery.
Bryzz – Boras is a classic case of past success making him overconfident and downright arrogant. It happens often to many people in all facets of life. Because of past success they think they can continue to push the envelope, assuming what worked at times in the past would continue to work.
It’s also worth noting he’s in his 70’s now, therefore more apt to make blunders.
I know a guy named Jerry Kaptstein, he was the Boras of his time. He knew when to move on, Boras may be facing that same crossroad soon.
Boras has lost his fastball.
He hasn’t adapted to the pitch clock.
Like Kenny Rogers sang: you got to know when to hold em….know when to fold em. Are you listening Boras????
vinc – You know what’s funny about that?
Kenny Rogers (the pitcher) had Boras for his agent, but was so unhappy with him that he dumped Boras and become his own agent.
There is nothing more adorable to me than random fans criticizing Boras. I can’t stand him, he’s probably destroying the game but he is, without question, the absolute best of the best at what he does.
Cards – You know what’s freakin’ hilarious?
People who live in the past.
NOBODY is forever in their prime.
People age.
Their mental capacity declines.
Their physical abilities decline.
Boras is not a cartoon character that never ages, he’s a human being.
Even if he was still “the best”, that doesn’t mean he’s perfect. It doesn’t mean he doesn’t make mistakes.
Sheesh.
Fever…… just to add to your comment
Scott Bora$$ and Bill Belichick are a good example of what you are saying.
There’s living in the past and then there’s being an armchair quarterback criticizing what is the only household name in all of MLB agents. It’s just funny to me, nothing more, nothing less.
WAS until this season. This off-season has been an embarrassing disaster.
But he was the best.
@Fever you say it as though Boras is a one man operation. He is just the face of his business that has 80+ employees. They also employ some of the brightest and best agents in the business representing roughly 175 MLB players.
These portrayals of Boras and how he(actually his Corporation) operates are so ill conceived.
Yeah, but his philosophies methods I would think are company-wide. He has almost always gotten top dollar. Until now.
Aim high at the beginning. Take the medium at the end. Nothing risked. Nothing gained.
It’s not about less for Snell and Montgomery buzz,it’s about years my friend.
The Snell/Montgomery situation with Boras keeps reminding me of the butcher job he did with Stephen Drew. Overplayed his hand, Drew missed more than half a season and was never the same player.
Would like to see Davis land with Milwaukee or Seattle so he can still play every day. He’s a solid player who can help a team out.
Do you want to be getting ready to pitch in 2024 and work towards a championship or be a greedy pig
This is ridiculous
Greedy pig, please. Thanks!
Money in the bank. Allows you to be patient. At least he allows his arm/shoulder to rest up more.
Mmmm…greedy pig! Arrrrgggghhhh!
What’s ridiculous is the Orioles haven’t signed either or both pitchers. Considering the demands have fallen off a cliff for Snell and Montgomery already…
Snell is too volatile with results. Monty is not better then the os first 4 starters. It would be a too large expense for little gain over replacing their #5. Kremer is almost as good. Is you account for those behind in spring work, he’s better than Irvin but not 170m better.
The O’s by all means should be looking to sign one of them or possibly both. With shorter deal(s) having become a very realistic option, the O’s are a team ready to make noise and now is the time to invest in the team especially if in short term deals.
Do you want to put the best baseball team on the field possible? There’s all star level players available that will help your team progress towards a championship. Or do you want to be a greedy pig?
(Could be asked of every mlb owner)
(Could be asked of every mlb owner)
Give me a break
Cripes, why doesn’t Boras buy his own team and show us how Big Contracts can really get!!!!
A bidding war with himself!
Montgomery want a seven year deal? Hard to believe he’s still available.
Mind boggling that he still thinks he can get that. Should’ve looked for 5/120. I even think 5/100 would’ve been fair.
My guess is he’s looking alternatively and privately for a three year $95m deal with opt outs after the first two years. Such is way too much AAV but would allow Boras’ and Monte to save face. In the end I’m thinking he gets $112m over five with opt outs each season. Maybe, $24 x 3 and then $20 x 2.
I’d offer him 5/112, but the opt outs wouldn’t kick in until after the second season. I’d want at least two seasons from him since he won’t pitch a full load in 2024.
Of Montgomery is worth 30 plus the Nola should have gotten 45 million.
Montgomery seems to have genuine interest from 1-2 teams (Red Sox for sure and I feel the Rangers would be willing to take him back on a shorter deal) so I don’t see why Boras thinks that one team would budge and offer a seven year deal?
The Rangers have no money to spend.
I still think the Cardinals should get creative and make Monty an offer.
4/80 with salary deferred and opt outs may be the best he can do at a certain point.
From the Cardinals perspective, they would benefit tremendously by having him in tow for the future. After this year, they will again have two spots to fill in the rotation. Lynn and Gibson both have club options, and I’m sure the team would love for them to pitch well enough for those options to be “no-brainers”. I’m skeptical that we can hope for more than one of them to pitch decent enough this year to be brought back and it is not unthinkable that they both might be cooked.
Mikolas is also quite old and Matz in injury prone. A 4 or 5 year deal for Monty brings a lot of stability behind Sonny Gray.
Halo no wonder why he still is…looks what happened to Gio, the RS are scared!!
They’ll punt on the season before they give Montgomery 7 years. I could see 3 at most
If JD Davis passes through waivers, is he still due his arbitration salary?
If he goes unclaimed, then can a team pay him the vet minimum, or is he owed $6.9 mm?
Arbitration salaries are not guaranteed, so if they release him during spring training, they would only owe him a prorated amount of termination pay.
It might not be that simple.
From the TR Transcript:
“Mark P
12:49 The key phrase in the CBA is that the prorated salary applies for players cut “for failure to exhibit sufficient skill or competitive ability.” Davis and his reps can justifiably argue that he had a good season in 2023 and he’s been hitting great in Spring Training, so this is certainly more about salary than it is about Davis not performing.
This might be a moot point if another team just claims Davis on waivers, but if the Giants do try to avoid paying the bulk of his salary, this might be grounds for a grievance from Davis’ camp.”
Pitchers who wait for a second opinion always have surgery anyway. Gio should just get it done and be ready for 2025 at some point.
I’ll give Monty a 7 year deal. First two or three guaranteed while years 4-7 is team option only.
Trevors agents is sure out here hustlin’ for her client…
Canuck – Look at his handle. Wouldn’t be surprised if it was the agent’s client that is doing the posting.
If Jays can get out of Espinal’s salary and can get JD for $4M or less, the fit is there.
The Jays have prioritized defense these last few years. How can they go from a gold glover at 3rd to Davis, who last year posted a -11 DRS at 3rd in 915 innings.
Also, Davis was a worse offensive player then Chapman last year (103 to 108 OPS+) and equal the year before (116 OPS+)
So you’re looking at a dramatic downgrade on defense to get roughly the same results offensively.
Chapman is already gone. Toronto should be comparing Davis to who they would be starting at 3B instead, not Chapman.
But, if you insist, Davis had +5 OAA last year, which is better than Chapman (+4). Davis’ 104 wRC+ last year was the first time since 2018 he had been below 118. Chapman has not exceeded 118 since 2019 (although he has matched it). Chapman was also terrible with the bat last year besides his MVP-level April; Davis was a better hitter for most of the year even in a down offensive season.
And the kicker: Davis costs substantially less than Chapman and he’s also still available.
Well obviously he is worse than Chapman, IKF is also significantly worse than Chapman, but Atkins and Chapman were not interested in a reunion, Chapman also makes $18M (AAV) vs what I assume will be around $3M/$4M for Davis. This is like comparing Soto to Adam Duvall.
My point is that Espinal is pointless and Davis at least provides some value as a 3B when you need (a bit) more offense than IKF (worst hitter in the league)
Canuck, you need to compare Davis to Espinal as he would be replacing him. IKF is the Chapman replacement.
Who’d you rather, JD Davis and Clement, or Espinal and Vogelbach/Votto?
Have been saying all winter the Phillies could use an Adam Duvall or Wil Meyers type- a RH bat that can play 1B & corner OF. They acquired a solid vet with speed and good glove in Whit Merrifield, who can play 2B or LF vs. LHP. We don’t really need JD Davis, but if the Phillies opt to get Rojas more seasoning at AAA- I could see a potential fit in Philly. Merrifield could play CF vs. RHP and 2B vs. LHP- with Pache in CF. I think Bryce should DH vs. LHP, for the sake of his long term health. If we brought in Davis it would allow Topper to sit Marsh, Schwarber or even Bryce vs. tough lefties and insert JD in LF or 1B. When JD was on the Mets, his defense was atrocious. The fact that he was roughly league average defensively last year is telling that this guy works on his craft. Someone will scoop him up.
OAA has him at plus 5 last year, but DRS has him at -11. It’s not clear how much his defense has improved. Depends which metrics a team places more weight on.
“Thrust in to cont ention “
What a wordsmith.
Trevor is no good anymore and everyone knows except a few stuck in the past.
7 out of 10 years, ERA above 4. More than 15 wins once. More than 200 innings once. ERA lifetime 16% above average. That’s not really all that great to begin with.
Whyhay- those numbers you cited is good enough for an MLB contract and a rotation slot. He’s a Top 150 starting pitcher, therefore good enough to be signed.
Verrrry clever
Yamamoto got $300MM. Trevor Bauer won a monthly MVP award, went to the All Star game, and finished the season extremely strong. He had a rough couple games early on, which is pretty expected given he hadn’t pitched in a couple years.
Over his last 16 starts Bauer owned a 2.02 ERA.
Imanaga had a 2.80 ERA and got 4yrs $53MM.
Arguing Bauer “is no good anymore” is stupid.
Both these guys will sign, and both will get a lot of money, maybe for not as much and not as long as they want. Snell has a real issue with being erratic, and not a “horse” and Montgomery is a very good pitcher who is clearly not an ace. Maybe Boras overplayed his hand, and maybe the market is reflecting the impact of the CBT, and maybe some teams have already spent what they are going to spend, and maybe it’s a little bit of all three. The margin of error for really big contracts is getting smaller. And I wonder if Giolito doesn’t play in people’s heads. Sign a pitcher, watch him miss a year.
Probably not the numaro una but top 5-7 b/c of the yrs away from mlb, and he is a big big bargain. Where have you gone Bill Veek.
What a clusterf#*%+! The game of baseball is headed in the wrong direction. Snell and Montgomery need to get their asses on the field and play baseball.
I didn’t see Snell needing to take a Bellinger/Chapman style deal, but the longer he waits the more likely something like that gets. Not taking that 5/150 from the Yankees (or whatever it really was) is looking like a really dumb move. It would have given him a good shot at a ring, the Yankees as constructed plus Snell added would project to be an elite team, and he’d get paid what he’s probably really worth in today’s game. Unbelievable that they rejected that.
He’s really good, and coming off a really good season, but given how much trouble he’s had staying on the field, maybe they dodged a bullet.
Don’t see the Yankees as an elite team at all. I like the O’s & Jays more than the Yankees. Yanks & Rays will battle it out for 3rd place and a wildcard entry. Now, when you compare wins/payroll, the Yanks are an embarrassment.
@the former player, that horse is dead. You can stop beating it any time now.
But Joe…”Trevor is waiting.”
Whoever signs Montgomery will regret it..
Boras is a disgrace and Snell and Monty should feel embarrassed enough to fire his ass. Imagine winning the Cy Young and a World Series respectively and still being on the sidelines.
Boras is thinking about his Fantasy league.
They should opt out and defer his salary to 2407!!!
Anyone signing Montgomery will see he is a bit above an average pitcher.
Snell is a 5 inning guy.
Maybe the agent needs to realize the value isn’t there
Boras or Montgomery must be stubborn on what they want because he has no compensation tied to him. You would think one of the contenders would scoop him up.
Snell on the other hand has compensation and penalties tied to him. The more the contender is over the luxury tax the more the penalty is right now.
i think the front offices of the MLB teams know exactly what those pitchers are worth. The problem is that the Agent doesn’t know. Not sure how these players can keep Boras at this point. He certainly used to be a good agent, but clearly time has gotten to him. Boras doesn’t seem to be in touch with the market any longer, and the players he represents are hurting because of it.
Hi Trevor
Teams are going to wait until he clears waivers and released then they will sign him to a minors deal.
He probably gets a major deal.
7 year deal with Monty could offer opt outs after year 2 and 3, but team should get opt out options after years 5 and 6
But will never happen
I think with the RSOX getting rid of Sale and losing Giolito, they’ll sign one of Monty or Snell. With the Yankees potentially losing Cole to an IL trip, I think they sign one also. Maybe the Angels and SF/SD as the other possibilies.
I think SFG has moved on at this point.
Plenty of young talent and Cobb is ahead of schedule in his return.
Why would the RSox sign one of those pitchers? They’re going to finish in last place with or without Montgomery. Why waste the money?
You would certainly think the Red Sox would be making the short term signing move. Both of them, even.
You have no clue. No team will touch the creepy dude. He just pitched in a minor league exhibition and according to the Athletic ” No major league scouts appeared to be in attendance.”.
Because scouts are real baseball people who know about talent, and not just worshippers of the past.
He likes touching women….very very hard.
The Phillies overpaid Nola by 2 years. Looks like 5 year deals are max this offseason for pitchers…
Not sure I call Snell and Montgomery front of the rotation pieces. Snell will pitch 4 2/3 innings of good ball. Montgomery is a #3, maybe. He’ll have an ERA of ~3.90. Decent, but not front of the rotation in my opinion.
4 2/3? Snell went 6+ innings in 20 of 27 games May-Sept last year with a MLB best ERA of 2.25. On every team, that’s front of line performance
Trevor Hoffman retired years ago. You are dismissed.
There’s room for Montgomery to improve the rotation in St. Louis, even with a healthy Gray and with how good Mikolas has looked this spring. Liberatore or Thompson could be solid #5. I’m starting to think Gibson and Lynn were unnecessary.
Yankees will sign Snell once it is determined that Cole is going to be out.
Nick Deeds — You are incorrect. Once JD Davis is a free agent, he can sign for whomever and whatever he wants. He is not tied to the $6.9M that was found in arbitration with the Giants.