The Red Sox have reportedly agreed to an extension with young right-hander Brayan Bello but seem to have at least some interest in hammering out another. Righty Tanner Houck told Rob Bradford of WEEI that he has discussed an extension with the club, though nothing is imminent. He had previously discussed the matter with the club a couple of years ago, with nothing developing at that time.
Houck, 28 in June, has posted some intriguing results in the majors but hasn’t yet fully established himself as a viable starter. He has thrown 256 innings over the past four seasons with a 3.86 earned run average. His 24.9% strikeout rate and 51% ground ball rare are both a few ticks better than par while his 8.8% walk rate is right around average.
But last year’s 106 innings pitched were a career high at the big league level, his first time getting over the 70 line. Missing time last year wasn’t his fault, as he was hit in the face by a comebacker and suffered a facial fracture. That injury required surgery and kept Houck on the injured list for over two months. That’s obviously fluky in nature but it still prevented him from getting to a full starter’s workload. In 2022, he also missed time due to lower back inflammation which required surgery, capping him at 60 innings for the year.
Beyond the fact that Houck hasn’t fully built up his workload, there’s also the fact that his results have been better out of the bullpen. For his career, he has a 4.17 as a starter but a 2.68 mark as a reliever, though the latter figure is in a fairly small sample size of just 53 2/3 innings and his peripherals are actually fairly close. His 25.9% strikeout rate as a reliever is just barely higher than his 24.6% clip as a starter, whereas his 9.5% walk rate as a reliever is actually higher than his 8.6% clip as a starter. The wide difference in the ERAs could be down to a bit of luck, as he has a .298 BABIP as a starter but a .274 out of the ’pen, in addition to having a 69.4% strand rate when starting games as opposed to 77.3% as a reliever. His 3.70 and 3.12 FIP as a starter and reliever respectively suggest the difference may not be so wide.
On the other hand, he has significant splits, with lefties having hit him at a .251/.343/.420 rate thus far compared to a line of .214/.282/.283 from righties. If that continues, he might be better served working in a bullpen role where he can be more easily protected from exposure to opposing lefty hitters.
Houck should get plenty of opportunity to prove himself in the rotation this year. The Red Sox came into the winter looking to upgrade the starting staff but haven’t done so. They traded away Chris Sale and signed Lucas Giolito, but the latter now seems like he may be slated for a significant injury absence due to a partial UCL tear and flexor tendon strain.
Assuming Giolito will at least miss the start of the season, the Boston rotation consists of Bello, Houck, Nick Pivetta, Kutter Crawford and Garrett Whitlock. Pivetta is an impending free agent and could wind up on the trade block if the Sox are out of contention this summer. Guys like Cooper Criswell, Brandon Walter and Chris Murphy are also on the 40-man roster but none of that trio has even 50 innings pitched in the big leagues yet.
Given Houck’s current status, it may be difficult to line up on a deal. Since he’s unproven as a starter over a full season, the club may not want to make a significant commitment to him. From Houck’s perspective, he may not want to take a low-ball offer at this moment. If he takes advantage of the open rotation in Boston and puts together a strong season in 2024, he could increase his earning power significantly.
He currently has two years and 100 days of service time. That means he is slated to qualify for arbitration for the first time after 2024 and is on pace for free agency after 2027, which will be his age-31 season. Looking to Boston’s long-term payroll picture, Rafael Devers is under contract through 2033, but no one else is guaranteed a contract beyond 2027. Trevor Story and Masataka Yoshida are the only players guaranteed a salary beyond 2026.
I imagine this doesn’t get done before the season starts. He still has much to prove.
Biker – Agreed. He did look good today though.
He’s looked really good all preseason. I think he will benefit from Bailey more than any other pitcher on the staff followed by Bello.
I actually think it has less to do with him proving anything and more to do with whether he is getting paid as a starter or a reliever. I guess you could say he has to prove he can start and stay healthy, but I think his skills are obvious when healthy.
Less time spent extending mediocre SP who should be in the bullpen and more time spent fixing the current rotation please.
I think it’s pretty obvious ownership doesn’t want to sign any pricey free agent pitchers.
No one should care about fixing this rotation. They do need depth, but this rotation isn’t getting better by adding anyone at this point.
Might as well trade him for a proven veteran.We don’t need young guys to develop.
As much as I think Houck still has a lot to prove as a starter.. I do think getting these controllable guys locked in is a good gamble and sense of direction. If you want to be cheap and build through the farm, this is a must. As opposed to baiting big time free agents and letting our homegrown talent continue to walk or get traded.
Totally agree. After a lost offseason, if the two-year plan is to lock in Bello, Houck, Whitlock, Casas, Rafaella, Abreu, etc., then at least there’s a commitment. All of a sudden at least you have a 5-year plan and not a rudderless ship. And “full throttle” becomes the new chicken and beer, and we all go on our way.
As an ancillary benefit, much like they did with Bello, if they sign an extension based on this year, then the higher salaries count against this year’s ‘non-cap’. Meaning a lesser hit in future years.
Maybe I should try my luck pitching in Boston at this point. It’s like the Oprah Show. You get a Car You Get a Car Everyone gets a car. Tristian Casas though naw he’s gotta earn that car. Cmon guys.
There’s nothing wrong with making Casas earn it. It took Justin Turner taking him under wing to turn him around and now that veteran presence is gone it’s up to Casas to continue to develop and show that he is a building block
My point is we’re going to give it all away to mediocre sp vs locking up the next cornerstone piece of your franchise. Not something I’d do, but Casas is as good as advertised and then some.
Houck was injured last year and didn’t have a consistent role.
Red Sox are a 78 win team for the next 5 years
Hotdog – Interesting fact, the Red Sox have had nine seasons of 78 wins.
One of Houck or Whitlock needs to be the Closer (though ideally Whitlock in the 8th and Houck in the 9th could be scary good). I’m not sure if Houck ever develops into anything but a back of the rotation arm but i suppose an extension like Bello’s wouldn’t necessarily be horrible
I like this idea significantly less than I like the Bello one.
These discussion with Houck last happened in ’22. I don’t think the Red Sox will be revisiting them soon after his performance last season.
He was on the trade block months ago…
That was Chaim time, now it’s Breslow time.
But in all seriousness you guys are at interesting point with the team, ownership doesn’t want to spend and wants to see growth from within. Good luck Red Sox fans!
Yeah but Chaim and Craig are under the same umbrella. I have no problem keeping talent around but there needs to be consistent direction somewhere and few have been consistent.
Maybe the Red Sox are trying to be like the Braves in terms of team building? Bello extension and reports of them pursuing more extensions. Maybe this is a year to see what they got and will add where needed via trades and free agency. Only a theroy plus they said they’d spend this off-season and didn’t so who really knows.
Whatever contract he gets at this point won’t make trading him prohibitive if that’s the direction the Sox go in
As the author is attempting to suggest, this is not the right time for Houck, or the Red Sox to be discussing a multi-year deal.
MLB starters and MLB relievers operate within two entirely different salary structures. Houck needs to define his lane before either he, or the Red Sox know how to price the value of his service.
It would be foolish for Houck to sign for relievers money, then transition to full-time starter; it would be foolish for the Red Sox to sign Houck to a starter salary, and find themselves with a middle innings reliever.
Miscasting and mispaying Houck creates a mess for one side or the other. Either the Sox are paying a reliever way too much, or the Sox are paying a starter way too little.
There is no question with regard to the case of signing promising young players to pre-arb extensions. But – if the player has yet to carve out a specific role, neither the player or the team has the necessary information to price a long-term contract correctly.
Houck doesn’t need to define his lane, Cora needs to define it for him. If he keeps getting bounced around, that’s not helping his cause. It ruined Daniel Bard years ago.
Kidding – Whitlock says hi.
Red Sox are in love with locking down mediocre starting pitching…
@Degaz
Cornering the market on 4 & 5 guys. Red Sox don’t have a plan.
Actually, I moreover a plan than the past. Breslow is trying to get longevity out of home grown talent.
Everyone just wants to piss and moan about everything.
Have a nice day.
@whyhayzee
But… but… I’d have mega stars at all positions and winning championships every single year.
I’d like the RS to extend Houck simply to annoy some of the RS ;fans’.
a major benefit of them extending Bello was that it infuriated KD17.
Pissing and moaning about pissing and moaning. Classic…
6’5″ 230 lbs, still young. Injury history is small and non throwing arm related. Lock him up!
Houck is decent when:
1. He’s not injured
2. Sox don’t keep yanking him from starter to reliever and back
I think it’s good to lock him up and take our chances if the price is right
I’d imagine any extension at the point would make a good chunk of the money tied to innings pitched.
Why? He’s not that good.
why not? with ownership cutting costs they’ll need to hit a few scratch tickets in addition to bello and casas
I feel like if Kyle Higashioka is the one that hit the comebacker that caused your facial fracture, it is absolutely your fault
Cora for the most part has been a solid manager for the Sox but one of his biggest blunders is not having defined roles now for a third season in a row for Whitlock and Houck.
I think there are defined roles both are starting in the rotation this year and we will see how it goes.