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The 2024 season is just days away. It’s a time of renewed hope for at least the vast majority of teams. It also opens the opportunity for a few veteran players to continue building on what have already been very accomplished careers, some of which should happen early in the year.
Wins
There’s no pitcher who’s particularly close to a magic round number — unless we drop all the way down to 100, which is notable but not especially illustrious. However, Justin Verlander’s win total will still be worth tracking. The Houston ace will begin the season on the injured list but is hopeful of a quick return. The three-time Cy Young winner is at 257 wins in his career and will pass Ted Lyons for 41st all-time if he records even four victories this year. Eight wins will push Verlander into the top 40, surpassing Gus Weyhing. With nine wins, he’ll leapfrog Jim McCormick. Ten victories will be enough to overtake both Eppa Rixey and Bob Feller. With a dozen wins, Verlander will move past Jim Palmer. Recording 13 wins will eclipse Jamie Moyer, while 14 will pass Mike Mussina and Burleigh Grimes. Perhaps 17 is a long shot, but if Verlander can get to that point, he’ll pass Red Ruffing and move into 32nd place all-time. Each of Lyons, Rixey, Feller, Palmer, Mussina, Grimes and Ruffing is a Hall of Famer — a distinction that surely awaits Verlander in the future.
As an aside, Verlander would also become just the fifth pitcher to ever record 200-plus strikeouts in 10 seasons of his career. Again, starting out on the injured list doesn’t help his chances. He hasn’t topped 200 in a season since fanning 300 back in 2019, but there’s always a slim chance. Only Nolan Ryan, Randy Johnson, Roger Clemens and Tom Seaver have recorded 10 or more seasons of 200 punchouts.
Saves
Heading into the 2024 season, the current No. 7 and 8 names on the all-time saves list will have active closer’s jobs: Kenley Jansen (Red Sox) and Craig Kimbrel (Orioles). Jansen currently boasts 420 saves. Kimbrel is at 417. Jansen and Kimbrel not only have a chance to finish the season in MLB’s top five all-time saves leaders — it seems quite likely both will get there with good health. Jansen needs three saves to pass Billy Wagner, five to pass John Franco and 18 to pass Francisco Rodriguez, who’s currently fourth all-time. Kimbrel is only three saves behind him, so he needs just six, eight and 21 to wind up in the top five right behind Jansen. It’s also possible the two will flip spots, given the proximity on the current leaderboards.
Way down the list, Braves closer Raisel Iglesias enters the season with 190 career saves. That puts him 58th all-time. He has a strong chance to become the 54th pitcher to ever reach 200 saves in a career. Iglesias saved 33 games for the Braves in 2023, and if he repeats that he’ll jump to 45th all-time. He’ll pitch this season at 34, and if he can remain a serviceable closer into his mid- and late-30s, he has a decent chance at passing Jason Isringhausen and Bruce Sutter — both at exactly 300 saves — and becoming just the 32nd pitcher to ever reach that milestone, though clearly that’ll take another few years.
Other possibilities to reach 200 saves this season include David Robertson, who currently sits at 175 saves in his career, and Josh Hader, who’s sitting on 165. Jose Leclerc might get first crack at the ninth inning over Robertson, but he’s been inconsistent and had his share of injuries. Hader is the clear favorite for saves in Houston, but he’s only reached 35 saves in a single season twice before. Both pitchers could get to that nice round number given their presence as late-inning options on contending clubs.
Taking a slightly different approach to career save totals, Kimbrel is already one of just four players in MLB history to have five or more seasons of 40-plus saves, joining Mariano Rivera (9), Trevor Hoffman (9) and the previously mentioned K-Rod (6). He hasn’t had a 40-save season since 2018, but if he can turn back the clock he’d tie Rodriguez with his sixth 40-save season. Similarly, Jansen is one of just ten pitchers to ever have four seasons of 40 or more saves. He reached that mark as recently as 2022. A 40-save season would tie him with Kimbrel at five and make him just the fifth pitcher to ever enjoy five such seasons.
Strikeouts
Max Scherzer likely won’t pitch in the season’s first half, but if he takes the ball at all this year he’ll be a virtual lock to move into tenth place on the all-time strikeout list, surpassing Hall of Famer Greg Maddux. Mad Max’s 3367 punchouts are just four behind the Professor. With a full season, Scherzer might’ve had a shot at Walter Johnson’s ninth-place mark (3509), but that’ll likely have to wait for future seasons — assuming Scherzer keeps going after the ’24 campaign.
The aforementioned Verlander is only 25 strikeouts behind Scherzer and thus all but certain to pass his former teammate. Verlander is currently tied with Phil Niekro at 3442, meaning his next strikeout will give him sole possession of 11th place all-time. And if he can return early enough in the 2024 season, Verlander will have a shot at the 168 strikeouts he needs to inch past Johnson on the all-time list. He’d need 193 to pass Gaylord Perry for eighth all-time, which probably won’t happen this year, but Verlander has said he wants to pitch into his mid-40s and has an option on his contract for the 2025 season.
We don’t know when Clayton Kershaw will pitch this year or whether the still-unsigned Zack Greinke will pitch at all, but both are within arm’s reach of 3000 punchouts in their respective careers. Only 19 pitchers have ever done so. Kershaw needs 56 whiffs to get to that point and is hopeful of rejoining the Dodgers’ rotation in the second half after undergoing offseason shoulder surgery. His deal comes with a 2025 option, so even if 3000 doesn’t happen this year, there’s a good chance we’ll see it in ’25. Greinke is just 21 strikeouts away from 3000. A return to the Royals seems unlikely, but if he decides he wants to pitch and chase down that 3000 milestone, he’d surely garner some interest from teams seeking depth.
There are a handful of names chasing down the 2000-strikeout mark as well. As of this writing, 87 pitchers have reached that threshold in MLB history. Yu Darvish, who currently has 1932 strikeouts, needs just 68 more to get there. Darvish, Lance Lynn (1906 strikeouts) and Charlie Morton (1880) are all practically locks to get to 2000 with full, healthy seasons.
Total Appearances
Jansen already ranks 50th all-time with 817 games pitched, but he can jump into the top-40 if he makes it into 32 games this season. He’s already one of only 54 pitchers to ever reach 800 appearances in his career.
Three more names will likely join that 800 club — two of whom I’ve already mentioned: Robertson (793 games) and Kimbrel (780). The third is veteran righty Bryan Shaw, who’s reportedly likely to make the White Sox’ roster. At 791 appearances, he already ranks 59th all-time. With just nine games this season, the rubber-armed Shaw can further his workhorse reputation and perhaps move into the top-50 all time.
I really wish Verlander can reach 300 wins!
He’s the last guy that will probably ever have the chance
Only Cole and maybe a couple others even have a shot at 200 wins, honestly. Most current active pitchers won’t even reach that mark.
Verlander’s practically bionic, so there should be asterisks next to his milestones.
His arm would hafta make it to at least the ’26 season. Prolly not….
If not for a few dark years in Detroit, the Covid season, and that ridiculous time in a Mets uniform, he would have 300 by now.
IM – If not for a stroke, JR Richard would have had well over 3,000 strikeouts too.
And don’t get me going on Tony C.
He would have to be healthy for the next 4-5 seasons. Not impossible , but not likely given his age.
These days its a milestone if a pitcher simply stays healthy
Greinke hopefully gets signed – I would hope he would be open to being a reliever – if so he would be signed much quicker to get to 3k
Something is wrong with the strikeout stats. You say Max has 3367, but Verlander is 25 behind him at 3442. Does Max have 3467? Or does Verlander have 3342?
Ex – Steve gave both Verlander and Phil Niekro 100 bonus strikeouts.
Good catch!!! I had to go back and read it. Verlander currently sits at 3,342 SO
Yu Darvish had 1250K in NPB. If you add his 1939 MLB K’s he has a total of 3226K’s. It would have been interesting if Yu entered MLB before his age 25 season. It will be a stretch for Yamamoto to reach Darvish success & longevity.
True, but 1250Ks in NPB is not the same as 1250Ks in MLB either. Nonetheless, it doesn’t negate your point.
“The 2024 season is just days away”
Somebody forgot to post this earlier in the week?
Wins are a ridiculous stat, especially given that they now only pitch 5 innings. We already keep track of the team win, which is essentially what that win means. Assigning a win or loss to a pitcher is quite arbitrary. It’s more of a storyline stat than a relevant stat.
Saves are another useless stat when it comes to pitchers. If there’s any mental incapacity to handle pressure situations, they’ve been weeded out long before they reach the majors.
Total Appearances is probably the most arbitrary stat out there. If the manager has no one better to throw out there or your team is really bad and they need a long-man to pitch, then of course you’re getting a bunch of appearances.
Let’s hope one day, we can dump these useless stats and they won’t be relevant in stat keeping.
Good takes, Old York. You’re probably mostly right, though their may be some plausible counter-arguments.
What stats should the HOF use for pitchers?
I guess a pitcher like Verlander, Cole, or going back in time….Seaver, Palmer, Maddux, Ryan, Gibson, Marichal, Carlton, Feller, etc who is virtually un-hittable and is in control of a game has no bearing on his team winning. Yea I guess a pitchers win is a useless stat. REALLY Old York!!!!
Kershaw NEEDS to get to 3000 strikeouts. It will just build up his legacy.
Chaim: 3k K’s in this century is equivalent to about 1500 K’s for guys who pitched from 1970-2000.
So 3k K’s is now pretty meaningless.
Really? Because there’s only about 20 guys who have actually thrown 3000 k’s, so go out and call them useless.
Not sure how you can call that milestone “useless.”
Chaim: When something is meaningless, you call it meaningless.
That’s how.
Umm… okay. Way to define a word using the same word to define it.
Chaim: Obtuse interpretation. You’re basically a putz, I’m deducing.
Now I’m lost.
Precisely.
Shaw mentioned to be 59th on the list for pitching appearances. Must be the lowest rated amongst the top 100. Guess there is something to said about durability though. Barely made the team this year.
Here we are talking about pitching milestones, where as of right now I’m taking every 17.5 out under bet I can get. Case in point both Spencer Strider and Zack Wheeler could not of pitched any better and yet Strider was pulled after 5 and Wheeler was pulled after 6. What happened? Oh Philly’s bullpen just gave up 9 runs. I made money again taking the same bet with Chris Bassitt. Basssit barely made it through 5, I will also be taking the same bet with George Kirby against the Red Sox. Why? It’s April no one is going 120+ pitches yet, most going between 80-90 they aren’t stretched yet. It’s as easy money as there is in sports betting.