Phillies president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski has been open with his desire to extend ace Zack Wheeler before he reaches free agency at the end of the 2024 season, and he got it done Monday, announcing that Wheeler has signed a three-year extension covering the 2025-27 seasons. The Wasserman client will reportedly be guaranteed $126MM on the contract, which does not include any options or opt-out opportunities.
As shown in MLBTR’s Contract Tracker, that $42MM annual rate is the largest on any contract extension in the sport’s history and the fourth-largest AAV on any contract ever, placing Wheeler only behind Shohei Ohtani, Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander. Wheeler has now been added to MLBTR’s list of the game’s largest AAVs ever, as well.
That the contract begins in 2025 rather than overriding the final season of the right-hander’s current five-year, $118MM contract is notable for luxury tax purposes. Because the deal goes into place in 2025, Wheeler’s CBT hit will remain $23.6MM for the upcoming season before vaulting substantially in 2025. The Phillies were already into the second tier of luxury penalization, and a significant boost for Wheeler would’ve pushed them into the third tier, dropping their top pick in the draft by 10 spots.
Wheeler already has more than ten years of major league service time, and he’ll hit five years with the Phillies at the end of the 2024 season. That’ll give him 10-and-5 rights, granting Wheeler the power to veto any potential trade over the life of his new contract with the Phils.
It’s rare for any nine-figure deal in free agency to wind up being considered a bargain, but Wheeler has been worth every penny of his original $118MM contract — and then some. Currently 33 years old, Wheeler ranks fourth in Major League Baseball with 629 1/3 innings pitched dating back to 2020, the first season of the contract. His 3.06 ERA, 2.90 FIP and 3.42 SIERA rank 11th, fourth and 15th among 121 qualified big league pitchers in that time.
Since signing with the Phils, Wheeler has punched out 26.7% of his opponents against a sparkling 5.3% walk rate. Despite the homer-friendly nature of Philadelphia’s Citizens Bank Park, Wheeler has yielded an average of just 0.74 homers per nine frames — closely in line with his career mark of 0.83.
Wheeler’s 96 mph average fastball velocity in 2023 was down from its 97.3 mph peak (set in 2021), but he actually posted excellent swinging-strike and opponents’ chase rates, sitting at 13.% and 36.6%, respectively. Those two marks were not only his best as a Phillie but the best single-season marks he’s posted in either category in his entire career to date. When opponents did manage to make contact against Wheeler, it was typically of the feeble variety. Hitters averaged a dismal 86.9 mph exit velocity against Wheeler this past season, placing the right-hander in the 88th percentile of big league pitchers.
Detractors can point to Wheeler’s 3.61 ERA in 2023 as a sign of decline, but as already laid out, Wheeler missed bats at career-best levels in 2023, maintained plus velocity and kept his walk rate among the league’s best. The primary skill change in Wheeler’s approach was a decline in grounders (41.2% — down from 49.6% in his first three years with Philly). That led to a few more home runs but correlated with the uptick in missed bats. Given that the Phillies annually trot out a poor defensive alignment behind their pitchers, the increase in missed bats is a better portent of long-term success than a reliance on keeping balls on the ground anyhow. Wheeler’s 71.3% strand rate — an outlier mark when looking at his year-to-year levels — figures to regress closer to the 74.3% mark he carried into the 2023 season. Assuming that indeed plays out, so long as Wheeler maintains something close to his current K-BB%, there’s a good chance his ERA will improve accordingly.
The dominance for Wheeler stretches far beyond his regular season work, however. He’s been an integral part of the Phillies’ deep playoff over the past two seasons — his first two tastes of postseason action to this point in his career. Wheeler has made 11 appearances (10 starts, one relief) and piled up 63 1/3 innings of 2.42 ERA ball with a 28.6% strikeout rate against a 4.2% walk rate while pitching in the postseason.
With Wheeler now entrenched in Philadelphia through the 2027 season and Aaron Nola also re-signed for another seven seasons, the Philadelphia rotation is set for the foreseeable future. That pair will continue to lead the way, with Ranger Suarez, Cristopher Sanchez and Taijuan Walker all controlled/signed for multiple additional seasons. Suarez is arbitration-eligible through the 2026 season, while Walker is signed through 2027 and Sanchez is controllable all the way through 2028. Strong as that group may be, the Phillies continue to be linked to a possible short-term deal with reigning NL Cy Young winner Blake Snell — though signing Snell would catapult the team into the top tier of luxury penalization, which would push the team’s top draft choice back ten spots and likely mean more than $35MM in taxes on top of any salary.
Barring a one final, surprising splash on the free agent or trade market, the Phillies have other depth options in house. Former Tigers righty Spencer Turnbull and former Braves/Rangers southpaw Kolby Allard both signed big league deals over the winter. The Phils also have a stable of touted pitching prospects including Andrew Painter (currently rehabbing from Tommy John surgery), Mick Abel and Griff McGarry all working their way toward MLB debuts, giving them some quality young options. Painter isn’t likely to pitch at all in 2024 while recovering from last summer’s surgery, but he was in the mix to be the team’s fifth starter last year in spring training despite being just 19 years old during camp. He’ll be firmly in the 2025 rotation mix, though the team will presumably have him on some form of innings limit.
The Wheeler extension will take the Phillies north of $200MM in payroll commitments for the 2025 season before the first pitch of the 2024 campaign is even thrown, and with him now signed through the 2027 season, the Phils have a quartet of nine-figure deals they’ll be paying out at least four years down the road (Wheeler, Nola, Trea Turner, Bryce Harper). From a CBT standpoint, the Wheeler deal all but ensures that the Phillies will again be luxury tax payors next season at the very least. RosterResource projects Philadelphia for a hefty $229MM of luxury obligations next season, and that doesn’t even include next offseason’s dealings or any of the team’s arbitration-eligible players.
Wheeler would have been one of the top arms available in a deep class of free agent pitchers next winter. The 2024-25 offseason will still feature Corbin Burnes, Max Fried, Shane Bieber, Walker Buehler, Scherzer and Verlander — pending further extensions among the group. Gerrit Cole also has an opt-out in his contract next winter, though the Yankees can (and very likely will, barring any sort of major injury) override that opt-out by picking up a club option for a tenth season at $36MM.
Wheeler would’ve landed behind younger aces like Burnes and Fried in terms of overall earning power, but as this extension shows, his earning power on a strict AAV basis very well could have been the highest of the bunch. Instead, he’ll anchor a deep Phillies rotation that’ll take aim at a third consecutive NLCS appearance in 2024 and look to secure the World Series title they fell just short of back in 2022.
ESPN’s Buster Olney first reported that the two parties had agreed to a multi-year extension. Matt Gelb of The Athletic first reported the terms of the contract.
Good for them. Now they’re probably not in on Snell anymore, if they ever were…
Who knows if they are but Snell is likely gonna get an early opt out and Wheeler was already under contract this year obviously so idk if this effects it. All depends on the type of deal Snell is getting.
Seems like a lot AAV but three years makes it a win-win and fair deal. Phillies got injury protection as he ages and if he remains dominant, he’ll get to negotiate again.
It also may help Montgomery who is not Wheeler but his consistency is similar.
I don’t think it should effect Montgomery. An extension is different. They are almost desperate to keep him. They need him anchoring the rotation if they want a WS. Agents assume too much that other deals will impact their client. It’s all unique individual cases with the market and player
It is interesting that he didn’t demand breaking the 43.33M AAV that Scherzer/Verlander set with NYM. I’m sure, he’s not taking a L on 42M AAV.
@Run Wheeler kind of lacks even a Cy Young let alone the 3 that each Scherzer and Verlander have.
Awards are what they are. Many great players never win one. But it’s irrelevant because Wheeler is a safer bet at this point, he’s younger, and the deals are different lengths. They aren’t even comparable deals. Verlander got so much because the deal was so short. Wheeler was already signed this year too.
Wheeler’s first year of new contract he’ll be 35 y/o, Scherzer’s first year of new contract was 37 y/o, while Verlander was 40 y/o.
To provide more context, not only was Scherzer/Verlander older at the start of their new contracts respectively, but Verlander was coming off major arm surgery (at an older age) & Scherzer had been inconsistent and/or missed time in reg season/postseason with LAD in 2021. However, Wheeler has been one of the most consistent reg season and postseason SPs over the last couple of seasons.
Wheeler has had 3 top 5 CY Young finishes. Scherzer and Verlander each have about 10 top 5 pitches. Point is Wheeler is a legit ace, but he’s not on the level of JV and Max.
And yes as you point out the deals are different as well.
Timing is also important.
@Run JV was coming off winning Cy Young with a 1.75 ERA and a 0.829 WHIP. Scherzer was only 3rd in CY Young voting going into New contract with a 2.46 ERA and 0.864 WHIP.
As for Wheeler he’s never had lower than 2.78 ERA and has never had a WHIP lower than 1.000. So yes Wheeler has been consistent but he has never achieved the dominance JV and Max have regularly throughout their careers. And both had what would be Wheeler’s career year prior to their current deals.
He’d get more if he were a free agent because the Phillies already have him this year and there is no guarantee that he is even gonna be healthy entering next year (he still has an entire season to pitch before this deal starts basically. There is, in some ways, more risk.
But they were both older. There were concerns. And look what happened…They underperformed.
Scherzer’s first year with Mets would have been career best ERA and WHIP for Wheeler. JV had a 3.22 ERA and a 1.133 WHIP while having a down year by his standards last season. So yes that is why despite being older they earn more AAV than Wheeler. Their age however won’t see them getting a 4 year deal like Wheeler.
And yes Scherzer missed time in 2021, but inconsistent?? He had a 1.98 ERA and a 0.820 WHIP. Again #s that would be career best for Wheeler.
Are we back to paying for what guys have done for other teams and not about what they are going to do for you?
I get they’re HoFers, but Cohen didn’t expect 40 y/o Verlander to be Nolan Ryan as much as he wanted to pay that to convince everyone he’s doing something to win.
They earn more AAV because the commitment is shorter. Wheeler is signed for next 4 years. If he were given a 2 year extension the AAV would be higher than the other two. If he were a free agent right now and were gonna sign a one year deal he’d get 45 mil probably simply because owners like knowing what they are paying for and the further out you go the less certainty there is.
I’m sorry does anyone know what anyone is going to do for you? Of course you are paying what they did for other teams. It’s called a resume and without it we would have no future predictions.
Dewey – this feels a little bit like Sale 2.0 to me though.
2024 is his age 34 season, meaning the extension buys age 35 – 37.
In the last 3 years (21-23) his era and FIP have increased each season, and, his era+ has declined.
His WHIP, H/9, HR/9 have also all increased ever year for the last 3 years.
What that all means for me, is, maybe what we’re seeing IS a guy who still has very good stuff, bit, is declining given his age.
I don’t feel that they got a particular deal on the salary, as given that advanced age I don’t know how many clubs want to give a long deal to a pitcher, any pitcher, at that stage of their career.
If Wheeler duplicate’s Scherzer’s first year with the Mets, the Phillies would be disappointed. 145 innings for $43.3M? HIs 2.29 ERA looks great but he didn’t pitch enough for it to be worth it.
Not sure who’s comparing Wheeler directly the Scherzer, but it’s fair. You want to compare specific seasons…sure, there are times where Scherzer has been significantly better; the guy’s a HOF’er, no question. However, Wheeler has been pretty good, and should have won a Cy Young. He deserved it over Burnes in 2021. No problem with Wheeler’s contract. Phillies needed to get this done, and it’s done. He’d have gotten more on the open market next year.
@Mets69 — What’s the saying? Father Time is undefeated
Sure, I get there’s some that seemingly defy that, to some extent, but I’d bet against a 40 y/0 putting up record numbers to justify his record AAV unless he’s Bonds and the league is turning their head.
It’s a shame he can’t pitch every day. Then maybe the Phillies would win a World Series.
Tigers
1) it’s 2024. Don’t look at ERA and WHP. Be more knowledgeable than that,
2) Wheeler got less than Scherzer and Verlander
Rishi, I don’t see much of a difference considering it’s one year. It shows where the Phillies see next year’s market and certainly at least warrants an opt out if the AAV AND YEARS are not there.
You paying on past alone? Who is likely to be better in 25, Scherzer or Wheeler?
WHIP and ERA are not what they used to be, we know that. They are not irrelevant and still hold meaning. I’d say WHIP especially, that’s the # of runners a pitcher is allowing. Any pitcher allowing less than 1 base runner per inning is dominant, that’s just reality.
And I’m aware Wheeler got less. He was the one who kept comparing them and Wheeler. And as others have pointed out they are in different situations. Max and JV got deals structured around higher AAVs less yrs due to their age and ability to be shutdown dominant. Wheeler being younger and under contract got an extension and got security over greater length of time.
The point I was getting at was Wheeler is not and has not pitched at JV or Max’s level. He’s randomly pointing out yrs of there’s and those years he’s viewing as down yrs would be career bests in some stats for Wheeler.
This is in no way a knock on Wheeler, I’m actually a fan of his. But he’s trying to use 2 future first ballot HOFers for a comparison to Wheeler, it’s just not practical.
@Dewey, he was talking about the point at which JV and Max signed. JV had just had probably his 2nd best season of his career. And Max had a down year that saw him miss time but still pitched pretty good.
I myself was a bit surprised with Max’s deal with the Mets. He’s up there with JV but seems to me he ll regress quicker with age. He’s also not had that Noaln Ryan’esque ability that JV has, where any given game could be a no hitter regardless of age or how his last few starts have been. With the Tigers I wanna say Max had 1 complete game. He’d be dominant but you kind of expect to see bullpen when he’s on the mound.
Tigers
“I’d say WHIP especially, that’s the # of runners a pitcher is allowing.”
Pitchers don’t allow baserunners on their own. Defense and stadium play a huge factor.
Rishi – I think Verlander got so much because he was coming off a Cy Young season …. with a 1.75 ERA.
I hafta agree with everyone else, Wheeler is not the kind of guy anyone would expect to break salary records.
Why? Wheeler has been the MOST consistent pitcher in MLB since 2020 (inc. playoffs with a career 2.72 ERA/0.72 WHIP in 63.1 IP) – even more so than Gerrit Cole (9 years/$324M). As for the age difference — Wheeler is only 101 days older than Cole, but you’re also talking about production and Cole secured 9 years, while Wheeler secured only 3…so of course it’s going to be at that AAV. In fact, he could have another short-term (high AAV) contact left in him at the end of this contract when he’ll be 38 y/o.
I don’t think he is in that same level. I surely thought he would get 30-32M AAV extention 2-3 years. They guy is going to be 39! On the last year of the contract. The Phillies would be lucky if they get anything out of him at that age let alone a 42M value.
Depends on what that 40 year olds resume says before the that season. Imagine given up on Nolan Ryan at age 37 because of his age? Or switch it to a different sport and Tom Brady?
@GASoxFan Here’s the thing—Wheeler’s still elite, and elite pitching is rarer than hen’s teeth. The Phillies have a window, and it’s the next several years.
And in fact his 2023 periperhals are very close to identical to his 2022 peripherals, except he threw 40 add’l innings. Slightly better K rate, slightly better BB rate (which was already superb). Slightly worse HR rate, slightly more H per 9. There’s decline only against 2021, but pretty much everyone declines after a brilliant year that’s out of line with what they’ve done before. 7.5 WAR in 2021 was better than his two best years combined prior to 2021. Calling what he’s doing now vs. 2021 ‘decline’ is more a punishment for having had what will always be the greatest year of his career than it is an accurate assessment of where he is, in my humble opinion.
Are you calling consistency to ” a couple of seasons” Wheeler has never been in the same universe of Verlander and Scherzer or Gerrit Cole for that matter . That would be a loosing argument all the time. .
He only finished top 5 one time ,second in 2021 , finished 12 in 2020 and 6th in 2023
Gotta’ get the facts straight. Wheeler is 33 this year. The extension is for his age 35-37 seasons. That makes a big difference when discussing term and the likelihood for a steep dropoff in performance.
All large contracts are risky, and especially for pitching. And yet, pitching is the name of the game and teams are going to pay for it.
Career-wise, and peak performance measurables you are correct in that Wheeler is not a Scherzer / Verlander / Cole. Right now however he is one of the top five pitchers in the game and the Phils paid to keep him.
Paying him on a 3 year extension for those years is a safer bet than a JV for two years with an option at age 40. I am glad that DD and Middleton paid the bill.
Snell is so pissed off he can’t see straight. “Whatta I gotta do!” Ahahaha!
I’m guessing it’s NOT “go five years b/t Cy Young awards where you’re putting up 2 win seasons, tops.”
I don’t see a direct connection as it seems likely Snell’s deal will include opt outs starting after year one based on Boras’s other contracts this offseason.
What Snell really seems to warrant given he need 5 years of recuperation between Cy’s is something like 1/$28m.
Would it offend him? Sure. But it would overpay him for every season except 2 in his 8 season career.—and does anyone want to bet much of anything on Snell pitching more than 130 innings in 2024 with much more than a 104 ERA+?
does anyone want to bet much of anything on Snell pitching more than 130 innings in 2024 with much more than a 104 ERA+?
=========================
I’d make a decent-sized wager on that.
And, FWIW, the Phillies made the same wager on Wheeler when they originally signed him. The recency factor has to be considered. if Snell was 100% healthy in 2023, there is good reason to presume he is still healthy.
If they were in on yamamoto while working on wheels extension and still had interest in Snell simultaneously now, your comment isn’t worth commenting on. You are dismissed.
As an Angel fan I love hearing this. Boras is losing leverage each day for Snell. Giants say they are out. Yankees cannot afford to pay the 110% tax. The Angels are the only team left with a need and the money available.
Maybe this bolsters adding Snell short term
I think it helps… if Snell will sign short term … but at least the Phillies know Wheeler is signed and can make an offer to Snell if they want to
I like reality thinking. Not von purple Hayes thinking. The philles are a Snell away and a closer away from the top dog dodgers and braves. No doubt. No question. Astros also in that group.
Haha. Brining me up in a conversation I’m not even in. I’m flattered even though I have no idea what you mean.
My thoughts exactly. Dumbrowski is getting it. A trade for a closer would be nice.
“Maybe this bolsters adding Snell short term”
Why? This deal ties up an even higher percentage of money going to Starting Pitching over the next few years (Nola, Walker). How does it “bolster” the idea of adding another high priced SP? I would think signing Wheeler reduces the chances of a Snell signing, just based on the fact that there are other positions, besides SP, the team will need. But, who knows.
They have a proven closer in 2 time All Star, Gregory Soto. He would be as good as if not better than Kimbral. He has the resume, and is already on the team.
I definitely see a bullpen addition at the deadline.
I’d say his initial contract with the Phillies was worth it. Hopefully he keeps wheeling and dealing.
His initial contract was a bargain.
It felt like an overpay at the time, but like Scherzer’s contract with Washington, he ended up performing up to it and then some.
It’s also important to remember part of the reason why people thought it was an overpay was due to it coming early in the off-season and it was a Matt Klentak signing.
The winters before signing Wheeler, Klentak gave out sketchy FA deals to Carlos Santana & Andrew McCutchen which were both bad when all was said & done. Then they were a finalist for Corbin and the main reason why the Phillies didn’t end up with him was because he refused to give him 6 years which the Nats did. Then they won the WS behind Corbin.
People saw it as Klentak over-correcting for his mistake of not giving the extra year to Corbin by giving it to Wheeler. The talk during the winter of Wheeler’s free agency was he is looking for at least 5 years. And many clubs (rightly so) we’re worried because of his lengthy arm issues in the past. And the only 2 teams that offered 5 year deals were the White Sox and the Phillies.
Apparently, the White Sox were offering more money. But Wheeler’s wife is from Delaware and her family and relatives grew up Phillies fans. He chose family and sacrificed the few extra dollars Chicago was offering.
Teams had concerns which were valid. But he stayed healthy and also, I think a lot of credit needs to go to Caleb Cotham, who took over as the pitching coach in Philly and has been lights out. He’s helped guys like Wheeler evolve their game, revitalized the careers of guys like Jose Alvarado, and even helped non-tender guys like Andrew Bellatti & Jeff Hoffman produce all-star caliber seasons.
Dombrowski would have said the same thing about the Chris Sale extension at the time, and that certainly contributed to losing his job with the Red Sox.. The Phillies have now spent as much on two 30+ pitchers with some postseason miles that the Dodgers spent on Yamamoto.
And Yamamoto hasn’t thrown a single MLB pitch, let alone had the postseason success of Nola and Wheeler. Big markets spend big. High risk for sure.
Have you looked at Wheeler’s numbers for the two World Series games he pitched ? Over 10 innings, 6 Earned Runs, 8 strikeouts, 4 walks ERA 5.20
Not sure I would call that post season success, though if you want to include the wild card game and the LCS & LDS it looks better, but nothing to get excited about.
@Astros_fan_In_Aus – Pitching against the best teams in baseball has a tendency to inflate ERAs. There are tons of elite pitchers who don’t look awesome in the playoffs or World Series.
I said postseason success, not 2 World Series games against the dominant Astros.
Wheeler was excellent in back to back postseasons for the Phils. Particularly in 2023. Thanks for the humble Astros brag though.
Sure, but Yamamoto’s a minimal risk given his career to date. His repertoire would get him into an all-Universe rotation (sub-103 mph class).
He doesn’t have to be a star to be worth the deal. He doesn’t have to avoid TJS. Those are points a lot of people are missing.
I definitely like the Yamamoto deal for the points you mentioned. I was just pointing out that signing 1 Yamamoto is not necessarily better than extending Nola and Wheeler combined. Time will tell.
I really liked Wheeler from his Mets days. I thought he was superior to the other starters the Mets had and was surprised they didn’t keep him. He’s one of the few starters you can count on ever 5th day and gives you a solid outing. Never forget the Mets got Wheeler from the Giants for Carlos Beltran – LOL.
It will be interesting to see where they ended up (I was thinking somewhere around a 4 / $140M plus a vesting option year).
Love to see them hang on to Zack, as he has been a stud for Philly. While I am always terrified of late career deals for pitching, he is the type of pitcher that one should bite the bullet and hope that it works.
Even better – it is a three year deal.
That 3 years instead of 4 is why the AAV is so high.
@CarverAndrews Albeit one year out, one year from implementation, an agreement that probably adds value to the player given Wheeler isn’t likely at age 34 in 2024 to exceed the avg value of his last 3 seasons (or even quite match it) and therewith boost the return he can expect.
Ah, love seeing a division rival committing to becoming old and creaky in a few years with a load of untradable contracts. I’ll bet this is another.
Dumb bet, since you’re basing it on a hunch or other such superstitious pixie dust. Poof!
Definitely not untradeable. If the Mets can turn 38 yo Scherzer & 40 yo Verlander into Luisangel Acuna, Drew Gilbert, and Ryan Clifford… the Phillies can turn 34 yo Wheeler into something if s*** hits the fan.
Not to mention, all 3 are on the same exact deals.. .
The Mets didn’t turn Scherzer and Verlander into Acura, Gilbert & Clifford; those trades were all about paying the majority of the geezers’ contracts. The Mets, in essence, bought those prospects for cash.
Shoulda said Steve Cohen bought them for cash.
Exactly my point. Who says the Phillies can’t do the same? Sacrifice a year or 2 of payroll with half of that contract in exchange for a quality prospect. But I doubt a situation even emerges where the Phillies have to resort to that in the first place
But that’s prohibitively expensive. The NYM, according to Cot’s, is taking a $56M hit for Scherzer and Verlander in 2024. At their CBT tax rate of 110%, the cost for a couple of middling prospects was $117M.
I got a great deal on my 2019 RLX at Gilbert Clifford Acura.
No they didn’t. The trade wouldn’t have happened if they offered the cash straight up without the players.
Phillies are only taking a hit for 1 player, though
You can throw any pitching metic in baseball out there and no matter how you slice it, Wheeler is a top 5 pitcher in baseball. And the handful of guys that have been as good – Scherzer, Verlander, Kershaw – are all 3 or 4 years older than Wheels. There isn’t another ownership group or front office in all of baseball that is more dedicated to winning than the Philadelphia Phillies. Don’t hate.
@609 Eh, Scherzer was two years older when he signed with the Mets and, incredibly enough, was a significantly better pitcher at the time than Wheeler is now, not to mention the likelihood that Wheeler will decline a bit going from 33 to 34 to 35.
Will he though? Verlander & Scherzer are similar profiles and they sure didn’t.
@JackStrawb – Not really. Wheeler was just as valuable over his last 3 years as Scherzer was in his last 3 before going to the Mets.
Scherzer = 2.86 ERA, 2.84 FIP, 3.14 xFIP, 13.7 fWAR
Wheeler = 3.08 ERA, 2.86 FIP, 3.14 xFIP, 17.3 fWAR
Scherzer would have picked up some WAR in 2020 with a full season, but the two pitchers are basically identical.
@TheFuzzofKing Well, if that’s the only way you can beat them…
Red Sox could use a front office leader like Dave Dombrowski.
@30 Parks
Red Sox need a new owner.
@30 Parks
You must have banned me because I can’t reply to you directly.
Wait two years on Dombrowski and see if Phillies are still good
Dombrowski drained the farm system of boston
DD hasn’t really traded the farm at all in Philly (outside of O’Hoppe). Huge difference between his tenure in Boston and Philly. Although Boston got a ring out of it.
That’s why I said wait two years. I’m not against him. I thought he did fine, they simply changed philosophies. We will see in 2 years.
He hasn’t done it here, he threw money to patch up a few holes but he’s only traded two top 10 prospects, a contact oriented 2B Hao Yu Lee and C Logan O’Hoppe – who’s blocked by JT.
He drained Boston’s farm of what exactly?
Margot was blocked and really isn’t that great, Kopech hasn’t amounted to much beyond being injured, Moncada is meh and the rest have amounted to squat. In exchange for that he got Boston another ring. I’d make those moves every time.
Dombrowski had 4 years of drafting and signing international players, that started 9 years ago. Red Sox fans are still waiting for a single All-Star appearance by anyone he brought in.
Absolutely terrible drafting and signings for the long-term. Then factor in 32 minor league players DD traded out of the system, while bringing none back of any value, for the long term. A big portion of why the Red Sox are where they are is DD’s fault.
General managers do not scout players, nor do they decide all by themselves who to draft. That is the job of the scouting department, and the scouting director makes the recommendations
Dombrowski wasnt the “General Manager”, he was “President of Baseball Operations” in Boston. He would have say over all ‘baseball operations’ including hiring scouts and drafting players.
Here is an article saying he was directly involved with the shaping of the scouting dept in Boston. This article was a full eight months before DD’s first draft. The buck stops with him.
masslive.com/redsox/2015/10/dave_dombrowski_reshuf…
The Red Sox are where they are because they stopped being the Red Sox. They stopped being one of the top spenders. Plus they let their top talent go and didn’t get much in return. Dombrowski wins wherever he goes. He is brought in to win at the major league level not win championships at the minor league level. More prospects never pan out than the few who do. You should be upset with your owner more than Dombrowski.
LouW:
DD shouldve been the one to be extending that top talent before it walked. No? He had 4 years to lock up Betts, Bogaerts, Devers, Beni, ERod, etc. Instead he didnt lock up any homegrown talent, but did lock up Chris Sale and David Price.
The next guy, was over the cap the past 2 years and was heading over the cap again in 2019 (3 year penalty was severe at the time). They had no talent coming from the minors for many years. Basically the roster was full of superstars (that he inherited) with 1 or 2 years remaining on their deals, and a bunch of scrubs. The situation was unsustainable.
Don’t care what DD did elsewhere, he destroyed Boston for 5 years moving forward, when he was fired.
He was fired because he wanted to pay Mookie and Henry didn’t.
Bello, Houck, Casas, Rafaela, Mata, Gonzalez, Walter… yeah I guess he’s terrible… lol
I forgot Duran, the facts that he extended Xander to a team friendly deal, refused to trade Devers in the Sale trade and wanted to pay Mookie but Henry refused. The dude is a HoF executive. The list of his drafts from his other teams is absolutely insane, he’s a genius when it comes to drafting and hiring the right scouts to help with it.
9 years later all you got is
Bello – back end starter
Casas – okay first baseman, we hope
Rafaela – who knows
Mata – about to be released
Gonazalez – who knows
Walter – about to be released
Durran – decent outfielder, we hope
And thats with NOTHING from his draft pick/int signings/trades for the first 7 years. Good grief that pathetic.
Where are the all-stars, the front line starters. Thats terrible for 4 years of acquiring young talent.
Dombrowski signed Sale to the disastrous 5 year extension a year before he needed to and that is what he is doing with Wheeler. Dombrowski made a lot of good moves in Boston, but the Sale extension was not one of them.
Hindsight…
I don’t know, at the time Sale was our ace and I was all for locking him up, despite the results.
That’s a damned if you do, damned if you don’t scenario. If you sign a player early, it could backfire on you. If you don’t sign a player early, he could have a monster season and you either pay more than would or you risk losing the player.
Sale didn’t work out, but that doesn’t mean it was necessarily a bad move.
Difference being, he signed Wheeler to a 3-year deal, and Wheeler would have been a FA next season. So the extension is right on time. Will it work? Time will tell.
There’s a shock
3/126?!?! Uhhhh, I need to look at his numbers again.
Well yeah, no snell fo sho
He’s been a top 3 pitcher in baseball and the best postseason starter the last 3 years.
You got that right. Especially in 2021 (3 years ago) when he allowed 0 runs in 0 innings pitched in the postseason.
Well that’s a matter of opinion. I’m sure there is a stat that says so probably. He is really good.
Oh yeah, he’s worth it. Top 10 sp in almost all pitching stats last three years, and top 5 in some. He’s been a rock.
CBP is not an easy park to pitch in either ( I believe it is considered a hitters park) He only piches there half his starts though
According to Park Factors, it’s the 10th most offensive of MLB parks with COL, BOS, CIN, KC, WSH being the top-5.
Holy overpay
How so? He outperformed his intitial contract by a mile. The contract was signed with his prior injury history taken into account. All n all, the entire life of the contract looks something like 8 years at 30 million per. He’s been one of the best, most consistent starters with no signs of slowing down
Just because the first part was a bargain doesn’t mean you overpay the next part and last year was his worst with the Phillies
The old contract has nothing to do with this extension really. He got so much because they didn’t want to give more years. It makes sense really. I wouldn’t want to pay it tho. If you think you can win a WS you gotta lock up an ace. Even if he’s getting overpaid possibly.
That’s a lot of money for Wheeler. Is there some money coming off the books next year to pay for it? Something’s gotta give. They’re already a 2 time payer this year, A 3rd time in a row would be serious penalties.
Stop thinking that all owners are Tom Ricketts, Uncle Mike.
Wait, Ricketts won’t even cross the first line of the tax.
Luckily the Cubs spent millions on scouting and a farm system so Ricketts doesn’t have to. You know, The smart way to do it.
Nice extension by the Phillies. If they want Snell this signing should not affect it. In my opinion he still goes west
3/126 per Gelb is a GREAT deal for both parties. When a team treats players right, they want to stay. Well done.
Well, as long as the $$ is there.
$42M per year is not a GREAT deal for Philly.
It’s a short term extension for a top 10 mlb pitcher on a high payroll roster. Plenty of pitchers pitch elite in their mid thirties nowadays, especially ones with elite command. Phillies front office and fans won’t bat an eye at this nor should they. The “bad” contracts for pitchers are the long term ones typically.
Plenty of pitchers pitch elite in their mid thirties nowadays, especially ones with elite command.
============================
Not nearly ‘plenty’. Since 2000, only four pitchers have averaged 4 fWAR over their age 35-37 period. Only 15 have even averaged 3 fWAR.
JoeBrady: Well done there with the extremely useful stats, JB!
Wheeler is 33. So to your point, no one expects that age 35 season to go well. I think that’s why the Phillies added more AAV for less years.
The Phils did right by Wheeler and can budget his $42 million per year into calculating what short term deal they can offer Blake Snell.
I think it depends on the allocation. IIRC, when you extend in the off-season, then they treat the three years as part of the existing one year remaining, making it ~ $150M/4.
That would mean that almost all of Snell’s salary would be taxed at the 95% rate.
Phillies don’t need Snell. The rotation is set
It’s a *breath in* GOOD DAY
Is he or ANY pitcher worth 42 mil per season? I’d say no, I’d rather have two 20million Montgomery types than one guy like this….
Wheeler has lived up to his contract
@PhilliesFang He lived up to his contract, and then some. He was a bargain at 118/5, just under 24M per year. But now 42 per season? He’s going to have to be basically perfect to live up to that. We’ll see, damn good pitcher, but that’s a huge salary. If anything goes wrong, it’s a disaster.
Good luck with that. Ages 35-37. A real bargain.
PF
Not the new one
He’s been far and away a top 3 pitcher in baseball the last 3 years and is the best postseason pitcher in the game right now.
Wheeler is a unique case when you think about it. He is the rare player who actually earned his current contract and earned the extension. He doesn’t have excessively high miles on his arm for 33 since he missed quite a bit of time to the IL in NY. If I’m not mistaken he was part of the Mets’ return for sending Carlos Beltran to the Giants. Am I correctly remembering?
Love this! You could have both $20M dudes pitch only on their win days and split a CY award! A win-win!
Lamb
1) Let’s see if Montgimery signs for $20 million
2) FG DC projections
Montgomery 3.0 WAR
Wheeler 5.0 WAR
So, sure 2 Montgomery’s is probably better than 1 Wheeler.
But, I’d imagine you’ll have to pay more for 2 Montgomerys. Plus, that takes up 2 roster spots – one of which could be used to make up,the differerence
Montgomery isn’t 20 million. If so he is signed already.
Wheeler is the Phillies ace. He is capable of going up against anyone in the post season, and giving the Phillies a good chance of winning that game. Montgomery is a ” good pitcher”, no comparison between him and Wheeler!!
Yeah but you wouldn’t be saying that when it’s Game 6 or 7 of the WS and you got a Zack Wheeler on your staff.
I could have an entire rotation for 42m. But it might be worth it when you plan to contend with a 200 250 million payroll. Someone proven needs to pitch. No one safer than your own guys. It’s a lot of $ for an extension. Can’t love this contract but it’s a simple solution for locking up pitching for contention years.
I’d rather have an ace than two #3’s, myself.
Ace = $35MM+ (5.1+ WAR)
#2 = $25-34MM (3.5-5.0 WAR)
#3 = $18-24MM (2.5-3.5 WAR)
#4 = $12-17MM (1.5-2.5 WAR)
#5 = $8-11MM (1-2 WAR)
That’s a pretty fair scale in modern dollars. The average rotation pitcher on a roster should be 2.5+ WAR on a playoff team. That gets to you 12.5 WAR from the starters. Now, if you have a 6.0 WAR starter, you only need the rest of your staff to average 1.5 WAR to get to the playoffs. The more WAR you get from a player, the more valuable their contribution is to the team because the bar for the rest of the team drops.
At least my opinion.
If they can snag Snell or Montgomery on a short deal , lock them in for the world series. After being close the last two years , one of them would be the final piece.
PF
“If they can snag Snell or Montgomery on a short deal , lock them in for the world series. ”
LoL
Tell me you don’t understand baseba,baseball or probabilities without telling me
I do understand baseball, they have been close the last two years and got hot both times. This time they finish it. Everyone is gonna go with dodgers or braves. But imo both are not built for the playoffs, they don’t have that dog mentality
PF
Dumb
So, you are saying the Snelll who, remind me how many World Series winning teams he has been on, brings a “dog mentality” to his teammates.
Imagine believing this stupidity
PF
So, explain this “dog mentality” to me
The Dodgers and Braves (who have both recently won WS) don’t have it. They’ve both recently won WS. Where did it go? They must have had it then, right? Did it just disappear?
Do the Phillies also not have it? Do they have a little bit of it? But need Montgomey or Snell to being a little bit more? What of Montgomery lost his like the Dodgers and Braves apparently did? How do you know who has ot and who doesn’t?
Please explain this to me
Dave Roberts makes bone headed mistakes when it matters most even have a loaded roster. The braves don’t have that leader of men in that clubhouse anymore which that was freeman. They got a diva in Acuna plus the phillies live rent free in the braves heads in the p[ayoffs
PF
“Dave Roberts makes bone headed mistakes when it matters most even have a loaded roster. The braves don’t have that leader of men in that clubhouse anymore which that was freeman. They got a diva in Acuna plus the phillies live rent free in the braves heads in the p[ayoffs”
Lol
Imagine believing this and calling someone else “bone headed”
I would agree that the Phils have a case for being the third best in the NL, and that once in the playoffs anything can happen.
There does seem to be a bit of logical inconsistancy, though – if Freeman was such a leader of men that he pulled the Braves through the gauntlet, then why isn’t he enough of a leader of men to pull the Dodgers through the gauntlet?
Because Roberts makes bad decisions , Even Glasnow , Yamamoto & Ohtani plus Betts & Freeman won’t win them a WS
The final piece is a top notch closer. The trio of Wheeler, Nola and Suarez ( assuming D D tutors Thompson), are plenty good enough!!
At that price there should be injury clauses, no opt outs and no trade protections.
BK
Another “baseball fan” who seems to hate the players
Um a baseball fan would like to see a team not get anchored down by one player so they can spend more on other players helping them be more competitive.
BK
Did the same fans say the same thing after the Harper contract? After the Nola contract?
Have they figured anything out yet?
Are the same fans hoping players get opt outs and bonuses when they sign “team friendly” deals?
It’s probably not actually hating players. That’s true.
It’s worse.
It’s falling prey to the power of capitalists to manipulate media and the narrative.
If ownership can convince the masses that “its bad actually” for baseball players to get paid, it’s easier to convince them that it’s bad if they and other workers get paid
Where do you see hate? If I pay top dollar for a car, I would want a great warranty. That would give me reliability, and if its not reliable, I would want to be able to sell the car. It doesn’t mean I hate cars. Wheeler is not getting paid. He’s getting $PAID$! For that type of money, I want the spinning rims.
Well the billionaire owners of MLB teams did not opt to buy car dealerships. So the options they have to mitigate risk of injury in contracts is limited by the CBA.
The billionaire players did not opt to buy car dealerships, either. The reality disconnect between fans who think they have some sort of common ground with players is asinine.
The players are every bit as wealthy as the owners from a fans perspective. They’re not your friends or your buddies or your peers. Baseball players are the ultra wealthy. Exact same category as the owners. Same. No difference.
If you had a $100k salary and it grew by 4% per year, you’d have to work non-stop at that job until 2124 to make as much money as Zack Wheeler will make under the next 3 years. That’s 2.5 lifetimes of work at 1.5x the median American per capita household income.
Wheeler’s 3 year contract is enough to buy 300 average homes in the US, outright.
martras
“If you had a $100k salary and it grew by 4% per year, you’d have to work non-stop at that job until 2124 to make as much money as Zack Wheeler will make under the next 3 years. That’s 2.5 lifetimes of work at 1.5x the median American per capita household income”
Now do a baseball player and an owner
@filihok – If you’re making a batch of cookies and you need to borrow some chocolate chips from the neighbors. One neighbor has 1,000 packages of chocolate chips, and the other has 10,000, what does it matter? They’re both nuts. Also, no nuts. It ruins cookies.
And that completely opaque story reduces down to this. The top 0.1% of people in the US in 2022 made $2.8MM annually. That’s the “ultra elite.” Wheeler will be making 15x more than the cutoff for the top 0.1%. Wheeler and owners are in the same category of wealth.
martras
“Now do a baseball player and an owner*
So, no? You’re not going to make the same comparison?
Noted
I just did. Can you not read?
martras
“I just did.”
No. You did not do this
““If you had a $100k salary and it grew by 4% per year, you’d have to work non-stop at that job until 2124 to make as much money as Zack Wheeler will make under the next 3 years. ”
For a player and owner
I know that because I can, ya know, read.
Awesome move by the phillies. Trade Walker and sign Snell on a 2 year deal with opt out.
I think Walker is hurt , nobody is gonna take on his contract
Right on both counts!!
OTOH, you need innings and quality starts to get you to the playoffs. Walker is overpaid, but I wouldn’t rate him any lower than a mediocre #3, or a solid #4 at worse. 31 GS with a ERA+ of 98 has some value. Just not $18M.
JB
BTV has Walker’s field value at $47 million. His salary is $54 million
So underwater about $7 million. So, basically paid what he’s expected to produce.
I wish. Walker is a bum and is overpaid
Seems like a good deal for both team and player. It may blow up in Phillies face, but no reason to expect it.
Congrats Phillies fans.
Now I hope they can get Snell or Montgomery , but everyone sleeping on Bauer, I would take a risk on him
I doubt they get either Snell or Monty, and Bauer is on MLB blacklist until all his lawsuits have been adjudicated.
The girl lied , He said he’s willing to play for the league minimum
Unfortunately for him, there’s more than one girl.
PF
What did she lie about?
Please be specific and provide receipts
“The girl”? Was that a typo using singular???
He’s referring to the one that caused the Dodgers to jettison him from the roster. No charges were filed and she settled her civil suit against him without receiving any money.
However, there are others who have outstanding suits pending.
“Girls” plural is what is relevant. That’s what has teams terrified. And the fact most of his teammates going back to college have hated the guy, such as Gerrit Cole.
There is 1 other pending lawsuit and if you can explain why it has yet to be resolved I would love to hear it.
A lawsuit and criminal charges are 2 entirely different things. He was never charged with a crime. A lot of players are involved in lawsuits. More than you think. Being super rich tends to attract that sort of stuff.
Bita
“A lawsuit and criminal charges are 2 entirely different things”
Getting suspended or fired at work and criminal charges are also 2 d8fferent things
He served his suspension. And unlike a standard employee from any other job baseball in America is a monopoly. This isn’t getting fired from McDonald’s and going to work at Burger King. He doesn’t have other options.
Never criminally charged. Nobody can justify that suspension he got. It’s not a coincidence it just so happened to be exactly the amount of days he had already missed. Not a day longer or shorter but the exact number of days he had missed. That smells rotten.
You know what smells even more rotten, a grown ass man who encourages his followers on Twitter to bully a college age girl.
TB has reaped what he sowed.
Bita
“He doesn’t have other options.”
I mean he literally exercised one of his other options
He could also play for independent leagues. Other foreign leagues. Work at Burger King
I’m sure we could find examples of people who got fired from their job as, say, CEO of a company, or actor or musician, etc, were never found guilty of a crime and had to take a “lesser” job somewhere.
@Blackpink/Joel, the suspension only applies to his contract and him being eligible to play in MLB. He is done serving that and is no longer being punished by MLB. As for if any teams want to give him a chance that’s upto them. MLB or it’s franchises does not have to guarantee anyone an opportunity to play or any type of job for that matter. And MLB and it’s franchises can’t stand in the way of him doing whatever he so chooses with his baseball skills elsewhere, as he is not under contract with any MLB franchise.
Whether anyone agrees or not, it is each MLB franchises decision who they offer contracts to. Bauer has made millions he’s not under contract and nobody owes him anything.
He went to Japan to play. That’s insane and not a good or realistic option for anyone.
The same girl who lied and tried to destroy his career or a different girl?
Bita
“He went to Japan to play. That’s insane and not a good or realistic option for anyone.”
Why is that insane? Why is it not a good or realistic option?
Bita
What did she lie about?
Please provide a citation
Because it’s a foreign country. Have you ever worked in another country? Most people haven’t. Because it’s not normal.
She told her friend she was going to set him up and make this stuff up. It’s in a text public information. She’s a wacko Padres fan who slept with Fernando Tatis and was trying to help the team by sabotaging his career. This is all on record.
Wait … am I missing something? Someone with a screen name based on a musical group that works in countries around the world is commenting on how working in a foreign country is abnormal???
Bita
You asked that question to the wrong guy
I’ve spent roughly half my life outside the country that I was born in
So, let’s try again
Why isn’t it smart? I agree it’s not normal
And as far as not normal, being able to earn a living playing a game is far more abnormal then a person living or working abroad. So Bauer should have thought of the possible implications of his actions regardless if they were legal or not. He was given an opportunity most would dream of, and part of that opportunity for players is representing the brand and it should be paramount in their decision making.
More people should give it a try, honestly. Very illuminating to get some perspective on our culture that’s not available from the inside. Is he starving or something? My understanding is that he continues to do pretty well financially and claims to be intellectually curious. I would think him well suited for the expat lifestyle.
No ones sleeping on Bauer. In fact its who he sleeps with, and how he sleeps with them, that has every team turning their back on him.
Since when does who he sleeps with matter? Since when?
@Blackpink/Joel it matters when then current accuser that you mention brings to light 2 past accusers who leveled the accusations quietly a few years prior.
Not to mention regardless if it was consensual a man does not physically harm a woman and should not take pleasure in doing so. Bauer had clubhouse issues well before his proclivities came to light. Now it just compounds the liability he is on a clubhouses chemistry. On top of that is the potential harm it could do to a teams public image and likely would cost some endorsement and advertising revenue.
Perfect.
Wow, I think Wheeler’s overall deal may be one of the most fair deals *and* most economical deals in the history of the game.
Basically 8 years/$244M and he will at worst be a break even fair value and may maintain a pace that still makes it a slight discount. But for now, this is a very fair 3 year extension.
Basically he’s being paid exactly fair for his production with this extension after a pretty steep underpay of about $15M per season the first five years of the contract.
Potentially provides a value of closer to this current salary when broken down by WAR value, but at that steeper discount the first five years, it will still be an overall discount and good ROI for the Phillies.
Impressive and the right thing to do.
Sends a signal to other future FA’s, plus young players within the org who might consider an extension at some point. The team will show the player due respect. Contrast this treatment with Corbin Burnes’ comments about his arbitration hearing with the Brewers.
He agreed to the previous contract, so it was fair, and he was never underpaid. As a FA signing, 29 other teams felt it was more than they wanted to pay, so while it did work out, at the time of the signing, it was an overpay. As no other team was willing to take the risk the Phillies did, they deserved the rewards for that risk.
@stymeedone Well said, though in the narrow sense of what FA’s get on average per win, “underpaid” isn’t the worst word choice in the world—albeit hardly the best.
I remember more than a few whistles from knowledgeable fans who were surprised and impressed the Phillies would go that high for a pitcher with one TJS already in the bank, a career 100 ERA+, a 107 ERA+ in his previous two years, and headed into his 30s no less.
TTO Negating that analysis requires us to invent a term that’s the opposite of “sunk costs.”
Call it “pocketed profits.”
Pocketed profits, here the surplus value provided by Wheeler against his 5/118m contract has no more relevance to what comes next than does the ‘need’ to continue to play a player hitting .100/.100/..100 just because you’re paying him, say, $30m a year and it’s the last day of the season in a game you must win.
The Phillies profiting from ZW in 2020-2023 has no bearing on whether to pay him x/$ym in 2025 and after, from the perspective of putting together the winningest baseball team.
That might be technically true, but if that was true, teams would never extend early, would never overpay on the final year or two of arbitration, would never sign guys to oversized one year deals after a very team friendly extension, etc.
Teams absolutely compensate players later for underpays earlier, just not officially or directly.
I think the best and weirdest example of this was when the Twins restructured and gave a large raise to Phil Hughes just one year into their original 3 year/$24M deal, to raise his AAV from $8M to $11.6M a season and tack on additional years to the commitment. converting that into 6 years/$66M overall, adjusting what would have been 2 year/$16M into 5 years/$58M.
I knew Wheeler was good but never followed too closely (O’s fan). Took this opportunity to look at his stats though and man…what a beast. Aside from a bit of injury in 2022, this dude has been absolutely dealing for a good long stretch.
Feels like ages ago the Giants traded him for Carlos ‘Garbage Can’ Beltran. Right up there with the McCutchen and Pierzynski trades among bad Giants trade
Gerrit Cole will opt out now. He’s got to make more than $42 million per year instead of $36.
I think the Yankees can void by adding another year to his contract. Says on Baseball Reference anyway.
Correct. Yankees will void the opt out by adding that additional year and he’ll retire a Yankee.
He’s not gonna win in NY
Yankees need to trade Cole now for top prospects. I don’t see how Yankees can pay both Cole and Soto. If Cole was younger the decision is easy. IMO Mets should have kept Wheeler.
They can definitely pay both. It just depends on how aggressive they want to be. If the team performs at an elite level this year, bouncing back from last year’s disaster, and is competitive in October, then I expect they will not only trigger Cole’s extension (this is almost guaranteed to happen no matter what) and pay up for Soto (especially if he plays well). Rizzo, Torres and Verdugo are all coming off the books after this year for a total of 42 million. One could argue the team doesn’t really need any of those players after this year and can easily replace them in creative ways.
Peraza or Cabrera can play 2B, LeMahieu can play 1B, and Dominguez will be healthy and can replace Verdugo in the OF. Spencer Jones will be ready soon to join the OF or Austin Wells could be plugged in at 1B. Everson Pereira might show out this year. Jorbit Vivas is an intriguing 2B option.
My point is there are plenty of options for them to get creative with the roster financially if they want to keep Soto’s bat in NY.
There is always the possibility that that may not be Soto’s choice.
Except he won’t be able to when the Yankees opt-in to his tenth year at $36MM which voids his opt-out.
Ages 35-37, 3/126m, one year out
vs.
Ages 34-37, 4/144m, no years out.
I think it’s widely agreed that an average post-Pitt year from Cole gets him to the player opt-out and the Yankees to therefore add the team opt-in by guaranteeing 5/180m for Cole’s 34-38 seasons. They’ll have to—it’s not like they’re pitching rich, any more.
Has any other GM traded away more pitching than Cashman has in the last few years?
—fwiw I’d think that an average post NY Wheeler year in 2024 would get him a 4 year deal with more guaranteed $$$ but at a lower AAV. say 4/144m for his age 35-38 seasons, maybe? That’s in effect an $18m guarantee for his age 38 seasons, a significant 3 seasons out.
Sounds fair.
I think Cole would have to have an utterly catastrophic injury for them to even consider letting him opt out. Or, his metrics would have to fall off the planet to a degree that they would believe he’s cooked.
Why would they be compared? 2 very different circumstances. 1 was an extension, the other a FA signing. Had Wheeler reached FA, you may have seen him eclipse deGrom’s deal. TEX was smart for adding his 2028 TJ surgery option though. All-in-all, you gotta feel really good with where TEX is at, being able to win without him, and now getting that wave of rookies.
$42MM AAV. The Cohen inflation has firmly taken hold. The top starters will get paid but the mid-tier and lower will get squeezed and/or crushed.
@LordD99 doesn’t seem like it, compadre, not with Taijuan Walker getting 4/72m and Taillon getting 4/68m.
Even elderly pitchers with a history of durability but projecting to something like an 85-88 ERA+ got 1/12m this offseason.
Pitchers are getting bad.
Supply and demand.
Huh. How did “paid” turn into “bad”?
Wow..didnt really consider him in the verlander/scherzer mold..what am i missing that makes him worth 42mil per?
@Poolhalljunkies 2.90 FIP for the last 4 years is astoundingly good. 137 ERA+ is a hair better than Johan Santana for Santana’s career. Pro rating for 2020 Wheeler’s avg’ing 187 innings a year.
You do what he did in 2018-2023 twice more, they give you a Cooperstown plaque and that even counts his 2020 as if it’s a full season.
There isn’t anyone better over the last 4 years, is why he’s getting this deal. Cole’s FIP is 0.37 runs a game worse. Wheeler’s also doing this in front of Phillie’s defense.
My only concern with ZW is his TJS in 2015. Last I knew the ‘guarantee’ w/ TJS is about eight years. Certainly deGrom’s woes support that. I’m not a doc (though I’ll play one on the internet), but it’s my understanding that blood flow to dead tissue become a problem at that point, alone with other more standard aging issues. Now the Phillies have him for the 12th season after TJS.
Not without significant risk, but he’s as good as it gets.
Wheeler’s last 3 years more valuable than Scherzer’s before signing with the Mets. Wheeler is the most underrated and overlooked pitcher in baseball.
@martras Not particularly close, my friend. Wheeler’s ERA+ was 135.
Scherzer’s? 151.
2020 makes comparisons awkward, but Scherzer was significantly better per inning.
Even by bWAR, Scherzer pips him.
Wheeler’s great. Scherzer was better. Look at Max’s 2013-2019. Any set of three consecutive years beats Wheeler’s 2019-2021. That’s a great, great pitcher.
@JackStrawb – If you like ERA, good for you. “Even by bWAR” well, of course. bWAR is calculated using ERA+ so those two should be similar.
The most valuable pitcher in baseball, by fWAR from 2019-2021 is Zack Wheeler. #1. Absolute most valuable pitcher in all of baseball.
Philly fans have to be excited for the upcoming season and that their team ownership has been willing to spend so much the last few years.
Now they can focus on Snell or Montgomery, then hopefully Sasaki next year.
Sasaki will want more than what Yamamoto got, and will probably get it. That’s a crazy amount of money in the pitching staff with Nola and Wheeler also signed to extensions. Plus they’re still paying Walker. They might want to extend Suarez too at some point to say nothing of some of their young regulars like Stott and Bohm.
Lol… this is a fart directed at Snell
td
“Lol… this is a fart directed at Snell”
No. It’s not
Unlike yourself, the people running the Phillies don’t have the intellect of a 5 year old child
Man. Between Syndegaard Harvey and Wheeler, who would have predicted that Wheeler would be the last and most successful dog in the fight???
You can add Matz and arguably deGrom to that list as well, although if deGrom can stay healthy, he’s the better pitcher. Big if tho…
deGrom can’t be the better pitcher, since he spent his career not pitching.
And yet, he’s racked up 50% more WAR, career.
40+MM a year for a guy past his prime, that has never won a cy young nor has ever been cosidered the top pitcher in baseball…. no wonder why Snell is asking for the heaven and Earth.
CP
“that has never won a cy young nor has ever been cosidered the top pitcher in baseball”
You, we’ll, not YOU, can be really good and not win a CY or be the best pitcher in any season. Like Wheeler
There has not been a single season in which he was the best pitcher. He is good just not great in my playbook. He had one great season and another very good one. After that he has been just above average.
@CP77 Wheeler was robbed blind of CY in 2021, and he has been one of the best pitchers in baseball for the past 4 years. He is by far the most consistent. I don’t know what you’re on about.
Agree that he has been on of the best in two of the past 3 years (2020 to me does not count) the guy has made 30+ starts in his career only four times, sub 3.00 ERA 3 times (one was 2020) he has been good , but not great to me.
the guy has made 30+ starts in his career only four times
=========================
Wheeler has missed almost no starts over the past 6 years. He’s #4 in IPs over that period.
@808sAndMetsHeartbreaks Well said. Some comments are immutable, and some are mutable.
The comment you’re responding to reminded me of people who take a brilliant player who has been in the game since 2014 but only found his peak in 2018—but those commenters nonetheless use the player’s career ERA+. Sad, really.
It’s nice to be able to separate the wheat from the chaff so readily here.
There is no way that any one can seriously say that in the past four years he has been “by far” the most consistent. He is no where near close to Gerrit Cole, not even 5 boddies behind.
For everyone screaming overpay, the dude’s been a top five pitcher for years now. You reward that. Do you not get a raise when you’ve done well at a company you’ve been with for years? There’s no difference here.
When has anyone been paid this kind of money and it wasn’t an overpay?
A raise, sure. Almost doubling my salary? No, its not the same thing. Its not supposed to be.
That’s wholly subjective. If his team offers the deal, that’s what they feel he’s worth to them. And yes I’ve seen doubling of salaries in the real world too. It’s not unheard of.
# 1 in mlb you don’t get paid for what you have done , you get paid for what the teams think you will do.
# 2 – He has been a top 5 only once in carreer.
You base what they can do on what they’ve done, do you not??? There’s no fortune telling and time machines happening here.
There is a thing called prohection. Maybe you’ve heard about it…
He has been a top 5 only once in carreer.
============================
Guess how many SPs have a higher fWAR over the past 6 years?
@CP77.
Zack Wheeler ranks in fWAR for pitchers in MLB.
2023 #1 in MLB
2022-2023 = #3 in MLB
2021-2023 = #1 in MLB
2020-2023 = #1 in MLB
2019-2023 = #1 in MLB
Are those NBA seasons?
You are putting a stat for which there are 3 different methods of valuation, fWAR,WAR & WARP. You’re basically cherry picking. Same way I can say he has been voted top 5 in the Cy Young only once, has never won an ERA, title or ERA+,etc… only once had a WAR over 5.0 , his FIP has been elite only twice. Anyone can cherrypick. In the same period of time he is #17 in ERA,#9 in W,#102 in BABIP,#9 in GS. He is good don’t get me wrong is just that to me he is not in that level of 40+M per season.
@Salzilla Not really the case in baseball, though, where performance falls off at such a comparatively young age.
A team that rewards past performance will find itself in deep trouble very quickly.
Zack Wheeler will be signed from ages 34 through 37 at 42 AAV.
Gerrit Cole is currently 33, currently signed through age 37 at 36 AAV, and has an opt out after this year at age 34.
Gerrit Cole, YOU are a New York Met.
If he’s opting out , my guess Dodgers or the giants finally land their big dog ace
I don’t see the Dodgers taking a shot at Cole if he opts out. Cole will want $$$ slightly above Wheeler.
Yamamoto/Glasnow/Ohtani is already the strongest 1-2-3 in baseball assuming Glasnow stays healthy, and I’d bet Bobby Miller is going to be very good as their #4 these next few years. I’m more than sure they’ll find a reliable #5 in one of their other prospects/rookies.
Yankees can override the opt out by picking up a one year 36M option which now looks like a no brainer.
The Yankees control the option. They can negate Cole’s opt out simply be adding a year. Cole can be a Met at age 39.
Ah crap, didn’t see that clause
…but the Mets signing Cole at age 39 to a $50MM AAV does seem even more on message for them.
Amazing, really, that the Mets got very, very lucky w/ their old rotation in 2022 and apparently thought to themselves, ‘hey, let’s get a lot older, see what happens!’
Cole can be a Met at age 39.
=====================
Since their two previous ‘aces’ were 38 & 40, 39 sounds about right.
The opt out can be voided if the yankees pick up a 1 year option valued at 36M , so don’t count on it.
Can the Mets now trade for T walker from the Phillies? It will help the Phillies out a lot plus they can pay walker what they didn’t pay wheeler. Yeah. 1986 and counting.
This comment is either really good rage bait or in contention for one of the stupidest of all time
If the Phillies are happy paying him 42M a year than I have no gripe.
If Snell was open to a short term contract. He’d be signed by now.
People are right about cole..if wheeler is worth 42 mil per..whats cole worth , 50?
Wheeler is every bit as good as Cole.
Except..cole is career 40 war player ..vs wheeler being 17?..the backs of thier respective baseball cards tell the story that cole is better and its not really close
Yes, career…Wheeler missed significant portions of his early career with injuries. In the last 4 years, Wheeler leads the league in pitching WAR. Cole is 5th on that list. You can’t use stats from 2013 to determine who gets a contract in 2024.
Also, not sure where you pulled Wheeler’s 17 WAR from. Wheeler has 31.4 career fWAR, 19.3 of which came from the last 4 years.
Correction 31.8 career fWAR for Wheeler, ran out of time to edit
When we’re talking current skills, what players did in 2015 aren’t relevant.
My bad must have misread the war..its from baseball referene which is bWar i think vs fWar which is fangraphs..and baseball ref has wheeler at 29.4 .cole was 41.2..and if we only want to discuss recent success cole had a 2.6 era vs a 3.6 for wheeler last year. Granted era isnt everything but a full run is a big diff..also cole won the cy young on what was otherwise a very dissappointing yankee team…that counts for something or dont bother giving awards
Lived up to the first big contract, now Philly wants him to live up to this one. Playoff performances help. Guy has cashed.
$42M/yr for a 3.61 era….oof. #stupidmoney
You don’t know ball
SN
“$42M/yr for a 3.61 era….oof.”
Thinking teams give contracts based on ERA in 2024…oof
#StupidFandom
Thinking teams give out record setting extensions for pitchers in their mid 30s. Oof
SN
What record did this set? Also, what goalposts are we shooting at now?
@filihok
Wheeler’s extension is a record for the highest AAV ($42m/yr) for a contract extension. That’s about the only part Nick got right lol
all joking aside…
… WTF? 42million for 3 years at age 34? I see people saying ” it’s high b/c it’s 3 years instead of 4.”… so????
I like the Phills, not my favorite team, but I have no qualms, the fans are great to converse with….but this contract for a 34 year old. His physical must’ve come back as Jolly Ranchers for them to make this sort of deal.
Thank you, Mo and Sonny for 3/75.
Are you f’n kidding me? Contracts like these are as dumb as it gets, and bad for the sport.
You may commence to attacking me now for my opinion.
What should he have gotten, and why’s this bad? Genuinely wondering
I would give him 15 million a year
More than enough for any human to live on while over a billion people are in horrible poverty
And that’s why your team better have really good scouting, or you’ll spend a lot of time looking up at rivals – kind of like the Pirates.
Everyone said the same thing with his first contract. They were wrong. I don’t expect him to hold up for the last year, but he’s been great. I’m cool with it.
Yes it’s an high AAV but… After seeing some of the numbers SP got this off-season, this seems like a good deal. And it’s only for 3 seasons. Well done Philly.
As a Giants fan, seeing Wheelers name always gives me some PTSD, for the 13 years since Sabean traded him for a rental of Carlos Beltran! Yikes! One of the worst trades ever! I know we won championships anyway but still it stings. Yeah many will say it’s the price of doing business but the disparity in this trade is still so egregious
I’ll take the 2 rings won after he was dealt over paying a #2 starter 42 mill a year.
I agree Benny, I love the rings for sure! But this trade would have hurt less if Wheeler had faded away in a few years instead of dominating for 13 and probably 15 years after the trade! I know he has had injuries but that was partly the Mets fault!
BennyGiant
I’ll take the 2 rings won after he was dealt over paying a #2 starter 42 mill a year.
========================
If you are referring to Beltran, I don’t think he won any rings with SF.
“As a Giants fan”…The 3 World Series Championships Sabean/Bochy delivered should make you feel better about “One of the worst trades ever”. By the way, not every trade works out but most people, fans or teams would gladly trade a bad deal or two for 3 World championships.
Note to all big market ball clubs notice how the Phillies do business unlike the Dodgers they didn’t defer this contract.
cscd
Sleep, there is more than one way to structure a contract. Thanks for pointing that out
Also, where have you read those details
Wheeler has earned the benefit of the doubt. The guy has been pretty healthy aside from a stint on the IL last year, came back still shoved, and he’s preformed great in his playoff starts. I think this contract will age well.
Wow, that rocked my Monday morning. My boss is a huge Philly guy like me and I said, “Ken, the Phillies just extended Wheeler for 3 years. Bet you don’t come within 20mil on your guess of how much it was worth.” His guess, 85mil. Not even here in the Philly area, a place where we know just how good Wheeler is – could any of us imagine $126mil over 3 years. Was anyone not shocked I guess is the question? Good for Wheeler but I’m stunned at that figure. This rotation is nasty, with Abel knocking at the door and Painter a year away. Let’s go Phils!!
Mcgarry too!
Does the 42/yr make you feel better about your rotation? it sure seems like it does.
That contract is to high in my opinion. Wheeler is a good pitcher but 40 plus million a year??? Not that good. Baseball needs to get a cap asap crazy contracts
WOW, $42 mil a year for 3 years, for Wheeler, damn it’s getting ridiculous
DC
Have you seen how much the Phillies pay John Middleton? And Wheeler is a much better pitcher than he is
Talk about overpaid
42 million a year WTF what is Philadelphia on crack?
Good deal.
I realize most teams don’t like to “in theory” at least partially reward a player for previous years productive results (creates a precedent etc.) (especially and almost exclusively when they performed for a previous team). This is not the case for the last 4 years of Zack. This seems to be a generous contract for Wheeler (albeit a short term one He didn’t hold out for 4+ year extension)
PHI contract for NOLA was a player and team friendly agreement also IMHO. This way of doing buisiness can and does create a Good Will team culture and it may attract more players in the future like Snell. Wheelers track record with the NYM was pretty solid he did have a TJ injury or similar and was a top prospect they got from SF in exchange for Beltran.
I am a NYM and I am sincerely happy for PHI, Wheeler and his family and I find most PHI fans respectful
First time GM, ex Agent BVH allowed Wheeler to go to FA based on multiple reasons. ($) Potential injury issues are always a concern especially the longer the contract.
At the time NYM had deGrom, Thor, Matz and Harvey (was breaking down). still around and maybe they just made a tough decision and couldn’t afford to keep them all
(The last years of the more frugal Wilpon owner era, which personally I didn’t have major issues with 2006-2008 should have done better ARGH)
Good for him. He has proven to be a top-notch pitcher . Too bad that the Mets did not hold onto him
Theoretical question:
Suppose that Wheeler’s ERA is what FG predicts, a 3.58. If they let him play out his existing contract, what would his his next contract look like at age 34?
Would it be any higher than $126M/3?
If he avoids injury, probably a JDG contract with an AAV less than $42MM and def more than Cole’s $36MM AAV. There will also probably be a sixth year option.
More great news for my Pirates. I’m hoping some rich teams swoop in and pony up $200m for Snell and Montgomery. We could use a little extra cash to extend a few more dudes like Bednar, Cruz and Skenes.
Good for the Phillies and Zack Wheeler, even though he plays for a rival team I really respect his game. I remember when he first signed with the Phillies and a lot of people thought it was a huge overpay.
It’s great the Phils have resigned Wheeler and given him a sizeable raise in salary. $42 million a year later, that now puts the Phils with essentially the same team and in exactly the same place they were when they lost the NL pennant last year. I’m sure they’ll try to sign Snell to a one-year deal and pay him megabucks for the privilege, but the Phils once had a rotation of Halladay, Lee, Hamels, Oswalt, and Blanton and couldn’t win a world series because of an inconsistent offense. This Phils team is similar. It has a lot of big names in the lineup, but its offense is inconsistent, and the manager continues to ignore the team’s potential for a running game with guys like Turner, Stott, Marsh, Rojas, and Harper, and balks at the idea of removing Schwarber from the leadoff spot despite his .197 batting average and 215 yearly strikeouts. If the Phils do sign Snell, they may need to shed some salary. The media has been pushing for the Phils to trade Castellanos who makes $20 million a year, hits for average and power and plays serviceable defense, but trading Schwarber is what they need to do to free up $19 million a year and turn the DH over to a committee of Realmuto, Harper, Castellanos, Turner, and Bohm. As we speak, the Phils are no closer to winning a world series than they were last year. Changes still have to be made if the Phils really want to win it all.
I wanted to reply to idea of batting Schwarber leadoff versus in other spots like #3 or #5 behind Harper. I know commenters will probably reference newer analytical stats. an he has the potential to get more at bats as the lineup turns over. He is not fast, baserunning instincts unkown.
He strikes out a lot so 1 positive spin is all those times he isn’t hitting into douple plays and making 2 outs. If I was his manager I would bat him 5th.
I think he could have more RBIs.
I hear similar reasons why NYYs Aaron Judge bats in the 2 spot but he has a lot more footspeed than Kyle. For the NNY this year you could bat Judge or Soto at #2 or 3
Correcting
I meant …. turns over and he has …. unknown …. NYY
yagotta, Schwarber hits home runs, but does nothing else. Also, he usually hits them off pitching most other Phils hit well and he doesn’t usually hit them in clutch situations. In 2023, he hit .197, led the NL with 215 Ks, and was statistically the absolute worst defensive outfielder in MLB. He walks a lot, but then jams the bases because of his inability to run well. Some teams have been rumored to walk him for exactly that reason. In previous years, he has also led the NL in hitting into double plays. Considering his paltry batting average and his manager’s resistance to batting Schwarber anywhere but leadoff, the Phils have a handcuffed offense. This is unfortunate because, with the likes of Turner, Stott, and Harper hitting at the top of the batting order, the Phils could be stealing a lot more bases and scoring a lot more runs. Also unfortunate is the fact the Phils are getting older and players like Realmuto, Harper, Castellanos, Turner, and Bohm could use a day off defensively once a week but still get to hit if they were allowed to DH. However, Schwarber is the full time DH. The Phils who are supposed to be big on statistical analysis have evidently missed the fact that a DH by committee with the players I’ve named would give the Phils a much higher batting average and much greater speed on the bases than the Phils are currently getting out of Schwarber. Schwarber’s collective inabilities and Manager Thomson’s inability to see how much Schwarber’s inabilities are stifling the Phils’ offense are one of the reasons why the Phils don’t score enough runs to beat the better teams.
otb
Have you ever thought of writing n9vels
You seem to have a talent for fiction. Maybe just make it a bit more believable
fili, When you’re right, you’re right. I must confess that I am a storyteller, but my blog contributions are strictly non-fiction. Are you aware of the observation that fact is frequently stranger than fiction? Historically, that would seem to be the case with most Philly sports teams, including the Phils.
otb
“Changes still have to be made if the Phils really want to win it all.”
Non-understanding of probabilities on your part.
The Phillies, being a wild card team, had something like a (.5×.5×.5×.5) 6% chance of winning the WS. So, like a 94% chance of not winning
What you’re saying is that there’s something wrong with a dice that didn’t roll a 1 when you threw it. There was about 1 17% chance of a 1. And an 83% chance of not a one
The Phillies, and all contenders, should do what they can to improve their chances. They will always be much more likely to lose than to win
fili, The Phils could win the world series in 2024 with the addition of an additional proven starter, a dependable closer, and an impact bat, as well as a total revision of their batting order. Absent these changes, they will probably have a good year and get into the playoffs with a wild card, but not win the world series. The Phils look good on paper every season and have been lucky the past two seasons in the playoffs. Unfortunately, they’re not better than the Braves in the NL East and certainly not better than the Dodgers for the NL pennant. These teams have improved while the Phils were content to resign two starters at much higher salaries and essentially remain the same team that they were in 2023.
otb
“The Phils could win the world series in 2024 with the addition of an additional proven starter, a dependable closer, and an impact bat, as well as a total revision of their batting order.”
Sure
“Absent these changes, they will probably have a good year and get into the playoffs with a wild card, but not win the world series”
Did you not read or not comprehend my previous post?
No team enters the season or the playoffs more likely to win the WS than to lose it
The Braves are, almost certainly, the best team.
FG says they are 3 times more likely to not win the WS than to win
fili, I agree the Braves are the best team in the NL East and the Dodgers are the best team in the entire NL. You’re correct that “no team enters the season or the playoffs more likely to win the WS than lose it.” Likelihood is a function of probability, probability governs odds, and every team has different odds to win the WS before the season begins, before the playoffs begin, and before the actual WS is played. The odds of any team losing the WS is always greater than the odds of that team winning the WS. Nevertheless, certain teams are more likely to win the WS than others which, for all intents and purposes, is more germane to this discussion than a mathematical treatise on what determines betting odds. Finally, any team can increase or decrease its odds to win the WS by adding or subtracting players and managers, which is why the Phils would have a better chance to win the WS if they made the right additions and subtractions.
but trading Schwarber is what they need to do to free up $19 million a year
========================
But that won’t free up $19M. No one is picking up Schwarber’s full salary.
joe, Regardless how much the Phils might get for Schwarber, now is the time to trade him because, coming off a 47 home run season, his trade value may be at its highest. This time next year, the Phils may not be able to give him away. There are teams still looking to trade for a power hitter. So, the Phils may still be able to get a decent return for Schwarber if they trade him now. What’s important to understand is the Phils could create a better DH by committee with the likes of Realmuto, Harper, Castellanos, Turner, and Bohm, than they currently have using the .197 hitting Schwarber as their only DH. So, what they get for Schwarber in a trade might not be important as the $19 million salary they’ll be saving by trading him and the ways they can improve their offense with a DH by committee.
So, what you are really saying is that you want to replace Kyle Schwarber in the lineup with a combination of Garrett Stubbs, Edmundo Sosa, Whit Merrifield, Jake Cave, and Christian Pache? Remember – using a DH by Committee is really giving one lineup spot to a rotating backup. How is this improving the lineup?
kje, The Phils are fortunate to have the likes of Sosa, Merrifield, Marsh, and Stubbs as backups. Each player has a higher batting average than Schwarber, much lower strike out rate, much better running ability, and much better defensive abilities. I’m not sure if Pache and/or Cave will make the spring training cut.. The DH committee would be made up of Realmuto, Harper, Castellanos, Turner, and Bohm who all have much higher batting averages and lower strike out rates than Schwarber. So, the DH committee would give the Phils significantly better hitting than Schwarber and, although their replacements would not put up the same kind of numbers as the DH committee, they would still put up better numbers than Schwarber. Schwarber would be expected to hit more home runs than any of the other mentioned players, but the trade off would still favor the Phils, would free up $19 million in salary and, with the right trade, would possibly help the Phils acquire the added pitching they need. To his credit, Schwarber is very popular within the Phils organization, fanbase, and supporting media. He is also active in Philly community activities. Unfortunately, the Phils have entered a win-now mode and, that being the case, a .197 hitting leadoff DH who had more strikeouts in 2022 and 2023 than any other player in the NL and who can’t play defense may be a luxury the Phils can no longer afford if they want to win the world series. It would be an entirely different story if Schwarber could change his approach to hitting and bat .250 with 30-35 homers, 100 RBIs, and much fewer strikeouts but, at this stage in his career, such a dramatic improvement in his hitting seems unlikely.
1) Marsh is not a backup, he’s the starting LF most days.
2) I don’t care about Schwarber’s defensive skills – he’s going to be a DH the vast majority of the time.
3) In a limited backup role, these backups are solid. As a starter, their bats are too limited when you already have Rojas in a lineup spot.
4) I agree that Schwarber should not be the leadoff hitter on a team with Trea Turner and Bryson Stott.
5) You have an unhealthy obsession with Kyle Schwarber’s batting average.
kje, 1) Marsh will not be the Phils opening day starter. He should be when he gets healthy. He’s a good player with a lot of upside potential but, as of opening day, he’s a sub. 2) You should care about Schwarber’s defensive skills. Other than a homer every 4 games, he offers the Phils precious little for his $19 million a year salary. 3) These backups are as solid as it gets in MLB. They could all start for other teams and, with the plate appearances of a starter, they’d have much higher batting averages. 4) The fact that a manager would allow Schwarber to leadoff should bother you. Thomson argues the Phils win when Schwarber leads off. They would probably also win if Schwarber hit 7th or if they had a different DH. 5) You should look up the definition of obsession and also be concerned for a team whose DH hits .197. I like OB% better than BA as a metric of a player’s offensive contributions to a team, but having a player creating a logjam for other runners when he gets on base negates the fact he walks a lot.
Like I said, I hate Schwarber as a leadoff batter, otb. I’d much prefer Turner or Stott.
That said, Schwarber is a serviceable offensive threat. Is he a superstar? No. He’s the definition of 3-outcome player – Home Run, Walk, Strikeout. Don’t discount that he was second in the NL in walks, so that is some value to that. I certainly hope that he is closer to his career batting average, and that last year is a fluke. I’m just not about to blame him for everything wrong with the Phillies.
And again, Schwarber is a DH. He gets maybe a dozen games in the field in 2024. And Brandon Marsh will be the primary LF. He may not play Opening Day – we’ll see how the recovery goes – but he’ll get the majority of innings this season in LF. Schwarber won’t.
Win/Win for player and club. Phi is my sleeper pick for WS. Their grittier then both LA and ATL
3.6 ERA gets you 42 million a year
Insanity has exploded
LFG!! Great move Dombo and JM. Love it. #ringthebell
Lol Mets. Lol BVW & Wilpons LOL LOL LOL
Not insanity. Reality. Economics. If there’s any insanity anywhere it’s fans paying subscriptions, sports channels , merchandise , tickets on and on.
The fans build the pool that pay the players
If there’s any insanity anywhere it’s fans paying subscriptions, sports channels ,
=============================
That’s a crazy concept. I don’t see what is insane about spending money on things you enjoy.
I agree. I was trying to say since fans pay for the players , might as well say insanity too. Neither is insanity
I agree 100% with that. There really is no insanity. GMs and owners will make mistakes, but they always have a rationale behind it.
When the NYMs were signing everyone, a lot of fans thought they were going 162-0. It was a one-time lunge at a WS ring and the 3.5M fans that would come along with it.
It didn’t work, but I understood the logic.
42M – is Boras wrong for asking whatever he may be asking for a 2X Cy Young Award winner?
Snell is 5 inning pitcher but inconsistent as well. He’s either very good or very mediocre year to year. Those are the 2 issues
Is he wrong? No – his responsibility to his client is to get the best deal. Is he successful? To be determined.
I’m sure if the Giants, had it to do over again, they would still have traded Zack for Carlos Beltran back in 2011.
Just another case of a player who achieved success after leaving the cursed mets
Would rather have prime Randy Johnson
Would rather have an aging Randy Johnson… at a cheaper price.
Or a 28 year old Peter Rose
Overpay if you ask me.. great pitcher but not 42 per year great…
The only comps for a contract like this are ones that look terrible with hindsight. Sonny Gray got 3 years 75 million and it was a backloaded deal. Wheeler is better but is he really that much better? I don’t think he is.
Bita
ZiPS 3 year projections
Wheeler 10.9 WAR
Gray 5.7 WAR
I’d take the over on Gray . But I’d also take the over on Wheeler who has had a lot more sustained success than Gray
I also hoped my favorite team would sign Gray this off-season
The rest of the NL East is cheering this while simultaneously saying WTF.
Good signing. Wheeler has been the Phillies best starter over the past 3 seasons.
His $42 million AAV sets the bar for Snell on a short term deal. 3/110-120 with opt outs coming up. Will it be the Giants, Phillies, or Yankees. Or a mystery team?
Reminder that once upon a time the Mets were gonna DFA this guy just because Wilpons were mad that injured players cant play baseball
Good pitcher, good term, but the dollar value isn’t great. Dombo is good at a lot of things, but signing pitchers to extensions is usually a place he fails. We’ll see
Insanity. They will be a 4th time offender of the CBT next season. That $42M AAV for him will be another $46M tax. Like adding an additional $46M in payroll beyond what Wheeler is paid next year and not getting a player. Unless they avoid it by dumping a huge salary. $228M tied up in 9 guys according to Cots.
Wheeler, one player, was just extended for 3 years for an amount of money which will be less than what the Phillies cross state rival Pirates will spend this single year on ALL PLAYERS.
Noooo…… MLB salary definitely isn’t broken, not at all.
sickening.
PP
What’s broken is your comparison
Comparing 3 years to 1 year makes no sense.
That said, I, as a fan of one the biggest spenders, would be in favor of increased revenue sharing to even things out.
Money redistribution – a good idea in baseball and society
I didn’t read that this is 42 million annually. At 33, I’m not liking this deal. Didn’t realize the price was that much.
Lol the Phillies crack me up. It’s as if they think players don’t age. Their front office is like “we’ve found a market inefficiency in teams not willing to overpay players exiting their prime!”
Risky. Expensive. But fair contract. Mets gave 40 year olds similar $. Sure they are hall of famers who at time were elite although signs of decline were there. Wheeler projects better than they do because of his age and data. With contracts on the books the Phillies should be in win now mode so gotta do what you gotta do. Plenty worse contracts.
He is a big game pitcher for the Phillies. Last 2 Postseasons
Wins 4-3
innings 63
hits 36
walks 10
strikeouts 68
era 2.42
whip .73
what are Verlander and Scherzer post season stats the last 2 seasons?
@LR Please, comrade. It’s a tiny sample size.
These are great pitchers, but they all have bad games. Go through even a great pitcher’s seasons and he’s likely to have significant variation if you cut those seasons into postseason-sized chunks of 40, 50, 60 innings.
There go those billionaire owners again exploiting the players!
Ridiculous contracts. Too many rule changes, mlb growth & relocations and salaries are through the roof. Higher salaries = higher ticket prices… I still love the game.. but where does thus all stop?
Imagine baseball where the players play for the joy of the game, money is not an issue, your favorite player won’t opt out, the players are from the area, the players are not groomed like the Unabomber and it’s free or a couple bucks to watch! It’s called Little League and it’s great!
Tremendous player. Imagine the Mets in 2022 with Wheeler going for them.
The heavy, stinking hand of the Wilpons reaches out from the fog of history to strangle the future.
.
—–The value of 3/$126m to the player is that much greater given he signed it in the second offseason ahead of 2025-2027. On the assumption that there’s very, very little he can do in 2024 to IMPROVE any deal he’d get for 2025 and after, the effective value of the 3/126 signed now feels more like 3/140m, where the player gets insurance against any 2024 decline.
Dmac
“Higher salaries = higher ticket prices…”
Sigh
Wrong
People spending more money on baseball = higher salaries
Why do you believe that teams could charge more for tickets, and pay players the same, meaning the team makes more money, but, instead, charge less, making less money until they need to pay a player more?
I wonder if I’ll live long enough to see the first 100 mil per season mlb player ?
So are we to really believe that he wouldve turned down 3-99 ? If he does, hat tip and good luck. Dumb deal
I really like Zack Wheeler, wish the Yankees would have signed him when he was a free agent.
That salary is crazy and not good for the health of the game; he’s not a top-3 pitcher, not a top-10 player. Just crazy.
@MLBTR @mlbtraderumors Hey guys—Great site, but there’s a flaw in your comment system, in that if you’ve muted a commenter, clicking on the grey “Showing comment” box at the bottom of the page just sends the user flying to the top of the entire page.
If I may, why not simply send the user to his first non-muted comment instead of the user having to click on his “End” key to shoot all the way back to the grey “Showing comment” box. And, if several commenters and comments have been muted, it becomes an exercise in tapping the “End” key then clicking the gray box; tapping the “End” key, then clicking the gray box; tapping… and so on.
Thank you.
Can they get that Bryce Harper extension done now? He wants to be a phillie phor liphe.
Has anybody ever tried to use the SIERA rankings site? I think the article says wheeler ranks 15th since 2020 in some categories and I’d like to see who ranks ahead of him considering he just got paid like he is top 5 on the whole entire planet.
The Wheeler extension has spooked the supposedly aggressive NYC media. There’s the typical tabloid paranoia by a columnist/retro freak who can name-check athletes from other sportsball leagues but can’t say the two most dangerous words to any baseball club. Those words, of course, are Scott Boras.
Good for him as a long time Mets fan I always like Zack and it was another stupid move at the time for Brodie Van Lunchwagen; worst GM BB ever had.
BBC
Ok
G
MLB T R should have a vote on who’s the worst agent
Come on, Adams. “Strong as that group may be“ isn’t proper English. You can’t just leave out “as” to start the sentence. Grammar isn’t optional.