Phillies Reportedly Have Not “Seriously Discussed” Blake Snell

The Phillies hammered out their second recent nine-figure pitching investment this morning. Philadelphia’s three-year, $126MM extension with Zack Wheeler follows their $172MM guarantee over seven seasons to retain Aaron Nola in free agency. There’s been chatter about the possibility of adding the defending NL Cy Young winner to form an elite trio, but that has always seemed like a stretch — even for a franchise that spends as aggressively on star talent as the Phillies do.

USA Today’s Bob Nightengale wrote over the weekend that the Phils had interest in Snell if he takes a short-term contract. However, Matt Gelb of The Athletic reported differently this afternoon. According to Gelb, the Phillies have not “seriously discussed” a pursuit of Snell, regardless of the contract length required.

Snell declined a qualifying offer from the Padres at the beginning of the offseason. Gelb suggests the Phils weren’t interested in signing a player who rejected a QO, which would require them to forfeit their second and fifth picks in the 2024 draft and $1MM in bonus pool space for international amateurs. Philadelphia did relinquish their right to a compensatory pick by re-signing Nola, though that would have been only one draft choice that fell after the fourth round. (Snell is the only of the seven players who declined the QO who remains unsigned.)

Even independent of the draft compensation, the Phillies haven’t seemed a great fit for Snell since they retained Nola. Philadelphia has $246MM in player commitments for the upcoming season, as calculated by RosterResource. That’s a little north of last year’s $243MM franchise-record Opening Day mark. The Phils have nearly $262MM in competitive balance tax commitments. They’re going to exceed the CBT for a third consecutive season, leading to higher penalties as a three-time payor.

Philadelphia is already set to pay roughly $13MM in luxury taxes. Further additions either during the offseason or around the deadline will add to that mark. The Phils would pay a 62% tax on their approximate next $15MM in spending. That’d be followed by a 95% charge on the following $20MM and a 110% tax on any money thereafter.

A short-term contract for Snell would assuredly come with a lofty average salary, heightening the CBT commitments. A $35MM annual value, as a hypothetical, would add around $28MM to Philadelphia’s tax bill on top of the money going to Snell. It would also vault the Phils past the $277MM line that marks the third tier of CBT penalization, pushing their top pick in the 2025 draft back 10 spots in the process. A longer-term commitment could soften the CBT hit but would add another extended pitching investment to the Nola, Wheeler and Taijuan Walker contracts — which all run through 2026 or later.

Every team would benefit from installing Snell into their rotation in the short term. The Phillies have a strong starting five already, though. Wheeler, Nola, Ranger Suárez, Walker and Cristopher Sánchez is a good group. Philadelphia took a flier on Spencer Turnbull as a long man/sixth starter and added Kolby Allard and Max Castillo as further rotation depth. Prospects Mick Abel and Griff McGarry are higher ceiling options who could make their respective big league debuts in 2024. Andrew Painter is likely to miss all of this season recovering from Tommy John surgery, yet he should be a factor in the ’25 starting staff.