Pirates right-hander Paul Skenes won’t make the Opening Day roster, with Jason Mackey of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette relaying that general manager Ben Cherington has already informed the righty. The young hurler will remain in big league camp for the time being but will start the season in the minor leagues.
“I’ve thrown 6 2/3 innings in pro ball,” Skenes said of the situation, per Mackey. “It’s just kind of how it goes. [Pirates general manager Ben Cherington] said it would be unprecedented if I started the year in the big leagues. Not that I don’t think I can do it, but I understand it.”
Though it was a long shot, there was an argument for Skenes cracking the big leagues out of camp this year. The argument against it is simple as he’s still just 21 years old, turning 22 in May, and only just entered the professional ranks last year. But on the other hand, he’s dominated everywhere he’s pitched and has been built up to something close to a starter’s workload.
With Louisiana State last year, Skenes tossed 122 2/3 innings over 19 starts. He posted an earned run average of 1.69 in that time, striking out 45.2% of batters faced while giving out walks at just a 4.3% clip. Those results led the Bucs to take him first overall last year, after which they put him into five minor league games at the Complex League, Single-A and then Double-A. He faced 40 batters overall and struck out 10 while giving out just two walks.
Given the quality and quantity of that work, it wouldn’t have been outlandish to think he could break camp right now and toss 160 innings or so out of the Pittsburgh rotation. That’s especially true when considering the current rotation, with is front by Mitch Keller but has plenty of uncertainty beyond that.
The club added Martín Pérez and Marco Gonzales to be veteran stabilizers in the middle or the rotation, but there’s no guarantee they can provide that kind of service. Pérez got bumped from the Rangers’ rotation last year and finished the year with a 4.98 ERA as a starter. Gonzales only made 10 starts and logged 50 innings due to a nerve issue in his left forearm which required surgery. Beyond that, the other options are fairly unproven young guys like Bailey Falter, Luis Ortiz, Roansy Contreras or Quinn Priester. No one in that quartet has reached 200 big league innings pitched nor do any of them have an ERA below 4.73.
Despite that potential path to a role for Skenes, the club will keep him in the minor for now. But if he is putting up zeroes in the minors while the results in the majors are lacking, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see him up at some point this summer. The club will potentially be getting JT Brubaker and Mike Burrows back midseason, as both underwent Tommy John surgery early in 2023, but Skenes could still seem like one of the five best options in the coming months.
When Skenes does finally get the call, it could have an impact for both him and the club. If he misses the first few weeks of the season, he won’t be able to earn a full year of service time here in 2024, at least not the traditional way. To combat service time manipulation, the current collective bargaining agreement allows a player to earn a full year of service regardless of when they were called up if they have less than 60 days of MLB service coming into the season, placed on at least two preseason Top 100 prospect lists at Baseball America, ESPN or MLB Pipeline and then finish in the top two in Rookie of the Year balloting. Each of those three prospect lists have Skenes in the top 10, so he would certainly qualify if he were called up midseason but with enough time to get into the top two of the ROY voting.
Not getting a full year of service time here in 2024 would have an impact on his trajectory towards free agency and potentially to arbitration as well. Players need six full years of service to become free agents, so Skenes would be slated for the open market after 2029 if he broke camp this year and stayed up for good. If he falls short of one year, then his potential free agency would be pushed back a year to after 2030.
In terms of arbitration, players need three full years for guaranteed qualification but can get in with less. Of the players between two and three years of service each year, the 22% with the most service time get to qualify early. The “Super Two” line oscillates from year to year based on who is in that 22% category. Going back to 2009, the line has gone as high as 2.146 and as low as 2.115, with a full year being 172 days. That means that Skenes has a chance to qualify for arbitration after 2026 even if he isn’t called up until a couple of months into this year.
Seems like a ‘no news’ story. Zero chance he was going to be on the opening day roster, regardless of how he pitched
I can’t wait to see what they come up with next. Ahahaha!
I thought for sure they’d toss him out there from the beginning and send him right to the IL. I’ll give them credit for being smart about it at least.
What would be the point of this?
Right, waste service time by putting him on the IL.
Uhhhh that’s why i was giving them props for using restraint. I figured they would just toss their shiny new bauble into the fray. You people have a hard time reading and taking a compliment.
Bucs could have tried signing him to a multi year contract and buying out some free agency years.
This kid is the real deal and would instantly make PIT contenders in the NL Central.
But if Skenes doesn’t want that then Bucs will wait until June this year or next and he will be a Pirate for 6.5 years. Just bizness.
would instantly make PIT contenders
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He has 6.2 IPs in the minor leagues.
Cry about it, weirdo. Do better. It’s still of interest
Don’t want to start the clock that soon I suppose. I hope it’s for development aspect which sounds like it is. I’m just always suspicious with teans when they flat out say a top prospect won’t make the opening day roster.
Bro hasn’t thrown 3 IP above Low-A. This ain’t Kris Bryant or something.
Kris Bryant with the Cubs is the reason I became suspicious of teams but in this case yes, he needs more seasoning.
The ironic thing is that Kris Bryant could probably use some AAA work on his swing right now.
hiflew,
Optics would look bad if the Rockies did that outright. Maybe phantom IL and Bryant has to rehab playing with the Triple A team? Sounds better I think.
Oh it would NEVER happen because Bryant could become a FA and keep all the money. Doesn’t mean it shouldn’t happen.
Well then I hope Bryant at least regains his 2021 form, those would be pretty good numbers for your Rockies.
I just want him to add about 10 feet to his fly balls or take away 50 feet from them. He hit SO MANY fly outs to the warning track last year that I started calling him Warning Track. It makes sense because the fences in Coors are so much further back than the ones in the NL Central where he came from. Those balls in Wrigley or Cincinnati or Milwaukee would have easily been homers instead of outs. That is what people don’t realize. Coors is a great hitting park for certain types of hitters, but it is horrible for medium fly ball hitters like Bryant,
Bryant can’t be sent down without his consent. It wouldn’t be “bad optics,” it simply isn’t allowed.
Time is a flat circle.
The altitude makes the ball go farther.
Yes, about 7-10 feet on average. But the fences are 50 feet further out. Coors is about 360 down the line. It is not as easy to hit home runs there. It is easier to get balls in play, but home runs are more difficult. The ones hit that would be home runs in any park go further, but they still just count as one. The difference are the wall scrapers in smaller stadiums. Since outfielders usually play deep in Coors, especially visiting OFs, balls are rarely hit over their head, so those fly balls that hang and go 350 feet or so, become outs.
LSU rode him rough last year. I don’t think I would have thrown him at all. He only went a few games 1 inning each 2 max tops. I think 1. Needs to pitch every 5 instead of 7 days. Better to manage innings and pitches in minors. Absolutely needs to start in minors.
If he was ready they would still want that extra year. Wouldn’t do it as obvious as the cubs though.
The kid needs time to build up even if he dominates. He hasn’t thrown more than a 130 IP a year.
@dreamGM Agreed. Dude went from reliever in 2021 to starter in 2022 which is a big adjustment. Then jumped to pitching over 120 innings as a starter in 2023. If he started the year in the majors it would be insane. He needs to start in the minors. There’s got to be a track the pirates have developed for him. Things to work on or adjustments to be made when moving up and facing better competition. Heck, starting him in AA would be a good idea to get him used to high quality opponents.
Not everyone is MLB ready from the jump. And the Pirates have zero reason to rush him.
There is one big thing that he never has had to do yet and that is to pitch in a rotation every 5 days. He always pitched 1 game a week. A bit different to turn it around every 5 days instead of 7. That will acclimate him to a MLB rotation cycle with no pressure and he can get himself in a routine. Won’t hurt the Bucs by giving him an extra year of control in the process.
The Bucks won’t be *giving* Skenes an extra year of control, they’ll be giving it to themselves.
Ah typo. My bad meant to type them not him….oops
Also, it is Bucs not Bucks 🙂
That makes sense. And my phone autocorrected Bucs to Bucks.
Lol! Hate &##$&:autocorrect 🙂
Flop
Is his girlfriend going to dump him?
you saying I have a chance now? LOL
Well, Good Luck!!!
And Maybe
As for me, she would overwhem me
Only if you have money. I don’t find it a coincidence that they started dating after his contract was announced.
People dating someone because of $. I refuse to believe it.
Someone will say she has her own $ or makes over a million a year. But you can’t count on that and always want more.
I guess they actually like each other. He could get someone better looking as a good baseball player. She could find someone with more $. Any 40 50 year old billionaires interested in a little blonde 20 something gymnast? I think so.
Ohtani recently announced that he was married. Same coincidence after his Dodger contract?
If she isn’t worth more than him, I’d be very surprised
His girlfriend is worth a few million on her own. I don’t think she needs him to financially support her lol
Yeah, she posed for sports illustrated even. I guarantee she has more NIL deals than he even had
Ohtani’s beard? Am I the only one thinking that?
Ohtani is smart. All the money is deferred till after the inevitable divorce
Yea maybe her is 15 minutes of fame is over after college and his is just beginning.
According to scouts based on his girlfriend, he has confidence. Put him on the board!
It wouldn’t be “unprecedented” but it would be highly rare. I remember Jim Abbott went straight to the majors. So did Mike Leake. Garrett Crochet did it more recently as well.
None of that tops 1978 when two HIGH SCHOOL pitchers, Mike Morgan and Tim Conroy, went straight from the draft to the majors., both with with the A’s The A’s were in a massive rebuild at the time and they were trying to drum up interest in the team and possibly the pitchers. Both of them went back to the minors eventually, and it could be argued that it was extremely harmful to the career of both, especially Conroy whose career ended at 27.
David Clyde, Rangers. Circa early 1970s
Yeah I remember that story. A little before my time, but I heard how the Rangers ruined that kid.
Clyde was only just outa high school. Believe A’s did that a few times, bring HS P just drafted up to mlb to generate fan interest, Mike Morgan n Tim Conroy if I remember correctly. Can’t imagine that jump frm facing HS kids directly to pitching in mlb … insane.
I believe Sandy Koufax also went straight to the majors?
I believe Sandy Koufax also went straight to the majors?
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Koufax was a bonus baby. They had to spend two years on the major league roster before they could be sent down.
Pete incivilgia in the 80s. Happened with Conor Gillaspie in 08 with the giants, likely was just an incentive for him to sign though
Xavier Nady, Bob Horner, and Dave Winfield also did it, but I was concentrating on pitchers only.
Okay, Garrett crochet and Ariel prieto are the most recent. John olerud might count, even though he didn’t pitch in the majors. There’s a bunch from the 70’s though, different time
Olerud played for the Cougs in Pullman, didn’t he?
Maybe unprecedented for the Pirates?
It’s a business at the end of the day and although I think the pirates are close to competing, they are still fridge. So waiting a little longer with him (even if it’s a few months) isn’t gonna change the franchise much
If the Pirates are fridge, are they making Skenes chill – or cool his heels – in the minors?
If they limit his innings in the minors and build slow until his call-up, he could still be available in October. Long shot best case scenario. I know hitters are different, however when Cruz was sent down after spring training a couple years ago, he spent the first two months not being able to hit water if he fell out of a boat. So it’s probably 50/50 service time manipulation and being overly cautious.
If they need him mid season bring him up,and let the chips fall.Otherwise what’s the rush
Do the Red Sox miss Ben Cherington?
I guess the answer to that is another question: will the Pirates have a better record than the Red Sox this year? 40/60.
Bucs will have a willing record this season.
The spirit is willing but the flesh is weak. Ahahaha!
They will stronger as the year goes. Will be adding Skenes and jones to the Rotation mid year.
Considering the Red Sox have a shaky rotation now that Giolito is out for the year, even with some decent guys in the lineup, Pirates might fare better especially with the NL Central not as strong as the AL East.
The Red Sox miss John Henry not being cheap.
Not sure who’s cheaper now, Bob Nutting or John Henry.
I suspect the more pertinent question, considering the Pirates, is whether Skenes will make the Opening Day Roster in 2026 …
Will be up in June or September unless he is hurt or awful.
Guy is kinda overrated anyways. Bad built,not great control
Unattractive girlfriend too. Means no confidence.
Dream, this wasn’t unexpected even after your review yesterday. With Ortiz and Priester doing well, is it inevitable Jones goes down, too?
And can you foresee a staff of Keller, Skenes, Jones, Solometo and Chandler in two years?
When’s the last time a elite no service time starting pitcher has made the opening day roster? 1 they can prove themselves in AAA until there is little to nothing more they can learn there. 2 what do you do with the other 3 guys? You have 2 rotation spots and 3 guys. DFA trade Contreras because he has no options or put him in pen. Send Ortiz Priester to AAA even though they have enough time there already and need mlb competition. 3 they aren’t giving up a extra year of team control. Probably won’t pay a extra year of arbitration either. I won’t look for them until June.
Can’t see that staff. Someone will get tj surgery. Someone won’t make it as a starter. Every year just about every team is looking to add a starter. Pirates chances of not adding one are as good as any. Meuth Ashcraft Burrows Harrington and half dozen other guys could take a spot or two. All those guys could be starters and good ones and may for a short time but others but something usually goes wrong with someone.
A 45.2% strikeout and 4.3% walk rate is bad control? He’s also 6’6″. His foot is barely through the door and he hasn’t been around long enough to get overrated as a #1 pick. Sheesh… you must be a blast at parties.
Wouldn’t trade him for jobe or 5 or 6 other righty guys in minors
Straight to the majors has happened but it’s rare…..
No-brainer. He needs a couple outings in Triple-A first.
Unfortunate. Guy was destroying Spring Training batters. At least he should be expected to win the 2024 Spring Training Cy Young Award.
Destroying is a stretch. 3 innings, 3 strikeouts, 3 hits, 1 homerun. I think he will be an ace but if we are using 3 innings as some statement maker than both Martin Perez and Luis Ortiz have been better so at best Skenes may finish third on the Pirates for Spring training Cy Young.
I’m in York ,pa and I resemble/rejoice at this remark
Guess I’m an oldie,but(even though diehard Mets-mom took me to day games all the time we lived right near stadium)happy to see reds,pirates and orioles back in the saddle again(another 70’s Aerosmith)
Let him tear his UCL in the minors.
The DUMBEST thing the Pirates could do with this guy is start his clock and then lose two years of it to a TJ surgery and watch him walk before he really blossoms.
Or, he could get hurt in MLB when his team is 8-20 and in last place
Not shocking. He has to build up his arm for the 162 slog. You don’t do that with part of one minor league season.
What pitcher do you know that pitches that much? 145 innings is acceptable for a starter now days
Ideally, you’ll want to build a pitcher up where he can go every five days and give 200 IPs. For Skenes, the Pirates probably want to get him up to 160 IP next season. If he gets called up and starts a few games, 145 IP would be pretty good too.
It’s service time control. Bad look imo. He clearly is their best pitcher
No it’s not. He has 6 total pro innings under his belt.
It is a bad look — for the MLBPA — who agreed to this service time nonsense to put off the salary cap discussion for the past two CBAs. The Pirates (and every single other franchise, for that matter) would be absolutely stupid to add an extra year of arbitration to top end talent, especially one whose arb number in his final season could top $20 million if he’s as good as advertised.
What’s happening with Skenes (and a long list of others before him) is essentially the richest guys in the MLBPA intentionally lessening the earnings potential of every young guy breaking into the league by delaying their debuts in order to fatten their own paychecks. They should have never agreed to it, and the blame falls squarely on the union, not the team.
GSWfanklay
It’s service time control.
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1-6.2 IPs in the minors.
2-Innings limit.
If I where the pirates I’d start him opening day sign snell sign Monty and go for it. Your in a week division anyway
Pirates don’t give player options.
Maybe if we can bring Syd Thrift back from the dead and revive the wheeler dealer days, that’ll be possible. As is in this town of depressing sports teams that are going nowhere, why?
You’re*
Wow….with this news, the Pirates just killed numerous posts by Olivia Dunn of NJ who was counting on him making it to boost her NIL account…….awe shucks…….
english please
Reading comprehension is a skill.
I know there’s still 3+ weeks left in ST, but 4/5 of the rotation is still up in the air? Not time to pull the fire alarm yet, but in my mind that’s a pretty big concern.
Keller Perez starting for sure. Gonzales Priester Ortiz Contreras will get the other 3 and next man up. If some long shot beats them out like Anderson Fleming then that’s a good thing. My guess Priester goes to AAA and is next man up. Unless Gonzales is so bad they don’t care or don’t think or hope someone claims him.
Why is it a big concern? Every clubs waits to name their 5th starter because there is normally a competition for it. My biggest concern is Perez and Gonzales pitching behind Keller. That is really unnerving as you go onto Priester, Ortiz, Contreras, and others for the fourth and fifth spot. That raises the alarm for 4/5ths of that rotation. It’s not the prettiest rotation in the league and NL Central. I believe that is why so many predict a losing season. I believe the NL Central is wide open and anyone (including the Pirates) can win it.
With all that said, I think this was a wise move by the Pirates to keep Skenes in the minors. He is developing and/or working on 3 other pitches besides his fastball and I believe change up. If he can nail down 2 other pitches besides his fastball and change up, he’d really send his market through the roof. Besides the 4 seam fastball, I would like to see him adapt to a two seam fastball with the change. 4th pitch a sweeping curve to keep players honest. Mix in a slider or slurve as a 5th pitch, would give him a chance to get more ground balls with curve and two seamer. With those type of pitches, if used effectively, he can be a CY Young contender. So it makes plenty of sense to let him polish his pitches in the minors than in the majors.
Yeah, I have to temper my enthusiasm over what I see in spring training games because it rarely pans out when they come north.
They have a lot of box of chocolates guys comprising their starting staff. You can’t find any type of consistency and although he’s improved greatly, that includes Keller. Guess what I’m saying is they have some real Jekyll and Hyde types here and the stars are going to have to align for them to compete, even in a lackluster division.
No team has a “murderer’s row” of starters like LA seems to have. I get it. But this staff seems like a house of cards
Wait to you see the Skenes Splinker.
Up in the air? Gonzales has pitched once and was clearly working on something rather than trying to get guys out, hence the terrible line. Contreras is out of options and will either take Moreta’s spot in the BP or end up in the back of the rotation. Perez and Gonzales are locks at this point.
So only 2/5 remain, same as it was at the start of camp. Priester has been excellent, Ortiz even better, and Contreras has been ok. Jared Jones probably won’t break camp with the team, but has looked good as well. No reason for concern at all, unless you’re pitching like Josh Fleming or Bailey Falter. Falter is probably gone by the time the team heads north, Fleming is on a split contract, so he’ll head to Indy to serve as depth.
Jones has more experience in minors and should be the 5th starter
Keeping him down for 2 weeks to “work on his defense *sunglasses emoji*” ?
Even Strasburg pitched 50-odd innings in the minors. Coke like 200. Not one MLB team would have him on their opening day roster. This is a nothing burger. We’ll see him in June.
Who knew that roughly half of Strasburg’s professional innings would be in the minors? (Ok, I’m exaggerating a little, but not a lot.)
Even Strasburg pitched 50-odd innings in the minors.
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Prior spent 51 innings in the minors, then the Cubs increased his workload by 65 innings, and then by another 95 innings the following year, to a total of 235 IPs, including the playoffs, at age 22.
And his utterly brilliant talent was flushed down the drain and he was mostly out of baseball after age 24.
Why fans want pitchers promoted quickly seems bizarre.
I bet we’ll see him in September, possibly as a bullpen weapon for the playoff run if they are within striking distance. And next year has legit shot to break camp
All comes down to money. I hope he plays his way onto the team and theyre forced to burn a year. He’s as ready as they can be.
“Burn a year” being the key part, as it makes almost no sense at all to start Skenes in the majors, with other viable candidates (Jones) also ready and others (Brubaker) on the mend and due back after the first 6 weeks of the season.
What you’re proposing is that the Pirates give Skenes roughly 8-9 more starts this season (assuming he arrives in June) in exchange for at least $25 million more dollars (4 years of arb vs. 3), while also forfeiting another 25-30 starts on the back end due to the year they’ll lose in team control.
The players gave teams this system so they wouldn’t have to battle over a salary cap — the richest players stealing from the rookies. It hurts pitchers the most, because guys like Skenes can usually only score one big contract in their career if they manage to stay effective/healthy. So channel your anger at Tony Clark and his stupid-looking white Santa beard, because that’s where the blame falls.
I’m not angry at all, and I completely understand the process. I would prefer a better product, and the league would be better with him in it. Not even a Pirates fan, I’m a Jays fan.
I would too – and I think the service time thing HAS to be fixed. Career earnings after taxes, for most players, isn’t much north of $1 million because of the way the system is structured. The teams just replace you with the next guy under team control.
Even with Gausman and Manoah down, your Jays won’t start Tiedemann in the majors to start the season, which is a shame because he is better than someone like Wes Parsons, but doesn’t have a 40-man spot.
You don’t even have to cap AAVs to have a good system, you can simply limit the number of players on a team who can have a higher AAV than a certain number (let’s say $30 million – you can only have two), while also enforcing that a team must carry at least one player over $10-$15 million AAV and hit a certain overall payroll floor.
My point is that the union is at least as non-interested in a good product as the large-market owners are; neither seems to recognize the storm brewing as local TV is in a tailspin for over half the league.
He’s as ready as they can be.
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How so? Based on everything I ever read, it seems like a stupid idea.
Passes the eye test, albeit mostly in college. And the numbers speak for themselves? He’s polished and ready to go. Only thing in his way is salary suppression.
Could you elaborate on what you’ve read, and I’ll assume you watched him play in college.
He can press the issue by tearing up AA and/or AAA n make it obvious they’re keeping em dwn for contractual control. Knock the door dwn !
This I can agree with. But they still need to treat him gingerly. If he throws 160 IPs, simply so PT can be a .500 team, there is a decent chance they will regret it in the long run.
I hope it’s obvious too, because then maybe the rank and file of the MLBPA would start to understand just how badly the top 10% of the players screwed them by agreeing to the service time rules. Careers start later than ever (remember when a 26-year-old rookie was a crazy thing?) and end sooner.
Just agree to a cap/floor in exchange for “team control” to start ticking from the moment you sign with the team. Of course that’s off the table for a handful of owners and a minority of players, but they’re the ones who hold all of the power.
Smart decision for a whole bunch of reasons. Be patient, monitor his innings, let him learn to pitch every 5 days, and gain an extra year of control.
Why monitor innings? If every pitcher is a ticking timebomb why waste those throws in the minors?
Why even have the minors than based on that logic
Let dudes throw. 100 plus pitches a start. 32 starts a year. Six complete games. 240 innings pitched. Those used to be the standard for ace types
In high school, I was the main BP pitcher and often threw upwards of 400 pitches per week. Add in probably another 200 throws between warming up and playing in the OF. Never had an elbow or shoulder issue, never once did “arm care”.
Three things have changed dramatically in those 30-ish years:
1. Breaking pitches, especially sinkers (which really stress your elbow), weren’t as common.
2. No one threw with 100% effort on every throw. My BP speed was generally around 60, but if I uncorked one from the OF to home, it was closer to 75.
3. Youth programs don’t allow any kid to rack up more than 75-ish pitches in a week, so they never develop the muscles properly or a consistent, easy delivery. They also don’t prohibit kids from throwing breaking balls as early as age 9 – which is insane to me, considering none of them can even command a 4-seam at that age, let alone anything else.
It was very unlikely that he would.. like 0.0005% chance.
Looking at: Mitch, Marco, Martin, Luis and Quinn. Could be a not horrible rotation. If they’re doing allright but the team is far out of contention, i’d just leave Paul in the minors until callups. If it looks good give him a real shot to come out of spring next year.
If the team is close to being good and Paul is lights out in the minors.. call him up.
Still some free agents and possible trade targets that could give the pirates one of the better rotations in the division if they want to throw some money out there… they won’t but…
THe pen back end looks strong and the offense is hitting the ball out of the stadiums pretty well even though it is still spring training…
all this together makes me more optimistic than i was in December.
Not to throw a wet blanket on you, but Bradenton HRs are not unlike ones at Coors or Cincy. The most optimistic part about the offense is that everybody seems to be making more consistent contact, taking the mistakes deep, but also hitting a ton of stuff up the middle or the other way.
As for the rotation, they need only tread water for the first 70 games or so until reinforcements are ready. The group you named, plus Roansy as a swingman or in place of Ortiz, is good enough to do that, especially if the offense is even 75% of what they’re getting now. And the BP – I would be shocked if the Pirates don’t have the highest winning pct when leading after 6 innings in the Majors.
thats why i said even though spring training 🙂
“With is front” really???