The Phillies reinforced their rotation with a major extension and a major re-signing, but it was otherwise a relatively quiet offseason in the City of Brotherly Love. After making the NLCS last year, have the Phillies done enough to book a return to the World Series?
Major League Signings
- Aaron Nola, SP: Seven years, $172MM
- Whit Merrifield, 2B/OF: One year, $8MM (includes $1MM buyout of $8MM club option for 2025)
- Spencer Turnbull, SP: One year, $2MM
- Kolby Allard, SP/RP: One year, $1MM (split contract, Allard will earn $375K if in minors)
2024 spending: $35.57MM
Total spending: $183MM
Option Decisions
- Scott Kingery, IF/OF: Phillies declined $13MM club option for 2024 ($1MM buyout)
Trades & Claims
- Acquired RP Michael Rucker from Cubs for cash considerations
- Acquired cash considerations from Orioles for RP Kaleb Ort
- Acquired minor league RHP Michael Mercado from Rays for minor league RHP Adam Leverett and cash considerations
- Acquired minor league OF Hendry Mendez and minor league IF Robert Moore from Brewers for minor league IF Oliver Dunn
- Claimed SP/RP Max Castillo off waivers from Red Sox
Notable Minor League Signings
- Jose Ruiz, David Dahl, Cam Gallagher, Jordan Luplow, Ryan Burr, Austin Brice, David Buchanan, Ricardo Pinto, Nicklaus Snyder
Extensions
- Zack Wheeler, SP: Three years, $126MM (beginning with 2025 season)
Notable Losses
In an offseason marked by several top-tier free agents lingering on the market deep into March, Aaron Nola came off the market by mid-November. The Orioles, Blue Jays, Yankees, Dodgers, Cardinals and Braves were among the teams who were at least somewhat linked to Nola, and reports suggested that Atlanta was the most fervent non-Phillies suitor. However, Nola’s preference to remain with the Phillies led the righty to re-sign on a seven-year, $172MM pact, even though a larger offer was reportedly on the table from an unknown team.
It seems as though Philadelphia’s $172MM figure was at least close enough to this mystery offer that Nola opted to stay in a comfortable situation, and the length of the new contract could very well make Nola a Phillie for his entire career. Chosen seventh overall by the Phils in the 2014 draft, Nola has become a true front-of-the-rotation talent, capable of delivering both big innings totals and quality results.
This isn’t to say that the deal isn’t without a few red flags. Nola was more good than great in 2023, with a 4.46 ERA and a near-average 38.5% hard-hit ball rate. That particular metric is important for Nola given his tendency to allow a lot of barrels, so batters have been able to tag the veteran for a lot of home runs when they’re able to truly square up on the ball. Nola’s curveball was also just an average pitch in 2023, after years of being at least a plus offering and sometimes one of the more effective pitches in the sport.
Nola’s strikeout rate was still above average, and for the third straight season he continued to be one of baseball’s best at limiting walks. It also wouldn’t have been easy for the Phillies to fill all of the innings that the durable Nola has brought to the rotation, not to mention his behind-the-scenes status as a clubhouse leader. Though Philadelphia checked in with Sonny Gray as a potential alternate if Nola went elsewhere, both Nola and the Phillies preferred the familiarity of their longtime relationship.
Philadelphia’s other big rotation investment didn’t come until Spring Training, and it again involved the Phillies locking up an in-house name. Zack Wheeler is entering the final season of the five-year, $118MM contract he signed in December 2019, but he’ll now continue his Phillies tenure after signing a three-year, $126MM extension that begins with the 2025 campaign. The new deal keeps Wheeler in the fold through his age-37 season, though he hasn’t shown many signs of slowing down, as he finished sixth in NL Cy Young Award voting last year.
Neither president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski or owner John Middleton have been very hesitant about spending, and the Nola/Wheeler contracts continue the Phillies’ simple (but effective) strategy of upgrading the roster via high-priced, name-brand talent. The result has been an NL pennant in 2022 and an NLCS appearance in 2023, as the Phillies exceeded the luxury tax in both seasons. Even with Wheeler’s extension not going onto the books until next year, RosterResource estimates a $261.8MM tax number for the Phillies in 2024, again putting the team over not just the $237MM tax threshold but also the $257MM second penalty tier.
The tax considerations could explain why the Phillies didn’t do all that much this winter, though there’s also the basic fact that the roster is largely set. For instance, the door seemed to close on a reunion with Rhys Hoskins when the Phillies announced that Bryce Harper would be the everyday first baseman in 2024 and beyond. With Harper now at first base and Kyle Schwarber as the full-time DH, Hoskins (who missed all of 2023 due to a torn ACL) was the odd man out, and he instead signed a two-year, $34MM deal with the Brewers.
Wheeler and Nola headline a rotation that also includes Ranger Suarez, Taijuan Walker, and Cristopher Sanchez, and the everyday lineup also looked more or less complete until the news broke in early February that Brandon Marsh would be sidelined for 3-4 weeks in the aftermath of arthroscopic knee surgery. Marsh is back playing Spring Training games and should be ready for Opening Day, though it probably isn’t a coincidence that about a week after Marsh’s surgery was announced, Whit Merrifield was signed to a one-year, $8MM guarantee.
Merrifield’s unusual 2023 season included a spot on the AL All-Star team, but also a brutal second-half slump that saw him hit only .212/.250/.288 over his last 196 plate appearances. The cold streak cost Merrifield playing time in the Blue Jays’ lineup, and it wasn’t a surprise that both Merrifield and the Jays declined their ends of the veteran’s $18MM mutual option for the 2024 season.
As he enters his age-35 season, the right-handed hitting Merrifield provides some platoon depth behind the lefty-swinging Bryson Stott (at second base) and Marsh (in left field). There’s a chance Merrifield could get more playing time in left field if Marsh is needed in center field, as while Philadelphia would love to see defensive standout Johan Rojas win the everyday center field job, Rojas has looked overmatched at the plate in Spring Training. Rojas was more than respectable (.302/.342/.430) over his first 164 big league PA in 2023, though since he doesn’t have any Triple-A experience, the Phillies might choose to give Rojas a bit more time in the minors to begin the season in order to get his bat on track.
Jordan Luplow was also brought into spring camp on a minors deal, and Luplow joins David Dahl (another non-roster signing), Cristian Pache, and Jake Cave as depth options. Pache and Cave are both out of minor league options, which creates an interesting decision for the Phils as they decide who will earn the backup outfield spot on the Opening Day roster.
Dombrowski said in December that the team would look for additions “more around the edges” of the roster, considering how the team was lacking in major question marks after Nola was re-signed. This approach was manifested in the low-cost signings of Spencer Turnbull and Kolby Allard, who provide some depth to the rotation and bullpen mix. Additionally, Max Castillo was claimed off waivers and Michael Rucker was acquired in a deal with the Cubs.
This was pretty much it as far as bullpen additions, even though the closer role seemed to open up when Craig Kimbrel left in free agency. Philadelphia reportedly looked into Robert Stephenson, Jordan Hicks, Phil Maton, and Jakob Junis before all four pitchers signed elsewhere, and nothing much seemed to materialize between the Phils and Josh Hader, despite a lot of speculation early in the offseason that Hader was a natural fit for a team in need of ninth-inning help.
Strikeout machine Jose Alvarado now looks like the favorite for the closer’s job, though he had some injury problems in 2023 and has long struggled to limit walks. Any of Gregory Soto, Jeff Hoffman, Seranthony Dominguez, or Orion Kerkering could get save chances within the somewhat fluid Phillies bullpen situation, and the team would particularly love to see the hard-throwing Kerkering emerge as a legitimate bullpen weapon. Kerkering still only has two seasons of pro experience, however, and the rookie was sidelined for a good chunk of Spring Training due to the flu.
There are enough interesting options on hand that the Phillies might be comfortable with their bullpen for now. However, it wouldn’t at all be surprising to see the Phillies add another relief arm once teams start making roster cuts late in Spring Training, and Dombrowski might well seek out more high-leverage help closer to the trade deadline.
In terms of other big moves on the offseason radar, the Phils were among the most serious suitors for Yoshinobu Yamamoto, as the team reportedly offered the Japanese phenom a 12-year contract. Yamamoto ended up signing with the Dodgers for $325MM over a 12-year term, so it seems like the Phillies at least got themselves in the ballpark even if the financial terms of their offer are still unknown.
Yamamoto’s age (25), obvious talent, and the Phillies’ desire to increase their presence in the Japanese market combined to generate the aggressive bid, as this same perfect storm didn’t exist for any other big names. Philadelphia was only very loosely linked to the Juan Soto trade talks or to Cody Bellinger’s free agent market, and the club had some limited (and perhaps just due diligence) interest in Blake Snell and Jordan Montgomery. Since Montgomery is still without a team this close to Opening Day, the Phillies could technically still emerge as a bidder at the eleventh hour, even it doesn’t seem too likely that the Phils would offer the kind of long-term contract Montgomery was apparently still seeking as recently as two weeks ago.
The Phillies also added another year onto manager Rob Thomson’s contract, continuing the offseason’s overall “running it back” theme. Standing pat is justifiable considering how successful Philadelphia has been in the last two seasons, and there is also some reason to believe the Phillies could be even better. Harper is now fully healthy after two injury-marred seasons, and younger players like Stott, Marsh, Sanchez, Rojas and/or Kerkering could further emerge with more Major League playing time under their belts. The real test will come in October when the Phillies try to take that final step towards a championship, and as presently constructed, it looks like Philadelphia should again be in contention.
Bringing in “the Dom”, Dave Dombrowski has been the best thing to happen to the Philadelphia Phillies in a long time. The Boston Redsox haven’t been any good since they ran him out of town after he delivered a World Series title for them.
Good luck with a bad farm
“Bad farm”…People talk about all the farmhands traded by Dombrowski as though he’s trading studs, All Stars and future Hofers. But when you look at his career he’s acquired some great players while giving up very little of consequence. Name the last player(prospect)traded by “Dom” who actually amounted to anything. And as for the Sale contract, nobody bats 1.000 and it seemed like a good idea at the time. Boston ownership was definitely on board with the Chris Sale deal at the time(otherwise it wouldn’t have been approved)and hindsight is 20/20.
I’d encourage you to look at the team’s farm rankings over the years since DD took over.
@darkside…You keep track of the “farm rankings” and I’ll keep track of the World Series appearances and victories. And last time I checked they don’t give out trophies for “farm rankings”. Boston’s farm still sucks by the way(years and 2 gms later) and now they’re not even relevant during the regular season. I think 95% of fanbases would trade a couple years of a weakned farm for a WS victory and it’s not like the Redsox farm was going gangbusters before “Dom” got there.
Agree mlb fan….no team has a trophy in their trophy cabinet for “best” or “top” farm team…..farm players either supplement ML rosters or get traded for somebody else’s talent…..and they’re cheap which is why they are valued so highly…..the Yankees constantly get derided for trading their farm players away but doesn’t that just show that other teams value them…..and if it makes the ML team better…all for it….its about the WS and that trophy not “best farm team” ratings by any one of what 3-4 different rating systems……
But the Phillies farm system has improved since DD came to the Phillies. He’s made some good hires to boost scouting and player development .
Oh I give them B
Hate the Phillies, but they get a B. They did well.
They essentially kept the band together while adding some depth.
Ranger looks good this Spring!
Solid 84 win team
I’d take the over. They won 90 last year with Nola struggling and Harper missing a huge chunk of the season. 84 is definitely reasonable, but I could see 90 again.
I’d say 88 wins and WC1 or WC2
Yeah. I still have the Braves winning the NLE.
On paper looks similar to last year. Didn’t add much but didn’t lose much . Kept the Nola and Wheeler together is huge. Still a very good team . I rated it a C but mainly didn’t need to do much
I voted “D” just so see what DarkSide830 has to say about it.
This comment gets an F sadly.
The Nola contract is horrible and a huge overpy
C
Nothing moved the needle. Like the wheeler deal. Nola’s not so much
I gave them a B. I also like the Wheeler deal but felt the Nola deal was an overpay. I think 2023 Nola will repeat itself.
Right now, I have the division winners as:
Dodgers 97 wins (assumes Ohtani is not suspended)
Atlanta 97 wins
Cubs 85 wins
WC 1 Phillies 88
WC 2 Snakes 86
WC 3 Friars 84
Reds 83 (losing Matt, Noelvi, etc.)
SF 81 (up 4 due to Snell, Chapman)
Mets 79 (up 2 due to JD)
This is pretty realistic. I have the Padres and the Snakes swapped, but otherwise exactly the same. Originally, I had the Brew Crew winning the Central, but after the recent injuries, I’m picking the Cubbies.
They look the same as last year. Doesn’t mean it’s a bad thing.
They did everything I expected, but I think they should have made at least one solid bullpen signing. I would rather pay the money than prospects at the deadline. B-
You just know the ones giving them an F are trolling.
A-/B+. Given the Nola, Wheeler, and Merrifield action, it’s underrated how impactful a full year of Harper at 1B will be. LF instantly got better, and with a regression to the mean on Turner, there is a ton of wisdom in keeping the band together.
And good riddance to October choker Kimbrel.
To flip the usual script on the terminology, it will actually be a progression to the mean for Turner!
I’d like to see them add one more starter. Maybe Montgomery on a one year?
172 million could have gotten snell, Montgomery and Gray