The Marlins and free agent slugger J.D. Martinez have had recent talks, reports Craig Mish of the Miami Herald. The slugger has been seeking a two-year deal. Mish notes that the Marlins have been planning to keep the DH spot open and rotate Josh Bell, Jake Burger and others through that spot. There doesn’t appear to be a fit between the two parties at the moment, he adds, though one would imagine that’s in part due to Martinez’s asking price.
Even if there’s no current fit, the conversations are of note. It shows at least some willingness from Miami to spend further in free agency, and it adds a new entrant to the Martinez mix, should his price drop to a certain point. Presumably, if the price fell to the point where a typically low-spending club like Miami was comfortable, other teams currently not in the mix for Martinez would also show interest.
The 36-year-old Martinez just wrapped up a strong rebound season with the Dodgers, wherein he slashed .271/.321/.572 with 33 home runs. Last year’s 7.1% walk rate was Martinez’s lowest since establishing himself as a big league regular, however, while his 31.1% strikeout rate was a career-high. That could suggest an aging hitter who’s selling out for more power at the expense of his once better-than-average contact skills, but even if that’s the case, the results are hard to argue with. The question moving forward is whether that approach is conducive to further success — particularly over a multi-year deal.
Martinez posted off-the-charts batted ball data in 2023. His 93.4 mph average exit velocity, 17% barrel rate and 54.8% hard-hit rate all ranked in the 98th percentile of MLB hitters. When Martinez did make contact, there was practically no one who did so with more authority. Aaron Judge, Shohei Ohtani, Ronald Acuna Jr., Matt Olson and Matt Chapman are the only qualified hitters in baseball with a higher average exit velocity than Martinez’s 2023 mark. Only Judge, Chapman, Acuna, Olson and Juan Soto hit a higher percentage of their batted balls at 95 mph or more.
In Miami, Martinez would effectively be replacing Jorge Soler, who opted out of the final year and $13MM on his contract and eventually signed a three-year, $42MM deal with the Giants. Martinez, in some ways, is an older version of that same skill set: he’s a right fielder whose dwindling defensive prowess makes him best-suited for DH work, and his batted-ball data and production against left-handed pitching are elite, as is the case with Soler. Martinez has more even platoon splits than Soler, but he also struck out far more often last season than Soler.
The Marlins made practically no attempt to re-sign Soler, so it’s surprising to see them checking in with Martinez. Perhaps it’s simply a matter of trying to land a bargain upgrade for the lineup late in the year as the asking price on many free agents drop. But the Marlins probably do have enough money left to make a deal for Martinez work, even if his price hasn’t bottomed out. RosterResource pegs Miami at a projected $101.6MM Opening Day payroll — about $8.4MM shy of last season’s end-of-year mark.
Even if they’re not willing to stretch beyond last year’s payroll level — which probably would rule out getting Martinez on a one-year deal — the Fish could probably offer Martinez a backloaded two-year arrangement. The only contracts on the Marlins’ books in 2025 are Avisail Garcia ($12MM) and Sandy Alcantara ($17MM). They’ll also owe Garcia a $5MM buyout on a 2026 option.
That number will spike, as Miami has a huge arbitration class headlined by Luis Arraez, Jesus Luzardo, Jazz Chisholm Jr., A.J. Puk, Braxton Garrett and Edward Cabrera (with several other role players also mixed in). Even still, there ought to be enough room for the Fish to creatively structure a deal to bring Martinez into the fold — if owner Bruce Sherman green-lights that type of expenditure. Whether he’ll do so remains an open question. Miami sat out free agency for the entire offseason before signing Tim Anderson to a one-year, $5MM contract recently. The team has shown little appetite for free agent spending in recent years and has frequently been burned when choosing to do so (Garcia, Johnny Cueto, Jean Segura).
Yawn.
J.D. lives in Florida. Assuming he likes his home life, there has to be some appeal playing close to home, but money talks.
What is he expecting for 1yr? 7 mil? I can’t see teams wanting to go 10+ at this stage of spring training
I think any contract talks at this point.
Hey, JD, you want a job?
“Sure Tony”
“Sure Tony”..”Ding..ding..ding..250+ points for a clever “Scarface” reference.
Definitely not. A great hitter tho. Figured it out somewhat late and can’t play defense or run particularly well. Half of people go by WAR alone in that calculation and he has less than Nick Markakis.
That would be a homecoming for JD
Hard to believe he hasn’t signed already.
I assume his price tag has gone down but if he signs with the Marlins, they get a better, more consistent bat than Soler. This team should be trying to add, they got one of the Wild Card spots last year, give the fans a competitive team to watch.
Wonder what his original ask was? Was it a firm 2yr? Too high 1 yr?
Any ideas….?
No idea but turning down 1/14 from the Giants indicates it was more than that in terms of years or AAV
Roster fits are almost nonexistent for JD. At this point he and Boras are term takers and not term makers w/ regard to any K offer.
Good place for JD to retire. Or turns it up with one more good year.
With Bell and Burger, JD seems like a decidedly bad fit.
If the Marlins are serious about contending than J.D. Martinez is exactly the type of player they need on their roster
Likely will have to hit 500 hrs (or 450+ and a mvp or so) to see the hall as a pure DH. I can’t see it happening. Hall of good for JD.
Well in all fairness he wouldn’t be a pure DH for his career as he’s played plenty of OF. Detroit couldn’t afford to DH him if they had wanted to with Cabrera and Martinez.
Please don’t put Burger at 3B to accommodate another DH bat.
He will wear a Detroit hat in his induction to HOF. Only 100 more bombs
It will take a lot more then that.
Clutch, great in the postseason,no whisper of drugs, handsome
Career 30 war. Not even close
Jim Rice,David Ortiz
Why would JD wear a Tigers hat for his High School and College Hall of Fames?
LOL at Boras screwing up another one. Martinez had a very good year with the Dodgers, and should have been able to get a 2/$18m or 1/$10m done but instead they clearly got over their skis on the asking price.
There should be about 16 teams willing to give JD one year at $5 million
The Guardians are one of them and still have a screaming need for a right-handed run producer at DH. Unfortunately I don’t think they’d even go for $5M. They’d rather run the risk of torpedoing 2024 in the name of saving a few million bucks.
JD will almost certainly wish he hadn’t turned down other more lucrative offers reaching for the Scott Boras money bag.
Rumor had it that JD turned down a decent deal with the SF Giants. I have not heard any rumors of other offers that were actually made.
JD’s a “+” hitter. I’d be shocked if nobody else besides SF made an offer to JD. The Problem is the offers aren’t the multi year deals He’s been seeking imo.
I thought he was only worth a one year deal but early on I was thinking $15 to $17 million for that one year and now that seems unlikely. He does not cost a draft pick either.
2/30M should work with 20M in year two.
seriously? he’d have signed that deal immediately. 2/16 is more reality.
2 years, 21 million. 9 mil this year and a 12 mil player option for next season. Have to imagine Marlins can do this.
There are 5 teams in the hunt. He will get paid.
“He will get paid”..Boras takes his clients to the point of diminishing returns. JD will “get paid”, but not exactly what he’s been holding out for.
That’s a good fit. I’d like him in AZ but I wouldn’t pay what the Dodgers paid him out of principle, as he said he took a pay cut to play there. He should do so with Miami or anywhere else or it is an insult, especially if he wants a job as a one-dimensional player in a sabermetrics era. Not sure why he wasn’t more willing to give a discount to AZ, where he raked for a summer.
First almost full season age 26. DH level fielder for bulk of career. Maybe breaks 2000 hits, maybe breaks 400 hr. 133 OPS+
So, basically Joey Votto.
Give him 4 more years to square his seasons w Votto and he passes Votto in hits, HR, RBI in same # of games. Same # of ASG appearances, 1 silver slugger, more than Votto has and a higher slugging %.
They both aren’t HoF
Hot take. Votto is definitely a HOFer imo.cIf your gonna bring up OPS+ why not mention Votto at 144? Does the stat overrate him a bit…I think so. I think many stats like OPS overrate walks because they simply add OBP and SLG together arbitrarily. Who says they should be weighed exactly that convenient way? I know there are other OPS stats. Votto is almost a 300/400/500 hitter. That’s very hard to do. He isn’t just some walker. He is a walker who is also a really good hitter.
Votto is no more HOF worthy than Dale Murphy, Don Mattingly, Keith Hernandez, and David Wright, to name a few.
I will admit he’s borderline to a degree. I watched Wright play so much. To me he is definitely a HOFer. Idk why we expect these players to dominate for 15+ years. Wright was elite defensively and offensively. He was on pace to be a top 5 or so 3B of all time. That said about the 15+ years people expect, I don’t think Murphy or Don Matt deserve it. Hernandez is close. Idk.
We actually just saw a very similar player in Helton get in. The OPS+ is lower for Helton but that’s partially from playing in the steroid era and stats attempting to adjust for Coors. 2 high average, high OBP 1B with about 360 homers. Both playing in great hitters parks too. I think much of this is because we view 1B as a position of driving in runs and hitting homers but if Votto were considered as the perfect type of leadoff or #2 hitter (regardless of how much he actually did those things which was beyond his control) we would have a better picture of the true player.
Did you mean the Hall of Good? He doesn’t even make the Hall of Very Good… don’t get me wrong, he’s solid, but that’s all he is and is now in his waning years.
His asking price eh
AVAILABLE: one middle aged greedy pig
The Avi Garcia DFA Watch continues.
It’s an ongoing game of musical chairs, and the unsigned players ought take a long hard look in the mirror at this point (AND at their agent) and realize their “wish’ isn’t going to happen, and that most clubs have their budgets and rosters mostly set. If JD wants to play, sign a contract, even if its for $5 mill. Primary DHs should NEVER push the market to the very end.