Astros ace Justin Verlander will begin the season on the injured list, manager Joe Espada announced Tuesday morning (X link via Matt Kawahara of the Houston Chronicle). There’s been no setback for Verlander after he initially reported some soreness in his right shoulder, Espada emphasized, but the 41-year-old will simply need more time to get ramped up for the season. Espada added that Verlander is “doing really well” in his progression, but the team wants to be “smart” rather than try to rush the three-time Cy Young winner back for the Opening Day nod.
Verlander has tossed multiple bullpen sessions since initially revealing he was behind schedule due to his right shoulder — including one as recent as Sunday. Espada didn’t place a firm timeline on Verlander’s return, but there’s been no indication from the team or the player himself that any of his throwing sessions have gone poorly thus far. That’s all reason for some cautious optimism and to hope for a short-term IL stint that sees Verlander miss only a couple of starts.
Fans might be tempted to draw some parallels between the Verlander news and the Kendall Graveman injury that prompted the team’s signing of Josh Hader — but a short-term absence for Verlander doesn’t seem likely to push the ’Stros to one of the high-profile arms remaining on the market. Signing Hader cost the Astros a draft pick but only a 20% tax (about $3.8MM overall), and that move was made largely in response to a season-ending injury. Verlander’s case is quite different both in terms of his recovery timetable and the associated tax ramifications.
The Astros are already well into luxury-tax territory thanks to that Hader deal and are about $1.3MM from crossing the into the second tier of penalization, per RosterResource. Signing either Blake Snell or Jordan Montgomery would require incurring relatively substantial taxes and, quite likely, crossing into the third tier of penalty and having their top pick in the draft pushed back 10 places. Houston will be taxed at that same 20% clip on the next $1.3MM added to the payroll, followed by a 32% tax on the next $20MM and a 62.5% tax on the next $20MM spent. A $25MM AAV deal, for instance, would come with $8.9725MM of taxes. A $30MM AAV deal would trigger about $12.1MM of taxes. Adding anything more than $21-22MM in terms of AAV would also be enough to trigger that hit to their top pick in the draft, and Snell in particular would cost Houston their third-round pick. Like Hader, he rejected a qualifying offer.
Verlander’s timetable to recover will be worth keeping a close eye on not just for the potential roster ramifications and any contingency plans, however. He also has a vesting $35MM player option for the 2025 season that’ll kick in if he pitches 140 innings and if a third-party doctor confirms that Verlander does not have an arm injury (at season’s end) that’d keep him from being ready for the 2025 campaign. Notably, as a condition of the trade sending Verlander from Queens to Houston, the Mets are on the hook for $17.5MM of that option’s value if it vests and if Verlander picks it up.
It’s not yet clear just how long Verlander will be sidelined, but his season-opening IL stint paves the way for lefty Framber Valdez to make his second straight Opening Day start. He’d presumably be followed by a combination of right-handers Cristian Javier, Jose Urquidy, Hunter Brown and, if he’s healthy, J.P. France.
Like Verlander, France has been slowed by some shoulder troubles this spring, although all reports out of Astros camp on his progress have been encouraging. The team has not yet indicated that Opening Day is in jeopardy for France. If he’s also sidelined, he’d join Verlander, Lance McCullers Jr. and Luis Garcia as Houston starters on the injured list. In that scenario, right-handers Ronel Blanco and Brandon Bielak would likely be ticketed for the fifth spot on the staff.
Swoop in and sign a stud like Bauer to quell that sting.
Nooooooo? Really? That was so unexpected. I heard the MLBPA is watching these guys so closely now. Especially certain pitchers, so they can’t get the magic potions they used to get. .
@178 No you did not hear that. Unions do not look out to seek membership breaking rules. They represent in the event they are accused of doing so.
Kind of funny you have that ad a username. Intelligent people listen generally listen more than they tall and do a bit of research before making blind claims. A simple Google search on labor laws or the NLRB would show why that aoutright false claim you made is not just outlandish but an outright lie.
Let’s fix another lie and false claim here as well, go ahead and chop the 1 off your username….
People with a 178 IQ aren’t on baseball message boards flapping their guns, they are doing amazing work to better mankind, unless of course they are a misanthropic psychopath…
Its 178 on the metric system.
I’m not saying the dude has a 178 IQ, but it’s hilarious to me that you called him out on it when your post contains so many typos. They’re probably autofill typos, but I still find it funny. Glass houses and the like.
At this point I want someone to sign Bauer just to watch all you guys advocating for him turn on him when he sucks.
Cool. At least in that scenario we’d get to see the fans speak out IRL and his performance lend something to the conversation.
@Long Suffering Guardians Fan
I don’t think too many on here are fanboys of him. They just don’t see the value in having a decent # 3 starter not playing in the MLB when he would be playing for league minimum + incentives. If he is terrible, he only makes league minimum and is willing to be cut. We have guys who actually were involved with DA and are still playing on teams right now. Some of them got a decent payday as well.
@Old York
I don’t doubt that some people think that, but you and I both know there’s a whole other reason that some of the people on here advocate for him.
Bauer is better than a #3, and if he’s willing to sign league minimum with incentives that’s a steal even if he’s a #4.
@its_happening
I was watering down my argument because if I said #2 or #1, I’d have a bunch of anti-Bauer posters telling me how he only had 1 good year and he cheated and blah blah blah.
They’re tools.
What cheating are they referring to? Sticky substances? Ok, so hitters can use pine tar and pitchers can’t? Ridiculous claim as the bias toward baseball catering to hitters allow “fans” to overlook what’s right in-front of them. Hitters cheat in plain sight and nobody says a word.
Bottom line is that Bauer would affect a teams bottom line, and not in a good way. He’s unhireable.
Since yes, hitters are allowed to use pine tar, they are not cheating. Pitchers are allowed to use rosin.
Rosin isn’t pine tar. Stop it.
It’s not about Bauers performance he simply deserves another chance. If he gets it and doesn’t perform so be it.
Does he, though? No one “deserves” a shot.
Everyone deserves a chance to be employed at their trade or craft. Everyone does. MLB has a monopoly on baseball in America and therefore they owe him the opportunity.
This is Kaepernick 2.0. If he doesn’t get back in he’s going to sue. And he’s going to win.
Spoken like a long suffering “Guardians” fan who’s watched his own team squander opportunities to improve, win, deal chips and even change their name under a false premise.
He deserves a second chance like your city deserves respect once it decides they want to clean it up.
He won’t sue because he knows what MLBs investigation discovered, and does not want that released to the public. If he sued, that would become public.
You’re assuming MLB teams would be indifferent to pissing off all their female fans and any of their male fans fans who respect the women in their lives? Bauer doesn’t respect women, at all.
He’s worried about tarnishing his already tarnished reputation????
Nonsense
No not Bauer, any MLB team by hiring Bauer.
There are current players playing on teams who’ve hit women. Violently. Punish Bauer, punish all. Don’t punish those swinging at women, let Bauer play.
Your argument is weak.
That would be essentially swooping in and tossing a grenade into clubhouse. For HOU, it’s not about public optics but sustaining a standard of team culture.
The culture of Cheating!
@kingsfan1968
Baseball’s culture has been filled with various forms of cheating. Many of the players enshrined in the HOF are cheaters and others got in because they knew someone on the veteran committee. It’s time to acknowledge that the Astros so-called cheating scandal is nothing more than a continuation of baseball culture over the decades.
They could start acknowledging this now by signing Trevor Bauer and say “enough’s enough” already.
Tyler Bauer is not well liked in Houston. He wouldn’t fit in here.
And water is wet
41 year olds take longer to heal.
Father time is undefeated.
If only he would’ve just had a long period of time to get ramped up. Something like an off season or something.
He even had an extra day this year
The last time Im going to say it. Just because a starter is injured to start the season, doesn’t mean a team will suddenly change their view and drop 25-35 million on Snell or Montgomery.
It depends on the situation. The Giants needed rotation help before the injuries. Houston did too.
Unsure what the Astros did here. You see father time doesn’t forgive and the Astros gave up a bunch of top prospects for an old dude with an injury history as an old dude.
@Sour he just started 27 games in his age 40 season and 28 games in his age 39 season which he won Cy Young Award. The only real injury he’s had “as an old dude” was TJS, not sure I’ve ever read any association of tearing ones UCL and TJS.
Not sure 2 prospects with only one(Gilbert) being that highly rated is a “bunch”.
TJ surgery at his age is not the best for his arm. Clifford was also well regarded. Gilbert looks like a stud in the making but the jury will be out on this.
Well he’s already returned from that TJS had the 2nd best season of his career and won his 3rd Cy Young. So again I don’t see in any way how he is injury prone. And again they traded 2 prospects not a bunch as you said.
Article states: “and if a third-party doctor confirms that Verlander does not have an arm injury (at season’s end) that’d keep him from being ready for the 2025 campaign. ”
– What if he has a leg injury or a head injury? Would they still keep him for the 2025 season? Just asking for clarification.
The clause in his contract is specific to an arm injury that would carry into the 2025 season. In essence, he gets the player option as long as he reaches 140 innings and is not staring down another Tommy John surgery, shoulder surgery, etc.
@Steve Adams
Interesting. Thanks for the clarification.
I would say as long as he pitches 140 innings before his leg or head injury and the choosen doctor clears his arm from injury it would be a player option and thus Verlander‘s discretion whether to stay and trigger the $35mm option for 2025 and out of the Astros hands.
At least that’s how I read it… could be wrong 🙂
Verlander’s cranium/head looks to be getting larger and larger every year.
I’m pretty sure everything gets larger around Kate Upton.
Win.
Eh, I always thought her primary characteristic was appearing… bovine.
No offense to fans of that ilk.
Do the Mets get to collect on their insurance (assuming they had it) for the portion of his salary that they’re paying for the time he’s on the IL? I guess there’s probably a waiting period even if they could.
@Bill I’ll venture that insurers write that policy as “non-transferrable” given they’d have no control over to whom he’s traded—could be a team that abuses pitcher’s arms, for example.
Good news for the Mets.
Where does France stand as well?
Europe.
This is where it lies.
I wonder what his wife thinks? Quick, someone from MLBN interview her right now! LOL
Verlander and Scherzer are turning out to be poor investments. They did not find the Fountain of Youth.
I never understood paying them that amount of money at their age.
Either way, id love either of them on my team this year.
Which is why they weren’t terrible deals for Arlington or Houston. They are paying Pennies on the dollar and just had to give up some prospect capital who may or may not hit.
Merchandise sales, box office draw, and potential HOF upside, at the very least.
@Phree4u The Mets were having trouble getting FAs, so they had to wildly overpay for Scherzer, topping LAD’s bid by about 20%. He was also a mere stripling of 37 in 2022, and put up a 169 (!!) ERA+. that year. Even in 145 innings he was worth 5.4 bWAR.
The predictable falloff in 2023 at 38 still left him with 3.3 bWAR. He doesn’t rate to be much worse than his salary across the 3 years he was signed.
As for Verlander, Steve Cohen’s ad hoc GM’ing the first two years had left the Mets at least two pitchers short of a contender’s rotation, so it was more semi-desperation on his part than it was intelligent team building. Even with a ‘bad’ year by his lights, Verlander threw 162 innings w/ an ERA+ of 134.. For 95% of MLB starters that would be a career year.
As you imply, they’d improve every team in baseball in 2024.
Jv should just retire. Go live nice life with supermodel wife
Please please please just don’t trigger the vesting option please
Sounds like everyone here is on the side of Father Time. YAWN.
If you’re over 40 you should be rooting for these two guys, Verlander and Scherzer.