MARCH 3: The Giants officially announced Chapman’s signing and the terms, with the additional detail that the contract includes a mutual option covering the 2027 season.
Chapman will receive a $2MM signing bonus and a $16MM salary in 2024, plus a $2MM buyout on the $17MM player option for 2025. If the third baseman remains in his contract through the 2025 season, he’ll have an $18MM player option for 2026 with a $3MM buyout attached. Should he remain in his contract through those three seasons, Chapman and the Giants will share a $20MM mutual option for the 2027 season, with a $1MM buyout if either party declines their side of the option.
MARCH 1: Matt Chapman is headed back to the Bay Area. The four-time Gold Glove winner has reportedly agreed to terms with the Giants on a three-year, $54MM guarantee. The Boras Corporation client can opt out after each of the next two seasons.
He’ll make $20MM this season, followed by successive $18MM and $16MM player options. The contract has an $18MM average annual value for competitive balance tax purposes. San Francisco will need to make a 40-man roster move once the deal is finalized.
Chapman, 31 next month, reunites with Giants president of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi and manager Bob Melvin. He’s familiar with both from his early days with the A’s. Chapman was a first-round pick by Oakland in 2014 and debuted three years later. He stepped in as one of the sport’s best all-around players.
The Cal State Fullerton product put up a .255/.336/.503 batting line through his first three and a half seasons. He paired that with the best third base defense in the American League. Chapman finished among the top 10 in AL MVP balloting in 2018 and ’19, securing Gold Glove honors in both years.
Chapman’s 2020 season was cut short by a labrum tear in his right hip. He underwent surgery that September, shutting him down for the year. While it wasn’t clear at the time, that injury has proven to be something of a turning point in his career. His offensive production hasn’t been the same since he made his return.
The right-handed hitter stumbled to a career-worst .210/.314/.403 line in 2021. The A’s dealt him to the Blue Jays the following offseason. Chapman’s offensive production ticked up slightly in Toronto, but he hasn’t found his 2018-19 form outside of a scorching April last year.
After a .229/.324/.433 showing in 2022, Chapman entered his platform season looking to reestablish himself as a middle-of-the-order force. He began the year as the hottest hitter on the planet. Chapman mashed at a .384/.465/.687 clip through the end of April. While he’d cut his strikeout rate to a 22.8% mark in the season’s first month, his whiffs spiked as the summer approached. A dismal May kicked off what proved to be a disappointing finish to his Jays tenure.
Over his final 467 plate appearances, Chapman hit .205/.298/.361 with a strikeout rate near 30%. By the second half, he was often hitting in the bottom third of the lineup. The Jays briefly sent him to the injured list in late August for a sprain of the middle finger on his right hand. It’s possible that had an adverse effect on his offense, but the biggest concern is that he didn’t sustain the strides in contact rate he had seemed to make early on.
That presented a tough evaluation for teams as he hit the open market for the first time. Even if he’s no longer an MVP-caliber player, Chapman is still an above-average regular. He has drawn walks in more than 10% of his plate appearances in each of the last three seasons. He connected on 27 homers in both 2021 and ’22. That dipped to 17 longballs a year ago, yet that’s not a reflection of a drop in his contact quality.
Chapman actually hit the ball harder than ever last season, averaging 93.5 MPH in exit velocity. He made hard contact (defined as 95+ MPH) on 56.4% of batted balls. That was the highest rate for any qualified hitter in the majors, narrowly ahead of impact bats like former teammate Matt Olson, Juan Soto, Ronald Acuña Jr., Rafael Devers and Shohei Ohtani.
He remains an asset on the other side of the ball. Chapman’s defensive grades aren’t quite as eye-popping as they were early in his career, but he’s still a plus at third base. Both Statcast and Defensive Runs Saved have rated him as an above-average defender in every season of his career. That includes an estimated three runs better than par by Statcast and an excellent +12 mark from DRS over more than 1200 innings last season.
Infield defense was an issue for the Giants, particularly on the left side. San Francisco led longtime shortstop Brandon Crawford walk in free agency. They’re set to turn that position to 22-year-old Marco Luciano. Incumbent third baseman J.D. Davis drew mixed reviews from defensive metrics last season. There’s no question that Chapman will be an upgrade on that side of the ball. While there had been some speculation the Giants could consider kicking Chapman up the defensive spectrum to shortstop, Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle reports that he’ll stick at the hot corner at Oracle Park.
San Francisco has targeted Chapman throughout the offseason, having been tied to him as early as the middle of November. They were content to wait out the market as he was one of a handful of top free agents who lingered well into Spring Training.
A $54MM guarantee certainly isn’t what his camp had in mind at the beginning of the offseason. Chapman had reportedly declined a 10-year, $150MM extension offer from the A’s back in 2019. He also reportedly passed on an offer from Toronto that would’ve topped $100MM at some point before he got to free agency. Whatever asking price he had set at the beginning of the winter wasn’t met. As with fellow Boras Corporation client Cody Bellinger, Chapman turned to a short-term deal that gives him the chance to get back to the market next offseason instead.
He was one of seven players to receive and decline a qualifying offer in November. The QO would have been valued at $20.325MM, a hair above what he now stands to make next season. This contract structure is certainly preferable to taking the qualifying offer — there’s added security built in via the player options in case he struggles or suffers an injury — but the end result could be similar. The likeliest outcome is that he collects a $20MM salary in 2024 and retests the market next winter.
It remains to be seen if it would treat him more kindly the next time around. He’d be entering his age-32 season with a profile that is heavily dependent on defense. Chapman won’t be eligible for another qualifying offer — players can’t receive that more than once in their careers, per the CBA — but he’s unlikely to be the clear top free agent at the position, as he was this winter. Alex Bregman headlines next year’s third base class, which will also include Davis.
The Giants surrender their second-highest pick in the upcoming draft (#51 overall) and $500K in international signing bonus space to add a player who had declined the QO. The Jays were one of eight teams that paid the luxury tax last season, so their compensation is minimal. They’ll get an extra draft choice after the fourth round, roughly 136th overall.
It’s a bigger penalty for the Giants than it is compensation for Toronto. It’s one the Giants are nevertheless happy to pay to get Chapman at a price well below what they could have expected coming into the offseason. (MLBTR predicted he’d receive six-year, $150MM pact at the start of the winter.) The contract pushes their 2024 player payroll to roughly $183MM, as calculated by RosterResource. They’re around $231MM in luxury tax obligations, keeping them $6MM shy of next year’s threshold.
If they want to avoid the CBT, that wouldn’t leave a ton of room for in-season acquisitions. It’s possible they’re comfortable exceeding the threshold for the first time since 2017. San Francisco has been tied to Blake Snell (and to a much lesser extent) Jordan Montgomery. They’re still in clear need of rotation help, particularly after expected #5 starter Tristan Beck underwent surgery on Friday to address an aneurysm.
Forfeiting a draft choice to sign Chapman to a contract that allows him to opt out after one season is the clearest win-now move of San Francisco’s offseason. They’ve also brought in Jung Hoo Lee to take center field, Jorge Soler at designated hitter, and signed Jordan Hicks to a four-year pact to transition to the rotation. Revamping the lineup to that extent without adding more certainty behind Logan Webb, Hicks, and rookie Kyle Harrison seems unlikely.
Davis is set for a $6.9MM salary in his final season of arbitration and just lost his spot in the starting lineup. Soler and Wilmer Flores are ahead of him as right-handed hitters who’ll factor in at DH at first base, respectively. Flipping Davis to a team that needs third base help before Opening Day could clear spending room for the Giants and seems the best outcome for him personally. There’s very likely more to come at Oracle Park in the next three weeks.
Jon Heyman of the New York Post first reported the agreement, opt-outs, and salary breakdown. Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.
Oh a midnight signing
How exciting
Only 9:00pm here.
Timezones go brrrrrrrrr
Well…..if the Orioles had signed him
@Lefty: Well…..if pigs had wings
Orioles have wings
They certainly do
They might
That would have been a waste of resources.
Never
But the Orioles don’t need him.
Of course pigs can fly, have you not heard of pork choppers?
I think about Maxwell in the GEICO commercials.
Giants now sign Blake Snell.
Third place here they come!
Since they seem to be all in for contending why stop now and sign a SP that’s most important right now with Winn and Beck injuries. Then you have Hicks and Harrison both which don’t have any Experience and if they do well they won’t see more than 140-150inn. Luckily they have Cobb and Ray expected to be back after the AS break. They need Clevinger or Montgomery if they don’t sign Snell. Montgomery thinks he deserves a big contract after his 23 season. Dude has only won 10 games 1 time lol and wants top pay.
In at the last hour. 1 more and we would need to wait until morning when MLBTR woke up.
Thank you Zaidi. Midnight (EST) or not, finally Zaidi addressed a significant offensive & defensive need by getting Chapman.
Zaidi’s next move needs to immediately sign/trade for a top of rotation SP (Snell Montgomery Bieber Cease Luzardo Valdez). With Beck having surgery & uncertainty of Winn’s elbow Zaidi can’t afford to stand pat. Nor can Zaidi rely on other prospects in camp to step up. Giants need another top of rotation veteran SP especially with Cobb & Ray not returning until 2nd half of season.
Redwolves: I think this is a good move; but how does it address their offensive needs? He does have power, but last season was offensively abysmal for ~80% of the season.
“ Over his final 467 plate appearances, Chapman hit .205/.298/.361 with a strikeout rate near 30%.”
And he still had a better WAR then Machado and Bellinger lol. Who are making much more money. It’s a good signing and should fit in well with the Giants.
Yes, very inconsistent hitter now. I still would have signed him though as he is a little better than the Jays have have right now.
For that amount, I agree. I’ve always liked Chapman.
He’s not getting much more than LeMahieu and has the same career WAR in 7 years vs 13 years.
Yeah, I get that Chapman is phenomenal defensively; but the point is: he doesn’t really help their offense as the OP stated. And, I was not in favor of the DJ Re-signing despite his fantastic performance. We had other needs at the time, none of which necessitated another aging IFer.
It does fit their needs offensively. Schmidt or JD Davis playing 3b don’t seem to compelling. Schmidt is just a career minor leaguer. He didn’t even do good in the minors. He had some of the weakest contact rating last year. So Chapman helps quite a bit. Replacing a career minor league 3b for a top 5 WAR 3b seems much improved to me.
Hm, from the perspective I’d have to agree with you. Chapman is certainly a better option, imho, than the other two. I was referring to the term “fixing the offense.” I only meant that I don’t think he is going to be a huge impact. Better than the other two? Yeah, you’re correct, imo.
Take his HR per AB and compare it to Kris Bryants. Chapman has him beat barely throw in the Premier D and in his 31 year season. 3 year deal at his amount is good. He could of gotten 100+ million from the Bluejays. He probably was sick of playing there.
Yeah, I honestly thought he would be in the $125MM range. This was a shockingly good deal (from what I thought he’d get). Plus, I really think he wanted to play for Melvin again.
I picked the Yankees to sign him at the first of the off-season. Some players can go to Yankee stadium and do well I don’t think Chapman would. He didn’t like the fact he had to get the jab to play in Canada.
Heck he’s not getting much more than Lee who has yet to play in the MLB. I bet verdugo ends up having a better year than Lee. I think the Yankees will have the 3rd best record this year. Hate to admit it. I think Volpe breaks out this year and rodon bounces back.
Boy, I hope you’re right about that. I could see the Yanks doing that well, but with their downward trend, I could also see a third-place AL finish. I am variously optimistic though.
As for Volpe, you couldn’t hope for a kid with a better attitude. He’s a throwback in that respect and it’s really cool to see.
YC. As a fellow Yankee fan, I can completely understand and relate to your feelings about this upcoming season for the pinstripes. As a fan, the last couple season’s have been very LONG and tough to watch. However, I really believe this is going to be a special(in a good way) season for the Yankees. As brutal as last season was, I think it may end up being the best thing that could have happened to this current core group of player’s. I really believe they were embarrassed about how they performed last year and it has/will motivate them to really turn things around this season. I think we’re going to see a much more focused and motivated team this year. Guy’s like Big G,Rodon,DJ, Rizzo, Nestor will all have bounce back year’s, and the addition of guy’s like Soto, Verdugo, and Grish will all be a welcome addition. I predict they win 100-games, Win the AL East, and will play for the AL Pennant(that’s as far as I want to go with my prediction, don’t want to jinx them!) Judge will have a monster year, and lead by example and get the Yankees back on top where they belong. Save this post for receipts
Bam
No more roster additions my arse.
I feel like that was more lip service to deal with Mr. Boras. But either way, we got our guy!
Always anticipate the opposite of what is said.
Luciano’s range just got better too.
I’m happy for the Giants. I’m even happier that the Cubs didn’t offer an extended contract of any sorts. Give the prospects and Morel a shot.
yes give the rooks a chance
If it wasn’t for the 2018-19 seasons no one would think this guy is a star. A solid player but not a star.
He plays excellent defense with an averageish bat for 3B. He’s in his 30’s so defense will start to decline soon and then there’s nothing special left.
Shaw will be up soon enough, so let’s see how good the Cubs will be with a new manager.
And he’s getting paid a fair wage with 3 years. That’s a pretty good signing. Top 5 3B in WAR last season 4.4 with having a terrible second half.
I thought that Ross did quite the serviceable job last yr, w/ no experience… W/ the mgr upgrade for the sCrUBS, I would think that the Counsell add could be as much as a +8
(war/mgr equivalent). And until Marmol is unemployed, my team will cont. to languish.
Wouldn’t their guy have been a pitcher?
Hey don’t need a stud SO FA. Flip JD for a journeyman 5th starter / innings eater go help hold the fort for Cobb and then Ray.
The $7m they save in JD’s salary should offset.
In my opinion. SF needs to keep JD Davis to play first base. So SF can have Davis in case opts after 2024. Then they could move Davis back to third and have Flores play first. SF then could trade LeMonte Wade, Austin Slater,and Joey Bart to Milwaukee for Willy Adames and a minor league player. Giving Marco Luciano a full season at triple A. Of course this all is just my opinion.
Why would the Brewers want any of those players? Wade and flores were far better players last year than davis.
What about Wilmer Flores? They need to trade JD for sure. Let Wilmer and Wade play 1st trade Davis to Marlins for Trevor Rogers.
Why would Milwaukee do that?
I would say its in line with what Candelario got. He’s better, but not 6/150 better.
I mean he’s rapidly declining and hit like Gallo the majority of last year. This deal is pretty solid for him
Is 3.5 fWAR good? I forget
He’s in his 30’s and his value is mostly about his D. That will crater fast.
Crawford’s D was great thru age 34 season, no reason to think another elite defender can’t do the same or better. Hater
Major hip surgery
His D is already declining.
It’s so bad he won the gold glove this year.
Yes, but he used to get platinum. /s
I dint want the jays to resign him but if this was the deal paying 10 more then they stupidly gave IKF by acting early and over estimating the market is a thing they have done 2 or 3 times now. They did it when they offered Encarnacion 3/60 and when he said give me a few days they jumped on kendrys Morales for 3/60. All that being said i would think that for at least 3-4 years he would still he in the top 10 or 12 3B at least and with 20 HR power as his floor its not a bad deal by any means even if he says for 3
Morales was 3/33 which was the year teams finally backed off 1b/DH types on big deals in 2016.
His D has been elite, but in saying that don’t put to much emphasis on gg awards. Many winners have not been that great defensively. Chapman has tho.
atkins is useless !!
If 20 HR is his floor, please explain the 17.
Then they jumped on Pearce and then paid Bautista above the QO he turned down when they did not have to. Plus the Jays had Smoak. That gave them a 1B, two DH’s and an aging OF who needed to DH.
One of the worst offseason performances that lead to a worse trade deadline. Jays fans told us to trust the process. How’s that going?
Missed 22 games and played through a finger injury?
Styme must be wondering why guys didn’t hit 20 bombs in the 60-game 2020 season.
With defensive metrics the gold glove award typically does go to the best defender at the position, however you are right about the gold glove in the past. Derek Jeter was an awful defender but constantly was awarded the gold glove.
I have mixed emotions on the signing, it’s pretty much on par what I thought he would get and there is real value on the surface of the deal but losing a draft pick for Chapman is a bitter pill to swallow given the best case scenario is he opts out of his deal.
People really need to stop blaming his finger boo boo for his lack of offense last season because he was horrible before that as well.
I hope Chapman rebounds and puts up numbers closer to his career average next season and for several seasons after
Drasco, there ways to poke holes at Chapman’s deficiencies. But let’s stop saying Chapman is not a 20 hr guy. Yeah he hit 17 last year. If you’re going to say he’s not a 20 bomb guy, that injury and missed time is coming out to play.
Agreed. I have had it with Shapiro the organ grinder and his monkey Atkins. They believe the Jay fans are ignorant and they can get away with putting out semi good teams and we will be content. Get rid of both of them! Now !
Wisdom is a 40 home run guy if he played everyday, so what?
Have a better comeback than that, then we’ll talk. Chapman’s had a career, while wisdom is something you should pray hard for.
Larry E, Rogers will bring in the same type and this will happen all over again.
How cleaver… you must be very proud of yourself (unlike your parents). What is it like to have such a weak and fragile mind that you get this worked up over someone disagreeing with you?
But since you’re crying, let me ask you, is 162 games Chapmans floor? No? Then 20 home runs isn’t his floor either. You see, you made an ignorant comment someone corrected you on, then you turned into a little B-witch. Then you made an even more ignorant comment.
You do realize that a lot of gold gloves are similar to all star nominations. Name brand recognition, once you win your first it’s easier to win subsequent ones. Metrics wise he was good but not nearly the best D at third
I think that’s a little unfair. This was not acting early at all if they had to wait till March to find out if the Jays can sign him at a fair price. IKF would probably not have been available at that time and they lose out on everybody.
That the best you got drasco? I said have a better comeback and you grab that low hanging fruit that sits next to your baseball acumen.
Since you know zip, if a guy hits 24, 36, 10 (in 37 games), 27 and 27 prior to the 17 homer season, are you going to side with the “he hit 17 and isn’t a 20 homer guy” crowd?
Like I said, pray for Wisdom. To argue Chapman isn’t a 20 homer guy is ridiculous, as was your latest attempt at a comment.
Lol you a funny dude
Well if he opts out means he had a really good year lol. He is getting paid what he deserves right now. If only he could hit like Devers or Riley he’d be the best overall 3B in the league. The Giants now need to pick the best player available in their first pick not some player expected to be a 2nd or 3rd round pick.
Wisdom only played 60 games at 3b in 23. Had a WAR of 0.3 Chapman had almost Wisdoms career war in 1 season. Wisdom is a .220 career hitter with no D. Basically a career minor leaguer. Wisdom will always be a FA on any fantasy league lol.
Only a top 5 3B in war last year and he sucked hitting the 2nd half. If he had a better 2nd half he’d be top 3.
Chapman has a better HR per AB then Kris Bryant
Cool. That’s why they gave him a 3 year deal?
You get it now or nah?
They just spent their wad on a 3B when they literally have one starting pitcher, and they already had a 3B who can’t DH because of an earlier dumb move, and who is pissed off and very popular in the clubhouse.
Congratulations. As they’ve done since this GM took over, they’re playing the smartest guy in the room game, chasing bargains and ignoring how things fit together.
This isn’t basketball. Things don’t ’fit together.’ Whoever has the best collection of talent wins. Chapman is clearly an upgrade on Davis…likely ~2 wins per most projections
Whoever has the best talent wins is not how this sport works at all.. Padres fans were saying this all last year
I’m not saying he isn’t. I’m saying that’s irrelevant when you had a perfectly decent, younger 3B, and you have no pitchers. Good freakin’ luck when Webb isn’t on the hill, and goodness help them if he gets hurt. Unless they have enough left to go after a couple of the remaining FA pitchers, this was the most bizarre, self-defeating off-season I’ve ever seen a team have.
The Padres did not in fact have much talent, so not sure your point. Back of the lineup was a black hole and the team had zero depth as usual
The 2023 Padres had much more talent than this inevitable 500 Giants team… so…
And losing the draft pick is the cherry on top. This is very much like when the Rockies signed Kris Bryant.
They didn’t actually. Depth matters, as AJ Preller still can’t seem to figure out in year 10
Yeah 3/54 is totally comparable to 7/168 or whatever. Great comparison, keep it up
Except Bryant isn’t an elite defender and his contract is twice as long?
@Seamaholic: Take a deep breath, pal
The Bryant signing was so much worse than this. More than twice as long and over 3x the money.
@Seamaholic: Yeah, totally! Just get rid of all the opt outs and add another $128MM to the deal and it’d be tough to tell the difference between the two deals!
Helluva lot more than this Giants team. Padres had two future hall of famers in their primes, a loaded rotation, and maybe the best closer of his generation.
But a much better hitter. Exact number doesn’t matter. What matters is that the signing made signing pitchers impossible for the Rox. If that’s the deal w the Giants it’s the same mistake.
Don’t get caught up in how big a bargain it is or isn’t. That’s not what matters. What matters is whether they can still fill their actual needs. $20m is not nothing. A few more million would have gotten them Jordan Montgomery, and a few less one of several others.
The Giants still can afford a good SP.
Spent their wad? They’re still under the luxury tax and the payroll heights of 6+ years ago. They’ve fished out almost as much money to Soler ($42M) and Hicks ($44M), while giving out roughly $130M to Lee.
And according to some reporting, the Giants are still eyeing Snell. So how does a contract with opt-outs that maxes out at 20% of this offseason’s spending qualify as spending their wad?
This isn’t who gets the biggest bargain wins. That’s like the morons who think a team “won” the draft if it got a lot of guys later than “experts” thought they’d go. There’s a reason Chapman didn’t get more than this, in years and dollars. He was among the worst regulars in baseball with the bat for the last four months of last year, and his D has started declining. This is exactly what he’s worth, and he may have had no other interest.
This is not at all like KB, this is a three year deal with decreasing salary
That’s the question. They need two, really three.
Seamaholic
Fine, argue that they should have signed Lorenzen instead but don’t make a silly comp to KB
“Was one of the worst regulars in baseball after 9 pm in the mountain time zone”
Sick bro. Put up 3.5 fWAR and it was the worst full season of his career. Finished w/ a 110 wRC+. You act like he’s Yoan Moncada or something
If that’s the case this signing is fine. But if they were going to sign Snell I’m not sure what is taking so long. We’ll see.
@Seamaholic: Give it a rest, dude. You sound bitter and clueless. Bryant isn’t what made “signing pitchers impossible for the Rox”; Coors Park is. Pretending that Chapman’s and Bryant’s contracts are anywhere near comparable is absolutely absurd.
Giants can still sign Snell or Montgomery no problem. Signing Chapman is obviously not the end of their moves.
Actually “whoever has the best collection of talent wins” is far more applicable to basketball than baseball. It’s almost never true in practice in MLB. The Dodgers of 22 and the Braves of 23 show this clearly
Wins in the regular season or over large samples. 5 game series don’t mean anything
It’s still untrue. The Mets won 100 games in 22 and on paper improved in some ways. Teams constantly over/underperform in terms of projections. If we had an infinite amount of games it would play out your way. 162 is a lot but it’s still like 6 months of time. Almost anything can happen. I don’t understand these type of arguments. True logic is a double edged sword. It sees both sides of something. You are looking at things like we are sending robots out to play. Now balance that out with the human factor and unpredictable nature of anything and you’ll arrive at the truth.
Seamaholic
“This is very much like when the Rockies signed Kris Bryant.”
The Rockies signed Bryant to 7 years/$182M. This is not at all like when the Rockies signed Bryant.
“He was among the worst regulars in baseball with the bat for the last four months of last year…”
Chapman posted a .902 OPS_ in August of last year.
@Seamaholic, “capable” is a strong word for Davis’s glove. And he’s an entire one day younger than Chapman.
When has having the best collection of talent ever guaranteed a winner?
Literally one starting pitcher?
Spent their wad? Lol Chapman signing was a deal. Bellinger got much more and Chapman had a better or equivalent WAR last year. Defense is a major factor in winning games. They spent their wad on Lee who hasn’t yet to play a single game in the MLB. Giants are bargain chasers as well as gamblers.
And how did they do? Lol they also don’t have Hader, Snell and Soto. Think they struggled last yr wait until this season.
More money for a pitcher that won 10 games 1 time in his career and who is coming off his best season of his career? He don’t deserve top pay. Id rather have Clevinger. Better track record and better career numbers.
But still managed to be in the top 5 in War at 3b? Too bad his bat didn’t suck the second half who knows he could be top 2-3
Literally.
Not always
3.5 is what Devers had last year and higher than Machado and Arenado so I would say yea it’s good.
Well in all fairness if I recall he also hit like the Babe early on last season.
Rishi, I didn’t recall just how well Chapman hit last April, but his monstrous month is mentioned in the article. 1152 OPS!
Everyone after a certain age is declining but he isn’t doing it rapidly. I wouldn’t be surprised to see him improve on his 2024 numbers. My projections say they will.
Don’t tell Freddie Freeman.Really he declined already. I would, at this point call him steady.
This really make no sense to me. I think they need pitching more.
Better get some starters too.
Anything over a 750 ops he will likely opt out. He should be able to do better. They can still sign a pitcher.
Maybe the price was what intrigued them. Defense helps pitching.
Rishi
Well, actually
Defense helps run prevention, not pitching
Semantics. I can’t fathom why you felt the need to write that beyond either joking or being high horse.
Rishi
Because it’s true
Help-“to give assistance”, “to ease the discomfort of” “to be of service to”. If a pitcher makes a bad pitch defense will help him possibly. Defense helps pitching. Words can be taken many ways.
Lose a first round pick for a player with an opt-out after year 1? I don’t get it
The Giants first round picks don’t usually work out anyway, so…
Idk if they lose a 1st round pick. He signed for 54 mill.
I think they redid QO penalties based on how much a player signs for.
Or could be the jays won’t get an extra first cause he signed for 54 mill.
I’m sure they’ll update it in the article for tomorrow and touch on it.
$50m is the threshold. They indeed get the top tier penalty.
Listen San Fran fans you should be happy signing Chapman for an average of 18M per season or would rather have IKF ,who those 2 twits running our Toronto signed for 15M a season instead of bring back Chapman
Speaking of twits….
IKF’s $15MM is for TWO years, so $7.5MM a year not 15, but by all means, don’t let facts get in the way of your hatred for the front office.
Correction: 2nd round.
Thanks for the correction. 2nd round, that’s a lot easier to handle than a first.
plus $500k international pool
Still gotta sell tickets. With expanded playoffs, a team probably only needs to win like 5 games over .500 to see the postseason.
The lose a 2nd round.. it still affects the draft as they lose the pool money… for a guy who can opt out with 1 good season
Unless Chapman has an otherworldly season offensively this season he’s not opting out to languish in free agent limbo for a second straight winter
Rsox
“Unless Chapman has an otherworldly season offensively this season he’s not opting out to languish in free agent limbo for a second straight winter”
I bet you’re wrong
I bet if he has a season in 2024 similar to his season in 2023 he opts out.
If he puts up numbers like he had in 2022, 27 HR, 116 OPS+, and plus defense, he will get far more than $34 million guaranteed.
@filihok: Indeed. Tough to see him not opting out barring some sort of major injury or a complete disaster of a season.
The problem is he has little room to regress. I don’t see him aging well but he could find another gear (he’s been a better hitter in the past). So with a 3 year commitment you are hoping he maintains this level of offense for 3 years which is possible but pushing it already. Teams don’t pay up for defensive specialists. If he regresses much that’s all he’ll be. If he puts up the same year and opts out he may get the same deal again basically but I don’t see a 4-5 year deal unless he has an 850 ops or something similar. I still wouldn’t see it
@Rsox: Not true at all. Won’t take much for Chapman to feel confident he can beat the 2/$34MM left on his contract at the end of the ’24 season.
They loose their 2nd pick
Maybe there’s a plan in the works to package JD, Bart, and others for a serviceable pitcher?
@terry g Know any 4 WAR pitchers going for 18m a season?
Good deal G-men
It’s not a game-changer (NPI), but I don’t hate this. Hopefully this will be a move that contributes to a solid season from the Giants rather than a slow rolling implosion.
Sorry, but what does NPI mean again? Thank you
New product introduction?
Nope, I’m very confident it means: Never Pee Indiscriminately.
Eh, maybe not quite as confident as I once was…
Thanks to his Idiot agent boras that got him to reject over $100 million dollars with the jays! ♂️
Maybe, just maybe, he likes the bay area more than Toronto. Hard to believe but it’s possible.
Or.. he and Boras expected a better market. Hard to believe but possible
True.
Boras misread the market impacted by the RSN fiasco. It also doesn’t help that Oakland’s Fisher is simply going through the motions until his team’s big move. The ’23 median MLB salary rose by 7.1% to $4.525MM. We’re probably looking at that number to remain stagnant or very slightly decrease in ’24.
Maybe he decided to sign with SF because spring training had started, and he had no other offers? It’s too late to play pick my favorite city to play in.
Market expectaiion or no…the investment potential of that income needs to be considered. Boras plays kind of an old fashioned game that better fits his interests over the long term. He’s only giving up his % when taking these guys deep into spring.
I think if I whiffed on 100M on the advice of my agent…then it happened again in FA. Yeah…I’d be finding another rep.
And teams know WAR isn’t the only determinant in value and don’t want to overpay flawed players.
DE
“I think if I whiffed on 100M on the advice of my agent…then it happened again in FA. Yeah…I’d be finding another rep.”
Where’s the personal responsibility here
You don’t know what Boras’ advice was. You don’t know what Chapman’s reaction to that advice was
Ma
“And teams know WAR isn’t the only determinant in value”
Knowledgeable people know WAR isn’t a determinant of value at all. It’s a measure of value.
“don’t want to overpay flawed players.”
1) Every player is flawed.
2) Teams don’t want to pay fair value for players – they want to underpayment them
Had his best years playing for BoMel.
Certainly Melvin sticks with his guys and he isn’t going to bench Chapman no matter if he pulls a Chris Davis and goes 0 for his whole first week.
“Jason Werth will totally transform how Major League teams view outfielders” – Scott Boras.
This is true tho.
If true whoever offered him over 100m needs to go.
100 million for how many years? He can still easily beat that offer if he has a good season. Teams will have more money hopefully with the TV deals worked out
I think the combination of factors that led to this offseason’s unusual results gave team executives a map for how to handle Boras clients in the future. I wouldn’t be surprised to see teams continue to squeeze Boras from this point forward and strictly adhere to their analytical player evaluations and budgets regardless of their needs. Obviously, this will exclude the Juan Soto-types who will certainly command top market pay.
I think the difference this year was the willingness of teams to sit out on the Boras five.
Even then, Soto might just be the Yankees bidding against themselves. Most clubs won’t fork out 400+ guaranteed or waste time/energy being used when they can allocate funds over the course of years to many good players.
Not a guy like Soto, the super stars will always get paid top dollar. Production and age are the biggest factors, once a player is over 30 his value is cut in half for most players. There are always outliers!
Didn’t suggest otherwise. It’s just clubs won’t get caught up in the games. While trying to get 400+ out of NYY, a couple clubs may offer low 300s knowing it won’t be accepted and then move on quick to realistic good players/bow out.
You really never know what offers clubs make to players, their is a lot of fake news out there.! You only know the offer of the team that gets the players, and really that all that matters.
Yeah Boreass really screwed up his clients this year. It will definitely effect his business going forward as word will spread. You can’t spin a loss like this as maybe he will earn more money next year if he does great, cause maybe this is all he gets if he gets injured. That is too big a gamble to be taking with a client that is already showing signs of regression. You work hard to get to this point, you take the longest contract you can and add in some opt outs as well. If he had a 5 year 9 figure contract on the table and didn’t take it this is a huge loss.
Hey, Chapman bought into the dream of riches.
And he still got riches, fwiw.
Not a happy JD Davis (who is popular in the clubhouse) right now. Bad bad move.
JD is good for -2 runs at third base. Chapman will save 20-30. No brainer deal.
Great job, Zaidi. Let’s trade JD Davis (who is really a bench player for a 5th starter
They ain’t getting a major league pitcher for one year of JD, no way no how. Especially since everyone and his mother know they have to trade him, and this time of year teams are clinging to their pitchers like their seasons depend on it.
We’re just need a journeyman who can eat innings. There are teams in need of IF help with a surplus of those types of arms in the East if both leagues.
Cover innings go save bullpen. Cobb ~late May, Winn, then Ray.
No need to buy an overvalued arm like Montgomery or take a big risk on Snell, unless they can get him for 3 yrs with same type of opt outs.
Since acquiring a back-end starter for him is less likely, why not trade him for some low end prospects? His money off the books leaves $12-13MM in wiggle room before the first tax apron. More than enough to get a guy like Lorenzen.
Chapman wont be saving 20-30 runs on defense at this point… 10 maybe
I know right trade him for Trevor Rogers or Edwin Cabrera from the Marlins.
@Pickle_Britches
For Davis, we wouldn’t even trade Buck Rogers or Riley Cabrera to get him.
But if the Gisnts want to trade him for Avi Garcia, that may be a conversation.
What about Davis and Bart for Rogers? Giants eat much of Davis salary
Not even for Norville Rogers.
They have no faith in him as a 3B
@Reynaldo JDD can’t play a full year. He’s a big guy but he always fades. Terrific bat 100 games a year, but not the way the Giants used him in 2023.
The bigger concern is they kind of need JD bat in the lineup as it’s stronger than Chapmans. Tough but he’s a free agent I believe at end of season and he’s even less likely to get this deal if we are being honest. Tough choice would love to see them both in the lineup with Lee, Wade Jr, Estrada, Soler it was actually pretty decent.
If you hit they find playing time for you.
I’d rather lose Conforto than Davis prolly.
Jd Martinez keeps telling himself this in the mirror.
JD is a utility player. His bat isn’t as good as Chapmans.
So they shouldn’t try to improve the team because the mediocre JD Davis is popular in the clubhouse? Ok.
Matt Chapman has been more valuable every season of his career than Davis. Even Chapman’s Covid year is better than Davis’s best full season. Chapman has 30 something career WAR. Davis has 3. JD Davis is a nice bench piece but not someone who is a cornerstone you don’t try to improve upon, given the opportunity.
If the report that that the Blue Jays offered him an extension in the realm of 100mm is true he must really be regretting it now.
He’s guaranteed $58 million. Even dividing it up to taxes, agents and others he’ll still need several lifetimes to spend it all.
He didnt want to be in Toronto. He lived out of a hotel for 2yrs. Usually athletes will get a condo or something in the city they play in if they dont buy a house. Maybe he’ll find his swing again in San Fran
Not if he is confident. He will get 20 this year and likely opt out and get at least another 50 60 guarantee. Maybe more. I project him to have a better season this year.
If that is true, he didn’t want to play there! Today’s players are making life changing money, we see other factors like location and team preference with players selecting teams today, and teams that lose players leaking a high money offer to the press. In the end, it all comes down to where a player ends up!
Yeah, if we’re talking about tens of millions of dollars, the location would mean a lot more to me than making 10% more…..or however much more it would be
Not often a player a player takes less $ because of location. A few million on a 1 year deal sure. 5 or 10 million on a multi year deal can happen. 10 or 20 or 30 on a mega deal possible.
Fans will see them turn down larger numbers often enough but it isn’t more in your pocket $. You need to look at state and local taxes. Cost of living. And for someone like Judge is it more lucrative to go to a new team or be a captain entire career Yankee. That’s a heck of a legacy and a ton of endorsements. Would have taken a massive overpay to get him away from NY.
If you are coming off bad years you will sign for millions less with the Rays than say the Angels. You didn’t take less $. You bet on the Rays fixing you so you can make much more $ in the future.
This is about what Chapman was worth.
You got that right, and I’m gonna predict right now he won’t take either of the opt outs.
Both him and Belli would be stupid to not secure longer guarantees with new contracts even for a lower AAV once the RSN situations settle.
Don’t know about Beli. He may play 2 years before opting out. Or all 3. I project him having lesser year. Project Chapman to have better year so likely he opts out.
No, it’s about how Chapman plays for the Giants. We will know that answer in 3 years.
Hardly. A consistent, 30 yo 4 win 3Bman turning 31 is worth $18m with opt-ins?
You won’t find even one such example, in current dollars.
A contract that actually makes financial sense. Would’ve expected more years but this is what I think he should get. Agents understandably seek to get more by looking at overpays which abound everywhere one looks but the market is not always in a position where you are gonna get those. Chapman is a good player but defense sometimes falls of with age and his offense, while solid, doesn’t have much room for regression. I thought he’d get around 80M for 4/5 years.
WC1 my you-know-what. Phillies are winning 90+.
SCOTT BORAS LOSES. AMERICA WINS. GOD BLESS
Why is Boras losing good for America?
BASEBALL IS BACK BABY
How is this a loss for Boras? A loss would be if his clients don’t sign before the start of the season, or if they sign for something below market value
This appears to be significantly below market value.
Boras definitely isn’t losing. Just wait until next off-season when he has Soto, Alonso, Bergman, Bellinger, Corbin Burnes, Scherzer and possibly Garrett Cole
“Boras definitely isn’t losing…Soto, Alonso, Bergman”…And how many of those guys will drop Boras WELL before they become free agents?…I can’t see too many top of market guy’s trusting him after this years fiasco. A trained Monkey could have gotten Belli & Chapman 100M+, but Scott Boras the genius advised them to turn those offers down.
0.
Yeah I can see clients dropping him now. I would if I were them. He is stuck in the 90’s with his methods of trying to leverage time against teams.
Ahhhh, jealousy. For those insecure and immature souls who are unhappy with their own lives and refuse to admit it.
Yes. So true. Boreass sucks!
It’s a great sign.
Your right Chapman 18 M per season
We in Toronto signed IKF for 15M a season instead of bringing Chapman back whst a Jock Rogers is letting Atkins and Shapiro running our ball club in Toronto,
Be happy with what you got.
Not my team. Just cogratulating the Giants for a good sign. Either of us have peaked into the future and how well it will end. Dumb Canadians!
@Theodore
Except that we didn’t. IKF is $15MM total over two seasons.
$7.5MM per season for those of you who can’t do math…or are incapable of stating the truth because it doesn’t fit their narrative.
IKF is signed for 7.5 Mil a year and he is to replace Merrifield’s 94 ops+ @ $6.75 mil not Chapman.
IKF got a 2 year deal for 15 million
I would take that bet, Chapman out performs IKF the next 3 years, but by how much?
Your projections are based on?
Dude. Unbelievably amazing deal for SF. Now to Zaidi.
They just went from -2 defensive runs saved at 3B to about 26.
Great job. Bye bye JD. We can save 6m this season and get a 4th or 5th starter
No one’s trading pitching right now. They’re now gonna trade JD for nothing. A level lotto ticket.
Yep. Gio Urshela signed for $1.5 mil and teams are paying a premium for subpar innings-eaters types this offseason, so what kind of 5th starter would you get for JD Davis?
Cubs should offer to trade Drew Smyly for JD Davis and pay any difference in cost, but Giants would decline
This actually is a good trade proposal for both teams.
Which is about what JD is worth
Keep in mind that the Giants can add other pieces to a JD trade., They can trade from their stock of pitchers in the minors, and they have no use for Joey Bart, who’s worth a look to another club. Giants could also look to move Conforto.
But nobody is going to want a combination of Giants spare parts, which all require a roster spot, for a useful pitcher.
They probably have to package such guys with a somewhat enticing minor league arm.
Now they can trade JD Davis to the Mariners for George Kirby.
He’ll be popular in the clubhouse at least!
Not just JD. Yaz or Conforto too. Matos needs to be that 3rd outfielder. Deal one of the left handed outfield bats. Package Yaz and JD along with a super prospect like Birdsong, Wisenhunt or even Arteaga for a pitcher that is ready now.
If they’re throwing in Whisenhunt that’ll get some attention!
Can we toss Joey B into that trade? Please! Matos should most definitely be in the lineup every day going forward. Toss in Heliot as well, seems to be a bust. Get Schmitt going at AAA, and if/when he’s ready, Luciano goes to RF. Imagine Matos/Lee/Luciano as your everyday OF! No more injury-prone old dudes. Fitzgerald is going to be the one to watch this season. He’s definitely making the opening day roster. So many options. Can’t wait for the season to begin!
Luciano is injury proned though
I’m not surprised by this.
God bless Matt Chapman
Taco shells have no nutritional value.
Unbeatable crunch tho!
Last night at dinner they sure seemed to though! Mmmmmmm, tacos.
Mason black
JD Davis
Joey Bart
For
Edward Cabrera
Who says no?
The marlins
That’s a good deal. Cabrera is avg so you get an avg return. What do you expect to get top prospects? Lol id take Trevor Rogers and over Cabrera
I don’t even know who Mason Black is and I laughed out loud at this suggestion.
One of those strong young starting pitcher the giants have a surplus of, well maybe not a surplus but there is still about 4 rarely spoken of giants that fans know are coming.
TINSTAAPP.
So you admit to being ignorant to who Mason Black is, but you’re sure that deal is laughable.
“So you admit”…Mason Black is a nobody and very few know who he is. Why is that significant? You can’t expect people to keep track of all the AAAA players on the SF Giants, there’s simply too many.
Do you really need that explained to you? He literally said he had no idea who a player is, but that player’s not worth much in trade. How can he know what Black is worth when he has no idea who the guy is?
I don’t expect him, you, or anyone else for that matter, to know who Mason Black is. I do expect, when people make a value judgement about a player’s trade value that they should be familiar with that player, and what his value is. There are plenty of uninformed opinions on this site, but making a value judgement on a player you’ve never heard of is absurd.
Don’t worry nobody knew who Cabrera was until he made it up to the MLB.
The Marlins already have a 3B that can barely field (Burger) and will likely have to use DH AB’s to try to squeeze any value out of Avisail Garcia. No fit here
And they aren’t paying JD Davis $7m either. Best hope for a trade might be Brewers, but they don’t have any extra pitching (who does).
No more trades please, wait until the deadline! Let’s get the rest of the free agents signed.
Ross Atkins is THE WORST GM of ALL TIME!
That’s 100 percent on the ball but , also give a lot a crap to Rogers for allowing them to stick around
Yeah you really have to struggle to get outwitted by Zaidi.
Not even close
Yup…. Good signing for them at a decent price. Looking like Boras hurt his clients bad this offseason although I think this is their true worth. Giants need pitching, so go get snell or Montgomery
Pitching is always a premium so the contracts for the arms will be interesting.. Chapman hit horribly like 3/4ths of 23..
Surprised by the low AAV and short duration of contract
Chapman stunk most of last year.. and the majority of his value is 3B defense which could start to slip anytime
You think Chapman sucks then we will trade u IKF and see how you like it after Jays paid 15M a season for him , and Rogers agreed to that
Stop lying. You know they aren’t paying him $15MM a season.
Continuously lying about it won’t make it true.
Terrible deal. Schmitt has the potential to be just as good a defender and cost the league minimum for the next three years. Him trying to play SS after never really playing there hurt him. The way Chapman hit outside of April he and Schmitt had similar offensive seasons. I would rather see the money spent on pitching and saved for next year
Teams operate on yearly budgets. There is no “save money for next year”
Chapman is in next year’s budget too.
Not once he opts out… he’s not staying more than one season unless he’s injured…
I think Chapman and Schmitt have similar profiles, it’s hard to think that Schmitt at this time with his little experience is at the level of Chapman. The Giants went with a youth movement but have slowly and cost effectively brought in a cy young veteran pitcher to help with these younger guys it’s not accidental there top prospect is a left handed pitcher. Along with soler’s offensive prowess. And now Chapman to help mentor Schmitt and other infielders like Luciano etc.
Chapman’s July was almost as good as his April. And he had a 108 OPS+ last season. Casey Schmitt couldn’t hit his way out of a paper bag last season. He had an OPS+ of 60, 48 points worse than Chapman. Schmitt might become a league average hitter, but he wasn’t ready to do so last season. He needs to improve his bat-to-ball skills, and especially his pitch recognition. Zaidi would be a fool to depend on Schmitt for 2024.
Id be surprised if Schmidt ends up as good as Matt Duffy
Honestly, apart from his first 5 or 10 games, Schmitt looked really overmatched by MLB pitching, and while he made some eye-popping defensive plays, I don’t believe that his overall defensive metrics were all that great. He’s a guy who can see some MLB action this year, but by no means a player you want to hand the keys to.
Schmidt is terrible. He never really did good in the minors. Weak contact rating in all of MLB last year. I wouldn’t pick my teeth with his rookie card
I just don’t get the hype with this guy. Paying him $20m for a season of work is a stretch. His offensive numbers are just not that good and there are lots of guys who can play 3B
Me either. 20M that could’ve gone to a pitcher.
They can’t play 3b as good as him. A few can but they aren’t available. Most teams buy future numbers. They don’t care about 2022 2023. His 2024 looks better. The right hitting coach it could be a lot better.
You all may be surprised at this, as I was, but Chapman hit 72 HR over the past 3 seasons.
Unlike the vast majority of players, adjusting his PAs to Oracle Park, he would have hit 86 HR.
His hard hit rate is quite high. In short, they’re getting a guaranteed minimum of 25 defensive runs saved compared to JD Davis (who cost 3 runs). We are a ground ball heavy rotation, so this would unsurprisingly exceed 30-35 runs saved if he is healthy.
He’s another must removed from torn labrum and with his bat strength and profile for our park, this is probably the ultimate No Brainer No Loss deal of the offseason, factoring in the low risk nature of the contract. Yes, that includes LA’s big 2.
Quite the coup’d Zaidi. Now dump JD for an innings eater and we are good for now…
Then get Bregman next year. 😀
Nirvana
Uf. Bregman can go bang a trashcan next year.
Defense wins games and makes pitchers better. WAR is a key factor in how valuable a player is for a team. Chapman had a better WAR than Machado, Arenado, and Devers last year. Lol
IKF GOT 15/2 WITH NO OPT OUTS! (bad for team as they dont want him a $7..5M /y)
They must have been bidding against another team if they went that high for IKF. Maybe the Yanks wanted him back.
I really didn’t want chapman but honestly this contract is pretty friendly and he’s clearly better than Davis so it ain’t bad in the end after all.
I’m right with you.
They can still use JD in a utility roll if they don’t have a trade lined up.
Baseball Savant has him hitting 86 homers in oracle the last 3 years. His actual total was 71. He could likely have a resurgent year hitting. Trade Conforto (probably need to pat a chunk of his $18mil). JD can play leftfield and first base.
He can play LF in the sense that I can play LF.
He can’t play anywhere but first and third and DH, and they have full timers all three places. He’s completely screwed at this stage of ST.
Nope. They’re right handed utility heavy. He has to go especially with his 7m ridiculous salary.
And that’s all JD is good for lol
3/$54M?? I love this deal for the Giants. His defense on that short of a pact will do wonders for be grounder-heavy pitching staff, and there’s a decent shot his offense will still be passable. And that AAV isn’t going to prevent them from doing anything else over the next three years.
I’m guessing that means JD Davis and/or Conforto are going to be traded for some pitching help. The Giants could pay a bunch of salary to get in a deal to get a fifth starter, perhaps.
Welcome back to the Bay, Chapman
Obviously it will be passable, he has a career 117 OPS+
Career numbers are not an effective way to predict the future outcomes for a 31 year old with declining bat speed and declining overall offensive numbers. Chapman was good offensively for 2 months last year and well below average for the other 4 (84 OPS+).
Wouldn’t shock me if he posts a below average OPS+ and wRC+ next season.
it is possible but not likely. he has never had an OPS+ below 100 in his career.. Also where do you get declining bat speed? he was in the 98th to 100th percentile in EV/ Barrels and HH% baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/matt-chapman-…
Dont believe everything you read on twitter.
No Twitter; I too referenced statcast to come to my conclusion. EV, barrel, and slugging don’t necessarily refute my assertion of declining bat speed. One can still make good contact with declining bat speed, but there’s a reason his x stats outpaced his real stats, despite that.
First, he saw the highest % of meatballs he’s seen since 2018, so he had more opportunities to just destroy bad pitches than in the past.
Much more importantly, his pull rate declined significantly and his oppo rate increased significantly (we’re talking ~8% less pull and ~7% less push with an increase on up the middle), indicating he’s been later on balls. He also hit more HR to the right side of the field than the left side last season. That led to the lowest no-doubter rate of his career by a significant margin. That means it’s highly likely some of those HR will end up being flyouts this season, particularly in SF. I highly doubt his gameplan last season was to continue belting the ball but doing it to the opposite field where his no-doubter rate would decline and many balls would hang up and become flyouts. If he did, it was a terrible decision and greatly supports why his x stats would outpace his actual results.
His whiff rate also ticked back up to the 16th percentile, *potentially* suggesting that he’s been later on some balls.
As for his overall offense, his xBA was 16th percentile, which was bad enough that his 78th percentile BB rate only led to 48th percentile xOBP.
So, potentially further reduced slugging rates combined with below league to slightly above league average OBP skills is how I concluded that he could have his first sub-100 OPS+ and wRC+ seasons along with very high K rates (which he’s always had but are not good in combination with other factors), aging, and the fact that he can’t seem to get fully healthy. It’ll still likely be passable offense if this happens because it’ll probably be in the 90s for both categories, but it certainly wouldn’t be results worth the salary.
Only if he actually hit good after the AS break last year would be go from top 5 3b in the league to top 3. Defense is key to winning games
They need a 2nd, 3rd, and 4th starter as well.
I can see them getting Lorenzen…
Yeah that’s my guess.
Lies
I’d be shocked if any pitcher is traded in ST. They never are, as no one has extras. Would have to massively overpay.
Jason Hammel was traded during spring training twice and went on to have stellar seasons both times with his new teams. Both times, Colorado and Baltimore made the playoffs, as well.
But you’re right, it’s very rare.
Most teams are relatively healthiest coming out of Spring training. If ever.a.time to acquire an extra pitcher, it would be now.
No because teams know injuries are coming and most teams are still dreaming of having a competitive season.
Would prolly prefer Conforto be the odd man out, really wasn’t impressed with him in the field to say the least. And I’m pretty sure when healthy his bat was basically league average. And he’s getting what like 18m?
Yup 18m
JD has more versatility than Conforto.
They will probably float them both out and trade either one depending on interest and return.
He should hit better this year. I wouldn’t guess those 2 are traded for starting pitching.
Meh
At the end of the day, teams will decide player’s salaries and set the market, not Scott Boras.
Why do you want supply and demand to be set by only one side?
The market is met jointly by management and labor.
Boras was slightly off this year – or way off – we have no way to know if Chapman turned down an earlier offer for more or not.
But the system is working, supply and demand. No rules changes needed.
“Why do you want supply and demand”…..How is what I “want” even relevant, my friend?…I’m just stating how it really works, not what I “want”. Signing players is not about your feelings nor mine.
Yelled Mozeliak defiantly at his television screen.
Correction. Mr.Valentine has set the price. Ahahaha!
I think this is a consolation and honestly let’s be real, every single one of these consolation contracts are placeholders until the teams/league get new broadcast/streaming deals and then if they remotely live up to the deal they’ll opt out, re-sign for like 4 years/$100M for Chapman and 4 years/$135M for Bellinger or something along those lines.
Now sign snell
I knew he was never getting 9 figures.
Can he pitch?
Kind of surprising that Bellinger and now Chapman have signed before Snell and Montgomery. If I’m one of those two starting pitchers I’m losing my mind with every day I’m not in spring training, facing hitters and getting ready for the season.
Montgomery probably signs with the Red Sox the day after Snell finally accepts whatever the Yankees have offered
Nightmare offseason for the Jays FO
You think . Atkins and Shapiro should not still be running this organization and Rogers should take all the blame
Hmmm….maybe some of these moves (or lack of) were done so that fans would forget last year’s Moreno trade and shenanigans of the “analytics team”….
The Giants now have Stripling, Hicks, Ray, and Chapman on their roster…none of these guys wanted to stick around Toronto…
Stripling is on the As
Good catch…I must have missed that one…
@bestone: Stripling is on Oakland’s roster
Thanks…good catch. Regardless, it seems that many that were traded to the Jays, don’t stick around.
Everyone is so concerned that we lose a draft pick. Who cares. In the last decade, SF’s 1st round draft picks have sucked. Bickford, Beede, Shaw, Bishop, Bart, Bednar, Arroyo, Stratton, etc. So we won’t be getting the next Phil Bickford or Chris Shaw, instead we get an established gold glover who (because he can opt out) will have extra motivation. If Marco struggles they can put Chapman at SS & JD can play 3rd. MC glove is that good. Now go get Snell or Mont. & SF will have a solid off season
In isolation losing a pick for signing a QO guy isn’t a huge deal while competing.. Losing one to make your team a slightly better WC3 contender for a guy if he’s good will leave after 1 season.. and if he’s bad is an anchor for 3 years is hilariously bad and desperate management.
It also makes it less likely they sign Snell to a similar contract, as they would lose another pick in the same draft, and more pool money.
Chapman at SS is hilarious and unserious at best. Zero chance he plays there in any case other than an emergency. If Luciano was destined for third base (where he’s much stronger than SS already) they wouldn’t have signed chapman in the first place.
Chapman’s a pretty decent SS. Not bad at all.
I mean, sure… you can probably turn one of the best defensive third basemen in the game into an average shortstop. You end up with a barely over replacement level shortstop making $20M, in order to ensure you can keep a barely over replacement level bad defensive third baseman.
Or you could let Chapman do what he’s good at and have a good player.
I’m a Dodgers fan, but I like this move for the Giants. 20 million this year for a guy that put a 4.4 bWAR season last year, then 18 and 16 the next two. He’s only 30, if he can get back to what he was before the hip, this could be an absolute steal for the Giants. The D-Backs and Padres being competitive are cute and even admirable at times. But the west is best when the Giants and Dodgers are at each others throats. Go get Snell now, Farhan.
As a pompous Yankees fan, I enjoyed the O’s trading for Corbin Burnes and have been disappointed to see the Red Sox take a step back. It’s too late in the offseason now for them to snag Snell or Monty so maybe the Blue Jays do so for a similar deal.
Makes the lineup look deeper, hopefully Chapman does well in his first year there.
Likely does so well it’s his only year there. Can always extend or sign him.
I hope he does amazing so he opts out and we bathe Bregman in bucks next year
Thought he would do better. 4/60 with a buyout of a fifth year of 12. Kinda surprised but Borass really overplayed his hand if there was 100m offered by Toronto. He ended up with little more than half. Another casualty of big Scott….. He is probably a lousy card player too.
I think the Boras guy’s exorbitant, crazy initial ask sent at least 5-7 teams running for cover. And by the time they faced reality and became more reasonable, most of their suitors had already spent their alloted budgets elsewhere. Players can hold out, slow up and drag out the free agent process, but it’s not realistic to think teams will wait for them.
I mean three years with a less than $20M AAV for one of the best defensive 3B in baseball, backing up a pitching staff that led baseball in GB% last year who is probably an offensive upgrade as well (this one is more of a knock on the Giants offense lol). I agree with most they needed a pitcher more but I think it’s possible they still might not be done.
They barely even have a pitching staff.
Which leads me to believe they still might just sign Snell to a short high AAV deal
They should sign Clevinger and Lorenzen both. They need 300+ competent innings more than they need 150 innings of star power.
Personally I disagree. I’m not a huge fan of either of those pitchers and remain unconvinced either are an actual upgrade over Keaton Winn or Mason Black. If they did that then down the stretch they’d have Webb, Ray, Cobb, Lorenzen, Clevinger and Hicks all on guaranteed major league deals then Harrison, Winn, Beck and Black who could all be stashed in AAA if need be. Id rather roll the dice on Winn, Black and Beck (if he’s coming back even remotely soon) than Clevinger AND Lorenzen. If they whiff on Snell and got one of them I don’t think it’s be too bad but both is a stretch
OMG they are miles better. Watched Black a bit last year in the PCL. He’s gonna get eaten alive at least at first.
Earlier in this thread you said you didn’t know who Black was and now claim to have watched him a bit.
Interesting.
@oldgfan: Lol I noticed that as well. Dude doesn’t know what he’s talking about but can’t seem to keep his mouth shut.
Black starts today against Pads.
Let’s see how long they stretch him out.
He looked pretty good to me
would you rather have IKF at 2/15 or Chapman in the worst case scenario at 3/54 if you were trying to make the playoffs?
Some one who has the right idea . Get rid of Shapiro and Atkins
Chapman of course, because although he is a very streaky hitter, IKF is at best a utility infielder, yet the Yankees thought it would be a good idea to have him as their everyday shortstop in 2022.
I’m not a Chapman fan but that’s a good deal for the Giants.
Boras stock is cratering this offseason. Oooof.
Chapman and Davis were teammates at Cal State Fullerton, Drafted the same year and born 1 day apart… that’s all I got
Maybe they get along good and they keep davis because he ain’t a bad player
One of Davis or Wilmer Flores likely now has to go. I give Flores the slight edge at staying because he can play 2B and Davis can’t
Flores is also a much better hitter and although I’ve never heard anything negative about Davis Flores is definitely one of the more beloved Giants
No chance Wilmer goes; he’s the bedrock of this team.
No shot they move Flores. That would definitely sour any remaining goodwill the fan base has toward Farhan and after this chapman deal he will heal his relationship with a lot of people a little bit.
“We”
Good pickup for the Giants. Wonder if Snell and Montgomery are going to follow this trend of shorter deals with multiple opt outs.
About time! now the JD Davis trade watch begins or move him to LF
now they can focus on a SP
I think the Giants will try to trade Davis to save some $$$ and cap their offseason signing Snell on a short term high AAV deal with opt outs. There really is no better place for Snell on a one year prove it deal then Oracle Park where he has a sub 2 ERA and where his former manager is now. Rodon and Gausman made out like bandits but it’s all up to the FO
Are they willing to go lux tax though? In a division with a super team and the defending league champs? They have some dudes on the way but that argues for a long term Snell deal, not short.
That’s the question idk if they would go over it but Dodgers have proven the last two years the division title is meaningless and over that span the Giants actually have more wins than the Dbacks and last year the Dbacks only had five more wins. With all the additions the Giants made and Melvin at the helm I think they’re on par with the Dbacks.
Gm
“Dodgers have proven the last two years the division title is meaningless ”
No. They haven’t
FanGraphs’ DC projections wRC+, 2024 WAR/600, 2024-2026 WAR
Chapman 109, 3.2, 9.9
Davis 105, 2.0, 3.4
Schmitt 80, 0.5, 0.8
Its still just projections or guesses. Let see how it actually plays out.
No those are real stats. They used a time machine and everything.
stymee
“Its still just projections or guesses.. Let see how it actually plays out.”
Why do people make these types of comments about projections but not about idiots just throwing out guesses?
The anti-science movement is pathetic
Filihok…you would think that the predictions you reference are 100% accurate the way you talk. They are a useful tool but not the be all end all. Stymedone is not wrong in what he said. Should we also replace scouts who have opinions with HAL2000? P.S. your people skills suck.
“Releasing bad news or documents on a Friday night in an attempt to avoid media scrutiny is often called a “Friday news dump” by members of the media.
This timing is often chosen strategically, aiming to minimize media coverage, public attention, and potential scrutiny that may arise from the news being released.
By releasing significant information on a Friday, individuals or organizations hope that the news will receive limited media coverage and public attention, allowing controversial or unfavorable news to go relatively unnoticed or fade quickly.“
Go to bed, lol! That doesn’t apply to a new sports player contract. Chapman still needs to take his physical and the Giants will probably hold a small presser when the deal is official next week.
Someone is seriously over-thinking this signing.
Wow. That’s a reach imho.
Perfect fit and where I predicted he would sign in the FA contest. Giants needed a good defensive player at 3B and Chapman has serious pop in his bat. Even in an injury plagued season for him he had 108 OPS+ and 17 HR after averaging 27 HR each of the previous 2 seasons.
He wasn’t injury plagued particularly. And his defense has started declining by most metrics.
He injured his hand originally in May and then hurt it bad enough in early August that by the end of the month he could no longer grip a bat and missed more than 20 games. Considering that outside of the Covid season he had not missed more than a handful of games a season since 2018, I am going with injury plagued by Chapman standards.
He had a 12 DRS and ranked as the 3rd best defensive 3B in baseball. 4th in OAA. In other words, he was exceptional on defense last season.
He wasn’t the best defensive 3B since Brooks like he was in 2018, 2019, but he was still exceptional.
Whoa, a Scott Boras client gets burned. Should have taken the $150M from the A’.s. Can’t see this helping the Giants at all this year, unless he gets on the mound and pitches.
Champman also said no to Toronto who tried to extend him with a 4yr/$100mil deal before he hit FA.
I cannot find a single article that says they offered him 4/100. Do you have a link?
Hey Web, Plenty of articles about Jays offering an extension of 4 years 100 Mil plus on Sportsnet.ca (Ben Nickelson Smith, Shi Dividi) and MLB Blue Jays web page (Keegan Matheson) all wrote about it last offseason and into last yeas spring training.
Check the link in this article above where it says:
“He also reportedly passed on an offer from Toronto that would’ve topped $100MM at some point before he got to free agency.”
Links?
Both Chapman and Boras said that Scot Mitchell’s report never happened. Do you have another link, because that one is bunk.
I’m always on the fence with signings like this. There are hit or miss. It’s an upgrade, but hopefully it doesn’t turn into a dud.
Yikes, I hope not. It felt like Longo was more washed up, though, when the Giants traded for him.
Isn’t Longoria a little older also. Honest question.
Well, he is now, yeah, but when he came over to the Giants in trade, he was 31 or 32, similar to Chapman’s age at the present. But in Longoria’s case, the Giants took on 5 years, and they sacrificed a decent prospect in trade (Christian Arroyo – in hindsight, not a great loss).
Chapman is a good defender and has some thump with the bat. IMO, he’s likely to age better than Longoria did, but who knows? There’s a lot less risk in the structure of this deal, which could be anywhere from 1-3 years.
Hmmm, so what you’re saying is, it could be good but on the other hand it could be bad, interesting. There’s so many deep thinkers on here it’s hard to keep up sometimes. Ahahaha!
LOL. Yeah, that’s what being on the fence, it’s hit or miss and could be good or could be bad all means.
It got several people talking about it which is more than I see you accomplished here.
My only goal is to point out maroons. Obviously my job is done here. Ahahaha!
WAR might be the worst stat on evaluating a player. It values defense too highly. According to WAR, Matt Chapman is a better player than prime Ryan Howard. Ask any sane person if they would rather have 2023 Matt Chapman or prime Ryan Howard and its clear what the answer is. Chapman got overpaid, its plain and simple. His hitting is below average. Defense is important but not to the extent people think. All these guys made the majors, they can all play their positions at a high level, just some are slightly better than others. This league is a joke
1 run scored is exactly equal to 1 run saved by defense. Exactly. There is no difference.
True but many would argue that public metrics have no idea how to quantify a “run saved.”
Some would say that morons on boards don’t know how to quantify runs saved. No one intelligent says the experts and data scientists in baseball don’t.
Howard was a truly terrible defensive player. The bad glove cut into his value bigly, even during his MVP season. That’s just the fact, and it explains why Howard’s “peak” was neither very impressive nor very long.
Howard would be an elite DH now
Yep, that was Howard’s problem. He was strictly a DH in a league that didn’t have the DH. So the Phillies had to play him somewhere to get his bat in the lineup. But man, did he reek with the glove, and everybody knew it.
Howard was an great hitter for the first 8 years of his career But he was also a SO machine. He struck out over 190 times in 3 separate seasons, 199 times twice. The K’s were probably excusable early on since he had a high OBP.
But over the last 5 seasons he was absolutely brutal Over that time he hit .226/.292/.427 with an OPS of 719, and an OPS+ of 95. He really flamed out after his first 8 seasons.
@LFGMets (Metsin7) #ConsistentlyBannedBaseballExpert: What’s really a joke is your attempts at baseball analysis.
@spliffTONE In the 2022 season, Myles Straw had a WAR that was almost as high as Pete Alonso’s 2022 season. In fact, Tommy Edman’s WAR that season almost doubled Pete Alonso’s WAR. Tommy Edman is a twice as good of a player as Pete Alonso? Yeah I don’t think so
It’s 3, 3 year deals with options to opt out every year!!! LOL! If he sucks Zaidi and the Giants are eating it again!!!
Typical Zaidi deal!
Lots of opt outs makes it a typical Boras deal.
It is three one year contracts all in favor of the player. If he craters, he gets paid, if he has a great year, he opts out and tries for more cash.
The teams continue to cave to the opt outs instead of locking guys in to the WHOLE contract.
The price isn’t bad and if he doesn’t hit his glove is still consistent. I don’t really think this is a huge deal either way.
SFG
“It’s 3, 3 year deals with options to opt out every year!!! LOL! If he sucks Zaidi and the Giants are eating it again!!!”
Optouts HELP THE TEAM!
Optouts have value to the player. Since rhe team gives up something of value in negotiations the player gives up something in return. That something is almost always money.
If the Giants were to give Chapman a 3 year deal with no optouts it would be for more than $54 million
I don’t know how it does, look at the players who opt-in, they had bad years. I think it was Cobb who said he didn’t play well enough to opt-out.
The plus side is that the Giants will get a good year out of him because he wants to opt out and try to get a better deal at which point they can decide if they want to try to retain him.
SFG
“I don’t know how it does”
I just explained to you how it does
Because if a team includes an opt out the player agrees to take less money
The Giants will obviously try to move Davis now for some pitching, but good luck with that. At best he might fetch a lottery ticket guy in AAA or a fringe MLB guy. Still don’t understand why San Fran just didn’t sign one of the Boras hurlers. The organizational philosophy against big free agent pitcher contracts must be super strong by the bay.
True. I’m not from San Fran. I’ve never even set foot in San Fran. So I’ll call it San Fran until the San Fran cows come home.
He’s just using it as an abbreviation, duh, lol
The roster is set, I was right guy…
The Giants seem to work their best magic with pitchers who aren’t at the top of the market; rarely works out when the sign a “big time” pitcher but they’ve turned around a lot of guys and former top prospects who’ve lost their shine
I just don’t see how the Giants contend with that rotation. If Webb goes out with an injury things could get really ugly really fast. Upgrading third base is nice, but you can only try to shuffle in openers and bullpen games so often. And if they try to trade for pitching, other teams will rip them off as much as they can because the need is so obvious.
I would just have used the money for Montgomery. Now the Giants are up against the luxury tax. Maybe not the end of the world, but now Boras probably thinks he can drive a really hard bargain for either of his big-name hurlers.
Just need a journeyman who can eat innings until the big reinforcements come, “SAN FRAN” DUDE BRA
You called it “set roster” LOL.
You’re the biggest fan of yourself.
Oooooohhhh what a game changer. lol. You guys will battle Col for last place. Good luck losers
Giants sign snell and they have officially won the offseason, if you don’t count the dodgers.
Golly the giants finally found a free agent that would sign with them. A lot of players pass up playing in the bay area
Huh? They’ve signed a bunch.
B for Giants. He likely opts out but they got him at a discount. Should be just as good or even better in 2024. Good fit.
Not sure about that. His offensive profile is all about TTO, and he’s going to one of the worst HR parks in baseball.
Front offices won’t even look at his hr totals.
@Seamaholic – it’s actually middling, not one of the worst. 14 out of 30 in ballpark factor, and it would likely be more if the hitter profile Zaidi looks for wasn’t more line drive – doubles – control the zone.
Incredibly happy with this move for the Giants; great guy and an amazing signing!
Good pickup.
Are there any players left that Farhan has worked with that they could sign? Maybe a pitcher?
Not Zaidi but Melvin might know a guy…
Snell and Montgomery…you’re up next.
Giants could use another starter, it’s not far-fetched.
Well giants got a very good player but anyway for giants fan dodger is a nightmare team this year
Giants are already in 3rd place. As a dodger fan, the padres always make me nervous. The padres have a ton of talent. Unfortunately they should of been this good when frank Mcourt was around because those were dark days as a dodgers fan!!!
It’s a three-year deal with opt outs and total of 54 million if he sticks around. That’s what he was always worth, maybe he held on for more but no one was biting. He might have a better year offensively and he opts, who knows?
About freaking time.
I was hoping Zaidi would pass on Chapman, but at the price I’m good with it. It does leave Davis without a position, and they aren’t going to get of much anything for him in trade, but I guess it’s better to have too many guys than not enough.
The opt-outs don’t bother me at all. So what if he has a great season and opts out of the last 2? The Giants can try to re-sign him, or make an offer to Bregman instead. I think it’s better to have a guy leave too soon, than hang around too long.
He won’t opt out if he’s bad. Why do people have so much trouble accepting the fact that opt outs are only good for the player, by definition?
Seam
“Why do people have so much trouble accepting the fact that opt outs are only good for the player, by definition?”
Because it’s not true
Since opt outs have value to the player, the player has to give up something in return to have them included. What they give up is money
With no opt outs.this wouldn’t be a $54 million deal. It’d be $60 million. Or $70 million or $80 – whatever
Paying less is definitely a benefit for the team
I hate opt outs. Never favors the team. We’ve lost a few good players to opt outs. Get at least 2 years and maybe an opt out in the 3rd season.
mab
Opt outs work both ways
They have value to the player, so, to get them, the player has to give up value. Usually money
So, instead of signing for 3/$54 with 2 opt outs they might have signed for 3/$65 or $70.
That’s where the benefit to the team is
Thanks for the thought filihok. Makes sense
Great compromise deal for both. I like it! The money goes down if he’s more of the norm. But he is a high floor guy for 3 years, that is if his bat gets back to being potent.
How are the Giants close to the luxury cap? They have no star players… Conforto? Robbie Ray?
not an overpay at all. phew, like it!
If the Giants are lucky, this deal might give them Evan Longoria 2.0. Not exactly slop, but far from filet mignon. And for team with a less than stellar farm system, losing that draft pick isn’t a wise move.
Giants will be lucky to win 80 games and come within 20 games of the Dodgers.
Playoffs? Not a chance!
Fair market price for Chapman.
Hope Chapman’s bat bounces back. Second pillow contract for a Borat client. Snell and Montgomery up next to take way less than what Scott told them they could get!
Wait a cotton pickin’ minute. You’re telling me in 2023, Davis had a better average, more home runs and more RBI’s than Chapman and the Giants are casting him aside and paying Chapman $54 million to replace him. Furthermore, they’re forfeiting a second round pick to do it.
I understand Chapman is a premier defender but it seemed to me Davis was serviceable and versatile on defense. Meanwhile, Snell and Montgomery remain unsigned and the Giants pitching staff is geared up and ready to go to war with a four man patch-worked rotation.
All this, coupled with the fact Chapman’s age is going up and his performance index is trending down makes this a very dubious decision and about as logical as Gavin Newsome’s California bullet train boondoggle.
lc
“Wait a cotton pickin’ minute. You’re telling me in 2023, Davis had a better average, more home runs and more RBI’s than Chapman and the Giants are casting him aside and paying Chapman $54 million to replace him. Furthermore, they’re forfeiting a second round pick to do it.’
Yes
Teams are not looking at average, home runs and RBi to make these decisions
I’ll be less happy about Chapman signing if it means Davis gets traded. Melvin can get plenty of playing time for Davis and we can use his bat. Some 1st base, 3rd base and dh at times.
Pretty much getting a bellinger caliber player at the end of the day for less money. Giants fans thought Sandoval was good Chapman is way better.
Another Boras client under-achieves contract-wise. Reportedly the Blue Jays offered Chapman $100 million a year ago. Blue Jays QO should have been snapped up by Chapman. He takes less and returns to white-knuckle crowd in a year when he could have turned QO into a decent stay-on with Toronto or same opt-outs. Big fail but at least he gets some Spring Training.
It was actually very smart to not take the QO. He gets $20M this year and has the security to get $18M and $16M in the next 2 if he is bad but can opt out at any time If he accepts the QO he only gets $20M this year.
Wow I said 60/3 and this is even lower
I’m not a scout but, Marco Luciano isn’t a special defender and hasn’t hit in MiLB. Who’s backing up at SS in San Francisco?
That’s why I think they should have brought Crawford back in that role. I think Ahmed is going to see lots of playing time. I haven’t seen anything special from Luciano. I don’t think he’s ready for a starting job at all. Casey Schmitt needs to go back to minors and learn how to hit too. I honestly think SS is going to be a big problem this year. Production just might be the same as what Crawford was the last 2 years.
Chapman’s worst season at 3B is so much better than the career year Davis had at 3B last year. Also, Davis is aging at the same rate Chapman is. (its kinda hard to get ones age to go down) Meanwhile, you think the way to build a staff is to sign the most expensive things on the Market. There is a thing called a budget. As to being cast aside, Davis is still on the team. He may be traded, but he could also be rotated between 3B, 1B, LF, and DH to provide rest to others while keeping his bat in the line up.
The Reds paid Candelerio 3/45. I guess it paid to wait out the market
Candelario is a better player.
2023 Candelario 117 wRC+, 3.3 WAR
2023 Chapman 110 wRC+ 3.5 WAR
FGDC projections
Candelario 107 wRC+, 1.5 WAR
Chapman 108 wRC+, 3.3 WAR
Fangraphs 3 year projections
Candelario 6,6 WAR
Chapman 9.1 WAR
Yes. I trust FanGraphs more than some rando on the internet
Anthony Franco: “ He made hard contact (defined as 95+ MPH) on 56.4% of batted balls. That was the highest rate for any qualified hitter in the majors”
Was Aaron Judge not considered a qualified hitter for this statistical category? He had a Hard Hit Rate of ~64% last season.
The “hard contact rate” argument is moot when you strike out 30% of the time.
The new “stat geeks” love to talk about hard hits, exit velocity, barrels like it equates success, it doesn’t. It’s a wildly overrated piece of a puzzle.
When Soto was with the Padres last season and struggled, that’s when exit velocity and hard hit percentages mattered, what was wrong with Juan Soto, well stats showed he was still walking the same, striking out the same and hitting the ball hard so ergo, Juan Soto was fine.
However dudes like Chapman, Wisdom etc have hard contact rates and exit velocities, who cares? They strike out a third of their at bats or more. I would hope, on the rare occasion they make contact with the ball it’s hit hard because they are literally just swinging as hard as they can.
The other thing, while people slob the knob of hard hits, that is ignored is the fact Chapman doesn’t really chase pitches (nor does Wisdom) good? I guess but it shows they are swinging through pitches in the zone which is awful.
A great example of exactly what you are speaking about is Giancarlo Stanton….he of the incredibly hard hit balls, with incredibly high exit velo’s, streaking over the fences….all while he hits .190 which is 19 hits with the potential to include all those stats per 100 at bats…….with at least 30%+ of the other 71 being K’s…….your eyes easily tell you that’s called rally killing at its highest……
Exactly, it’s a stat people have been quoting lately but not fully understanding or digging deeper into the numbers. It’s kind of like FIP, it’s just one small stat, not the end all be all
It’s exactly the thinking that got the Yankees into their 2023 predicament: look at how hard someone hits (hard hit rate + exit velo) and their launch angle….. without considering how often they miss the ball altogether.
Eliminating the shift, pitch clock, bigger bases, adding the DH have all helped the hitter. I think the shift really helps even the playing field for the lefty hitter. This might be one reason the Yanks added more lefty hitters besides giving them a more balanced line-up!
How can you have Wisdom and Chapman in the same sentence lol. Wisdom is straight buns
I love it! Boras gets his butt kicked! Should have been 85 million
Clear over pay
@teddyj: Clear display of ignorance on your behalf
Davis to the Cubs for pitching help?
Averages .222 with 23 home runs each season in the hitters friendly park north of the border but projected at 6 and 150? What 5 year old came up with that? And opt-outs are ridiculous if you dont want to play somewhere dont go or just sign a one year deal. Oh if i play like total trash or get hurt i guess i’ll stay. Real winners all around for letting that garbage become so commonplace
Ootd
Muted (baseball fan who hates baseball players. Also dumb)
This Whiff King will make every day more windy by the Bay.
This is a good get at the price. Giants are doing a good job filling in the gaps on what looked like a very flaccid offseason a couple of weeks ago. But there’s still the pitching to address. I hope the Giants can use some spare parts (JD or Conforto, Bart) to grab a veteran starter.
There are no starters available by trade, and certainly not for those guys.
Sleepy Jed needed to do this instead. Cubs have no real 3rd baseman. If he has a good year, he will opt out, so it’s less risky, which Sleepy Jed likes. But instead, Cubs will have Morel at third, who will make 40 errors, I bet.
This is a near-perfect move by Jed and Carter. It would have been easy for the Cubs to sign Chapman, but they went the smart route by passing him up, and sticking with Morel, at least until Matt Shaw proves ready
Giants have a ton of holes to fill. Chapman addresses one of them this year. I see either a one and done or another Mitch Hanniger. I’m betting on one and done. They have a lot of marginal players on the team. Time to take a risk and flip Davis, Yaz, Conforto and Slater for some marginal pitching – because even marginal pitching will be better than what the Giants have now. And Schmitt – go back to AAA and learn how to hit while Chapman mans 3rd base.
None of Davis (who can’t play D and is in his walk year), Conforto (who is expensive), Yaz (who is old), or Slater are worth anything of note. And no one has the roster spots to take more than one of them.
OMG, the Giants finally signed a big name FA!
Boras lost!!! He tried to bully the Giants and other teams… Too bad for his clients.
IMO, this is a great signing by the Giants. This might be a 10-WAR return for $54M.
There’s no chance of that at all. If he’s that good this year he will opt out.
Chapman will be all about Chapman in 2024. And what is best for Chapman is 3rd base – no SS. He wants to up his value and no QO in 2025, he could make some big cash.
I had him signing with the D-Backs.
Fail…
Mariners could have got him for this!?!! Just goes to show how cheap they really are ♂️
Great move! Now get us a pitcher, please!
Anybody can get players like Gerrit Cole and Juan Soto paid. It’s not hard look at the back of there baseball card and it tells the story. Boras has always had a hard time with 2nd tier players like Matt Chapman. Same with Stephen Drew, Kendrys Morales,and Kevin Millwood come to mind as players Boras totally over played his hand on. If reports are true that Chapman turned down 4/100 it just shows you Boras totally misread the market. I get turning down the 10/150 from Oakland but he’ll regret not taking that Toronto deal. This deal is a win for San Fran just like Bellinger signing with the Cubs was a win for Chicago.
Yes, but not everybody is Scott Boras. He has the rep, and gets the players.Teams like to leak reports when they don’t get the players today. They want their fan base to think they did everything to get the player. The Jays come to mind with the Ohtani deal, and the Padres and Giants with Judge. There are many others.
No not everyone is Scott Boras but he is the agent in question here isn’t he? Leaks are just part of negotiations. I’m not saying that’s right but it always has been and always will be. Way back when Pete Rose first hit free agency a lot of the offers made were made public. Our course teams want their fan base to think they did everything to sign a player. Although I really wonder if Othani really offered those deferrals to every interested team. Like I said above Boras doesn’t fair as well with non-super star player’s. Anyone could have gotten A-Rod paid. It won’t be hard to find a home for Juan Soto. It’s the Chapman’s and Montgomery’s of the world who are going to have a hard time getting top dollar not just this off season but for years to come. Teams value players totally different nowadays. Youth and team control really rule the day.
Soler can play a decent OF so he is not exclusively a DH. JD Davis has experience playing some 1B and DH besides 3B. I was surprised he has never played 2B. He also played OF but many years ago. Seems a high probability Davis gets traded. SF should be able to get a decent return even though he becomes a FA in 2025. Maybe combine another player with him. Goal Improve pitching.
Soler’s the worst OF in baseball. Flat unplayable, especially in a huge LF like SF.
He should have taken the QO, and come out this off-season without draft compensation attached. Unless he just didn’t like playing in Toronto. There is a reasonable chance that Toronto would have traded him to SF anyway this off-season.
BHCT
Why?
He gets basically the same amount of money. Plus he guarantees himself $34 million
What’s the advantage to him of taking the QO?
Can the Giants get draft assets if he opts out?? If so, it’s not too bad and it could turn out to be 2 yrs $40m contract.
Michol
No
Where’s the dude that argued with me about the Giants roster was set and no way they add any more free agent signing players. Can’t remember who but I think he needs to admit how wrong he was. I think it was the guy who called us clowns numerous times. I also think there may be a Snell addition soon.
Jays won’t miss him, the guy can’t hit
Reality is the NL West is the Dodgers division for 10 more years, and teams in the NL will take a back seat to the Dodgers and Braves for that time period. The only hope is to get hot like the D-Backs and Phillies did the last 2 years. Injuries and the random nature of sports give others more of a change. So you can say their is a chance!
Unfortunately your take on the Dodgers is most likely correct. Really no different than what they’ve done for years. The NL West is pretty much a wild card hope for teams behind the Dodgers. The Giants were a wild card possibility for a decent part of last year before the collapse. Maybe they can compete for the full season this year. So there is some hope I believe. Lots of good NL teams though.
Happy about the Chapman signing especially since there are so many on here that said because of the city no FA signings. Lots of wrong opinions. Also, I hope this doesn’t mean Davis gets traded. We need his bat badly. Melvin will make sure he will get plenty of at bats at first base. Please don’t trade him.
Happy for him and his family that they get to settle in close to home, but that’s about the only silver lining here
Clearly, Boris overplayed his hand and it’s not rumors. He was offered five with over 100 million to resign in Toronto at the end of last season, well reported up here
The fan in me is frustrated to see him sign for so little and not come back to Toronto where, of the 14 options we have to play second and third base, he would marginally be the best for this season….. I am very relieved that the jays did not have to commit any sort of term to Chapman
Cannot be overstated how his steady hand in the field, supported Bo Bichette over the last two seasons. Aside from that month of April last year, his offence was just gut wrenching to experience
Fans have commented on the stupid look on his face, Every time he struck out and stared back to watch the replay. It was painful, many an f shot and beverage were hurled in a direction after a Matt Chapman strikeout… I know clutch is it overly used term but this gentleman….was not very clutch
Hope he can turn it around, but for the sanity of many Giants fans out there, don’t be expecting 2019 Chapman, it’s just no longer there. Last season is the new ceiling, so if you’re comfortable with that you’re gonna love him.
What is the Giants plan for JD Davis now? They have lots of infield depth. Would love to see the Cubs trade for him as a 1 year stop gap at the hot corner as they wait and see on guys like Morel and Shaw. I am not great at determining player trade value, but would love to see the Cubs work out a deal that would include sending Smyly as part of the package for Davis. Cubs need to free up spots in the pen for guys with options so they can move guys in and out for fresh arms and the Giants need pitching depth. Probably takes more than Smyly but the cubs definitely have pieces they could move.
The plan has to be to trade him, as they have plenty of RH depth at the positions JD can play already. Smyly’s an interesting trade proposal. He’s one of those guys that feels like he was already on the Giants (even though he wasn’t). That’s the kind of arm they need, a stable veteran in case the young guys falter.
Scott-Smyly was already a Giant in 2020, the Covid shortened season
Lol, I always get Drew Smyly, Wade Miley, and Drew Pomeranz mixed up. They’re all journeymen that seem to have done a stint with every ball club.
Anyways, I’d be happy to have Smyly back to add some veteran stability to the back end of the rotation.
Chapman won’t be injured near as much as Longoria. Longoria was good when on the field, but that wasn’t often.
Instantly the second best defensive 3B in the NL, after Ke’Bryan Hayes of course.
Cp
” I am not great at determining player trade value,”
The vast majority of people who post here aren’t, and that doesn’t stop them
Baseball Trade Values is a site that might be of interest to you
baseballtradevalues.com/trade-simulator
They give Davis a value of $4.4 million
And Smyly a value of negative $4.8 million
So, money or other players would likely also need to change hands
Yea… I try to be at least realistic and could tell Davis has some value, and looking at Smyly, at least on the cubs, I see negative value. He was solid out of then pen, but not great as a starter with only 2 pitches. I know the Giants can use some veteran depth so maybe they can see a little more value than he has with the cubs, but I agree Cubs need to send money and/or a prospect to likely make it work. Cubs definitely have both. Would like to pick up Davis for one year until the Cubs see what they have in both Morel and Shaw.
Honest question here because I don’t know. Any thoughts on Chapman as a teammate and clubhouse guy. Seems to be a fairly low key guy but I haven’t followed him except for when he played against the Giants. Always liked his glove.
Chapman turned down a $100MM extension with the Blue Jays & signed for $54MM! LOL, LOL, LOL . . .
I don’t begrudge any player making as much as they can, while the $$ are available, but, hopefully, what’s happened to Bellinger, Chapman, Snell, and Montgomery this year will cause free agents to more HONESTLY & DISPASSIONATELY look at their positives & NEGATIVES (!) from a prospective employer’s view, before they allow an agent or their egos to convince them that they’re worth tens or hundreds of millions more then they’re actually worth.
Bellinger likely could have gotten more guaranteed $$ if he hadn’t been so foolishly greedy at the beginning of his free agency.
Similarly, Snell likely would be a Yankee with a $150+ MM deal if he looked honestly & dispassionately at his erratic career stats & the fact that he averages about 5.1 IP per game as a “starter,” which is Pathetic compared to Workhorses like Cole & Verlander, who consistently give you both innings & quality pitching.
Again, I don’t begrudge players the right to seek contracts that will make them & even their children set for life — what loving parent or grandparent wouldn’t Love to do that? — BUT AT LEAST BE HONEST WITH YOURSELF ABOUT YOUR FAULTS AS A PLAYER, FROM A TEAM’S PERSPECTIVE.
Mantle
How’d you type all that with a boot in your mouth?
More laborers brainwashed by capital
Why do you assume that what the players signed for is their actual value and that they aren’t being underpaid
Why do player need to look more closely at their faults instead of teams looking more closely at their strengths?
Your rebuke is Comical, filihok. I was fortunate enough to be paid almost $4MM dollars over my career, but I was NEVER dumb enough to ask for more than I was worth or more than I knew an employer could Justify paying me.
Chapman was one of the worst hitters in baseball after his hot April, yet he arrogantly expected someone to pay him $150-200MM for an obviously aging hitter entering his decline.
Snell has only pitched 180+ innings twice in his Career, but he arrogantly expected teams to pay him the kind of $$$ given to elite workhorse pitchers, like Cole & Verlander.
Cole has pitched 200+ innings 6 times already, and Verlander has done it 12 times.
Snell has pitched 200 innings, ZERO times! Yet, you think it’s bootlicking for me to think he’s Arrogant for wanting Cole & Verlander type $$$.
Btw, teams Obviously Look at a player’s strengths, but only an idiot wouldn’t look at a player’s faults & injury history, as well, before they gave him something like $200MM.
As for your saying “Why do you assume . . . players . . . aren’t being underpaid”? Are you delusional? given the following FACTS:
* The AVERAGE MLB salary last year was more than $4.5 Million ($4,525,719 to be precise, if you bothered to Google it, filihok).
* The MINIMUM salary in 2024 is $740,000, and according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor, the average U.S. annual salary in 2023 was “Just a Bit Outside” that, at $59,384.
* MLB players who accrue 172 days on an active roster or disabled list for 10 years, receive a Pension of $68,000 a year At Age 45!
* If a player waits until they’re just 62 to collect their pension, they’ll currently get $220,000 a year. (And that’s sure to go up in the future.)
* Partial pensions are earned for each quarter (43 Days) of service time, which in 2021 was valued at $5,750 Per Quarter.
* In 2017, teams contributed $12,000 Per Quarter into each player’s 401K plan. (I’m not sure what the # is today.) So, players who earned all 4 quarters during the 2017 season had $48,000 put into their Tax-Free 401K plans, at no cost to them. And $48,000 is close to the Average Salary of all Americans.
Are you making between $740,000 & $4.5 Million, filihok?
Do you have a pension that’ll pay you $68,000 a year at 45, filihok?
Do you have a pension that’ll pay you $220,000 a year at 62, filihok?
Athletes today are Rightly Paid as Entertainers. And as I made Absolutely Clear in my post, I don’t begrudge players making as much as they can.
But the idea that any players are getting vastly underpaid is hilarious.
Mantle
“As for your saying “Why do you assume . . . players . . . aren’t being underpaid”? Are you delusional? given the following FACTS:
* The AVERAGE MLB salary last year was more than $4.5 Million ($4,525,719 to be precise, if you bothered to Google it, filihok).
* The MINIMUM salary in 2024 is $740,000, and according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor, the average U.S. annual salary in 2023 was “Just a Bit Outside” that, at $59,384.
* MLB players who accrue 172 days on an active roster or disabled list for 10 years, receive a Pension of $68,000 a year At Age 45!
* If a player waits until they’re just 62 to collect their pension, they’ll currently get $220,000 a year. (And that’s sure to go up in the future.)
* Partial pensions are earned for each quarter (43 Days) of service time, which in 2021 was valued at $5,750 Per Quarter.
* In 2017, teams contributed $12,000 Per Quarter into each player’s 401K plan, (I’m not sure what the # is today.) So, players who earned all 4 quarters during the 2017 season had $48,000 put into their Tax-Free 401K plans, at no cost to them. And $48,000 is close to the Average Salary of all Americans.
Are you making between $740,000 & $4.5 Million, filihok?
Do you have a pension that’ll pay you $68,000 a year at 45, filihok?
Do you have a pension that’ll pay you $220,000 a year at 62, filihok?”
I only have a minute so I’ll just respond to this part
NOTHING you posted has ANYTHING to do with the question of if a player is overpaid or not
Is Yo Yo Ma a more amazing musician than Taylor Swift? Who do you think makes more money?
Pick the best player in a sport that no one watches, lacrosse, or something. That player is probably as good at lacrosse as the top 10 baseball players but surely not making the big money.
So you have to pick a sport or a style of music that attracts the massive audiences to make the big bucks. Then you have to rise to the top of that field. How many people are trying to be major league baseball or huge pop stars? Probably a similar portion of our population. But absent incredible talent, hard work, opportunities, and the ability to really shine when the moments are available …
You won’t make the big bucks.
So, is the lacrosse player wishing he had played baseball?
Boras approach is finally fading. Unless its a once in a lifetime star like Ohtani, teams simply arent interested in overpaying for free agents. They either resign them ahead of free agency or let them walk.
It didn’t go well, but he also didn’t have to best players to work with. I think he overplayed that hand.
Snell is good, but he’s been up and down
Bollinger, his 20221/2022 numbers were not good
Montgomery has been good
Chapman has been consistent so that’s good.
The best, no…but he did have 2,4,6 & 7 per MLBTR’s rankings. Even if you want to just say that the Bellinger one was pretty crazy and change that to 3,4,6 &7, he still had some of the best this offseason and, so far, has taken some pretty big L’s considering what was reportedly their asking price.
I think this is a bad signing for the Giants unless they end up grabbing another Snell. Giving up the QO penalty for 1 year of Matt Chapman is pretty rough.
Montgomery was a WS hero. Shocked he didnt get a fat deal. Snell is a 2 time cy young winner lol. But guys like bellinger & yelich are warning cases. Ya gotta be cautious with “young superstars” bec they can fade overnite. i hate boras, so i’m glad teams are shying away from bloated contracts.
Atkins inability to sign Vlad and Bichette will be his downfall! Jays are wishing they still had AA, sometimes you don’t know what you have until it’s gone!
What are you extending Vlad as? The 6+ fwar guy from 2021 or the 1 fwar guy he was last year? If it’s closer to the 1, yeah that’s fine…but I don’t think he’d do that. If it’s closer to the 6, hard pass.
The Giants need starting pitchers. Either that or a new GM.
The Giants just improved their defense by miles. A GG-caliber CFer, and a GG 3Bman turns a 4.50 ERA into 4.30.
Robbie Ray?
Nice deal for the Giants.
Chapman will have to be very bad to not beat 2/36m this offseaon given his 4.4 fWAR performance in 2023, but it’s a nice insurance policy for him—the Giants also helped their pitching by 30 runs, and here we are.
Next, Snell signs with the Mets for 1/$8m with a 15 year long opt-in at $10m per season.
Chapman isn’t groundbreaking for sure, but the Giants look sneaky good.
Another delusional player who thinks he is worth far more than he is
It is really hard to root for any player these days as so many of them are so stuck up on themselves
Yeah, before this players never preened or overrated themselves.
‘Homelessness is caused by the completely unneccessary bidding up of home prices because people want to make money off their homes’
lol you need a better grasp of economics. in a free market something only sells when price meets demand. if houses are being bid up, it’s because the demand for that house is high. not because the home owner is greedy.
i didn’t bother reading the rest of what you wrote because if you got that simple aspect of what drives an economy incorrect i’m sure the rest if your comment will be littered with inaccuracies as well
Dude lost 2 years and 46+ million dollars because of Boras and still gonna pay him a % . Most of these players are quite capable of representing themselves. Wainwright comes to mind. Overall he had a good career and was paid well. Imagine loosing 46 million then going to SF and loose your mojo.
The terms announced by the team do not match what this article says. For starters, it’s announced as a 1-year contract.
2024 – $16MM salary, $2MM signing bonus
2025 – $17MM player option ($2MM buyout)
2026 – $18MM player option ($3MM buyout)
2027 – $20MM mutual option ($1MM buyout)
Why does MLB use this stupid “buyout” language in their contracts?
There would be no difference in the amount the salary is, if you took each of those buyouts and added them to the previous year.
Example: 2024 salary of 16M plus 2M 2025 buyout is the exact same as a contract with an 18M 2024 salary, with no buyout.
It would make understanding mlb contracts simplier if the buyout language was eliminated. Is the reason to make fans think they got a better bargain?
If the option is picked up, that buyout is never paid. You can’t just add that buyout to the salary if it’s not paid. If he takes $17MM next year, that buyout doesn’t exist.
I guess I didnt explain quite to the end. I didnt think this was duping that many people.
=—————————–
According to Spotrac Luxury Tax, Chapman is being calculated this way.
$18M in 2024, with player option
$18M in 2025, with player option
$18M in 2026, with player option
$19M in 2027, with mutual option
—————————————–
Its the actual amounts Chapman will receive and It would make it much easier to understand/talk about.
Why not simplify? Because it seems a lot of people dont see, they are just moving numbers around for no reason other than to make the contract seem more complicated than it is.
Your math is giving him the buyout AND the next year’s salary. That isn’t how it works. If he takes that buyout at the end of this year and makes “18M” as you show it to be, then there is no 2025 salary. The buyout is usually paid immediately, not next year.
Let’s say he picks up the option. He’s still got his $16M in his pocket, and next year he makes $17M, not $18M as you stated. The buyout just goes away, not added to his salary.
Same for 2026. If he picks it up, he’s gonna make $18M. The $3M buyout is irrelevant.
“Your math is giving him the buyout AND the next year’s salary.”
What? I dont see how you dont get it. The bonus and multiple options makes this contract more complex, maybe thats confusing you.
Let me give you an example without the multiple years and bonus
Player Lou Gehrig signs a 2 year contract for 20M with a 2M buyout after the first year.
Year 1: $8M in 2024
Year 2: $12M in 2025, with a 2M buyout
That contract is the EXACT same payout as this simple version:
Year 1: $10M in 2024
Year 2: $10M in 2025, with an out clause, no buyout paid.
——————————
There is absolutely no difference in the two contracts. As proof look at Spotrac website and how they allot the luxury tax for Chapman’s contract, they allot $18M for each year, he decides to stay. Because in reality, without the complicated bonus and buyouts, thats what he’s making.
Of course, the article is updated right as I’m pointing this out.
Le be serios right now giants need to spend more money to compete with a super star dodger team cause dodger will be giants nightmare this season for sure
Blue Jays could have kept hik if they sweetened the deal enough. Shame they let him go
With these new contract details, it’s pretty clear Boris failed his client. I mean did he even need an agent at this point.
He is playing this year for less then the qualifying offer.
Personally I think all MLB players are grossly overpaid but with the current rate it seems the Giants did well here and a big fail for Boras.
Wilmer Flores to the Mariners makes perfect sense
Only to the Mariners.
Giants fans:: What’s your prediction for JD now? Will he be traded? Or in a backup role?
I don’t understand buyouts on player options. He gets $2M if he opts out and then he can sign another contract with another team? That’s a no brainer.
Two words. Evan Longoria. How did that work out? At age 30, Longoria hit 36 homers. Chapman hit 17. And 27 the year before that. Glove? Longoria won a GG at age 31 and hit 20 homers. That’s the year before the Giants signed him. Will Chapman hit 20 and win a GG? This was a necessary signing but judge it by what Davis brings in trade and what Chapman produces at the end of the year.
I feel like this is basically a one year deal. His offense (especially his power) will regress enough in that ballpark that they may move on from him after this season. Either way, a good contract for the Giants as they can bail at any time with all the buyouts worked into the deal.
The options are player options, not team options. The decision to bail out is Chapman’s, not the Giants.
Scotty B making his clients rich beyond their wildest dreams… lol.
They call it a Bargain, the best I ever had.