Free Agent Faceoff: Adam Duvall/Tommy Pham

The Dodgers and Padres are set to kick off the regular season with the Korea Series in Seoul less than two weeks from today, and MLB’s 28 other clubs will follow suit the week afterwards. At this late stage of Spring Training, it’s rare for free agents of particular note to remain available on the market, but a handful of quality players linger on the open market nonetheless. That group is led by front-of-the-rotation southpaws Blake Snell and Jordan Montgomery, though there’s a crop of interesting lower-level pieces available as well, ranging from veteran slugger J.D. Martinez to right-handed hurler Michael Lorenzen.

While the market is deepest in starting pitching at this point in the winter, there’s one other position where teams with a need will find a number of options worth consideration still available: the outfield. Michael A. Taylor is generally regarded as the best player remaining on the market in that group due to his superlative center field defense and a strong platform season in Minnesota that saw him slug a career-best 21 home runs. With that being said, a pair of veteran bats also remain available for teams hoping to add a bit more pop to their lineup or bench mix at this late stage in the offseason: Adam Duvall and Tommy Pham. The pair are both right-handed hitting outfielders with ten seasons of MLB experience under their belt across a combined ten different clubs. The duo also both took one-year deals last winter following a down 2022 season before bouncing back in 2023 to post above-average production at the plate, and are only five months apart in age.

Similar as they are, there are some key differences between the two. Pham has been the much more consistent regular of the two throughout his career, with his 481 trips to the plate in 2023 being his lowest figure in a 162-game season since he became a full-time player in 2017. Duvall, by contrast, has reached 450 plate appearances in a season just three times in his career, most recently during the 2021 season. In addition to having more experience under his belt, Pham has been the better hitter overall for his career with a triple slash of .259/.351/.435 (116 wRC+) as opposed to Duvall’s career .232/.291/.472 (98 wRC+) slash line. The difference in the pair’s career numbers is particularly noticeable against southpaws, whom Pham has posted an .834 OPS against for his career compared to Duvall’s .770 OPS against.

While availability on the field and career numbers seem to clearly favor Pham, Duvall isn’t without advantages of his own. Despite the disparity in career numbers, he’s actually been a slightly superior hitter in recent years, with a .231/.288/.487 slash line that translates to a 104 wRC+ since the start of the 2020 season. Over that same time period, Pham has slashed just .238/.325/.392 with a 99 wRC+. In addition to the slightly stronger offensive production in recent seasons, Duvall also offers the ability to play center field, with 1,070 2/3 innings of work at the position over the past three seasons. By contrast, Pham has stuck almost entirely to the outfield corners during that same time frame, starting just 14 games in center since the start of the 2021 season. While Duvall’s glove in center has generally been panned by defensive metrics (-5 DRS, -4 OAA in 2023), the ability to handle the position is surely notable for clubs that value positional flexibility or have a need in center.

While Duvall has been the slightly better offensive player in recent years, his lead over Pham in that regard is hardly commanding. Strong as Duvall’s recent offensive performance has been, his low on-base percentages and 31.5% strikeout rate since the start of the 2021 season leave him reliant on power output for his production at the plate. That’s suited him just fine, as he’s slugged a combined 71 homers over the last three years including a whopping 38 as a full-time regular during the 2021 season. Even so, it’s certainly fair to wonder if teams in search of a regular fixture in their outfield mix would prefer Pham’s more consistent production and stronger plate discipline, with a 24.1% strikeout rate and a strong 10.9% walk rate over the past three seasons in spite of his paltry .158 ISO over that same period.

Advanced metrics certainly look more fondly on Pham’s approach, as evidenced by Pham’s .361 xwOBA in 2023 which not only outstrips his relatively pedestrian .332 wOBA, but also Duvall’s .347 figure. By contrast, Duvall’s xwOBA last season left something to be desired as he posted a figure of just .306. That disparity between Duvall’s strong results and iffy peripheral numbers can be explained in part by his torrid start to the season that saw him slug ten extra-base hits in just eight games, and his relatively pedestrian numbers afterwards that saw him post a wRC+ of just 93 following his return from injury. While it’s certainly possible that Duvall’s wrist injury sapped some of his power upon his return to the field, it’s also worth noting that Duvall’s post-injury numbers are fairly similar to his 2022 performance, where he posted a lackluster 87 wRC+ with peripheral numbers to match.

Given the pair’s number of similarities, the choice between the two players could simply come down to fit on their hypothetical new club for many teams. Organizations looking to bring in a potential regular may be more likely to choose Pham thanks to his track record as an everyday player and more reliable approach at the plate. That being said, a team looking for a contributor off the bench could be more drawn to Duvall’s recent experience at all three outfield spots and his titanic power which can allow him to change the game with a single swing. If your team was to add one of the two veterans to its outfield mix ahead of Opening Day, who would you rather have?