The Braves announced this morning that they’ve optioned right-hander AJ Smith-Shawver to Triple-A Gwinnett, thus ending his bid for a spot in the team’s Opening Day rotation. He’ll begin the season in the upper minors and serve as one of the team’s first lines of defense should an injury occur on the starting staff.
It’s not an entirely unexpected move. The top spots in the Atlanta rotation are set in stone, with Spencer Strider, Max Fried, Charlie Morton and Chris Sale all assured roles heading into camp. That left the fifth spot to a likely battle between Smith-Shawver, Bryce Elder and offseason signee Reynaldo Lopez, whom the Braves plan to stretch back out as a starter after spending the last couple seasons in a bullpen role.
Lopez’s contract made him a favorite to begin with, but the fact that he’s yielded just one run and three hits with a 7-to-2 K/BB ratio and 53% grounder rate in eight spring innings surely hasn’t harmed his chances. Smith-Shawver, by comparison, has been tagged for seven runs on a dozen hits and three walks with 11 strikeouts in 7 2/3 spring frames. Elder, a 2023 All-Star, has had similar struggles to Smith-Shawver in his small sample of spring innings. In 7 2/3 frames, he’s been charged with six runs on the strength of 10 hits and three walks with 10 strikeouts. It might seem surprising to push an All-Star out of the rotation in favor of a converted reliever, but Elder did wilt in alarming fashion down the stretch in ’23, posting a 5.75 ERA with just a 15.1% strikeout rate against a 10.4% walk rate over his final 14 starts/72 innings.
The composition of the Opening Day rotation is in some ways immaterial — particularly for a Braves club that’ll enter the year as an overwhelming postseason favorite. In all likelihood, each of Lopez, Smith-Shawver and Elder will start games for the Braves this season. Injuries limited Fried to just 77 2/3 innings last year, while Sale has pitched only 151 innings over the past four seasons combined. Morton has been a workhorse, ranking sixth in the majors in games started and 11th in innings pitched dating back to 2018 — but he’s also entering his age-40 season. Injuries are an inevitability among big league pitchers, so the Braves will likely have to tap into their impressive collection of depth arms — headlined by Elder and Smith-Shawver — at various points in 2024.
While the Smith-Shawver demotion clearly isn’t a means of manipulating his service time, it’s still worth noting that the decision could have implications in that regard. The 21-year-old made his MLB debut in 2023 and started five games (plus one relief appearance), pitching to a 4.26 ERA with a 20-to-11 K/BB ratio in 25 1/3 innings. He picked up 50 days of service last season, meaning he’d reach a full year of MLB service with another 122 days on this year’s roster (roughly two-thirds of the season). If he reaches that full year of service, Smith-Shawver would be controllable through the 2029 season. If he spends fewer than 122 days on the roster, he’ll be controllable through the 2030 season.
Smith-Shawver soared from High-A to the majors in 2023, pitching to a combined 2.76 ERA across three minor league levels before making that MLB debut. Baseball America ranks him as the game’s No. 42 prospect. He’s ranked 63rd at FanGraphs and 69th at MLB.com.
Apparently, Trevor is waiting.
Trevor Dunn?
Mute button activated.
Trevor Story will be back soon. That’s my Story and I’m sticking to it.
Corey and Trevor are stupid AF
Tom, you made my day man!
If Lopez continues the good work, he should get the spot, not Elder. I fear Elder might get it “just because”, but let’s hope results win the job.
I think he should get it “just because”. The last 2 years he saved their rotation at pivotal times. There should be some reward. Spring training is a hard time to compete for a job. If he struck guys out he’d be a lock so making him battle for every start sends the message “we don’t believe in your stuff”. He does have absolutely filthy pitches but he simply can’t get away with mistakes. Also the situation with Lopez is odd. Even if he is good he won’t start in playoffs probably as he’ll be relieving then (and possibly fatigued even in pen). It does set him up to be a full time starter next year if they lose Fried and Morton.
In all fairness his dad said the part about golfing, not him, to my knowledge. Many a Braves pitchers has liked their golfing between starts. Elder is one.
Lopez hasn’t been a SP since 2018. He pitched mostly long relief with the Sox. He was most often a closer with the LAA and Guards, where his 100+ mph fastball was effective. I think he would be a good #5 with Atlanta.
The guy has 6 saves in his career. He hasn’t ever been a closer for anyone esp CLE who has Clase.
johncal: You’re right about the Guards, but I know he was used in short relief with both teams and just threw as hard as he could since he was no longer used in long relief.
I think elder prob won’t get it simply because he has options left. Otherwise I’d understand them just giving it to him
It makes sense. Even if he made the team out of spring training he would be a 5th starter at best and would end up with an innings limitation. Injuries will eventually strike. Let him work on his pitches at AAA or AA and then bring him up later in the summer.
He is extremely raw. It’s obvious when I see him pitch. He has great stuff tho. Honestly I find it 10% or so worrisome that he always says he didn’t really prefer to play baseball, as he likes football more, but he enjoyed it a lot when he realized he could get several days “off” after his start to go golfing. I’d prefer he really love baseball but perhaps he will. All this may be trivial. I know
Rishi: In a recent interview Rendon said he didn’t like baseball and it shows with his lengthy recovery time from his many injuries. Maybe Smith-Shawver should quit BB and become a pro golfer and see if he can make as much money as he can in bb. Maybe Mahomes should give up football and play bb. Some players don’t appreciate what they’ve got (not Mahomes).
Did Rendon say he “didn’t like baseball” or it’s never been a top priority for him? Very different. “No hablas engles today” Rendon has always been one for quotes, but I appreciate he’s able to lock a quarter of a billion dollars to show up 37% of the time in 3.3 seasons to be less than mediocre. You have to try more to win the lottery, so I just hope he doesn’t kill anyone below him falling off a cliff.
Really wish Rendon would read the quote in Colossians 3: 23-24 if he’s using faith and family as a crutch rather than holding himself accountable.
Huh?
He is overrated like almost all braves pitching prospects the last decade
Yet they won a world series. So what’s it matter?
You mean like Spencer Strider and Max Fried?
Max Fried, Spencer Strider and Julio Teheran
Julio was a prospect more than a decade ago though
Would Fried count? He came up through SD
Fair enough. Fried was at Rome in 2016 and Gwinnett in 2017, but he was in Padres system 2012-2014.
Teheran goes more than a decade back – true that
lol at saying Teheran. Number 1 prospect. Fried wasn’t a brave prospect. Strider wasn’t highly thought of. owned
Spencer Strider
Draft: 2020, Atlanta Braves, Round: 4, Overall Pick: 126
I’ll take the “W” for this one.
On the subject of Strider, how the heck was he not even in the final three for the Cy Young last season?
It was very close between #’s 2 through 5. Webb and Gallen had more innings and a much lower era. So did Wheeler. Strider had more wins and more strikeouts.
Snell pitched only 6 fewer innings than Strider and had an ERA 2.25 that was 1.60 lower than Strider at 3.86.
I think putting Strider at # 2 is defensible, but so is putting him at # 4.
The Braves thought highly of him. Owned.
AJSS will be back soon. He made the majors at a very young age and held his own last year. If anything, he’s a bit underrated right now.
I will agree with you here, but I should also caveat the Braves have changed their way of thinking in recent years. The Braves had gotten into the mentality that ‘pitchers’ were the way to draft, instead of arm talent. They kept coming away with control artists and pitch to contact types. They did this because it is what won them so many division titles despite less than average offensive output.
Recently, the Braves have switched the flip and gone with more offense to get them into the playoffs, and gone to drafting K pitchers with big arms or nasty breaking pitches. Only time will tell if the last 3-4 drafts will pan out from a pitching perspective in that regard.
Not surprising.
Snell to Atlanta confirmed. Not really though.
Lopez’s contract made him a favorite to begin with, but the fact that he’s yielded just one run and three hits with a 7-to-2 K/BB ratio and 53% grounder rate in eight spring innings has surely hasn’t harmed his chances.
Editor?!?!
The Braves used 16 starters last year, 12 in 2022, 11 in 2021. So, being sent down during spring training means very. very little. Smith-Shawver (and many others) will be back in Atlanta this year. Also, he is just 21 and has much to learn about pitching.
Agreed. The OP mentioned it was immaterial, and both of you are spot on. It’s going to be a revolving door for SP for almost all MLB clubs the way the game is played today with max torque pitching through two turns of the lineup and done..
He is not a good pitcher anyway. Guess they are not stuck with another eh pitcher in Elder.
Elder is a beast! Give the man the ball and let him slow toss it up there.
Both Elder and Smith-Shawyer belong in MiLB for now.