The Astros are facing various questions around the health of their rotation and are now in “serious pursuit” of Blake Snell, according to a report from Ken Rosenthal and Chandler Rome of The Athletic.
At this point, it’s unclear if any kind of deal is close but it’s a noteworthy development and resembles an earlier situation for the Astros. Back in January, their bullpen took a hit when Kendall Graveman required season-ending shoulder surgery. Astros general manager Dana Brown initially downplayed the club’s desire to go out and sign free agents to address the problem but the club signed closer Josh Hader a few days later.
In the intervening two months, a lot has changed with the rotation. The Astros already knew that Lance McCullers Jr. and Luis García Jr. were going to be starting the year on the injured list, as both underwent elbow surgeries last summer, but this spring has seen a couple more dominos fall. Justin Verlander has been slowed by some right shoulder soreness which doesn’t seem terribly serious but it delayed him enough that he’ll start the season on the injured list. Earlier today, José Urquidy departed his start early due to some pain in his right elbow.
If Urquidy needs to miss time, then the Opening Day rotation would project to include Framber Valdez, Cristian Javier and Hunter Brown in the front three spots. J.P. France was also slowed by a shoulder issue this spring but seems to perhaps be on track to take over a spot at the back end. That would still leave one rotation spot open and Houston is a bit thin in terms of options to step in there.
Ronel Blanco has just 58 1/3 innings of major league work on his ledger and was only recently moved from being a primary reliever to more of a swing role. Brandon Bielak has a 4.54 ERA in his 174 1/3 innings but with uninspiring peripherals, including an 18.9% strikeout rate and 10.1% walk rate. Shawn Dubin has just nine innings of major league experience.
It seems the club is considering a notable strike in free agency to get out of this injury hole, similar to their move to grab Hader after Graveman went down. Brown again downplayed the club’s desire to add pitching, including Snell, though that was before Urquidy’s injury surfaced.
Some may question whether Snell is ready to help a club like the Astros since he hasn’t been pitching in official spring games and Opening Day is less than two weeks away. Jon Heyman of the New York Post reports that Snell recently threw 60 pitches over four simulated innings to try to get ready outside of official Spring Training contests. Mark Feinsand of MLB.com relays the same info, adding that scouts from the Giants and Astros were in attendance.
Snell has lingered on the open market far longer than anyone anticipated coming off a Cy Young season. He turned in a 2.25 ERA over 180 innings with San Diego a year ago. He surely envisioned a long-term pact at the start of the offseason, but a deal to his liking has obviously yet to materialize. At this point, it looks as if he’ll follow in the path of Cody Bellinger and Matt Chapman and turn to a short-term guarantee with opt-outs. Rosenthal and Rome report that he is believed to be seeking a three-year guarantee with a $30-32MM annual salary that would allow him to test free agency after each of the next two seasons.
The cost for the Astros would go beyond whatever it takes to get Snell to sign. They’re into luxury tax territory. RosterResource calculates their 2024 CBT number around $256MM. A contract anywhere near Snell’s expected price would vault them beyond the $257MM second penalization and the third threshold at $277MM.
Houston did not exceed the competitive balance tax a year ago, however. Unlike some other reported Snell suitors (most notably, the Yankees), the Astros are not facing exorbitant fees as repeat payors. They’d be responsible for a 20% tax on their next $1.3MM in spending, followed by a 32% tax on the following $20MM ($6.4MM) and a 62.5% hit on the ensuing $20MM. Signing Snell to a contract with a $32MM average annual value would come with an approximate $13.3MM tax bill for this year.
A Snell signing would also deal a small but not completely insignificant hit to the farm system because he rejected a qualifying offer from the Padres. The Astros forfeited their second-round pick (#64 overall) in the upcoming draft and relinquished $500K of international signing bonus space to sign Hader. They’d need to surrender another $500K from the international pool and their third-round pick (#102) for Snell. Meanwhile, pushing past the $277MM luxury threshold — which would be all but assured for a Snell signing — would move back Houston’s first-round pick in the 2025 draft by 10 spots.
F
I’m told “Trevor is waiting.”
Guess he will keep waiting.
Hell yes. Bring in JD Davis next
Snell pitching at Minute Maid? Very interesting…
Sportrac has the Astros at about $250M for 2024 payroll. Blake would blow that sucker up. Plus not sure where that leaves Bregman or Tucker…
It leaves those two the same place as before: leaving at the end of their contracts.
Snell would obviously opt out after this season, assuming he stays healthy. Wouldn’t affect those guys.
What if he stays healthy, but has his typical, unspectacular season? Bet he ops in.
All reports that I’ve seen are that they want to keep one of Bregman and Tucker. Assuming (or even banking on) Snell leaving after one year is a dangerous path.
Pads will perhaps swoop in last minute and offer restructured deal that keeps them under CBT.
Snell
Darvish
Musgrove
Cease
King
Lol no they won’t
okay, maybe not
They have 13m, that’s impossible
deferrrrrrr
Even with defer they aren’t getting it down to 13m.
then I defer my rumor to 2029
Just enough to sign Michael Lorenzen.
@simm another made up rumor from boras, figured he needed to change it up after the angels and Yankees weren’t working.
They’ll wait 5 years for him to pitch well again…
Snell will soon be joining Davis in Oakland. They have been holding onto their money for just such an opportunity!
Said the same thing about Hader.
No!!!!!
Boras laughing maniacally.
Yeah he really cleaned up with the Chapman and Bellinger contracts lol.
Well just wait to see what Snell and Montgomery make.
Is that because it’s common knowledge every player makes more money when they avoid ST, mainly because no GM’s have bitten all the last 4 months on boras and his generally, outragious demands?
This is Scott boras trying to get Texas to pay Montgomery and Yankees snell Astros won’t sign either one.
Meanwhile, Perry Minasian sulks in a corner of his office.
Looks like Urquidy is toast then …..
No No No No!
Maybe this breaks the trend but every time I’ve seen Astros ‘seriously pursuing’ someone they get their guy
I think that’s the way of saying Jim Crane says make it happen. When he says it they tend to do it.
absolutely brilliant article with Crane getting involved
si.com/mlb/2019/10/01/houston-astros-zack-greinke-…
Now is the time to get a better deal on Snell.
Let’s see what Snell gets.
Only two seasons where he exceeded 130 innings pitched, but he is quite good for 5 innings when he can take the mound.
I wouldn’t want to be the one who has to come up with a contract for him, I’m too risk adverse.
At times the Padres fans wanted to run him out of town. And then at times he wad an ace. Contract year. He exceeded expectations for his forever home.
We’ll count you out of the running then southi
FULL THR- wait, wrong team.
Houston is one of the few teams willing to deal with Boras and with the Mets paying the lions share for Verlander i guess why not?
The Beatle’s said it best with the song “I Wanna Hold Your Hand” Any team signing Snell will have to do that to keep him interested. If not coddled, he will fall apart. Ask Don & Mud. It might have even been part of their contract to take Snell on shopping trips. Brutal but true.
Digging deeeeeeeeeep for that comment.
I dig a pony
Normally I’d be skeptical since the Astros aren’t known for pursuing free agents like Blake Snell, but Ken Rosenthal is more reliable than if it was Jon Heyman reporting. Jose Urquidy must really be hurt, and Verlander is already going to start the season on the IL, so this rumor has legs.
Wonder what it does to the odds of bringing Bregman back if they get Snell.
Joe,
Hypothetically speaking, if Cashman isn’t able to sign Soto next free agency, and if the Astros aren’t able, or aren’t willing to bring back Bregman, would you want Cashman to pursue him? Your question made me think on this little scenario.
Would say no on Bregman. I think if the Yanks are signing a vet infielder they would resign Gleyber.
I’d be against signing Bregman. He’s going to be 31 and the Yankees already have too many guys on the wrong side of 30 as it is. Not to mention that I’m not super excited for former Astros signings. Cole being an exception.
“Wonder what it does to the odds”…
Zero chance if they get Snell. Crane isn’t going over the Luxury tax line.
Crane isn’t going over the Luxury tax line.
====================
I thought they were already over.
Cashman really does need to pull out all the stops next offseason for Soto. His age alone is already a plus for an aging Yankees team. And yes, I agree that Crane won’t bring Bregman back if they sign Snell.
JoeBrady,
The Astros would be crossing the first tier with Snell, I believe they’re 3 or 4 million away, but I don’t think Crane would cross the next threshold.
Trashman only does what Hal tells him to do. Its very simple, once we got our marque player we make our fan base think we’re working as hard as possible, but under no circumstance do not sign any high priced players….anyone can make the playoffs. and we will scam the fan base.
They crossed the first tier with Hader’s signing.
Don’t you think Cashman learned from the Stanton contract? Signing someone who should really be a DH to a long term contract at top dollar is never a good thing. Only way to consider it is if Soto will accept DH money. But he won’t, because there is not a lot of intelligence among the owners.
Zach Dezenzo is rising fast through the Astros system and like we saw with Jeremy Pena when they let Correa walk the Astros aren’t afraid to give the reigns at a position to a rookie. With or without Snell odds aren’t very good they even try to bring Bregman back
League is cooked if they get Snell
Bauer is more Houston’s kind of guy.
You should mute yourself after that ridiculously ridiculous comment.
Bauer and Bregman in the same clubhouse is probably a very bad idea
Bauer is being black balled!
Bauer likes his women black and blue
So did Roberto Osuna.
Blake snell is drag it out to far
Snell’s pace
Snell looks like a guy you’d find under your car at night trying to hand saw your catalytic converter.
Perfect fit for Houston!
I laughed way too hard at this.
That picture is kinda creepy.
that picture is kind of realistic.
With some fentanyl-laced pills in his pocket
At this point I don’t care who signs Snell or Montgomery. We’re 2 weeks from opening day. Just sign a 1 year deal. Test Free Agency again for the ’25 season. I think there’s like 7 or 8 Boras clients that are FAs next year. Including Soto. The FA market for next year is stacked. Are than this off season.
Dang, the Astros would be sitting pretty with Snell on a short-term deal.
The Cheating Astros and Bauer would be a match made in HEAVEN!!!
Gulp huh ?
Dipoto and Stanton major L
I think this is happening, peeps. Astros don’t play like my Yanks do.
Yankees better pounce on Michael Lorenzen while there’s still time. They’re whiffing on everyone else.
Whatever happened to Forest Whitley, is that guy healthy? I’d throw him or one of those other flamed out prospects in the #5 spot and hope for the best before bringing in Snell. Jordan Montgomery wanted to stay in Texas until the Rangers ghosted him, and wouldn’t cost them a pick or international pool money. I’d lean towards him, but I’m not an Astros fan.
He’s hurt and he got moved to the pen.
Whitley is hurt again and will no longer be a starter. Bullpen is his fate now unless goes elsewhere
He will be a yankee my mid night
Tiger’s FO.
Asleep.
Tigers need a RH power hitter. Snell ain’t that.
Skubal
Maeda
Flaherty
Manning
Mize
Olsen
Why would they waste money on another starter? They have Gibson-Long, Brieske, Flores, Madden, Englert, and Jobes waiting in the wings for depth.
Exactly. Manning, Mize, Olsen and Skubal can start the season in the minors leagues. The Tigers can assist the Boars’ players reach thier salary goals on a one year salary and team option for what they are asking for with a complete waiver of any no trade rights. Can you remember how some teams help make trades happen? Do you think we could a get top prospect? I think so.
They.should.hire.the Superfife.
I’m kinda sick.ofmthe bs. It’s all turned.into a giant B.fight.
As a bonus, our real pitchers come up mid-season, fresh.
Hire the Superfife!
File under: Discussions I Should Not Have Had in Public
Are you really saying that Tarik Skubal is not a real pitcher/should start in the minors?
I do not hate the Houston Astros enough to wish them luck in getting Blake Snell.
I do dislike the Astros enough. Anyway, interesting when rotation takes a hit where are the Red Sox and Mets in trying to stay competitive as far as Snell/Montgomery/etc?
When all are healthy, that’s going to be one hell of a staff. And bullpen as well.
Jose Urquidy must be done for the year
That and Verlander is probably hurt more than people realize.
Astros have no prospects unlike the Rangers.
You need as much help as possible when you can no longer cheat.
Where you guys coming up with such original material? You should be a comedian, my man. You and Camden.
this is not good
Come on Arte. Step up!
Umm …
Winners gonna win. Haters gonna hate. Deal.
Exactly!
This makes sense with all their pitching injuries.
Bummer – I was hoping nobody bails out Boras – will see.- whoever signs Snell/Maritinez/Montgomerry should be able to pick them up on the teams terms or even on the cheap
Roscoe says they’re in “hot pursuit.”
Also a passable John Cusack flick
Sheriff Buford T. Justice says “high-speed pahsoot.”
Somebody is going to get a good deal on Snell on a one year deal or a multi year deal with opt outs.
No. Someone will overpay on a short term contract, rather than a long term contract. They will still overpay.
That would kill there draft this year
Sacrificing a draft pick and international money would make this a very questionable move. Obviously Blake Snell has got talent, but he’s kind of like Cody Bellinger in that there is injury and inconsistency to worry about.
I wonder if they are talking to Montgomery since he doesn’t carry that baggage.
That lack of baggage is huge, but apparently the Astros just want the best talent that’s on the market. I would say add bullpen arms, pass on both of them. Bregman and Tucker contracts are coming up and the money should go there.
What remaining bullpen arms would you want them to add?
The Houston Padres
So are the Giants.
The Astros pitching staff is depleted. They might be struggling this year.
The move would signify one last all in with this group.
The two teams that want Snell the most, the Yankees and the Astros, both have to pay more than double the money to sign him.
And the Angels are the Angels.
Not the best spot to be in.
I have zero stake in it, yet it kills me to think of Snell leaving that $150 million on the table. Yeesh.
The Astros wouldn’t “have to pay more than double the money to sign him.” The article explains the details.
At this point in time, I’m sure it’s killing Snell as well.
I am not a LAA but I can em/sympathize not wanting to get burned on another bad contract by signing Snell.
The 1st 10 times hurts and then you just get Numb and paralysis by overanalysis sets in – kind of
10X burned, 5x Shy.
I like a lot of the moves the LAA have made.
They built a solid deep bullpen.
They could use one more impactful offensive player, young players to bloom and better health eg Rendon, Trout etc.
LAA 2024 The Post Ohtani Blues Season
I believe they are a borderline WC team
But I’ve been wrong before
John Tudor 2.0
You can compare their overall stats but from my memory Whitey Herzog managed StL Tudor was a vital BIG game LHSP and a thorn into why the NYM didn’t make it to more than 1 WS in 1985, 1987. No wildcards available back then of course
Tudor was better in the games that really mattered.
Another lefty Hurst and Mike Scott just about cost the NYM a WS in 1986. Almost
Not really in 1988 other reasons like that Bulldog Orel
It appears Scott Harris has been secretly auditioning for Luke Nelson’s band…..
who knew…..?
Teams should avoid opt outs unless they have the opt out decision.
What? You want all the power with teams? Why? They already underpay players their first 6-7 years.
The Astros are probably looking for a trade partner but Blake Snell I seriously doubt.
Astros going to overpay for a 5-inning overrated pitcher.
They really like his trash can banging
Wow, how original Mr.Camden. I wouldn’t expect anything less from you.
Keep y0ur day job, chief.
This is NOT across the finish line YET or maybe never but apparently HOU is NOT conceding the World Series to LAD, ATL, BAL, TEX and other
“better teams on paper”
HOU may have a relatively small window before Bregman and Tucker possibly leave plus Altuve skills start to decline
Not to pick on NYY but they are at a Crossroads after having good years since 2017.
Injuries, poor judgement, bad signings, prospects never reach their potential abound but NYY have a lot of company in organization dysfunction
On another front I have a “serious headache on the S L O W never ending drip, drip, drip of this Free Agency period.
Good Grief WTF? Argh
… to mix metaphors
We all knew the Astros weren’t stepping back when they signed Josh Hader with further confirmation by extending Altuve. I have no idea what “dysfunction” you are talking about. Every big market team have made poor acquistions in hindsight.
The smart move is either Clevenger or Lorensen!
Yeah If I wasn’t already cynical about most issues – many rumors may be totally made up (or at least exaggerated) to get teams to finally sign the long holdout player.
Please can we just have Snell, Monty, JDM, ML and MC just sign with Japan or Korea or an Independent baseball team so we can just move on to other issues like the disaster of the new uniforms
Let’s get Bauer. Snell would be awesome and Montgomery good, but I think we need $$ for extensions. Bauer made mistakes in how he handled his business and he’s paying for it. Astros should have some sense of dealing with past mistakes. The Astros are never going to win over the general public’s perception and we as fans have to understand that’s just the way it is. So f it and go get Bauer and extend Tucker and Bregman.
MLB is done with Bauer.
What is the fascination with bauer? the massive off field issues aside. Its not like this guy was all that great when he was in mlb ..consider this he pitched in all or parts of 10 mlb seasons he was average or downright bad in all but 2.5 really good ones. So lets not get it twisted here hes now 3 years removed from mlb competition alot has changed ie pitch clock..no more tacky stuff..there is more reason to believe he will not be any good if he returns than some savior…sure hes willing to pitch for the minimum..but most times in life you get what you pay for..good luck with bauer.
When Bauer was an active MLB pitcher he had more than 12 wins in a season once. The time period he was dominant was not long and is definitely over.
The last thing any MLB team wants is to have Bauer on their pitching staff and to have a big playoff game up with a lot attention on it, then the media dredges up all the horrific stories of him beating up women.
It doesn’t take a Marketing degree to figure that he’s simply bad for business and not worth the hassle
Ken Rosenthal carries water for Scott Boras. Until the strike, he was a respected commentator. Now, a report from him saying anyone is in ‘serious pursuit’ translates for me as Boras concerned he’ll blow another one. this offseason.
How’s that “serious pursuit” coming?
Let Snell and Montgomery sit out the season. Boras and his greed.
The Astros and Padres love to swoop in at the last minute and get their man. Good for them for trying, unlike most of these supposedly poverty-stricken teams.
I see an awful of of comments from those sucking on the free teat. Pony up.
Super Genius Wile E Coyote chases the Roadrunner. Dog chases cat on a hot day. The Slowskis those charasmatic tortoises with their slow internet speed. Any Day Now. Yawn.
If Snell goes to Hou shame on you Texas Rangers. You have a dynasty in the making. New stadium big time revenue bring back Monty or sign Snell.
Bring back Monty!
The Rangers are good enough to not need Snell’s occasional brilliance, whereas Montgomery’s steadiness and innings keeps some pretty bad pitching at the back end off the mound.
Snell “is believed to be seeking a three-year guarantee with a $30-32MM annual salary that would allow him to test free agency after each of the next two seasons.”
—-I’d much rather pay Snell something like 1/40m without giving him the option of hanging around for 93m total is he’s bad.
What happens if you sign him to the rumored deal and he puts up the expected 1.5 WAR season (the average of his 2019-2022 seasons)? You get a second year for another $31m. And quite possibly a third, never mind that he’s now in his 30s and decline’s a-coming.