With Spring Training underway, here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on around the baseball world headed into the weekend:
1. Bohm, Phillies await arbitration results:
Just two arbitration cases have yet to reach their conclusion: that of Phillies third baseman Alec Bohm, and that of Marlins southpaw Tanner Scott. According to a report from Scott Lauber of the Philadelphia Inquirer, Bohm had his hearing yesterday with a verdict expected sometime today. Bohm requested a $4MM salary for the 2024 campaign while the Phillies countered with a $3.4MMM figure. Both figures come in below MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz’s projection for Bohm, which landed at $4.3MM. Bohm appeared in 145 games for Philadelphia last year, slashing an above-average .274/.327/.437 while splitting time between first and third base. With Bryce Harper set to take over first on a permanent basis this year, Bohm figures to get everyday reps at the hot corner in 2024.
2. Will Orioles look to add more pitching?
Yesterday was a tough day for the Orioles pitching staff, as the club announced that right-hander Kyle Bradish is suffering from a UCL sprain and will start the season on the injured list. To make matters worse, left-hander John Means is a month behind schedule entering camp.
The club’s rotation now figures to be led by a duo of Corbin Burnes and Grayson Rodriguez entering the season, with Dean Kremer, Tyler Wells, and Cole Irvin rounding out the group. Means would likely replace Irvin or Wells whenever he’s cleared to return to the roster. Solid as that group is, it’s easy to see how Baltimore could benefit from the addition of another arm, particularly given the ominous nature of Bradish’s injury. If the club looks to make an addition this spring, Dylan Cease has been subject to trade rumors all throughout the winter, while Blake Snell, Jordan Montgomery, Michael Lorenzen, Hyun Jin Ryu and Mike Clevinger linger on the open market.
3. Merrifield signing on the horizon?
Recent reporting has indicated that veteran second baseman Whit Merrifield is likely to sign on with a new club this weekend as he fields interest from five teams. A three-time All Star, the 35-year-old sports a career .284/.330/.420 line and has generally augmented that production with strong stolen base totals, the versatility to play both the infield and the outfield, and relatively low strikeout rates.
It’s unknown which teams are interested in the veteran’s services at this time, though the Pirates could be a strong speculative fit as a club that had reported interest in adding a second baseman earlier this winter but has yet to do so. The Padres could also make sense as a fit for Merrifield given their glaring need for outfielders and the small chance that incumbent second baseman Ha-Seong Kim could still be moved at some point.
This is Alec Bohm of the career 0.8 bWAR. He should just be happy he has a major league job, much less pouting for more money. But arbitrators being clueless, he might actually win his case with MLBTR cheering him on. Gotta love arbitration.
We all know what WAR is good for.
Again, the arbitrary “replacement” across the board is an inane concept, as every team is built differently and needs for a given position is different from team to team.
As far as arbitration, the player usually wins but it depends on a good lawyer and how they present their case. You can probably find numbers to support either side for each player.
There are only certain pre-approved stats that are allowed to be used as evidence in an arbitration hearing. WAR is not one of them. It may be added in the next CBA, but until then, it is not a factor in arbitration.
Like I said, you gotta love arbitration. A guy like Bohm who’s barely above replacement level may win his case, when it’s questionable if he should even have a job, especially a starting job, in the majors.
Bohm is either the best or second best ( Castallanos), rh hitter in the Phillies line – up. He is much better than you think he is. D D knows the value of Bohm.
Yeah, Alec Bohm with his career .731 OPS. He’s right up there with Henry Aaron as a right-handed hitter.
You either don’t watch the Phillies play everyday, or don’t understand what you are seeing!!
Bohm is the “best or second best” RH hitter? Trea die?
Dude…I like Bohm but he’s maybe the 3rd best RH hitter on our team. Have you forgotten about Turner and Realmuto?
Let’s agree that he’s the fourth best right handed hitter on the team.
Turner
Realmuto
Castellanos
Bohm
Sosa
Pache
Nola
Wheeler
3 other right handed hitting pitchers then…
Rojas
I did forget about Turner. J T is not a better hitter than Bohm anymore.
Reaumuto is the fourth best, behind Turner, Castallanos, and Bohm.
lh
Per ZiPS (which, yes, I trust more than just guessing)
Turner 124 OPS+
Realmuto 107
Castellanos 104
Böhm 102
See Casey, he won and gets his $4 million. I know you’re thrilled for him!
I respect your opinion but JT might be getting older but I still want him in a clutch spot more than Bohm for now and I like Bohm a lot.
3.7 fWAR
Surely, one stat and the opinion of a MLBTR commenter says everything everyone needs to know, though.
It’s funny that commenters who know they’ve been muted will still weigh in when they can’t tell the difference between a little humor and a nasty jab.
Maybe MLBTR could adjust the notices accordingly?
@CaseyAbell: The Phillies offered $3.4 million, and the salary arbitration process involves submitting figures, not “pouting for more money.”
Why do you have a problem with a player trying to negotiate for more than the team is offering?
Casey, you sure seem like a pleasant person to be around.
Yeah he hit 20 Homer’s and drove in 97 runs. That clearly is worth .4 WAR. I get it he’s not good with the glove but the kid can hit. He’d make a good DH. With Harper at First that spot should be open.
Bohm is at least an average fielding third baseman. He has improved greatly in the field in the past year and a half.
Schwarber is the dh. Bohm will play everyday at third this year.
The numbers say that each of the past 3 years Bohm cost his team double digit runs in the field. Obviously Schwarber is even worse than that in the outfield . So for now Bohm will be the everyday Third Baseman. Make no mistake Bohm’s future is at First or DH. Those spots being blocked he’ll play 3rd.
He needs more pop for a kid his size. I like his bat. His defense has improved. He can play 1st in a pinch and he is playoff tested. I think he is worth 4 million. Screw bWAR.
Right on all counts!! I think his power is finally coming around. Bohm has always been a line drive hitter, and is learning to lift the ball, for more power. I think 25 – 28 hr’s this year, with 100 RBI, and a .285 ba, is about right.
I’ve canceled all of my weekend plans so I can focus on Whit’s decision as it happens.
Same, bro.
I haven’t even been able to sleep for the last few days, the anxiety of Whit Merrifield possibly going to a division rival of my team has been absolutely debilitating for me.
@King Floch,
So, what you’re saying is you’re at Whit’s end?
At least he didn’t say he didn’t give a Whit about it.
Well played, lads.
Very Whitty replies 😉
On a more serious note, as a Pirates fan, I’d love to have Merrifield, but at the same time, I’d like to see Peguero and Triolo get a shot at starting at 2B. Shelton likes versatility, so he may prefer Merrifield over Peguero. Triolo should be a lock to make the team as a Utility guy.
Orioles have Seth Johnson on the 40 man already, and Cade Povich and Dylan McDermott pitched at AAA last year. Mike Bauman was a SP, and like Tyler Wells has been in and out of the pen/rotation in the bigs.
The Orioles could piece together a staff through the season (as they have the previous 2 years), and obviously they are good at it…but a proven MLB arm sure wouldn’t hurt.
What’s up with Seth Johnson? He was traded for 2 years ago when he needed TJ, spent last year recovering..and now… mystery arm!
They pretty much have to add someone now. Cade Povich needs more seasoning at AAA. Seth Johnson made it back to AA, but had a total of 4 starts. Mike Baumann can’t limit his walks. Maybe Chayce McDermott can break camp.
IMO, signing Lorenzen in the hopes that he and Wells perform better in a 6 man rotation is the smart move.
Yes, curious to see how Seth J does in ST. I’m hoping they do with him what they did with Tyler W. First year back from TJ surgery spent in bullpen, 2nd year as starter on a pitch count.
What I’m impressed with is that given his age that Dylan McDermott was not only able to give up acting but make it all the way to AAA as a Pitcher!
#4 Remaining top Free Agents:
-Snell wants elite money despite only being Elite in 2 of his 8 seasons. He’ll sign when he accepts appropriate compensation for probable production.
-Chapman wants elite compensation despite *checks notes* only a season and a half of elite production which last happened with the juiced ball in 2019. I’m not paying $30 million/year for you to bat 5th vs LHP and 8th vs RHP. Your defense even slipped last year. You were given a Gold Glove because someone has to win it. He’ll sign when he accepts appropriate compensation.
-Montgomery wants elite Ace money despite only two months of elite production. He is one of the best trade deadline acquisitions in MLB History. Congrats to him for that. That does not automatically earn one $200 million. He’ll sign when he accepts appropriate compensation.
-Bellinger played hurt for 2 seasons instead of spending 2/3 of one season healing. That was the opposite of JD Drew who refused to play unless he was better than 98%. Bellinger was playing at about 15%. He is also getting screwed because no one recognizes that his below average exit velocity numbers come with an elite contact rate. I’m not saying that any of that is just or right, I’m just saying that’s what it is. He’ll sign when he accepts appropriate compensation.
16 for 20: Your chat with Boras here out of earshot is like the scene in Seinfeld where the co-worker says “Look at George giving it to T-Bone”.
Heh. Love the scene
The remaining unsigned Boras clients haven’t signed with anyone because they aren’t very good. If they had played better, they would be signed by now. It’s like buying a Hummer. I am spending a lot of money for……….. nothing really
I like Bellinger a lot. I agree, Dave Roberts badly misused Bellinger in L A. A 3 or 4 year contract around 25 – 27m per, seems like his present value. Waiting for a 7 or 8 year deal at 25m +, most likely will never happen.
@16
After the last couple years of insanity, I’m honestly not sure what “appropriate compensation” is any longer. I think that maybe the reason it hasn’t been the total runaway train last off season was, is because the RSN uncertainty. Hoping my Orioles can negotiate a shorter but higher AAV deal for Monty given the ST news. And that Monty sees the wisdom in waiting a yr or two until the broadcast rights situation stabilizes some.
If Means is behind schedule, that pretty much necessitates an addition. The Orioles would be wise to sign Lorenzen and put him in a 6 man rotation. He and Wells wore down under an increased workload last season.
Or, if they are serious about winning, they need to stop slobbering over their prospects and trade a few for Cease or Luzardo. This is their time – your six man rotation would presumably include Lorenzen, Tyler Wells and Cole Irvin? Even Kremer’s career FIP is 4.54 and last year was 4.51, and he’d be 3? That doesn’t sound like a winning rotation to me.
Burnes
Rodriguez
Cease/Luzardo
Kremer
Irvin/Wells stopgap with Bradish (if no TJ) and/or Means coming back in May/June? Add that to their incredible lineup and they could win it all.
Or, they could hang on to Westburg, Mayo, Kjerstad etc. (without a spot in the lineup to play) and win “#1 prospect ranking!” every year.
You need to look at the numbers for Kramer, Irvin and for that matter, GRod, after the month of April. Even with that rough start, they finished 5th in team ERA. Getz has practically admitted Cease will be their opening day starter because he refuses to lower his price, down season be damned.
Smart teams don’t mortgage the farm.
*5th in the AL in team ERA. Sorry for the typo.
The “hurr durr, the Orioles just want to have the #1 ranked farm system/the best AAA team ever” jokes are tired and boring at this point.
The point (obviously) is to have a sustainable pipeline of talent that keeps the team in contention year in and year out.
I’ll leave the derogatory nature of your reply alone and talk content ;0). I was definitely making a point, so I get that it was a bit hyperbolic, but the truth is that they just traded 2 of their top 10, and STILL have the #1 ranked farm. They could trade Mayo and Kjerstad and a couple throw-ins for Cease and still be top 5 (could probably get Luzardo for that too, although he is worth more for sure).
The point I’ve made on this site about 25 times is that they will eventually HAVE to trade some of their field players. And their farm is amazing, but here’s their top 11 guys right now:
Holliday SS
Basallo C
Mayo 3B
Kjerstad OF
Cowser OF
Bradford OF
Beavers OF
McDermott RHP
Horvath 3B
Norby 2B
Tavera OF
Notice anything? Literally 1 pitcher. They are position player heavy and will need to trade some of that depth for pitching, at some point.
The other cool thing for them is that they actually allow the Orioles in the draft every year still! So – yes, they may trade away some strength now, but they have a history of drafting well even outside the top picks they had. Mayo and Ortiz were 4th rounders, Basallo was a signing. Beavers was 33rd pick (so even with a great record they can get this type of player.
When you have a window – go for it (especially with what I detailed above). Just my opinion.
You’re kind of tilting at windmills here, BH. Mike Elias has repeatedly traded from the system’s deep depth of quality position player prospects (Ortiz, Hernaiz, Prieto, etc.) to improve the MLB team while keeping the blue chip prospects (Holliday, Mayo, Basallo, etc.), which is generally the proper strategy for a small-mid market team with a good MLB team and loaded farm system. ‘Surplus” guys like Beavers and Horvath may very well end up as trade fodder ultimately like the other “surplus” guys that he already traded.
Also, the pitching pipeline isn’t nearly as barren as you are making it out to be- beyond McDermott there’s also Cade Povich, Seth Johnson, Luis De Leon, and more, plus Elias went pretty hard on pitching in last year’s draft and may do so again this year.
Agree with ya Big Hurt, “strike while the iron is hot”; especially when you have the resources available. 2 to the 3 years from now is exactly that; which in baseball years is a long time coming
And yes, not sure why Elias is so averse to drafting pitchers. Outside of some big body, big arm types taken last year, there’s not much he’s done draft wise. A possible exception may be Carter Baumler … if he could only stay healthy.
*Baumler*
Or, they could hang on to Westburg, Mayo, and Kjerstad and win with them for the next 5-6 years. If you give the farm for Cease, you win short term but not long, and if he pitches like last year, you don’t win either short or long.
Personally I don’t think any one player added at last year’s trade deadline would’ve changed the Division series. They ran into the hot team and after the long layoff to boot. I’d put more stock in the large sample size of 101 wins and not the small sample size of 3 games when making decisions that affect the next decade of your franchise.
During the Showalter years, they traded prospects to “go for it” and “worth it for a WS”. Eduardo Rodriguez, Josh Hader, ect. They would’ve looked good on last year’s team.
@ACC – The White Sox won 93 games just 2 years ago, and it was the beginning of their ‘window’. Now, they are a joke and one of the bottom 3 teams in the league. It’s easy to think ‘this will go on forever’, but when you have a shot, you have to go for it.
@big hurt
The white Sox didn’t go on forever in part because they had no pipeline. They also had the clunkiest group of guys out there that couldn’t play any defense.
The O’s have the players and the farm to restock. They’ll be more guys moved from the system but Elias doesn’t have to move anyone tomorrow.
Doesn’t have to be loss of prospects if the (soon) new ownership has any sway in things now (before league approval) as signing Montgomery to fill in for Bradish and moving Wells back into the rotation will get them there with their powder dry for an additional trade to bolster the bullpen or at the deadline.
Getz is dreaming about Cease. I’m tepid on him and would prefer several other options to trading with the White Sox. The Marlins’ recent deep pitching depth is thinned out quite a bit after Sandy’s TJ and trading Pablo to the Twinkies. The new PoBO seems less inclined to trade Luzardo as much as I’ve love to have him on the O’s.
This is a pivotal week or two in Baltimore/Sarasota. Hoping that Rubenstein (despite not having the reins yet) has some sway in some proactive moves that will help shore up an otherwise potent team that can make some noise this season and in October if they don’t let Angelos play his stupid reindeer games any longer.
No pitcher In baseball wore down over an increased workload. If anything it is more likely that reduced workloads led to pitcher’s injuries through a lack of endurance. The more they reduce pitcher workloads the more they get hurt. Teams shouldn’t have as many pitcher’s on the DL as they have onthe active roster.That said every July and August we see several teams like that. There might be an individual case of a guy or 2 who maybe was left out there longer than his arm was ready for. Still guys who pitch every 6th day for 4 or 5 innings aren’t getting enough work to develop endurance. If they break down that is usually the case. The arm is composed of muscles tendons and joints. All of which need regular use to increase stamina. A pitcher needs know how to pitch tired and learn what he can and can’t do. Underuse creates the false impression that you can throw the ball through a brick wall. It causes guys to attempt unsustainable motions. A small amount of fatigue forces a pitcher to use proper mechanics. Yes a dead arm can happen but improper mechanics are usually the culprit. Overuse can occur but you have to throw more than 200 innings a year to get there. Or as a reliever over 80 appearances a year for 3 to 5 years.
I wonder who Liam Hendriks signed with yesterday. I hope I didn’t miss something!
Just said he was close and a decision could come in the next couple days. For what it’s worth, they said that about Montgomery 2 weeks ago. Also, currently saying it about Merrifield. We shall see.
Naturally he’s headed to the Kiwi pixie chanteuse Lorde’s favourite team, the Royals, er White Sox!
lets get a lil deal done w lorenzen, O’s
Works for me, no need to panic and do something foolish right now.
The O’s should sign Montgomery.
Scott Boras????
Since he’s been in the league, Alec Bohm has produced a wRC+ of 99, so 1% less than league average hitter.
The average salary over the same period is about $4.6M, so he deserves 4.56M. He’s short changing himself and the team is being super cheap.
Winner will be the arbiter and neither party actually involved.
Bohm is improving, and is coming into his prime. He hit 20 homers and 97 rbi’s last year. This year, the power numbers should continue to increase. His fielding at 3rd base is greatly improved over his first few years.
Baseball salaries don’t exactly work like that. The typical pay is in the vicinity of minimum for the first couple of seasons until arbitration, then escalating based on players at your general production level and experience level. Likely the average for Bohm’s experience falls somewhere in the $3-4M range,
MLBTR expected 4.3M but Bohm took 4M. I don’t think it’s out of the realm of what I was suggesting for this specific case. Good for him.
The Orioles still have tons of minors depth to swing a trade with the White Sox or Miami. But there is also no need for them to panic.
The White Sox are asking a completely unreasonable return on a potential Cease trade. When it is closer to opening day, that demand will likely lower.
I think some kind of outside addition is necessary now, but that doesn’t mean they should run out and overpay for Cease or something like that. Ryu or Clevinger would be a perfectly adequate stopgap until the deadline when the status of Bradish and Means should be clearer.
Surprised not more talk of Beiber. Considering Chicago always expects the world in return.
Yeah, Bieber would also be a solid option and Cleveland would likely be much more realistic about their return than the White Sox have been thus far.
I only want Bieber if the cost is minimal. If they want a Jack Flaherty type deal—OK. Otherwise sign Lorenzen or ryu. Bieber’s numbers are all sliding the wrong way. I don’t want to pay for what he used to be.
He’s trending the wrong way but it isn’t catastrophic or anything yet, so I’d be willing to exceed the Flaherty deal but would also stay well below the Burnes deal.
I’d be down for seeing what Ryu has left in the tank, especially with Mt. Walltimore backing him up half of the time.
Like “Mt. Walltimore”. And whether it’s Ryu or someone else, to me, a southpaw makes sense.
I also like “Camden Canyon” as a nickname for LF at OPACY.
The soon to be T Rowe Price monument wall.
God I hope Rubenstein nixes that idea and stands firm on it remaining OPACY during his tenure.
lol I’m surprised cheap John didn’t do this years ago. Rubenstein prob won’t. He can collect that extra $ and have the cover of John Angelos being the one who made the deal.
too much collusion going on right now. Its really sad how Merrifield + many other great ball players can’t get a job. Also there’s no way MLB trots out these jerseys right?
Merrifield is 35 years old. He will sign with some team. The discrepancy, is likley over length of the contract. The Phillies are a good fit, but Whit won’t be guaranteed an everyday starting job. If Rojas doesn’t hit ( fairly likely), then Marsh moves back to center, and left field is open!!
I know how old he is. Its dumb. The guy performs and put up 1.5 war last year. Now the computers are saying oh we can’t sign him he’s 35. The computers are terrible and wrong. Do you think FG projections are used at Orioles and Rangers and Diamondbacks this past yr? They didn’t even have those teams making the playoffs and they still don’t even this yr preseason projecitons. JD Martinez put up .900 OPS last yr, but you are telling me he can’t get a job because he’s 36?
tg
“Do you think FG projections are used at Orioles and Rangers and Diamondbacks this past yr?”
I’m sure they weren’t. I’m equally sure some types of projections were
“The computers are terrible and wrong. ”
Let’s see if I can counter this well supported argument that you made.
:steps up to mic. Taps mic. Clears throat:
The computers provide valuable information to teams and fans.
“Drops mic. Exits stage:
“They didn’t even have those teams making the playoffs ”
Wrong. WRONG. WRONG! Non-understanding on your part.
Here are the pre-season ZiPS projections
blogs.fangraphs.com/the-official-hopefully-not-too…
Orioles 28% chance
Rangers 28%
DBacks 30%
Because I’m a nice guy, I’ll set you up for a chance to further embarrass yourself.
Suppose your local meteorologist says there is a 10% chance of rain tomorrow. You leave your umbrella at home, because you don’t understand probabilities, get drenched.
Who do you blame? The meteorologist or yourself?
Why?
holy hell….haha. Wow can’t believe you are defending zips when they had all 3 of those teams projected to finish 4th in their division out of 5 last yr. So no they did not have them making the playoffs. Thankfully they bumped the Rangers to 3rd, the Orioles still at 4th, and the Dbacks to 2nd in this years projections. By your argument the A’s had a 2.9% chance of making it last yr. That model isn’t even close.
g
Holy hell
“So no they did not have them making the playoffs.”
You don’t understand [anything]
They gave all of those teams a reasonable chance to make the playoffs
It’s your lack of understanding that’s the problem here. Not ZiPS
I heard somewhere Dean Kremer was behind schedule. Has anyone else heard that?
The MASN site has detailed analysis of the latest pitching crunch in Baltimore and has Kremer moved into the #3 spot in the rotation.
Just because the Fearsome Four are listed as the top free agents of 2024 doesn’t mean they are historically “TOP” free agents.
Imho that is a big disconnect, combined with the “missing” TV$ and the oft mentioned “obvious warts” that leaves these guys out in the cold for now..
For now.
cpdp
This is an excellent point