Few teams have been linked more prominently to Matt Chapman this offseason than the Cubs. Chicago’s recent move to re-sign Cody Bellinger on an $80MM guarantee makes that decidedly less likely. Chapman remains on the open market but the Bellinger deal pushed the Cubs to the edge of the luxury tax threshold.
There aren’t many other external options. Maybe there’s a trickle-down effect once Chapman does sign — the Giants may be the favorite for his services and could market J.D. Davis if they landed him — but the Cubs seem likelier to stick with their in-house candidates. President of baseball operations Jed Hoyer suggested at the Bellinger press conference that Chicago feels good about the roster as it stands, although he said the front office would consider opportunities that might present themselves.
Let’s run through the current options to take the hot corner:
While Madrigal doesn’t look the part of a third baseman, he narrowly led the team in playing time there last season. Previously a career-long second baseman, Madrigal handled himself well defensively. Statcast credited him with 10 runs above average in only 560 1/3 innings. The range he’d shown in the middle infield remained on display. Before he moved across the diamond, there was concern about his arm strength. That wasn’t much of an issue. Madrigal doesn’t have a great arm, but it’s not poor enough to prevent him from making most plays.
The bigger question is whether he hits enough to profile as a regular anywhere on the diamond. Madrigal’s very slight frame leads to minimal power projection. He has preternatural bat-to-ball skills but needs to hit a lot of singles to compensate for the lack of power and very low walk rates. Last season’s .263/.311/.352 batting line in 294 plate appearances more closely resembled utility production.
Wisdom has the polar opposite profile from Madrigal. He has massive raw power and has topped 20 homers in three straight seasons. He connected on 23 longballs in only 302 plate appearances a year ago. While Madrigal has perhaps the best pure contact ability of anyone in the majors, Wisdom swings and misses as much as any regular. He fanned in nearly 37% of his plate appearances last season, a rate he has matched over three-plus years in Chicago.
The end result was a .205/.289/.500 slash. Chicago valued his power production enough to keep him around on a $2.725MM arbitration contract. That’s not an exorbitant cost for a right-handed bench bat, a role that probably suits Wisdom better than playing regularly at third base. He has an above-average arm but limited range, leading to subpar defensive grades in each of the last two years.
Morel, 24, might have the best physical tools for the job. He has big power, blasting 26 homers in 107 games a year ago. Morel has hit 42 longballs over his first 854 MLB plate appearances. That comes with a lot of strikeouts, albeit not quite at Wisdom levels. He punched out 31% of the time last season, hitting .247/.313/.508 in 429 trips.
Even with a lot of whiffs, Morel is a valuable hitter. He has had a much harder time on the other side of the ball. Despite being a good athlete with top-of-the-scale arm strength, Morel has rated poorly in the outfield and in a very limited sample of third base work. Hoyer suggested early in the offseason the Cubs felt he’s best suited at second base, but Nico Hoerner has that position secure in Chicago.
That makes third base the logical choice. Manager Craig Counsell told reporters that they’ll play Morel primarily at the hot corner this spring (link via Meghan Montemurro of the Chicago Tribune). It’d be a major boost for the Cubs if he’s capable of handling the position. If he doesn’t show the necessary hands or instincts to play there regularly, they’d be left looking for ways to shoehorn his bat into the lineup.
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The job is likely to fall to someone from that trio early on, with Madrigal and Morel standing as the likeliest options. Miles Mastrobuoni picked up 24 starts there last season. He remains on the 40-man roster but projects for a depth role after hitting .241/.308/.301 through 145 plate appearances.
Trade acquisition Michael Busch logged a bit of third base action as the Dodgers experimented with ways to get him into the lineup. He’s not a particularly good defender anywhere, the biggest reason he never forced his way into everyday reps in Los Angeles. The Cubs are planning to give him more regular run at first base, although he could theoretically move across the diamond from time to time if Chicago moved Bellinger to first base to plug Pete Crow-Armstrong into center field.
The Cubs entered the 2023 season with a similar group as they have now. They addressed the position at the deadline with the Jeimer Candelario trade. That could be the path again — Davis and Brandon Drury are among the players who could move this summer — but there’s also a chance that last year’s first-round pick forces his way to Wrigley Field midseason.
Matt Shaw is already viewed as one of the sport’s most promising minor league hitters. The Maryland product shredded pro pitching at a .357/.400/.618 clip after the draft. He only has 15 games of Double-A experience, so he won’t be an option on Opening Day. As an advanced college bat, he could get to the big leagues by the end of his first full professional season. Shaw was a middle infielder with the Terps, but third base is the clearest path to an MLB debut in 2024.
It’s Morel’s job to lose.
This… And hopefully they’ll never be desperate enough to put Wisdom there.
No easy answers at 3B, but I think Morel will get first crack. As muddled as that picture is, it’s better than paying Chapman too much for too many years. Let the Giants make that mistake.
I like Morel, although I’m concerned about his glove. If he managed to get 120 starts at 3b this season, I think he’ll end up with about 30 errors. I’d rather he just accept the DH roll.
Morel is a weak 3B defender. Hope Morel starts at DH, but if Morel starts at 3B, Shaw will take over by mid-season.
Shaw hasn’t even played 3B yet. He has played very few minor league games. No reason to rush him. Let him develop as a player.
I very highly doubt that Shaw will come up this year especially learning a new position
If Morel isn’t at the hot corner on opening day, cubs front office is totally clueless. I wouldn’t put it past them as they had Morel in AAA to start last year, a move that made no sense at all and Morel proceded to make them look all the more foolish by his play.
@Moneyballer, I’m not so sure. Morel got worse as the season went on last year, strikes out a ton, and barely played 3rd. I think he rotates around a few positions a bit and DH’s some. I think they play matchups or play the hot bat between Wisdom, Busch and Madrigal until Shaw forces his way into the lineup.
Agreed, Morel was unplayable for his final two months in 2022 and he also had a pretty rough spring in 2023.
I say the depth chart right now is most likely Morel, Madrigal, Wisdom but there is a lot of moving parts on the Cubs that will eventually be sorted out.
Well stated Joe Kerr. Those are realistic plans and options. I would also add the Cubs are likely in a similar position regarding 1st Base. Match ups, who’s hot, who’s cold.
Actually Morel and Busch are going to be given every chance to succeed.
“Match ups” will be regulated to the DH position where Wisdom will get starts against soft tossers and Madrigal should get at bats against “tough” pitchers with high strike out numbers.
The only platoon options we need at the moment is left field because Happ has been awful against lefties the majority of his career and at this point you have to believe that this is who he is. Canario platoon assuming he makes the team.
Drascoo–you know I am kidding here—but Happ has played more games, much better than Morel at 3B and Happ has also been way better against lefties than Morel.
So–in reality the platoon should be Canario in left/Happ at 3B. If we are assuming Canario makes the team.
Again—you know I am kidding about moving Happ back to the infield. Just pointing out that Morel has been even more pathetic against lefties than Happ.
Has he though? (The answer is no)
Did you look before posting because in way shape or form is .711 (Happs career ops against lefties) best .755. Even best seasons Happ put up a .789 against Morels slightly more robust .893 which Morel hit last season.
Happ actually did great against LHP IN 2022, but yes for his career it’s dismal. Either way I think they gotta at least give him a chance to show he can do it again. Plus his glove manages to make some big plays out there even while I’ve never thought of him as a great defender. He’s doing something right to have the reputation enough especially to put that 2nd GG on his mantle.
It’s been 7 years. I think he’s been given a shot.
But he’s really only been an everyday player for the last two.
Cubs called up Morel a few weeks too late. Watched him in AAA last year and he was mashing.
If they think he might make 35+ errors, why would they run him out there on a regular basis? Has very little do with the FO. Counsell will decide how much he plays at 3B.
Franco–there is a clear path as to how this will end. Either magically six plus years of data is going to disappear and Morel all of a sudden becomes a valuable fielder (hope this is the case)—this is NOT a new position to him–we can easily surmise that he has taken thousands upon thousands of grounders there over the last six years.
If he becomes viable and can cut a 40 error pace down to the very low teens, I’m good. If not, DH him, play the best defensive guy out there (gulp, Madrigal) and sacrifice offensive pop and take it from there.
And certainly, it’s just not the error total that will add up….it will be the 6-10 high leverage pitches in an inning that will add up on Justin Steele, which will domino into the one or two extra outs or inning that he doesn’t get, that will add to the extra usage of the bullpen.
This front office has always valued defense and I don’t see that ultimately changing, but certainly have no problem using games in March to come up with a best guess and hopeful solution.
He doesn’t have to win a Gold Glove. And he’s just 24 which hardly closes the book on anything. He may bomb, or he may be passable. If he hits, then passable is just fine. And what are the alternatives? Madrigal with better D, a so so bat and no power? Wisdom, who’s a K machine and not much better than Morel defensively? Counsell is gonna give him the chance all spring and maybe into the season. Give em a minute. Who knows?
I wish Wisdom would end up on the A’s or Angels just so he could get 550+ PAs and hit 40 dingers
All those teams need to do is make an offer.
I bet he’d hit 50 staying warm with everyday ABs.
50 home runs with 300 strike outs.
I don’t really see a problem with those numbers if it’s on a bad team, ha. Let the man swing for the fences all he wants. Better than watching a cycle of AAAA guys hitting at the Mendoza line with no power.
Drasco, Two true outcomes lol
Morel offers the highest upside but his defense is concerning at the moment. I think it can improve but I doubt it’ll be significant in the short-term. If Madrigal could walk more I’d start him and have Morel Dh with occasional starts, but getting a player that hardly walks to start walking is a bigger challenge than teaching defense.
This is what Spring is for.
The ideal scenario for the Cubs would be Christopher Morel starting at 3B providing his defense is not a liability. This outcome allows Patrick Wisdom to be the Cubs primary right-handed bat versus left-handed pitching at DH and as the short side platoon option at 1B with Michael Busch. Wisdom also provides a bit of insurance at 3B and at the outfield corners.
All this leaves Nick Madrigal as the Cubs top infield insurance policy or perhaps as a solid centerpiece in a trade for veteran pitching depth. As an infield insurance policy, Madrigal becomes the Cubs top starting option in the event of an injury to 2B Nico Hoerner, SS Dansby Swanson or for Morel at 3B. Madrigal would assume the starting 2B job if either Hoerner or Swanson goes down. Madrigal’s best position defensively and with his bat is 2B. A Hoerner injury leaves Madrigal at the keystone. A Swanson injury still gives Madrigal the 2B job with Hoerner sliding over to SS. If Morel gets hurt or fails to provide adequate defense at the hot corner, Madrigal would replace him until Matt Shaw was deemed ready for prime time.
And it’s a good bet that Hoerner will be on the DL at least once and maybe twice this year.
We can also say the same about Nick Madrigal, my Cubs infield “insurance policy”. lol
This will be Madrigal’s fifth season in MLB. He’s spent considerable time on the IL in each of his first four dealing with hamstring, back and shoulder issues.
Madrigal is not a center piece in any conceivable trade scenario.
He certainly would be for a decent relief pitcher. Madrigal could also be an important part in any trade to secure a veteran starting pitcher, something the Cubs ought to consider with manager Craig Counsell already hinting at a 6-man rotation later this season. The Cubs currently have 4 veterans locked in at the top which would leave some young arms and veteran Drew Smyly vying for those last two spots. All that’s assuming the top four guys stay healthy which is a big assumption in today’s game.
There are a few teams in MLB that would get an instant upgrade at 2B by acquiring Madrigal. One of them plays on the other side of town in Chicago.
No. There are dozens of players of madrigals caliber scattered around the minor leagues and available on waiver claims. Nobody is trading FOR nicky
Sure thing, pal. Gold Glove caliber 2B who rarely strike out are just growing on trees in today’s whiff happy game.
If this was the case, why didn’t the Cubs simply non-tender Madrigal last December before agreeing on his $1,810,000 salary in his second year of arbitration eligibility? They could have just plucked some guy off of the waiver wire or promoted a younger player for the league minimum.
As a long time fan of MLB since the early 1960’s, I yearn for more throwback type players in today’s game of advanced analytics. Madrigal is exactly the kind of grunt I appreciated in the past, one every MLB had in spades.
If afforded an opportunity to start at 2B in MLB, I’d wager that Madrigal could fulfill his promise coming out of Oregon State University of being a perennial GG defender who could also contend for batting titles each year. He fit that offensive profile beginning his MLB career on the southside and fulfilled the defensive aspect since his trade to the Cubs.
I’d love to see Nicky get a chance to prove my faith in him with some team as a starting 2B, perhaps even back with the crosstown White Sox who have had a glaring hole at the position ever since that infamous Craig Kimball trade which landed Madrigal with the Cubs.
ASaps, in all due respect – Madrigal isn’t and never was a gold glove caliber defender at 2B. In fact if Nico or Swanson got hurt (I hope that doesn’t happen), I believe Morel would get the innings at 2B.
Madrigal got good hype coming out of college – but there are plenty of better defensive 2B in MLB.
Madrigal—fine defender. Gold Glove caliber—nope. He is a very valuable guy to have on any team…but, he has one glaring weakness other than lack of power. He gets hurt running and there is an awful lot of running involved in baseball.
He doesn’t crack his wrist getting hit by a pitch or gets concussed running into an outfielder—he gets hurt running to first on a grounder to short or turning the base on a hit to left.
He hasn’t had 300 plate appearances in a season yet.
Sorry, but the only thing Wisdom insures is a ton of Ks and lousy defense.
The Morel of the story is don’t rely on Wisdom.
Anyone but Wisdom.
Morel is a DH waiting to happen but they don’t have many good options. He and Wisdom strike out more than a geek at a bar.
The Cubs defense up the middle is solid. That bodes well for pitchers. What is the Cubs’ weakest link?
Weakest link is corner IF. Morel at 3B and Busch at 1B could be disastrous.
“You are the weakest link. Goodbye.”
And exactly, egrossen, how many times have you personally seen Morel play 3B and Busch play 1B?
Contrary to the self proclaimed “expert” opinions of the site writers, Busch is solid at first. His ability to handle first as well as he does is why the Dodgers thought he would be able to handle second and/or third.
No. They tried him elsewhere and eventually traded him because of Freddie freeman. Period.
Busch is a below average 1b at best.
Typical response. Guess you know more than the Dodger and Cubs scouts.
It’s an interesting take by you though. I guess the Dodger were like “hey this guy is absolutely awful at first base so let’s try him at even more defensive challenging positions”
I definitely don’t claim to be an expert. I have seen Morel play 3B, and it’s not pretty. Busch, I have not seen play 1B at all, but from what other sources/experts have said it’s been a long time since he’s played there so it’s an unknown. I hope it ends up being just fine, but I would say that is probably the weakest link in an otherwise solid defense.
If Wisdom struck out less and walked a little more he would literally be a right handed Kyle Schwarber.
Someone should tell him on an 0-2 count, you can bet the next pitch will be outside the strike zone. Are there no catchers on that team to impart that bit of knowledge?
I think bush will DH
I’d rather have a prime Ron Santo.
I’m starting to think the best option for the Cubs is PCA in CF, Bellinger at 1B, give Morel a shot to not be disastrous at 3B on defense and Michael Busch/Patrick Wisdom at DH. Madrigal is a jack of all trades and appears to be the super utility player that can fill in around the diamond as needed without having at bats every day.
If they had Swanson, Hoerner, and Bellinger on the infield, that is a top defense in baseball. Hopefully, Morel wouldn’t drag them down too much. An OF of Happ, PCA and Seiya would be really solid. Combined this team would have a top 5 defense to back the pitching staff.
I would save the salary on Chapman right now and see how the first half goes. If need be, the Cubs could shore up 3B at the trade deadline with Matt Shaw if he continues his trajectory or trade for a 3B rental like they did with Candelario last year.
Now that Belli is back in the mix for 2024, I am really excited for this year. Should be the Cubs’ division to lose. Hopefully they actually win it though.
PCA looks like he needs one more season at AAA to knock off a few bad habits – primarily laying off certain pitches. He’s only 21 years old. That was the purpose of bringing Belli back for at least this season.
Sign chapman to a 4 year 120 deal and defer 110 million till 2038
Interesting comparison of possible 3b starters this year:
Madrigal is suggested here by the writer as someone defensively capable of 3rd but lacking a bat and shouldn’t be starting as a result.
The Blue Jays had Matt Chapman, but swapped him out for Isiah Kiner-Falefa who is projected as their primary 3b this year.
IKF had an OPS+ of 78 last year and an 81 for his career.
Madrigal had an OPS+ of 79 last year and a 87 for his career.
Other teams competing for a playoff spot are willing to put that offense at 3rd in exchange for the goof D, so it shouldn’t preclude Madrigal from the job for the Cubs.
(Not saying that’s a good strategy, only that they wouldn’t be the only ones doing it)
I don’t think the Cubs need Chapman. They at least need to get a really good look at Morel there. Like constant reps–yes I’ve had this argument here before–but imo he hasn’t strung together enough games in a row to develop a real rhythm there. And besides for now if he falters Madrigal and Wisdom can handle it till the deadline.
Agreed Saltillo. Too many people overlook that Morel is still only 24 years old. Plus he’s been bounced around the diamond quite a bit.
An extended run at 3B with a solid set of middle infielders – say thru Memorial Day, isn’t going to be the end of the world.
Morel has really good range regardless as to where he plays but there are two knocks, first is obviously his arm but as you said, an extended look, experience, work can fix a lot of issues there. He really just needs to improve his footwork and learn which throws not to make.
His other knock which will haunt him from time to time is his hand injury. He has to make an effort to close his glove verse it being a natural reaction. I saw a couple times last season where it was obvious, he gloved the ball but dropped it. He made outs on both plays I saw though.
Honestly, this decision should be up to the new superstar manager. He seems a like the kind of manager that has a profile he likes in various places. I’m assuming whatever Craig likes in spring will start opening day.
I wouldn’t be against the Cubs signing Matt Chapman to a similarly structured swell-opt deal that Cody Bellinger just received. I’d guess his AAV would be much less than the $30MM Belli will garner in the first two years of his deal provided he doesn’t opt out after this season.
It’s also possible that Chapman might have to settle for a pillow contract considering his lack of suitors as we post. A one year pillow deal with the Cubs would be the ideal scenario for them with Matt Shaw knocking on the door. If Chapman performs up to his normal standards in 2024 a swell-opt deal would likely become a pillow contract anyway, similar to what could occur with Bellinger.
Cubs fans might recall the pillow contract that free agent Dexter Fowler settled for from the Cubs just ahead of the 2016 season. It helped net the northsiders their first World Series title in 108 years. Fowler provided the Cubs with a second season of stability in CF and a dynamic leadoff hitter atop their batting order. Chapman could give the Cubs another power bat in the middle of their lineup while also guaranteeing them MLB’s best defense on the left side of their infield. With Gold Glove winner Nico Hoerner in place at 2B and on days that Cody Bellinger plays 1B, the Cubs would also have MLB’s best overall infield defense.
Signing Chapman to man 3B hardly precludes Christopher Morel from being in the lineup. He could simply resume his 2023 roll of being their primary DH while also providing some insurance at their infield and outfield corners. Michael Busch would still be the Cubs primary 1B option, at least when facing RHP’s. Patrick Wisdom could be the Cubs top short-side platoon option at 1B versus southpaws. Cody Bellinger would primarily play CF in 2024, affording PCA some extra time in AAA to fine tune the offensive side of his game. Bellinger flanked by Ian Happ in LF and Seiya Suzuki in RF gives the Cubs a solid offensive OF along with one of the games better defenses on the grass.
All this would also be predicated on Tom Ricketts allowing Jed Hoyer to exceed the first CBT threshold in 2024. A division winner with a chance to repeat their 2016 magic in the postseason might be worth the risk for the team and its fans.
Wrong. “All this is predicated “ on when the strength of the Cubs minor league system, is expected TO DELIVER. That, is the elephant in the room. Not spending on frivolous ornaments.
Just because a guy hits from the left side of plate does not mean he has to sit against left handed pitchers.
Even if Busch is pull happy and struggles against same hand pitching, you don’t necessarily want to platoon him. Let him learn to stay closed and go up the middle. Gap to gap hitters have more success in Wrigley anyway.
Preternatural? Seems a bit sesquipedalian.
Chapman would be a mistake. We need to bring up some kids, and he’s not trending well. I wonder if they would consider Hoerner at 3B and put Morel at 2B, where they say he played well. I’d hate to mess with the middle IF, but it would solve a lot of problems. 3B for Morel would be there preference of course.
Convert Morel to first base.
Chapman would look great in a Tigers uniform….
But, it’ll never happen 🙁
Matt Chapman simply doesn’t fit in Detroit. The Tigers have Gio Urshela, Ryan Kreidler, Matt Vierling and Zach McKinstry to play 3B. They are high on players coming up in MiLB. Kreidler’s defense is so exceptional that he could win the job if he shows he could hit (I heard he has not).
If anything Chapman and Boras are not a good pairing