The Royals have acquired reliever John Schreiber from the Red Sox in exchange for right-handed pitching prospect David Sandlin, ESPN’s Jeff Passan reports (Twitter link). Kansas City placed Kyle Wright on the 60-day injured list to clear a 40-man roster spot.
Schreiber has a 27.4% strikeout rate over his 143 1/3 career innings in the majors, so missing bats has never been an issue for the 29-year-old. Between some home run issues and a lot of bad BABIP luck, however, Schreiber had only a 6.28 ERA over 28 2/3 innings with the Tigers in 2019-20, and he pitched in only a single MLB game with the Red Sox in 2021. The breakout came in 2022, as Schreiber had a 2.22 ERA over 65 relief innings for Boston while also delivering a 28.8% strikeout rate and an above-average 7.4% walk rate.
2023 was more of a challenge, in no small part because Schreiber spent time on the 60-day injured list due to a teres major strain in his right shoulder. Schreiber still posted a respectable 3.86 ERA over 46 2/3 innings and had strong strikeout and barrel rates, though his walk rate spiked up to an ungainly 12.3%. The sinker that was such a weapon for Schreiber the previous season was also less effective — batters had a .395 wOBA against his sinker in 2023, as opposed to a .245 wOBA in 2022.
An argument can certainly be made that the Red Sox might be selling high on Schreiber here, though it’s a risk Kansas City is willing to take for a reliever who is a few weeks shy of his 30th birthday and is arbitration-controlled through the 2026 season. Schreiber had a 2.12 ERA in 17 innings before his IL stint and a 4.85 ERA in 29 2/3 innings after returning, so the Royals might view the righty’s struggles as just a byproduct his injury layoff. Should Schreiber get back to his 2022 form, K.C. suddenly has a big strikeout arm to deploy in high-leverage situations.
Today’s trade continues a very busy offseason for Royals GM J.J. Picollo, who has brought quite a bit of veteran talent to Kansas City in an effort to quickly turn around a team that lost 106 games last season. Michael Wacha and Seth Lugo were the headline-grabbing rotation upgrades, but Will Smith, Chris Stratton, Nick Anderson, and now Schreiber have all joined a reworked bullpen. Schreiber is a bit more of a longer-term add given his years of arbitration control, yet the Royals have put themselves in a position to either directly benefit on the field if these pitchers perform well, or to perhaps benefit in terms of having some trade chips at the deadline if K.C. again falls short of contention.
From Boston’s perspective, moving a solid reliever from Schreiber might not be well received at first by Red Sox Nation, given how the fans have been vocally unimpressed with the team’s moves (or lack thereof) this offseason. Craig Breslow has made a lot of lateral moves in his first winter as the chief baseball officer, continuing the franchise’s recent bent towards adding younger talent rather than splurging on win-now stars.
Sandlin brings some intriguing potential to the table, as the righty (who turns 23 next week) has a 3.41 ERA and an outstanding 32.38% strikeout rate in 68 2/3 career minor league innings. An 11th-round pick for the Royals in the 2022 draft, Sandlin had his 2023 season cut short by a lat injury, and he made only two appearances at the high-A level before being sidelined.
ESPN’s Kiley McDaniel recently ranked Sandlin as the fifth-best prospect in the Royals’ farm system, while The Athletic’s Keith Law ranked the righty seventh. Baseball America was slightly more pessimistic in ranking Sandlin only 20th, but still felt Sandlin might develop into at least a good reliever based on his two primary pitches —- a high 90s fastball and a plus slider. If his changeup and curveball can also develop, Sandlin can perhaps stick in the rotation, though he’s still something of a wild card considering that he hasn’t yet pitched much in pro ball.
MassLive.com’s Christopher Smith reported earlier this week that the Sox were open to offers for not just Schreiber, but also Kenley Jansen and Chris Martin. With Schreiber now out the door, it remains to be seen if Boston is still willing to move either of Jansen or Martin, or if the Sox will stop short of a full-on bullpen overhaul. Jansen or Martin are both free agents after the season and will be prime trade candidates at the deadline if the Red Sox aren’t in contention, so there has been speculation that the Sox might look to increase their return (and cut some salary) by dealing at least one of the veteran relievers now.
I like what the Royals have done this offseason.
Lord – Agreed! Especially the signings of Wacha and Lugo. It’s good to see them serious about winning again, gearing up for the new revenue streams headed their way in the near future.
I have mixed feelings about this trade. Schreiber regressed quite a bit last year, if this means Martin starts the season with the Red Sox then I’m happy.
Fever – what this also means is that maybe Boston doesn’t expect to contend much for 2 more years.
They traded Schreiber for a 23 yr old arm in a-ball who at this point appears to have a likelihood of maybe becoming… Schreiber? He’s got a long way to go to become anything more than that.
The pitching pipeline is so bad that breslow is beginning stripping down the major league club for anything of value that will buy a prospect.
Maybe he surprises, odds predict he fizzles, but there’s a reason he was on the board in the 11th round.
GASox – I gotta believe Breslow thinks Schreiber’s 2022 season was an anomaly. Otherwise it doesn’t make sense trading a good pitcher with 3 years of control for a pitching prospect.
Speaking of the Red Sox, which if any of these would you throw a benjamin at? And I don’t mean Mike ;O)
I have Casas hitting the most HR’s in MLB and Duran with the most SB’s.
Honestly, I find it hard to believe in either.
Duran played 92 games as a fielder last year, which would be around 2/3 what I can see him getting on a Cora-led team after you deduct rest days and shuffling the OF alignment around.
Let’s dig a bit further, it’s 22/24 SB vs RHP and 2/2 vs LHP, but, 15% of his ABs were against LHP last year. That tells me he doesn’t have the confidence or aggressiveness yet to lead mlb. He’s too conservative, only running when he thinks it’s a sure thing. Given the swing and miss that is throughout the sox lineup, that’s lots of meat left on the table.
Compare that to, say, last years leader acuna, who was 59/70 vs rhp and 14/17 vs lhp, with about 20% of his ABs vs lhp. Besides the higher CS rate, what i see is lack of fear to go for it. 20% of his SB attempts were against lefties, matching his percentage of ABs. In other words, whether the pitcher faces towards or away, acuna is going if he wants to.
As for casas, he’ll play more games, but, I think he gets less protection in the lineup this year. That’s going to hurt. Devers isn’t handling his role well and underperformed by about 20 hrs last year from what his contract demands given lack of defense. Not that you want lefty after lefty anyways, Cora does that, both guys will hurt for it as relievers expose the match up. If it’s a good season, in the upper 30s for hr total isn’t out of the question, but I’d feel better making a more solid guess when we see who the opening day roster is, and, if anyone has made a jump in production out of the youngsters after ST.
He’s too conservative, only running when he thinks it’s a sure thing.
=============================
That’s as it should be. You need to be at about 75% to make stealing profitable. The idea of leading the league is SBs is not completely intuitive.
Joe, there’s such a thing as TOO safe. I’d rather see a guy at 32/38 stealing than 22/24, wouldn’t you? Especially in a strikeout prone lineup?
Duran leading the league in SBs isn’t about Duran as much as it about everyone else who will be stealing bases. A kid in KC should beat him easily. So many others are far more run crazy than Duran that he’ll be lucky to finish in the top 10.
Casas is in the same boat. Good power but Judge will lead the league in HRs.
Sorry Fever but I don’t see any way in the world that either could happen.
Redsox Nation is BOYCOTTING EVERYTHING REDSOX until they spend accordingly on ACEs.
Games or concessions at Fenway NO
Games or consessions at Fenway South No
Games or concessions at Salem Redsox No
Games on NESN No
Subscription to Boston Globe No
MLB Ticket streaming services No
Merchandise Definitely Not as at this point it’s embarrassing for Redsox Nation to wear them in competitive MLB. When you spend your time & money on a team Redsox Nation Built John Henry we will resume spending our time & money as well. Until then reap what you’ve sewn. Taking top dollars from us for little in return demonstrates your complete lack of respect for those fans & families who built this Redsox Nation & Team over 124 years and many generations. Good Day Sir
Guru I’m with you on all of it except MLB TV streaming. I’m prepared to boycott until Henry makes big changes, but that’s only the Red Sox. I love baseball too much to give it up entirely. I’ll just be using my subscription to watch more entertaining teams like the Diamondbacks, Rangers, and Braves.
That’s 10/14, which is on the cusp, so it is more situational. With two outs, yes. With -0- outs, no. At the top of the order, less likely. Just for Devers, 43% of his hits last year were XBH. The extra SB is not as important as the out.
Are we? I didn’t get that memo. Did Bob lose my email again?
Duran has had good splits against left-handed pitchers in the minors and did alright last season. It may be time to play him less selectively.
It may be time to play him less selectively.
======================
I agree completely. I’d play Duran, Abreu, and Grissom almost every day to see what we have. I’d sit all three in the really bad matchups, but I would also be doing that with a lot of players.
GASox – Thank you for the excellent analysis as always.
My thinking with Casas is Judge may have another injury and pitchers will pitch to Casas because most of the games won’t be competitive. Quite often a player’s breakout season is his second full one, hopefully he can pick up right where he left off last year. He hit 15 HR’s in his last 54 starts, so 45-50 HR is definitely doable.
As for Duran, I think there’s a good chance he gets traded this year. He is the Sox outfielder most in demand after his great season last year, and he’s several years older than Rafaela & Abreu. I think they will showcase him, playing him nearly every day. And if the Sox offense struggles, which it certainly could if O’Neill, Story, Rafaela, Grissom continue to slump, then Duran will be encouraged to generate more offense by being more aggressive on the basepaths. I think his confidence is still growing, and the odds of Acuna playing 159 games again are probably slim. When you play the way he does, you’re bound to have injuries over a 2-year period.
Also think of it this way, if the Sox lineup is weak or if the games aren’t close then will opposing pitchers even bother to keep Duran close to the bag? His SB’s would be meaningless without a guy like Turner in the lineup to bring him home. I think a lot will depend on who is batting behind Duran, you never know with Cora and he could continue to change the lineup every day.
Also let’s look at the main competition beyond Acuna which is Ruiz. The guy has a career .640 OPS and is a lousy defender, even if he gets lots of playing time I don’t see him getting on base all that much. After that everyone was below 55 steals last year. I’m fairly certain a healthy Duran will reach at least 55 bags this season, as long as the Sox analytics department doesn’t convince Breslow/Cora that SB’s are bad. Breslow is not as fond of analytics as Bloom, so hopefully that will translate to Duran being allowed to run more.
Sure both Casas and Duran are longshots, but it’s baseball where anything can happen and health is always a major factor. I do value your input, you convinced me to lower my wager to $60 each.
GASox – I think Joe is just being tunnel-visioned again.
It’s not black-and-white, percentage is not always indicative of one’s ability to steal bases. You have to look at each game situation.
If for instance a guy runs all the time when his team is down more than 5 runs, he’s probably gonna have a good percentage in those situations because the opponent just doesn’t care (kinda like defensive indifference, except making a half-hearted attempt to throw out the guy).
You’ve also got to take into consideration how good the catcher is, what kind of delivery the pitcher has, how good the pitcher’s control is, whether it’s a failed hit-and-run attempt, etc. .
TF – You’ve got to be talking about Witt, correct?
I’d say Duran’s .346 OBP is a huge advantage to Witt’s .319 OBP. And if the Sox offense is anemic, Duran will be given the green light a lot more often this year. I also think there’s a good chance he gets traded.
Can Judge stay healthy? He had only 37 HR last year, while Casas had 15 in his last 54 starts which translates to a 45-HR full season.
Dirty – You didn’t include the Dodgers? They will easily be the most-watched team this season.
I’d be curious to see a poll on whether fans are rooting for the Dodgers or against them.
Those who love Ohtani, Mookie and Freeman will be rooting for them.
Those who resent the ridiculous Dodgers payroll will be rooting against them.
Don’t really want be too pessimistic but it’s difficult not to be right now. I didn’t think we could do worse than Bloom. However, Breslow has been useless to this point. The team as currently constructed will be unwatchable. Little to no starpower. No high quality pitching to speak of. And their spending almost 200 million. THAT is not easy to do but that is what we’re left with. Pitiful.
I very much left out the Dodgers on purpose. I love Mookie so I can’t pretend I won’t watch them here or there when it’s convenient so I can see our old friend, but I hate LA and resent that they get to have all these nice things while the Sox continue to dump almost every player I’ve ever loved so I can’t say they’ll be appointment TV or that I’ll necessarily be rooting for them.
Dirty – I think a lot of fans feel the same as you, and will be rooting against the Dodgers.
I often think about the irony of the Nats winning the World Series the year after Harper left.
It would be great if somehow Trout led the Angels to a championship.
Fever Pitch Guy8 hours ago
GASox – I think Joe is just being tunnel-visioned again.
You have to look at each game situation.
========================
LOL!!!
So I said “it is more situational.”, so you basically said the same thing as I did word-for-word.
While I have no problem with you parroting what I said, attribution is in order. Unless you are the president of Harvard.
Yes, and don’t forget they signed Will Smith, which guarantees that they’re going to the WS.
Wil he slap Chris Rock at home plate ????Stay tuned for the next exciting adventures on Felix The Cat
If the Royals win the World Series this year, Will Smith will need to be immediately inducted into the HOF under some special ‘magic spell’ clause.
Rob – If the Royals win the World Series, I’m $7,500 richer.
What are the odds Vegas is giving?!
Rob – KC 15,000 along with the Pirates and Angels
ChiSox and Nats are 20,000
Rockies and A’s are 50,000
Unfortunately they will all be traded away at the trade deadline. This sudden spike in payrollnis due ONLY to the fact Shyster Sherm needs to putnin a good front for hos new stadium vote coming up in April.
Yawn…
no the Sox will just let them walk for nothing like the past few years. with the expanded playoff spots they will convince themselves they are still in the chase at the deadline given they are right in the mushy middle
Randy Red Sox43 mins ago
no the Sox will just let them walk for nothing
==============================
I’m pretty sure that Poke was referring to KC.
@Poke The spacebar is your friend
So the Royals traded their 5th best prospect for a guy they will trade away at the trade deadline? I doubt they get the other teams top 5 prospect in return.
You can’t focus on the guy being the 5th best prospect in a system ranked nearly the WORST in MLB, which, is what KC has.
So, no. But you might get another team’s 20th best prospect which is likely to become top 3 for KC afterwards
Another teams prospect might be BETTER than the #5 in their system. All systems aren’t equal
Doubtful. The Central division is putrid. It is unlikely they are out of contention by the deadline. Aside from that they have several years control on many of these pickups. 2025 or 2026 appear to be the years targeted for real contention. This year if they win the Central they still probably aren’t capable of winning it all.
They aren’t competing in the next few years probably and the team control onky adds value when dealing at the deadline. Deadline deals are exactly why the Royals hit the clearance rack. They don’t have anything else to deal.
Poke – They are building a new stadium for hos?
That I look forward to seeing!
I don’t see how this makes sense for the Royals. They’re going to be a longshot to make the playoffs no matter what they do before April, and Sandlin looks like he has a fair chance to start.
I’ve honestly hated their offseason. They’ve paid a ton of vets and most would not be starting for a playoff-caliber team. If you want to bankroll success, sign players who are actually good, not a grab bag of fringe guys. And also don’t push your chips in when you’re highly unlikely to make the playoffs.
I’d hate to think these low end signings would be considered putting all their chip in. Lugo and Wacha would be 4-5 starter candidates on most teams.
ZiPS projects Lugo and Wacha to put up 2.2 fWAR *combined* this year, despite making $31 million combined. That would be an atrocious investment. Wacha in particular has been a regression candidate for a while, as his peripherals for much of 2022 and 2023 were really ugly.
For all of the hate the Sox rotation has been getting, I would rather all of Bello, Giolito, Crawford, Pivetta, and Whitlock over Wacha and Lugo.
The Royals are a small market team who typically does not spend just for a couple extra wins in a year they don’t expect to compete. Lugo and Wacha both go multi-year deals too. It’s kind of embarrassing.
The Royals also play in a much weaker division. It’s possible they’re closer to 1st place in the Central than the Red Sox are in the East. In fact, likely.
stymee – Why do you always discredit pitchers the Red Sox reject? You know how ridiculous you sound calling them a #4 or 5 pitcher.
Over the past two seasons Wacha is 25-6 with a 3.27 ERA and 1.139 WHIP. When healthy he wins games, period.
Lugo is a little different, he was converted to full-time starter last year. Still since 2018 he has a 3.35 ERA and 1.142 WHIP.
Name the teams that have at least 3 SP’s with better numbers over the past 2-6 seasons.
I’ll even help you out, the Red Sox aren’t one of those imaginary teams you stated.
Top 4 projected Red Sox starters:
Giolito 4.89 ERA since 2022
Bello 4.37 career ERA
Crawford 4.74 career ERA
Pivetta 4.86 career ERA
Rob – I’d say any team other than Chicago can win the AL Central. In fact all of the other 4 teams have Vegas odds of 1,000 or less.
— Fever Pitch, it’s consistently a surprisingly weak division. It’s there for the taking, so I’m perplexed that one team hasn’t tried to become the Astros of the AL Central and stomp on everyone else. Cleveland always seems to get high marks on their pitching development, and are noted as a well-run organization, but they have made a number of bad trades on the offensive side, which is an area where they need help. I’d almost call them catastrophic at this stage. They don’t seem to be able to assess their own hitters.
I also find that building a team to the revenue sharing payroll, and not an inch further, has limited them. It’s one of the problems I have with the current revenue-sharing structure. Beyond Cleveland, it allows Oakland to play the games they do without any consequences. The Rays, which are an extremely well-run team, have built a system almost entirely around revenue sharing, not particularly worrying about attendance. How can MLB grow when multiple teams no longer care about attendance? You know what happens when you don’t care about attendance? You don’t get attendance!
Before this infusion of veteran players, there was a story here suggesting talks with Witt on an extension were stale. Maybe his agent told the Royals that if they wanted to extend his client, show us some kind of commitment to improving the club?
C Yards – I think it’s something else. Back around the royals last WS window, revenue and payroll were both substantially higher, not even accounting for inflation and the expected revenue increases you’d associate with it.
In a lower revenue club, CBT is all but irrelevant – they won’t hit the numbers anyways, opposite of high revenue clubs who normally don’t care about yearly salary and instead worry about CBT.
Why I go there is the early years of Witt’s deal are cheaper payroll, regardless of cbt hit.
If they invest in the team against a weak division NOW, and hopefully get a playoff revenue bump and increased attendance due to contention, then it makes it easier to keep spending as the extension ramps up in salary.
GASox – With a new stadium and surrounding entertainment district on the way, Royals won’t be a low revenue team for much longer. They will be at least middle-of-the-pack.
Fever – I figure the Royals will be lucky to see a stadium by 1/3 of the way through Witt’s extension, and, a district by 1/2 way through. Just comparing it to how I watched the Battery get built when I lived in the county.
Besides that, from what I read, it sounds like the site the royals unveiled out of nowhere has a LOT of local opposition. A different part of town a little ways over tried to encourage them to come in. Instead, KC picked a historic area of town filled with unique small businesses nearly unanimously opposed, PLUS a historic church that JUST completed a big expansion to its facilities.
If you don’t think some of those entities will fight tooth and nail and force condemnation, which they will fight over the public benefit for it, tying things up in court a couple years at least over valuation if not the right to do it, you’ve been losing too much sleep.
If they get their way they will eventually see that revenue bump. But this trend of dumping perfectly good stadiums in sports really needs to slow down.
GASox – I totally agree with you on dumping perfectly good stadiums, but you really think Kauffman is perfectly good? I’ve never been there, but it’s 51 years old and from everything I’ve seen it’s not a very appealing place to take in a game.
Most importantly, they need a retractable roof. The summer heat there is brutal, comparable to Texas.
Notstarboard. Trade chips to help revamp the lousy system at the deadline.
Yes, they do. But there is no point in giving up a prospect for a trade chip who, if you’re lucky, will fetch a similar prospect in return.
If KC wants trade chips to farm prospects, they should sign bounceback candidates to one year deals, not trade prospects.
Breslow is going with the new theory of get rid of all you experienced pitchers, don’t have a full rotation and throw a ton of kids. That should be a winning formula.
We’re unlikely to contend this year. Sandlin is a pretty good prospect to nab for a non-dominant middle reliever. This is a good move
Exactly. Sanding also isn’t on the 40-man roster yet so that opens a roster spot for Boston for a future move. And it’s probably a good time to sell high on Schreiber.
Baseball America opinion of David Sandlin:
“While he has a four-pitch mix, Sandlin relies most heavily on the mid-90s fastball that touches 97 mph and has above-average ride. Sandlin’s preferred secondary is a mid-80s slider with horizontal break and high spin rates. Sandlin’s 25.5 K-BB% ranked 11th among minor league starters with at least 50 innings.”
roiste – Last year Schreiber had control issues, otherwise his K-rate was identical to 2022 when he was absolutely dominant (2.22 ERA and 0.985 WHIP).
It’s a little concerning the Sox gave up on him with 3 years of team control remaining. I thought Breslow, Bailey etc were gonna fix all the Sox pitchers?
Did he have control issues though? His strike zone rate actually increased a bit from 2022 to 2023. What changed is hitters chased his pitches a lot less (33% chase rate in 2022, 28% chase rate in 2023). Seems to me like the league figured him out, and Breslow is selling high.
I’m not sure why you thought that, that’s not how any pitching program works. Part of the gig is evaluating which guys you can fix and which guys you can’t.
I think he is saying control issues because his walk rate went from 7% in 60+ innings in 22 to 12% in 40+ innings in 23. Seems like control went down year over year
roiste – You have a valid point on the chase rate, thank you for bringing that up.
As for fixing, how would the Big Three have evaluated Schreiber when none of them saw him pitch last year? I wouldn’t think they’d trade him based on just video and older reports from Bush.
Hopefully it’s a matter of Breslow being really high on Sandlin.
Which was the earlier commenter’s point. He is saying Schreiber had control issues both seasons. His walk rates went up the 2nd year because hitters stopped chasing his pitches that were out of the zone.
cuff – Here’s the flaw with that viewpoint: If hitters stopped chasing his pitches that were out of the zone, why did his K/9 rate stay exactly the same last year.
If they stopped chasing, his K rate should have gone down.
It didn’t.
Considering this kids maybe a top 10 prospect in the KC system that system is completely trash they have maybe one player in the top 100 plus the kids already 23 and hasn’t pitched past A ball should tell u all u need to know
mcase – Exactly! Organization prospect rankings are absolutely useless, a Top Ten organizational ranking means nothing if the organization’s farm system is crap.
Always go by MLB Top 100 rankings instead.
I have to agree, Sandlin is built like Roger Clemens before the roids. Lots of promise and the Sox seem to be moving players up through their minors faster now.
Goose..you actually think they plan to win?..
Great move by Breslow. Start researching. Google is a phenomenal research engine
I agree Rick this kid has good stuff 12 k’s in the college World Series semi’s. Highlights on YouTube and he pitches with an edge I like the move
you are missing what he is doing. REBUILDING !
just look back at what he has done, and see. Grissom, young talent, Gioleto as temp hold over for Sale. Acquired all young talent besides Giolitto. I think Jensen go’s at some point, and wouldn’t be suprised if he moves Duran, at the right price. SD is after him. If he gets a nice return for Duran, he’s gone Just my thoughts
rich – If so, how much longer will this “rebuilding” continue?
Bloom was *supposedly* rebuilding the past 4 years.
How long should it take for the team with the 3rd-highest revenue in MLB to rebuild?
Buying prospects ain’t that difficult when you’ve got the money to spend, which the Sox obviously do.
Fever, FSG has money to spend. BOS does not, as they won’t let Breslow do it.
Bloom was supposedly rebuilding for 4 years, correct. But he botched the job so badly, there’s no choice but to start over.
It’s like building a house on a bad foundation, or rebuilding an engine with improperly honing the cylinders. You’ve got to rip it apart again because the outcome was junk.
GA we don’t even know if that’s true. Outside of the terrible Mookie Betts trade, none of Bloom’s prospects have graduated yet. We have no idea if they’re any good or not.
Dirtywater – after 4 years of tanking, which is unequivocally what bloom was trying to do, most teams are entering contention with strong prospect pipelines.
The pitching pipeline is a wreck, and, more guys bloom brought in have busted than made it. Remember, blooms choice in trades, like downs, like Wong, have to be included in the calculus – not just intl signings and draft picks, although, some of those have begun to fizzle or developed much more slowly than their draft slot demanded.
GASoxFan14 hours ago
Dirtywater – after 4 years of tanking, which is unequivocally what bloom was trying to do
========================
You forgot the fact that WE AREN”T TANKING.
We’ve played .498 over the past four years. While that’s not good, it isn’t close to what I consider tanking. I think most people would consier tanking a team that is winning 60, not 81.
GASox – I said the Sox HAVE the money to spend. I didn’t say they are WILLING to spend it ;O)
My point was the Sox can’t use the “rebuilding” excuse for another 4-5 years, but it seems like they are trying and some people have bought it.
Realistically a high-revenue team should be able to rebuild within 2 years max. All you gotta do is trade your good players for prospects, then replace the traded players via free agency. Or take on a bad contract and have it come with prospects, like Bloom did with JBJ. Or trade a player and send a lot of money with him, getting prospects in return (kinda like what Breslow did with Sale).
As for ripping apart, it depends when you plan to contend again and how long the contracts are.
GASox – Other than Winck, Bloom’s veteran-for-prospect trades have been putrid. And I’m going all the way back to when he traded Mitch Moreland and Kevin Pillar in 2020. Pillar was having a very solid season and Mitch was on fire at the time (1.177 OPS). I do think Abreu could be the anomaly.
And in all fairness to Bloom, the minors were shut down in 2020 so everyone in the Sox farm system lost a year of development.
Joe, open your eyes.
If bloom wasn’t tanking and seeking high draft picks, how do you explain his mismanagement of player contracts and complete neglect of the mlb club roster?
He was bad at it like everything else, but, still did it
If bloom wasn’t tanking and seeking high draft picks,
======================
It is not tanking if you are a .500 team and picking #15 on average. That would mean half the league is tanking.
Don’t get me wrong, I’m not here to carry water for Bloom whatsoever. I think his tenure was an unmitigated disaster, I would’ve fired him two years ago. But I disagree with the assessment that they were tanking.
The two most prominent tank jobs – Houston’s and Chicago’s, entailed 4 plus years of fielding some of the worst teams ever seen in MLB history, rosters shamelessly barren of any kind of discernable big league talent or the payroll obligations that come with it.
Boston certainly has not been doing anything to be confused with “trying”, but it’s also not anything resembling a true tank job either. Most accurate would be to say they were making half-assed attempts to do both at the same time. A tanking team would have traded Martinez, Bogaerts, Eovaldi, and anything else that wasn’t nailed down at the trade deadline in 2022. A team that was serious about contending would’ve kept Xander Bogaerts, but if they were serious about tanking they would’ve replaced him with Yu Chang, not Trevor Story. Nor would a tanking team sign Yoshida. One might have signed a bunch of relievers and guys like Paxton, Turner, and Duvall hoping they’d have strong seasons and turn into trade chips, but then they would’ve actually traded them.
This team is rudderless flotsam going in no particular direction, and while Bloom’s ineptitude certainly played a part in that, ultimately that comes down from the top. Getting the constant mixed signals from ownership, it’s hard not to sympathize a little bit for the front office. They always talk a big game about we’re going to be involved aggressively in the talent market which feeds into high expectations, but then constantly turn around and handcuff them with mandates to be cheap and punt the competitive timeline into the future. Let’s go back to the Mookie trade. A main part of the “return” was supposed to be a financial reset, right? And yet because of this inconsistent dual mandate to try and somehow compete and punt at the same time, they still haven’t gotten the CBT payroll figure under $207 million since trading Betts. They even paid the CBT again in 2022 for a 78 win team!
This move makes sense because the Sox had a ton of MLB-caliber right-handed relievers on their 40-man roster. Simultaneously they have very few legit SP prospects, so this addresses an area of weakness by trading from an area of strength. The drop from a guy like Schreiber to a guy like Campbell or Weissert is probably miniscule, and meanwhile Sandlin has a chance to be a starter in a few years.
The team is nearly done rebuilding, and this is a move they would have done 10 times out of 10 regardless of playoff window given the state of their pen and SP prospects.
The drop from a guy like Schreiber to a guy like Campbell or Weissert is probably miniscule,
======================
100% spot on. The BP was:
Jansen
Martin
Schreiber
Bernardino
Campbell
Weissert
And some combination of:
Pivetta
Whitlock
Houck
Winc
Slaten
Mata
If we don’t acquire another SP, then two of them make the rotation. That’ll bring it down to 10. So we will still be 2 over the limit.
Joe: Mata and Slaten are the biggest question marks as they can’t be optioned. BTW, this looks like a good article. Haven’t read it yet.
news.soxprospects.com/2024/02/how-red-sox-draft-st…
I did. It really answers the question. Thanks for the link.
I read that a few days back. It’s very well detailed, nut only tells us what we already know-the RS haven’t drafted pitching in a while.
And that’s not necessarily a negative. It’s possible that drafting US pitching has a lower return than drafting hitting.
IRT to Mata and Slaten, to me. they are part of the trade. If we keep Schreiber, then theoretically, it means that we don’t keep Mata. So it is really Mata + Sandlin for Schreiber.
Fallacy in logic. If you really want Mata on the opening day roster and had a crunch no reason schreiber and his 3 options couldn’t have opened in AAA and waited for the inevitable injuries to start.
The players would not like it at all. Plus, we have options on half the roster. The idea is to add talent without necessarily weakening the team.
Joe – As of today we don’t have any certainty in many aspects of this roster. First, we have Cora who is clueless so don’t use logic when picking the best 26 players. Find out who he likes because that’s all that matters.
Pitching staff certainties:
SP1 – Giolito (He will get killed by SP1 pitchers facing him)
SP2 – Bello (He’s more of a SP3 so he’ll be over matched)
SP3 – Pivetta (Lots of Ks and inconsistency)
SP4 – Crawford (Could match up well with SP4s)
SP5 – Houck (Should be SP4 but not liked by Cora)
SP6 – Whitlock (Could take SP5 since Cora likes him)
CL – Jansen
RH Relievers – Martin, Winckowski
LF Relievers – Bernardino?
Open spots include three more players chosen from:
RH Relievers – Criswell, Slaten, Mata, Z Kelly
LF Relievers – Murrphy
It’s not clear if Winckowski will be building up his stamina to be a starter but if he is used that way by Cora then we have ONE legit reliever in the bullpen other than Kenley Jansen.
With the crap SP1 of Giolito, an over matched SP2 in Bello, an inconsistent SP3 in Pivetta there should be GREAT needs for bullpen innings. Having Martin and Jansen as the only legit relievers since Winckowski could be moved into a starter role, you have to think the ball club will need to score a dozen runs a game to win.
The offense isn’t built to score a dozen runs a game. The team lost its most effective hitter in Turner and it’s counting on Devers rebounding from a bad year, Duran and Casas repeating their 2023 performances and Yoshida improving so he can say he’s earned his inflated $18MM a year salary.
The more I write the more this team seems like a 65 win team not a 75 win team. No pitching to go with no hitting. That’s a bad combination Cotton!!!
Here is the problem NONE of you are addressing that like the move.
Ownership said ‘Full Throttle’ and dd NOTHING to improve the team, even though we are WELL under the cap.
They didn’t change their tune and say they are still rebuilding and cut ticket prices.
This moves just picks up an A ball player who was the #7 prospect in an mediocre farm system.
The Red Sox are acting like the Tampa Bay Rays, while they have insane ticket prices and huge revenue but refuse to hire competent scouts, management or sign free agents.
The early 90’s Sox stunk but at least least they tried to improve the team even if they were incompetent. This ownership talks out of one side of their mouth, doesn’t spend a dime and then goes and spends on a soccer and NHL team and now is trying to get an NBA team. They don’t give TWO damns about the baseball team anymore.
Well said Goose.
My hope is the NBA and NFL pay attention to what has gone on and give FSG a permanent cold shoulder.
Why? Because Henry has dominated MLB since he bought the team? Because he’s won too many World Series?
GASox – Agreed, as I’m sure MLB is now regretting the bag job they orchestrated with the sale of the Red Sox to Henry.
But unfortunately the NBA will not keep LeBron from becoming an owner. They want him as an owner.
Joe – You are very naive if you don’t realize MLB has to be unhappy with John Henry running the Red Sox into the ground.
The Red Sox are a marquee franchise, MLB is stronger when the Red Sox are competitive and have star players who are entertaining. They were half of the greatest rivalry in all sports. The Yankees have quickly reloaded, but with the Red Sox no longer caring about winning there is no longer that great rivalry.
And how do you think MLB feels about profits from the Red Sox being funneled off to non-baseball franchises.
Fever Pitch Guy6 hours ago
The Red Sox are a marquee franchise,
================================
And how did we become a marquee franchise. Oh yeah, by winning a WS every 5 years.
Goose – Every Red Sox team in my lifetime, including the early 90’s, had at least a couple superstars.
You had the 70’s with Fisk, Lynn, Rice, Tiant
You had the 80’s with Clemens, Boggs, Rice and Dewey
You had the 90’s with Clemens, Nomar and Mo (+2 years Canseco)
You had the 00’s with Pedro, Manny, Ortiz, Schilling, Damon etc
You had the 10’s with Pedey, Mookie, Ortiz, JDM
This year is the first time I can remember the Sox starting a season without any superstars.
Fever, bloom chose to pay story, Yoshida, and Devers as if they were superstars… that sort of counts doesn’t it?
Doesn’t move the needle for me as a Sox fan either way
This move wasnt suppose to. They traded a middle reliever.
Sox are clearly just freeing up a spot on the 40 man so they can sign a Trevor Bauer 😉
Ketch – And Urias
ketch – At least Bauer is very familiar with “Full Throttle” ;O)
While Bauer was completely railroaded, and the MLB should be embarrassed by their reaction, that was fracking funny.
and that’s ok.
Oh they just clearing a roster spot for Blake Snell. All that has to happen is Blake has to accept their 7 year $7 million offer. Only problem is Boras thinks it’s a joke.
I know it’s redundant, but it fits: FULL THROTTLE.
shut up.
“Throttle” also means “choke”
Kinda close in carburation, but not really
This essentially doesn’t affect the 2024 team while adding an interesting arm who could help in future seasons. It also opens up a 40-man slot, which means that they wouldn’t need to risk losing somebody if they make a more meaningful signing.
they wouldn’t need to risk losing somebody if they make a more meaningful signing.
=============================
Correct. And they are also probably thinking they want both Mata and Slaten to get a shot.
I expect another RP to get traded.
Prediction is a fool’s game, but I’m going to suggest Slaten sticks to fulfill the Rule 5 requirement, Mata probably doesn’t last through ST and is DFA’ed, and Sox leadership is unperturbed by whatever happens to him because they think they have three solid pen pieces coming from within: Luis Guerrero in 2024, and Troye and Hoppe in 2025, and that’s without counting the competition from minors starters who will inevitably be seen as pen pieces. And Zach Penrod will be the LH starter in the bigs by June 2024.
Only full throttle the Red Sox are doing is like Tatis on a motorcycle.
Nobody saw this coming. The Royals have decided that enough is enough.
70 wins but some decent returns in trades.
This seem like another full throttle move by the Red Sox right?
Good move for boston actually based on thier plans for 2024
you mean the plans to lose and be an embarrassment?
The they are going full throttle, just with a transmission in reverse.
I understand the full throttle comment. It’s like being on a riding lawnmower wide open( full speed ) on the freeway . Everyone else is in a car passing you.
This makes no sense for Boston. It’s beyond frustrating being a fan these last few years. The previous and current FO baffles me…
It makes a lot of sense for the Sox. Their bullpen was already getting crowded with right handed relievers with Jansen, Martin, Campbell, and whichever 2 from the Whitlock, Houck and Winckowski trio don’t make the rotation. They also have Justin Slaten, the rule 5 pick they acquired from the Mets they’re going to try and carry. They got more than most expected out of Schreiber to this point. Hanging onto him until he inevitably backslides does nothing for them.
Ken – If this trade happened because they are definitely keeping Martin, then fine. If they also trade Martin and Jansen, then their BP will be just as big a question mark as their starting rotation.
Trading both Martin *and* Jansen is a big “if”. The bullpen still would look solid to me if Martin *or* Jansen were traded, and it looks like an actual strength right now even without Schreiber. I don’t think losing Schreiber is likely to hurt the bullpen this year at all.
not – The bullpen looks like a strength right now if it includes Martin, Houck, Jansen and Whitlock. We simply don’t know if ANY of them will be in the Sox pen.
If the Sox sign Monty or Snell, it will automatically make the pen better. if they don’t, and any of the projected SP’s gets injured or sucks, then you’re looking at Whit and/or Houck in the starting rotation.
And going into the season with Bernardino as your only legit LHR is kinda scary.
You guys need to give up on the Sox signing either Snell or Montgomery. Signing either for the money they are seeking would be a stupid move for the Sox. Snell has won 20 games twice and CY Youngs to go with it, in between he’s basically a .500 pitcher. Montgomery got lucky with the Rangers last year. and caught fire in the WS. Had pass on both.
Montgomery got lucky with the Rangers last year.
========================
Montgomery is the most consistent pitcher in baseball. He wasn’t a one-year phenom. When is the last time he had a FIP > 4.22?
As of right now, SoxProspects.com projects the following for the pen:
RH Kenley Jansen
RH Chris Martin
RH Garrett Whitlock
LH Brennan Bernardino
RH Justin Slaten
RH Bryan Mata
RH Isaiah Campbell
LH Chris Murphy
This is with Houck in the rotation and Winckowski, Weissert, Kelly, Criswell, and others in AAA.
I’m not worried about the LHP situation. Murphy was solid last year as a multi-inning guy: 3.71 xERA over 47.2 IP. Jacques was sneaky good at generating grounders and just got screwed by the Sox atrocious infield defense: 3.98 xERA over 26.2 IP. Luetge was bad last year, and he’s getting up there in years, but he was worth 2.3 fWAR over 129.2 IP from 2021-2022, which is obviously great for a reliever. Not a bad depth option to have.
And LOOGYs are of course no longer allowed, so the consequences of not having two solid lefties is lower nowadays than it was a few years ago.
notstarboard – So for the record, when Soto comes up for the Yankees, or Rutschman for Orioles, or Alvarez for Houston you are confident with Murphy and Bernardino to get the big out late in the game? I’m not. I don’t think many others are.
Quote any stats or metric estimates you want, the two lefties suck compared to what other teams have that are competitive.
Want to blame the infield? Then get Devers to DH. He has more misplays (errors and other balls not counted as errors that allow a base runner on a ball that should have been caught and an out made) than the rest of the team!!! Yes, he is documented as one of the worst 3Bs since the dead ball era when errors were triple what they are today.
SoxProspects.com is also a weak choice when evaluating Sox players. They are heavily influenced by the front office. They come with a bias similar to the one Cora has towards his players. Facts simply don’t matter. The “chosen” prospects are hyped like Swihart and the non chosen ones are not like Mookie Betts.
This premise is ridiculous lol. I wouldn’t feel confident with any reliever in baseball against those guys with the game on the line, even if they were a tough lefty; their wRC+ against lefties last year ranged from 130 to 153. I feel very comfortable with Murphy or Bernardino in a major league bullpen, though.
“Provide whatever evidence you would like but I will continue to ignore you and say whatever the heck I feel like without any justification of my own”. This is going to be my last reply to any of your posts. There is no point in making good faith arguments to someone unwilling to listen.
Devers has substantially more value at 3B than DH, moving him to DH would require putting Yoshida in LF and you’re on the record being frustrated we aren’t starting three kids in the outfield, and Devers was far from the main problem last year. That would be Hernandez at SS, and that hole is already filled. “He is documented as one of the worst 3Bs since the dead ball era” – Source, Trust Me Bro.
SoxProspects.com is completely independent of the Red Sox organization and are the gold standard for third-party evaluations of the Sox farm. You clearly have no idea that prospects are inherently high variance. If it were so obvious how guys would develop you would never see draft busts unrelated to injury, but they are incredibly common, even in the first round… The irony of you saying “facts simply don’t matter [to them]” when you literally two paragraphs ago stated that you don’t care about evidence and will just believe what you want.
Yeah, trading Schrieber for someone who immediately slots in as a top ten prospect is so dumb.
Icon : KC has a terrible farm system. So we get there # 5 guy and he is in are top. That isn’t saying much about the strength of the Sox farm .
Icon – To be fair he slotted in at 19 for Boston and he has a lot of slugs in front of him so he must really suck. Now that the DD draft picks are no longer prospects the farm system is very weak. You can only live so long on hype for guys like Mayer and Yorke. Anthony and Teel are the only REAL prospects that have true value and both could fall from their lofty positions with a bad 2024. Mayer should have been poised to start in 2024 based on his draft spot and year. Instead, he’s coming off a bad year when he was injured and failed at AA. In the last decade Boston has had several players in the MLB contributing by their 21 year old season and he gets the benefit of the Dec birth date that makes him older than 50% of the guys his age.
Schreiber was a league average reliever who got traded for a guy who projects to be league average in several years. That sounds incredibly familiar. Oh yeah, it’s nearly every transaction performed by Bloom.
No point in caring about this insignificant transaction EXCEPT that it happened rather than a SIGNIFICANT ADD by Breslow.
i agree this a good trade Cabanaboy. I have said all along this team needs to add YOUNG quality pitching. I also told you on the other forum { before you had me kicked off} that Henry had ordered the payroll slashed and to build from with-in the farm. You and the moderator on that forum told me I was crazy but that is pretty much exactly what has transpired along with another last place finish in 2023 and failing something unforeseen likely another last place finish in 2024.
Randy – I believe the trade did add a YOUNG arm but NOT A QUALITY arm. You were clearly right about the payroll being slashed so far BUT I don’t think you have Henry’s perspective completely right. I think he wants big profits and small expenditures on free agents. Building from within suggests adding better draft picks by tanking. If that’s what you meant, then I think you are right. The problem with that approach is If guys like Bloom and Breslow don’t do a great job drafting then there is no improvement from within. It’s not often that a first round pick turns out to be an all-star but in theory your chances are better with a better drafting position.
Unfortunately, DD who got blasted by many for his draft picks chose Casas and Houck with first round picks. Depending on how the Red Sox handle Houck, both may end up all-star quality players. Mayer has failed miserably, Yorke has failed miserably Romero has failed miserably and Teel remains Bloom’s best 1st round pick from Bloom. Houck and Casas were 24th and 26th picks in the draft. Mayer was 4th, Teel was 14th, Yorke was 17th and Romero was 24th.
So how can a team use a build from with-in approach if the players drafted don’t do well? That’s why people should appreciate the fact that Duran (DD guy), Rafaela (DD guy), Abreu (DD guy) are all improving farm system guys that need a chance to prove themselves. Grissom was traded for at a cost of $17MM which is outrageously high for a kid that projects to have a ceiling of above league average. Anthony and Teel are the leading candidates to join DD’s guys (Bello, Houck, Crawford, Rafaela, Abreu and Duran) as our next generation of quality farm players.
Henry’s belief of building from with-in is like so much of the metrics crap we read daily. It’s theoretical not realistic. Dombrowski and now Young in Texas have the formula of how to build a winner. Breslow should follow their formula and with all the potential young stars turn the situation around quickly. But I don’t see that happening. I think we are in for many, many more years of mediocre to bad teams.
They got an up-and-coming SP prospect for a 30 year old middle reliever who just ran a 3.90 ERA and 4.50 FIP. It makes plenty of sense for them. If anything, this doesn’t make sense for the Royals. If you’re gonna give up real prospects for a reliever (which is a weird move with the current state of their team), it should be for someone better than Schreiber.
The current front office is rebuilding. The ownership group is giving fans conflicting reports/opinions. The ownership never gave Bloom clear guidance which is why it’s been such a cluster f up to this point.
Breslow isn’t going to throw good money on top of bad. He has direction, the direction the Sox need to go and move forward the best he can.
And you know all this how?
Paying attention for the last few years, specifically the moves made this offseason. Regardless of the full throttle nonsense, it’s clear they are not looking to contend this year. I just hope Breslow has an actual plan and that ownership actually let’s him execute. I’ve been spoiled most of the last 20 years. I can be patient now.
And you don’t know this how?
Problem is in a big market like Boston, you don’t say one thing and do another. My guess is even Bloom knew the pitching in the system was weak and his plan was to spend when the young hitters were ready to join the big club. Unfortunately neither he nor Breslow can spend if ownership keeps their money in the vault.
in a big market like Boston, you don’t say one thing and do another.
=============================
I’d say this is true for every team. It’s fraud. Maybe fraud-lite, but you don’t say “full throttle” and then wind up cutting spending.
Really they should have just been honest with us from the beginning. Who needs their hopes dashed when it was never going to happen in the first place.
Every, what Sox ownership did was similar to a pump and dump stock scheme in that they said things to drum up interest to get season renewals and to continue merch sales. Why should fans believe what they next say supposedly try to do unless a trade is finalized or a contract is signed? This ownership for over 15 years built up so much good will and trust but has lost all of it and more in the last 5.
Dewey – Very well said!!!
Deal…it makes perfect sense unless you actually think they plan to compete in 2024…its a good return for schreiber
It makes sense regardless. Prior to the trade the Sox had several MLB-caliber middle relievers pencilled in for AAA: Weissert, Wincowski, Murphy, Criswell, Kelly, Jacques, and even some interesting ML FAs like Luetge. The delta between Schreiber and most of these guys is tiny, and could well even be negative for a couple of them.
It makes perfect sense. Given the 10-12 guys lined up for BP work, a couple had to go. And as I said when the subject first came up a couple of days ago, we would be likely selling high on Jansen, Martin and Schreiber.
Joe, even with the crackdown on phantom DL time, you must realize you need extra guys who are back-emd mlb ready on the farm to ride shuttle when injuries DO happen, right?
You don’t just pencil in your 12-13 man pitching staff, then trade away anyone who doesn’t fit. And that’s true of both SP AND RP.
Really, the downside here is what it signals for the next couple seasons as far as expectations go for the mlb club.
GA: Agreed, but if you think the extra guys won’t make it through waivers, you can trade some excess now. BTW, I recommend paying the $30 to get rid of the adds. I just did it and it is very nice.
Suit: unless I’m forgetting, doesn’t Schreiber still have his options remaining?
GA: Yes. Schreiber has all 3 options remaining. Mata is out of options. Not sure about Luetge. Slaten is Rule 5.
Suit: that’s where I was headed with things. Even if schreiber didn’t fit in the *best possible alignment* (debatable) for the BP he made a GREAT piece for call-ups where you had a known quality that wouldn’t be a big dropoff in performance.
That’s what makes a team like ATL or LAD what they are. It’s a ‘next man up’ mentality.
And that’s where the rays model falters. They effectively trade their depth away , either directly or by function of leaving a void to fill through call-up, to get more prospects to fill the mlb roster. A milb piece is ready, the mlber is traded for more lower level guys and the milb guy graduated as a cheap everyday player.
GA: I see what you are saying. I think the Red Sox may work things differently when they are winning games on the level of the LAD and ATL. It looks like they are more desperate for pitching prospects than MLB wins right now. I also think the Red Sox can afford to retain more of their talent than the Rays.
Suit: I don’t feel you can have it both ways though, do you?
Either you follow the rays model, which, DEMANDS you trade your mlb talent before FA or collect comp pics for prospects, or, you’ve got exactly what boston had in 2019 which the team abandoned and bloom screwed up immeasurably.
GA: I think the things to emulate from the Rays are their talent evaluation and player development. Emulating the Rays financially makes no sense for a large market team. The Red Sox need to keep significantly outspending the Rays financially which will allow them to retain talent that the Rays are forced to trade.
Suit: part of that Rays talent evaluation and player development is VOLUME-based.
Not just the automatic comp a/b pics guaranteed every season and the bonus pools we’ve talked about. The rays also bring in and cast away tons of players they didn’t draft but acquire through their letting go of top flight mlb players.
They still have a high prospect failure rate just like the rest of MLB. They make up for it by pushing a greater volume of prospects through their system to get more positive outcomes.
Ask yourself, if I have 5 successes out of 100, or 10 out of 200, was one better than the other? The latter claims more total success stories, but, it comes at the cost of admission to get those successes.
With the rays, I’d say if the average mlb team is 5/100 the rays are more like 11/180. They’re a little better than the normal, but they do take a ton more volume to get there.
And that volume has a price.
GA: I know the Rays get a couple of more draft picks which is an advantage, but shouldn’t the Red Sox be able to get close to the number of prospects the Rays get? Both teams have a similar number of draft picks and each team has to stay within an international bonus pool. What do you mean by the volume has a price?
This move makes sense for the red sox to everyone that has accepted the fact they do not plan to compete in 2023..trade a rp going into his 30 year old season with limited track record for what seems like a decent upside young sp prospect with 6 years of control
and save on the payroll
Schreiber was set to make only $500k over the league minimum this year. This was not about money
It’s 2024
My bad..2024…but you get it they arent competing this year..lol but same could be said for 2023 and 2021 and 2020..starting to believe 2022 was am unintended outlier..this team sucks and has since 2018
The outlier year was 2021, and the main thing that allowed 2021 was health and FA luck. 2022-23 were unlucky on both fronts. The underlying core has been steadily improving since 2020, and since 2021 it’s been good enough for a playoff run if things break right.
This has nothing to do with 2024, as the Sox are drowning in relievers who aren’t too far behind Schreiber. Not trading one would have probably meant just losing someone on waivers in the near future, and without picking up Sandlin, who is very interesting.
Pool hall must be in a time warp!
Yea ..every red sox season looks the same since 2019…
Best to be more precise with one’s choice of word. Boston surely plans to “compete”, which is has done the past couple of years too. What it is apparently not looking to do is “contend”, which is both a higher bar and a the one that matters more.
Thats semantics..compete, contend…they arent planning to not be in last place in 2024..thats plain as day to anyone paying attention
3 relievers going to the rotation, and he is shopping the rest of the usable arms in the pen. No power bat added, or front-line rotation arm. I know the Red Sox are coming to the realization they are a lock for last place, but I didn’t know they were going “full throttle” for it.
Which 3? Bello and Giolito are obvious starters. Crawford made 23 starts last year and put up an elite 3.30 xERA on the year; he’s a clear starter too. Pivetta was essentially a starter last year even after technically being removed from the rotation, as he would throw for like 5-6 innings after an opener. Given how he finished last year, and his track record of starting in Boston, he seems like a clear starter as well.
The only question mark is the #5 spot. I think the jury’s out on Whitlock as a starter; his issue has been more injuries derailing his seasons than his talent. Houck I like better as a reliever, so if he beats out Whitlock for a rotation spot, there you go I guess, that’s one reliever to the rotation. I think it’s pretty likely that Whitlock wins the rotation spot and thrives in it, though.
Crawford was pressed into starting duty remember? We were short 3 starters then also due to injuries. He stayed in the rotation for the remainder as Pevetta pitched his way out of the rotation. I assumed we would have Sale and have picked up another 2 starters and Crawford would be our fill in, adding another good arm to the pen with Whitlock and Houck with him. I didn’t imagine we would simply switch out a starter and add nothing of worth and poach off the bullpen for 3 arms.
Crawford was a starter in the minors and was brought up to start due to injuries/underperformance in front of him. That’s an incredibly common way for guys to get their first opportunity.
It doesn’t really matter how we learned that Crawford is a capable starter, though. The fact remains that he was one last year, and he will very likely be one this year. He has seldom been a reliever in his career.
3 relievers going to the rotation,
=====================
Only 2, since Crawford presumably has the inside track on #3.
Crawford being pencilled in as your number 2 or 3 (we have no idea if Gio will be any good) says it all about this team. Crawford is a capable pitcher. No knock. I would be fine with him as a spot starter competing for the 5th spot if this was a competitive team. We are not. He may end up being the ace for all we know with what is in it.
The point being that we have at least three SPs at this point, maybe 4 if you include Pivetta.
Technically we have whoever starts games being starters. There will be 5 human beings starting games at a minimum next season, and each of them will be called a starter that day and each time they start. It doesn’t mean they were the optimal choices based on the needs we knew we had.
As I have said a million times on here, this team can have either a strong pen, or have a weak rotation and weak pen. Every arm you pouch out of the pen that is a proven reliever and forced to start, means you have to replace them also in the pen. Out of all the guys in the pen, Crawford is probably the best equipped to be in the rotation on his ability. Pivetta has been a middling starter for his career. He is a solid 5 on a mediocre team, but was a level up out of the pen. That isn’t the issue. The issue has always been that we needed upgrades in the rotation so middling starters were no longer in it, and so we could keep the guys that have shown much better success in the pen, staying in the pen. We didn’t get the starters. Period.
We now have to place 3 guys from that pen in the rotation, and then replace those three guys with three guys that are either unproven, or dumpster dive material. Unless management decides to do yet another 180, we are not getting those upgrades in the rotation.
William2 – You are so right!! The other thing that matters a lot is match-ups.
We struggled in 2019 because Sale, Price and Eovaldi were down during the season. That meant guys like Eovaldi got paired up with SP1 pitchers on other teams. The year was a disappointment due to the injuries caused by Cora.
In 2024, without any changes, Giolito is going to face SP1 pitcher and get killed. Bello will be out manned as well at SP2. The only real chance of wins will come from the bottom of the rotation which isn’t that much different than Bello and better than Giolito. Crawford, Houck, Whitlock and Pivetta are all as good or better than Giolito unless he reverts to his old performances from years ago.
Taking Houck out of the rotation is a mistake. I would set up the rotation as follows to maximize chances of winning at the bottom of the rotation:
SP1 – Giolito
SP2 – Pivetta
SP3 – Bello ( better match-ups could mean more wins)
SP4 – Crawrford
SP5 – Houck
Whitlock is there if someone gets injured or long relief is needed.
The remaining 7 pitchers are incredibly weak other than Jansen and Martin.
Closer – Jansen
Right handed set-up man – Martin and Winckowski
Left handed set=up man – Bernardino and Murphy
Two other relief spots – ? No good choices
Tough match-ups at SP1, SP2 and SP3 plus a weak pen makes this team incredibly vulnerable and far weaker than the 2023 team that finished last and got Bloom fired.
Do we need to wait the mandatory 3 years that so many people insist on to fire Breslow? I sure hope not.
Cora injured pitchers? Funny. No manager has ever approached Dr. Boonedoggle in that category! The hospitals, surgery centers and walk in clinics are littered with overused Yankee pitchers. From the rotation to the bullpen and everywhere in between he has consistently trotted anyone who is remotely successful out to the mound until they break.
I get it, you all hate Cora. But it could be worse.
poach, not pouch. Didn’t realize it was changing it.
I personally never liked Houck in the rotation. Do not get me wrong. I like him, but not as a starter. He has a hell of a time after the second turn of an order, and I just feel like nearly every lefty gets such a good look at him. I am not talking about numbers either. Lefties hitters just always look like they see him so well out of his hand and get off some very good swings regardless of results. Out of the pen throwing hard for one turn around a lineup, he is pretty nasty on righty hitters. He has more value as a starter (anyone has more value as a starter and that is why they get paid more. I hate people saying that) but has more impact as a reliever, because he is a better reliever.
I have always disliked Pivetta and his approach going back to the Phillies. Him having success out of the pen actually surprised me. He is always so predictable as a starter and there is so little faith in his fastball in the zone and such an erratic breaking ball that I didn’t think he would improve going to the pen. I figured he would remain a high 4 to 5 ERA reliever. That was one of the only pleasant surprises last year. They are hoping that his success in the pen finally translates to starting. I think he is more likely to remain the same guy he has been for 7 years. A .500 pitcher in the mid to high 4 Era range. A number 5 level guy.
Crawford is a fine 5 or spot starter imho. 4 upside possibility on even a fairly good team. We are not that. He may end up our Ace this year, God help us.
We may have to come to the realization that Bello is good enough to be a rotation piece and stay there for years, but perhaps not the ace type pitcher we thought he could and would develop into. He still has another year or two to figure out a formular, but right now he is a 3 on a good team.
The bullpen is going from potentially the only strong and deep part of the team to looking worse and worse by the day. I honestly thought the only thing they needed there was a top lefty arm and it was completely set to be really tough to deal with.
The plan they drew up instead was taking 2 to 3 relievers out of the pen. Not getting the lefty. Shopping more of the better pitchers in it.
As always take this for what it is. Does anything matter if you are aiming to come in last? No. There isn’t a player on this team that if we lose won’t make us anymore in last than we will be. It just leaves a very bad taste and looks really bad as an organization to the fans, but more importantly, the people playing in and working in MLB that have 29 other choices, and many of those 29 have become preferrable.
The Yankees are notorious for killing relievers. No doubt. The overuse is so bad. So many flame outs of such dominant guys.
The remaining 7 pitchers are incredibly weak other than Jansen and Martin.
======================
Just out of curiosity, what were the ERAs and/or FIPs for:
Winc
Berardino
Campbell
Weissert
Whitlock (as an RP)
william-227 mins ago
I personally never liked Houck in the rotation.
==================================
Houck screams out “closer” His splits as a starter:
1st PA .575 OPS
2nd PA .709
3rd PA .957
And his RP OPS is .570.
I’d be at least a tiny bit surprised if he didn’t out-perform Jansen as a closer.
No manager has ever approached Dr. Boonedoggle in that category!
====================
Girardi, imo, went a long way to destroying the careers of Joba, Hughes & Kennedy. Hard to top that.
Joe – Wow so much to rebuttal.
Lets start with the basics of relieving. Don’t put up a WHIP greater than 1.1 and you are good. 1.2 is average 1.3 suggests you should do something else for your career.
Bernardino – 48 hits 50.2 innings 19 BBs WHIP 1.303
Schreiber – 41 hits 46.2 innings 27 BBs WHIP 1.41.4
Campbell – Unproven at MLB level
Weissert – Unproven but bad 2023 with Yankees
Whitlock – A guy who is best used in stress innings but gave up far too many hits last year per inning. Great control makes him good for stress innings. I had clumped him in with the SPs so that’s why he wasn’t part of my comment about relievers.
Houck, when given proper notice that he can work on his stamina as a starter has been good. When Cora springs a change on him like he’s done so frequently his later innings suffer. That’s bad managing not a bad pitcher. Houck started his whole life until Cora had a brain fart and changed things up and destroyed him as a starter. Here is why he’s not been as effective as he should have been as a starter.
Houck pitched in 44 games at Missouri and started ALL of them and had a great career. When Boston drafted him he went to Low A at 21 years old and was able to hold hits per inning to under 1.0 but he walked 8 in 22 innings. All 10 of his performances were as a starter. The following year he pitched solely at Hi-A where he had 23 appearances and 23 starts. His hits per inning were under 1 again but his BBs had soared to 60 in 119 innings!!! This was a huge red flag that should have been addressed but the pitching coaches in the farm system suck. Despite the bad year at Hi-A Houck got promoted to AA in 2019. This is when the crap pitching coaches made the brilliant decision to shorten him up and make him a reliever. He started 15 games at AA then relieved in 2 games before being sent to AAA. His AA numbers were atrocious but the MLB club had lots of pitching injuries thanks to Cora so Houck was being rushed through the system as quickly as possible. Moving to AAA in 2019 he got reclassified as a reliever not a starter. He got in 16 games (2 as a starter) and he threw a total of 25 innings and gave up 19 hits which was great and 14 walks which was terrible. He got his first save too.. So by 2019 he was a life long starter turned reliever in 2019. Just to make things a bit more confusing, when Houck pitches in the Arizona League in 2019 at the end of the year, he once again was a starter. Again his hits per 9IP was below 1 and he walked a runner every other inning so the problem still had not been fixed with his control.
In 2020 there was no minors and Bloom had gutted the team by giving away Mookie and Price and sending Sale to get surgery so they asked Houck to start 3 games at the MLB level that year. What’s not clear is if he spent the off season after 2019 working out as a starter or a reliever since he did both in 2019 thanks to the poorly run pitching program in the farm system. The 3 games at starter suggested relieving WAS NOT his forte because he went 3-0 with a 0.53 ERA and a 0.882 WHIP. In 17 innings he gave up 6 hits and 9 walks!!! Thus, the control issues still existed but he was pretty much untouchable that year. His slider and his change up were coming out of the same arm slot and broke opposite directions and hitters did not adjust to it during his short stint in the majors that year.
In 2021 with Cora back as manager after sitting out 60 games for the biggest cheating scandal in history, Houck’s future was screwed. On April 3 he starts against BAL and gives up 6 hits and a walk in 5 innings and throws 85 pitches. The team loses thanks to two unearned runs on a Devers error. On APR 6th (3 days later) Cora brings Houck in for the 11th inning and he throws 15 pitches in relief. To further mess up his rhythm as a starter he sits him until APR 18th (12 days later) and starts him versus the CWS and he struggles giving up 3 runs in 4.1 innings thanks to a home run. he walks nobody.. Cora then demoted him to AAA and he didn’t return until July 16th against the Yankees as a reliever.and earned a save after starting 6 games at AAA.
Cora then chose to use him throughout the 2021 season as a starter for 10 straight appearances never letting him go beyond 5 innings, sometimes because of pitch count but mostly because Cora’s an idiot. 0n SEP 18th with an ERA of 3.75 Cora converted Houck back to relief for several more games and then on the OCT 2 he asked him to start once again. Houck threw 5 perfect innings against Washington and got pulled at 53 pitches. Three days later he came in relief against the NYY in the playoffs and threw one inning. 3 days later he started against TB!! He gave up 2 hits and no walks in 5 innings 61 pitches and got pulled. He got the win. After that he pitched 4.1 innings in relief during the playoffs vs both TB and HOU.
Is he a starter or reliever? Cora says both and that leads to all kinds of problems during the off season when you prepare for the coming season. In 2022, he pitched in 32 games but only started 4. He had 8 saves but his control issues resurfaced as a reliever and he walked 22 guys in 60 innings. His ERA was a sparkling 3.15 and his WHIP was good because he only gave up 7.4 hits per 9 IP while walking 3.3.
After the 2022 season Bloom signed Kenley and Martin thus pushing Houck out of the closer position but the off season prep was for relief so when he found out in Spring Training that he was starting again in 2023 he wasn’t prepared. In 21 starts he gave up 104 hits in 106 innings so his stuff was still excellent BUT he walked 41 batters leaving his WHIP at a horrible 1.368. His control issues resurfaced thanks to the bad managing of his workload by Cora and the pitching coaches.
They are now gone and hopefully the new coaches will eliminate Cora from the decision making when it comes to Houck. If he gets his control back he’s an outstanding starting pitcher, especially if he spends the off season building stamina rather than perfecting his relief pitching. The off season prep is critical to being successful. The pitching staff and Cora need to define Houck as a starter or reliever but not both if he is to maximize his potential.
Houck is one of the best pitchers on the team if not the best and he simply needs to have his role defined and not changed. If he’s going to be used as a utility pitcher like Cora has done since he returned from his punishment then Houck will continue to be a wasted talent.
Trollfree2 hours ago
Joe – Wow so much to rebuttal.
=====================
Here’s my rebuttal:
The five guys I mentioned will have a better than league average ERA for RPs. So I propose a bet of honor, with the loser not signing on for the month of October. it is a simple choice.
You think they are incredibly weak, and I think they are above average. LMK when you decline.
Troll – It’s not too productive to look at ERA or WHIP, and especially not for a team with as abysmal defense as the 2023 Red Sox. Here are the 2023 xERA values for the SoxProspects.com projected bullpen for this upcoming season:
RH Kenley Jansen – 3.25
RH Chris Martin – 3.25
RH Garrett Whitlock – 4.67 (xERA isn’t available with splits, but he put up a 3.76 FIP and 3.38 xFIP as a reliever; a healthy Whitlock projects as a plus reliever)
LH Brennan Bernardino – 4.10
RH Justin Slaten – N/A
RH Bryan Mata – N/A
RH Isaiah Campbell – 3.87
LH Chris Murphy – 3.71
…and for some notable guys projected to start at AAA:
RH Josh Winckowski – 3.71
LH Joe Jacques – 3.98
RH Zack Kelly – 5.96 (SSS; was 2.76 in another SSS in 2022)
RH Greg Weissert – 4.42
RH Cooper Criswell – 5.20
LH Brandon Walter – 4.45
Far from “incredibly weak” – that’s a pretty solid group. Most teams would not have the luxury of starting Winckowski and Weissert types in AAA. Nor would they have so many AAA pitchers who were pitching meaningful innings in the majors the previous year. The Sox also have a few relief prospects with great stuff down on the farm, like Luis Guerrero, who aren’t mentioned here but who could also be helpful.
Joe – So after all I wrote you want to make a bet about guys who all far exceeded 100 at ERA+ that they will do it again in 2024? Gee you really are going out on a limb with this lame ass proposal!!! hahahaha
Seriously, what’s your point? They have for the most part bad WHIPs which is not good for relievers and low ERAs so rather than proposing a WHIP bet you propose an ERA bet?
Gee, let me think, NO. It proves nothing.
Lets bet whether any of the 5 are all-stars in 2024!!!
That would suggest they ONLY ONE did well. That’s hugely in your favor!!!
notstarboard – No offense but anyone who uses SoxProspects.com for their unbiased opinions is not somebody I can to discuss baseball with. It’s a lame site with biased opinions. It uses bastardized metrics and there is a zero reliability factor in their numbers.
The fact that you don’t think ERA and WHIP are significant says everything to me. You are not a former player nor are you someone who actually understands the game if you make such ridiculous comments. I know batting average is over rated as is fielding percentage. You are one of the metric lemmings and I don’t have time to waste on you explaining statistics versus contrived estimates.
Just let me know which one will make the all-star team in 2024? NONE? Wow that’s impressive.
Just like I stated, INCREDIBLY WEAK. They belong on a 75 win team.
Lol your username seems to be less earnest than I was expecting. SoxProspects is apparently just outright unusuable as a starting point for selecting a plausible lineup for 2024, despite the fact that their pen configuration makes complete sense. You didn’t dispute any of the substance of what I said. I actually supported my argument, and you are trying to “trust me bro” away the whole thing and double down on a bad take. This post is a proper Dunning-Kruger manifesto.
ERA and WHIP are both heavily dependent on defense, park, and luck. xERA is not perfect but it has no such weaknesses, and it is a substantially better metric to use. FIP, xFIP, SIERA, really any of these are going to be more indicative of performance than ERA and WHIP.
The All Star team is mostly a popularity contest and it’s affected by small sample sizes as the voting happens in June. Add it to the pile of metrics that correlate with performance but which fundamentally don’t tell you much. And besides, your “no one in the bullpen will make the All Star team because I said so” argument makes no sense when Jansen was an All Star last year.
Trollfree15 hours ago
Seriously, what’s your point?
==============================
My point is always the same.
1-I do enough research to know when to suggest a wager.
2-You know so little about these guys, you post nonsense about them being incredibly weak.
So you going to take me up on my kind offer or not (knowing full well that you won’t)?
I like it as a Red Sox fan. Sandlin is a really good pitching prospect to get for a middle reliever, and I’d rather they use Schreiber’s roster spot to see if a young guy to stick. Schreiber was not that good last year anyways.
roiste – The question is WILL THEY USE the spot for a young guy. I doubt it. Seems like Breslow has reclamation projects selected and he’ll start picking up more experienced guys who have played badly lately to fill the spots. Heck, he got O’Neill rather than starting Duran, Rafaela and Abreu to see which ones are legit.
Are you complaining that there are too *many* vets in the outfield? lol
The projected starting outfield includes Duran and Abreu, and Rafaela will likely play plenty.
notstarboard – With Anthony potentially ascending to the majors in 2024 the odd man out is Abreu. O’Neill was an unnecessary addition that doesn’t fit in the long term picture for the Red Sox. He is an experiment that Breslow wants to conduct at the cost of investing his money in a SP1.
If for any reason Cora plays O’Neill and Yoshida in the outfield so he can sit Rafaela and Abreu then yes there are too many unqualified vets in the outfield.
The current plan is to leave Rafaela in AAA which is a HUGE mistake, it’s to play O’Neill until he proves to be the inconsistent player that has been performing badly the last several years and CORA is such an idiot I guarantee he will start Yoshida in LF on a regular basis.
Your sarcasm is not appreciated. I pulled my punches on this one but I won’t next time.
Anthony is not going to be in the majors in 2024. He’s 19 and only has 35 ABs in AA. He’s likely to be up sometime in 2025, but it could well be mid-year.
If the Sox did not sign someone like O’Neill, the outfield would have been Duran-Rafaela-Abreu with Yoshida and Refsnyder as the other OF-capable guys on the roster. Behind that there is essentially nobody. One injury, or one of three young guys doesn’t perform, and all of a sudden the Sox are starting Dalbec in the outfield, or they’re promoting ML FAs or recent waiver claims. That would be a ludicrous lack of depth.
Rafaela now can make the MLB team out of camp with a solid spring, or he could be promoted after a couple months when the inevitable injury or underperformance arises, or if he’s banging down the door in AAA. You are advocating for throwing him in the deep end and having no backup plan if he (or Abreu, or Duran) starts to drown. There will be *plenty* of ABs for Rafaela this year if he proves he can handle it.
O’Neill is making less than $6 million this year and was acquired for peanuts. He has absolutely nothing to do with the decision to spend $25-30 million a year on a Snell or Montgomery type. He was acquired because he has an MVP candidate ceiling and should at least provide good defense and RH pop (both big needs). Not every player needs to be in the long term plans of an organization to make sense.
The only likely reasons Cora would play both Yoshida and O’Neill together in the OF for more than occasional rest days are that Duran and/or Abreu are injured and/or struggling. In that situation, Rafaela would have an *even easier* path to playing time. He is not blocked in AAA in the slightest.
I was not being sarcastic. I was legitimately amazed to see someone making this argument. 99% of the posts I see complaining about the outfield are because they didn’t sign a Soler or Hernandez type, not that they had the audacity to trade a few depth arms for Tyler O’Neill.
Gotta keep up the cash flow!
Just clean house at this point. Trade everyone with any kind of value and start over again
yeah their roster is a complete mess. They might as well take this year to rebuild because it’s so obvious that they’re going to be last place again.
The plan is pretty clear, not sure what fans are confused about.
Giolito was not a “win now” signing, it’s a rebound and flip signing. Sox are going to move Jensen and Martin, if they can they will try to move Yoshida and O’Neil and if he can work a miracle, Story.
Breslow is going to trade anything for nickels and dimes in hopes to become rich.
You forgot the other possibility (more likely?) with Giolito: he’s complete trash and they’re stuck with him for another year at not-insignificant dollars
Because he was bad a couple months after he was traded? Giolito is going to be one of the better signings this offseason
Because he hasn’t been good in a couple years now. He’s going to be one of the better signings?? lol Ok dude, whatever you say
and then he will opt out
Giolito was good as recently as the trade deadline in 2023. He had 2.8 WAR at that point. Then he got divorced, switched teams twice, and his numbers cratered. It is not unreasonable to expect him to be able to bounce back, given that he is not facing the same life challenges right now, he’s had a full stable offseason, and he’s still only 29. He was downright elite a couple years ago and hasn’t even picked up injuries since then.
He said a couple of months not years.
I completely disagree. This is a terrible deal no matter what. If he is the cy young winner this year we will still be out of the playoffs most likely and he will use that success to opt out and sign for more elsewhere. If he is terrible he will automatically re-up for the second year then you have to hope you get any improvement. If he does improve, he will be a free agent and demand more money and years. This signing never made sense to me without at least another significant starter added at either ace or number 2 level.
That the elephant in the room. If he is good, we still won’t be smelling the post season and he will opt out. If bad, we get two years of bad.
If he’s good the Red Sox trade him genius. The Sox are not competing for the playoffs this season, they will be lucky to not finish dead last.
I don’t understand what is so hard for Red Sox fans to understand, the Sox had to give Giolito an extra year because they are terrible. Their farm system isn’t good either. Breslow brought in Giolito to flip, they may make some other small deals to flip as well.
So, we are flipping Gio for what? What would you give up for a month of a guy that you know will opt out if he shows anything, or you have to keep if he is bad for that month? What would we settle for in return?
You may get really lucky on a lower tier prospect from a contender. The other option is the old mutual salary dump trade to cancel each other out.
We will be out of it, so I agree the best move is to dump him off at the trade deadline like you say, but the idea that this is some kind of a chip we are cashing in on is a bridge too far unless we get extremely lucky on what that return becomes.
drasco036 – Seriously? The Red Sox had to give Giolito an extra year because they are terrible? What bizarre thinking!!
Breslow gave him two years just in case he successfully reverts him to his old self from years ago. It a show of confidence on his part and REALLY REALLY DUMB!!!
He wasted money on a guy we didn’t need so he didn’t have to sign a guy we do need. That’s incredibly stupid.
I believe you are right that no free agent would want to come to Boston with Cora, the whole Devers thing and his errors not going away, a new GM with a team that lacks all-stars. We aren’t as attractive as KC or PIT at this point.
So what does a GM do in this situation. He trades for guys who are not allowed to say no. He trades for all-stars that impact the actual value of the roster not hopefuls like Giolito or O’Neill. The Bloom draftees are young enough that they still have value so you dump guys that are pretenders to other teams. Unfortunately, the team doesn’t have anyone that can identify pretenders based on the guys they have acquired recently and in the last 4 years.
Go get players one year from free agency on teams that can’t afford to keep them. Give them all the 2020 or later prospects except Anthony and Teel. BUT only go for all-star level players. It’s the only way to get around the problem you brought up.
William2 – The problem with dumping guys at the trade deadline or during spring training or anytime during the season is that the money gained means NOTHING.
I’ve been holding out hope that Breslow was simply seeking lower rates for all-star quality talent but as spring training begins it looks like there is no way that he’ll be doing that.
So how will the money be spent going forward? On guys like Giolito and O’Neill? Or dumping talent to get a pre-arb 2B that doesn’t project to be an all-star?
There is no direction, just like when Bloom was GM. Breslow’s criteria for good deals is completely unknown. The available money is completely unknown. The only knowns are that Breslow doesn’t have the clout to fire Cora and the balls to put Devers at DH where he belongs.
It’s hard to say things are getting worse but after Bloom got us clobbered and we are on the canvas it appears Breslow is whispering in our ear to stay down!!!
This is Bloom II, the petrified GM who can’t make a move on acquiring talent!!.
Ever get that icky feeling you may be coming down with the Cuetos or Greinkes? I got the Klubers last year and was in bed for a week trying to shake it off.
If Giolito wins the Cy Young this year, the Sox got a Cy Young winner on a $19 million dollar deal, which would be an incredible value. They would also immediately give him a qualifying offer, which would result in an extra second round pick if Giolito walked, and which would give them the inside track to re-signing him. If he is terrible, it’s only one extra year, and even a diminished Giolito should be durable and eat innings, which this rotation desperately needs.
You aren’t going to find a guy with higher upside for a lower price, so if you’re interested in signing an ace or number 2, congratulations, he has a better chance than many of being that.
The Sox gave Giolito an extra year because he was a Cy Young caliber pitcher from 2019-2021, he was good in 2022-2023 except when his life was falling apart in late 2023, he’s uncommonly durable, and he’s still only 29.
Most projections I’ve seen have their playoff odds in the 15-30% range. That is well within striking distance if a few things go right before the trade deadline.
notstartboard – So we have outed a paid influencer!!!
We missed you guys from the Bloom days.
Writing FICTION about Giolito may fool some but not the hearty Red Sox fans that recognize BS when they read it.
Giolito is the 17th most expensive starting pitcher in baseball. WOW WHAT A GREAT DEAL FOR A GUY WHO HAS SUCKED IN 2023 and 2022. There are 30 teams which means at least 13 teams don’t have ANY SP that costs as much as Giolito. coming off two bad years.
You aren’t going to find a guy with higher upside for a lower price? hahahaha What horse crap!!!
Lets just count a few off the top of my head:
1 – Seth Lugo $15MM
2 – Jordan Hicks $11MM
3 – Marcus Stroman $18.5MM
4 – Michael Wacha $16MM
5 – Sean Manaea $14MM
6 – Kenta Maeda $12MM
7 – Tim Mahle $11MM
8 – Jack Flaherty $14MM
9 – Frankie Montas $16MM
10 – Luis Severino – $13MM
And I’m just getting started!!!
If the front office chooses to pay you to write positive comments about their mistakes be prepared to be inundated with retaliatory comments!!!
notstartboard – Been there and done that with Kluber a former Cy Young winner who sucked before coming to Boston and while he was in Boston.
Your comment about 15 to 30th percentile is pathetic.
Striking distance? Only if looking through some very, very powerful binoculars or a telescope!!!
1. Corey Kluber was 37. Giolito is 29. Their signings were not even remotely similar.
2. Kluber was good the year before he came to Boston. 3.0 fWAR.
3. Giolito was an average-ish starter in 2022 and was at least that good in 2023 until the trade deadline when he went through a messy divorce, switched teams twice, and his performance tanked. He did not suck in 2022 and 2023.
4. Every single name you just mentioned is projected for lower WAR than Giolito this year. None had a three-year run of pitching at Cy Young contender levels like Giolito did from 2019-2021, none of them had Cy Young votes in 2022 or 2023, and most of them are older. I think Severino’s the only one with back to by CYA contender years, and that was all the way back in 2017-2018. If you look at the 2024 Free Agent Tracker on Fangraphs, only 7 pitchers are projected to put up more WAR in 2024 than Giolito: Nola, Yamamoto, Snell, Montgomery, Gray, Rodriguez, and Imanaga. The only one making less per year is Imanaga, and he has a larger guarantee, he’s a year older, and he has never thrown a pitch in MLB. Teams clearly did not value him as highly as WAR projections would suggest.
5. Fangraphs gives the Sox a 28% chance at making the playoffs. That doesn’t mean a 72% chance of sucking. A good chunk of the 72% are going to be teams that were in the hunt for most of the year, but just weren’t good enough to grab a wild card spot (ergo within striking distance). There is a TON of variability in outcomes just due to luck… Last year the Rangers and Diamondbacks had 38% and 15% chances respectively of even making the playoffs, never mind winning the pennant.
6. Using reason instead of spewing unsubstantiated bile = being a corporate shill. Cool. How about you start backing up your arguments, or substantively disagreeing with mine, instead of just asserting things?
2 – Jordan Hicks $11MM
5 – Sean Manaea $14MM
6 – Kenta Maeda $12MM
7 – Tim Mahle $11MM
8 – Jack Flaherty $14MM
9 – Frankie Montas $16MM
10 – Luis Severino – $13MM
===============================
As always, I am wlling to wager Gio has a higher than anyone you want to pick.
Looking at this guys numbers last two years, he looks pretty legit. I think the Royals will be a lot better this year…
Message from the Bridge: The SS Fenway Park is going down fast. Every man for himself. Pad your personal stats because there’s no “Team” in s***show!
If he becomes closer, his walk out song needs to be the Dukes of Hazzard theme song.
Not high on Schreiber but this is a dumb trade for BOS.
Why? Schreiber was great in 2022 but he has no track record and his production last season was extremely replaceable. They have a bunch of guys in the system now who could give them the same or better, especially Isaiah Campbell, who was projected to start the season in AAA before this move.
Plus, contention this season is unlikely, so if the Royals want to give up an interesting developmental SP prospect for an okay middle reliever, it seems like a smart move to take that deal. What are the Red Sox really losing here?
Or maybe, just maybe, you’re dumb?
I love what the Royals are doing this off-season. No real huge free agent signings or anything but they are supplementing their roster with solid veteran additions. I especially like the move of signing Seth Lugo and locking up potential face of the franchise for the foreseeable future.
This is a gift to the Royals. The Royals get a solid five year veteran reliever with 3 years of control for a 22 year old 40 grade lottery ticket coming off of a lat strain.
Coming off a lat strain? Hardly a career threatening injury. Sandlin is a good young arm. Sox win this one.
I didn’t say it was a career threatening injury. Sandlin might pay dividends in 2027 or 28, maybe, who knows. Schreiber is the bird in the hand.
Guy is 23 and has 4 pitches and throws 97, with options remaining. KC shudda gave him a shot in ST then traded him if it didn’t work out. He was their #7 prospect. Weird just to try to win 75 games, lol.
He never pitched above one high a appearance. He’s simply so far from mlb ready you can’t waste a spot on a ST invite.
He was also #7 in nearly the worst farm in baseball. In other words, #5, #7, floating above a sea of currently near-worthless bodies doesn’t count for much.
You said that right
Focusing on where he ranks in any team’s system isn’t especially meaningful. A team with 4 65FVs could have the best farm, but a horrible #5. Of a team could have -0- 50 FVs, but 10 45 FVs.
At the end of the day, FG has him as a 40+.
Yes. It will be interesting to see where Sandlin ranks in Boston’s farm system.
The Royals get a solid five year veteran reliever
=========================
Schreiber had one good season.
Sandlin has yet to throw a pitch in AA.
Or,you could say the 11th rounder gave up 4 ER in his whopping career 8 IP at high A.
Complete lottery ticket.
or you could say they sold high a guy that was claimed off waivers. We could go around circles with this
Or instead of that you could say it was a salary dump in order to stay under the 257M luxury tax threshold.
Yes Jeff, that is how prospects work. But a guy with the stuff to be a plausible MLB starter, and a likely reliever even if that doesn’t pan out, is nearly always going to be worth a three years of a middle reliever.
Sandlin is clearly 100%, seeing as he was filmed throwing 100 recently. Schreiber also missed a lot of time with a muscle strain last year, and he was not the same when he came back.
All true. All trades have four phases. The initial reaction, the short term evaluation, the long term evaluation and then the historical perspective. Time will tell.
Royals are so cute. Buying and trading for a bunch of average players to win 75 (at most) this year. Finishing at least 10 games behind tigers and twins.
75 wins could well be more than the Red Sox will end up with.
The Sox are projected to win ~5 more games despite playing in a night and day more competitive division.
Role reversal trade. Usually this kind of move happens the other way around. Sandlin could wind up being a solid piece for the rotation.
Red Sox received the Royals 7th ranked prospect. A 23yo Starting Pitcher, who doesnt have to be added to the 40-man. Sandlin’s Fastball reaches 96-97mph, he has 3 other pitches and great command. The Red Sox, who currently need to reduce the number of middle relievers, traded away an unspectacular 30yo reliever they claimed off waivers.
This move is a steal for the future.
Clearing a 40 man spot for a Monty signing?
The delusional fan in me wishes so, but it’s much more likely to be for Adam Duvall, Tommy Pham, or someone else in the bench RH bat category (hopefully Duvall IMO)
probably more likely for the next BBB Breslow decides to bring in although he doesn’t seem to like them as much as Bloom did.
The 2024 Tank Red Sox
Doesn’t even free up a million off payroll. The throttle is slowly being dismantled.
The story before this one suggests Jansen is a potential DL candidate. Seems an odd move for the Red Sox.
I don’t love what the Sox have been doing. But given they are resetting for the future, I like this move a lot. Good young arm. Would have preferred Mozz tho.
Venn Diagram: people who make fun of the Dodgers for being competitive every year but having only 1 championship to show for it, people who are miserable about the Red Don’t direction after a recent World Series win, and people who say they would gladly win one world series and suck for 9 years because “RINGZ!”
Sox Offseason Haiku
Owners’ “full throttle!”
No Sale. Just Giolito.
And last place beckons.
Memo
Attn: Witty Full Throttle People
This trade is a prototypical example of how a competent General Manager builds a competitive baseball team.
Team A, which is widely seen as having a minor league system that is relatively devoid of high quality future starters, trades a somewhat effective 30-year old reliever with exactly two years of above anonymous, replacement level performance, for Team B’s Top 10 prospect, a 23-year old with top of the rotation STARTER potential, coming off a dominant, lower minors season, in which he featured both 97 mph fastball velocity and a plus slider, a nearly 5:1 k/bb ratio (6:1 at A level), and a CWS resume that includes a semifinal start where he allowed 1 run over seven innings, while striking out 12.
This is how you build a team, kiddies. Take every opportunity you can to sell high on your veterans while stockpiling high quality prospects.
Might this be the last time we ever hear the name David Sandlin ever again? No question, but that’s why they’re called prospects, and not Hall of famers.
For anyone who knows baseball, this is a solid, easily defensible acquisition for both teams.
Party on with your clever WD-40 “full throttle!” comments, though. Whenever I read one, I say to myself “there’s a baseball guy!”
Thanks, Dad, I mean KiddingRight. Agreed that this is a logical rebuild trade/gamble if you’re tearing the team down to the studs and gambling that Teel, Mayer, and Raffaela will become saviors, eventually. What sticks in my throat is that team leadership has not yet been honest. They’re “in on” or “interested” in the big free agents even as the budget is cut. Words and actions don’t align. The actions are clearly screaming rebuild. Just be honest with the fans. Worcester should be fun to watch this season. Boston, not so much.
This isn’t teardown stuff. This is every year, organic team building/team maintenance.
I get that fans are more interested in big name trades and free agent acquisitions, but this is the 365 stuff that GMs get paid for.
The reply to this is not “full throttle” – it’s not that type of transaction. The reply to this is “Glad to see Breslow is focused on cashing in his highest-value-theyll-ever-have chips for promising future value. That’s effective and laudable talent acquisition.
Kidding Right – No offense but you have NO IDEA of what you are talking about. What complete horse manure.
Winning teams are built on all-star level talent. Boston had lots of all-stars when DD was GM. Bloom eliminated all by Devers and added Jansen. This team is a mockery of what it was when Bloom got it.
GMs that focus on BS insignificant deals like this don’t keep their jobs long unless a very high percentage of the dumpster diving trades turn out well.
Breslow sucks at his job so far. He’s acquired NO all-star talent, he’s invested significant money is risky reclamation projects like Giolito and O’Neill and wasted Sale so he could get a $17MM middle infielder who might peak as an above average MLB player in over half a decade.
Effective and laudable talent? How can you possible suggest that with a straight face? Nothing close to that has happened. We’ve lost Sale and added guys who we need to toss a coin in a fountain and hope they do really really well compared to their last few years.
You must be from TB where all the crap you spewed is somewhat true about GMs. That’s not a big city market like Boston so NOTHING you said applies and only small time GMs do this 365 bs because they don’t have the money to improve their team like Breslow does.
So, get a subscription to MiLB, and watch the youngsters!!
The Sox already have a TON of young talent in the majors. This is far from waiting for the top prospects to come save the day; if anything by 2026-7 or so those will be the guys to make an already good team great.
But that’s only the tip of the ice cube. You’ve still got your DD apologists, your Chaim / Breslow haters, your Cora extreme haters, your ownership needs to sell people, your boycott the Red Sox crowd, your Theo’s back so what? club. Toss in the “How could we lose Mookie?” members, the “Last place again” spouters. Now you have a little more of the ice cube, that cold hard beverage cooler.
God forbid the Red Sox come out of the gate competing and are sitting pretty come mid season. Then you’ll have the doom and gloom collapse pessimists alongside the “I knew it all along” optomists crowing about the team’s success. And all because the glass is half fool.
That’s quite a litany–I love it!
whyhayzee – I sure wish you could have added a group called the Move Devers off 3B group. Oh well, the list was fairly comprehensive so nice job. I am a member of all the negative groups!! And proud to be a member.
TF – How is it me … the most optimistic one …. the one who keeps saying I’m waiting until end of March to judge … the one who doesn’t want a complete teardown …. the one who put together a list of things that could happen which would put the Sox in the postseason …. the one who keeps saying Devers and Yoshida aren’t bad contracts yet …. why was I the only one attacked for being “too negative”?
Things that make you go hmmmm ….
@Why, They can be said about any team’s fans. Theres always going to be naysayers, apologist and I told you so’s. And no one is going to be able to orchestrate a boycott of a team.
The team will alway’s have a lot of fans show up for the games.. Especially teams like The Dodgers, Red Sox, Yankees .
Heck 30K fans show up at Dodger Stadium just find out why the lights are on.
The Dodgers make $320M a year on their local TV revenue…
Winslow – You have to watch some of the old game footage going back to the 1960’s-1980’s. Fenway was so empty there were tumbleweeds. Even for Ted’s last game, a ton of empty seats.
It’s heading in that direction again, they are really going all out with the promotions to get people in the park.
As for the I-told-you-so’s ….. everything is in writing and can’t be edited, so it’s easy for them to prove they were right.
FPG, it’s really just the sixties. They were drawing no one to their games after Ted retired until the Impossible Dream. In fact, there was an article in (I think) Reader’s Digest about them going out of business. I remember reading it around 1965 or 1966? Here’s what was going on:
The Red Sox were lousy in the 1960s. It didn’t go unnoticed. From 1961 to 1966, the team drew less than a million fans each season. It bottomed out in 1965 when attendance was 652,201. The Red Sox lost 100 games and finished 40 games out. The next year the Red Sox were better, losing just 90 games and finishing 26 games out.
What is happening now doesn’t even remotely look like those days. But you had to live through it to understand how bad it was. And it was awful.
why – I was just an infant back then, so you’re right I am clueless about the 60’s. I would imagine not making the postseason for 20 years had something to do with it.
But I do remember the 80’s, until Clemens arrived the attendance got down to 8th-9th in the 14-team league. drawing 21-22K per game.
@Fever- That was in the 60’s like “WhyHayzee” stated. No-one was recalling drawing like they do now..
The Angels were drawing 3K to 4K in the early 70’s. Yes they were terrible but still.
LikeI said before you can’t orchestrate a boycott because a good percentage of fans go and don’t care about the politics. Or even know how or why and who is running the team and they really don’t care. They just want to go to a game.
Winslow – I agree, most people who visit Boston want to take in a game. at least once in their life without caring about how good the Sox are. But the Sox can’t rely on just out-of-towners for ticket sales, they need locals who are attracted to the team and excited about winning.
Dynamic pricing is a huge factor, it will keep attendance inflated but people will be paying pennies on the dollar for tickets and therefore won’t have the incentive to stay in their seats for very long.
They just want to go to a game.
================================
The newbies don’t want to watch unless we win a WS. The older just turn on the TV and root for the team. It’s an old-school thing.
Kidding – Wow if only ANYTHING you said was accurate Boston fans could think of this ridiculously insignificant trade as being something more!!!!
Sorry, you grossly over estimate the new pitcher.
Is the loss of Schreiber going to hurt? NOPE. He’s a league average relievers on a team that already has Jansen, Martin and Winckowski. His role was so insignificant that trading him for a prospect makes perfect sense, especially if the prospect has a higher upside. Frankly, I don’t see the higher upside but somebody on Breslow’s staff must see it.
In the end, this deal is a throwback to Bloom. It is insignificant. It is meaningless and it down grades the current skills as of today in the hope that they will be higher in a year or two. The problem is they won’t be significantly higher so frankly WHO CARES!!!
Again… if you’re gonna do it .. do it right… All the way to the slab… so I’m okay with… no one takes Story/ Raffie.. I get that ….Martin/ KJ when healthy probably.. hopefully Giagalo has quick start and can move at break…Nation who am I missing?? Yoshi?? Not unless we eat a lot of $$$ so probably not..I’ll hang up and listen for expertise…
Pivetta. Last year of arb, roughly $8m salary. Put him on the trade list if you’re stripping the team
I don’t know Gas … would much rather have Nick over Lucas?? That signing is a big head scratcher
Giolito was an opportunity signing IMO, and, I liked it. Still do.
The guy is a healthy workhorse, no major injury history, no questionable mechanics making you question when, not if, the breakdown will hit.
18m for an anchor that eats innings like its a buffet is worth it. Porcello made other guys around him better – manager could give an early hook to the other guys if they didn’t have it that day because the pen wasn’t gassed. Guys didn’t see outings lengthened to spare the pen.
There’s value in a guy who goes 6+, 7ip per start, even if his floor is as a #3/4 type, beyond his era.
At least to me.
So, let’s look at 2 outcomes:
1) giolito captures old form and sparkles. Your 18m was a STEAL. You might move him for a ransom at the deadline. He opts out, and if you didn’t trade him, both player and org are familiar and you get a leg up on a new contract. Maybe you even do an extension to waive the opt out mid-season. Worst case you get a comp pick after the QO.
2) He puts up another 4.xx showing, but, NOT one that is the fault of the poor infield defense behind him. Fly balls are a bit of an issue. You get 180-210 healthy innings with all the benefits I discussed earlier. He remains in town at the same rate, same benefits for a second season. Then, this whole 2-prong situation repeats a second time.
GA – He’s a healthy workhorse now pitching for Cora who destroys healthy workhorses. Price and Sale were healthy workhorses too. Giolito at $10MM was a good deal, at $15MM was a risk and at $20MM was a big waste of money.
FYI.. Not $18MM per season. $19.25MM. Not a big difference but $1.25MM more wasted on a workhorse instead of a SP1 or SP2. We have SP3s and SP4s and SP5s so Giolito wasn’t needed since he preempted getting a good pitcher..
Your workhorse since Sale is gone is now going to face SP1 and get killed. Sure he may pitch 6 or 7 innings in a loss but wouldn’t it have been better to have a guy who could win against good SP1? They only have so much money (not true but theoretically) and spending it on anything but a SP1 or SP2 or 3B is a waste of money.
TF – there’s leaks from front office insiders that say Henry had a different vision for this offseason budget-wise than the rest of brass, and that’s the disconnect.
Given when giolito happened, I’d buy that breslow envisioned getting BOTH Giolito and Montgomery.
You can’t control Yamamoto not wanting to even visit Boston. Given the mess bloom made, who blames him.
While I’d love an actual 3B instead of a DH at 3rd, you can only do what your boss allows.
GA – Good info. Any idea who the leak represented. It appears as if we have a few new Breslow influencers on the website today. I still have no idea if that is one of the billion EX VPs driving the media influencers and paying them or whether it’s Breslow’s group. I always believed it was Bloom trying to influence public opinion but based on the people trying to justify Breslow’s actions, I’m beginning to think the marketing department under one of the SR VPs is driving the new media influencer actions.
Your comments make me wonder if Henry has lost control of the purse strings in favor of corporate guys dictating from above to Henry. If that’s the case, then this is a lost season and a lost future. The cash cow will be a cash cow in 1st or LAST place so why spend money to win when you can rake in huge profits by losing. It’s the CUBS model that existed for years.
TF – no hints, but, it has to be someone more than an intern since they supposedly can relay the sentiments of upper level execs.
As for your last point, between Redbird, Arctos, and similar types now invested in FSG, you’re talking the hedge funds of the sports world. They want guaranteed minimums on their ROI, it’s not like your usual minority shareholders.
I’m also not aware of what the splits are in FSG these days on ownership shares. For example, the WooSox had lucchino as majority shareholder/control person, but, it wasn’t an outright control majority of 50% +1 share or more- and that’s how he got forced into a minority stake.
Henry is in a similar position from how it looks. He owns more than anyone else, but, I dont believe it is 50% +1, so, he remains in charge as long as the money flows. So, I suspect guaranteeing the return is paramount, winning is secondary to the extent it influences a greater return than it costs.
GASox – Henry owns 40%.
And yes, they definitely pivoted on their spending plans. Look back at my posts pre-January, I was very optimistic they would spend enough to contend. The Giolito contract happened before they made that pivot, no chance they spend that much to take a flyer on a reclamation project.
Olmtiant – I recently learned the real reason why they signed Gio. It’s because his grandfather was a star on Seinfeld and they wanted to have a Seinfeld-themed bobblehead giveaway featuring Gio.
Fever, was that 40% affected by the Arctos money Theo brought in and they flipped into funding the PGA stuff though?
There had to be some dilution of ownership in the process, although, who knows who lost out.
olm – I’m surprised you’re so negative about the Red Sox, I’ve never seen you like this!
There’s an old saying, don’t throw the baby away with the bath water.
Fever, the question which olm picks up on is this: won’t the bathwater be cold by the time Henry tries to put the baby in it? If so, you may as well just toss it now.
In real life, the question becomes whether Henry will allow the necessary spending before certain contracts run out. If the answer is no, you move the players now to extract what value you can.
Bloom famously wouldnt spend to win, preferring to attempt reclamations, BUT, let the true assets run out the clock on their value ending up with little to nothing in exchange. Smart move for breslow is to not do the same.
GASox – You could be right, but realistically none of us knows for certain what has transpired in the Sox front office to cause them to become massive cheapskates.
For instance a lot of people are now repeating reports that Bloom wanted to acquire talent at last year’s deadline but Henry suddenly and unexpectedly told Bloom there would be no more spending on the 2023 team.
As with most things, I don’t believe it’s a black-or-white situation. I think Bloom shares the blame with Henry for the past 4 years.
Seems like the plan all along was to lower the payroll through attrition. Whether that can be called ‘tanking” is debatable, but they didn’t really have a massive selloff which is typical of tanking.
If Bello and/or Casas has a monster season this year, it will be very interesting to see if the Sox try to lock up either with a longterm extension.
Fever my guy no way!! Brais would befriend me!! It’s quite obvious ( even I can tell) it’s a major rebuild… I can’t remember in my life time such a low star studded team.( very young talent) I’m saying just do it all the way.. KJ and Martin probably next.. let’s really see what we got… as for the negative vibe… as I said to boycott boy… fair weather is not in my vocabulary!!!! ( as for throwing out baby… my father would have gotten a hernia with me( 9lb 13 oz!!)
Olm – Wow you were heavy as a baby! Do you have siblings and if so were they equally as big? Now you’ve got me wondering how much I weighed when born!
I guess it depends what you consider a major rebuild. Players on the final year of their contract don’t qualify in my opinion. I would love for Story to have a strong start to the season and then get traded at the deadline, but other than him I’d really like to keep Casas, Duran, Yoshida, Pivetta at the least.
Totally agree with you on the lack of stars, I”ll be doing a lot of reminiscing on this the 20th anniversary of the greatest baseball season in my life!
Hell ya keep all the kids that you mentioned.. Yoshi is here unless we eat $$$.. I also like pivetta.. again you guys are the experts.. I want to try and see a Cubs team that Theo started putting together ( young talent) and then boom Johnny L / Arretta etc etc. it was ugly but 2016 was the reward… I don’t think the Nation is going to be okay with last place finish’s much longer or at all but if that’s what CB is trying to do then do it 100%… to me 83 wins or 73 doesn’t matter if They know what we have and what we’ll need going forward… Man Boston has always had plenty of superstars to root for but this is tough..( I mean possibly All stars) .. I loved the O’Learys/ Reeds/ Valentin’s ( big fan of John V!!/ etc but we also had Pedro’s/ Hitdogs / Nomars Etc……… So no must be mailman kid…( dad was a butcher) traced back well over 200 years.. uncle on mom side maybe 6 ft(never met him) 6.5… 3 bills… a baby John Candy…youngest of 4… brother 5 years older… when he was in 8 I was wearing his hamedowns in 3 rd grade..big Chicago cubs Fan… glad he got one in 16
Olm – Valentin was the first Sox player to give me his bat! It was during batting practice in Toronto, this was before the Sox became super popular. I’m looking at it right now, 125 Louisville Slugger R206 and it’s 33″ long.
I also have the ticket stub from the 1999 playoff game when the Sox scored a postseason record 23 runs and Johnny Val had 4 hits and drove in 7 runs!
And guess what?
TODAY IS JOHNNY’S 57th BIRTHDAY!
HAPPY BIRTHDAY JOHNNY VALENTIN!!!!
HAPPY BIRTHDAY JOHNNY!!!!
Great memories!!!
1999 was a great year for Red Sox games in my family.
Took my dad to his last game and got to sit in the Sheraton Suite to watch the game. Hadn’t been in the luxury boxes before then and wow what a view diagonally angled toward the infield down the left field line. Perfect weather and a win. Doesn’t get much better than that. Couple that with watching Ted at the all-star game that year and it remains one of the best Red Sox seasons for our family.
Troll/ fever now that’s good stuff… went to all star weekend at Wrigley ( year?) sis was secretary at entemens bakery and me and nephew had a blast( big Pete rose fan and Mets) still a good kid… didn’t meet anyone crazy except and if you know this person I know you guys are baseball nuts like me….Ed Randell ( use to have baseball show taking baseball with Ed Randell…) when I asked for photo and autograph he looked at me like I was joshing him… so now the Brais thing became a little clearer for you… not sur but was 99 season the year of the Shooter?? My brother was a Rod Beck fan and I remember game going into extra innings… we brought in Rod and my brother ( at bar long game) stated shooterrrr… the shooterrr!!! I tried to tell him he’s not as good as when he was a cubby… BS you’ll see… first / second pitch to Bernie W… and well you know the rest
Turns out he wasn’t lying a after all….full throttle for last place
Funny all the Royal fans getting giddy over D level signings.
The Red Sox seem to have an affinity for trading with the Royals. What’s up with that?
Insane – The trades for Franchy and Mondesi worked out so well for the Red Sox, didn’t they?
Yup, the Franchy trade was quite the heist.
You joke, but even with hindsight these trades don’t look bad.
Winckowski came over in the Benintendi trade, and he could very well end up being more valuable than the two years of average-ish LF they traded away to get him. And he’s not the only prospect left from that deal either – Gambrell (#36 prospect) is going to start the year in the AAA rotation, for example, and while he likely won’t make an impact at the MLB level, you never know.
The Sox traded Josh Taylor for Mondesi, who missed a lot of 2023 with injury too and ended up puting up 0 WAR in KC. 5.06 xERA over 17.2 IP… Two injured players traded for each other and neither ends up doing anything. Oh well?
KC still has two years of Taylor, but Mondesi also had the much higher ceiling if he was able to take the field. Perfectly reasonable gamble to take, given how little was given up and how terrible the middle infield situation ended up being. Mondesi would have made a HUGE difference last year if his knee cooperated.
Not – Winck didn’t come from the Royals, he came from the Mets. We are talking about players traded from the Royals to the Sox.
As for Mondesi, it would have been a reasonable gamble for a team that could afford it but NOT for a team that was pinching pennies.
That $3M they wasted on Mondesi could have been used to acquire a decent pitcher before the season or at the trade deadline. You don’t take gambles like that when the budget is extremely tight.
FPG – the Benintendi trade involved both the Mets and the Royals. Winckowski came from the Mets, but only because Lee from the Royals went back to the Mets after the Mets inserted themselves because they preferred Lee (who has since been released, lol) and the Sox preferred Winckowski.
Mondesi only cost $3 million last year; the money really wasn’t an issue. You are not realistically going to be able to sign more than a middle reliever with that kind of money, and the Sox were ~$7-8 million under the tax line anyway of $3 million was really going to move the needle.
I would argue that gambles like that are a *great* thing to do when the budget is tight, because you don’t have the money for a sure thing, and a reliable guy making $3 million probably won’t be an upgrade over the guys already on the roster. It makes more sense to chase the ceiling.
Mondesi has been like a 3 WAR/ 600 PA guy for his career with excellent defense at SS. Even with his health struggles, it’s hard to regret trading a middle reliever with a bad back for what looked like part of a year of that guy. If he had panned out, that would have been massive for a team that got -0.7 fWAR out of 2B/SS.
Winc alone makes that a good trade. And we still have 3 other middling guys that might one day make the BP.
@I.M. I’m guessing the Royals GM is myopic and he THOUGHT he was acquiring John Schneider and Cathrine Bach would be thrown in as the babe to named later in the deal.
RED SOX — W/L prospects for 2024 is about the same as it was on Dec 1.
They added Gio, McNeill & Grissom; subtracted Verdugo, Sale & Schreiber from the 25 man roster. The rest is window dressing and future assets. Which leads me to repeat what I said on Dec 1: They need to sign Monty and obtain a 2d SP — move Whitlock & Houck to the pen. The Monty situation reminds me of JD back in Feb 2018. Even Boras comes back to earth when there are no other credible bidders.
100% correct. I’m okay with the moves. I think we got younger and cheaper, without getting worse.
But also without getting currently better. We need Monty, and will likely need him even in five years.
Breslow thinks Montgomery is coming here on a Minor League Contract LOL
AL – There is nothing drawing Monty to Boston. He could have a second home in Wellsley and he’s not coming to Boston for the springtime!!
Guessing what Boras is going to advise his clients is wasted energy. The client has final say and sometimes they over ride what Boras says as Bogey did when he signed for $20MM with DD and sometimes Boras dictates to the less experienced guys. Monty has bee around long enough that he wants to go to a contender. There is no contender in Boston thanks to Bloom.
I would much rather go after an actual ace next winter. The SP class looks amazing.
Montgomery is fine, but he’s also going to get wrecked by robo umps and doesn’t fit the timeline very well. So, a long-term deal doesn’t make a lot of sense. If he gets desperate as his market collapses wants to sign a 3/75, by all means.
Nice move for both.
Royals are playing to win
Red Sox obviously rebuilding with a nice 22 year throwing 95-97
sacrifice – Should value ever enter into the evaluation of a trade or should trades happen because one team is going in one direction and the other team is going in a different direction so the trade makes sense regardless of the value of the players?
The Royals look comfortably worse on paper than the Sox do, and the Sox have enough RP depth that this trade doesn’t really hurt them this year. It’s basically trading a surplus piece for a prospect in an area of need. That’s something you do regardless of how good the team is.
One less guy Cora has to use incorrectly….. but he will find someone else.
Or one less guy Cora can use on his short list of mediocre pitching. This game can go two ways. It’s pretty clear they didn’t give Cora many great relief options and they still aren’t.
He has made some dumb calls, I’m not disagreeing, but our short list of pitchers the last few years has been abysmal. The fact we held onto Brasier so long last year was ludicrous.
Maybe you or maybe not, but can’t stand how some fans attack Cora laterally for what he does when their real issue isn’t his moves but the cheating scandal. They use Cora as a punching bag and excuse for everything. For those fans, just admit you hate him for what he did, not how he manages.
You can hate Cora for both.
Don’t forget beyond his pitching handling his gems like 2019 ST, or plethora of playing guys out of position, which includes insisting Kiki could handle SS when all the data said he’s stink worse than legal sea foods’ dumpster.
Absolutely you can hate him for both, but I feel many here are biased just because of the scandal. What they don’t (want to) remember is that Cora won us 2018 when our relief pitching was faltering near the end of the season and we wouldn’t have even gotten far in 2021 without his “stupid” decisions.
Seeing faults is fine, but underlooking his accomplishments because they concentrate on just the scandal is wrong.
Cooper – So true. The pecking order of the bull pen was Jansen, Martin and Winckowski so Schreiber was expendable.
I have to assume either Breslow or someone new to the coaching staff recommended this kid who did NOT pitch well at Oklahoma and got drafted in the 11th round by the Royals in 2022. Since then he’s pitched at the lower levels of the minors and hasn’t been outstanding enough to recognize as a guy with potential so there must be a personal connection to one of the new coaches or Breslow.
This kid played 1 season at Oklahoma with a 5.59 ERA. Sane people don’t trade Schreiber for a guy with such crap credentials. Somebody has to know the kid or this makes absolutely no sense.
Ugh… why are we getting rid of pitchers who are actually decent and replacing them with the likes of Cooper Crispies or whatever his name is. At first, I was thinking Breslow was just trying to get good arms, but this makes little sense to me. So much has been inconsistent this year through word of mouth, reporters, and deals… I don’t know what to expect at all anymore.
The pipeline on the pitching side is drier than the Sahara, and John Henry is clutching his pursestrings tighter than a depression era old maid at the church donation box.
He’s trying to get some arms to develop any way he can. Hopefully in 2-3 years it leads to something.
Redsox Nation is BOYCOTTING EVERYTHING REDSOX until they spend accordingly on ACEs.
Games or concessions at Fenway NO
Games or consessions at Fenway South No
Games or concessions at Salem Redsox No
Games on NESN No
Subscription to Boston Globe No
MLB Ticket streaming services No
Merchandise Definitely Not as at this point it’s embarrassing for Redsox Nation to wear them in competitive MLB. When you spend your time & money on a team Redsox Nation Built John Henry we will resume spending our time & money as well. Until then reap what you’ve sewn. Taking top dollars from us for little in return demonstrates your complete lack of respect for those fans & families who built this Redsox Nation & Team over 124 years and many generations. Good Day Sir
Shadoobee Shattered Shattered…
Ticket and concessions prices are set by what people are willing to pay. No business is going to lower prices out of charity because they can afford to.
I never implied otherwise. It’s obviously not “set prices at the maximum price any people are willing to pay”. It’s “set prices such that we make the most money” …which is of course directly related to what people are willing to pay, and which really should have been all that needed to be said on the matter.
My comment relates to “Taking top dollars from us for little in return demonstrates your complete lack of respect for those fans & families who built this Redsox Nation & Team over 124 years and many generations”.
It’s the same tired comment that Fenway has the highest ticket prices in the league so fans deserve big shiny free agents or we will be ANGERY
Way to go Bredlow that Single A pitcher should be a big help this year. Another bullseye for Breslow.
AL – But JoeBrady says he throws hard so we need him!!! hahaha
The guy was average to bad at Oklahoma. He did average to bad at the low levels of the minors.
Naturally that makes him better than our 4th or 5th best reliever. You can argue that giving up a reliever who is not critical is fine when your organization has no direction and no leadership but shouldn’t you return someone with a bit more upside other than he throws hard?
Much like all of Breslow’s moves so far, this is a step backwards not forwards.
We traded away a decent reliever from an under staffed bullpen and we got a bad college player who failed at his low minors debut and is now coming to Boston because he throws hard.
That’s a step backward in my eyes much like adding Giolito was a step backwards because we didn’t get a SP1 with the money. Just like adding O’Neill was a step backwards when we didn’t get a SP1 we got an iffy OF where we are really deep in young talent. The Sale deal was yet another step backwards since Sale was the ONLY guy on the roster who could compete with SP1s until he gets hurt. Now we have nobody but we have a lot of years of control on a solid hitting weak fielding bad base running no power and no speed 2B.
Will Grissom’s $17MM cost ever be realized in $17MM worth of performance above the alternatives we have at 2B?
The last four years has seen one guy remove the core of the team through attrition and replace it with over priced less talented personnel. Now our new GM is standing still and watching all the birds of prey land right in front of him and then fly away without getting off a shot!!! Reclamation projects typically don’t turn a player into a star, they give him a nice bounce back year followed by mediocre results. The objective of these deals is to show how smart you are as GM by FIXING a broken player but it’s not sustained in later years so who cares? Why not turn guys like Rafaela, Teel, Casas, Duran, Abreu, Anthony and even Grissom into more than just league average players. Put the resources into the home town guys and BUY the all-stars needed to build the foundation of the team.
This is so small time behavior it infuriates all of us who pay big prices for tickets, parking, food, merchandise and even NESN..
The experience of Fenway is like the experience of Wrigley FIeld. It’s a slogan for owners who don’t give a damn about the fans and just want to line their pockets with money. I watched for years in Chicago and now I’m seeing it in Boston and it’s appalling.
But JoeBrady says he throws hard so we need him!!!
=========================
Dude, it’s a short thread. How could you get that wrong? You know I never said that.. I do like the trade, mostly on the fit. but I don’t know Sandlin’s velocity. I know what he tops out at, but don’t know if it’s sustainable for 6-7 innings.
But, as always, I am willing to wager that Sandlin will have a higher 6-year bWAR than Schreiber will have over the next three years.
HEY GUYS AT MLBTR, WHEN YOU RENEW AN ARTICLE BECAUSE A SENTENCE OR TWO HAS BEEN ADDED OR CHANGED, COULD YOU MAKE THE COLOR OF THE PRINT DIFFERENT, LIKE SAY, BLUE. THEN WE WOULD KNOW WHY WE WERE READING THIS A SECOND TIME. THANKS FOR YOUR CONSIDERATION.
Why are we yelling?
Jack Leiter would work 🙂
I could see that working, but I’m not completely sure what Breslow’s preferred profile is.
At this point Breslow seems to work with big arms the one exception is Fritts but White doesn’t seem like the kind of guy Breslow would target.
Don’t laugh. I think Leiter and Rocker have completely dropped off the map, but still have potential.. If I were Texas, in win-now mode, and with a payroll cap, Martin + $9M for either Rocker or Leiter will at least get us a return call.
Joe, do you mean Jansen + $9m?? Martin only is slated to make $7.5m in the final year of his deal.
Martin. I didn’t look at the contract. That’s a heck of a signing. I doubt Jansen would interest them as much since they signed Robertson.
The Rangers are still very high on both Leiter and Rocker but they have lots of depth so they have a few that have moved in front of them. I don’t think that suggests they are expendable, I think it only suggests they are incredibly deep at pitching and getting deeper all the time. Chris Young is a phenomenal GM. With Carter and Langford as potential starters in their outfield, they were drafted in 2020 and 2023!!!
We got Yorke with a much earlier pick than they got Carter!!!
Good drafting matters.
I don’t consider the TX farm deep at all, especially in pitching. But what the prospects that they do have are incredibly high. Langford has just chopped up three levels of the minors.
Having been a Red Sox fan for over 60 years … this isn’t that bad.
I have lived through far worse teams, far worse managers, far worse front offiice, far worse ownership.
That said, I hope they’re competitive this year. I guess we’ll find out.
Won’t we?
Same here. I’ll be disappointed if Henry doesn’t put some money on the table, but I have lived thru far, far worse.
Joe – I get what you’re saying about worse ownership, even though it was before my time I know you’re probably talking about Frazee. Doesn’t it feel to you like déjà vu all over again with Henry? The events are eerily similar. Both owners won a couple championships shortly after taking over the team. Both owners lost interest in winning and got rid of superstar players to help fund other financial interests. At least Mookie wasn’t traded to the Yankees, right?
If we look at this from a pure roster building it makes sense. Sure Schreiber is pretty good out of the pen but Boston has a quite a few decent bullpen arms or potential bullpen arms. The Bullpen has 8 spots on a 26 man roster to start the year so let’s look at that currently you have:
Jansen, Martin, Wink, Bernadino, one of maybe both of Houck or Whitlock that’s 5 or 6 right there. Breslow traded for Slaten and he falls under rule so barring injury he’s going to make the staff plus they are going to have another lefty so one of Luetge, Murphy or Jacques probably makes it. So that leaves on slot assuming one of Houck or Whitlock makes the rotation. The Red Sox have at least 5 or 6 guys vying for the last position in the pen including out of options Mata.
The point is it was a crowded bullpen picture anyway the loss of Schreiber is unlikely to change the Red Sox final W-L record in any meaningful way. Schreiber was expendable and they added a young arm that throws in the upper 90’s with decent secondaries and sounds like a perfect candidate for Breslow’s pitching factory. In short it’s a loss that can easily be plugged by another arm and they get a high upside arm in return it makes perfect sense.
Bruin – It was a crowded bullpen as long as Jansen and/or Martin aren’t traded, and Whitlock/Houck/Winch aren’t used in the starting rotation.
If this trade is a prelude to the Sox signing Monty or Snell, then it makes a lot more sense.
Fever I don’t think those guys are getting traded until the deadline. I’m not expecting Monty to walk through the door but really looking at the deal it makes a lot more sense than originally on the surface. Breslow traded a guy that is unlikely to change the Red Sox fate in any way for a big arm that is coming into his own. The deal makes sense on numerous levels.
Bruin – I definitely agree on Jansen, no team will touch him until he proves he’s healthy.
But Martin? I wouldn’t be surprised if they trade him this week. As good as he’s been, he’s not part of the Red Sox future because of his age therefore he’s expendable to ownership.
For those of who pint to how bad Sandlin was at Oklahoma in another article he talked about how much his stuff has evolved since becoming a pro. His fastball sat in the low 90’s at Oklahoma but has taken a large leap forward to mid to high 90’s as a pro. He also throws a lot of strikes. So you are talking about a guy who throws really hard with decent secondaries who is perfect clay for the Breslow pitching lab. This deal makes a lot of sense.
It’s also worth noting that Oklahoma is not exactly a pitchers’ paradise. Cade Horton was drafted 1/7 and is ranked #25. He had a 4.86 ERA against Sandlin’s 5.59.
It’s also worth noting that Horton finished off in the college WS with a 13/0 K/W and 2 ERs in 7.1 IPs. Sandlin finished with a 12/1 K/W and 1 ER in 7 IPs.
Numbers have to be taken in context.
Joe – Context? Is that what you did or did you cherry pick yet again?
The guy was blah at Oklahoma and now his fastball is much faster? Undetectable steroids? How is the size of his head?
The kid is not a future all-star. He’s probably not an above league average reliever so he may end up in the minors for years or be the 13th pitcher on a future Red Sox team or somewhere else.
Great pick-up. We should stand and applaud Breslow’s cleverness to steal such a fine future reliever.
Spinning things is your forte so it’s not surprising you turned this piece of crap into having a bright future. He’s a guy who is comparable to many, many league average potential players.
I’lll bet you he’ll never make the all-star team? Lets make the deal that you stay off the website 4 months each year he is not an all-star and I stay off 4 months if he is.
Come on this is a far better deal for you than the one you offered me earlier. Lets agree.
Well Troll we now know for sure that Breslow is operating under a strict budget since Kennedy came right out yesterday and I quote Breslow is working with “set parameters in terms of the budget” coupled with last months gem “ payroll is likely to be reduced from last year”. There’s also a recent article where Breslow himself seems to take a crack at ownership vaguely alluding to what he thought was a more full throttle budget when he was brought on.
There is no longer an argument this on ownership. Breslow is just working within a clearly ownership mandated budget. The only question now was Bloom also under the same budgetary constraints?
We do have the caveat that Pedey apparently called in and face timed the brass imploring ownership to spend more that there was still impact players available. You gotta love that guy wears his heart on his sleeve and he bleeds Red Sox even in retirement, he was apparently very vocal yesterday.
The Royals can’t seem to develop pitchers but, I think the Royals regret this trade in a couple years.