2023 was a difficult season for the Red Sox as the club suffered a second consecutive fifth-place finish in the AL East with an identical 78-84 record to their disappointing 2022 campaign. With that being said, rookie first baseman Triston Casas served as a bright spot in the otherwise tough season as he rode a blistering second half to a third place finish in AL Rookie of the Year voting. Prior to the 2023 season, Casas expressed interest in an extension that would keep him in Boston beyond his years of club control, which run through the 2028 season. At the time, he indicated that there had been no such discussions with Red Sox brass, though he struck a different tone in a scrum with reporters (including MLB.com’s Ian Browne) today.
“Of course we have,” Casas told reporters when asked if the sides have talked extension yet. Casas went on to add that while he hopes to stay a member of the Red Sox “forever,” “nothing enticing” had been offered offered to him at this point. Casas decline to get into specifics when asked what sort of contract he would consider, though he noted his goal is a deal that would leave himself and his family “set for the rest of [his] life.”
As a player with just over one year of service time, any extension for Casas would figure to cover his five remaining seasons of team control while also extending Boston’s window of control beyond that. One obvious comp for Casas would be first baseman and former Red Sox prospect Anthony Rizzo, who signed a six-year $40.5MM extension with the Cubs early in the 2013 season that covered the 2014-2019 campaigns. That deal included options and escalators that allowed it to max out at $73MM over eight years. With that being said, there’s several reason to expect Casas to earn significantly more on an extension than Rizzo did. That contract was signed over a decade ago, and while Rizzo was about a year younger at the time of the deal than Casas is now, he had done far less to establish himself as a big league caliber bat.
Entering the 2013 season, Rizzo had hit just .245/.324/.402 in 136 games for his career with an exactly league average wRC+ of 100. Meanwhile, Casas has slashed an impressive .263/.367/.490 (129 wRC+) in 132 games last year and sports a nearly identical 128 wRC+ for his career. While Rizzo’s pedigree as a former top-50 prospect in the sport lent credence to his ability to improve as he entered his mid-twenties, Casas having proved himself as an above-average offensive player in the majors should allow him to earn significantly more even before considering the nearly eleven years of inflation separating the two deals.
So, what sort of deal could make sense for Casas and the Red Sox? Looking at more recent comparisons, Pirates third baseman Ke’Bryan Hayes was another former first-round pick entering his second full seasons in the majors when he signed an eight-year, $70MM extension with Pittsburgh two years ago. While Hayes’s ability to offer elite defense at the hot corner gives him a considerably higher floor than Casas (who is generally considered to be a fringy defender at first base), Casas offers significantly more offensive ability than Hayes, who owned a roughly league-average slash line of just .280/.340/.432 (106 wRC+) in the big leagues at the time of his extension. Casas is also a year younger than Hayes was at the time of his extension, meaning he’d hit free agency ahead of his age 29 season if not extended beyond his current club control.
Given Casas’s relative youth and significant offensive talent, an extension in a similar ballpark to Hayes’s extension with the Pirates could make sense in spite of his lack of defensive value. While the Red Sox have indicated that they expect payroll to be lower in 2024 than it was last year, an extension for Casas would figure to hardly put a dent in the club’s books for the 2024 season, as pre-arbitration extensions tend to escalate salaries over the course of the deal. A deal locking up Casas could also allow Boston to have a potential franchise cornerstone in place long-term as the club’s other young players and prospects, such as Marcelo Mayer, Ceddanne Rafaela, and Roman Anthony, begin to reach and establish themselves at the big league level over the next few years.
might happen if Casas is willing to sign for 1 yr past his arbitration for about 3 million. It is all John Henry can afford
John Henry is going to have to open up that pocketbook at some point, these young guys are looking like they’re going to pan out, and will be pieces to build around a championship team with.
One additional factor need to be considered if comparing to Rizzo, Rizzo’s glove. That said, is Casas’ bat considered as highly as I think it is? If so, an amazing offer needs to be made to get him to consider signing as compared to going year to year. His bat should play well during his arb years.
Or he will just trade them for more prospects as soon as they get close to free agency. Rinse, lather, repeat.
Chaim Breslow’s Purse,
A constant retooling, especially for a big market team like the Red Sox, would be a real shame for the sport. Leave that to actual small market teams like the Brewers, Guardians and Rays.
I’m not saying I agree with it but I think it’s what’s happening at the moment.
Across : Let’s hope Henry & co opens up the wallet on some of the young guys. But remember they envy the Ray’s so that means no extension trade them away and start over. A dollar saved is a dollar earned. Lol
It can work to am extent to trade players and build up the farm, but at some point they will need to build around a core or else it will be a revolving door. I don’t think our rebuild is there yet and we do need to build the farm, though we can’t get too caught up in building the farm that we see the forest for the trees.
Purse: They been rebuilding for 4 years!! Let’s be realistic not every farmhand is going to be an impact mlb player. You need balance . Like keeping guys that are worth keeping. Signing impact players and trades . Who wants to have a team with the good players only stay for a cup of coffee.
As I said, it works to an extent. You do need impact players as well.
What Bloom was doing wasn’t exactly a rebuild, or at least not the right way. He tried to go halfway and that didn’t work.
how far to open the wallet is no longer henry’s call. the “& co” is fenway sports group which includes multiple stakeholders such a hedge funds who see the red sox as just one of several revenue streams
B Dog and dasit -GREAT POINTS!!!!
Casas control years:
2024 – Pre-arb 2
2025 – Pre-arb 3
2026 – ARB 1
2027 – ARB 2
2028 – ARB 3
2029 – Free Agency
Here is the challenge!! At age 24 in 2024 he is completely controlled for 2 years and his pay should be below $1MM each year. Then, based on how well he does in 2024 and 2025 he will get an initial arbitration number.in 2026. Mookie jumped from less than $1MM to $10.5MM during ARB 1. Then he got $20.1MM in arb 2 and $27MM in arb 3. He was a monster success story and it’s unlikely Casas will be as good as Mookie. Devers went from under $1MM as pre-arb 3 to $4.575MM as arb 1. Less than half of what Mookie got years earlier. By Arb 2 Devers got $11.2MM almost $10MM less than Mookie several years earlier. By Arb 3 Devers got $17.5MM or around $10MM less than Mookie. When Bloom signed Devers he pushed $5MM into his Arb 3 season as a bonus to lower his AAV for the 10 years.
So during Mookie’s 3 arb years he made $57.6MM which translates to $19.2MM during his 3 arb years. Devers during his 3 arb years $33.275MM or $11.1MM per year during his arb years. Mookie then signed a $36MM a year deal in lAD after averaging 19.2 during his Arb years. Devers signed a $31.35MM deal after averaging $11.1MM.
To show just how horrible Devers deal is – He upped his pay by $20MM from his arb years while Mookie upped his pay by $17MM. The key difference is that Mookie had won a MVP, been invited to 3 all-star games, won 3 gold gloves 2 silver sluggers and finish 6th and 8th in the MVP voting during his arbitration eligible years. Devers was invited to 2 all-star games, won 2 silver slugger awards and finished 11, 14 and 21 in the MVP voting during his arbitration years.
The numbers show that Mookie earned his big contract and Devers did NOT. As far as Casas goes, his arbitration years will be 2026 to 2028. If a contract is offered to him in 2024 then it will include two seasons that SHOULD cost $1MM or less per year. The next three years will reflect how close his 2024 and 2025 performances mimic Devers or Mookie. If he’s similar to Devers which seems far more likely his first year of arbitration could be around $5MM. Then in year two it should jump like Devers did and go to around $12MM and finish at roughly $20MM per year in arb 3. That means for the next 5 years it’s likely Casas will make $2MM+$5MM+$12MM+$20MM or roughly $39MM until he gets to free agency. If he’s an all-star quality player by 2029 then he’ll make $30MM or more. If he’s simply above league average he’ll make $20 to $25MM.
So here are the key questions to find answers to:
1 – What years should this premature offer cover?
a – years leading up to free agency
b – Arbitration years and 1 to 3 free agency years
c – Pre=arb, arb and 5 free agency years at $25MM per year
2 – Should there be less money offered with opt outs for the player? If so, when during the 3 scenarios above
3 – Any incentives on top of this for making the all-star team, winning a gold glove, winning a silver slugger or finishing in the top 10 in the MVP voting.
Lots of things to consider and knowing this ownership group they are going to want a home town discount.
Personally, I would wait until the end of the his pre-arb years. Then as a 26 year old I would offer him 8 years taking him through his 33 year old season and I would offer him $165MM for his 8 seasons based on $37MM for his arbitration years and $25MM per year for 5 other seasons. If he surpasses Devers in performance before his pre-arb years end then I would up the $25MM per year to $30MM so the new package would be $190MM for 8 years.
Offering Casas anything before his pre-arb years are over seems dumb. He’s going to receive less than $1MM those years and if you want to make him happy with the deal in 2026 give him a Bonus that hits the 2025 books like Bloom did with Devers. If the kid can’t live off $1MM a year for the next two years to prove himself, there is something wrong.
If he signs an extension it would have to be 2-4 extra years of control IMO. Maybe 1-2 extra years and 2 options at the end with a decent signing bonus with some escalators and bonus for things like top 5-10 mvp votes and maybe PAs at 400, 450, 500 and 550. 300k, 300k, 400k and 500k for PAs and 3M for a MVP 1M for 2nd place and 100k less from 3rd-10th. Im not a sox fan but for me i think a player who is giving up years of control at a reduced cost, while nice to have the guaranteed 60m-80m over 7-9 years, it really lowers there earning power. So thats why the bonuses of up to 1.5m every year for PAs is nice
Randy – The team desperately needs to generate some good PR, maybe they’ll do it by signing Casas to an extension.
“I think that there are people in this organization who are genuinely embarrassed by the way the offseason unfolded, by the product they’re going to be putting on the field this year, by the fact that we’re going into a season kind of knowing that they’re going to finish last,” Tomase said on “Arbella Early Edition” Friday. “I think people are legitimately embarrassed.”
Fever, unless Henry cares, what difference will it make. Time will tell if Theo actually has Sox input.
Well, they’re in the best division in baseball with 4 other playoff quality teams… seems like a bad time to go all in on big signings.
Case – That’s the thing it’s not really a big signing. It’s a long signing in hopes of getting his 5 control years and more but the money needs to reflect reality. His 2 pre-arb years are less than $2MM in total. His 3 arbitration years will be under $40MM so a contract not including any years of free agency is roughly $42MM or less for 5 years. That’s an AAV of $8.4MM per years. That doesn’t break the bank. If you add FA years at $25MM per year you could go 9 years for $142MM that takes him to age 33. The AAV on that one is roughly $15.8MM. Can the Red Sox afford to bump a guy from under $1MM to $15.8MM for the next 9 years? Thanks to Devers, Yoshida and Story I’d say that’s not a smart move at this time.
Wait 2 years when he’s arbitration eligible. That buys Breslow 2 years to get his act together and change ownership’s mind about trying to compete again. It also allows for a year or two more of FA years in the contract.
I still think Casas has a Freddie Freeman upside. At least being a consistent plus hitter season to season. But if I’m him I’d bet on having one more year of improving production before signing an extension. All it would take is a hot first 3-4 months of the season to drive up the price considerably.
Freddie is getting better with age, something that rarely happens in sports.
Casas career WAR 2.3, Freeman career WAR 55.7. Better chance of Casas becoming a Pete Alonzo or an Eric Hosmer then a Freddie Freeman
If he became a Pete Alonso, that would be a good problem to have.
Alonso is a good comparison although Alonso has more power at the expense of average. Casas has the potential to be a .300 hitter with more power than FF. That said, Casas needs to improve his defense in 24. Finally, if the Sox are in fact willing to seriously consider an extension (until a contract is signed, I don’t give ownership the benefit of the doubt), this is the time to pay him more early and then less than normal in later years. They have the tax room now and while such is based on averages, they also seem cheaper than years ago in actual dollars. Both seem important to ownership as they move forward in their conglomerate plans.
Freeman? Ha! Casas is the new Lou Gehrig.
Freeman is HOF bound. Pump the brakes.
So Anthony Volpe isn’t the next Joe Di?
That’s a heck of a comp. Freddie is on a hall of fame tract.
Younger Freeman, not the freak he is now.
Exactly. Similar to how Sox fans see a young Mookie in RC. Not saying he’s HOF material but the comparisons are there.
dewey – Well if everyone is doing all these comparisons, I’m doubling down on Duran being the new Young Ellsbury.
I look forward to watching Casas solidify himself as the most dangerous and best hitter in the Red Sox lineup. He has that rare 30 plus homer power .300 batting average and .400 obp upside. He’s the kind of guy you want to build the offense around. Get this done Breslow show the fan base the Red Sox are serious about the future of this franchise.
Bruin – I’m with you on Casas, and I’ve put my money on it.
$60 for Casas to win MVP
$60 for Casas to be the MLB Homerun Champion
Longshots I know, but worth the gamble IMO.
They won’t come to anything. Then, when he is an established star, he will refuse to do anything and be a free agent
Better chances of signing Judge in 10 years.
Casas has power and could attain a .270 average. He’s limited defensively but all and all it would make sense for the Red Sox to lock him up with an extension. Then again, he’s not a free agent until 2029 so the extension would have to be for 6-7 years at least.
Casas upside is higher than a .270 average. He knows the strike zone.
Could attain a .270? He hit .291 with a .917 OPS from May 1 until the end of the season last year.
Ketch – Love to see it but we have a very small sample size.
He hit .269 in the minors and so far he’s hit .254 in the majors.
He never had a season in the minors where he hit over .284 so to me that’s his ceiling in the majors until he surpasses it for a season.
Streaks are great but they don’t reflect the player accurately. If you count 12 games for Kiki Hernandez and he would have been a HOFer but his other 11 years makes him a guy who is borderline MLB level talent and nothing more than a utility player in the MLB.
So lets hope Casas follows his break=out with a second break-out and not a sophomore slump. The books on him will be much thicker going into 2024 so we need to see if he can make the adjustments to keep improving his game.
TF – I’ve said this elsewhere, I really think Casas was rushed to the majors. He will continue to improve as a hitter, after having just a little more than 2 years in the minors.
Bello/Casas/Duran/ .. now is the time…pennies on the dollar… like we did with Petey/ Youk… Astros did and that’s why so good so long.. that and maybe playing bongos on garbage cans but seriously if this is the direction then must consider or the possibility of another home grown superstar leaving (not named Braiser) sorry old habit
I’m still not sold on Bello. He almost seems overrated in the eyes of Boston fans.
olmtiant – Pennies on the dollar. Hmmmm. is that because they are all guys that are pre-arb making less than $1MM a year for the next several years? Do you want to bump that number in hopes they will be so thankfull when their arbitration years are over they’ll take way less than standard pay for free agents?
I really think the best time to offer longer contracts to young players is after they establish themselves during their pre-arb years like Mookie and Devers did. Then, if they are guys worth keeping, add up their likely arbitration years and then figure out how many FA years you want in the deal and at what price and make the offer.
Yup like I said… I’ll hang up and listen to experts.. makes sense just worry now days with free agency close after arb years they wait it out and seek FA like Mookie/ judge etc and some cases Devers…
oimtiant – If the player chooses not to take a deal that locks him in for years when he is an ARB 1 then one of two things are happening:
1 – The offer for his FA years is way below his expected market price when he gets to free agency
2 – He’s on a non contender and wants to wait and sign with a contender.
I’m sure there are many more reasons but those two jumped out as most likely.
Frankly, as a guy going into arbitration, I think they will be open to the longer deal. By the end of arb 2 you are in trouble if you haven’t signed him. So there is about a one year window, maybe a year and a half after he reaches arbitration to get it done.
Also, if you offer something like the CWS did to Moncada then the team is foolish. Moncada was a #1 prospect but showed he wasn’t deserving of it during his arbitration years so CWS was dumb to give him the big bucks and move so much money forward into earlier years for a slightly above league average player. Too many bad deals popping up now that the new trend has started.
Red Sox are ‘interested’ in an extension. Looks like Casas is being traded or leaving when he gets to free agency.
Goose – After all, that is the Tampa way … and we know Henry wants to emulate the Rays.
Just say no to “scrum.”
John Henry loves cheap labor and then move on! The best play here is 10 years 140 million! It would be good for both sides! But Henry won’t do it because he cheap and doesn’t care!
How do you account for the Devers contract?
Also..John Henry is not cheap.for example.he owns a boat worth 90 million dollars…its a boat! Lol just because he he chooses to spend his money in ways few of us can understand or short of being a billionaire as well comprehend…so sick of people calling others cheap because of how they choose to spend thier money..how about you buy the red sox and we can sit back and criticize how you spend your millions…be mad at the misinfornation,disorganization and downright poor management coming from the red sox but you cant call a team consistently having a payroll in the top 3rd of mlb cheap
Pool – You’re assuming $90M is a lot of money to Henry.
He’s worth over 5 BILLION ….. doing the math, let’s say that’s 10,000 times more than the Average Joe who is worth $500K …. that means his $90M boat purchase is the equivalent of the Average Joe’s $9,000 purchase …. so no, John Henry is not exactly a big spender.
Fpg..i dont know you or what you make a year but i sold my last boat for that and im not cheap, 9k is alot of money to the average person…who are you to criticize how someone else spends thier money?..i cited the one example i knew since ive seen JH’s boat moored in the harbor many times but have no clue how the man spends his money but trust me ..anyone who owns a boat or yaht is not cheap..that said…look at sportrac..if henry is cheap so are on average 20+ other owners by your logic
Pool – You honestly lost me there. My only gripe, which is the same gripe as millions of Sox fans, is that John Henry has become a cheapskate when it comes to spending on the Red Sox (I’ve read the same about Liverpool fans, but I couldn’t care less about soccer).
I’m not in any way, shape or form judging how Henry spends his non-Red Sox money. If you’re accusing me of being a liberal, I most definitely am not.
PHJ: I agree the Red Sox are not cheap.
Player payroll per Spotrac:
2021: $211.6M
2022: $235.8M
2023: $223.8M
2024: $190M so far including $5M for Hendriks
I am in complete agreement with waiting a couple years to see how he does before signing him. If he fares well, though, he’s going to cost more. Hopefully there’s a plan moving forward so we can keep him if he fares well without overpaying.
I’m with you ! Looks like the typical breakout from a guy w a decent floor, but ya never know when someone is just swinging a hot bat fora few weeks !?
His knowledge of the strike zone when combined with his power says to me this is the guy to lock up if both sides are serious. As I said before, ownership needs to prove they are serious.
Well, look what happened with Dalbec. I have higher hopes for Casas, but it’s hard to know for sure
Dalbec was never rated as high a hitter as Casas who learned the strike zone before any MLB at bats.
Lars Anderson was ranked pretty high too, if I recall. Point is, we don’t have data, we should see how he does this year. He had a great finish but was abysmal until around July.
In the land that time forgot, the RS regularly substituted a defensive first baseman late in close games. If Casas isn’t due up in the 8th or 9th, put in a solid glove (Dalbec?) to cover.
Bee, Dalbec is the guy they have but not the defensive whiz you would consistently take Casas out for.
Bee – Not enough bench players to do that. You’ve got the backup catcher and 3 other bench position players, 1 or 2 of which is likely a starter given a day off. That’s what you’re stuck with when you have a 8 man bullpen.
Dalbec is a solid glove?
Ketch..yes dalbec was actually very well regarded for his defense at 3b and 1b for that matter..they have even used him at ss.for what he lacks in range he makes up for with a very solid glove…watch him play , it shows
Pool, he can play the position but he’s not a stud in the field at any position.
He’s not a stud at the plate in any position. Dalbec is basically a void in this lineup. Not good enough to start but wasted as a bench player. We need to trade him to give him a chance elsewhere.
Right that is basically what i said he is a a solid glove not much range .but imo.better at 1b or 3b than either casas or devers
I like Casas but an extension at this point seems premature. I’d like to see him build on the second half of last season before locking him in for 7 to 10 years
If John Henrys plan is a cost controlled core like the braves model this would be a place to start
Pool – The Braves right now have a $271M CBT payroll …. I really don’t think John Henry will be modeling the Braves payroll anytime soon.
Casa is an average defender, the talk about him being terrible seems like repeating of buzzwords to try to sound informed. He graded average, as a 23 yr old rookie catching balls from the whirlwind that is Devers and a rotating door of middle infielders. That’s a hard situation to adapt to on the fly while also straightening out a bat on an underperforming team. Turner provided the room for Casas to figure out his bat, then glove.
Smooth fielding is more than a metric, it involves chemistry and rhythm formed with repetition from a consistent group of guys. It’s easy to make him the fall guy since he was a rookie.
Above average bat, average defender, and middle of the order hitter. Sign him for 10 yrs and hire a good infield instructor.
Mo, Casas also does not judge pop flies well and if Devers is your 3Bman, you need both to improve big-time.
dewey-
Agreed, but a 1B not judging a pop fly well doesn’t catastrophically impact infield defense. The catcher is primarily covering home to 1st foul, and the 2B can cover the right side infield pop up. The 1B is mostly leashed to the bag incase there’s a play there. Fenways expansive 1st to RF foul territory is big but thats a range factor and no player is perfect. The point is pop ups are mostly coverable by others and the ones that aren’t rarely hurt the team.
Devers on the other hand…frightening. He isn’t present enough to be a consistent defender.
No, agree on one point. Devers needs to be moved (to DH). I’d also like either Yoshida or Duran traded. While I think Yoshida will have a monster second season, only one can play left and neither is a CFer.
Dewey – The good news is that pop ups to 1st base are radically more difficult than 3B. I played both positions and 3B and SS had a spin that made it easier than the 1B spin. When you see a catcher turn completely around at home to get his bearings on a pop-up it’s because the spin brings the ball to the infield behind him. At 1B you have to behave more like a catcher and be prepared for the ball to move to the infield so you should put your face to the stands and be prepared to back up like a catcher. At 3B, the pull from the stands is far less but that’s because more pop-ups are hit by right handed batters where the spin is normal. It’s the lefties down the third base line that create the same effect you have at 1B. I found 3B so much easier on pop-ups than 1B and the more space to the fans the worse it is to get your bearings.
The other key to success at 1B is the quickness of your hands and the amount your eyes water when the ball is a pop-up. Both can be fixed but I think cutting Casas a bit of slack on pop-ups is fair in his first year getting used to Fenway.
Handling the throws and the footwork are the real key skills and if he fails to do those skills well he’ll need to be moved or traded.
Jock – Those who watched the games saw how brutal he was playing first base. Sure he is young enough to improve, time will tell.
Fever – Busted me. I kept confusing the Worcester Red Sox for the Boston Red Sox on MLB stream. The game was also hard for me to follow since the teams run the bases in counter clockwise direction.
Pound sand dude.
Jock – Your “average defender” comment is proof you don’t know jack.
sports.yahoo.com/bad-red-sox-defense-even-16491287…
First baseman Triston Casas looked OK defensively for almost a week. Then he made an ill-advised April throw across the diamond against the Pirates, and it has been downhill ever since. He grades at a staggering minus-8 runs at a position that frankly shouldn’t be able to impact the game that much. He places 47th out of 49 qualified first basemen.
fever –
You’re repeating buzzwords. That article is hysterical. Just because John Tomase wears glasses doesn’t mean he knows what he’s talking about.
Have you analyzed Casas against the rest of the league’s 1B? Since Tomase wanted to quote OAA in a vacuum and you clearly place value on it, I’ll unpack it for you.
Of 1B w/minimum of 250 attempts for 2023 Casas ranked 15th (out of 16 qualified) in OAA w/-10. What does -10 OAA tell you? We’ll keep it simple and not unpack all of the subjective flaws of OAA and just look at the numbers. In a basic sense, he didn’t make 10 outs….across 125 games at 1B. That’s 1 missed out every 12.5 games. The OAA number itself tells you nothing, it gives you zero context which is why you have to look at it yourself.
So if Casas is 15th out of the 1B with the most reps, how many 1B were >0 OAA? Only 6. This means that out of 30 teams in the league, and the 16 that handle 250 reps at 1B only 6 guys were able to be >0 OAA. That’s 6 above-average guys, and 10 below-average guys if OAA is taken at face value. That’s also 6 guys out of 30 MLB opportunities. That means on the scale of OAA, below avg is average. What a stupid incomplete metric.
Ok, so who’s the top guy at 1B in OAA? Christian Walker @ 11 OAA. Whoa, look Tomase 21 “outs” better. Flashy. Shiny. But again what does that tell you? Casas’ success rate must be terrible compared to “the best”, right? Walker is a 74% success rate and Casas is 69%. A minuscule 5% difference. Freddie Freeman was 72% but is considered amongst the best regularly, but only 3% more successful. Paul Goldschmidt, 71%. But guess what, “successful” is too subjective to be definitively insightful. You’d think more success, better OAA. Wrong. Of the 14 guys “better”, 3 had equal or worse success rates. How does that make sense? Less successful in your attempts but more outs.
Looking at a metric by itself as if it tells you anything singularly meaningful is about as useful as pissing into the wind. It makes a mess of things. Metrics aren’t perfect, and massive amounts of subjectivity go into them. They are meant to be interpreted, not repeated.
My point is still the same. Pound sand dude.
Jock – It’s laughable that you think only OAA reflects Casas as one of the worst fielders in MLB, and that you think only Tomase is seeing what everyone with at least one eye saw last year.
DRS – Casas was 5th-worst last year, minimum 600 Innings
fangraphs.com/leaders/major-league?lg=all&sea…
3rd-worst in Def
fangraphs.com/leaders/major-league?lg=all&sea…
2nd-worst in RAA
fangraphs.com/leaders/major-league?lg=all&sea…
We can tell you’re just a Casas Fanboy so you’ll try to discredit every writer who pointed out Casas sucked at 1B.
So just for you, here’s some non-writer FACTS.
Casas was so bad at 1B last year that in June Sox management decided to give Turner – a guy who had just 25 career starts at 1B over a 14-year MLB career – playing time at 1B.
Febles said Sox management and coaching staff talked to Casas about his pre-pitch setup sucking and his first step sucking – which you probably don’t know is really basic stuff that major league 1B almost never have to work on. Casas ADMITTED he never in his pro career focused on those two critical aspects of playing 1B, which isn’t surprising considering how sucky the Red Sox minor league coaching staff was.
Sox management and coaching staff also forced Casas to start including agility drills in his workout, again something that major league 1B almost never have to work on.
And if you knew anything about Casas, you’d know he’s spacier than The Spaceman (look it up to get the reference) and instead of working on regular plays pregame he would spend lots of time working on unusual plays far away from the bag that almost never happen in real games.
Quote from Febles: “Why work on something that only happens once or twice a year?”
Quote from Vazquez (the bench coach, not Glitter Belt Boy): “He’s got his own routine, but it’s the big leagues. You’ve got to adjust. You’ve got to make adjustments when you get up here.”
So between the analytics, the in-game observations, and the quotes from his own coaching staff and management, EVERYONE AND EVERYTHING is in agreement that Casas needs to work a lot on his defense. It’s probably the biggest reason why, in his own words, he hasn’t been offered a contract that’s even enticing.
The Red Sox already made the mistake of giving a longterm position player contract to a DH (Devers), they don’t want to make that same mistake twice.
fever –
You keep sending links proving my point. I’m not saying you don’t know how to read, I’m saying you don’t know how to analyze data objectively.
14 guys logged 1000 innings at 1st….only 14 teams had that, there weren’t 30 guys able/healthy/capable/worthy/etc of logging 1000 innings. Casas was one. You’re arguing as though every team had a 1000 inning 1B and the Sox just need to swap someone else in. Where does the better 1B come from? The ether?
The standard of “avg” is falsely inflated, and not cleanly defined. A balance of metrics and eye tests are needed, with neither giving you anything more definitive other than High, Med, or Low, and the way the metrics grade, everyone is Med or Low at 1st. That points to flaws in the metrics as there is bad repeatability and distribution.
Using your FanGraph link:
M Olson = 8 DRS, -4 QAA, -1.1 ErrorRunsAA, -12.6 Def
N Lowe = 3 DRS, 2 ErrR, -8.1 Def
F Freeman = -9 DRS, 1.2 ErrR, -7.5 Def
P Goldschmidt = 3 DRS, -0.4 ErrR, -6 Def
C Walker = 9 DRS, 4.4 ErrR, -0.8 Def
T Casas = -4 DRS, 1.3 ErrR, -14.8 Def
What do all of those numbers, across those 6 guys tell you? Nothing definitively other than there is a massive amount of subjectivity that goes into the scenarios that create the metric. If you want the most OAA and Def score take C Walker, but wait he had the 2nd worst ErrR of all 1B logging 1000 innings. Etc etc etc.
Zero 1B was positively ranked in overall Def efficiency last year using just the FanGraphs logic. Zero.
Those “quotes” you shared don’t directly speak to fielding, they are alluding to all forms of development for a 23 yr old kid breaking into the majors. What 23 yr old has the world figured out?
Please, for the sake of Red Sox fans around the globe. Go pound sand.
Jock – All those quotes were SPECIFICALLY about his defense. Why on Earth would I have included them if they weren’t?
Here’s the source: theathletic.com/4608257/2023/06/13/red-sox-bad-def…
Don’t you have any other 1950’s insults you can throw at me?
How about “Make like a tree and leave”.
I know that one only from watching Back To The Future. Haha!!
fever – You conveniently didn’t acknowledge the stats that you wanted addressed and instead sent an article from June 13th 2023 pointing to a rookies bad defense. June being 2 months into the rookies season. Again, you aren’t looking at this objectively. That doesn’t mean you’re dumb, it means your human and attaching opinion to your identity.
Your passion as a Red Sox fan won’t be stripped from you, it’s ok to say you weren’t well informed on this particular topic.
Jockstrap – The June 13th article is the source of the quotes, which I’ve already stated.
All the FG stats links were end of 2023, obviously.
You’re just being childish because I proved a dozen different ways how wrong you are about Casas being an “average defender”.
Casas sucked defensively last year.
The stats prove it.
The writers prove it.
Turner playing 1B proves it.
The Sox coaches and management prove it with their words and actions.
And Casas himself proves it with his own words.
Every time you make a ridiculous statement that can be proven wrong, I’ll be here to do just that.
Now go pound cake or whatever the heck Biff told you to write.
The numbers certainly don’t show that if you understand data analysis. If I have to keep analyzing numbers for you, I’m sorry, but I’m going to start billing you like rest of my clients.
Please make your payments are payable to Casas FanBoy dba Glitter Belt LLC
Rent free in fever pitch guys mind. Excellent.
Mo – Metrics are ESTIMATES created in a vacuum that have no real meaning. They are interpreted by the individual or translated by a write-up on a web site. They are as bogus as putting mayonnaise on your hamburger at a ball game.
Small samples have proven to be very inaccurate when observing stats or contrived estimates (aka metrics).
ANYONE who accepts Devers at 3B should never address the subject of defense publicly because they are complete fools. Casas’ issues are an ant hill compared to Devers issues which are Mt. Everest. There is no significance to Casas’ errors.
The people on this website spend so many hours arguing about the insignificant. Does the new pick-up suck? Does he suck more than the last pick up? Does he suck more than Bloom’s last pick-up? 99% of the actions to date have been insignificant. What is significant is the inaction by Breslow. That impacts the future of the team not Casas’ defense.
Troll – Agreed. On enough occasion I’ve outlined my thoughts on the subjective and uncontrollable flaws that metrics carry and that they can’t be used in a vacuum. They also can’t be interpreted in a vacuum, which was my point to fever. There’s too much relevant but missing context when looking at numbers, an article, or interview/press conference. Everything is not known or expressed.
There’s a difference between repeating numbers and understanding them – Casas’ 15th worse OAA breaks down to 1 missed out every 12.5 games. To act as though OAA, DRS, etc tell anything other than a generality is pointless. The difference between avg and “best” is minuscule when truly understood. If looking at common publicly available stats “bad” is essentially average for 1B. The logic in that is a different convo. Proprietary statistics can help refine it more but even then it’s still only one set of inputs that goes into an evaluation model.
Dever’s generalizes(grades) as a bad defender in both eye test and data. I’d also consider him a wildcard variable in Casas’ evaluations.
Jockstrap – You really don’t think I knew you were trying to get under my skin?
Any time I prove someone wrong with tons of logic, sources and links, and they still insist they are right, it becomes obvious they aren’t here for a healthy dialogue and are just trying to annoy everyone with empty nonsense.
And doing the baseless victory dance at the end is meaningless, nobody views you as a winner in any way, shape or form.
I’ll continue to call you out only ONCE on every subject, so if you’re thin-skinned you may want to mute me now.
TF – Excellent post as always! These rookies who think they can use smoke and mirrors to paint a different and inaccurate picture are going to be sadly disappointed because I always bring sources to the table.
Fever – You forgot to Thanos snap at the end. That’s how you activate the infinity stones.
Casas was mostly considered at worst average at first base in the minors. He was brutal at the start of last season but he got better as the season went on. He will be just fine defensively in the minors he was pretty good at scooping errant throws and he’s a nice big target to throw too. He’s not fleet of foot so he’s unlikely to ever be good on going and getting foul pop ups but basing his defense on e few really subpar months when the body of work in the minors and even later last season suggests he’s an average defender at first is premature.
Bruin – Wouldn’t you agree Casas was rushed to the majors? And I’m not saying that just because of his major struggles at the plate early last year.
Two and a half years is basically all he spent in the minors, not even subtracting the time he missed with Worcester in 2022 because of the ankle sprain, and it seems like he didn’t have enough time or a good support system in the minors to work on his defense.
I’d like to see Breslow pull TWO rabbits out of his hat – sign Casas to an extension and trade Devers. Only then would there be both a talent and financial path back towards relevance for the organization.
retsubliab = Great idea. Not likely anyone would want a $30MM a year DH who insists on playing 3B and Casas is going to be paid under $2MM the next two years so don’t run the tab up until it makes sense during his arbitration years.
You people
A half year of solid production isn’t enough to throw stupid money at a young kid yet. One more year to see if he can adjust to pitching once they have a full book on him. Sure they’ll pay a bit more if he come through, but I’m leary of hitter only types at this point. He’s a DH in the making unless he improves at 1st or can play left field which I have my doubts.
Jameson – Thank you, excellent post. That’s exactly what most of us have been saying, way too soon to lock him up longterm especially with his crappy defense.
Sounds like a good idea. All depends if TC doesn’t get too insane about it. He did ok in year 1. But for guaranteed money at this stage…anything can happen, career ending injuries, health, auto accidents, they figure him out in year 2, my advise is a bird in hand is better than no bird if you fall out of the MLB for ANY reason. If you stick, you won’t be wanting anyway. If you don’t you made a smart decision. Lots of players made boatloads who never went the distance from early contracts. When it ends you’ll still have time to sign a 2nd deal anyway.
as a yankee fan i hope they trade him to the national league. i didn’t see him enough to judge his defense but his control of the strike zone is scary good
No Sox fan should spend a dime on this sorry excuse for a franchise right now
News bulletin: Casas has agreed to hair extensions.
team – Same color hair to match his nails?