Young: Rangers Do Not Expect Further Additions

Rangers fans have been holding out hope for a reunion with left-hander Jordan Montgomery, but general manager Chris Young threw plenty of cold water on that possibility Wednesday, telling the team’s beat that any notable acquisitions are unlikely at this point (link via Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News).

“I don’t think there are any additions coming at this point,” Young candidly stated. While he maintained that the Rangers will “keep an open mind” on free agents (including Montgomery), he also noted that long-term uncertainty regarding the team’s television contract “is real” and has impacted spending this offseason — even on the heels of a World Series win.

The lack of marquee additions has frustrated some fans who’ve grown accustomed to lavish free agent expenditures in recent years. The Rangers famously spent more than a half billion dollars to sign Corey Seager, Marcus Semien and Jon Gray two offseasons ago and followed that with a pitching-heavy attack in free agency last winter, signing Jacob deGrom, Nathan Eovaldi and Andrew Heaney for a combined $234MM. Texas also picked up two high-profile arms at last year’s deadline when acquiring Montgomery and future Hall of Famer Max Scherzer. Montgomery, of course, is a free agent and remains unsigned. Scherzer will be sidelined into June or July following offseason back surgery.

Currently, Roster Resource projects the Rangers for a franchise-record $220MM payroll. That comes with $243MM worth of luxury tax obligations, setting the stage for Texas to be a luxury payor for the second straight season. Texas only paid $1.8MM in luxury fees last year, but as a second-time payor they’ll face steeper penalties for eclipsing this year’s $237MM threshold.

Right now, sitting about $6MM over the first barrier, the Rangers are only on the hook for a 30% overage fee. They’ll pay roughly that same $1.8MM penalty if no further deals are made, but between small-scale signings, late trade acquisitions and/or in-season pickups near the trade deadline, that figure will likely rise.

The ostensible lack of willingness to meet Montgomery’s asking price in free agency has proved the greatest point of consternation among fans. Where that asking price stands at present isn’t clear, but it’s fair to expect that Montgomery and his reps at the Boras Corporation are still eyeing a nine-figure contract and an annual salary ranging from $20-25MM.

The Rangers, as second-time luxury payors, would be on the hook for a good bit more than that. They’d owe a 30% tax on the next $14MM worth of AAV (average annual value) added to their payroll and another 42.5% on subsequent spending. Just setting a speculative AAV of $23MM on Montgomery, that would position the Rangers to pay an additional $8.025MM in taxes on top of Montgomery’s salary. Texas could try to backload the deal or defer salary, but that would do nothing to change the luxury tax hit. In other words, depending on where exactly Montgomery’s AAV lands, he’d cost the Rangers something in the vicinity of an extra $7-9MM on top of what he’s earning.

That theoretical Montgomery signing would also make it far likelier that they’ll be third-time payors in 2025. A Montgomery deal would likely push Texas to around $170MM worth of luxury obligations in ’25, and that’s before factoring in arbitration raises for Nathaniel Lowe (earning $7.5MM this season), Jonah Heim ($3.05MM in ’23), Dane Dunning ($3.325MM in ’23), Leody Taveras ($2.55MM in ’23), Brock Burke ($1.035MM in ’23) and Josh Sborz ($1.025MM in ’23).

A conservative estimate for the Rangers’ 2025 arb class would clock in around $30MM, meaning with a theoretical Montgomery deal they’d be over $200MM in tax considerations before making a single addition to the 2025 roster. Long-term deals for core players like Adolis Garcia, Josh Jung, Evan Carter or even top prospect Wyatt Langford would only push that luxury number further north.

It’s fair to debate just how much Rangers ownership should fret over the luxury tax, of course. The team is still entering its fourth season (with fans) in a new stadium that provided a revenue boost, and last year’s World Series win provided ample additional revenue as well. Texas needn’t worry about sacrificing any draft value unless the team is more than $40MM over the threshold — the point at which a club’s top pick is dropped by 10 places in the following year’s draft. It’s unlikely they’d hit that level even if they were to re-sign Montgomery, and they’d be a long ways from that level next offseason as well, even with Montgomery on the books.

Still, every ownership group has its limits, and it seems the Rangers’ group has reached — or is at the very least approaching — its own limits for the upcoming season. If that’s indeed the case, Texas will rely on a patchwork starting staff in the season’s first half with an eye toward potential returns for deGrom, Scherzer and right-hander Tyler Mahle (who inked a two-year, $22MM deal earlier this winter) following the All-Star break.

At the moment, the Rangers’ rotation will likely include Eovaldi, Gray, Heaney, Dunning and left-hander Cody Bradford. Right-hander Yerry Rodriguez and non-roster invitees like Jose Ureña and Adrian Sampson could factor into the group as well. There are a handful of notable arms who could be signed to low-cost one-year deals, and the Rangers could continue stockpiling veterans on non-roster pacts, just as they’ve done with Ureña and Sampson — the latter of whom only signed yesterday.

More broadly, it’ll be a big year for the development of former touted prospects like Jack Leiter, Owen White and Cole Winn. All three are former top-60 draft picks — Leiter was selected second overall — who’ve ranked among the game’s top-100 prospects. However, all three struggled through ugly seasons in the upper minors in 2023 and have seen their stock drop amid those struggles.