The Phillies have begun extension discussions with Zack Wheeler’s camp at Wasserman, the star righty told reporters (link via Matt Gelb of the Athletic). Talks are in the early stages and there’s no indication a deal is imminent.
Philadelphia has made no secret of its desire to retain Wheeler beyond the 2024 season. MLB.com’s Todd Zolecki wrote in December the Phils considered an extension a priority. President of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski went on record to confirm that last week.
Wheeler, who turns 34 in May, is entering the final season of a five-year free agent contract. The club’s $118MM investment over the 2019-20 offseason has been one of the best free agent acquisitions of the past few years. Wheeler has turned in a 3.06 ERA over his first four seasons in Philadelphia. He has appeared on Cy Young ballots in three of them, including a runner-up finish in 2021. Only Gerrit Cole, Sandy Alcántara and teammate Aaron Nola have thrown more innings since the start of 2020.
The former #6 overall pick didn’t show many signs of slowing down a year ago. Wheeler took a full slate of 32 starts and worked 192 innings. While his 3.61 ERA was his highest as a Phillie, that partially reflects a spike in offense around the league. Wheeler’s 26.9% strikeout rate matches his prior season’s output. He walked only 5% of opponents and finished 13th in MLB in innings. Wheeler induced swinging strikes on a career-best 13.3% of his offerings and averaged a robust 95.9 MPH on his four-seam fastball.
Wheeler is under contract for $23.5MM for the upcoming season. An extension would surely come with larger annual salaries for 2025 and beyond. Long-term extensions for pitchers covering their mid-30s are rare, as one might imagine. Over the past five seasons, the only starter to sign an extension covering at least three years at age 33 or older is Yu Darvish. Last February, the Padres inked Darvish to a surprising five-year, $90MM pact covering his age 37-41 seasons.
That’s not a great comparison point for Wheeler, who is three years younger than the San Diego righty was at the time. An extension would take effect in his age-35 campaign. As shown on MLBTR’s Contract Tracker, two pitchers — Max Scherzer and former teammate Jacob deGrom — have secured nine-figure free agent deals at that age. deGrom landed a five-year, $185MM guarantee from the Rangers at 35 last winter. Scherzer secured a three-year, $130MM pact from the Mets covering his age 37-39 campaigns in November ’21. The $43.333MM average annual value was a record at the time; it’s now tied for second after being matched by Justin Verlander and topped by Shohei Ohtani.
Wheeler hasn’t matched the levels of dominance turned in by deGrom and Scherzer at their best. He has a far better durability track record than deGrom, though, and he’s a couple years younger than Scherzer was when he signed with New York. Those pitchers had the benefit of open market bidding. Wheeler won’t have that in extension talks with Philadelphia, but it’d very likely take something approaching free agent prices for him to sign early.
“I just want to be paid [based on] how I’ve done, what they expect out of me,” he told reporters (including Scott Lauber of the Philadelphia Inquirer). “It’s not all about the money to me, either. I took less to come here and be in a good spot and be happy and for my family to be happy. I do want — what’s the right word? — I want what I feel like I’ve earned. … Market value. There you go.”
Wheeler has a solid case for a four-year deal that pushes well into nine figures. He has a better track record than the likes of Sonny Gray and Chris Bassitt, each of whom secured three-year deals covering their age 34-36 campaigns. Gray landed $75MM from the Cardinals this winter, while Bassitt inked a $63MM pact with the Blue Jays a year ago.
The Phillies haven’t been shy about making long-term commitments, although they don’t have anyone making more than $28MM annually. Each of Trea Turner, Bryce Harper, Nola, J.T. Realmuto, Nick Castellanos, Kyle Schwarber and Taijuan Walker are on the books for at least $18MM per season beyond next year. The deals for Turner, Harper, Nola, Castellanos and Walker stretch at least into 2026.
Roster Resource projects the organization’s 2025 payroll around $171MM; they’re at approximately $187MM in luxury tax obligations. The base tax threshold for the ’25 season will be $241MM. A Wheeler extension would likely push their tax number past $215MM, potentially north of $220MM. They’re set to exceed the threshold for a third straight season in 2024, so they’d be subject to the maximum penalties for repeat payors in ’25 and beyond. That hasn’t been a stumbling block for owner John Middleton in recent years. A Wheeler extension would all but ensure they’d pay the CBT for at least a fourth consecutive season in 2025.
There doesn’t seem to be a firm deadline for a deal to get done. Wheeler suggested he’d be amenable to continuing talks beyond Opening Day but noted he’s taking a “hands-off” approach to negotiations between the team and his agents.
This is more important for the Phillies than picking up a free agent in my opinion.
I agree, Wheeler has proven to be durable, effective during the regular season and has performed in the playoffs. He’s a keeper.
Something really clicked when he joined the Phillies. Either they have some great pitching coaches and he really matured as a player or the Phillies have some excellent proprietary blends of sticky substances that are currently legal.
Let’s go with Option 1. Cynicism is lazy, and isn’t as clever as you think.
Bumper sticker wisdom is lazy, and isn’t as clever as you think.
This was a no-brainer. He was. poised for excellence. He had great stuff on the Mets, but ran into injury issues and also had trouble late in games. A lot of teams saw his potential. I’m not at all surprised that he turned into an ace. The pedigree was there.
Says the lazy cynic.
Or he just finally stayed healthy.
While that probably true, free agency is how they got Wheeler in the first place. The market is loaded with top arms next year.
4/$112M
That’s at least 20M shy.
I was thinking five years $170 million
5 for $145 maybe. I think PHI might want to move Schwarber and Castellanos sooner than latter. Have to include some $ in trade.Both or at least 1. Offense decline and defense negative and clog up DH spot.
I’d be fine with them shipping Nicky C off tbh
Turned out to be a really great player, didn’t he?
Market value lol. This isn’t the 70s. You are getting paid an insane amount of money I don’t know why it’s important to get every last dollar I really dont.
Why do you begrudge players any amount of money?
What?
Why shouldn’t players get what they can? It can help others who come after them.
If it shouldn’t be important for players to get every last dollar, why should it be important for owners to keep every last dollar? That’s the flip side of your argument.
You can both be correct.
If he will be happier in Philadelphia at 5 years $170 million then he would be in New York for 5 years and $180 million, he should do what makes him and his family happy.
But if it makes him happy to get every last dollar, then why not, as you point out it may help future players and he can always donate the surplus to the charity of his choice, rather than leaving it in the owner’s bank account.
It doesn’t have to go into the owners pockets. It could lead to cheaper tickets which would lead to more people enjoying baseball.
This whole “help those that come after you” is total nonsense. Like I said this isn’t the 70s. The salaries are insane.
Why would it make him happy to get every last dollar? Why would that provide happiness?
You’re incredibly naive to think anything would lead to cheaper tickets. Owners will always charge as much as possible and just keep more of it in their pockets.
Less and less people are going to games. Face value in tickets has been a joke for a good 15 years. The math isn’t mathing anymore.
While ticket prices have risen faster than inflation, there does not appear to be a significant correlation between that price increase and attendance.
baseball-reference.com/leagues/majors/misc.shtml
bookies.com/mlb/picks/cost-attend-mlb-game-2023
econlife.com/2022/07/baseball-game-prices/
It’s matching well enough to be profitable and enable the owners to afford to offer the players contracts for these “insane” salaries.
Don’t cry for the poor, destitute owners, blackpink. They know what they’re doing and making plenty of money doing it.
It’s basic economics that sellers of a product with limited supply can and will charge the highest possible price to maximize profits.
Name a product you consume for which prices have been lowered because sellers’ labor costs have decreased.
I’ll wait. And wait. And wait. And wait. And wait. And wait. And wait. And wait.
Ticket prices have increased as salaries have increased. To act as if the 2 things aren’t linked is wrong.
What do Dodger tickets cost? What do Pirate tickets cost? 2 entirely different amounts and a big reason why is players salaries.
Where did I say that hasn’t happened?
My point is that even in the extremely unlikely event that player compensation decreases, ticket and concession prices wouldn’t also decrease.
And I’m still waiting for you to name a product whose price has decreased.
The two aren’t related. Ticket prices are tied to supply and demand and what the market is willing to pay. The BILLIONAIRE owners are the ones to blame here.
Why does anyone need to be blamed?
You just said that ticket prices are tied to supply and demand. That’s the free market and not anyone’s fault.
Ticket prices and player salaries aren’t correlated. It’s interesting that fans tie them together.
The flip side is Luxury taxes, keeping a good team together for the fans and the draft penalties.
Over 70 million people go to games a year. Acting like people aren’t showing up is just not factual.
Fast food. When McDonald’s came along they created a system that kept employee cost down. That led to McDonald’s being able to charge less than it’s competitors and dominate the industry for years.
@Blackpink: That wasn’t the question.
Taking McDonald’s as an example, prices for its products have risen over time due to inflation and other factors, just like MLB player salaries and prices of gas, milk, eggs, beer, beef, chicken, fish, and even tea in China.
None of the providers of these products have lowered prices due to changes in labor costs.
Still waiting, lol.
McDonald’s raised prices because they thought they could get away with it. They are now in the process of realizing they were wrong about that.
Every supplier in any market raises prices as high as that market will bear. It’s rational behavior.
That was my original point.
Using strict definitions, there is correlation but not causation.
@blue b- because the owners don’t have to charge more just because the demand is there. They could keep prices reasonable so any family could afford to go to the games.
But why would or should they do that when plenty of people are buying tickets and concessions at current price points?
They don’t owe anything to anyone.
To be decent human beings maybe?
Why do people feel the need to maximize every possible penny when they already have more money for a thousand lifetimes? That line of thinking has contributed greatly to the awful things happening in the world.
Why do you expect people running businesses to give you handouts?
Would you like to have your pay at work cut for the company to lower its prices to consumers?
A decent human being doesn’t decide what’s best for someone else like you are trying to do.
I was just questioning his reasoning.
But hey, thanks but no thanks for putting me on the defensive for no reason.
No it is not. I am so tired of the “if the players don’t get it the owners do” argument. It is very wrong. What happens when a team signs a $30m AAV player? That’s right prices go up. The owners get theirs regardless. What happens when players keep raising already insane salaries is that fans pay more. Your argument should be “if the players don’t get it the fans keep it.” Besides A list movie star what other profession pays as well as professional sports. Heck 100 years ago Babe Ruth first made more than the president. Now several players make 100 times what the president does.
Let’s not forget the billionaire owners are shelling out billions to buy the team. Like any investment they would like a return. You can call them greedy all you want but they are the only ones with skin in the game. Now if you want to talk about taxpayers who don’t even care about baseball paying for stadiums and paying higher cable prices because the local team just signed a new media deal then I think you will touch on the real problem with sports high cost.
@Rob Schumann: But the players don’t raise or pay their own salaries. The owners agree to the contracts and pay the salaries.
The fact is that fans pay higher prices for tickets and concessions if they choose to attend games.
MLB as an industry has experienced significant revenue growth in recent decades, and the players, who are the few capable of performing at an elite level and without whom there would be no game and no revenue, are getting their fair share of what they produce.
Why do you have a problem with that?
As for the poor, destitute owners, don’t worry about them getting return on their investments, they’re doing fine as franchise values keep growing.
If they couldn’t afford the players’ salaries at current levels, they wouldn’t offer the contracts.
And as for stars of earlier generations like Ruth, he and others were actually underpaid and exploited by the owners because the reserve clause and system illegally restrained them from becoming free agents and selling their services to the teams of THEIR choice, whether the highest bidder, location of choice, or other factors.
Why is it important for the owners to keep every last dollar?
Bpita
As Kyle said why do you think the owners don’t just give money away?
Some poor people don’t understand why you don’t give not to charity. You make more than they will in their lifetimes
Also, contracts are used as comps for other players. A player taking a below market deal is costing other players money
Who is to say what is below market? That’s a matter of opinion. If there are 10 different opinions then who is right?
It’s just a stupid thing for a player to say.
Bpita
Yes, who can say if a banana that costs $10 is over or underpriced? It’s a complete mystery
I buy and sell things for a living on ebay. If I list an item and it sells in 5 minutes it’s underpriced. If I list an item and it’s still listed a year later it’s overpriced. The consumer determines the prices not me it’s my job to know what the consumer is willing to pay.
Baseball attendance has been in decline for years. My team the Cardinals provides phony ticket sales numbers to make it appear that its as popular as ever but attendance has been declining for years.
Last time you went to a game did you pay face value for your tickets? Did you even pay for your tickets? Be honest.
Bpita
“If I list an item and it sells in 5 minutes it’s underpriced. If I list an item and it’s still listed a year later it’s overpriced.”
Perhaps, this is true for the type of items you are settling. It’s not true for all times.
It’s not true für baseball players, for example.
Fewer ticket prices being sold doesn’t mean baseball is dying. People are watching games online instead of in person.
If fans weren’t spending on baseball teams wouldn’t be worth billions of dollars
@Blackpink: Objectively, the market price is the highest offer.
Less people are watching baseball that’s not an opinion. Young people don’t care.
The valuation of franchises just like these TV contracts are a house of cards.
I agree. I’ve turned more money twice and never thought twice about it. Wheeler has the luxury of never again worrying about money. That should guide his thought process.
And Joe for normal people like me and you thst extra money might actually matter. Making 80k instead of 70k could mean a lot. But what on earth is the difference between 120 and 130 million?
Hope he breaks the bank. Guys proven every naysayer and doubter wrong and then some.
He is 34 the Phillies probably shouldn’t give him more than 4 years otherwise there most likely will be some bad years towards the end.
If both sides remain reasonable 4 is the appropriate number for the excellent job Wheelers done and for what he’s likely to do moving forward. I think 4/115-120M is a very strong offer and allows Wheeler to mitigate some risk(and stress) of injury in his walk year.
If they can lower overall AAV by adding a 5th yr or an option with a buyout it might mot be bad. I agree though after 4 yrs seems any additional have a strong likelihood of not being all that great.
SC
It’s fine to have some “bad year” at the end
5/$105 is much better for the team than 4/$100. For example.
Isn’t “paid for what you’ve done” and being paid market value two completely different things? So you want to be overpaid, but as we’re seeing from Snell/Montgomery still having not been signed, teams are reluctant to pay market price for TOR pitching. He wants what PHI saved in re-signing Nola.
Had to read that line twice myself and I haven’t had any cocktails….yet
Unlike the other two p’s available, he’s shown the ability to go deep into games on a consistent basis. And Philly has seen him and his medical records blossom over the past few years.
My hope is this gets done before the end of ST.
My hope is that PHI doesn’t get it done and he goes to FA, like Nola, and ATL makes an offer to possibly see him end his career back home, against the fightin’ Phils.
GD Wheelers going to be 34?!?!? When the crap did that happen. If he’s 34 that means I’m not 20 anymore
Hahaha time for Centrum Silver and prune juice 🙂
I guess I should start picking out what color new balance tennis shoes I want lol
Get them velcro ones and flex on all the haters
@Yanks4life22: Newsflash – Nobody 21 or older is 20 anymore.
Time and life march on with or without each of us. Get used to it.
Don’t do it Zack!
3 years/$135M to 5 years/$180M in today’s market, but more reasonably 3 years/100M to 4 years/$130M etc.
Bottom line is: He’s probably worth $32.5M to $45M a year for 3-4 years, 5 years if he takes a lowered AAV.
Bottom line is that he inadvertently gave them a discount on that first deal and has earned that truly A-list salary.
No rush. Both sides can see how the Snell and Montgomery deals turn out as far as what the current market is for front line starters…..and adjust for higher age.
Get it done!
A rare 9-figure deal for a pitcher that’s been “worth it” so far–kinda incredible
big mistake by Mets letting Zack walk sometimes you gotta pay the man.
It’s been tough watching the Phils lock up some legendary names who used to play for division rivals, especially Bryce, but it’s going to be great in a few years when these guys age into untradeable decrepitude.
Four years, one hundred forty million.
Sheesh! Exactly what I just wrote, albeit as the minimum.
Get thru the season and come on back home to Georgia! Chop on!
You don’t realize how closely the chop done by hand resembles the Germans saluting Hitler, do you? It’s only different by a half-turn of the hand.
Disgusting.
He has made over 100 million in his career so he should be a team player and give the Phillies a team friendly contract so they can acquire more talent in the future
Only a small percentage of the global population have made the kind of money he has made
Mentally balanced people do not see the need to make more than what he has made unless they plan to start a charity
You needn’t worry about the mental balance of anyone capable of athletic performance at the highest professional levels.
And who are you to dictate anyone else’s financial decisions?
Worth 60% more than Gray during 2021–2023, and Gray made 3/75m.
Surely 4/140m is the least Wheeler will pocket. 10m more a year, for an extra year. That has to be the starting place, doesn’t it?
Top5 Pitcher imo.
Funniest part is remembering how many fans were all upset and screaming when the Phillies signed Wheeler instead of Madison Bumgartner
2.42 ERA and 0.73 WHIP in 11 Playoff Games….
4 years $120 million? Prob a little on the light end I’m guessing.