Padres manager Mike Shildt told members of the media today that Xander Bogaerts will be moving from shortstop to second base, with Dennis Lin of The Athletic among those to relay the news. Ha-Seong Kim will cross the bag in the other direction to take over the shortstop position.
It was just a little over a year ago that the Padres signed Bogaerts to an 11-year, $280MM contract. At the time, it was a bit of a puzzling fit on the club’s roster. Fernando Tatis Jr. was supposed to be the franchise shortstop once upon a time. In February of 2021, he and the Friars agreed to a historic 14-year, $340MM extension to keep him on the club for the bulk of his career. He ended up missing the 2022 season both due to injuries and a PED suspension, but he was expected back early in 2023. While he was out, Kim provided excellent glovework at the position.
Going into 2023, there was a bit of uncertainty. Tatis was coming off an entirely missed season and the club was thinking about moving him to the outfield. But even if that scenario, they still had Kim to cover short. It wasn’t really expected that they would head into the offseason looking for a mega deal but they landed Bogaerts nonetheless.
Bogaerts’ first year in San Diego resulted in fairly typical offensive production for him. He hit 19 home runs and slashed .285/.350/.440 for a wRC+ of 120. Defensively, Outs Above Average gave him a positive grade of +3 but Defensive Runs Saved had him at -4. He has long been considered a candidate to move off of shortstop, even as a prospect, and it seems the time has now come. For his career, his tallies at short are -31 OAA and -54 DRS.
In the short term, the move is probably best for the 2024 version of the Padres, as Kim is excellent with the glove. He has played 1,505 1/3 innings at short in the majors, just over a full season’s worth. In that time, he’s tallied 22 DRS and 7 OAA. Having him at short and Bogaerts at second should give the club a great middle infield, as even mediocre shortstops often provide solid defense on the other side of the bag.
But taking the wide view, the decision making from the Padres becomes questionable. Twice now in recent years they have given around $300MM to a shortstop on a deal longer than a decade, and now neither will be playing short. Tatis, who has now been moved to right field, is under contract through 2034 and Bogaerts through 2033. Kim is set to become a free agent after 2024, as his deal has a mutual option for 2025 and those provisions are almost never triggered by both parties.
Assuming Kim reaches free agency a year from now, the club will then be looking for a solution at short for 2025 and beyond. They could always move Bogaerts again but he’ll be 32 years old by then and his abilities at that position will only be trending downwards with age. One of the club’s top prospects, Jackson Merrill, is a shortstop who reached Double-A last year. He could perhaps be a solution at that spot down the road but he is reportedly coming into camp as an outfielder, with the club trying to get creative in covering the spots vacated by trading Juan Soto and Trent Grisham. He could move back to short in 2025 but that might be a bit tricky if he spends this year in the outfield with the big league club instead of getting reps in Triple-A.
The Soto/Grisham deal was necessary because the club is paring back spending this winter. That’s partially a result of their TV deal with Diamond Sports Group falling apart but also connected to their extreme aggression in recent years, which includes giving a massive deal to a shortstop they didn’t really need.
Whatever preller is cooking is burning
We’re gonna eat regardless
This news is music to my ears!
Extend HSK while we’re at it.
I have to believe this was done to appease HSK / show him they are serious about him at SS if he extends. If nothing else, leverage for the pre-FA conversations in September.
Maybe even extend him to drop his 2024 salary to 1 mil to free up money for SP?
Either way, this is not some negative to SD because a move of X was inevitable for HSK or Merrill next year.
His bat should rebound if no wrist issues going forward to justify his salary at 2b.
@longtime
I agree. Appease Kim and extend.
Could this then mean we trade Merrill? Wouldnt be opposed to the idea if we extend Kim.
Especially if we fetch an elite OF or SP for Merrill.
@HSK. Get to keep your name for a bit longer. …
I don’t think this move necessitates a follow up action with Merrill. He could still make the team as a much needed OF this year, and if they can’t extend Kim, this move becomes a strong nod to Merrill as SS.
Been reports they will try an extend Kim and play him at short. The short part is happening now they need to extend Kim. Merrill will play left field or even center as he has been practicing them both this offseason.
No reason to trade Merrill when he should be perfectly fine in the outfield. His 65 grade hit tool is his calling card.
My thought:
If HSK extends – Merrill for Luzardo is happening UNLESS, Merrill is pegged at LF or CF which apparently, he is getting reps at both. They do need someone there as well.
If HSK does not extend – HSK traded at deadline and Merrill takes over SS.
No. this is incredibly stupid unless an extension is already completed and just not announced yet.
Bogaerts is a much better hitter and has been an above average defensive shortstop. Alienating him by moving him for Kim to take SS for one season or worse PART of one season would be a complete moronic move.
Padres would not be moving Bogaerts for Merrill.
Doesn’t take much to justify $25 million per season, but his value is lower at 2B than SS.
If they have not already come to terms with Kim on an extension this may be the worst move I have ever seen in MLB. You don’t move a 4-5 WAR player that is above average defensively off their position to put another player there for a single season or a rookie there later.
I’ve been wrong many times in life so if this doesn’t turn out , no worries. But along with trying to extend him and appease him, isn’t this just the smartest baseball move? I mean he likely won’t extend because they don’t have tons of money to offer, however building his value throughout the year and then offering a capable bat defensive wizard shortstop at the deadline might help them replenish the farm system and the future a bit.
If Kim is traded mid-season, this becomes one of the dumbest moves in MLB history. Its stupid if they don’t already have an extension agreed upon with Kim.
Bogaerts is a much. much better hitter than Kim and he has been an above average defensive player the last 2 seasons. You leave him there until someone comes and TAKES the job long term. Merrill has not taken the job in any way shape or form.
I’m guessing we’ll learn of the extension by end of weekend. There’s also possibility that Bogey walked into camp and said he was ready to move to 2b (not 1b). It was discussed as a long-term switch with him at end of last season.
Pads fans – unless your name is chaim bloom or you think like him. Then you let a all star ss hit FA because you *think* a prospect may develop 4 years down the road to take his place, and, you sign a known injured quantity to a massive contract to fill the gap as a downgrade.
Point is, silliness like that happens all over mlb.
Yeah Bogaerts is below average defensively and will only get slower. When shortstop get old they become 2nd or 3rd basemen. Just like in football when Cornerbacks get old they become Safeties. Or back to baseball like how old Centerfielders become corner Outfielders.
Yeah but Kim has and won’t extend if they play him at 2nd base.
isn’t this just the smartest baseball move?
========================
It’s an obvious move. Most teams play their best fielding SS at SS. One could argue that SD makes up the 2-game deficit last if they had Kim playing SS all year.
Further, it’s not a matter of if, but when Bogaerts comes off of SS.
Can someone explain to me if advanced metrics take into consideration that Bogie had Devers at third and a laundry list of no names at second once Pedie got hurt? Just wondering if his stats would look differently if he had a Chapman and a healthy Pedie on his flanks for those seasons.
At least for the two additional years, make them guaranteed
Joe – Take a look at the numbers. Kim is a far better 2B than SS. The positions don’t translate that easily. He also has about 4400 less chances in his career at SS and a lower fielding percentage.
Hardly a bright move by SD.
Dewey – Great point and using old school more accurate numbers like fielding percentage, this move makes no sense other than Kim is younger. His defense is great at 2B and not as good as Bogey’s at SS.
Also, a bit of a slap in the face to the guy you spent big bucks on a year ago. It’s not like Bogey is even close to a Devers level of play, heck the local high school 3B is better than Devers, so why move Bogey because he’s older and how will his arm react to the completely new arm angle of his throws. This could really blow up in SD’s face. Don’t be shocked if Bogey gets an arm injury. With what he’s making, how silly is it to risk that so a younger guy can play SS?
They could have used some of that Cronenworth money for Kim. Too bad. The Padres front office moves have been real head scratchers all the way back to Hosmer.
He’ll have more value as a SS at the deadline. XB and his contract are immoveable.
XB has never been an “above-average” defensive SS. Average was his career year.
I agree n this is one way to alienate Bogey for no good reason.
One could argue that no Bogey at SS hurt Raffy more than any other MLB player.
Usually teams that are in contention already have their SS situation figured out. Doubt there will be much demand. Is value is defense not as a bat. No this is Preller doubling down on stupid.
Bogaerts is not an above average defender. He is a career -3 DRS. 2022 was the lone year in his career he had a positive DRS. Kim for his career is +9 DRS. Sorry but in no way is Bogaerts above avg defensively, that’s just flat out false.
As far as I know it doesn’t take that into account. One thing to consider is there is no more shift. Some of the previous metrics don’t take into consideration the shift. Those numbers help some players and hurt other player’;s numbers.
If people are looking at a range of years it’s not going to be a totally accurate value (not that it ever was) on their ratings.
Shift didn’t lead to many other SS’s Kim included from having positive DRS. They were playing under same rules as Bogaerts.
stymeedone – Sorry that’s wrong if you consider real stats.
If you can factor in the Devers factor into the metric numbers you’ll find Bogey was A LOT BETTER than the metrics suggest thanks to the flaws in the formula. Somebody should have told the tech nerds designing the formula that middle infielders can be impacted by the range of the corner infielders. A fool like Devers reduces Bogey’s range significantly despite Bogey having an excellent fielding percentage.
Bogey is 6 points above league average at SS. That’s damn good. Kim is 5 points above league average at SS. He’s better at 2B where he is 6 points over league average like Bogey and he’s fantastic at 3B where he is 28 points over league average. Those are the type of numbers that win you a utility gold glove.
Bogey is a class act and will handle it better than most but if he strains his elbow throwing from new angles without proper off season preparation, it’s on the fool who made the decision.
Tiger – Back with the bogus DRS numbers!!! hahaha
Wow. Still not seeing the problem with the bogus numbers?
Bogey is six points over league average and the make believe stat based on flawed simulations says he’s -3? hahaha That is ridiculous. In the REAL WORLD, you can only field balls where they are hit so there is no need to guess what they might do if a ball might be hit somewhere else.. Comprehend? Your imaginary world of metrics simulates and the real world simply exists and the player deals with it.
If your 3B cuts off your routine plays your fielding percentage may not go down but your range does. How f’ed up is that?
You really need a courses in DRS and how it is miscalculated.
You might want to refer to the hundreds of articles explaining why DRS is so wrong and has been since it was invented.
yewed – Excellent point. The accuracy of DRS has been in question since it was invented. and then applied to all positions. There is no factor correcting anomalies like an idiot 3B racing in front of a SS who should routinely make the play so the 3B can enhance his range at the cost of the SS. There is no negative adjustment to the 3B or positive adjustment to the SS. To make things worse, there is NO consideration for whether the hitter was out which is the basis of defense.
Tons of problems with defensive metrics. We all know fielding percentage doesn’t reflect range but I’ll take the guy who doesn’t make the error with less speed than the guy who gets to balls but can’t get outs on them. Metrics likes the second guy.
cuffs2 – Newsflash DRS is inaccurate but fielding percentage is NOT inaccurate. Bogey is 6 points OVER league average and Kim is 5 points over league average.
Bogey played next to Devers and Kim didn’t.
Your conclusions are inaccurate. Study up on how DRS is calculated then when you find out you can NOT see ANY specific play being evaluated using DRS because it’s in a secure database not available to the general public you might ask yourself – Why should I believe this number? There is no proof of how it’s calculated, how the data was recorded and what constants and variables were used in the formula.
You have to have a ton of blind faith to suggest that DRS is anything but a misguided ESTIMATE. it’s clearly not a stat based on fact like fielding percentage. So without a better alternative, Fielding Percentage suggest good vs bad fielding and Bogey is better than Kim at SS historically.
Joe – ERRONEOUS THINKING ONCE AGAIN!!!
Nothing suggests Kim is better than Bogey at defense. Kim won his GG for utility play mostly because he far exceeded league average when he played 3B not SS. SS is his worst position defensively. He’s an excellent fielder but his strengths rank 3B, 2B and then SS. Bogey has a higher lifetime fielding percentage and about 4500 more total chances at SS than Kim.
The best fielding SS on SD played there in 2023.
Dewey – The more I’ve dug into DRS the more shocking it’s been to see how inaccurate and unavailable the details are..
If you want to look up an out in a game you go to Baseball Reference and look up the game and it tells you the ball went to SS (Bogey) and he successfully got the out. If you want to know how that play impacted his DRS – THERE IS NO WAY TO KNOW!!! Why? Because the numbers reside in a proprietary database and are released based on per-specified requests, none of which are at a game by game basis.
Yes, basically the individual play can NOT be tracked but you can get this magical season long number if you request it or you use facilities like Baseball Reference who request it by season.
Also, people who are nerds and write about this stuff can’t see the inconsistencies in the data and accurately report on it. For example, here is a write-up from Mike Petriello a MLB sports writer explain why Bogey is so bad. He never once stop to think about his following quote:
Bogaerts was very good on the right side of the diamond, posting a +5 OAA while shifted over..
His stat nerd conclusion was he should play 2B rather than wow what a huge impact Devers has on his numbers. Yep, with Devers Bogey’s number was an OAA of -41 and without Devers it was +7. His conclusion was the shorter throw made the difference which tells me he doesn’t understand how OAA is calculated.
The idea that an entire set of estimates are published daily that are completely “BLACK BOX” numbers that are accepted as correct is insane. I think of electric bills that needed accountants to figure out why the total is what it is. The modern metrics are the same thing. It’s a trust me estimate.
The weird thing is that people do and then they go on and on about them as if they actually understand them. It’s crazy.
I know how a fielding percentage is calculated and I can update the number after each play. I can’t do that with ANY metrics because they are black boxed.
So rather than trust the calculations are right when they don’t pass the basic optics I choose to ignore them. All I know is that guys who are 6 points above the league average at fielding percentage are guys I want on my team and guys who are 20 points below league average are players who should find a new position. Devers is 7 seasons into his 20 points below league average career. Bogey is 11 seasons into being 6 points over league average. That’s good enough for me.
GWSF
The “silliness” is reducing the analysis of players to “all star SS”, “a prospect”, “known injured quantity”, etc…
Those brushes are so broad that they are useless.
Toll free- or whatever account you are on. You seem so worked up about this.
Xander is a good fielder he doesn’t have a great arm and a decent number of his balls bounce to first. The good news is they are usually fairly easy to pick because they come in fairly soft. Unlike when Tatis was there his balls were harder to pick because he threw them so hard.
One of Kim’s best attributes at short is his arm is very accurate. If Xander can transition smoothly to second he should excel there.
You can argue with yourself over what metrics you like and don’t like. Anyone can find metrics and pick apart why they aren’t useful or why someone wouldn’t believe in them.
Kim is a very good shortstop, hopefully Xanders transition goes smoothly.
Kim more reps at 2b than SS? Nonsense, look at his long career in KBO where he was an all star at SS (and 3b).
@Simm, I won’t even reply to him anymore. He’s condescending to all and clearly has an overly inflated ego. To dismiss stats that scouts, analysts, front offices, etc… all have widely excepted as wrong and he’s right is absolutely laughable. To dismiss range as though it’s not a thing also laughable. To look at just fielding % and form a conclusion is again laughable.
I enjoy coming on here discussing baseball and hearing others opinions. There is nothing enjoyable of hearing a one sided diatribe by a condescending fool. I appreciate all those who are on here to have dignified and respectful discussions with others. There is no value to the opinion from someone who is hxll bent on being right to fill some void(s) that lacks elsewhere in their life.
How could moving players around the diamond be the worst move in MLB history?? Over-exaggeration much??
Why would the Padres, who have one of the best and deepest farm systems in baseball, need to replenish their farm system?
Nope. We found out that Bogaerts walked into camp and was told he was moving by Shildt. No previous discussions about it except in the media. Shildt confirmed that he f’d up on that front. Bogaerts was visibly ticked off in the interview he did at camp about it.
What makes this even more stupid is that Bogaerts has never played a game at 2B in his life, not even in Little League. After 20+ years of playing baseball at SS with a few games at 3B, 1684 games in the pros at SS and 63 at 3B and NONE at 2B, he is being asked to move.
BS. Kim is the ultimate team player. He would be just as likely to extend at 2B as he would be at SS.
2022 – 5 OAA
2023 – 3 OAA
In case you didn’t know, that is ABOVE average on defense.
2022 – 5 OAA
2023 – 3 OAA
Above average
What he did 5-6-7 seasons ago doesn’t have any bearing on what kind of defensive player he is today.
UZR doesn’t take shift into account at all. In the age of the shift it was totally useless for infielders.
DRS was not entirely zone based like UZR, but did not take into account catches that were out of position. IE, a SS shifted to 2B position.
OAA DID take the shift into account. It was based on where the player was positioned exactly and how far they moved to make the play on the ball.
SS and 2B are quite similar, both are playing more of quick reaction. He ll get less action and shorter throw from 2B. You are trying to portray it as though he’s being forced to play catcher.
I’d say the move from LF to RF is more significant than a move from SS to 2B. With more RH hitters RF sees more opposite field hits which come in hooking opposed to straight and a bit faster. It kind be tough getting a good job especially with lights.
Idontbelieveyou.gif
Nobody:
Pads Fans: Mike Shildt already said that Bogaerts will be the Padres’ shortstop in 2024.
Marrtho
Not a big Preller fan, but this move seems smart.
Perhaps, but I like taking jabs at the preller.
Then be like most people, they will like this move and give the credit to Schildt rather than Preller.
It IS Schildt’s doing.
People forget when he took over the Cardinals, the defense was terrible, and in 2021, they made MLB history with five Gold Glove winners. Schildt will make the Padres better, though whether he can compensate for losing most of their pitching staff as well as Soto and Grisham, only time will tell.
He’s making this move not only because Kim is a better defender, but to pave the way for Merrill after Kim departs in free agency (or via trade).
Defference between Shildt and Melvin is that Shildt promises to work hand in hand with Preller. The FO even discussed this option with Bogey before Shildt was hired. This was a decision supported by both.
Could it be none of these moves were Preller’s decision in the first place? Has this been stated anywhere? Maybe it was a decision made by the players and the manager/coaches?
Doesn’t matter, they are all an extension of the GM
It does matter. They don’t run every idea his way. That is why Preller hires these guys to be somewhat independent of him.
Well it does matter whether the owner gave an order or left it up to the GM. But we will never know.
I actually don’t think that’s the case for a lot of teams. I think managers and owners have a LOT more say in who gets signed than most people think, and GM’s for those teams are just the ones who negotiate contracts. In the Padres case, I bet their owner (RIP) pushed Preller hard to short-circuit the process and produce a winner before he passed.
That’s kinda my point here.
No, Preller is known for being a micromanager.
All I’m saying is that at the end of the day, the GM is at the top, and everything, whether he has as direct say in it or not, is an extension of the head of their organization.
A GM can be fired by the owner. So ultimately the owner has the last word and most influence. Hie hands on every owner is we can usually only speculate. Steinbrenner I’d say is the clearest outlier. Hard foe anyone to say he was not absolutely hands on as far as decisions.
Man I’d love it if my team had so much talent that they’d have to move guys off position just to get them in the lineup.
Not for that price tag you wouldn’t.
My name is Towinagain and I approve this message.
Toe-nailed it
Tow – see the world didn’t end yet and the season is still a month out!
Rearranging the furniture is nice. You move the couch to a different area in the living room,opens up the lighting and allows for a more positive Feng Shui.
At the end of the day, that’s just the loving room, the master bedroom still needs work.
The kitchen is still in need of an island. The one that was there, a beautiful at that was removed.
The walls need touching up as well.
The house is, well incomplete.
When all the pieces are in place we will know whether or not the house will stand or not.
Nice, a House analogy on the same day the Aztecs play New Mexico. Brilliant Tow!
I wonder how Xander is gonna feel about this lol
Who cares. He got overpaid a massive contract and will do what the team needs. It’s not like he needs to worry about losing SS dollars on his next contract either since he won’t sign another.
Shildt knows exactly what he’s doing. Really respect him.
I agree. As a Cardinals fan I was disgusted when they got rid of him.
And he just delivered his worst season since 2017.
Click on the link and there are direct quotes from Xander saying he’s on board. But that would require actual reading which no one on this site seems to get past the headline.
Bogey is a team player, always put his team first. How many players can do that?
Few and far between, but out there.
Did you see Mookie Betts moving around for LAD? Superstar making big money hopping around multiple positions.
The travesty is BOS had both as homegrown players and ditched both of them for nothing of particular value.
Imagine a canny Red Sox FO having signed them to long-term deals while in their first couple of seasons with the team. You can throw Devers into that group as well, giving he’d be entering his 30s as those deals would be on the verge of expiring.
He’s probably the best hitting 2B in the National League now. All Star selections and Silver Slugger Award galore.
Mookie Betts would like a word.
Forgot he’s their 2B now.
Hold up, buttercup. Betts (although he is also an outfielder) and the Reds McClain are potentially just as good if not better.
Forgot about Betts, but McClain hasn’t done anything yet. I think he’ll be good, but a 1/2 season means nothing at this point.
He already noted that he forgot that the Betts position change is permanent now.
Marte and Albies should be better as well.
You forgot about Ketel Marte as well.
lol someone is a Padres fan…
Marte
Gorman
ALBIES
Arraez
Not a Padres fan. I also said “probably” not “conclusively”
– Marte is iffy. I like him, but his health tends to get in the way.
– Gorman hasn’t really done anything yet. I say this as a Cards fan.
– Albies is definitely elite.
– Arraez is also elite, though only offensively..
Albies and Betts definitely better offensively than Xander, especially in that spacious park in San Diego. Boagerts is a gap hitter while Betts and Albies are easily 30+ homer a year candidates while hitting .275+.
Mookie Betts is a 2B now. So 2nd best hitting 2B in NL.
@Wagner>Cobb Fwiw Jeff McNeil by OPS+ outhit Bogaerts in
2018
2019
2020
2022.
Don’t mean to break your heart.
Don’t sleep on Nolan Gorman.
How are Outs Above Average and Defensive Runs Saved calculated?
Magic and mystical arts.
OAA for outfielders is the season-long cumulative expression of each individual Catch Probability play. For example, if an outfielder has a ball hit to him with a 75 percent Catch Probability — that is, one an average outfielder would make three-quarters of the time — and he catches it, he’ll receive a +.25 credit
Thanks, drasco. If the player fails to make the catch on a fly ball with a 75% catch probability, then presumably the same fly ball would then have less than a 75% catch probability. If player A makes the catch, then player B fails to make the catch, then player C makes the catch, presumambky player A would receive more credit than playerC for making the same play. That doesn’t seem right to me.
Catch probability isn’t an accumulated stat. It’s:
How far did a player run
How long did he have to get there
What direction did he have to go
***wall proximity***
And who is the average ballplayer who makes the catch 75% of the time?
Beyond that, how is this data collected? Every pitch and every play presumably provide data on all these statistical measures, so each one has to be revised thousands of times in the course of a single day’s play. At least that’s how it seems to me. I am admittedly ignorant. Help.
I don’t understand how you are not following this, presumably, you are just trying to mess with me.
DRS uses Baseball Info Solutions data to chart where each ball is hit. Say, for instance, a center fielder sprints to make a nice catch on a fly ball. Then, say data from BIS tells us that similar fly balls get caught 60 percent of the time. That center fielder gains, essentially, 0.4 bonus points for difficulty. If he can’t make the play, he loses 0.6 points. At the end of the day, that player’s overall score gets adjusted to the league average — and then that score gets adjusted for how many runs the once-adjusted score is worth.
Calculated by people who never played baseball.
I’m all for analytics, it’s what I do for work, but not all aspects of human intellect can be accounted for in code/formulas.
It’s pretty straightforward, you are rewarded for making difficult plays, penalized for not making plays you should make.
MVJ
“Calculated by people who never played baseball.”
Why do people say this dumb stuff (What kind of people are likely to say dumb stuff?)?
First, who created OAA and DRS?
Second, what is their baseball playing history?
Third, who created batting average and ERA?
Fourth, what is their baseball playing history?
Fifth, you are probably right that “not all aspects of human intellect can be accounted for in code/formulas”. But that certainly doesn’t mean that baseball defense can’t
More like “most things cannot be accounted for with 100% precision”. It’s just like defense in every sport. Watch every college CB for every play, and there is still a reasonable chance you can get it wrong.
But that doesn’t mean that people won’t create a formula to reduce their chances of getting it wrong.
filihok –
All people say dumb things. Humans have biases, varying experiences, and differing knowledge. Einstein could say dumb things in the realm of plumbing, while still being considered incredibly smart.
The issue isn’t that stats exist, it’s that they are still rooted in subjectivity and also can’t account for all factors. They are imperfect.
Example – Your playing centerfield and are attempting to field a fly ball that has a 70% catch probability. Meanwhile, you tweaked your hamstring 2 days ago but are trying to Cal Ripken it for your team cause your clean up hitter. You don’t get to the ball in time to catch it. That would be counted against you. You can interchange other factors like did you lose the ball off the bat due to the sun/lights, was the ball a gap ball – if so was it the RF or CF avg’s that are used for the catch probability and is one position generally faster than another potentially changing “average player”? How did your coach align you on defense prior to the pitch? How was the avg player that was used to create the 70% probability identified? Are you positioned to back up the SS/2B in case of a steal and bad throw to second so your shaded to one side? etc
Sprinkle in that all formulas/code are based on human input.
Even AI generated code as it first needs to be established by a human. Humans hold biases that introduce subjectivity to their opinions/decisions…even in a metric derived from a standardized formula.
I’m not reducing all metrics/analytics to garbage, I’m saying they can’t tell a complete story and can’t fully account for bias, subjectivity, and other potential flaws. To reduce a player to a metric(s) is not a wise evaluation approach. Do you want to be reduced to your test scores/GPA/sales targets/etc?
drasco – who determined “plays you should make”? Is it exposed to human bias and subjectivity?
Joe – Agreed about reducing the chance of getting it wrong. Metrics are about mitigating risk and monitoring, not definitively knowing. They are 1 of many factors that should be balanced in player evaluations.
MVJ
I appreciate, truly, the thoughtful reply.
“they are still rooted in subjectivity and also can’t account for all factors. They are imperfect.”
Of course. I don’t discount that at all
But I do have a hard time squaring it with this:
“Calculated by people who never played baseball.”
which certainly reads a certain way. Especially in response to someone asking how it’s calculated.
And, as you, certainly, know, people who have played baseball can also have biases.
The question is, do the metrics provide better information then we’d get otherwise.
I have ZERO doubt that the metrics are head and shoulders better than the average internet commenter.
So, if someone says “the metric is wrong, I watch all the games”, I’m throwing their opinion out immediately – unless it’s baked up with some reasonable evidence to support the idea they know what they are talking about – which basically never happens.
To paraphrase, less negatively, metrics are the least worst form of measuring baseball performance that we’ve come up with so far
filihok-
I think we’re on the same page regarding evaluations. I’m cautious in overvaluing any particular metric, but also can’t completely disregard the intention even if I see potential flaws.
When you see a stat show a player of Xanders caliber grade him so poorly, I question how insightful that metric really is. Article: “For his career, his tallies at short are -31 OAA and -54 DRS.”
What does that really tell us other than Xander isn’t the strongest defender? There’s too much unknown and uncontrolled inputs going into those numbers. There’s also much more nuance to not making a play and costing your team. I view OAA and DRS as plotting a player on a Low,/Med/High scale rather than seeing it as -54 being atrocious compared to 0 or -25. A fair premise if analyzing him would be, how did he stick at SS so long if he was that negative of a fielder?
For what it’s worth, good for calling me out on the calculated by non players comment. Unnecessary shoot on my part.
MVJ
“I question how insightful that metric really is. Article: “For his career, his tallies at short are -31 OAA and -54 DRS.””
Bogaerts has played 1300+ games at SS. Call it 10 sessions to make the math easy
That means he’s not making 3-5 plays per year that the average SS is making.
Add 3 extra outs to his batting line per season. He’s not suddenly a wet noodle at the plate. It’s a pretty small difference over the course of a season. The difference between a, and I’ll try to forgive myself for using this stat, even out of simplicity, .271 batting average and a .268 batting average.
And that’s, probably, overstating it
He’s had, per inside edge, 2846 chances at SS. So, 54 plays not made is less than 2% of those plays.
At SS a play not made is usually one base. So 5 plays a season is like 3-4 runs. It’s something, but not catastrophic.
I am also due for a mia culpa. You’re right that it was a question of knowledge and not of intelligence. And no one can have knowledge of all things
Also, I was projecting generally the anti-data crowd on you and not responding to you specifically.
As we’ve just seen, people should be given a chance to explain themselves further and not judged based off just one comment (something I do try and do here, though it usually ends up confirming my suspicions not reversing them).
filihok –
Exactly. A metrics impact on the outcome can be negligible but if viewed in a vacuum(misinterpreted) than the metric can actually reduce the evaluations accuracy. Just like the classic “he passes the eye test” shouldn’t solely be used.
Cheers on the balanced conversation. Good to be accountable to perspectives, but also heard.
@realsox Many sites give descriptions in varying levels of detail.
Interesting stuff. Try m l b d o t com for some basics, if that’s where you are.
This move really only makes sense if Kim is extended. Otherwise you have probably soured a $280m player by moving him for just one year, then either moving him back or replacing him with an unproven rookie.
Reports are that X handled it in a totally professional manner.
And it’s not irrelevant how he feels about the move. Should X be mad? No, he’s getting paid a fortune and HSK is the better SS. Would the team prefer X to receive the move well as opposed to being pissed? Of course they would. It’s always better to have happy players instead of unhappy players.
Especially when that player is a better player overall the last 3 seasons and is an above average defensive shortstop himself that has never played 2B at any level of baseball.
The ONLY way this makes sense is if Padres have already come to an agreement on an extension with Kim.
If it’s being reported on then odds are they’ve discussed it with him already. Highly doubt he cares either way, he’s likely not signing a new contract after this one expires
The checks all cash the same and he’s under contract til age 40. I doubt he gives a crap.
About time! HSK IS THE MAN!
HSK already #4 all-time Defensive WAR leader for the Padre franchise. Remarkable glove, deserves to be the SS and put him down in pen to be a Gold Glove finalist.
baseball-reference.com/teams/SDP/leaders_bat.shtml
He is one of the most underrated players in both leagues.
Great point and agreed, Nails! Friar fans- I think this signals Pauley as the OD 3-bagger!
Or Eguy – he got a little time there last year. Whichever hits the best in ST.
@Gwynning. He’ll have to earn it, but I was thinking of that potential as well. I have to think Kim will be there as well. OR, Manny walked into camp and said he would be ready, and med team agrees..
“earn it” over Matty Batts and Eguy
Machado is the OD 3B.
I’m assuming Machado will DH only for “awhile” to start the year, PF.
Pads Fan – I’m trying to figure out if you have some inside up to the second information or if you aren’t aware that the reports have been for months that he is “expected” to DH for a little while at start of 2024 due to the anticipated timeline for his procedure.
Obviously those reports have some hope built in that it won’t be necessary and we all k ow Manny won’t sit out easily but still I have read anything that definitively has Manny as being good to go on OD at 3b.
I don’t think the HSK announcement has anything to do with Manny because there are other options to man 3b for 7-21 days as needed and we all know SD needs a DH anyway (right now).
There are 4-5 options to man 3b – heck if those options are not at 3b then they just became options at DH is my point. Thst option is batting somewhere on OD.
Eguy, Batten, Pauly, Merrill.
Plus he took a great step forward offensively this season
100%
I doubt Pads has inside information we don’t have.
Shildt and Preller have both said during camp that Manny is expected to be ready to play 3B in Korea. You can find all that information easily on the 97.3 The Fan Twitter account since the interviews are broken down into individual subjects.
If for some reason Manny is not ready, the best option is Kim. Without a doubt. Rosario and Batten are the fall backs.
This move does seem like a no brainer. Why play the best shortstop at second?
CF
“Why play the best shortstop at”…
Ask the 2004 Yankees
I thought it but didn’t say it
HSK is a boss.
Really, really stupid to do this unless an extension for Kim is coming.
Disagree wholeheartedly, PF. HSK is the better glove (not that Bogey is bad- he’s not) and the defense becomes that much better. HSK may or may not be extended; I lean towards NOT to start the season. I will be happy if I’m wrong, HSK is a stud. He will be showcased at SS for ’24 and if our Pads are slacking, then perhaps he will be the hottest ticket at the TDL. HSK finished just behind Snell and just in front of Tatis in MVP votes last year and I wouldn’t be surprised to see that again. AJ is holding all the cards here, Kim is awesome.
No the defense doesn’t become better. Kim was great at 2B and Bogaerts has never played 2B at ANY level of baseball. Bogaerts will NOT be as good at 2B as he was at SS.
That is why Shildt said its not set in stone, that Bogaerts would go over there and put in the work and they would see what happens.
Any team that moves a good defensive SS for 1 year or even less of a better defensive player that is NOT a better overall player is stupid as BLEEP. Are you saying the Padres are stupid?
Unless they have locked up Kim its stupid.
Everyone thinks if you can play short, you automatically can play second and be fine but ask Addison Russell and Simmons just how easy it is. Both guys were gold glove caliber defenders at short and both guys absolutely tanked at second.
Second base isn’t as demanding as short stop but the reads are different and so are the body mechanics, turns, throws, instincts.
Well, thank goodness it’s Spring Training and not the playoffs. There’s plenty of time to hash this stuff out, one way or another.
This really ticked you off Pads. Take a deep breath. There must be more going on that we know or smart baseball people like Shildt and Preller would not have made the move.
If it turns out that they don’t have Kim extended or trade him, then blast the team. They will deserve it.
“Playoffs? You want to talk about playoffs?” – Jim Mora.
@websoulsurfer “Pads” IS you lol.
Front desk at Bates Motel
HSK IS the man, but that doesn’t make this a smart move. The Padres just took an above average defensive shortstop and moved him to a position that he has never played a single game at in his career at any level. We have no idea how he will play at 2B, but we know that Kim is outstanding there.
I guess that is why Shildt said its not etched in stone. If Bogaerts tries playing 2B in camp and cannot do it well, then Kim may still be the opening day 2B.
The other thing is that if the Padres don’t extend Kim now, they could have just alienated a player that will be on their roster for 9 more seasons after 2024. So Preller better have a Kim extension in his back pocket right now or he could come out of this looking mighty stupid.
Xander was going to move off short sooner or later. As he said whether it was this year or in the next year or two at some point he was going to moved off short. So might as well do it now…he said.
We shall see how he does over at second. My guess is he will be fine as soon as he gets the double play down.
Now as far as the long term plan I do agree it’s pretty muddy. I figured they would leave him at short this year with the uncertainty on Kim’s future. Though there was a report the padres would try and extend Kim and move him to short. So perhaps they are feeling comfortable that they will get him extended. If they don’t then this whole move feels awkward.
Even if the plan is to put Merrill at short next year. He is generally thought of as about an avg shortstop. Even more weird if he plays the outfield this year and not short.
I see the idea behind this move but that doesn’t make it any less muddy.
What concerns me most from this is the that the Pads might extend Kim. I like Kim, but not for $18-20M AAV when they have budget constraints. They will be buying high, very high. If they can’t afford a SP or OF, they should let Kim go (or trade him) and use the SSs that they have instead.
Silly rabbit. Buying high is all Preller knows how to do.
So we’re back to trading Cronenworth? Ahahahaha.
He’s a lefty. Cashman may be interested!
Wow, just thought of Crony in that stadium. Could revitalize his career.
He’d hit 35 bombs in that stadium easy!!
Wouldn’t he just move to 1B?
He’s their 1B.
Get Votto!
No.
Cronenworth is the Padres 1B according to Shildt. If he can get back to hitting like 2022 then he will be a top 5 1B in the game.
Cronenworth a top 5 1B in the league. Really?
So The Pads have been around for 55 years and there is only one player with a WAR higher than 32.
What is this based on? Not a padres fan but they have had a plethora of talented players. Plenty with career war over 32. I’m guessing you are limiting it to Tony Gwynn since he was a career padre. I’m curious how many teams have multiple players that meet the single team over 32 career war criteria.
yardbarker.com/mlb/articles/the_24_best_players_in…
Thats a rancid list. 55 years. Good Lord.
It hasn’t been fun to watch.
Most WAR per 162 games all-time (position players): Babe Ruth (10.5) Mike Trout (9.7) Rogers Hornsby (9.1) Barry Bonds (8.8) Mookie Betts (8.7) Ted Williams (8.6) Lou Gehrig (8.5) Willi
futurebaseballlegends.com/Career_WAR/
Sounds like a team from Nintendo’s Baseball stars from the 80’s. Ahh the fond memories
It actually appears somewhat common. Bbref has a career WAR leaders page for each team. Just staying in the division, Dodgers have had 27 players reach 32 with the team, Giants 30, Rockies 5, Dbacks 3. 32 is an arbitrary number though and clearly cherry picked to dunk on the Pads.
The Cubs have had eight players over 32 WAR for the team in seasons since 1969.
Fergie
Reuschel
Ryno
Maddux
Grace
Sosa
Zambrano
Rizzo (Thanks, Padres!)
That’s because for the most part the Padres have not been able to keep stars like Winfield and Ozzie and Sheffield and McGriff long term due to financial concerns. When you only have great players for a handful of years, you are not going to accumulate a lot of career WAR.
pretty sure Tony Gwynn is above 60.
And I really need to learn to read. OOF, Gwynn was the one man above 32. Kicks self.
I think this speaks more to the Padres’ difficulty in KEEPING talented players on their roster, as they’ve had players of high caliber like Winfield, McGriff, Robbie Alomar, and Sheffield come and go.
I love the Gene Richards pic though. I’m a Dodgers fan now after spending my adult life in LA, but I grew up in SD, and I always loved watching Gene Richards choke up on the bat. I always loved Juan Bonilla, too.
“Xander is gonna feel”..On the one hand you cannot blame Xander for accepting a ridiculously overpriced contract offer. On the other hand, you can blame him for choosing a team with about a GAZILLION other SS options.
When did greed stop being sinful? Pretty sure the baseball gods weren’t in favor of what he did to what was a pristine story.
That was… abrupt. And also the right baseball move. Whether or not there’s a bruised ego remains to be seen.
Not really ,its been a subject of talk all this off season. I wonder if this announcement is a meaningful signal that Kim is here for the season.
It it could mean they plan to trade HSK and have Jackson Merrill play shortstop
I think that depends on how the season goes. If Kim keeps up the upward trend with the bat like last year, Padres will be able to get a good return if they deal him away at the trade deadline.
“Right baseball move”..Personally I feel Xander is a big boy who’s mentally tough enough to survive a position change. This is a guy, remember, who thrived in baseball crazy Boston, which is a very demanding group of fans, owners and team leaders to please.
SMART SMART SMART
That’s some smart shilt right there
Guess Kim moving to SS means Zaidi will have to wait until next offseason to try & sign Kim
Kim may have been the smartest signing Prellar ever made.
Great signing, but I’d give that honor to James Shields considering the ultimate outcome.
For all the (justifiable) flak the Red Sox have caught for mishandling their young core, you can’t knock them for not paying Bogaerts what he wanted. It’s funny—if you’ve only watched Bogaerts play in games being broadcast by national media outlets like FOX or ESPN, you probably think Bogaerts is some kind of next-generation Ozzie Smith, because that’s how Joe Buck & co. always talk about him. But he’s always been a middling defender at best, and I don’t miss the runs his defense cost Boston while he was here.
This is a good move for San Diego, and a 2B with Bogaerts’ pop is still nothing to complain about (at least for the time being). He’ll be better served in a position that demands less range.
All X ever wanted from the RS was Story money. That would have been a smart move. SD just swooped in with insane money. Not X’s fault for grabbing that bag.
The RS deserve all the criticism they got & have coming to them.
Exactly right, junk.
They certainly should have (and could have) extended Bogaerts for a lower price before he reached free agency. And they certainly should NOT have turned around and spent that money on Devers. But I’d want no part of his current contract in five (or even three) years. At that price, I’m fine with him being gone.
Certainly not X’s fault, though! Good for him, I say.
After he signed the previous extension, he was never going to pass up testing the market.
It’s hard to say whether or not that’s true, but regardless, the formal offer that the Red Sox did end up making the year before he reached free agency was insultingly low. I’m not sure it would be fair to say that he was “never going to pass up” free agency when the extension offer that ownership made was fundamentally non-competitive.
Is that you Sal?
The Red Sox offered Bogaerts an AAV that was much higher and for 8 years.
At $25 million AAV Bogaerts is a bargain and will be for the next 6-7 years.
Padres made the smart move. Red Sox took it on the chin again then overeacted and gave Devers 3B money when he will be a 1B or DH soon.
I agree with you about Devers, but Bogaerts is not going to be a productive player past age 35. I think the back half of that contract (and maybe even the back two thirds) is going to be unpleasant for San Diego fans.
So much of Xander’s hitting ability comes from his wrists and his ability to get his hands through the zone quickly. As some of that dexterity starts to go, his stats are going to decline. He lacks a true power tool, which means his slug will diminish as his reaction times and sprint speeds grow slower. While he has strong command of the strike zone, much of his ability to get on base by way of the walk is attached to his ability to fend off tough pitches and borderline strikes (which will deteriorate along with his bat speed and vision). He’s also not particularly quick-footed even in his prime, and much of his doubles power is going to turn into slap hitting as he loses that foot speed.
By 2027, I think Xander’s going to look a lot more like Elvis Andrus than a middle-of-the-order threat. And, as mentioned above, his defense isn’t great, either. I love X, and I had fun watching him when he was with the Sox, but I wouldn’t get your hopes up for his late-career performance. Enjoy him while he’s still young.
Age regression models for MLB show that Bogaerts will still be a 2.4 WAR player in his age 37 season.
At $25 million AAV that means that without wage inflation, that Bogaerts would still be providing surplus value through age 36. He will be under contract for just 4 seasons after that.
Since wage inflation is as likely as death and taxes …
Bogaerts defense has been above league average the last 2 seasons. His WAR has been more than double league average.
I’m asking this in the spirit of genuine curiosity (not in the spirit of debate): where did you find these models, and how might I get a look at them myself?
BIS. Baseball Information Solutions. You can subscribe. Not sure what the individual subscription costs today. sportsinfosolutions.com/solution/baseball/
For?? Dudes on decline. Brilliant move by sox
I hope they’re doing this to appease Kim before FA; I will die a little if he goes to LA or SF.
I hope they already have an extension agreed upon or this is a stupid move. Bogaerts has never played 2B at any level of baseball. Kim is already an exceptional 2B.
I think Bogaerts will profile well at 2B, I guess time will tell.
The problem is he has never played a game at 2B in his entire career at any level.
When you have to make payroll cuts, and you have at least 5 starting shortstops on your starting nine, you have to play them somewhere..
Surprised this wasn’t done long before this.
Pay the man like a SS, play him as a 2B.
Welcome to Padresing
How much are Betts and Semien making?
Semien makes about the same per year, but on a $175m contract instead of $280m (4 years shorter)
Betts makes 30m annually
They both had nearly double the WAR of Bogaerts last year, Semien hit 10 more homers than Bogaerts, Betts hit TWICE as many homers as Bogaerts. Both had a higher OPS and OPS+ than Bogaerts.
But they are all playing second base so you somehow think that males them the same and the Padres front office full of geniuses. LOL
@99 X was playing hurt last year.
OK but he has zero seasons with a WAR that Semien posted last year. Semien has 3 years with a higher WAR than X has ever posted.
X is a good player, but his contract is woefully bad, it’s not as cringeworthy as comparing X to Mookie Betts, but still. LOL
@99 wasn’t last year semiens best year ever though?
Never mind dude has had some monster years.
No 2019 was better for Semien by most metrics.
In 2019, 2023 & 2021 Semien posted a higher WAR than X ever has.
Mind you I’m not saying X is no good, he most certainly is. This is just another example of how freaking awful the Padres front office is. They will be paying X until he is what 42? Semien is done in Texas at 38.
And yet Preller blowhards will stick their head in the sand and act like X’s contract is comparable to Betts or Semien. It clearly is not.
@99 “this is another example of how awful the padres front office is.”
It’s always hilarious to me when fans on this site think they’re smarter than a team responsible for the assets of a billion dollar franchise.
We’ll see how the contract looks a decade from now. Until then this debate is meaningless.
$25 million for 4.4 WAR in a down season is awesome value for the team.
I don’t really care what Semien and Betts make. $25 million for a hitter of Bogaerts caliber is a bargain. Especially when you take into account the wage inflation the last two seasons.
Semien has had a 114 OPS+ since signing his deal going into his age 31 season
Bogaerts had a 120 OPs+ after signing his deal going into his age 30 season.
As a hitter, Bogaerts was and is better. Semien provided most of his value on defense and there is no question that he is a better defensive player than Bogaerts.
Being the 3rd best 2B in baseball is not a bad thing, except maybe to a hater like you.
You can do that when the guy you paid like a medicre 2B is set to play as a darn good SS.
You’re right, the Padres always pull all the right levers. Just look at the results……..
By your logic 29 teams every season don’t pull all the right levers either.
Lmfaooooooo. 10 years 225 for an aging 2B yiiiiiiiiiii…..iiiiiikes
25 mill/year for someone producing at the top of the lineup is pretty fair, actually.
No, it isn’t. There’s been like 2 2B in the history of the game who’ve even been remotely productive after age 35
You don’t think players are (and people in general) are aging differently now than when they would drink beer and smoke cigs in the clubhouse? Lol
Also just an FYI Freddie freeman is gonna be 35 this year for reference. Xander is 31.
Read my post again and tell me the difference between my description and Freddie Freeman
Bingo El Niño. If X and Manny are producing similar to FF at 35 – Manny presumptively at 1b by then, I don’t see the problem with their contracts down the road.
Yeah, I little higher than FF but also, they have been playing premium positions all the years leading up to age 35z
Also for Manny, he was only paid 17 in 23 which was 13 less than owed so, his last year is essentially paid for by that move after factoring in inflation and present day value, etc.
Also, it isn’t like payrolls aren’t going to escalate over the next 3-5 years.
X and Manny will be middle of road salaries by the time they are “aging elite players”.
That’s why Freeman has 4 years left in his contract and X has 10 more years.
Freeman will run through age 38 and X will be 40 – not a big difference.
Time for attempt #3….
@pat maybe you think you’re being cute, but you’re not adding anything here.
Is Freddie Freeman a 2B or nah?
@pat freeman plays a less valuable position.
Name one 2B besides Jeff Kent who’s been productive after age 35
Pat, not sure how old you are but questions like this are not really realistic because the answer doesn’t really prove the original question.
What I mean – for the first 100 years of baseball history, there weren’t many players even playing at 35 and those that were were not near their best years.
So, to say X can’t be productive as a 35 year old in a few years because there have only been 1 or 2 (depending on your definition) of productive 2b after 35 isn’t sound.
Also, no foundation to establish that X isn’t at 1b or DH or LF at 35 so again, not really the point.
Lotta words. No names
Comprehension – google it. I try not to respond like this but you deserve it if you read my post and come back like that.
PtB
I wonder if, and stick with me, it’s possible fit players to change defensive positions as they get older
:looks at, literally, the topic of this article.
Oh
How about Pete Rose? He stuck around a while after 35
Or Paul Molitor
Or Jackie Robinson
Craig Biggie
Chase Utley. That’s from the top of my head. There might even be more
How much are Betts and Semien making?
Rose didn’t play 2B after age 26. Robinson was a 3B by then. Utley was horrible after 35. Molitor was a DH. Biggio a LF and not good.
Good try tho
Freeman doesn’t have a 755 career ops. Don’t think Xander is going to get better with age unless he takes roids.
This was one of the worst contracts ever given out.
PtB
So, there have been more than just Kent, correct?
Let me spell out the point even more elementarily for you since it was apparently over your intellectual ability to comprehend.
Bogaerts could, like he is now, and like other players in the past have, change positions to hero playing
Get it?
And continue sliding down the defensive spectrum and be worth even less, lol. Glad you’re finally starting to get it lil guy
PtB
So you’re saying he can, like many other players continue playing past 35 and be productive at other positions or as a utility player
“lil guy”
Muted
@pat damn how’d that schooling taste son? Hahahaha
Schooling? Not one poster in Chula Vista has been able to produce a single name yet
@pat it’s cool, reading comprehension is not your strength.
Oh I understand perfectly. Imagine thinking a 38-year-old utility man is a thing lmao.
Everest levels of cope in here
Now you’re moving the goal posts – you look ridiculous lil guy.
So crazy – LaD paying their 2b in age 39 a whopping 35 mil as opposed to what SD is paying their age 39 2b!
Some teams even pay 43 mil for a 40 year old worn out arm thinking they can get 200 innings of 3.00 ERA out of like they did when they were 30!
Back in the day even, some team paying ridiculous for a 2b named Soriano? What are they thinking?
Or what about 68 mil for a 49 year old they isn’t even playing anymore?
Oh, you thought it was just the Padres with X?
Wow, the whole sport is crazy!
Me: No good 2B over age of 35
No rings brigade: yeah but he can be a utility man
Me: there aren’t any good utility men over age of 35 either
No rings brigade: moving goalposts
Lmao. Who can’t read?
Bear with me here genius: aside from the second baseman already mentioned, Jeff Kent retired 20 years ago at this point and was an outlier himself by playing into his 40s. We are now (20 years later mind you) seeing players in all sports playing well into their 40’s because of advancements in sports science. Going back to what I originally said – athletes are aging differently. If you’re too dense to see that then you’re helpless. I’m done here.
@ pat and 8 years from now 25 mill is gonna be a drop in a bucket.
EL – I think we have been on the same side of this story against Pat.
My comment that you have replied calling me “genius” (I believe facetiously) replied to was all sarcasm in my reply to Pat.
Are they? Who in the last 10 years has played well at 2B over the age of 35? Still no one? Weird.
Just a little lesson in argument here – moving the goalposts means you changed your argument from the initial one to something else after it was initially debunked. Mine wasn’t – the no ring brigade just shifted it elsewhere after they couldn’t come up with a name. That too was debunked.
You then had to resort to “well, it’s different now,” still with no evidence.
Imagine thinking you won something after taking the L on 3 fronts. No rings, no Ws, no anything.
Know your role
@longtime my bad! That wasn’t meant for you. That was @pat
@pat hahahaha you probably think you sound cool saying dumb stuff like “know your role”. I feel bad for you lil guy.
Age regression models for MLB position players show Bogaerts will still have a 2.4 WAR in his age 37 season.
Bold move, good for him., Phillies should do the same with Stott and Turner but no one has the balls to speak up
If he hasn’y already started I’d have Xander working out at 1B also in ST Gives them flexibility. The position IS NOT EASY to be good at : footwork communication with SP, covering, holding runners and where to play next to the 2Bman etc. If he could start say 20 games and switch there during other games as needed when 1Bman is pinch hit for etc. I know Kim is on his last year but instead of listening for trades, I would try to extend him. His salary isn’t unreasonable and potentially in future
That puts a ton of pressure on his batting to be great though. Bogaerts is a decent SS but is probably an even better 2B. Idk what Cronenworth is gonna be at this point, I think he’s just a one hit wonder and is on the way to washing out now if he wasn’t under contract.
Sure. Why not. You have your 2B playing out of position at first , your $280 million SS at second and your soon to walk out the door free agent who should be traded for pitching or outfielders at SS. All in all, a pretty messed up franchise stalled out.
Kim was great at shortstop in 2022. Bogaerts isn’t getting any younger, and for the most part has been average at defense.
Should’ve done it last year. Great and smart move.
Should’ve done it last year.
========================
As good as Kim is, if they played Kim at SS last year, and X at 2B, would that have been enough to have the Padres make up the two games they missed the playoffs by.
Yeah, because a run saved on defense is just as good as a run scored on offense. Especially in those close games. The ideal defense is Kim SS, Bogaerts 2B.
Probably not. The thing people keep missing is that Bogaerts has never played a game at 2B at any level. No one knows how he will do at 2B. Kim was outstanding at 2B. We know how he would play there.
Anyone else think this move signals the team ultimately wants Jackson Merrill at his natural position of SS and thinks he can stick there longterm, with Kim as essentially a 2024 stopgap?
IMO still gives them options to pivot next offseason (or trade deadline). They probably reset their CBT and are then able to resign Kim if they can give him a competitive offer (would probably need to take a “hometown” discount), or they can let him walk if Merrill looks good in his first taste of MLB action. I wouldn’t be opposed to Merrill in LF either, even if the offensive expectations would be higher.
I could see Kim, Merrill or even Tatis at shortstop in 2025, in that order of likelihood.
I’m happy with Tatis in RF; I wouldn’t want to mess with that. But yeah, Kim or Merrill next season. X could still hack it for a couple more seasons at SS (at least, according to OAA).
They should extend Kim, but it seems like they’ve already committed so many dollars to other guys that they won’t be able to afford him unless he takes a friendly deal.
Anyone else think this move signals the team ultimately wants Jackson Merrill at his natural position of SS
===========================
I doubt Merrill sees any time at SS for the Padres.
CF?
Merrill is yet to practice at SS in spring training. I think that says it all. If he is going to win a job on the opening day roster, it will be in the OF.
A smart move but another proof that Preller sucks and has always sucked. He should have never risen above minor league coordinator/draft because he is awesome at that. He sucks as GM
Peeler may have issues but I would trade FZ for him any day. Padres underperformed last year and will look much better this year, the Giants over performed last year and depending on the performance of 3 to 5 unproven starters (the whole healthy staff minus Webb) likely will be much worse then last year.
I agree. Preller may suck but still better than Farhan (thus far)
Giants will finish ahead of the Padres. SD has no depth , half a pitching staff and no OF. Book it.
I think that depends on if any of the rookies/young pitchers step up for the Padres, but farhan still sucks
This awful signing really ruined the franchise forced Cronenworth to lose all his value by playing 1B and forced them to trade Soto
Cronenworth provided no appreciable value on defense at 2B. 0.8
dWAR and 0.2 dWAR in seasons he was a 4.8 and 4.2 WAR player overall. His value is on offense. He lost his value because he stopped hitting.
Have to be pretty stupid to think Bogaerts deal is a bad contract. Bogaerts provided $15 million in surplus value in a down season for him in 2023. At $25 million AAV he will provide surplus value for 6-7 more years. That means over the 11 years he will be providing surplus value for at least 2 years more than half the deal.
6 to 7 years is very optimistic. Even if he does that’s a lot of years of negative value.
He is right. Age regression models that are based on more than a century of data in the live ball era show that Bogaerts will have a WAR around 2.4 in his age 37 season. Those models take into account injuries that typically increase with age and changes in position. That is 3 seasons of negative value.
Serious question on my part:
Let me tee it up: 1) WAR is position-centric meaning the same stats at different positions give gifferent WAR outputs. 2) Bogey has never played a professional game at 2B that I’m aware of.
So, when you talk about WAR models, I presume that is the model creating an expectation of his statline based on past output correct?
Also, I presume that presupposes he will be as effective a defender at 2B as he was at SS right?
Finally, I dont recall which of the two positions WAR values more heavily, and, how the stat line is weighted: is SS weighted more heavily for offensive output & baserunning than 2B or vice versa? Is SS weighted more heavily for defense than 2B, or vice versa? That is to say, will a superior line put up greater WAR at which respective position? (Hint: the same position could recieve a greater WAR for equal output in both categories)
The problem with a WAR projection so many years away is exactly that, never mind yet another positional change to 1B ever being in the cards, or even DH.
After all that here’s the question, which is where I expect you can share how accurate/valuable you still think the projection is:
So when you claim projections say he will be worth 2.4 WAR…. as what position?
The age regression models take into account regression in defense as well as position changes.
They use what position changes have happened for other players that were SS in their age 28-30 seasons. They are based on a rolling 3-year average of performance for their basis.
There is a margin for error in these projections of 0.4 WAR for players starting with a base of their age 28-30 seasons and projecting for their age 37 season. He could be as low as 2.0 WAR or as high as 2.8 WAR.
Regardless of which end of that spectrum Bogaerts falls in at age 37, that is a good contract for the Padres.
Smart move to improve the defensive alignment. Anything that takes pressure off their young SPs is a bonus.
“ Twice now in recent years they have given around $300MM to a shortstop on a deal longer than a decade, and now neither will be playing shortstop”
That’s wild
Nothing questionable in Tatis signing, his bat plays at any position at that contract, even with the embarrassment of having tested positive for steroids. I expect Tatis to be a top five in MVP votes this year. Bogey signing was dumb, they should have signed a cheap 1B like Jenner last year instead. They would have had more flexibility to make other moves. That said, Bogey is a solid bat and the team is pretty good, just need another couple starting pitchers a #5 and a depth guy
If you are going to do that best to do it with shortstops since they can be moved as long as they can hit they will be still valuable.
If Merrill makes the team and starts in LF, they will have 6 spots on the field covered by SS. All infield positions and both corner outfields. Now just CF and catcher and it is a full squad of SS. Too bad Hoffman is last generation, or if he pitched they could have all 9 covered.
The Padres are just preparing Jackson Merrill to take over SS in 2025 early, cause Kim is gone after the season to get his 100 mil deal like the Giants gave his countryman this offseason.
Hahaha they just signed Machado to that ridiculous contract and they are already moving him away from 2B
Huh?
The speed of a 22 year old Billy Hamilton combined with the defense of a 24 year old Kevin Kiermaier.
X is a classy guy. He’ll be a good sport and continue to rake as a 2B.
For a couple hundred million, it isn’t being classy, it’s doing your job
Yes, pedanticism runs amok in these comment sections, so I will obviously concur with your statement. I just really like X as a player and prefer to take a more complimentary tone about his position change.
He is classy, because he could’ve pitched a fit. We don’t know what was discussed when he was signed but he did it as a SS, so that’s his job.
Bogaerts job is to play SS and when he was signed he was assured that is where he would play. He easily could have pitched a fit and the Padres would have been f’d since he is under contract for 10 more seasons. Instead he said ok, I will try it in spring training even though I have never played a game at the position in the minors or the majors. Not even in spring training. That is class. Especially when he is being asked to do it for a guy that will likely be gone after the season.
Ha, he had no interest in moving over for the red Sox. Amazing what a bad contract will do for your willingness to comply.
That’s blatantly not true, tang it and you should know it. As late as the fall of 2022 he said he was willing to move off of SS and then bloom gave him an insulting offer. At that point he had to say he was a SS in order to maximize his value on the open market.
He could have moved prior to that yet never did. Now it’s not lost on me that Cora is a moron and that could have played a part, but bogearts’ defense was atrocious the year prior and moving him had been discussed.
He could have doesn’t mean he was asked to and he said no.
Isn’t Kim still tabbed to start at 3B this year while Manny’s arm recovers? Either way, I have to wonder if the Pads have advanced talks with Kim about an extension, and one condition (from Kim) is that he play SS. I would like to see more from him in 2024 before they offer big money. Let him play SS, see how he does, then either extend him or trade him at deadline. If traded, this is still a good move as it also opens up SS to Merrill when he’s called up. But this move (Bogey to 2B) clearly says Kim wont be traded before OD which is not a surprise.
It sounds like Manny is ahead of schedule.
Prob Pauley, eguy or batten will fill in for manny. I don’t think manny will need to dh everyday from the sound of it. Perhaps they just keep him from playing third on back to back days for awhile. He is already throwing to first now. Either way the padres were going to need someone to fill in at 3rd, second or 1b.
Maybe go listen to what Perller and Shildt have said about it since Manny got to camp. He is expected to start at 3B in Korea.
Shildt also talked about reducing his back to back games at 3b. But it will work itself out in ST. No guarantees at all and none of us know, so discussions about who fills in at 3b are reasonable to have.
Eguy Rosario, Kim, Bogey, Crony, Merrill, PTBNL
Preller and Shildt have said Manny is on pace to start the games in Korea at 3B.
Maybe he will, maybe not full time. Fine to discuss both scenarios.
Imagine paying $300M for a 2B
I know right…what are the dodgers thinking.
Imagine paying someone 680 mil to play in a beer league after 2033!
The timing of this makes perfect sense. Slide Bogaerts over now because there is currently a GG caliber defender on the team whose bat came alive last year, Kim. Showcase Kim as a SS in the event this year doesn’t go as planned and they end up trading him. Have Merrill come in at SS next year , or after trading Kim, while not having the added pressure of him being the reason for moving Bogaerts to 2nd.
Of course if Preller & Co. push Merrill to the Majors this year by having him play the OF, then I am not of the point of the timing of this.
Think they plan to extend Kim. Then it all makes sense.
Simm – I think SD is showing Kim the faith and love. I hope that HSK returns to sentiment by agreeing to extend.
These conversations happen at this time of year on a practice field in Peoria – I’m heading there in 15 days – so it take a little time for all the ink to dry.
Kim has made it very clear he wants to be here. Hopefully they can work out a deal to keep him happy and not break the bank.
Either way this is the best move for the 2024 season.
Wanting to be a Padre and turning down $200 million to stay here are two different things.
Since you have no idea how well Bogaerts can play 2B, there is no way to say it’s the best move for 2024.
As has been said several times, it only really makes sense if Kim is being extended before the season starts.
As has been said by you and all your accounts. Just because you sign in and post a million times on different accounts doesn’t make your comments anymore right or wrong.
While yes there is a possibility that Xander doesn’t transition well to second and makes the overall team defense worse. He is going to move off short sooner or later. So best to do it while he’s still fairly young and athletic. If he can’t do it now then the padres are really in bad shape. That means he would have to become 1b or dh.
I think he will be just fine over there at second making the defense even stronger.
Not sure why you think I have multiple accounts. You really need to stop listening to Ryan/Harambe/Red Rooster or whatever the heck he is calling himself today.
I have had one account since 2009. One of me is obviously too much for you because you keep making stupid accusations. Maybe just stick to the point and stop being a jerk.
Most SS do move off the position at some point. RARELY when they are still above average defensive SS and even more rarely when they are in the top 5 or 6 in baseball overall at the position. Never in for a guy that will be a FA at the end of that season. It’s never happened before.
That is why this makes NO sense unless Preller has already come to an agreement on an extension with Kim and just hasn’t announced it yet.
Again, since Bogaerts has never played the position at any level, not even little league by his comments, there is no way to say it’s a good move. None. Zero. You simply don’t know.
You can hope he will play the position well, but even Shildt said it’s not etched in stone because no one knows if he will be any good there after 19-20 years of being strictly a SS. He is going to do the work there in camp and see if he can play the position. It’s a not an easy transition. Everything is backwards for you. Especially after 20 years as a shortstop.
If he can’t do it, he will be the Padres shortstop and we will know long before opening day. Kim will go back to 2B. He won’t move to 1B or DH this season. He is one of the top 5 or 6 shortstops in the game right now. That would be incredibly stupid. Why would you even suggest something like that?
By the time he is 40, Bogaerts WILL be a DH or 1B. That is a given. So why are you crying over that fact?
Wait. You’re not Pads Fans!? I never had a beef with you like of the other commenters here and have actually found myself agreeing with your takes more often than not lately but you are him… right?
Not sure why he denies it when he stopped trying to be subtle about it years ago.
Sorry to disappoint you, but no.
Kim is a GG caliber 2B. Bogaerts has never played 2B for even a single game at any level and is an above average defensive SS.
Makes ZERO sense to move Bogaerts at all unless Kim is extended. Otherwise its freaking stupid.
This is NOT the best move. Cronenworth hit substantially better lining up at 2B. XB should be at first.
Bogaerts admitted during last season that HSK had better range. 80 games too late.
Crikes – baby steps. X stated months ago that 2b or CF would be his preference if moved. Egos need a little massaging along. I think he gets to 1b (or Manny) in 3-4 years.
Peter Seidler wanted and intended to still be here, hence the X signing.
That Cronenworth remains their 1B guy is rather unwise. It is thus far a true lose-lose for both team and player (apart from his crazy paycheck – which of course makes him a huge winner).
There is still time and money available for a Cooper or Votto signing.
If Merrill takes LF, even a Profar to 1b move.
Cro will end up bouncing around more than he does just playing 1b (if not traded).
To trade Crony they would have to pay 75% of contract or attach a quality prospect, neither is happening.
I do think Votto signing with Padres – and not starting regularly – is a potential match. I could also see Joey retire.
Why would you think it unwise? Cronenworth’s value has always been his offense. His D at 2B was worth 0.8 dWAR and 0.2 dWAR.
What is crazy about signing Cronenworth to an $11 million AAV deal after having 2 straight 4+ WAR seasons? If he reverts to being that player its one of the best contracts in baseball. If he only reverts to being a 2 WAR player its a good deal. Not a thing crazy about it.
Pads fans remind me again how great Preller is as a GM
Actually, good point! The standard always seems to be that AJ has never won a World Series, but last I checked the rays have never won a World Series but they get painted as the gold standard.
If the Rays spent like this sailor did, we’d have a WS.
Hahahahaha keep telling yourself that.
Boy do 340 million cf grow on trees fellas. Kind makes Buxtons deal worth the volatility in cf vs that wall. You pay smart you spend smart. Now you’re stuck w Machado bogaerts and tatis at nearly a billion playing out of position. I get the whole doing what’s best for the team but this roster construction is turning out exactly how we thought it would. A mess of seismic proportions with no chemistry. Congrats to Kim though he’s really developed into one heck of an option for them and saves a ton of money on the books for them. Buckle up boys it’s the Aj Prellar farewell tour.
Kim is a better defender period. I like the move.
You don’t move Bogaerts for a year of a better defender when Bogaerts is an above average defensive shortstop and a much, much better hitter.
Its stupid to do this unless an extension for Kim is coming.
I hope they are extending Kim.
If they have not already agreed on an extension this is a stupid move.
#1 – Bogaerts is unquestionably the better hitter and he played above average defense the last 2 seasons.
#2 – Bogaerts has never played an inning of 2B at any level. We have no clue how well he will play that position and its likely it will not be as well as he played SS.
#3 – Kim is a great defensive 2B
Moving Bogaerts HOPING that Kim playing SS will make him more likely to sign an extension with the Padres or that it will make him more valuable in trade at the deadline is just about the dumbest thing I have heard. Unless the deal is already agreed to its moronic.
Kim is going to get more than $20 million AAV in an extension. It doesn’t matter one bit what position he plays in 2024. He will still get that money.
Kim is still going to be worth the same amount in trade at the deadline with 2 months of season left regardless of what position he plays up to that point.
which is why I feel fairly certain an extension is already worked out, we just haven’t heard the news yet. I like Kim, who wouldn’t, but I’m not sure I like the idea of another long-term contract, especially with such good prospects SSs in the wings
Slowly moving Bogey to his eventual position at 1st base. Then DH. Then, the final three years of his contract, he’s the gimpy wash-up who pinch-hits in the 8th inning of 13-2 games.
Only happened in year 2 of 11. Not bad…
Redsox owners are cheap. Should of paid an aging ss 300 million … to play 2nd. (Redsox fan)
Is Cronenworth not a better 2B defensively? I’m sure I heard some of the Padre fans saying what a good glove he had a 2nd, and the stats bear that out. 7th/8th according to the Fielding Bible in 2022/21.
I would say Cronenworth is the worst SS option in the infield, so I’d expect Bogaerts to be better. At 2B, Cronenworth is on the good side of average according to DRS/OAA from 2021 to 2022. I would hazard his range is below average, but he makes up for that with some good playmaking ability.
@JoeB Better defensively than Bogey? I don’t think we’ll know until Bogaerts actually plays 2B. Cronz is better at 2B than 1B, but he’s exceptional at both positions. Kim was probably slightly better at 2B than Cronenworth, but both are top tier there. Kim has has better range than Bogey and Cro, which plays best at SS
AJ Preller is great and finding, drafting a signing great, young talent with big upside.
AJ Preller is not so great @ roster construction.
The Soto deal ruined the Padres depth and young pipeline to the majors.
Without the Soto trade to San Diego FIASCO , the Padres would have a much younger, more well rounded, cost controlled roster loaded with great, cost controlled young talent for their present window of contention and be able to give the Dodgers a run for their money
and maybe even sign one of their own free agent starters?!)
1)CJ Abrams could be playing SS, 2nd base OR . LF or CF.
3) James Woods would be close to taking over in CF. or a corner OF spot
4) Top SS prospect Jackson Merrill could be playing middle infield, LF or CF.
5) Mackenzie Gore would be the #4 Starter
6) Xander and his exorbitant salary may not even be on this team
The Padres would still have extra money to shore up 1B, DH, OF and Rotation.
I agree Preller’s roster construction is poor overall, but I think a lot of fans tend to overrate what went out to the Nats for Soto:
Abrams is young and improving offensively; however, he has been below average in his first 900 PAs, and OAA hates his glove. Even without Bogaerts on the team, I don’t think he’d be anything more than depth.
Mackenzie Gore has been good, and you can never have enough pitching. However, Gore has surpassed 100 innings only twice in his professional career since 2017, with last year being his highest (~140 IP).
James Wood is fascinating, and I hope he makes it because a big masher patrolling CF would be fun. However, he’s running a K% >30% in AA. He has considerable power to fall back on, but I always hesitate with these offensive profiles. This guy hurt to lose and still does.
Robert Hassell III has been mired in AA and injury since the trade. He’s young but close to becoming a non-prospect at this point. He also needs to be protected for the upcoming Rule V draft.
Susana is so far away there’s no real point in speculating. He’s still got plenty of time to go either way.
So, only 1 of the guys traded would impact the current roster, with a high-profile prospect on the farm and another much further away. I would love a mulligan on the X contract (Jake at his natural position, an extended Kim at SS, maybe Senga in the rotation, better 1B and corner OF options, etc.), but the Soto trade wasn’t some massive misstep.
There is a chance that this will be one of the worst trades in history, depending on development.
Abrams had a 3.4 bWAR last year, is improving, and is only 23 with five years of control left.
Gore is questionable, but still had a 97 ERA+.
Wood is FG’s #6.
Abrams has vastly different evaluations by DRS and OAA. Call it a push, and he’s still a below-average ML bat, albeit with room to grow. I still don’t see how he’d start over any of the current infielders, and his bat does not profile well enough for a corner OF.
I think Wood is a bit overrated, and 2024 top prospects are a little down because of many recent high-end graduations. Don’t get me wrong, I would take him back in a heartbeat, but I find there’s a lot of risk there for a top-10 ranking.
This will not be a Texeira-level trade, which, in my opinion, is the gold standard.
I’m not sure Wood is overrated, but the K rate and other concerns temper the immense upside. He’s like a storm forecast, a cut off low with an associated atmospheric river, could bring historic rain rates, unless the low is to wobble 100 km to west and stalls, and weakens to the point of irrelevance
It absolutely is the gold standard, despite the fact there have been so many epic blunders.
At this point, the only time James Wood would be close to CF is if he was watching from the bleachers. I am fascinated that a kid who is 6’7”, has major holes in his swing, and had nearly 200 strikeouts in A/AA last season is a consensus Top 5 MiLB. Oh well.
Oh yeah, Preller now has the farm system back to top 5 in all of baseball.
In my mind, I’m with you, but I still want to believe he can pull it off.
I like the move. Two-second basemen and leave the SS position empty. More chances to get those Three True Outcome hitters out.
The best infield in baseball
At what? You think it’s better than Riley, Arcia, Albies, and Olson? Please.
LOL, the poverty Padres have a $280 million dollar 2nd basement now. God, that signing looks even worse now.
Sid – check out how much LAD owes their 2b and get back to us.
Longtime….You mean the one that finishes in top 5 of mvp ballot annually?..compared to…
Well, at least 5 out of 10 years he finished in top 5 (one of those was 5).
Of course, Mookie has been more productive no doubt. That really wasn’t the discussion though.
The discussion was about Padres paying 25 mil for a 2b and how that was ridiculous to pay thst misch for a 2b.
The retort was that Dodgers are paying a lot more than that for a 2b.
It wasn’t a comparison of X and Mookie as players against each other.
But you knew that.
To all Red Sox fans crucifying Bloom for Bogaerts…… he and the Sox were right….. this was a massive overpay for a declining player and you are only in year 2….. it is going to get ugly in a few more years.
Where is this decline you speak of? Were they right about Devers and Sale too?
Cooper – Sorry but I think you took the whole story and only told part of it. Bogey got $20MM for 6 years from DD with the opt out mid way that benefited Bogey if he improved. Bogey indeed did improve and was worth $5MM or more per year by the end of year 3 so I fully expect that DD would have extended him prior to his opt out so he would have another 3 year window.
Good GMs have windows they plan on. DD set 2016 to 2022 as his window to win with a specific set of foundational players. Had he not been interrupted in 2019 I believe the core group in 2022 would have included Betts, Bogey, Devers, possibly Benny, Duran and Casas as his two draft picks, Price, Sale, Bello, Houck and Crawford. As 2022 was concluding I think JD would have been traded so Devers could move to DH or Devers would have been traded to improve the defense. Bogey would have been playing for $25 to $27MM for 3 years and Mookie would have been at $36MM.
Bloom destroyed the 2018 roster including Bogey and it made perfect sense for Bogey to not want to re-up with Bloom. The fact that SD over paid should not be blamed on Bogey. If the clubhouse and organization had still been a family, he would have taken a reasonable amount of pay like he did when he took the $20MM despite being one of the best SSs in baseball.
Bogey’s contract won’t get as ugly as Devers. Bogey will be a $25MM a year SS for years. Now they are going to make him a $25MM a year 2B for years and hopefully they don’t hurt his arm with such a change so close to the start of the season. The smart move was to tell him in December so he could have spent 3 months prior to Spring Training creating new muscle memory for throws from second base positions.
Bogey got kicked out of his home team and joined a new organization after 10 years. His oWAR dropped from 5.4 to 4.8 while getting used to his new ball park and he played in 155 games the fourth most of his career.
So like Mookie, he’s moved to a new place and will get used to it and then thrive because he has lots of talent that he showed Boston fans for a decade. He stays in shape and he will be 31 next year not 51!!
He’s not old by any yardstick. He’s in his prime and his numbers will improve in 2024 as he gets accustomed to his new environment. I don’t think insulting him like they did will publicly matter but I am guessing his pride will make this similar to a contract year. I expect a much better year after the disrespect he’s been shown.
TF – I think Bogey will be fine arm-wise. He shouldn’t have to change arm angle or anything, just throw naturally. It’s all about planting your feet right and aligning your body, not switching up your arm.
Remember, they hid story’s damaged arm at 2B in boston for a year, and what blew it up was throwing harder when back at ss, not changing mechanically as far as slots and arm angles
But taking the wide view, the decision making from the Padres becomes questionable. Twice now in recent years they have given around $300MM to a shortstop on a deal longer than a decade, and now neither will be playing short.
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I don’t understand this point from Darragh at all.
Who cares where they are playing? The first $300M guy is a Platinum Glove RF now. The second $300M guy just moved over one spot where his glove is probably a better fit. And, if they don’t extend Kim, Xander can move right back in 2025, so not a long-term problem at all.
Is the Xander contract a good one?
Wide – As of today, YES. An all-star level SS for $25.4MM is a reasonable amount to pay. As the years progress, his production may fall off but the key will be how quickly and how much above $25.4MM did he produce in the early years. His 4.8 oWar and his 110 OPS+ are down from his recent Boston numbers but it was a transition season and that often happens. Not everyone is Mookie who moves elsewhere and finishes 2nd in the MVP his first year in his new home. Bogey should improve in 2024 and hopefully he can repeat his outstanding stat of playing in 155 games.
So the contract can’t be fairly evaluated yet but he’s off to a good start.
“Bogey should improve in 2024.” Based on what? He’s a year older playing a different position. I’ll be a year older too with a new job so I guess I’ll win the lottery.
Without a doubt. At $25 million AAV its a bargain today and will have provided the Padres with surplus value when its complete.
Schildt continuing to do things Bob Melvin could never do.
Like actually manage the team. Love Shildt. Prepared and involved. You can tell the players love him to when things like this happen. He just got Bogaerts to move to a position he has never played in his life.
Kim shoulda been starting SS last yr, lights out glove. Seen he’s in trade talks w/Padres n other teams here in local SD news. Bogaerts still playing 2nd if they move Kim ? Just got my tix to Padres fanfest … yeah baseball is almost here !
If Kim is traded, which is not likely. then Bogaerts would be the SS.
Hopefully, he won’t be traded mid season because the team is competing for a playoff spot. Then, he becomes a FA and its adios. Worst case scenario is the Pads extend him and they are stuck with another expensive long term contract that they can’t afford.
This will be a good experience for Bogey at 2b this year before he moves back to SS next yr after Kim departs and super prospect SS Merrill is converted to OF.
What is interesting is that Merrill has not worked out at SS yet in camp.
How does this GM Preller keep his job? Long before reading this article I had questions about reckless decisions. Mostly on free agent signings but also trades.
“How does this GM Preller keep his job?”
The same way that most people keep their jobs – do what their bosses want.
Preller was almost certainly given a big budget and told to spend it to put a good team on the field
That’s what he did (I know some stat geeks will just look at their spreadsheets and see that they only won 82 games last yea, but you can dismiss those people’s opinions since they have obviously never actually played a sport to realize that sometimes you’re better than the other team, play better than the other than, and still lose. Imagine thinking that that can be captured in one number).
Thats a good move from a defensive standpoint, but to spring that on your starting SS at the last minute is not a smart move.
To do it for a guy that they can’t resign or extend is more like an Arte move.