The Orioles got their ace. Baltimore announced the acquisition of 2021 NL Cy Young winner Corbin Burnes from the Brewers for rookie infielder Joey Ortiz, left-hander DL Hall, and their 2024 Competitive Balance Round A draft pick (#34 overall). Milwaukee designated lefty Ethan Small for assignment to clear the necessary 40-man roster spot.
There’d been speculation as far back as last offseason about the possibility of the Orioles acquiring a top-end starting pitcher. Baltimore has a loaded farm system that has graduated plenty of young talent over the past two seasons. Most of that has been concentrated on the position player side, making it a natural fit for them to leverage that farm depth to bring in an impact starter.
Burnes certainly qualifies. He established himself in the Milwaukee rotation during the shortened 2020 campaign. The righty has finished in the top 10 in NL Cy Young balloting in each of the past four seasons. He won the award in ’21 thanks to an MLB-best 2.43 ERA across 167 innings. Burnes followed up with a National League-leading 243 strikeouts and a 2.94 ERA across 202 frames the following season.
Last season was perhaps his least impressive showing since his 2020 breakout. Yet it could only be classified as a “down” year by Burnes’ immense standards. He remained a top-of-the-rotation pitcher, turning in a 3.39 ERA while logging 193 2/3 innings across 32 starts. His 25.5% strikeout rate was still a few points better than league average, as was his 12.2% swinging strike percentage. He finished eighth in Cy Young voting.
It wasn’t the same level of dominance that Burnes had shown in the preceding three years. He had fanned more than 30% of opponents with a swinging strike rate above 14% in every year from 2020-22. Burnes looked more like his old self down the stretch, however. He carried a 3.94 ERA and a 23.1% strikeout rate into the All-Star Break. In the second half, he fanned 28.6% of opponents while allowing only 2.71 earned runs per nine. Opposing hitters had a pitiful .187/.259/.294 slash line after the Midsummer Classic.
Going back to the start of 2020, Burnes has a 2.86 ERA over 105 appearances. He has punched out nearly 31% of batters faced against a modest 7.1% walk rate. Batters are hitting .197/.262/.308 in nearly 2500 trips to the plate. Neither left-handed nor righty-hitting opponents have had success against him. Outside of a two-week injured list stint early in 2021 because of a finger contusion, he hasn’t missed any time within the last three years.
Burnes is a true ace, one of the 5-10 best pitchers in baseball. He jumps to the top of a rotation that has suddenly gone from Baltimore’s biggest question to one of the higher-upside staffs in the league. Kyle Bradish slots in as the #2 arm after a breakout 2023 campaign in which he worked to a 2.83 ERA over 30 starts. Grayson Rodriguez looks to have turned a corner in the second half. The former top pitching prospect worked to a 4.35 ERA in his rookie season. After being tagged for a 7.35 ERA in his first 10 MLB outings, he turned in a 2.58 mark in his final 13 regular season starts (although he was hit hard in his lone playoff appearance).
That’s a potentially elite top three. Former All-Star John Means returned from Tommy John surgery late last season. Some residual elbow soreness kept him off the club’s playoff roster, but he’s expected to be fully healthy for 2024. If that’s true, he slots in well as the #4 starter. Dean Kremer would likely occupy the final spot, with Tyler Wells and Cole Irvin pushed into season-opening relief roles.
While the O’s could perhaps benefit from another depth addition or two, they’ve landed the true #1 that should represent the finishing move on an already great roster. Baltimore’s loaded young lineup and excellent relief corps led the team to 101 wins and an AL East title a year ago. The O’s lost star closer Félix Bautista to Tommy John surgery at year’s end but moved early in the offseason to sign Craig Kimbrel as a replacement.
It’s likely a one-year acquisition. Burnes will hit free agency next offseason shortly after his 30th birthday. With anything like his typical levels of production, he’ll be in line for a massive contract that could top eight years and $200-250MM. Burnes has been clear about his desire to test his value on the open market. Asked in December about the possibility of signing an extension if he were traded this winter, he said such an offer “would have to be something that would just absolutely blow you away to get you away from testing the free agent market.”
As recently as last week, O’s fans wouldn’t have been able to dream about the organization putting that kind of proposal on the table. Baltimore has dramatically scaled back spending since John Angelos assumed control of the franchise. On Tuesday, the Angelos family agreed to sell the organization to private equity mogul David Rubenstein. How that’ll impact the long-term payroll outlook remains to be seen, but Baltimore fans can be more optimistic about the chances of making significant investments once Rubenstein takes control of the franchise after the sale is approved by MLB in the coming months.
In any case, the primary focus is installing Burnes atop next year’s rotation. The three-time All-Star had settled on a $15.637MM contract with Milwaukee to avoid arbitration in his final season of eligibility. That makes him the highest-paid player on Baltimore’s roster and pushes their 2024 payroll projection to roughly $96MM, as calculated by Roster Resource. It’ll be their highest season-opening payroll since 2018 and is a marked increase over last year’s approximate $60MM mark.
Still, they’re in the bottom third of the league in projected spending. They’re making a push to defend a title in what is annually one of the sport’s most competitive divisions. Their only commitments beyond this season are a $1MM salary for Bautista and a handful of inexpensive option buyouts. Even if this takes them near their spending limit this offseason, they should have flexibility to further bolster the roster near the deadline.
That Baltimore did so without surrendering any of their true top-tier prospects reflects both the strength of their talent pipeline and the value ceiling for any player who is only one year from free agency. Ortiz and Hall are each highly-regarded young players but placed in the back half of Baltimore’s top 10 prospects at Baseball America.
Ortiz, 25, was a fourth-round pick in 2019 out of New Mexico State. He’d drawn praise for his defensive acumen dating back to his time in college. The right-handed hitter has been more productive at the plate than many amateur scouts anticipated. He owns a .286/.357/.449 slash in his minor league career. Ortiz posted even better numbers between the top two levels of the minors a year ago.
In 389 plate appearances in Norfolk, he hit .321/.378/.507 with nine homers and 30 doubles. Ortiz spent most of his time at shortstop while logging some action at both second and third base. Baltimore promoted him for the first time at the end of April. He nevertheless spent most of the season on optional assignment, appearing in only 15 big league contests. With Jackson Holliday and Gunnar Henderson as the projected left side infield for the foreseeable future, Ortiz would have had a hard time finding much playing time.
Baseball America’s scouting report rates Ortiz as a potential 70-grade (plus-plus) defensive shortstop. Assuming he’s not traded in the next six weeks, Willy Adames will open the season at shortstop. Milwaukee is likely to lose Adames to free agency next winter at the latest, though, leaving a clear path for Ortiz to emerge as the long-term answer. In the short term, he should battle Andruw Monasterio and Owen Miller for playing time at third base. If Monasterio or Miller warrant extended run at the hot corner, Ortiz is an alternative to Brice Turang at second. Turang is a gifted defender but struggled at the plate during his rookie year.
Hall, also 25, was a first-round pick out of a Georgia high school seven years ago. The 6’2″ southpaw has had the same general profile for his entire professional career: huge stuff with worrying control issues. Hall made his MLB debut in 2022 and has logged 33 big league innings over the past two seasons. He owns a 4.36 ERA with a 29% strikeout rate while working almost exclusively in relief.
His 7.6% walk percentage at the MLB level isn’t out of the ordinary. Hall has been a lot less consistent at throwing strikes in the minors, however. He handed out free passes to over 13% of batters faced in 49 innings at Norfolk a year ago, which is right in line with the 13.4% walk rate he owns in his minor league career.
That he also punched out nearly a third of batters faced in Triple-A hints at the excellent arsenal he owns. His fastball averaged nearly 96 MPH in his big league relief work. Hall also worked with a mid-80s slider and changeup while occasionally mixing in a curveball. BA’s scouting report notes that all four of those offerings could be plus or better.
It’s top-of-the-rotation caliber stuff, but Hall’s strike-throwing has led many evaluators to project him as a high-octane reliever. Milwaukee could use him in either capacity. The Brewers have ample opportunity in the rotation behind new staff ace Freddy Peralta. Veteran lefty Wade Miley is a steadying presence. After that, Milwaukee could lean on any of Colin Rea, injury returnees Joe Ross and Aaron Ashby and prospects like Hall and Robert Gasser in the rotation.
Neither Ortiz nor Hall has reached one year of major league service. They’re each under club control for at least six seasons and three years away from arbitration. They’re the kind of high minors players that Milwaukee frequently targets. Their organizational philosophy, much like that of other small-market franchises like the Rays and Guardians, is to eschew traditional competitive windows while building the farm system by trading veterans as they get close to free agency.
GM Matt Arnold stated that trading Burnes isn’t the signal of a traditional rebuild (relayed by Curt Hogg of the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel). Last week’s signing of Rhys Hoskins to a $34MM free agent deal that allows him to opt out after next season makes clear they’re not giving up on contending in a wide open NL Central. They’ve shown time and again they’ve nevertheless open to offers on most players to try to remain consistently competitive. After trading Josh Hader at the 2022 deadline led to discontent within the clubhouse, the front office suggested they were less inclined to make those kinds of trades during the season.
Between the shoulder injury that led Milwaukee to non-tender Brandon Woodruff and tonight’s move, the Brewers have subtracted their top two starters this offseason. Milwaukee’s payroll projection drops to around $102MM, per Roster Resource. That’s well below last year’s $118MM season-opening mark. That leaves open the possibility of Milwaukee backfilling the rotation in free agency. Arnold was noncommittal as to whether the team planned to reinvest their payroll savings (via Hogg).
Milwaukee should add a third notable young player with the draft choice they acquired. Milwaukee would have received a compensatory pick had they let Burnes depart in free agency — he’ll surely reject a qualifying offer — but that wouldn’t have been until 2025. Baltimore can make Burnes a QO next offseason (and will, unless he suffers a serious injury). As a revenue sharing recipient, they’d land a compensation pick after the first round in 2025 if he signs elsewhere for at least $50MM.
Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic first reported the Orioles were nearing a deal to acquire Burnes. Jon Heyman of the New York Post indicated the deal was agreed upon. ESPN’s Jeff Passan reported that Ortiz and Hall were among the pieces headed to the Brewers. Mark Feinsand of MLB.com reported the inclusion of the draft pick to complete the deal.
Images courtesy of USA Today Sports.
Wow
Zoinks!
It did not take long after the sale to take action!
Great news not only for Orioles fans, but for Cubs and Reds in 2024.
C’mon Cubs, get Belli while Brew Crew goes belly up. Not a bad trade for Brewers long term, but gotta be a tough ones for their fans to swallow.
This trade was likely in the works for some time. Doubtful the new ownership had anything to do with it.
To be fair, DL Hall was the Orioles #5 prospect in 22 and might have been even higher on the 23 list if he had not graduated off it.
Now I wonder when the Brewers move Adames as well.
The fans of Cardinals Nation also give their approval of the great trade.
I agree Manny..The NL Central is now a two team race Reds and Cubs.
Only when the Cubs replace the offense provided by Bellinger.
I am pretty sure the Cards’ nation would disagree. They are better than you think.
I like Pirates chances as much as any. Division is so weak can’t rule the Cards out. Won’t rule Milwaukee out either. They can still win division without Burnes.
As a reds fan I’m more afraid they got a young pitcher with ace upside and lot of control left and a shortstop who also could be very good lol
@spudchukar I will be very interested to see if their bets on durable, below average pitching pays off—if their offense can overcome it despite the falloff of their best players from 2022 to 2023.
They really appeared to believe their best four in 2022 were going to get close again to 26 bWAR between them.
That it was under 10 explains about 70% of their dropoff b/t 2022 and 2023.
Pirates might surprise! They have enough offensive, comes down to pitching. I believe they have deepest pen.
Cub fan I guess.
Every team is in it none of them are juggernauts.
This was a good trade for both teams, but Orioles win it short term. Tough because it’s a one-year for Burnes who has unequivocally stated he’s testing Free Agency.
I could see them swinging a deal with SF.
I do believe that the Cubs need one more bat to keep it close, Bellinger preferred but Chapman might do – and Chapman is a bad move unless the contract is only 2-3 years.
If desperate (i.e., cheap), Cubs could sign Jorge Soler or J.D. Martinez to DH, but I am doubtful that putting Morel at 3B will go well.
With no moves, Cubs are relying upon Busch to make up for losing Belli – and that it too much of a stretch.
Looks like Angels, Giants and Blue Jays are the remianing competition for Belli and Chapman. I am hoping Angels sign Snell, rather than Belli or Chapman.
Yes, the Lynn/Gibson additions carry some risk, but Gray is quite the asset. The pen is vastly improved, and the Cards pretty much punted on the final 3rd of the season. They moved Flaherty and Montgomery, Arenado didn’t play, likewise Edman, Gorman, Nootbar and Donaldson saw little playing time due to injuries, and Contreras rebounded nicely. I believe their offense will be a top five, and their defense is still really good. Look for Victor Scott and his plus 100 steals and minor league gold glove to man center, moving Edman back to 2nd.
I still have.
Cubs
Reds
Cardinals
Brewers
Pirates
Bottom 3 in any order.
Top 3 either or but 1&2.
“Looks like the Angels, Giants and Blue Jays….” Who are your sources telling you this?
The spud man is a genius.
Adames should be packing his bags. The Ortiz move nearly guarantees that.
Bet the trade was held up awaiting the sale.
Elias knows going in that Burnes will go FA, but that is balancing the near-term return with the long-term loss. Also, They have too many infielders, so its good to return some value.
Adames and something for Luzardo?
The division will be between the Cardinals and Reds. The cubs will be in it only because you can bunt for a HR in that band box.
If Burnes has a good season and helps the O’s go deep into the PO, it could change his mind if the owners offer him enough.
Hopefully he’ll go back to Tampa Bay, who need a SS with Franco headed for some jail time.
The Brewers have been taken to the cleaners. It’s no wonder the Guardians didn’t trade Bieber to the O’s. The return of Ortiz/Hall is pathetic!!!
Doubtful Burnes signs an extension, based on his comments as recently as Tuesday.
That’s because you know nothing about these players You’ll likely change your mind when you learn the value of Ortiz and Hall. Might take you a year or two.
Probably a reason why the trade was put on hold until the sale was announced.
They do have Caminero or just keep Walls.
That’s just silly. What if the previous ownership decided to go scorched earth and sell everyone for peanuts? Of course they approved it.
New ownership green lighted the move that the GM put together. That seems pretty integral.
The NL Central is now a 5 man race. I could see any of the 5 winning or finishing last. I could also see each team winning 80-82 games.
He has good stuff but very bad command. Likely a reliever albeit he could become a dominant closer.
Doubtful the trade occurs at all without the sale.
He will need to have a good year if he wants to cash in when Free Agency comes around. His ERA has been climbing for the last 3 years, his K/9 numbers have been falling and opposition OPS has been going up.
None of that looks good though he is no doubt a good pitcher.
With only 3 legitimate starting pitchers in their rotation, the Pirates have ZERO chance of winning the division.
Yeah, but they got to get to the pen first. Where are their #4 and #5 starting pitchers?
You can book to Pirates finish last in the division. Going into spring training with only 3 legitimate starting pitchers is a joke!
Not necessarily. It could be the formality of the process and the new ownership made some requests to make moves. They just couldn’t be announced until after the sale was official.
Hope springs eternal
One thing to consider is that he was in the NL Central. Some of those teams have been really bad the past few years, and last year teams didn’t play as many games against their own division with the new scheduling changes. So I would expect some NL central pitchers may have had higher ERA last year simply based on playing more games against tougher lineups of hitters….and also not getting easy outs against pitchers, with the new NL DH.
The Orioles are not sold yet. It was an agreement. It takes months to transfer a billion dollar deal like this, not to mention the other owners approving it.
My guess is the Cubs resign Bellinger and Chapman goes to SF. Then they either make JD Davis the DH or trade him for pitching.
Wouldn’t both teams playing in the band box be able to bunt for home runs? How’s that an advantage?
Who’s Donaldson? You mean Donovan?
But yes, the St. Louis offense was crushed by injuries in August and September to where they really only had Goldschmidt, Walker, and Nootbaar left putting up decent numbers.
Not me..Burnes almost single handily kept the Reds out of the post season last year. I’ll gladly risk the Brewers exchanging their Ace for a young SS and a relief pitcher.
You may want to take a longer look at Adames’ numbers last year. No way the Marlins trade Luzardo for a guy who hit .217 with a .700 OPS.
Adames and something, maybe a lot of something, but SS is an issue for Miami.
Burnes is in his final year and has made it known he wants to hit FA. Easy pill to swallow given it makes zero sense to hold him and merely receive a comp pick
Yeah, I think it makes sense for the Brewers. It’s possible that the calculus would have been different if Brandon Woodruff hadn’t been out for the year,
Whoa!
I have dyslexia and read this backwards.
Holy
good golly!
AL East Projections
Baltimore
NY
Toronto
Tampa
Boston
If no further moves were made
LOL. NYY gonna disappoint a lot of people in 2024.
Agree with you except Toronto will be last
Baltimore
New York
Tampa
Boston
Toronto.
Toronto Management has done nothing to help with their pour batting line up after last may be even worse this year and if the pitching does not hold up , last by a long shot , then maybe Rogers will kick those two guys out as President and Assistant GM.
The Yankees will be as good as their players health. If that rotation is healthy, they will be very tough. I do not think they are a first-place team, but they will be in the hunt for the wild card imho.
Toronto has a major league rotation and a fairly good lineup. The Red Sox have neither. The Red Sox have already announced they are unwilling to close the gap to even seize 4th place.
Whoa whoa whoa. Mr Burnes has to pitch in the AL East now not the NL Central
Well, they added a 4-5 WAR DH, a couple of 2 WAR OFers, Stroman, while dealing actually good pitching. They’re a genuine threat to win 90, and none of Tampa, Boston, or Toronto appear to be taking 2024 seriously.
90 wins and 3rd place are there for the taking!
Out of Miller Park and an average defense. The dude is an ace.
Manny – I’d say that order of finish is very much the most likely.
The only thing that could change it is if the Jays or Yanks make a major move.
William – Agreed, so far the Red Sox have made it very clear they are punting on this season. There’s still time to pivot, but I’m not very optimistic about them doing so.
The bookends are right, but Tampa will probably be better than New York and Toronto. Yanks have some flashy names but a lot of albatrosses, and the Jays’ core just isn’t as good as we were told it was going to be.
This really puts pressure on the Yankees if they had ANY hopes of winning the division. They are only a couple of pitching injuries away from being nothing more than a Wild Card Wonder.
Rick – Have you forgotten how dominant Rodon and Cortes can be if healthy? It wasn’t THAT long away.
Every team can sustain key injuries, it’s part of the game … a big part actually.
Wow isn’t what the Yankees screamed when they heard this news!
Introducing the “New” Baltimore Orioles”. Prepare for the new era.
I said in June 2022 it was the beginning of a new Golden Age for the Orioles.
Oh man the Yanks better answer back
They certainly will! I hear Cashman has a line on a DFA pitcher with great advanced metrics.
Darn! I thought it would be four prospects from the Yankees in return for a 34 year old starter who’s pitched just 93 innings in the last three years, and might be back by midseason.
Haha! You win, Mike!
I’ll take a tie. You did just fine.
Clip, great news! Matt Blake needs to stay busy turning cast offs into serviceable relief arms.
Cashman was heard saying “We didn’t think Burnes was a difference maker.”
99CJ: Agreed wholeheartedly on that point. Cease has performed as a 3/4, while Burnes has performed as a solid 2.
Obvious qualifiers are IF Cease stays healthy and IF Blake can get him to return to peak form…. But I don’t like to bet on IFs…..
“…while Burnes has performed as a solid 2.”
What? Burnes is one of the top 5-10 pitchers in MLB, he’s easily an ace.
Well, statistically he’s an 2 right now, imho. Burnes has an ERA+ outside the top ten, as well as a WAR outside the top ten by both Fangraphs (19) and Baseball Reference.
Now, is he an “ace?” I guess it depends on how you define that. But, for some teams he is, for nearly half the league he isn’t (based on the stats above). Thus, I would argue he is a definitive 2, overall, regardless of the team.
“Burnes has performed as a solid 2”?
Bad take
He is an ace caliber pitcher. He has proven himself to be one on a team with bad fielding in a park that isn’t too pitcher friendly. Whether he remains at that level we will find out over the next year or two. There are only a few teams that he would be a number 2 on.
Even if you’re only looking at last season, while it’s arguable as to whether he was an “Ace” in 2023, he was still one of the best 30 starting pitchers in MLB and thus still a #1 starter.
When you look at his track record over the last 4 years, he’s easily an Ace.
Earmbrister: okay. But, it’s subjective and contextual. Define the terms and we will talk. I posted the stats to which I was referring in support of my statement. Feel free to do the same.
Stats are also subjective depending on where the pitcher pitches and for what team. You know an ace when you see it, because they show you, they are. Here is why numbers are nice but can mean little. Jack Morris was the undisputed ace of the Tigers. His stats were fairly good but not hall of fame worthy, yet he is in the hall solely because everyone knew he was an ace and was always the guy you would count on for the big game for his whole career. Jack Morris stat wise is not Burnes using todays metrics, but clearly Morris is an ace.
The view of an ace is also dependent on what other pitchers are on the team. Is Burnes the ace of the Yankees? No. Clearly Cole is. Is Burnes a top caliber pitcher that would be the ace of 2/3 of the teams in baseball? Possibly on all, but surely on most. Some teams have more than 1 ace pitcher. In fact, many teams have had more than one ace.
I understand what your point is with stats, but that isn’t all of it. I would make an argument that Schilling was the ace of the Red Sox in 2004. We all know what Martinez was, and he was an ace, but Schilling was the man, and even I have to admit if the season came down to one game, I would rather have Schilling on the mound, and that is no insult to Martinez. Schilling was just that clutch and just that much of a sure thing when it mattered.
Right, and I don’t dispute what you’re saying in the context in which you wrote it. I simply responded to a comment with using stats as an objective measure for trade value, which is what CJ99 and I were discussing. Burns was overvalued by many and so was Cease in what they were “worth” for a return.
Nonetheless, I used stats to back up the trade value discussion (and how/why they are considered such by acquiring teams) because someone in this thread said I was wrong. I merely explained why the valuation was different and even explained the context/metrics I used to state my opinion.
You guys are using “ace” and I simply said it depends on how one defines “ace.” It does vary based on the discussion. I clearly used stats as the measure by which I was defining a 1-5 rotation. The measure was used in statistical context. I also said he would be a 1 on several teams. But statistically, he didn’t perform as a clear 1 when compared to the league; thus it is team-dependent.
Last, statistics are often used in baseball to determine the top pitchers. One person above said “easily a top 5-10 pitcher” in mlb. But if he pitched worse than 10 pitchers by overall statistica calculations, how can he be defined as a top-10?
Another said, “bad take” with zero informative rebuttal. Presumably this same person believes Burns should’ve netted four top-100 prospects then?
It’s one thing to criticize. It’s another to take statements out of context. But to have no credible or verifiable rebuttal to the statements in their context is ignorant.
IF the most durable pitcher in Majors the last 3 seasons stays healthy? I mean, sure anything can happen, but his health has never been cause for any concern.
I’m guessing the Yankees get one of Snell or Montgomery. With either the Red Sox, Angels, or Giants getting the other.
Yes please! Go get him, O’s!
O’s coming in hot for 2024. This is a great move. That division is going to be a battle all season.
Woot woot Birds! That said; burns me a bit that it took this long to happen. Oh, the agony!
So will the NL Central…for different reasons.
Well timed deal.
Angels prefer to not get anything back for their stars.
… then some Angels fans pretend they’re pleased Ohtani is gone, Carl. Happy they kept him at the deadline, pleased he left in the offseason. Profoundly confused franchise.
That’s crazy
That new ownership feel already hitting
They aren’t even there yet. Lol
It isn’t a stretch to believe that the new ownership blessed this trade before current owners pulled the trigger.
A phone call or a text like: “hey, we can pull this off, you good with that or no?”
Absolutely makes sense Long Time.
Joe – No, it doesn’t. Maybe if he had signed a monster extension, but that doesn’t appear to be the case. This is merely the Angelos family wanting to try one last time to win a championship before they hand over the team.
Championships aren’t won in February in MLB.
For the Dodgers, it was won in December 2023
It’s handed over. Rubenstein is the control person effective immediately, pending league approval. League approval is a formality here. No one in the sport doesn’t want this.
I wouldn’t bet the ranch on that
They committed 1.7 billion dollars. Believe me they are already there. The other owners are celebrating the sale and will approve it and Rubinstein in control next week!
C’mon people! There is no new ownership yet. There’s an AGREEMENT in place for a new owner but it’s still MONTHS away from ACTUALLY HAPPENING.
Prospect – Thank you for being the voice of reason here. I know kids tend to be impatient, but there’s no way the Angelos family is gonna take a financial hit in their last season.
Remember John said this just last year: “When people talk about giving this player $200 million, that player $150 million, we would be so financially underwater that you’d have to raise the prices massively.”
Big W
Baltimore fleeced them! Hall and Ortiz will never be stars in MLB. Burnes is a star and well worth the cost of acquisition. Getting the #34 overall pick was a wise move though. That could end up being the best ‘player’ in this deal for Milwaukee
Both could be stars. Maybe not the superstar level that Burnes has achieved to this point. But both could make an AS team or two.
Is Josh Hader a star? Because DL Hall could develop into that one day.
Ortiz will not be a star but solid everyday players have plenty of value. Milwaukee did well too.
Hall looks likely to blossom into Hader.
Ortiz is much better than people think. He was a joy to watch in AAA. I think he could be a star. I wanted him to start at 2B last year and I wanted him to start there in 2024…until now.
His numbers in AAA where good but there are some caveats:
1. He is very experienced and old for the level. This likely boosted his stats, he was simply too advanced for those pitchers.
2. The AAA park likely made his power to play up.
3. His plate discipline looked solid but his 8% walk rate in AAA is not great as automated balls and strikes inflated walk rates. More likely he will walk 6-7% in the majors. His contact tool is solid though (86% zone contact in his small mlb sample) but I think he probably will be a low obp guy who hits like 250/300/350 with 10-12 Homers which is like a 90 wrc+ or so hitter.
Projections also have quite some range.
Zips has him at 247/296/366 while steamer has him at 266/318/403
Not sure if steamer regressed his AAA numbers enough for his age.
You can cross #2 off your list: Harbor Park suppresses power. Here are the ballpark effects: R HR H
Harbor Park Norfolk Tides 0.973 0.861 0.981
Read that again: 0.861 HR effect. If you think his home park affected his power, then he will have more pop in MLB.
#3 is half wrong: automated balls and strikes were used in 50% of games; the other half used an appeal process.
Ortiz’s AAA slashes :
.346 .400 .567 .967
.321 .378 .507 .885
That’s a .390 OBP in AAA. It’s not probable that any player would drop to .300 in MLB, especially not someone who is HR or bust through 600 PAs. Far more likely his OBP is ~ .330. With 10HRs and 30 2Bs, his slugging will be .390+ to fill him out ~ 100 OPS+. That’s @ 1.5 WAR playing everyday in addition to 2+ WAR as a premium defensive SS. 3.5 WAR is nothing to dismiss. Last year that would put him in with Trea Turner and Manny Machado for ~ #55 offensively. fwiw, bref projects him at .716 OPS which would translate to 100 OPS+ last year.
The age is overplayed; forgive him for going to college. No reason to believe that he will regress more because of his age than it is for Michael Busch. Or than it was for Nelson Cruz.
All good points. Also, Ortiz isn’t old for level. He was 3.5yrs then 2.5yrs *young* for level in AAA the last 2yrs. Watching his tape, this kid is underrated and I’m assuming it’s because his bat didn’t show up until 2021 A+ when he was 1yr young for level. and he’s improved since over the last 2yrs. His approach is excellent. His bat to ball skills are excellent. Almost half of his balls in play are 95mph+ EV. He, like Tyler Black, have underrated pop as well.
Now add to that him playing a premium defensive position and being very good – plus there as well, depending where he ends up post-Adames trade.
All these reasons are why I’d rather have Ortiz than Mayo. Hall will be interesting to watch given they’ll give him every shot to stick in the rotation but worst case he’s another elite back end pen arm, which Milwaukee seems to continue to pump out. That comp pick could end up being (3) Top 100 players in return for 1yr of Burnes with two being MLB ready, 6yrs control
Win/Win trade
Average age in AAA doesn’t mean much, there are Lots of 27 to 31 year old quad A players in AAA who play there to be called up for 2 weeks in case someone and their Backup get hurt.
I agree he isn’t old but there is really not a single incident of a middle infielder becoming an above average regular after making their debut at age 25, middle IF is a young players position.
Or does anyone know a 2b or ss who became a regular after age 25 and became above average
It is their version of acquiring Ohtani the way the Dodgers did. Burnes will bring more revenue and as a baseball fan, it will be unique to have his O’s jersey and sign it since it will never be worn or sold in the stores after the 2024 seasonm
How can you say that with new owners coming in?
As an Orioles fan, I think the trade was fair, simply because it’s just 1 year of Burnes and it’s an added $15M to the roster. Brewers could be making a play at Snell or Montgomery to fill the void, and they get some nice young controllable MLB-ready pieces plus a high draft pick in return.
I’ve never been floored by Hall. Haven’t really seen Ortiz.
Hall. Gifted physically. To me, more of a thrower than pitcher. Good luck with that Milwaukee.
Hall is twice as talented as Oates.
Take that back Scott. Oates had the stache.
Oates needs to write a song about that mustache. Maybe “Womaneater”?
Fangraphs gives Hall an 80 for his fastball.
Ortiz is a GG candidate at SS.
Never know what they will wind up being, but i actually agree. Thats why when everyone says Cease’s price is too high, i disagree. They are asking for a chance thag these prospects pan put and are giving up a proven asset. Over valuaing prospects is the absolute worst thing organizations do. Doesnt mean they arent good, but it also doesnt mean they will ampint to anything either.
True, we don’t know the future, re. prospects. Or for established MLBers, for that matter.
As for Cease, the Anthopolous reaction, claiming to fans that he tried to acquire him but the price was too high, is all we have to go on (besides the Reds rumor). It may be that Getz, being new to the job, has been asking too much. Also possible he trades Cease next week, which would make all these claims moot.
This tactic is the same employed by Hahn to acquire Giolito, Lopez and Dunning as well as Cease and Eloy Jimenez, and Moncada and Kopech for Adam Eaton, Jose Quintana and Chris Sale respectively. Sox have always asked high, and it’s worked before. I think Getz being a new GM, there is some thought around the league that they don’t want to be taken for a ride by a 1st year GM. But your right, once Jackson Holliday is traded for Cease it will be moot . /s (hopefully not needed)
I really hope Cease gets traded just so I can judge the return he gets.
I started grinning so big with excitement, holy cow this is awesome!
Wow, that came outta nowhere. Good for the O’s.
Now we can’t make ironic “Rubinstein going hard” jokes.
This puts the Boo Birds neck and neck with the Rangers in my humble opinion.
I like how the 87 wild card Rangers were supposedly ever “ahead” of the 101 win champ of arguably the most competitive division in the game at any point.
nj – Postseason is a whole different bird.
Look no further than the Rays postseason history since 2009.
Can’t argue with that assessment on the Rays. I will say that the Rays feel like a successful group to me though. Just no World Series win to show for it. It’s hard to win a championship. Look at the teams who have cheated just to win it. It just goes to show you how hard it is to do. Man Fred that mutt will let you get away with it too, if you have the nerve to try it. Better to ask for forgiveness than permission they say.. Fever pitch is right about the postseason.
Different look to a team pre-deadline and post deadline. Then take away all #5’s from the teams plus see who’s healthy. Rangers had a very good trade deadline.
Rangers got hot at the right time. They were never the better team.
Except for the premium injured starting pitchers that will return at some point.
Rubinstein moving and shaking already. Look forward to the AL East competition!
He doesn’t own the team, yet.
But in spirit, he’s all up in there like chin hair
Really? The agreement is in place and MLB owners will quickly approve next week so you can be sure Rubinstein is already at the helm.
It’s not on the docket for next week and MLB said it would be several months so no, you’re wrong.
The stove is getting warm again
Yeah, this might heat things up. The Yanks almost have to respond. Probably not Sox or Ray’s, but maybe Toronto too.
According to two twits running the Blue Jays
They are done with their moves happy with what they have . That’s the difference between the people running Baltimore and like I said the twits running the Toronto organization
Please provide a link where the FO states they’re done making moves. I’ll save you the trouble…you can’t because it doesn’t exist they’ve never said it.
JFC, I swear Jays casuals are some of the most ignorant, misinformed crybabies on the internet.
Can’t be worse than the two twits running the Yankees. Running them into the ground. Hal Steinbrenner and Brian “Dumpster Diver” Cashman. What a joke.
Have you bothered reading Atkins last two press conference
It’ll probably be like me trying to burn a brush pile yesterday. Get a little fire going just for it to go out again.
Oh-face.
Same.
I was on a group text after the sale and said, “I think I just came.” Now it’s multiple O’s.
Well that escalated quickly.
Coby Mayo will be the centerpiece.
Not a chance. Ortiz is.
DL Hall*
Hall may very well end up being the most significant piece. His floor is basically “we have Josh Hader at home.”
Yeah, Hall is Hader round 2. But, at least he’s not in division. And, Bautista would have blocked him every year except 2024 anyways. I’ll take Bautista over Hall any day of the week.
I am, however, wondering how this affects -Rod and Adley and the other guys with whom DL was a big piece of the group.
I’m sure they’re a little bummed to lose their boy but nothing drastic here. DL’s basically been in Norfolk the last 2 years.
Hall & Bautista would’ve been electric out of the pen together. Sucks to lose that possibility but happy to gain Burnes.
That’s not PC — his name is now IL Hall.
Holy grail!!!
Yankees counter by signing Domingo German!
German would be a much better 5 than Schmidt.
German at this point could be poison in the clubhouse.
Perhaps, but it doesn’t change the fact that he has more upside than Schmidt. I just can not fathom that Cashman, and so many Yankee fans are A-OK with Schmidt being the 5th starter. He’s average at best. He’s fine as a spot starter, if (when) someone gets hurt, or if they’re playing a double header, but penciling him in as our #5, is as bad as going into last season, with no legit outfielder. I’d feel much better with Luis Gil as the 5th starter, and Schmidt as a long reliever, or even a set-up man. The Yankees (Cashman) blew it big time by not trading for Burns, or even trying to sign Hader. Am I the only one not sold on Clay Holmes as our closer? He’s OK, but he’s no Josh Hader. Plus, we also lost Wandy Peralta, who was a good lefty out of our pen. I’m sure Cashman will find someone on the waiver wire to replace him. Cashman has become Billy Beane 2.0
Uh oh
Ortiz and Hall.
I’m high on Ortiz, but he was log jammed unfortunately. Good trade, no complaints here.
I hate losing Hall. Think he’s gonna be a really nasty reliever.
Burnes is exactly what we need right now though. Can’t complain about that cost.
Same, I think Ortiz is going to have a very solid career. Great get for MIL.
@Floch
Yeah. I would’ve preferred we dealt Povich tbh. With Burnes in the rotation—Hall slides right into this years pen and makes us better.
Oh well. Cost of the acquisition.
BrianStrowman9: Why would you want to given up Povich instead of Hall? I agree that DL Hall
can/will be a nasty reliever, however, Povich has major upside. I’d rather keep the higher ceiling of Povich & see how his development progresses.
And obviously Mike Elias agrees with you. Hall does have electric stuff and calmed down with the walks last year. Milwaukee got a pretty good return there.
@prospects
You think Povich’s ceiling is higher?
I don’t. I think he could possibly be a mid rotation starter. That’s good and valuable but a wipe out reliever is much more valuable right now to the ‘24 O’s. Hall was ready now.
NYY back to 3rd, maybe 4 in east. Will Steinbrenner-in-name-only let Cashman sign Snell?
Followed in last by Toronto
Hey Theodore, where do you think Toronto will finish this season? Please post about it a few more times.
Assuming the Red Sox have been relegated to AAA in this scenario?
10Cent: Imho, no, he won’t. They will not pay anywhere near what Snell wants (and honestly, I don’t blame them if he truly wants 9/$270). However, there are moves to be made if they really want to put all the chips on the table for ‘24 (imo, they won’t do that).
I’d pay for Snell right now. Someone said it below, but we’re in Feb, 200mil/8yrs would be a solid offer.
Depends on how the Redsox young players perform. Wouldnt rule out the cellar.
Never. Doubt. Elias.
True that
Damn. Good for the O’s
Can’t wait to see what the return will be. If the Brewers play this right it could really set them up for the future.
Now try. Or bloviate about the Tigers finishing 2nd.
No idea what you are talking about dude. I also posted right after this that this should make your team the top AL WS contender. Go enjoy your win.
Holy Schneikes!
Wow, one of the few teams with plenty to get him, and arguably the one team that needed to make this type of move at this time…. I am very curious about the return…
Excellent move. Congratulations O’s fans, this year is looking bright for you. Hopefully this is just a sign of things to come under and ownership that goes after it.
Classy answer YC. This makes too much sense. And in spite of the rumors, they were never gonna get off their wallet for Snell.
YC
Don’t you mean they are going to ruin baseball?
/s
100% Even though this is gonna be tough on the yanks I do appreciate seeing moves that make this much baseball sense and the O’s showing real life after all the John Angelos bs regarding their plans with this core and window. Not pushing chips in with all this young talent is the greatest of sins against the baseball gods!
This is a great ripple move. It moves 4 starters down a slot and tosses the 5th into the pen or the minors. I also expect a slight improvement to the young hitters. With a true ace this club is very formidable.
Totally. To my mind this looks like the most impactful single player acquisition we’ve seen so far this off-season.
Dude are you serious right now lol
Um yeah. Problem? For the 2024 season I absolutely think it is and that’s the sense I was thinking about it in, although I didn’t make that clear I suppose.
Juan Soto would like a word.
What word was that? His team drastically underperformed with his leadership last year.
They underperformed? Or did you overrrate them like you did your own Mets?
To downplay the significance of Soto versus a guy pitching once a week would be foolish on your part.
Baltimore just got their number 1 starter. Looking like AL WS favorites after that move.
A 100 win team adds a number 1 starter. Impressive.
And gets the former number 1 back after a full offseason (Means)
Not saying means is without upside but idk that I would have called him a #1 in the sense of being an ace like burnes, Cole, and guys like that.
He was the O’s number 1. He’s not a Cole, Burnes, etc. agreeed. But it’s nice to have him back and slotted in as a #4
He’s potentially a valuable rotation piece for sure. Just wasn’t clear on which definition of #1 u were using lol.
The Ace/TOR/#1 terms are nebulous.
And, Ra? They aren’t THAT nebulous and there’s plenty of other baseball terms that are nebulous and subjective. Doesn’t mean there isn’t a clear distinction here.
You said it yourself. You were not clear on the definition. I was agreeing with you. Now you are mad. You OK?
Nah I just misconstrued the tone of your comment. My bad!
Great move for both sides. I hate to lose Ortiz and Hall, both of whom I am very high on, but, well…
CORBIN BURNES!
Excellent
Burnes takes some pressure off Braddish and Rodriguez
So Burnes, Braddish, Rodriguez, Means then innings eater Kremer. Free up Wells to be a set up guy and back up to Kimbrel.
Let’s go. Didn’t need to sell the farm either. This is the dream trade. Let’s go!
If that’s all the Brewers could get for Burnes it doesn’t bode well for CLE and the return they can expect for Bieber
The comp pick after Bieber leaves will be a better prospect
2 top 100 prospects, it looks pretty good. I think hall will be flipped in 4 years or so for a big return too. He’s got the stuff to be dominant in the 8th and 9th for a long time. This trade will keep on giving.
Not just 2 Top 100 but both are MLB ready so less risk than a Top 100 in low minors. Plus the comp pick that could absolutely turn into a third Top 100 in 1-2yrs
So long, partner.
So happy to get him but you guys did pretty great on the return. Hall has the stuff to be Hader 2.0 and Ortiz is MLB ready and has a really high floor thanks to his excellent SS defense and contact skills.
Don’t gotta tell me. I was in favor of dealing Burnes.
New owners then sign Burnes to an extension. That’d be nice.
I have a feeling with Cal as part of the ownership group, that they’re gonna open their wallets a bit. Gonna be a fun team to watch, for sure!
Why? He’s not the rich one comparatively.
Cal has nothing to do with anything on the decision making side,
Is that what he told you bruh
If you can’t tell a figurehead when you see one, you should make sure there is a responsible adult with you for every life decision.
Burnes has already said he wants to test FA and won’t sign an extension with any team. Don’t blame him knowing he’ll be the top SP on the Market next year.
That can change. Once his agent Boras finalizes deal for Snell this month, they may come up with a magic number for Balt to ponder…..especially if Burnes is pumped about the future of young/dynamic team.
I think it’s going to be a pure rental, but Rubenstein may back up the Brinks truck to re-sign him in free agency to make a statement in his first offseason as owner. That would be neato lol.
my first thought was adding DL Hall was a bit rich as he’s going to be good and is a southpaw. esp as I thought there was zero chance that Angelos would have any interest in extending him.
BUT, there’s a non-zero chance that Rubenstein’s group may work out a deal to get more than a 1 yr rental for Burnes. IF that happens, wow… Have a great career with Milwaukee, Ortiz and Hall. it would be the trade that benefitted both teams alike.
hoping that happens, we’ll see. Deal isn’t even approved nor signed yet. Although, I would think with Rubenstein’s business successes, he doesn’t seem like the hemming and hawing type worried about buyer’s or seller’s remorse. Easy to do when signing a pitcher to a long term extension can be done with the change in your sofa cushions.
Yesterday was surprising enough, im pinching myself with this news. Scared it’s all some kind of dream from the chili we had last night.
I don’t think DL is ever gonna be a starter but it does sting to lose him. Ortiz had no role here and a draft choice is just the cost here.
Hall would’ve been nice to plug into the pen. Not too many guys throwing 100 mph from the left side. I’ll bet on him having a nice career as a reliever. MIL did well here too.
If y’all don’t believe that Cal doesn’t have a big say in meetings, and knows that his share of the O’s is part of his legacy, then take the night and think about it. He didn’t join the ownership group to be known as a failed ‘owner’. Guarantee you he’s gonna push hard to get them over the hump. Not even an O’s fan btw..just seeing the writing on the wall, and respect what they’re doing. You think it was a coincidence that this trade went down a day after the ownership group was announced?
No Oriole fan believes Ripken is going to be hands on, whether coaching wise or on financial decisions.
What’s he going to do to “get them over the hump?” Hit fungoes???
And exactly how would a silent partner be deemed a “failed owner” if he is not taking part in day-to-day operations?
You’re talking like a Cal fanboy. And a fanboy from a distance, at that.
Looks like Milwaukee is planning to be bad.
It’s a shame, I was hoping to see Chourio play for something…
Not necessarily. Both guys coming back are in the Show or just about ready.
I know but I was hoping when Chourio makes it to the Big League, he would play on a contending team.
AY: With Burnes gone next year, this trade actually increases the likelihood of Chorio joining a contender when he arrives.
Maybe…
Please..they are losing their ace not matter how you look at it and their rotation wasn’t that good to start with.
How so? Trading Burnes for this haul is just smart!
Not talking smart because I;m not a brewers fan, just want to see the young chourio in the playoffs in the next few years i sure hope so
Angels disagree!
Why? By having premium rookies start all year. They could be better with all these young hitters.
Not in my opinion
Looks like they are planning on starting Ortiz at SS 140 games to shore up the infield defense.
Now this is what big boy teams do Orioles. Good job for no more of your Kyle Gibson/Cole Irvin bullcrap
Cole Irvin is still on the team FYI
…And it was a good trade. The Orioles were so deep, the player they traded for Irvin was named Minor League Player of the Year for the Athletics. Hernaiz may have an MLB career ahead of him.
Just makes you realize just how crazy Ellis’ first draft was.
Irvin sucks. It wasn’t a good trade for Baltimore, especially for what they needed.
It was an irrelevant trade and it’s kind of weird to still be talking about it. Particularly with recent developments.
You realize Irvin pitched to a 3.22 ERA over 64 innings after tweaking things and returning to the Orioles in June.
Oh, right, of course you didn’t, since you were not paying attention. Just looking at WAR and making assumptions.
Irvin’s a fine depth starter. But we probably L that trade. Hernaiz didn’t have any room for ABS here any longer though. He was really never going to factor in for the Major league club.
Irvin will be the #6 & long man. More useful to the 2024 O’s but the A’s got the better value. I think Hernaiz will be a nice super utility player.
The concept of winning and losing trades is pointless, imo. Irvin had proven to be durable and is a lefty. Hernaiz may have a good MLB career but was not going to have a career in Baltimore. Both teams benefited. For anyone focused on who “won” that trade, it is far, far too early to tell.
This offseason made me and a bunch of other people feel so stupid…
Trading Burnes without getting one of the O’s top 5 prospects back feels like an L for the Crew
There 6 would be number one in a lot of organizations
Mets69 that’s just not true. Maybe two orgs but certainly not most.
Didn’t say most. The 63rd ranked prospect in baseball is nothing to sneeze at.
100% agree, if your gonna make a blockbuster trade that everyone was talking about to the best farm system the league has seen in a decade, at least get one of their top 5 prospects
They didn’t have that much leverage with Burnes this close to free agency.
Still, expected more…
Based on what? You can be certain that the Brewers shopped him around and took the best offer.
You can’t judge a trade in a vacuum with no information about the market and which teams offered what.
I’m not saying they didn’t take the best offer, I’m saying the offer they accepted wasn’t worth it…
All fans expect more. One year of a player always limits the value.
Listen, everyone is entitled to their own opinion, I think the Orioles underpayed tremendously
More then the 63rd prospect and baseball and potentially top end reliever?
AY
“if your gonna make a blockbuster trade that everyone was talking about to the best farm system the league has seen in a decade, at least get one of their top 5 prospects”
As is typical, u knowledgeable people get things exactly backwards
If a farm system is great, you don’t need as highly ranked of a player as you would from a lower ranked system
The best player in a bad system, for example, might be 10th if they were in the better system
If you trade with a bad system, you better get a highly rated player. If you trade with a good system, you can get a ,over ranked player
That doesn’t make logical sense though, If for example someone is wealthy and he pays someone to mow his lawn, your more likely going to get more from him then somebody poor…
Wealthy people don’t waste their money just because they are wealthy.
Correct, but you are still more likely to get more money because he he has more but even if he didnt, if you were smart you could demand more.
… or the smart person walks away to find a more reasonable price. Wealthy people don’t remain wealthy by allowing people to take advantage of them.
It’s not taking advantage, it’s demanding more because they have more, and they know that
You don’t seem to understand supply and demand. They also know the fair price. They aren’t going to pay a rich tax to the guy mowing the lawn. They tell him to go away and hire someone for the normal price
Clearly the Brewers were extremely willing to trade Burnes so not really
Never seen a Gardner ask how much someone makes in the negotiation of price?
Laughably bad analogy, AY. You must have botched that section of the SATs. And the spelling part, too (the word is “underPAID.”)
Oh boo-hoo. Greedy perspective. Two good players, MLB ready, six years of control, and a draft pick – Brewers just got their future SS & closer for one year of Burnes. You’re too focused on rankings. This was a great deal for both sides.
Rich people actually wind up getting the best deals because of the way the system works. They have cheaper costs of capital & typically have economy of scale advantages.
And, AY, that willingness to trade Burnes may have compromised their leverage enough to lessen the offers available to them.
I don’t really care about my spelling on MLB Trade Rumors lol, I’m typing fast so as long as you’re able to tell what I’m saying its fine for me….
If a farm system is great, you don’t need as highly ranked of a player as you would from a lower ranked system
============================
Referring to what number a team’s prospects rank is about as meaningless as a number can be. What you really want to know, in no particular order:
1-Where they are ranked in the top-150, 200, etc.
2-What their FV is.
3-Are they rising or descending?
I said this during the Betts trade. SD had more 50 FVs than the RS had 40 or better. Our top two might not have been as good as the SD #10.
JB
Kinda like saying “I’ll sell my shoes for the two largest denominations of bills in someone’s wallet”
Maybe that person has hundreds, maybe a bunch of singles. Better to sell it for an amount.
It’s clear you don’t know the word is spelled “paid’ since you repeatedly make the same mistake. But if you don’t want to improve yourself, that’s your call. Not my fault you didn’t learn the basics.
1 year rental. Trade now or pay his salary and risk injury and getting less or nothing. Doesn’t matter how good the other teams farm is. You take the best available offer.
You’ll be happy with Ortiz. Good bat and great defense.
Two 55FV prospects and the #34 overall pick in next year’s draft is a pretty good return.
The brewers got roughly equal value to the comp pick they’d have got if they held him for 2024 and did a qo without the risk of injury in that scenario. And they got two well regarded mlb ready prospects on top of that. I’d call that a pretty good deal for a one year rental.
@yordan. The Brewers still managed to land a top 100 prospect, with company. For a one year rental, this is actually a pretty good haul. I get that you just have the opinion the Brewers should have gotten more. Perhaps you would be willing to Google best one year rental trades? If you do you will find that one year of even an ace like Burns just isn’t going to get you much. Not trying to pick on you as I can see you’ve had a lot of replies but I think if you put this trade in the context of trades like this you would see that the Brewers actually did pretty well.
Agree – pretty poor return vs trying to win a weak NL Central. Winning in the playoffs involves much more luck than people think – getting in gives you a chance.
@pmck003: Brewers’ management obviously didn’t believe their chances of winning next year with Burnes were good enough to pass up the opportunity to fortify their system for the future.
Ortiz was #6 on MLB Pipeline and Hall is a beast.
Plus an extra first round-ish pick.
They did pretty great for 1 year of Burnes honestly.
Shows you the market for getting 1 year of someone – even an ace.
This is a take a lot of folks have and it just doesn’t make sense. 1yr of Burnes isn’t returning you the #1 or 17 overall prospect. That leaves 3 guys left and 2 of them play OF where the Brewers currently have Yelich + 3 Top 100 (Frelick, Mitchell, Wiemer) + current #2 overall prospect.
That only leaves Mayo left and I personally would much rather have Ortiz. Excellent bat to ball skills, high hard hit rate, line to line, rarely strikes out + he plays a premium defensive position at a high level. Literally none of that applies to Mayo, who has a better arm with much more HR power. Mayo likely ends up at 1b where the Brewers have Rhys for 1-3yrs + Tyler Black (MLB ready Top 50) and Brock Wilken (1st Rd pick last year who already made it to AA). Also, Ortiz is underrated
Everybody get in here!
Nice
Doesn’t that seem kinda light
My thoughts exactly. But it does read, “as part of the return,” so I guess we will see.
This is a zesty acquisition for the Orioles
Very spicy indeed, love it!
Adames next?
Dodgers maybe?
I would like to think that Brewers will either extend Adames or sign Woodruff.
Understandable. But Ortiz is 25, they might just give him the job and trade Adames.
Marlins need a SS, and could trade pitching. But they would probably prefer Ortiz over Adames.
Ortiz is the long-term shortstop, but Adames could play 3B or 2B. But I would not be surprised if Adames gets traded either..
Exactly.
Adames is half way out the door with this trade IMO.
I don’t really understand the Hoskins signing paired with this move though so maybe I’m wrong. Joey Ortiz needs to play in the major leagues next year though.
I think Ortiz is future SS. Would trade Adames.
100%, Ortiz is going to be a regular Web Gem fixture at SS for years to come.
Not sure why they would sign Adames. Dude had a .700 OPS last year.
Ownership like aight enough talk let’s get into this.
Finally. Someone in the AL East actually wants to win.
They opposite of what Boston and Tornto are doing playing to lose
For what Milwaukee got in return Boston and Toronto Management sitting on their asses
I wouldn’t want to beat that trade package. Those teams have much weaker prospects.
Red Sox farm system is actually decent
My Dream GM would definitely want to trade for the best players possible.
So, you’re definitely NOT my dream GM
So is he your Nightmare GM?
Ed
Much closer to that, yes
have anything new to say, OY? that opinion is so tired.
Re MacG
OY is nothing but a troll
Comes here ro make stupid taeks to get reactions out of people because they cant get a reaction for saying anything useful. And refuses to ever back up their trolling statements with any substance
That right, OY?
You gonna accept the bet about Chapmam or no? Or are you, like always, just talking out of your [donkey]?
This made my night as a reds fan, we will probably still lose a lot to the brewers like we did last year lol.
Especially with a lot of question marks still in the starting rotation.
Fantastic move by the O’s!
I like this deal for the Os. Not so much for the Brew Crew, although I’ll need to wait on the full return.
I like this for one team and don’t like this for the other even though I have no what the return is, lol.
At the time of posting Joey Ortiz and left-hander DL Hall were reported. So I didn’t love it for the Brew Crew, hence my post. Now that we know the full deal, the Brewers also got picks. So I stand by my statement. I thought the Brewers could have gotten a better return.
Ortiz is a legit SS prospect
Should stick at ss. Unless he bulks up more and then his bat should play elsewhere.
Hall, Ortiz, and an extra first round-ish pick for 1 year of Burnes is actually a really good return. Hall has ace/elite closer type of stuff and Ortiz has an extremely high floor thanks to his excellent SS defense, plus there is whatever the pick turns into.
I think the SS position has changed quite a bit, and a purely defensive SS isn’t as appealing as it once was. That being said, Hall is the big piece here. Hope he works out.
I just hate when a contender trades a piece they could use. The Brewers aren’t far away, especially in the NL Central.
We know DL is a nice piece, what do Orioles fans think of Ortiz?
Can easily be among the top 5 defensive SS in the game. If he can hit above .250 with just decent power, he’s a long term starter easily. The bat is the only question, how well he’ll handle MLB pitching..
Batting for shortstops has become a near must now days. Glove guys at short don’t really move the needle now days.
He’s 26 this summer too so it’s make it or break it time
Yeah that’s kind of old for a prospect.
No question has power has improved since his college days, but it’s still probably below average. He’s also not particularly fast
(MLB pipeline gives him a 45 on both, but a 55 on hit.) The crux of the question as to whether he’ll hit enough is really, will his contact be hard enough for his ground balls and line drives to get through or land in the majors. Personally I think he’ll be a 3.5 WAR guy, give or take.
I think Ortiz will be a slightly above average starting SS for a long time. The kind of SS that a shrewd team like MIL uses. Defense gives him a really high floor. He’ll chip in some steals too.
TBD what you get from him hitting wise. That’ll determine just how good he becomes.
He’s been raking in AAA. Great glove. Brewers fans will be happy with him.
I’d have loved for the team to keep him, but with Holliday and Henderson around, it’s really better for him to go somewhere where he can get a chance to play short. Happy for the guy and wish him the best.
I think he’s underrated. He has always had a reputation of defense and no power since coming out of college. He has bulked up during pandemic and raked since. He seems to not be able to shake the reputation though despite putting up excellent offensive numbers in AAA
As an Orioles fan I think DL Hall will do better with the chance of scenery and Ortiz will do good in Milwaukee and hopefully Milwaukee will get a decent player from the Comoetitve Balance Round A draft too
Excellent defender at SS and excellent bat-to-ball skills. If he puts up a .700-.750 OPS, he will be a top 10ish SS in MLB.
I actually think Jeremy Peña down in Houston is a great comp. He might hit better than Pena too. Not a bad everyday SS.to have around.
I have seen that comp before and agree with it. Pena is faster but I have more faith in Ortiz’s ability to hit for a higher average.
Ortiz: ++ defender who showed BA and power in the minors. Said to have a suboptimal swing path, but that could possibly be tweaked. Doesn’t have to be if everyone is OK with 40 2Bs and 10 HRs.
Not an Os fan by any means but I’m thrilled for the fans and stoked that the new ownership is making moves already.
New ownership isn’t in place to make this deal yet
Maybe new ownership is not in place, but you can be sure deal would not have occurred without their blessing.
@manny
Exactly, I would be elated just knowing the Angelo’s are going to be ousted but to get ARGUABLY the second best pitcher in MLB for an infield prospect who honestly was blocked and would never set a foot in Camden Yards and a DL Hall who has had his struggles and a draft pick . I would be hysterical if I was a birds fan. You just won the AL East and got a legitimate Ace now! I wouldn’t be shocked if a bat is next . (Soler possibly?)
White Sox fans/Chicago Media: “Cease is a BEAST, worth 4 top 100 prospects at least.”
Chris Gets: *defecating in pants after seeing this trade”
Lol, yeah I’m willing to bet the Cease market has diminished massively
with this deal
Or teams who wanted Burners are ready to pivot to a lesser dude.
Can you imagine the O’s acquiring Cease as well? Hah
That would be bold!
I’m willing to bet the Cease market has diminished massively
==============================
Not at all. If one year of Burnes is worth two fringy top-100 prospects and a high draft pick, then two years of Cease is worth 4 fringy top-100 types.
One year of Burnes pretty close to 2 years of cease trade value, IMO.
Cease has an extra year. Burnes is a rental.
That’s a good point fellas ^^^^^
I know, but at the end of the day the Brewers got practially nothing compared to what the O’s have to offer from the farm system…
Burnes has been a much better pitcher the last four years. Definitely a much higher floor.
100 percent true but what we’re the other managers doing while Baltimore gave up.
Specifically Yankees , Red. sox and Blue Jays
I’m not understanding your question..
It doesn’t matter what they have to offer. It only matters what the player is worth.
Just because the Orioles have better to offer, doesn’t mean they would. They only have to beat the other offers, not blow them to smithereens.
Your the second person to say this, I’m aware the Orioles beat all the offers and wouldnt pay anything more, if they didnt we wouldnt be discussing this right now. All I;m saying is that I’m surprised the market for Burnes wasn;t higher and that the Brewers didnt demand anything higher then what they just got
Why should the Orioles overpay just because they have a good Farm?
Why is everyvody not understanding what I’m saying, I’m not saying the Orioles should have overpayed, I’m saying that I think the Brewers could have demanded more then what they got….
It’s also possible the market for Burnes is exactly what you were expecting, you’ve just underrated just how good Ortiz is.
As for their demands, they probably did demand higher and just found those doors to be closed.
No one cares what Milwaukee demanded like they don’t care what Boras Snell demand. It’s take what we offer or go f yourself.
honestly, it seems that an ugly arbitration hearing started some bad blood between Burnes and the Brewers. I kind of hate the process for that reason.
really hoping that after the O’s WS champ parade, that Rubenstein has a sit down with Burnes and extends him.
I do think the compensation pick is a nice add to Ortiz and Hall.
Jumping the gun
Not for a one year rental!
AY, which means that one year of Burnes was not worth Holliday, Basallo or Mayo. It’s pretty easy to understand.
“overPAID” “underPAID”
@AirYordan the Brewers most certainly did demand more both from the Orioles and every other interested team. This package is where the scales balanced out to make a deal though or else they would have made a diffent deal. Regardless, getting 18 years of control over two likely above average MLB players and a yet to be determined prospect (and the additional bonus pool allotment associated with the pick the Brewers didn’t have this morning) is a solid haul for one season of anyone even someone as good as Burnes.
AY
“, but at the end of the day the Brewers got practially nothing compared to what the O’s have to offer from the farm system…”
And that’s absolutely the wrong way to look at it
Burnes is the better, more consistent pitcher though.
True. 2 years vs. 1 though.
that correct. and with Angelo’s, there was zero chance of it being more than 1 yr with Burnes. with Rubenstein, maybe the wallet is a little more open. no one doubts his talent.
I hope Gets finished that 2nd bottle of wine early enough to get a good night sleep. He can wake up tomorrow to the obvious reality he overplayed his hand and go into damage control mode. Salvage what you can for cease.
Hall & Ortiz only. I’d be pissed if I was a brewers fan. Yuck
Yeah only two top 100 BA guys…
Hall is a FORMER top 100. And trending the wrong way with a concerning walk rate.
Ortiz is a decent player. But Corbin burnes a frontline starter.
Light return.
Hadn’t seen the CBP.
That helps. With that said.. I’d be a little underwhelmed if I was a drunken sconnie
5 years of Hall and 6 years of Ortiz for one year of Burnes.
Any prospect they got would have the same control. Put your mittens on. Time to stop typing.
Hall is trending the wrong way? He was great in the second half last year.
Dude’s gonna be their new Hader.
It feels light for burnes. Two 50 grade, maybe 55 for ortiz. But still, strengthens their farm especially with that 34th pick.
Ortiz won’t be on the farm, neither will DL for that matter. Ortiz will be the everyday SS and I assume Hall will be in the rotation…Os were 50-50 on it going into spring training.
That pick has a ton of value too. (Specifically in 2023, $2,481,400 in bonus pool allotment. Gives a team a ton of flexibility making deals over and under slot at the draft.) Hall and Ortiz both have outstanding skills and abilities. Only question with Ortiz is whether his bat will hold up in the majors, only question with Hall is whether he’ll be a good starter (doubtful at this point), or a top level closer.
If Hall sticks as a strong BP arm, then that could be big.
Hall could be developed into the next Hader. Hader had the same control issues and similar stuff when he was coming up.
Jones…so a light hitting shortstop and a reliever. Plus a pick, I might actually like the pick the best. That said given the pitching market this deal looks great for the O’s.
Ortiz is a good hitter with pop and a top-notch defender.
Ortiz is not that good. He is 5’9. Undersized, he is a backup infielder ceiling.
You mean like Altuve is no good and has a backup infielder ceiling. Or Pedroia?
Ortiz was excellent in the minors and a Top 100 prospect.
Ortiz is a GG with high BA and good power. Obviously, you have never seen him play and are unfamiliar with his performance. Just keep judging on height, whether he is listed at 5’11” or 5’9″. One day you’ll find out you were wrong, but won’t admit it, of course.
@Sal – Go check out Ortiz’ EV rates. A GG caliber SS, good K%, and plus EV. Sounds like a 3+ WAR guy to me.
I trust that Brewers fans are more baseball literate than you give them credit for, and that they see their return more accurately than you do, Goose.
Goose— can you think outside of a prospect list?
How valuable was Josh Hader? How valuable is Devin Williams. DL Hall has the potential to be that valuable.
I hate losing him. He would’ve helped the O’s this year out of the bullpen.
Giving up DL Hall hurts, but gotta give to get
I think they grab another reliever or something now
If they are confident in how Tate is looking in his recovery, and it was reported to pretty darn good, maybe not. In fact, that may have made them feel comfortable dealing Hall, the idea that “we’re getting back another solid bullpen arm in Tate, so Hall is expendable for an ace like Burnes.”
Congratulations O’s fans!
Great for the O’s, but seems like a light return for Milwaukee, no?
It only looks that way because of how stacked Os farm is. This is a major league ready starting shortstop, a lefty starter with top of rotation stuff, and #34 draft pick. Brewers got guys that can help immediatly and a draft pick to help later. All for 1 year of Burnes
Agreed. It seems like a fair trade for one year of Burnes.
I’m pretty sure both were top 100 prospects, all for a rental
Yes, it’s a light return by any metric
WTF Red Sox!
WTF rest of league especially Yankees , Jays , Red Sox
WHAT?
No one wants to win the NL Central.
Word finally got back to Brewers about Héctor Neris signing. They are in full sell mode now.
Kripes! I think this will work out fine. Better than a comp pick. I think the pitching we have in the pipeline is close to ready. Go Crew!!
Don’t listen to the haters. I’m an O’s fan and think you guys did very well. Losing both Ortiz and Hall for a 1 year rental stings, but you gotta give to get as they say. Hope they both do great in MIL.
Wow… that hurts as a Yankee fan. Our advantage against Baltimore is gone.
True, but I’d argue that our advantage against the O’s was gone once they extended Aaron Boone….
What advantage
What advantage? A higher payroll?
The Os had better pitching than the Yankees last year. The Os had the 7th best team ERA vs the Yankees at 9th
What advantage?
Did you sleep though 2023, bro?
How the Yankees couldn’t do this is beyond me. These are BALs 4th and 5th best prospects. .
You’re right and They could have in theory…but, we have to remember that each team values other teams’ prospects differently. So, they may view Ortiz and/or Hall much more highly than even the highest ranked Yankees prospects due to their internal analytics, positional needs, or both.
I hear except that in the most recent MLB top prospect Lopez is 63 and Hall is not top 100 while Hampton and Warren are both top 100. So something tells me Yankees didn’t want to offer a package of Peraza, Perreia, Hampton/Warren and Beeter/Lange which again is another year where Cashman values his farm system higher then anyone else only to never play them and then release them 3 years later
Oh, for sure! Cashman prospect-hugging is absolutely at least part of the reason, if not the entire reason.
I don’t think all prospects should be traded because they obviously have to develop internally too, but the Yankees hamstrung themselves with needing to win this year because of the Soto deal (I don’t think they will re-sign him). Once he leaves, they will have a major offensive hole again.
Hall is no longer a prospect, so he wouldn’t be rated.
Look prospects and pitchers are oulier, nobody knows how they do in the future. The deals that are made in the off season all look good until players under perform or get injured which happens to all teams all the time.
Over & over I keep hearing people tell me how the Yankees will sign Soto for ridiculous numbers after this season. I agree with you – Soto is a one year rental. A very costly one at that, and it makes me wonder why the Yankees aren’t making another move to support their 2024 season. I do expect Rodon will give us an improved season & Stroman will give us 180+ decent innings. But I don’t understand why Cashman allowed Hader or Peralta to get away.
Those prospects are better than what the Yankees had probably.
Not according to MLB top prospects
The trio of Dominguez, Hampton and Warren might have been comparable but the Brewers have plenty of outfield prospects and needed someone MLB ready at pitcher and infield.
Yankees shot their load on Soto, Orioles held serve with Burnes.
Ya Manny and I’d say the yanks needed Soto more than they needed burnes. If it was one or the other then they made the right call.
Well, in terms of wins above replacement ignoring salary, Soto clearly tops Burnes. But Soto also costs $16 million in cash more than Burnes in 2024, $31.5 million versus $15.6 million, so that does impact the value of the deal.
It does in that respect, but Soto fills a more urgent need better than any other player not named ohtani who was plausibly available. The Yankees needed an impact lh bat more than anything else this off-season and they got one of the very best in the game.
Your prospects aren’t in the same league as the O’s!
Maybe they didn’t want to give up more prospects for another one year rental?
These are BALs 4th and 5th best prospects. .
=================================
That’s meaningless. They are both FV50 prospects. Right now, FG says the NYY have only 6 FV50s, two of whom will be playing with the NYY this year. A trade like this would leave very little on the farm.
Same for the RS fans wondering about the trade. It is maybe the equivalent of Rafaela + Yorke. We could do it, but it would weaken the farm way too much.
THE RETURN STINKS, BREWERS MESSED UP BIG TIME
Not only did they mess up but the rest of management of all Teams in the league how many of those other idiots running their teams did nothing
Well, he wasn’t going to the NL Central and most likely not the NL period, for obvious reasons. So there went half the teams right there.
Heck of a return. Easy win for Milwaukee
Both teams benefit. That’s the true mark of a great trade. Not one that hurts both teams.
Nah, Brew Crew did great on their return.
@AY
Brewers had a depreciating asset in Burnes on a team that isn’t yet ready to contend in the playoffs (so keeping him wasn’t really on the table). Plus, some of the bad blood that created a rift in the ability to re-sign him came from the arb process a couple of yrs ago. So some of how Milwaukee “mess up big time” was in the ham handed way they handled their own ace
What you want and what you get are different things. Life isn’t Burger King.
“Isn’t ready to contend in the playoffs”
They were in the playoffs last year. And with Burnes and Peralta at the top of your rotation you can contend with anyone in a short series.
They could of easily kept him until the deadline to see if they were in contention. They would of gotten a similar or greater return at the deadline than what they just got from the O’s.
@RodBecks
Good point and I stand corrected.
I certainly could have worded that differently. As much crap as the O’s got about having zero rotation after winning 101 but losing/being swept by the Texas… the Brewers won 92 but lost/were swept by Arizona. Yes, they could have kept Burnes and made another run.
But have they done enough to improve and had him walk for effectively that same comp pick for the QO?
If the argument is to trade him at the deadline, then that’s effectively also acquiescing to the idea of not yet competing to move PAST the playoffs. While the NL Central is not as weak as the AL Central, it will be a few years before I believe an NL Central team gets a bye for the 1st round of the playoffs.
Finally, your assertion that they could get more is based on no injuries and the market then. So, yes, “you may be right, I may be crazy… You may be wrong for all I know, but you may be right”.
My point is I would bet they would win the division again this year with Burnes at the top of their rotation. IF I was wrong, they could trade him at the deadline and get a similar, or better, package then they just received. And in a short series, with Burnes and Perata (and potentially Ashby if he breaks out this year) they would be really tough to beat.
It makes zero sense in my opinion to trade them now, especially after just signing Hoskins. At least the guys they got back in return can potentially help the club this year.
They need to trade for more starting pitchers maybe sign someone since you got a new owner.
The Orioles are good on starting pitching. They had the 7th best team ERA last year and replaced their 5th best starter with Burnes. Their rotation looks set now
That’s all it took to get Burnes. Wow.
Wawaweewa! Ortiz is a legit prospect, though he turns 26 this season already. DL Hall might hurt a bit, but Burnes is legit so you gotta give up some to get someone good.
The pick is good but this seems very light. I’m pretty surprised this is the best the brewers could do.
White sox should be running to the phone and call every because that cease price just tanked.
Cease can’t even hold burns jock strap one year vs two or not.
The White Sox are delusional with their asking price for Cease. They aren’t going to get anything near what they’ve been demanding for him, especially after this trade.
Cease stock just dropped 85-90% before market open. Brutal.
You’re silly. Cease is two years and his market is unchanged. Even Baltimore might still be interested.
Now the market is clearly less than what it reported that the White Sox were asking. But what you ask and what you will take are often different. I predict that the White Sox will trade Cease within four weeks of today and the return will be just a hair less than Soto and Burnes because it is two years of Cease but while he is affordably salaried, he is also a significantly lesser a player than the other two.
Simm I agree that cease’s trade value just tanked but, Chicago might not care.
Seeing the level of the prospects and the pick involved, I have to wonder what a SD trade for Cease light look like. If Hall was their #5 and wasn’t a top 100, then SD might not even have to give a top 10 for Cease now – might have give up 2-3 of the 10-20 though?
Cease’s market could heat up if snell and/or Montgomery sign soon. The orioles weren’t gonna play at that level in the fa market anyway and burnes was the ideal fit for their needs with the one year rental trade discount.
Think Cease isn’t worth what the white Sox are asking but he will return more than 2-3 guys in the 10-20 range. I could see 2-3 in that range plus a good headliner.
The problem with cease is you don’t really know how good of a pitcher are you going to get. The 22 cease is worth definitely more than Burns. The 23 Cease and the most of his other years are worth at most what burns got even with 2 years remaining. Someone prob would pay the difference which around what burns got, perhaps a little more with the second year. I’m also concerned Cease may have an arm injury soon given some velo drop and all the innings he has pitched.
Think the padres try and add a 4/5 guy and trade for a an outfielder or two.
I agree with that last part about what Padre might do. I’ve pitched my names before. I was just curious about the idea on Cease and really have never been high on him for the trade to SD so I hope they don’t bother unless it’s only some 10-20 type guys.
I think Ryu or Daviess or Lauer someone like that maybe Lorenzen.
Cease made sense for the padres because he pitches a lot of innings and it’s a real concern this year for the padres. He also isn’t being paid much which fit into the budget. It’s just the Sox want too much for him.
Yeah your 1 year deal list of pitchers fit the padres right now. Lorenzen is prob the safest on that list. Though they need a lefty making the others good fits. If I had to pick one I’d prob go with Lauer. Ryu injury history and velo dropping scares me a bit. Specially when you add in he may cost the most. Lauer should be very cheap. The question is will he have the velo he had Olin 21-22 or last year. He maybe a dud but likely will cost very little so who cares if he is. Now I could say we need both. I just get the feeling the padres want to leave a spot open for Vasquez, Brito, Avila and Waldron to battle it out for. Which I can live with. Plus by mid season we may see Thorpe or even snelling come up. Safest Lorenzen, cheapest Lauer, riskiest/upside Ryu.
Biggest question is what are they going to do about the outfield.
2 words on OF – pro far. If they surprise me with someone else they still get him for possible 1b.
He has to be way cheap this year and if he performs at the level of the totality of his SD tenure, with his positive clubhouse vibe – I’ll take him.
Give me Votto/Cooper or both – I think all 3 are less than 10 mil. Only Cooper gets beyond 1 year.
Again, fits the need and financial position the best – not necessarily what the fans would prefer.
Sugar get a serious look I think with Mercado for CF. If they can survive until July – Marsee is a maybe then.
Don’t overlook the possible blockbuster for a Luzardo even with AJ.
In the “10-20 range” of what? BA’s Top 100? Ortiz was the Orioles #6 prospect. Hall had been a Top 5 before graduating to the majors.
2022 Cease was about equal to 2022 Burnes, 2021 Burnes and 2020 Burnes. Meanwhile 2023 Burnes was far better than 2023 Cease, 2021 Cease, 2020 Cease and 2019 Cease.
Dude not all teams top 5 are equal.
Some teams have 5-6 top 100’s and some teams have 0. It makes a difference.
Padres 6 is Thorpe. Their 13 was the AFL MVP.
At 5, Hall was barely in top 100 and well, he ain’t no spring chicken any more and is likely being classified as a RP now which would drop prospect ranking drastically if he still qualified.
You have a poor grasp of when Hall was one of the Orioles Top 5 prospects compared to when he was in the top half of Top 100 lists. That was a while ago. The real-life Orioles Top 6 pre-trade were Holliday, Basallo, Mayo, Cowser, Kjerstad and Ortiz, with the first 5 all being Top 50.
Cease isn’t getting “2-3 guys in the 10-20 range” of the Top 100 (too much) nor will he be traded for “2-3 guys in the 10-20 range” of any one team’s prospects (too little).
Nobody here does not know that some teams, like the Orioles, have had 6 or 7 Top 100 prospects at a time while other teams have had none.
And, please, go DUUUUUUDE someone else. Your reply as it was supposed to pertain to my post didn’t make sense.
PS: Guess which Oriole prospect was their #10 at the end of last year. Hint: he was the AFL MVP.
Hall was a top 100 last on last years list. He played a full season, therefore not eligible.
Ray – thanks for that info. Looking back, with his age and / or how he fared at mlb along with being seen more as a reliever, I wouldn’t think I he would have stayed had he not matured out. I think of Thorpe as a comparison sticking near the end of the 100 list some guys would have to fall out a year later.
My thought in the SD farm is an Iriarte or Mazur are probably right in that 101-125 range if there was a list for that and they might compare with a Hall type for trade value. They may be considered better even since they are younger.
I’m not personally judging Hall because I don’t know anything other than the stats referenced (and your info). Just if Hall was a headliner for Burnes, then if Cease is less valuable than Burnes, maybe he could be obtained for less than Iriarte – padres #6. The further down it goes the more is like a cease trade.
No way I want SD’s top 5 involved and really only 1 of 6-10.
I’m not in charge though and Sox are free to overvalue their guy all they want.
.
Great move by the O’s, but that return seems a little thin for Milwaukee. I would’ve expected at least a couple other prospects in the package on top of Hall and Ortiz.
About time the Orioles did something noteworthy this off season.
I believe the Comp Balance A pick is essentially the same pick the Brewers would have gotten (and now the Orioles will get) if Burnes rejects a QO after the season.
So the net return is really just Hall and Ortiz. The Brewers would have the draft pick either way.
They do make the pick a year sooner. Value of a dollar now, versus the same dollar next year. Basically it’s like 2% better. Ortiz, Hall and 2% of a pick for Burnes.
Not quite armaments. The guaranteed pick now is more valuable because it negates the risk that burnes blows out his elbow or shoulder in 2024 and it no longer makes sense to qo him.
No, they would not have the pick in all circumstances because they might have traded him – say at mid-season if out of contention – to a team where they do not get the pick.
Honestly…..I can’t go for that. Hall & ortiz
Correct.
Good news for the rest of the central division
Wow, good for the O’s.
Adams is gone for sure now. Brewers retool assured. Maybe Williams by the break.
I don’t think Adams is gone or that MIL is conceding the division. They have $ to sign maybe 2 or 3 impactful players but not in the Snell, Belli, Chapman total cost and years. Ryu, Urshela, Soler or JDM short term deals
You obviously don’t know the history of the Milwaukee front office.
Devin Williams is not a free agent until 2026 and he is better than Josh Hader.
This offseason has been the wierdest thing, from Ohtani to the deferals to the extremly slow pace, Hader to the stros, boras sleeping till march and then this, my brain is gonna…
How is Burnes value not higher than a draft pick and a couple of prospects?
Well the only answer I can give you is because he’s a rental but still, not worth it because the “prospects” are nothing compared to what the Orioles have to offer
If you want the Orioles better prospects, gotta give up more than 1 (ONE) year of Burnes. Baltimore’s prospects don’t change the value of what the Brewers are giving up.
@AY
what’s weird is that “I before E, except after C” is a flawed mnemonic, right Champ?
Wow the O’s didn’t even give up 1 top 100 prospect for Burnes. Yet Seattle gave up a top 100 prospect for Polanco this week. I’m shocked, but love to see this going on in the AL East with the Yankees with a $300M+ payroll already in 2024 lol
I believe Hall was formerly a top 100 guy before he graduated from prospect status
So was ortiz.
Ortiz is top 100 and Hall was before he graduated.
What the Mariners did was a major overpay!
MLB pipeline has Ortiz as a top100 prospect and Baseball America has Hall as a top100 prospect. Baseball America list is the only one Hall is eligible for because they use innings pitch as criteria for prospect graduation as opposed to time on 26-man roster like the other lists do.
Ortiz is listed at #63 on MLB Pipeline for 2024. Hall was listed at #97 on MLB Pipeline’s 2023 midseason list and is ineligible for the 2024 list. Honestly, if Ortiz can take over for Adames next year and Hall winds up being their future closer it’s worth one year of Burnes. The Brewers have plenty of top 100 prospects who should be promoted within the next year (Chourio, Quero, Misiorowski, Black and Ortiz) along with a couple future back end starters Gasser and Rodriguez. Once you consider they already have Peralta, Williams, Payamps, Contreras, Hoskins, Turang, Yelich, Mitchell, Frelick and Wiemer they have a solid core cost controlled core with payroll flexibility to add veterans when needs arise.
A shocker of a trade
Elias doing a high draft pick instead of another of his many 40+ FV blocked prospects screams that he’s not done.
o’s get hall and ortz
yankees can’t go for that (no can do)
Pretty, pretty good.
Larry David. Nice
One on One, Burnes is a Maneater.
his FIP is on my list
of the best things in life
hooray! great trade!…signed…Reds fan!
Yes. Reds are likely now the front runner. Cubs a very close second.
The Cubs have done very little, and lost mvp like numbers with belli leaving. Also stroman had a decent year and he’s gone. Unless they replace belli they have a huge hole. Cards underperformed all year. Can’t imagine almost every person on the team having another down year. I bet cards play better and the reds got better too. Unless the cubs make more moves they could be in trouble
Stroman was awesome in first half and awful in second half. I am comfortable with Shota replacing him.
Replacing Belli is the issue. Belli himself is preferred, Chapman is a weak investment but would do the trick for a couple years, or JD or Soler if you believe Morel can play 3B – and I think Christoper is a DH or 2B only.
Really think market for Belli and Chapman is limited to Cubs, Angels, Giants and Blue Jays.
Yankees come back after this and get Snell would be a classic Steinbrenner move and pretty funny…
I can’t believe this. The Brewers reach out and sign Rhys Hoskins and then they pull this crap. Unreal
Yeah that’s the shocker to me. Thought the brewers will well positioned to win the division. Now that feels far less likely. Specially since they almost certainly trade adames.
Agreed. I thought after the Hoskins signing that Milwaukee would make one more legitimate run this season before losing Burnes, Adames, etc to free agency and having to retool for the future a bit. Disappointing for Brewers fans.
Clown decision for a team that went out and got a true leader like Rhys. I’m sure Adames is next followed by a trade deadline deal for Devin Williams that will restock their AA team and have no impact on the big league. Oakland is leaving Oakland. Milwaukee is gonna be crap till they can move to Nashville or Sheboygan
Yelchi and others to.
@whosehigh
“Sheboygan Brewers” has a horrible ring to it. Sounds like a team that Lori Petty would get traded to in League of their Own.
I thought the exact same thing.
I think they want to improve with short term deals with reasonable salaries. You would have think they could have held on to Burnes till AS break but their scouts/analytics liked these 2 players plus value of pick
Plus if Burnes gets hurt, they get squat. These two can help them this year. I don’t think Milwaukee is out of the central race.
Trade away the staff ace and easily one of the top 5-10 pitchers in MLB.
Congrats to Matt Arnold & MKE front office for continuing the Brewer tradition of ONE WS appearance in over 50 years!
Thank you for making this trade early so I have more free time and can save my $$ by not spending it on Brewer tix this summer.
Seems like a weak return.
… for Baltimore
Finally they act like the top team they are. They were capped out with the current rotation. At least they will be stronger this season.
I’m really surprised Farhan and the Giants missed on Burnes. Burnes would have been a great 1-2 with Webb and made Giants a competitive team, assuming Chapman signs in SF. Seems like Farhan had the prospect capital to beat Orioles offer and NOT include Harrison.
seems Farhan is late to a lot of deals. He should get a better wristwatch, I think his is running slow.
Since when can draft picks be traded? Must have something to do with the competitive balance slot
Competitive balance picks can be traded
Yes, Comp Picks are the only picks that can be traded… and only once. Milwaukee can’t turn around and trade it away.
Damn, Milwaukee is just punting 2024. Losing Counsel broke them.
As a response, Yankees GM Cashman has signed Snell to a 8 year/200 million $ deal
I’d do this deal.
That is the identical extension for Snell that I offered-in-chat-here prior to ’23. I was rowing that boat alone at the time.
You now have one more in that boat with you.
Get a few more and we maybe able to upgrade it to a ship.
Extremely light return. Thought Milwaukee would do better than a #6 guy, a reliever that they hope can still make it as starter and a draft pick.
If Grayson Rodríguez can build on that 2023 2nd half…that’s a nice 1-2 punch for Orioles.
Kyle Bradish had a 2.83 era last season. If Grayson can build on his 2023 then it’s a killer 1-2-3 punch and that doesn’t even count Means yet.
Brewers fan here I’m not sure about the two players they got in return for Burns but Burns made it clear he’s going to test the free agency waters so if the Brewers are going to move him at all it would have been at the trade deadline and they would have been extremely controversial if they would have been in first place trying to get a return for him so I think it makes perfect sense that they move him now and we’ll see how the return shapes up
As an Os fan I think you’ll be happy with the return. Both guys are ready to contribute at the major league level and both have a lot of upside. Wouldn’t surprise me if these two total more WAR than Burnes for a lot less money or if one becomes a star. On top of that Brewers get the 34 pick for future
The NL Central has to be the most up for grabs Division. Milwaukee is clearly rebuilding, Pittsburgh is young, unproven and raw, Cincinnati is young and unproven but shows potential, Chicago is in some strange purgatory of mediocrity, and St. Louis is coming off their worst season since 1990, but have made moves to get back into contention.
The Reds are now the front runners. Cubs right there too.
Milwaukee’s prospects are mlb or triple-a. This is not a rebuild it’s a young team. They have been ranked as high as #2 system behind only baltimore.
Seems like a steal for Baltimore.
Big win for the Orioles. Don’t love it for the Brewers. They went from under-the-radar good next season to more a bit more mediocre with this move in my book.
The White Sox reported asking price for Dylan Cease looks laughable after this trade. Yes it’s only 1 year of Burnes versus 2 for Cease but Burnes is a legitimate ace.
Getz will be fired by the time he realizes he’s an idiot
Not going to lie, this makes Getz clearly wrong on Cease. Now if he is an idiot or just overly tentative time will tell.
@Jeremy
Orioles have plenty of firepower to go out and get cease too honestly.
Bieber
Elias isnt going to pay for CLE’s declining damaged goods.
Unless they want cole Irvin in return.
How does this make the Sox’ asking price laughable? I think this makes the Brewers look laughable to agree to a deal like this. The White Sox do NOT have to trade Cease, especially not now – so why would they agree to getting the Os 6th and 7th best prospects, both mid-twenties with limited ceilings?
I mean – there’s a possibility they just traded Burnes for a rookie Jake Diekman (there’s no guarantee Hall will be a decent starter) and a low ceiling, good glove shortstop. Meh – if that’s the offer, I’m happy to keep Cease until to the trade deadline and see where everything stands then.
The Orioles made a killing on this – and it has nothing to do with Cease or the White Sox.
This trade effects other divisions too. Gotta believe 2024 is a building year for the Brewers. Do the Cubs now believe a couple of moves and they would be favorites? Cards? Reds? Do the Angels see themselves as contenders? Rangers feel even more threatened? More from Mariners?
Angels need a solid starter or 2 still!
Agree, but they have the cash. For Trout’s sake it would be cool to see the Angels go after a couple of plus starters.
Nl central winnable with Brewers having Burnes. Al west teams aren’t competing against Baltimore. Baltimore likely either wins division or wins 90 100 games. That’s their goal. Mariners just want to win 54 percent of their games or something. Angels will be thrilled with being 500.
Let the good news keep coming for us O’s fans lol. But for real though, this was a huge get and it they didn’t sell the farm. Elias and company continue to show they know what theyre doing.
Soo it seems the Orioles started a bonfire to reignite the Hot Stove. The deal implies BAL is paying all 15.6M of Burnes 2024 salary. This certainly turns up the heat on all teams in the AL East to get better. Boras is probably happy. Orioles should be seriously determined to copy TEX success and win the WS this year. This opens up some payroll for MIL. They could afford a hitter and a starter. Ryu and Soler/JDM
Possibly Chapman Expect some dominos to start falling
Chapman signed with Pittsburgh
I’m thinking YaG meant Matt Chapman
Ah
If Milwaukee is moving players, I suggest Cashman ask about Freddy Peralta. Good pitcher with affordable contract and he fills the Peralta quota for the Yankees (Freddy replaces Wandy to continue having a Peralta on the team).
Yea, they aren’t having a fire sale or moving Peralta especially with his team friendly deal. Brewers didn’t waste money on Hoskins to throw in the towel. They will still expect to compete in the weak NL central.
No. Freddy is a part of the future. Burnes never was.
This deal went down QUICK.
If this is what the Brewers were willing to accept it’s not surprising that the Os and Sox couldn’t come together on a deal. Protected their top 5 prospects and got a great 1 year rental. Crazy.
White Sox GM turned this down for Dylan Cease.
Good job to the O’s. Hopefully this gives the market a nice shove.
Thought Burnes would stay put after the Brewers signed Rhys. Have to think they aren’t done dealing. Good move by the Orioles.
Gotta like the deal for both sides here. Brewers get a long term middle infielder and Hall who is probably a reliever maybe a starter plus a good draft pick. Orioles get the ace they really needed to be legit. Gotta imagine Adames is the next to go. Good deal both sides.
Great trade for the Orioles. They acquire an ace for their pitching staff and do so without giving up any of their top prospects.
The fans of Cardinals Nation approve of this trade!
If you’re in the “Top 100” for 5 years in a row, I’m thinking there’s a problem. Looks like a bad return for the Brewers.
Christian Pache
Good point. I keep thinking Hall gets a chance then….crickets. Something is wrong here. What did the brewers get here? Failed blue chip prospect? AAAA player!? Brewers take a big step back either way this year, lost way too much!
Hall is a beast. Looked great as a reliever last year. Dude’s gonna be Hader 2.0.
Worst case: DL is a high-leverage reliever.
I think best case at this point is that he’s an absolutely dominant relief pitcher. I guess it’s so tempting to see if you can make him a starter but it’ll take time to ramp him up and get him up to that workload. There’s no way he’s tossing over 120-130 innings max this year.
I wish he was mowing guys down in the O’s ‘24 pen. Wouldn’t be crazy if Milwaukee lets him start this year though. Not a lot of depth there.
The Orioles got fleeced into giving up 2 top 100 prospects and a top draft pick for one year of a #2 guy likely demanding 200-300 million for an extension. Still, that rotation was anemic, so this helps a lot.
With all due respect, this is a terrible take on several layers.
Ortiz and Hall were barely on (or not even appearing) industry wide top 100 lists.
The draft pick is not as important to BAL anymore given how strong the roster and farm system is.
Burnes will sign an extension now that new ownership is in place.
Still, it’s 1 year, and his salary isn’t much of a discount for a traded player. I’d rather see them sign Snell/Montgomery for a similar amount and avoid a loss of prospects. For 2 or 3 years of Burnes, this would be ideal, though.
If they sign Snell/Monty, they lose the draft pick. I’m sure Elias is smart enough to factor that into this decision. I prefer Burnes to either one of those two and Cease.
Correction: Montgomery wouldn’t cost a 2nd round pick since he was traded and is this ineligible for a QO.
It would have costed a lot more than Hall and Ortiz for 2 or 3 years of Burnes, though.
Not to mention that Degrom forgets when Burnes leaves in FA next off-season, he’ll have the Orioles QO attached. So they’ll get a draft pick right back. In what will be a stronger draft class.
If I heard right, Burnes is a Boras client. So no, I very highly doubt there will be an extension.
Pinstriped – You’re right. He is with Boras. I’d always thought he was with CAA. That’s what’s shown on his bbref page, so that needs updating.
@skins,
he was with CAA for years but changed to Boras last March or something, so it’s understandable you’d still think CAA.
Highly doubtful he’ll pitch 1 season in Baltimore then head west pitching for 1 of the 3 California teams
Hoping he signs with the Yankees after this season. It’s no secret that Cashman and the Yankees brass got their eyes on him. For good reason, obviously
@skins:
Hall graduated off lists.
Ortiz was still listed on some Top 100s.
The draft pick is still important to the Orioles, just as it will be to the Brewers.
It’s unlikely Burnes will not test the FA market.
Your takes were all bad. Worse than deGrom.
Ra – what are you smoking? I literally made the same comments you did about Hall and Ortiz prospect status.
“it’s unlikely Burnes will not”. Is that a double negative? So he will, or won’t, test FA. Got it.
The draft pick is not as important because if Burnes walks and doesn’t extend with the Os, they get the QO pick.
What am I missing? I’m not sure why you’re trying to come at me
Not a double negative: “It’s unlikely Burnes will not test the FA market” means the same as “Burnes will become a Free Agent and will not sign an extension.”
Also, the Orioles are not guaranteed a pick if Burnes gets injured and isn’t QO’d. Likely, but not certain.
#63 for Ortiz is a lot better than “barely on (or not even appearing) industry wide top 100 lists.”
The Competitive Balance pick holds a value of ~ $2.5MM, thus it is very valuable for every team, even one with a strong farm system. The Orioles have to keep the talent pipeline going; they can’t stand still and expect continued success.
You and others should take a look at what Hall and GrOD Almighty accomplished in MiLB in 2022 It would probably change a few minds about Hall being a throw-in with marginal value. I’m sure the Brewers’ front office looked at his accomplishments.
Ra – Well, we’ll agree to disagree.
I’m well aware that Hall has major control problems as a starter and struggles to get past 5 innings.
Ortiz was a no show on several of the new/updated top 100 lists that just came out. Did you not see that?
We got the PPI pick for Gunnars ROY, so Elias felt comfortable dealing the CBP. It’s pretty simple.
Also the baseball trade value website has this trade about even, slight edge to MKE.
End of day, it helps a WS contender get closer to that goal, so this trade was worth the risk for Elias and co.
Also Burnes is a true #1, TOR starter. Not sure how you could say he’s a #2.
ERA over peripherals
127 ERA+ and 137 ERA+ the last 2 seasons sound more like a good #2 than a #1.
Do you expect to have an intelligent conversation with an idiot?
You should see what happened in the second half with his revised slider. True #1 stuff from Burnes.
The Orioles had the 7th best team ERA in baseball last year. Rangers ranked 18th in ERA.
I said rotation, not bullpen. I also never mentioned Texas. The Orioles have had a really good bullpen in the last 10 or so years, but their rotation has always lagged behind. Kyle Gibson was theri “ace.” Texas had no real bullpen.
Do you mean Kyle Bradish? Kyle Bradish pitched like an ace last year and had the 4th best ERA of any starter last year
Lol what are you talking about? Kyle Gibson was their ace? This just tells me your opinions on everything should be approached with skepticism because you apparently don’t know even the most basic facts about other teams.
#2 guy? In what world?
Whoever is running the show in Wisconsin is 100% a lifelong yardbird fan this trade is flippin criminal to say the very very least. Like throw him in jail…wow i feel sorry for their fans
Good for the O’s! Great move. I’m a little underwhelmed for the return to the brewers but still good
I’m a diehard Phils fan but I was born and raised in bmore. I LUV THIS TRADE FOR THE ORIOLES!!!!
You should feel bad for Rhys Hoskins
Feels like the Brewers failed in timing this trade. If they’d done it early in the off-season they’d have gotten a better return. They were asking for the Braves whole farm-what’s left of it.
It’s possible the two sides agreed to this months ago but it had to wait for the Orioles to complete their ownership agreement.
Bradish (2.83 era in 168 innings last season)
Burnes
Grayson Rodriguez
John Means
Dean Kremer/Tyler Wells
Adding Burnes totally changes the complexion of the rotation.
I think Wells is a reliever for sure now. Kremer is the ideal #5 innings eater
Brewers not punting. That’s not our style. Look for some controllable starting pitching additions to follow. Maybe not Snell or Montgomery, but this team will be competitive. Burnes was all but gone anyway. Payroll at 102Mil. About 25 Mil below last year.
Woodruff got hurt. Burnes has been dealt and the Brewers just picked up a ready to play shortstop which is where Adames plays.
The Brewers are punting. But I think they will bounce back rather quickly.
Taking a step back. Lost two aces and one of the best managers. Now probably unloading Adames. Playing for .500 this season and try to sharpen up for 2025. Since they felt they could not compete this trade was a win for them. Two affordable players with high upside at low salary for many years.
Standard Brewers MO. Aim to make the playoffs, not actually win them.
I don’t think the Brewers are a playoff team at this point. Look like the 4th best team in a weak division.
Rrewers are definitely focusing on 2025 and beyond with this move but not totally punting on ‘24.. they could be sneaky competitive in that division with all these young guys. Depends how smooth their transition is to the MLB. The brewers long term outlook looks so much better right now though.
They did very well here.
I like it for both teams. You guys made a move that you really needed to make to be a legit contender and the Brewers got more young talent to go with tue impressive young talent they already had. Losing Hall could hurt a bit but Burnes is a legit ace.
The Athletic saying Ortiz is gonna get a bunch of time this Spring and early at 3rd.
The obvious answer is to use Hall as a starter. He was only moved to the bullpen because there wasn’t enough time to get him stretched out to a starters workload after he came back from injury. Also the Felix Bautista injury occurred around that time as well to make the decision to have him pitch in the bullpen more obvious.
About time, from the Brewers end. Didn’t make sense to keep him in a walk year. Thought a deal would of happened much earlier this off season and was starting to think they’d hold onto him for 2024 after all. As a Brewer fan, glad they didn’t, bummer for this year but made too much sense to move him this offseason.
Brewers are savvy and very good at developing pitchers. I’d bet Hall becomes solid with them. Ortiz fits their fondness for scrappy strong defenders at SS. That and the pick for an elite rental should work well for both teams.
Love the deal for the O’s, but don’t sleep on Hall. His arm is live. I saw minor league games with hitter walking back to the dugout talking to themselves and saying it was unfair. When he is on, he’s damn near unhittable. He just needs to consistently find the strike zone. High upside guy.
Ortiz is a big league SS. Great glove and the bat should be decent. That alone (plus the pick) are solid building blocks for the brewers.
Orioles have a history of trading away pitchers that turn out to be pretty good: Arrietta, E-Rod, Schilling, etc.
Hader, Gausman, Harnisch, Davies, the list goes on…
I agree losing Hall could hurt but this is a legit ace here. The Orioles got what they needed most and didn’t have to spend a lot of money or commit long term.
@Justrob That history pre-dates the current front office. Are you going to cite the 1970s Orioles pitching also, because it is equally impertinent.
quick someone call 911 brewers got robbed
Back to reality for the 2024 season. If we kept the one and done player we would have just received the draft pick. Now we got 2 quality prospects and the #34 pick next year. Plus the division is still winnable this year. Youth is king and everyone will hate this trade in Wisconsin tonight but not for long in the seasons to come.
FWIW, I’m an O’s fan and think you guys made our very well in this deal. Hall may be your new Hader.
From what I know about Hall I think he might have a future in the rotation but he will have LH competition for that. He’ll make the team as a reliever this year but Miley will be gone next year opening up a spot in the rotation. He may pitch like Hader but we have the best closer in the league so I don’t see a future there until 2026 the earliest. Sounds like we received Adames’ replacement. Hoping Ortiz is actually better than his ranking because of Jackson Holliday’s shadow. Enjoy Burnes. He’s an Ace for sure but you probably only have him for one year and the AL East isn’t the the NL Central.
I think he has significant reliever risk, but his stuff was so gnarly in short bursts out of the pen last year that I don’t think you’ll be too upset if that is his ultimate destination. The Hader comp was not some crazy hyperbole.
That said, the Brewers are one of the better pitching organizations so it would not shock me if he does end up in the rotation if your coaches can keep the walks down.
Either way, I think the stuff is pretty much too good to fail and that he will be a solid big league pitcher in some capacity for you guys.
Also, Ortiz is criminally underrated despite being a top 100 prospect. People basically decided he was a glove only guy a few years ago and then intentionally ignore his AA and AAA numbers from 22 and 23, which were actually very good. Not a ton of power, but he has excellent contact skills and pumps out doubles.
Craig Breslow and the Red Sox are monitoring the situation.
What a horrific return for Burnes. How were other teams not able to top that offer!? Orioles win this and it’s not close AT ALL!
Trade simulator says its pretty darn fair 36 million going to Milwaukee 33 for the Orioles.
Your trade simulator is grade A bull plop. Only accounts for the money. One team got a stud the other team got hot garbage. Orioles have a ton of high end prospects to deal, brewers got none of them! Brewers Fail!
So the site that’s only purpose is to judge the fairness of a trade is wrong and you some rando internet guy is right.
Got it.
What a great week to be an Os fan!
Love this trade. We didn’t give up a lot for a true #1. Much prefer Burnes over Cease or even Snell or Monty for that matter.
I’m assuming he will sign an extension with us. MKE pissed him off last offseason with the arb hearing fiasco. I’m sure Elias probably discussed this with Burnes and his representation prior to completing the trade.
Yeah, I hate losing Hall and Ortiz, but nothing in life is free. Good deal for both sides, IMO.
The extension ain’t happening though, he has been very open about his desire to test free agency.
I posted this not knowing that and also thinking he was represented by CAA because that’s what his BB-ref page says.
You’re right, he’s likely a 1 yr rental. At least we’ll get the QO draft pick compensation.
I will say that the idea of re-signing him in free agency next offseason does seem more realistic with the new ownership group. Still not likely IMO, but not completely out of the question like it would have been under the Angeloses either.
100% agree. At least we have shot. May not be much of one, but that chance was zero under Angelos watch.
I think this is a good deal for both teams, but Burnes was not remotely an ace last year.
I would temper expectations if I were an Oriole fan.
I’m a Brewer fan fwiw
Orioles fans are not far removed from Chris Tillman being the #1. Just Corbin Burnes’ cleats coming to Baltimore would be cause for excitement.
Not good for brewers – just highlights how small market teams cannot retain their talent.
Totally fine with it as a Brewer fan.
Arguably the best stadium in the history of all of sports and arguably the best history and the best Babe Ruth connection in sports history. Dont ever doubt this team or this this stadium or this city.
Babe’s dad’s bar is said to have stood somewhere in the OF at OPACY. Pretty neat.
O’s fan here. Love Baltimore but I dunno about “best Babe Ruth connection in sports history”. Don’t dilute your argument with an overreach. lol
Baltimore sucks.
Never doubt this stadium or this city.
Ruth is from there. He therefore has a stronger connection to the Orioles than the yankees.
wonder if fans identify HOF players by where they’re born rather than where they make their mark in history?
I am not a Yankee fan but it’s a bit of a stretch straight out say Baltimore has the best connection to Babe in sports history most of sports fans would connect Ruth with New York rather than Baltimore.
Doubt New Yorkers would claim the best connection to Jim Palmer either. (He was born there before his long and storied career in some other city south of there.) lol
Even though I’m a Jays fan, I’ll be honest- I was stoked to see this headline pop up on my screen when I typed the website in.
Especially with that young core behind Corbin, way to go O’s!
A for MIL. Hall looks to have back of pen talent. Pretty safe bet. I’m not ruling out starter just saying that is his safety net. The same team that developed Burnes has the opportunity to make Hall a MLB starter. Ortiz no doubt SS. Doesn’t walk a ton but can hit. Pretty safe bet. Already won this trade. Draft pick makes it easy. Save some $. Use it to compete. Sign a pitcher.
C for Baltimore. Got a cheap 1 year starter. One of the best starters available. Maybe the best. They didn’t think Hall was good enough for them. They have other infielders. But then they gave up draft pick. Another team was beating this 2 player package? Couldn’t agree on a prospect? Baltimore does so well in the draft I hate to give up that pick. They paid a lot. Closer to D than B. Burnes is fantastic. Just 1 year.
I’d argue those grades should be reversed. The draft pick is moot point in my opinion due to the fact that a comp pick will be headed to Baltimore when/if Burnes signs elsewhere next offseason. Now, for the MIL side of the trade the prospects are good but not likely to have the impact of Burnes likely ever as neither are considered top 100 MLB prospects. For Baltimore, this was NEEDED. This team is so close to being a force to be reckon with and they have loads of prospects which are going to be harder and harder to keep around and find playing time for. Burnes makes this team the undoubted favorite out of the ALE. For MIL, it just kicks the can down the road and doesn’t move the needed much in my opinion. A for BAL, C for MIL.
Ortiz was never touching the field in Baltimore and Hall probably wasn’t cracking the rotation. You have a team full of young players and the best farm in baseball, the number 35 pick doesn’t mean much right now either. This was an easy trade for Baltimore.
I’d rather have 2 draft picks vs 1. Giving anything better than a C would mean Baltimore got a good discount. I think they paid a fair price. Hall isn’t prospect eligible so can’t make a top 100. He would be in the mix for it at the very least. I think they are sleeping on Ortiz a bit.
Ortiz might be great but he’s a 26 year old that is blocked everywhere. The orioles just got one of the best pitchers in baseball coming off 100+ win season. Those players and that draft pick mean nothing to them. It’s a good trade by both teams but this is an absolute slam dunk for the Orioles.
The pick is guaranteed for Milwaukee and comes a year sooner, thus it is more valuable. It’s possible Burnes gets injured and Baltimore does not QO, so they would not get the comp pick.
Ortiz is in fact a top 100 prospect, #63 on MLB. Hall was a top 100 prospect but has now played too many games at the big league level.
Losing Hall could hurt them but Ortiz had nowhere to play in Baltimore and the Orioles had 2 extra picks so losing one isn’t a big deal. I like the deal for both teams
That’s what a good trade is: it helps both teams.
If Burnes leaves in free agency the O’s get the draft pick back with QO!
No they don’t. It’s Milwaukee’s.
Nope. It’s the O’s now.
Just checked 34th pick still with Milwaukee
That’s a good point curt. He pitches this year and they either re-sign him or get the QO pick.
NOOOOO! This is not good. Crap.
FWIW
BTV has the trade
Burnes – $33.8 million
Hall – $18.9 million
Ortiz – $13.6 million
Pick – $4 million
Total – $36.5 million
Basically equal
And because his name came up a few times
Cease – $42.4 million
Yeah I like the deal for both teams for sure. Big thing here is Ortiz plays short the Brewers are almost certainly trading Adames too. Good trade for both teams.
Ortiz won’t hit. Utility player at best. He will be 26 and not good enough to make Orioles big league roster.
You are unfamiliar with Ortiz, clearly.
If the price for Cease is $42.4 Million, then presumably the return would be Hall/Ortiz quality and a third Ortiz quality,
Because I follow the Dodgers most closely and would have liked to have had Burnes on the team here are some similar packages to what Baltimore gave
Lux $28
Busch $17
Vargas $19
Sheehan $29
Stone $19
Hurt $16
Frasso $11
Ryan $9
I definitely would have been ok with any of the above going to Milwaukee for Burnes.
@fili
Why don’t we just put all the MLB players on a deferred Dodger payroll and field the opposing team every night with the Washington Generals?
MG
Because that makes no sense and is a dumb comment
Maybe they didn’t offer that.
Those Dodgers values are incredibly inflated. How on earth is Gavin Lux worth 27 million? Sheehan 29? No freaking way.
Bpita
“Those Dodgers values are incredibly inflated. How on earth is Gavin Lux worth 27 million? Sheehan 29? No freaking way.”
I have to say, you put forth a very compelling argument.
I’ll counter with – uh, yes they are
:drops mic:
One more data point to how broken FIP can be for certain types of pitchers, what with Burnes’ 3.81 figure for 2023.
9.3 / 3.1 / 1.0 / 6.6, with a league leading 1.069 WHIP and this yields a FIP of close to 4?
JSB
You, obviously, don’t understand FIP
1) It can’t be broken for a certain type of pitcher. It’s a mathematical model. You put in the inputs and you get an output.
2) the whole point of WHIP is to exclude non-HR batted balls, so, Burnes’ WHIP is totally irrelevant (as WHIP should be, since its a terrible stat).
Burnes did not have a great year
His 25% K rate was down 5% points from 2022 and 10% points from 2022
His 8% BB rate was up 2% points from 2023 and 3% points from 2022.
His K rate was “only” 15% above average
His BB rate was 3% BELOW average
He was good, not great.
As his FIP shows
FIP is so outdated and primitive it’s comical.
9.3 / 3.1 / 1.0 / 6.6, with a league leading 1.069 WHIP and this yields a FIP of close to 4?
=======================.
The 9.3/3.1 is not huge. It is 3.03 against a league average for SPs of 2.80.
His GB/FB ratio of .78 is almost exactly league-average of .76.
His stats last year were good, but not great.
WOW did the brewers get absolutely hosed on the return
They didn’t get one of the Orioles top 7 prospects.
Ortiz was their #6 guy.
No way, they did very well.
Orioles gave up:
1. a guy they don’t have room for in the infield
2. a reliever they don’t have room for in the rotation
3. a pick they get back when they slap the qualifying offer on Burnes
LOL what a steal
Add in a smirk for the Competitive Balance Pick awarded them for being a lower revenue team. Team is supported by MLB. Personally, I like the O’s but their team ownership has exploited a whole lot of freebies
Especially when you consider the MASN shenanigans, and how much money that brings in. The Angeloses control MASN and decided, due to the dispute, MASN would with hold rights fee payouts until resolution of the issue was resolved. So while the family controlled the money, $0 in rights fees were paid since 2017. So the Orioles report $0 in RSN money, and get the perks of being a lower revenue team. Remember, despite being owned by the same people, The Orioles and MASN are two separate entities and only the Orioles books count for revenue sharing. MASN has since recently agreed to send both the Nationals and Orioles each $304 million in back pay for years 2017 to 2021. Future rights fees payouts are expected to be between 60 and 65 million as season. Do the Orioles even have 65 million in payroll? Lol. And John lied to the state of Maryland. Good riddance.
The Orioles got fkked when MLB conspired to plant the Expos in DC, so there is no reason to complain about the MASN deal. The whole ordeal hurt the Orioles far more than it helped.
And when the Nats are sold it is likely they will be the third franchise to leave DC in the past 60 years.
Not complaining about it at all. Stating the Angelos family has used MASN to shield money from MLB revenue sharing. The deal itself was great for Baltimore. Noone, except apparently Peter Angelos, knew how valuable RSN rights would be at the time of the deal.
It may have been good for the Angelos’ family but it was and is bad for Oriole fans and the City of Baltimore.
That’s what happens when you spend a DECADE being a laughing stock organization. They were every teams easy win for such a long time, eventually all those #1 overall picks / top 5 picks were going to arrive making them a contender. It took forever but we are here, the powers that be can stop feeling sorry for them.
They were signing free agents all through that decade plus. But don’t let the facts get in the way of your feelings,
don’t agree with your thinking, @just_thinkin.
you don’t judge a deal according to the impact to how the pieces would hurt you to lose, just on the value of the players that were dealt to their new teama.
so if a team has 2 future all star players at the same position and trades one away for your bench 4th OF… you lost that deal because they didn’t need that surplus talent? that’s some convoluted thinking.
What a great week to be an Orioles fan.
Great to see.
How was a draft pick able to be traded in this deal?
Mlb official rules?
Competitive Balance picks can be traded, But only once.
The term “..for a bag of chips and a bucket of balls” has NEVER been more accurate
Showing us you don’t have knowledge of the players involved. BOLDLY! lol
Reserve judgement until Burnes pitches a full season in AL East instead of the NL CentrAaaL
Down to the basics.
Milwaukee gets a draft choice it was gonna get anyway. Baltimore gave up a draft choice it will get back. The pick is a wash both ways.
So the trade is one year of Burnes at $15.6 mil for….
Six years of both Hall and Ortiz. Both are/were top 100 prospects across multiple ranking services.
The trade saves Milwaukee $15.6 mil and the swap of draft picks moves up a rebuild/replenishment a year.
Of course, nobody knows how the trade will look 3-5 years from now. If Burnes wins the CY and leads Baltimore to the WS, ots a big win, no matter what the two kids end up doing in their careers.
If one of the kids ends up being a solid contributor for several years for the Brewers, its a win, no matter what Burnes does.
And there are limitless possible grade variations. It could very well be a win for both teams, which I think is the most likely outcome.
A fairly even trade of contracts.
Yes. But no guarantee the Orioles QO Burnes and get the comp pick if he gets injured.
In baseball there is no guarantee of anything.
Except player salaries.
This seems like a good deal for both sides. Baltimore gets the ace they need now while Milwaukee gets two top 100 prospects and a great draft pick.
They aren’t real top 100 prospects. Hall can’t throw strikes and Ortiz won’t hit and is a mediocre fielder and will turn 26 next season. Terrible trade for the Brewers.
What are real top 100 prospects? I was under the impression that rankings by professionals decided the positions.
You clearly don;t know dick about Ortiz: you are wrong on both claims.
Saying Ortiz is a mediocre fielder gives away the fact that you know absolutely nothing about him, which implies you probably nothing about hall either.
Horrible take. And 100% incorrect. Ortiz is a plus plus fielder who has clobbered AAA for the past two years. Hall is your next Hader at minimum.
Rayw
“Hall is your next Hader at minimum.”
I’ll take the under
I think he is saying Hall will be given a chance to be an SP. The fall back option is high-leverage reliever, like the one the Brewers traded in 2022. Did you know FG rates Hall’s FB an 80? All his pitches get high grades.
Hall had a normal walk rate as a reliever after his dead and reset in 2023. He likely turned a corner in 2nd half. Sorry to see he was included as he would be in the starter depth conversation in 24 and a shot at rotation in 25 In baltimore
It’s worth noting the six years of control on the prospects compared to one year of control on Burnes.
Did I miss something? Since when can you trade draft picks?
There’s like 12 picks a year that can be dealt. The “competitive balance” picks. There’s two groups, and I think its 6 in each group.
Not to be mean but that was apropos of nothing.
I keep seeing people say the Brewers didn’t get any top 100 prospects. Do y’all know how to Google or nah? Ortiz is #63 on MLB Pipeline and Hall #93 on Baseball America. Plus a pick.
Burnes is a one year rental. Big for the Orioles. But the last thing the Brewers needed was Burnes getting hurt like Woodruff. That was a disaster.
Can we understand how this works, know it’s a balance between win now and the future, and maybe hold out a while before declaring this a bad deal?
Maybe?
Ortiz and Hall aren’t good.
Objectively idiotic comment.
It’s hard to tell if you’re trolling or really that ignorant.
Then release them or trade back to Baltimore for player TBN later…
This is the way small markets have to do it, unfortunately.
Prospect ratings don’t mean much. Both are on the older side for prospects being 26 later this year and very little MLB experience. Player of that ilk don’t often have big upside. The pick is valuable and the guys could be decent contributors but think most folks expected more for a talent like Burnes.
@sky
Bad take. Hall is at minimum an impactful reliever. Ortiz isn’t an all star but I can very easily see him being a long time starting SS in this league.
Ortiz would’ve been a team’s starting SS this year but he was blocked in Baltimore.
Great for the O’s. Big huevos. Farhan is a joke. We could not give up a Fitzgerald or lower prospects? It’s clear that hyped up guys like Meckler, McCray, Schmitt are not worth what Farhan thinks. No one wants them, not even their mommas.
Great trade for O’s. Now sign Burnes to extension. Brewers getting their starting SS in Ortiz and Hall preference is to start. He’s got real live arm to blow away hitters and showed it late last season. Brewers should trade Adames, with money savings from Burnes deal should be able to pick up some good talent to contend for NL Central title. All the while setting themselves up for the future without payroll explosion..
Another door slams shut on Snell.
What !!!!
The mariners gave up more to for polonco!
Ts
Baseball valuation is subjective, but, no, they did not.
You can trade draft picks now?
Competitive balance picks have been eligible for trades for awhile now.
Been that way for years. Only these type of draft picks.
Honest question. Why do the Orioles, who won over 100 games, get a competitive balance pick, when they control the tv network and receive the same payout to themselves as they pay the Nationals? On the surface, this doesn’t appear like a typical “small market”.
It’s all about revenue. Explained here:
mlb.com/glossary/transactions/competitive-balance-…
Hey, gave you a thumbs up. We good?
The system is rigged. The whole competitive balance picks are the dumbest thing in any professional sport. (except for runner on 2nd in extras)
You exhibit an ignorance of baseball economics,
As the beaver said, “dam”.
Ortiz’s ceiling is a utility player and Hall a one inning reliever. This was an absolute steal for the Orioles.
You’re trolling lol
…or you don’t understand what a “ceiling” is?
Ortiz is a starting SS THIS year and will probably see a few All Star games.
I hope you’re right. At his best, Ortiz profiles as someone like J.J. Hardy without Hardy’s power. (Hardy won a few Gold Gloves for the O’s and should’ve won at least one for the Brewers, too.)
A little better on D, a little less power, a little more BA and OBP. If he has a career like Hardy’s, that would be a great outcome.
Ortiz was the best fielder in Baltimore system. He likely is a gold glover and hit over 300 last year. Sounds like utility player … not… unfortunately Baltimore has Henderson, western, matoes and coming soon holliday…
Good for the Orioles, they got the ace they’ve been looking for. It’s fun to think how high this team’s ceiling is this year and for years to come. They did this rebuild right.
Solid return for the Brewers. I’m always nervous about a team trading a decently regarded prospect/controllable players or two for a 1 year pitching rental cause it can end up poorly even before the season starts. Hate to see when a guy gets hurt like a UCL tear in ST and then misses the year. Hoping he has a dominate season and that the trade works out for both teams!
Brewers need to bring back fan favorite Woodruff now (before Mets sign him). 2-3 year deal. He was always the guy who wanted to be there out of the two. Might have to wait a year on him to recover, but worth it.
Huh?
HOLY CRAP
I like the deal right now, but if we can’t extend/re-sign Burnes, I have a feeling I will hate it in a few years lol.
You did pretty good, Brew Crew. Ortiz and Hall should do very well in your organization (particularly Hall), which is savvier than most.
I was hopeful we could extend him but then I found out he’s a Boras guy (his bb-ref page incorrectly shows agent as CAA).
Even if we don’t extend him, we control his QO pick compensation, so us giving up the competitive balance pick is mostly a wash.
I’m good with Hall and Ortiz for Burnes. Easy win for the Os, IMO.
Burnes will probably go FA. And that’s OK. ENjoy watching him dominate this year and see how it all plays out. Orioles have made a move that makes them a legit contender for the WS.
OK 920, it’s gone from next to 0% to a little higher. I am basing that on Burnes’ words, mostly.
With John Angelos, I would have said almost no chance of a re-sign. With Rubenstein, at least a chance.
Now that’s a complete shock. I had thought the Hoskins acquisition indicated the Brewers were going to try for one final run with Burnes. Fantastic job by Elias again. The Orioles get an ace for two young players who don’t fit into their long-term plans.
For their part, the Brewers made an understandable decision. They get back more for Burnes than by letting him depart in free agency. The compensatory draft pick comes a year earlier, which will speed up their retool.
Still, the Orioles are the clear winner and their group of top prospects remains largely intact.
Only one countermove the Yankees need to make and that is sign Jake Bauer and move Nestor to the bullpen!
So he is a rental for the O’s?
Almost certainly.
Brewers held onto him that long for that return? Hard to believe that the O’s were the only playoff team in on that return
That’s what I’m thinking too. Sheesh!
The Orioles couldn’t have been the only playoff team interested. I think the Brewers like the players. And the pick too.
Just a real head scratcher of a deal. Given the shortage of starting pitching and the number teams (frankly just about every team that considers itself a contender in 2024 is in this category) seeking a front-of-the-rotation horse like Burnes, it’s mind-boggling to me that the Brewers didn’t get more. Burnes is a superior option to any of the remaining FAs and he is considerably more valuable than Cease or Luzardo (arguably the best of what is being dangled in the trade market). Kind of amazing…
Exactly the type of move I have been waiting for the Orioles to make for years!
Burnes makes the entire rotation better. He slots in even above Bradish and G Rodriguez. Now the 4th and 5th starters are Means, who knows how to get outs, and Kremer, who could at least be average. That’s a good rotation.
Ortiz was caught in a numbers game and the thing the Orioles do best is find cheap, effective relievers so I am not worried about filling Hall’s role.
Finally, the team has made a strong move to address a glaring need.
If they can get Burnes to sign an extension, even better!
burnesy joining the dark side the “evil orioles”
Great move ! Gives em legit #1 starter, what they were missing last season. A bulldog who gives u fighting chance vs other teams aces.
I like it both ways, since BA was dealing from a surplus.
But I am not sure how anyone could argue that Mil didn’t get the better value. Burnes was a 3.5 bWAR player last year, and 4.0 in 22. Either one of these two players could 2-3 WAR players for the next 6 years.
The Brewers didn’t get much in return for such a talented pitcher. The Brewers starting rotation is terrible. If they don’t add some quality talent they are going to lose a lot of games this year. Brewers heading backwards.
He is an amazing pitcher but you also have to realize its a rental and to get 2 mlb ready players who have a future in the show AND a top 40 draft pick is tidy business. The Brewers up there draft pool and depending on how they see the draft they could go all out on there 2 picks and get 2 prospects ranked in the top 20 of the draft and go below on a few other picks or could spread the wealth out and get 3 or 4 guys ranked in the top 40 or 50 guys. They have 2 picks in the top 35 then depending on how they finish amd if they are a revenue shearing team they will have one around 50 and one around 60. 2 top 35 pick and 4 on the top 60 or so can really bump up a farm
Once you learn more about Ortiz and Hall, you will change your opinion.
They got a nice return for a player that wasnt resigning. The 2 players seem like high floor middle ceiling types. The SS IMO is a 2nd division floor type with a decent likly hood of being a 1st Division and a all star game here or there. The pitcher has a high likelihood of a 8/9 inning reliever floor and if he finds his control a 2/3 starter. That pick at 34 is super valuable aswell. I wish teams could trade there pics like every other sport, it would make things way more interesting. Even if mlb had a rule were teams cant trade there 1st rounder or have to have either there 1st or 2nd every year
Murphy – the Orioles have a pretty decent history of having good relievers that were failed starters and Hall fits that bill. I also think he could be a high leverage reliever, but doubtful he could be stretched out as starter due to getting hurt when workload goes up.
Ortiz I agree. Well above average glove, likely to be a least an above average hitter but not Cal Ripken (or Gunnar Henderson). I think the Orioles were higher on Westburg slotting in at 2nd, then Holliday at SS and Henderson at 3B. Ortiz wasn’t given a fair shake in 2023 when he came up – he had to come up and sit, watching Frazier and Mateo not hit – and got in 1 game a week. He hit well in AAA.
For the Orioles, Burnes may do more overall even if we’re just talking about 2024 and then he goes. I raised my projected Orioles’ wins by 6 with this move.
Great move by the Orioles. Exactly what they needed. An impact high end workhorse.
Anything happening tonight? Oh? Oh what now? I mean he ain’t no Marcus Stroman or anything…
Honestly though I’m shocked that’s all it took. Burnes is a top 10 starting pitcher. Even if it’s for one year, that’s a steal.
To the peeps saying MIL got hosed because they didn’t get one of Baltimore’s top five prospects:
1. Holliday was NEVER going to happen.
2. Prospects #s 2 and 3 are both outfielders. The Brewers are pretty set there.
3. Prospect #4 plays 3B. So does Tyler Black (a top-50 prospect) and Brock Wilken (the 1st rounder from the last draft). I think there might be another dude with strong potential whose name escapes me right now.
4. The Orioles’ #5 prospect is a catcher. Again, not a position of need for the Brew Crew, especially with another top-50 prospect on the way and, of course, Contreras.
So, that brings us to their #6 guy, who Milwaukee got in the trade. Interesting to see what happens with Adames now. (Personally, I hope he stays, but we’ll see how things shake out.) Plus, DL and the #34 pick.
Time will ultimately give us the full story, but in this moment it seems relatively fair for both sides and what each club has and is trying to accomplish. Baltimore is throwing in some chips to win it all this year and Milwaukee was ckearly looking to add a couple of young, almost MLB-ready players and grab an extra pick.
Speaking of the pick, Arnold crushed that last draft. I’m excited to see how this next one turns out.
El Dude understands the Brewers. That’s a fact. I see Adames being traded for Keaton Winn. That’s what is going to happen, or someone young and upcoming like him. The Brewers have set their new plan completely in motion. Good job both teams.
Yeah, I think Brewers ownership took the shortsighted view on this one. They should have gone for the most valuable guy they could get from the Orioles and then flip said prospect to another team for a possibly better fit in a position of need. Maybe the Orioles were too stubborn to give up one of their top 3 prospects, but you would have hoped the Brewers tried. I just don’t know how they walk away without a guy with major upside as both of these guys are already 25 and (unless they’re late bloomers) have shown what they already have. But anyways, good for Orioles. Bad for my team.
Orioles also get a comp pick in 2025 when Burnes leaves after getting a QO. Hall, Ortiz, #34 in 2024 draft and probably about the same comp pick in 2025.
I mean, for Brewers, it’s an ok return. But you wonder if they waited too long and what deals they might have already passed on.
Winners: Orioles, Snell (figuring Yanks up their offer!), Rest of NL Central
Not Losers: Brewers
Probable Losers: White Sox, Rest of AL East
Brewers payroll over $20 million below 2023. Do they spend any of it for a SP or just be content to be mediocre in 2024?
Another top of rotation SP (Burnes) no longer available
Zaidi’s excuse will be Burnes will become a FA next offseason & I can go after him then
Not a bad excuse from a team that needs a hell of a lot more than 1 pitcher.
Good luck trying to resign him after this season Orioles. He has a Cy-Young in his back pocket, His agent is Boras and he’ll easily command 35-40 M a year basically what the rangers over payed to sign DeGrom
Great, then we’ll replace the comp pick.
Ortiz + Hall for a year of Burnes is a no-brainer.
I think Elias accepts Burnes will go FA and he is comfortable with that.
Orioles window is wide open while this move pretty much closes the Brewers
MLBTR articles about pitchers never mention their W-L records. Such silliness. I mean, okay, metrics are about effectiveness and supersede the notion of “winning,” but c’mon. There is something to be said for winning. Some guys just have the knack. Or the force of will.
Like Steve Carlton. And all the other legendary SPs in the HOF.
Meanwhile BA accounts for 2/3 of OPS, but people are frightened of being ridiculed by enthusiasts of modern metrics who use newer formulas as cudgels.
If you have more wins, that usually means you are staying in games and not a five inning pitcher.
Yep. And you are probably pitching well.
Of course I agree that reliever Wins mean nothing…
Good point. Baseball is somewhat like the stock market. Statistics use raw numbers so if you have a feel for raw numbers, you don’t need to use statistics. Some statistics are just gimmicks and confusing. It’s like thinking boxing promoter Don King is exceptional brilliant because of the language he uses.
The Orioles will ultimately fall short if Kimbrel whois prone to choking is their closer.
If Kimbrel doesn’t look good they can always upgrade at the trade deadline. There is also a small chance that Felix comes back by then but I wouldn’t count on it.
Yeah, I doubt Felix returns in 2024 but they may get help from the minors. Maybe McDermott brings some bullpen innings..
The trick is to not actually need the closer at least 4 games out of 7 😉
Congratulations to Orioles fans, you got a good one seen plenty of Burnes against the Cubs and Brewers get prospects that I’m sure they’ll develop into stars.
Now I wonder about how competitive the Brewers will be without Burnes, this definitely lowers their outlook to win the NL Central.
As a Brewers fan, I am disgusted. They definitely did not get the value of an ace pitcher, much less the value of someone like Corbin Burnes. So much for this not being a rebuilding year!
@Barb: Burnes is only there one year. Nothing wrong with the return. If the Os sign him to a long term contract, they will give up two good prospects, a maybe prospect and a boatload of money. No matter what happened in Milwaukee, Burnes was only there one more year. Good trade for both teams.
I had a nice, lengthy reply written out and the form ate it, Dave. But here’s what I think.
Both of the players the Brewers got could be very good. They seem close to MLB ready if not entirely there (much depends on how good their health is, especially with regards to the pitcher, Hall).
I know Burnes was only going to be in Milwaukee one more year no matter what. There’s no way in the world Milwaukee could pay him his asking price, not with Scott Boras as his agent. But when the Brewers signed Hoskins, I had hopes they’d try for one more good year with Burnes in the fold and that 2024 would finally be the year the Brewers would return to the World Series.
I’m a long-time fan. (Don’t ask how long.) I’ve been waiting a long time for my team to return to the WS.
By GM Matt Arnold trading Burnes, this makes it far, far less likely the Brewers will get even close to winning the NL pennant, much less return to the WS. (Peralta’s an excellent pitcher, yes. But he was #3 last year behind Burnes and Woodruff. Some guys do better when they’re not the ace, so I hope Peralta can step up rather than take a big step back.)
That’s why I’m so frustrated tonight.
I think the Brewers are better now, especially in the long run.
Barb I believe you may be pleasantly surprised at the return, but understand your frustration. As an O’s fan, frustration has been our middle name for a lot of years now.
This a light return for a dominant player
Hall is NO Hader
Now? No.
2 years from now? TBD.
…how do you know? Have you seen Hall’s Curveball? Haders slider is a sick weapon, but Halls Curveball is pretty sexy; fast, w/ hard late break, big arch, and Hall is very good about throwing it inside against RHH’s (for K’s or balls when needed)..the effect is very Hader slider-y.
Both have gas. There’s a lot of similarities.
Well as an Orioles fan I’m ecstatic. This was the guy I was hoping they get. I hope they sign him long term. I know he wants to test the market. Just the level of talent in Baltimore might make him change his mind.
Milwaukee got a good package.
Hall floor HL reliever, ceiling is 2-3 starter.
Ortiz is a 2-3 DWAR SS with 2 OWAR he can pitch in. 115 WRC+type player.
34th pick. Is the 34th pick. Could be whatever.
Gonna miss Hall I though he would be one of the 3 set up guys for O’s, but you can’t get an ACE for roster flotsam and spare change. Ortiz was blocked and at best would be a UT. Glad to see him get moved.
Can somebody explain why Baltimore’s allowed to trade a pick? Thanks
Competitive Balance picks can be traded.
The Comp Picks are the only picks that can be traded. Think that was 2 CBA’s ago they allowed that. Been happening for a few years teams moving Comp Picks.
So is Brandon Woodruff available then?
Available to occupy a spot on the IL for possibly the entire ’24 season.
Woodruff is a free agent. Brewers released him. He was going into his last year of control and would make 12m to keep and wouldnt pitch at all.
Christian Yelich, Devin Williams and Willy Adames are absolutely available. I anticipate a Williams’ trade preseason and an Adames’ trade between Spring and trade deadline. The Brewers would have to donate Yelich and his contract for him to be traded.
Congrats O’s fans. It has to be awesome for you guys to see you team operating like an actual MLB team again. That long wait had to hurt. It is no fun when your team isn’t even trying to improve their team in the offseason. I was shocked at the lack of moves by the Orioles up until this point. We Jays fans went through a long span ourselves where there never any hope of a major offseason move. It sucked. I don’t wish that upon any team’s fanbase.
There is one thing I think large market fans miss when they talk about how small market teams are competitive so it’s no big deal if they can’t afford top FA. Very few things as a baseball fan are as exciting or bring as much hope as your team acquiring a star player in the offseason. It sucks that some fan bases may never get to experience that
Orioles now have to be the favourites in the AL East. Hopefully this makes Atkins realize he can’t stand pat. I would like to think he already knew that, but he wasn’t talking like he did. It could just be a negotiation ploy, but it wasn’t easy reading about him saying they were likely to only bring in one bat before the Turner signing.
It has definitely been a fun few days for us O’s fans. Talk about changing the narrative lol.
Calling John Middleton! Hello, where are you?
This trade makes the Houser deal that much more of a head scratcher.
I didn’t like that trade at all for them. Houser is a solid #5/6 starter or long reliever, and Tyrone Taylor is a very decent 4th outfielder who had an OPS of over .900 for the last couple months of 2023. They gave them away for nothing.
FWIW Carlos Baerga is saying that Baltimore is also planning on signing Snell and J.D Martinez as well. With all that young talent in place if those moves happen on top of Burnes the Orioles will be the Dodgers of the AL talentwise.
Where did you hear/read this that Baerga said? Could you provide a link?
He said it…..It’s a bunch of hot air. JDM doesn’t even make sense for us.
Carlos Baerga was a pretty good ball player.
He does not seem to be a great analyst lol.
Neither of those moves are happening.
Zero validity
He has broken some signings in the past, but also been wrong about others. So far from certain, but I wouldn’t say zero validity. He was right about the Jays signing Turner for example.
The Red Sox used to operate like this. Develop great positional talent, keep the valuable ones, and trade the surplus for franchise altering pitching. Moncada & Kopech for Sale = 2018 WS. As a Boston fan, I’m glad to see Baltimore competitive again. As a Boston fan, I’m sad to see ownership squander away what we had.
We didn’t have the depth to pull this off. It would be the equivalent of Raphael + Yorke, for one year of an SP that would get us a WC slot, maybe.
Get a new owner, get a new starting pitcher.
I think that is a bad return for the brewers unless their pitching development is able to turn hall into a starter.
Ortiz is ok,he profiles to be a good glove with slightly below average but not terrible offense, but I don’t think he is stud but Hall is the X factor here. His stuff is insane but his command is just bad and he does look more like a reliever.
If all they get is a 1.5-2 war shortstop and a good reliever I don’t really love it that much.
On the other hand if hall does become a really dominant reliever like Hader he could be traded in a couple years for another top50 prospect (plus 1 or 2 extra prospects out of a good systems top15) as the deadline price for dominant relievers with cheap control has gone through the roof.
But still at first glance the return does look underwhelming, ortiz is 25 and totally a spare piece for the Os and I don’t think hall could become a starter.
You’re not mentioning the 34th pick in next years draft, isn’t that the real “x” factor here..
Yeah should have mentioned that. That is essentially the QO pick they would have gotten had they not traded him, that certainly is a nice bonus.
Ortiz is a only a “spare part” because of Gunnar and Jackson, the reigning ROY and consensus #1 prospect in the sport respectively, both of whom are best deployed at SS. He is a very good prospect in his own right.
He is blocked now but last year he was 25 and couldn’t beat out jorge matteo and Ramon urias.
He isn’t a bad player but above average regular middle infielders aren’t blocked at age 25 by Jorge matteo.
Heston Kjerstad and Colton Cowser couldn’t “beat out” Aaron Hicks for playing time either, so using that as a talent evaluator is kind of silly.
Didn’t he play Arnie on LA Law?
They mention “discontent” among the team in ‘22, maybe players were irked, as a fan I was glad they traded him so the prince situation wouldn’t repeat itself, admittedly I was initially skeptical about the return, but since flipping Ruiz for Willy C. That deal is about as good as it gets, when the Tigers were trading off players they were raked over the coals for a few of the returns on some of the deals but hey that’s turning out prettaayy prettaayy good, so of course the bandwagon cubs fans/delusional cards fans will rejoice at the “downfall” of the Crew but it’s just more of the same because choosing to view things a certain way doesn’t change reality, and when you’re really not careful you end up cheering for what only ends up being your own demise..
Yea we finally got a real pitcher after not having one for 20 years, but for a 1 year Rental? .. meh. Baltimore won’t spend the money to resign him, so don’t get to excited baltimore fans. what can I say, I’m still pissed at them for not making the WS last year. Is the move cool? Yea.. am I excited.. meh, am I going to waste 6 months of my life watching them next season just to see them fall short for the 40th year in a row.. nope.
The Brewers haven’t been to a WS since 1982, the Pirates 1979 and the Mariners never.
The Os won the WS in 1983. The Pirates haven’t won since 1979, the Indians since 1948. The Rockies, Rays, Padres, Brewers and Mariners have never won the WS.
Re: O’s and money
O’s will have new ownership and I believe they will spend the $$$ to retain Burnes if he pitches well for them.
Caveat Dept:
Pitching vs. the AL East is a lot more difficult than pitching in the NL Central.
O’s should easily top 100 Ws this year. Brewers will be lucky, real lucky, to sniff .500.
Backup – I don’t know about “easily” 100 W, last year’s 101 was heavily due to wonderful extras and 1 and 2 run game records. The Rangers (90 wins) were very similar. With Burnes coming on though I raised my expectations from 88 to 94 wins, so from wild card contender to div front runner. (Better team on paper but betting on regression on the extras/1-run/2-run records)
A particular poor run from Burnes in ‘22 cost the Crew the playoffs (as they essentially stated in the arb hearing VS Burns) then Burns blew an early 3-0 lead in the playoffs last year VS the Dbacks, he’s good but no Verlander…..
He’s “no Verlander” because only Verlander is Verlander. Trading Burnes now was foolish and especially for that return.
Perhaps I’ll eat my words in the fall? But, I doubt it!
Why would u doubt it, history shows us trading a guy/getting return keeps lesser spending franchises competitive, everyone was complaining about how foolish to trade Hader, well a lil over a year later they have an All Star catcher who isn’t even arb eligible yet and a AAA pitcher of the year ready to make his debut, trading Hader for Contreras alone straight up would’ve been a huge get/win value wise for the Crew but they have a legit middle rotation lefty on top of that, trade Adames, as much as we love the guy in MIL it is what it is and we’ll get decades of club control over extremely talented players, it hurts a lil this year but isn’t necessarily a death blow, the reds/pirates still suck and the cubs are the cubs, maybe Craig will help but now he’s drinking that chi town water so we’ll see, at any rate I like my team competitive and they won this division by nine games, was Willy/Corbin worth nine games last year? Potentially so but how many games will they get out of the young talent they’ve acquired? Well I can tell u in ‘25 burns would’ve been worth zero games for them so instead they traded a lil now for a lot later, that’s really the no brainer, don’t stuff your face today to be a fatty tomorrow, it’s called looking ahead…..
Put me on record that the Milwaukee Brewers are the clear winner of this trade.
2B Joey Ortiz has an exceptional record in the pros. He is a perfect compliment for Willy Adames up the middle.
SP-L DL Hall is a SO machine and appeared to finally find the strike zone with consistency. Certainly with the Brewers’ ability to develop pitchers, They won’t miss Corbin Burnes very long.
I think Ethan Small should do well from the pen somewhere. He’s a SP in the MiLB and is not bad but, could benefit from the pen… IMO
This being said, Baltimore gained a very good starter and solidifies the O’s already good rotation. Corbin Burnes is a very good pitcher but I don’t think he’s a great pitcher. We’ll see. Certainly, the O’s will benefit short term and perhaps this helps new ownership. Still, I believe DL Hall will be a good SP long after Burnes is gone.
Burnes is done with that shoulder. Nice move Brewers. Love trading broken pitchers for everyday stars.
What’s wrong with his shoulder?
Woodruff has the bum shoulder – not Burnes.
Oops. My bad. I get those guy mixed up. Watch this Ortiz guy. Looks like the real deal.
Great move. I think this makes the Red Sox worse much more than it makes the O’s better, but it still makes the O’s better. Red Sox get hurt the most just by sitting idle in this division.
Didn’t realize it was a one year rental, so I’m on the fence. Still good they’re making am attempt when Sox are doing nothing.
Red Sox will be bringing up the rear in the AL East in 2024. Absolutely no reason to even think they can play .500 ball. Bean Towners should hope the NBA playoffs last until late June so they’ll have something meaningful (Celtics) to watch for the first three months of the baseball season.
I think you’re mostly right but I wouldn’t count them out in a second. No team should be counted out before the season starts.
Still good they’re making am attempt when Sox are doing nothing.
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It’s good for the RS. We weren’t going to make up the 23-game deficit no matter what we did. This makes BA better for 2024, but worse for 2025-2029.
@Chaim
Bizarre comment. How’s this really about the Red Sox at all? Stop being a victim.
I’m just saying it makes them worse. We had been rumored to be after Burnes too and it’s another one of the charts. Not sure how that’s victimizing in any way.
I know this is off subject. It’s something that drives me crazy. It’s the what wrong with Vlad Jr. What wrong is he didn’t play a 52-110 team 19 times last season.
Vlad Jr. Vs 2021 Os 12 of 48 hrs in 19 games
VLAD Jr. Vs 2023 Os 0 of 26 hrs in 12 games
It’s simple.
On paper Baltimore has the potential to be the best team in the division. If Bradish proves he is legit and Rodriquez starts fulfilling his potential that is a great front 3. Then with all the young position players they are primed to have some nice balance. If they go get a Montgomery they could be the best team in the AL going away.
First time since the early 80’s Baltimore feels legit. I know they competed at the beginning of the Angelos era but they never would do anything to put themselves over the top during that run.
Gonna be a painful year in Milwaukee this summer. Rhys Hoskins might now have second thoughts about signing with a team that traded away its ace for two guys who may never have any more than a few cups of coffee in the majors.
Might as well trade Adames now, play all your kids and hope for the best. The NL Central is still weak, so anything can happen there in terms of winning the division. However, right now, I look at the Reds as having the best shot to win it.
Privately, I’m rooting for the Pirates to surprise everybody.
Ortiz has sneaky hard hit and contact velocity numbers. He is a very good prospect but he is blocked by better looking prospects.
Hall is the trap. All his scouting numbers are off the charts but his control hasn’t improved. He is pretty much a scratch ticket.
I wonder how many options Hoskins had open? He and Clevinger should have been signed awhile ago considering they are big money and years type players. It was odd to see them both hang out there.
Those late 90s teams were legit. The 97 team had 4+Palmerio HOFers and some other guys that were really good. 1998 Orioles had highest payroll.
Baltimore was legit in the mid-nineties, coming very close to a WS appearance, as well as being legit for several years a decade ago. They haven’t been hapless since the early eighties, dude.
Goose – agree with other commenters here the mid 90s Orioles were legit. 1996’s lineup was nearly historic, 1997’s team was extremely well rounded and 1998 nearly as good. The reason 1998 didn’t work out was that Ray Miller was not Davey Johnson…that was a waste of a playoff caliber team. And they probably should have contended in 1995 but Phil Regan was the worst manager they ever had until Dave Trembley came along.
I didn’t do a good job clarifying. The 90’s teams were good but what ticked me off is I seem to remember not making that final push trade or dig trade to get them over the top.
We are going to make a run but make a run with what we got.
Didn’t take long for Orioles new ownership to announce their presence with authority!
I’m a Mets fan and I love what the O’s did here. They have an incredible farm system and added a great pitcher and if they need another one they’ll just go back to their loaded system and get another one.
This is a good deal for both teams. Brewers get a potential starter (or closer), and a infielder with fairly high ceilings who are under club control for a few years as well as a draft pick.
Meanwhile, Orioles get a frontline starter for one season potentially, along with a draft pick should Burnes reject a QO (and he will, barring catastrophe)
Worst case scenario, Burnes is awful. But it’s only for one season. Best case, Burnes is as advertised, plus a draft pick
The Brewers have officially ducked out for a few seasons…
John Henry: Oh yeah? Yeah? Well, we’re still ‘interested’ in Jakob Junis.
Dayummmm….it might be the O’s time
Would love to see the Yankees sign Brandon Woodruff to a 2 year contract and than Trevor Bauer also to a two year deal. Set the NL rotation up strong for next two years. Than be smart and if you are not in contention for a wild card or if you look weak compared to other playoff teams trade off pending free agents like Torres if your not going to sign him and even Soto to create long term success.
Now they should only live once and sign Snell.
Snell is going to be the Yankees countermove.
I would rather sign Montgomery tbh.
I do not trust Snell’s ability to continue to walk the tightrope with his super high BB rate in the AL East over the long-term.
Brilliant. Why? Because Burnes is not a Boras client. Time to push that guy out of baseball.
Go O’s. My new favorite team.
Welcome aboard, please make sure to read the syllabus. Failure to yell “OH!” during the national anthem will result in your banishment to Rockies fandom 🙂
(Sorry Roxbros, love ya and rooting for ya!)
So looking at this trade a little closer I can see why the brewers perhaps did this deal.
1) Burns is a rental and with his comments and Boras as his agent he will definitely go to free agency. As we currently see with boras free agents I don’t think anyone is trading for him and thinking we can extend him like a glasnow. Perhaps that kept his value down some.
2). Brewers wanted a shortstop that can play now. I think they will adames before the season begins. Looking at the other shortstop prospects this was about the best shortstop they were going to get. Plus he can play now.
3) The pitcher they got back does have good stuff. The brewers have been good at getting a lot out of their pitchers. So maybe there is a chance they can get his control issues under control and he can be a good starter. Very least he should be a decent or better reliever.
4). The pick does have real value. Of course that will determine if they hit on that pick.
Lastly I think the free agent pitching market has been so high this offseason that many even myself expected burns to require an over pay. Especially after signing Hoskins and this team looking like the best in the central as of now. People have said they didn’t have leverage but they did because it made great sense to keep him and go for it. Unlike the white Sox who aren’t going to contend barring something surprising.
Now there is some questions about the players got back. From the bat to the control issues. Of course most prospect have questions. Biggest concerns I would say is how old the two prospects they got back (I count hall as a prospect), going to be 26 this year. I think from the brewers side we will see this year just how well this trade is for them.
I’d still feel like needed to do this deal and really can’t dislike it even if the prospects pan out that were traded.
I missed this:
Following an astounding loss in arbitration against the Brewers, Corbin Burnes has dumped his agency, CAA, who has represented him for years, and has signed on to be represented by Scott Boras.
Baseball reference is not up to date.
Ugh.
Excellent analysis. Both prospects, imho, have a high floor. Hall is likely headed for being a high-leverage RP, maybe closer, but has the talent to be a #3. Ortiz is like a league-average SS bat, with a top-tier glove.
6 years each of two guys that are at least league-average is a pretty good haul for a one-year rental.
Congrats Orioles fans. This is a huge move for your team. I have to believe this makes Baltimore World Series favorites. They already had the best record in the AL last year and just added a recent Cy Young award winner. Kudos to ownership for sticking with Brandon Hyde. He is an outstanding coach and directed the Orioles back to extreme relevance again. Enjoy this run.
I like this for the Orioles. Going all in. Nice!
Too bad they lost their phenom closer late last season. Hopefully Craig Kimbrel will pitch his best for them in 2024. That guy is either really good or really bad. Doesn’t seem to be an in between for him.
The Brewers did very well on this trade
…said no one.
…except for all of the people who are baseball literate 😉
Brew Crew did very well for 1 year of Burnes.
Said me.
Yes!!! Ortiz has no path to the majors on the orioles. Hall would have been a big part of bullpen, but they’ll make do. And I’m sure with new ownership they’ll try to extend Burnes. Amazing.
Lots of great news for Baltimore and their fans lately. Super happy for them!
It has been quite the vibe shift here in B-more since the Ravens lost over the weekend lol.
I was rooting hard for your ravens! Hate to see them bounced.
I don’t see how this makes Milwaukee better for this season. They are now without Woodruff and Burnes and have no replacements for either. They have done virtually nothing to improve a middling offense. Their only strengths are their bullpen and defense, though a glance at the pen shows a lot of overachievers who are likely to regress (except Williams, of course). With such a wide-open, weak division, one would think they’d take a final run at a title instead of trying to do an overhaul-and-compete.
“Done nothing to improve offense” they only signed the best FA offensive player available, also do u have a clue who abner Uribe is, apparently not but actually watch some baseball and u most certainly will, why post/comment when u clearly have no idea what you’re talking about so apparently u don’t have much interest, so again why comment!?
You think Hoskins was the best hitter available? I don’t agree with that, even if looking strictly at FAs. Uribe has talent, but he’s never made a big league start. How does he replace Burnes or Woodruff?
He was the best hitter available in his home that morning when the call came in. The dog was still out back and was unable to take the call.
Who avsilbe has been posting better more consistent numbers than Hoskins and plays a position of need for MIL, come on guys you’re not even naming someone better just trolling, also he said the Crew pen was full of “overachievers” likely to regress, not sure D Williams change up or uribes 102 mph sinker align with that “take” anyway that’s just what I was referencing/responding to is all
I guess we are not counting Ohtani, which is fair because he was never really available for the Brewers. As far as the rest, maybe Bellinger, Martinez and Soler to name a few. You could argue none of those are terribly consistent, but since Hoskins just missed an entire year, you have to admit his numbers were, uh, down a bit.
Shrewd move by the Orioles. Get their ace for a year for a couple of guys getting ready to fall off their prospect list. Both of them are 25 years old. Ortiz turns 26 mid-season, hasn’t shown a ton of pop in the minors, and has a career .806 OPS in the minors. Just seems like a solid player, but not someone who is likely to become a star at this point. Hall is 25 and has always been better on paper than in real life. His WHIP in the minors was pushing 1.30 and was over 1.40 in AAA. Not a great sign for the majors, where he has pitched 29 games and gotten hammered thus far. O’s converted him to a RP over the last year, and that may be where he is best served. So the O’s got an ace for a year to try to make a run at a title and gave up two older former prospects who will more likely be role players than stars in the majors and a crap shoot draft pick. Well played, O’s. Well played.
I’ll reply to myself and say that Hall was a solid RP last year, and it was 2022 that he really got beaten up. He likely will be a solid RP if they keep him as a RP. They may have to make that choice right away, rather than wasting time with a 25 year old who’s clock has already started trying to figure out if he can figure it out as a SP.
The .806 total OPS is kind of misleading.
It’s more like .850 since he reached AA in 2022.
The guardians, and other teams could of made better offers. Even if burnes was only be there for one year. Brewers fans have to be piss off.
By golly, let’s give that new ownership group a big shiny WS trophy for Camden Yards!!! LET’S GO O’S!!!!!
Rangers get DeGrom back – DeGrom > Burnes
In what world would you expect deGrom to stay healthy for any length of time?
The O’s have a vastly superior rotation. Not even close tbh.
@Moneyballer
Yup, DeGrom can certainly be better than Burnes. But, like a Jaguar, the best drive you’ll have is the one back home from the shop since it’s the last drive before the tow truck has to bring it back there because something else has broken.
DeGrom is a fragile flower.
All draft picks should be able to be traded. It should be like the NFL. No one cares about the MLB draft because every year there’s literally no drama involved. If we had picks being swapped and players being dealt, more people would get interested. If your team had 3 first round picks, would you scout some players before the draft and tune in? I would.
Moneyballer — Apples and Oranges comparison. Because lack of Salary cap.
Without a Cap, baseball would watch all the rich teams buy all the top picks from small/medium market teams. Dodgers win WS then buy the Pittsburghs #1 pick (Pit saves millions).
Also, every other league, drafted players play in the league that next season. Not in baseball, Minor leagues for all drafties.
And then even w/ truckated Draft now, it’s still the largest draft in sports.
Free Market, Minor Leagues, Massive draft. Apples and Oranges. Embrace the differences, let’s not homomoginze all the Leagues. It okay to be different. Different is different; not better, not worse, just different.
I think when you compare this is a good trade for both teams. Orioles should work on contract extension now by turning his 15 million this year into 30. They are at around 70 million now. To reach top 20 payrolls from last year they have 50 million to spare.
Interestingly, the trade rumors for Burnes died down almost immediately this offseason. Then within 24 or so hours of a reported ownership change, this deal gets announced. I don’t personally believe in coincidences like that, but I love this for the O’s and the Cubs as well. What a time.
Mike Elias strategically making his new boss look good
Fascinating deal for both teams.
Milwaukee: super bummed for Murph, but this was inevitable. Hopefully Freddy Peralta balls out this year as the ace. On the other hand, Hall has good pedigree and excellent upside…this organization has shown it can develop pitching. Also, bringing in Ortiz gives them their SS of the future. Maybe the infield of the next few years will solidify as Monasterio at 3B, Ortiz at SS, and Turang at 2B?
Baltimore: They needed this. Burnes, Bradish, Rodriguez has a chance to be the front end of the best rotation in the AL. They are certainly division favorites. Also wonder how aggressive this new FO will be with extensions. Will they look to extend Burnes with a megadeal the way NY did with Lindor as the symbol of a new era? Will they look to dole out extensions to budding young stars like Henderson in the way that the Braves had to create a longterm superstar core that has youth?
Second half ERA’s of the Orioles projected starting rotation
Burnes – 2,71 (9th)
Bradish – 2,34 (2nd)
Rodriguez – 2.58 (5th)
Means – 2.66* (did not meet innings requirement for ranking)
Kremer – 3.25 (17th)
Adding Burnes to these improving young pitchers makes for a really intriguing rotation this year.
Burnes, Bradish, and GrayRod give the O’s 3 of the top 12 SPs in MLB by measure of Stuff+.
That’s pretty wild.
Burnes is similar to Jordan Lyles. Should be a good get for the Orange Birds.
Nice haul for Milwaukee. Glad to see Baltimore do something impactful. Doubt they retain Burnes, but this should show others they are now a serious front office.
The 2024 NL Central Division Title is now officially a 5-way toss-up!
I don’t get the hype with Joey Ortiz.
A 0.904 OPS at AAA projects a player to be average to above average in mlb. An average to above average player who is also a plus defender at SS is a valuable player. Overall Ortiz is a high floor prospect who has the potential to be a 4 WAR player if he lives up to the offensive and defensive projections.
Borderline elite defensive SS with excellent contact skills who has put up a combined .850ish OPS at AA and AAA.
That’s a really good prospect.
Orioles have made some really good moves without busting up their farm system.
This is a well groomed organization starting back with Dan Duquette, 2011-18.
No wonder the Angelo’s got huge money
I’m a fan….now
Of course the O’s have possibly taken yet another step forward and toward at least a World Series. But I also think the Brewers did an excellent job of getting two prospects that can help them take a huge step in the right direction. Joey Ortiz would actually be an even higher rated prospect in the O’s system if it wasn’t as strong as it is. He has some emerging hitting skills with some pop and is a ++ Infielder. And DL Hall has the potential and enough experience to be a bonafide MLB closer as well as a middle of the rotation starter. The bonus is that he’s a power lefty.
I say go all in and sign Snell and maybe a vet like JD Martinez
I don’t know why anybody would want to trade for Cease since it looks as if the white sox are asking way to much. Cease may be only 28 still but he had a terrible year. After looking at what the orioles traded to get Burnes, a much better pitcer than Cease, the white sox must wake up!