The Mets plan to move Brandon Nimmo from center field to left field for the 2024 season at least, manager Carlos Mendoza revealed to reporters yesterday (link via Anthony DiComo of MLB.com). The outfield shuffle comes on the heels of New York’s offseason signing of Harrison Bader on a one-year, $10.5MM contract.
The move is hardly unexpected, given that Bader ranks as one of the sport’s top defenders in center, but it’s still notable just one year after Nimmo’s ability to handle center field was a contributing factor in the team’s decision to re-sign him on an eight-year, $162MM contract. President of baseball operations David Stearns suggested last month that a specific outfield alignment had not yet been settled upon, but the Mets will go with what looked to be the most probable option. With Bader on a one-year pact, it’s possible Nimmo will end up patrolling center again in the near future — and he could do so as soon as this season in the event of an injury to Bader. But for the time being, Mendoza made clear the plan is an alignment of Nimmo in left, Bader in center and Starling Marte in right field on most days.
Mendoza praised Nimmo’s openness to the move. Nimmo himself told DiComo and others that Stearns asked him early in the offseason about his willingness to move to a corner, should the team sign a free agent center fielder with plus defensive skills. “I told him, ‘Honestly, my goal at this point in my career is to win a World Series. If you think that creating a better outfield defense or adding these guys to our roster is going to help our chances of winning a World Series, then I’ll do whatever it takes to do that,'” Nimmo said.
On paper, it should give the Mets a strong defensive group on the grass. Nimmo’s defensive grades in center field took a step back in ’23, but Statcast and Ultimate Zone Rating both pegged him as roughly average. (Defensive Runs Saved was more bearish, casting his glovework as a negative.) Bader ranks fourth among all big league players, regardless of position, in Statcast’s Outs Above Average metric, dating back to the 2018 season. DRS has him tied for 18th among all MLB players in that same span. Marte posted negative grades in 2023 but was also hobbled by a groin strain in addition to missing time with migraines. At 35, he’s likely lost a step or two, but Marte previously graded as an elite left fielder — so a return to at least solid glovework in right field shouldn’t be out of the question.
In all likelihood, Nimmo will play some center this year. Bader has been on the injured list seven times in the past three seasons (once the Covid-related IL, but the 10-day IL on six other occasions). In that span, he’s dealt with a fractured rib, plantar fasciitis and strains of his groin, oblique and hamstring. As is common with many elite defenders in center, the devil-may-care attitude with which Bader approaches his craft leaves him susceptible to IL stints. The reckless abandon required to crash into a wall at full speed or lay out for spectacular diving grabs leads to plenty of highlight reel appearances but also plenty of bumps and bruises (if not worse).
In the big picture, the Mets’ outfield alignment could continue to change in the short term. Outfielder Drew Gilbert, acquired from the Astros in the Justin Verlander trade, is widely considered to be among the game’s top 100 prospects and could push for a spot in the majors this season. He’s a center fielder with a real chance to stick at the position. Next year’s free agent class in center is pretty thin — unless Cody Bellinger signs a deal that allows him to opt back into free agency next winter — though if the Bader fit works out, it’s always possible the two parties explore a longer-term fit.
Brandon Nimmo has been consistently better than Bellinger the last several yrs and yet Nimmo was able to quickly find common ground with the Mets. It’s your move, Belli.
Tough comp b/c the since ousted Mets FO took on a lot of questionable money/length contracts (with owner blessing). Nimmo missed quite a few games outside of that ’22 contract year. Good to see he was durable first year of deal in 2023.
Guessing other FO’s look at the various Mets signings as cautionary tales rather than something to come really close to when assessing a win-win deal with Bellinger.
Getting the largest total of generational wealth, geographic & family preferences, wanting to play for a contender to increase chance of getting a ring and much more. So many variables. You would think Bellinger could work out a contract with alot of guaranteed $, opt outs (in the event of a major injury (his back etc.) Some possible teams (early in FA) are probably out. (need filled or budget at a max)
If remaining FAs are willing to a major deferral of salary over 25+ years or so like Ohtani they can probably work it out but its not impossible without
It just takes a few teams left that some GM (with ownership approval) will take that risk.
He could decide to take a 1-3 year deal in some kind of mercenary role in a team with a closing window OR team UP and coming.
His best bet probably is the Cubs for something like 5/125mil with opt outs after years 2&3. Nine figures good for him and club probably doesn’t care if he walks for greener pastures in his 30s after the 2yrs while their farmhands come along.
Or something really creative with the Giants. He’s running low on options
Belli’s hard hit rate is poor. Is he the old MVP or an expensive mistake?
Wouldn’t it make more sense to make the older and injured Marte back to left field? Nimmo has the arm for RF.
@roob
I love Nimmo, he gets to balls quickly and gets his throws off quickly, but he has a weak throwing arm.
Are you surprised that Bellinger couldn’t, or didn’t, quickly get a deal comparable to Nimmo’s after just one good year out of the last three?
Belly is a bum compared to nimo. Nimo is a superstar base runner and fielder. And I think he out hit belly. Crazy how this all works. Oh yea- nimo has a job. Belly is sitting on his sofa waiting for his phone to ring. Boras might have lost his number.
Low key the Mets might actually have the best defense in baseball next year. That OF is amazing on the grass and Francisco is still a beast at SS, with the glove. I know it’s easy (and fun) to punk the Mets but I actually like what they are doing.
Yeah. Bader actually makes them better at 3+ positions: he’s a big upgrade over Nimmo in CF, Nimmo is very good in left, and it keeps McNeil at 2nd rather than shifting him into the OF at times. The plus is because this now gives them a very strong, if not elite defense up the middle AND across all 3 OF positions.
That said, this was all done to aid and support a pitching staff that can be described as mediocre at best (and even that may be generous).
“Making them better” in a very, very small way.
Fwiw Nimmo’s been worth +2 OAA in LF over the last 5 years. He’s very average there.
Marte & Stewart are well below average in RF.
McNeil at 32 rates to be a hair above average at 2B (+1 in 2023). Alonso is below average but has only been as bad as -8 in each of two seasons. 3B rates to be a black hole of arrgh.
The Mets are only above average on defense at SS, CF, and if Alvarez can stop throwing the ball into RF on pickoffs, C. Those are good places to be above average, but most of that gets canceled out at other spots.
They rate to be below average at 1B, 3B, and RF, and right around average at 2B and LF.
“This was all done” because the Mets didn’t have more than Nimmo who was capable of playing the OF and the budget didn’t allow more than $12m for a couple of OFers, which is why they picked up a couple of backup OFers instead of good full-time players or hitters that moved the needle, who were too expensive for them or required multiyear deals that hamstring them in 2025 and after. If you have $12m to spend you get a couple of glove guys who can’t hit b/c you can’t afford anything else—and then you tailor your talking points to fit your budget.
Having a couple of part-timers good on defense doesn’t give us magical benefits, unfortunately. We don’t get to double count the half-dozen runs saved and multiply that by -ERA. Also, if they save 10 runs, that’s nice, but iirc HB and TT had OPS+’s of something like 69 and 91. They’ll be giving back most of the runs they save on offense.. Most, and maybe more.
@JackStrawb
Impressive analysis.
Took the words right out of my mouth. IF they all stay healthy, and Marte seemingly is looking very strong and healthy currently, the Mets will have a top defensive outfield for sure. Stearns is no dummy so it will be quite interesting to see how this all unfolds for the Mets.
‘Interesting” is the right word for it. Let’s add that Tyrone Taylor is no slouch on defense, either. And he seems due for a bigger role. His presence enables the Mets to give Marte and Bader extra time off
in order to help keep them fresh and healthy.
@DugoutJester In the best shape of his life?
The Mets have Nimmo in LF, +2 OAA in his last 5 years there. They have Stewart and Marte who, if we’re being sane about this, will subtract on defense what Bader and Taylor add, not to mention how Bader or Taylor at the plate will cost the Mets more than they add on defense.
Sad to say it won’t be interesting at all. We’ll see some terrific catches in the OF and an offense that ends, or I should say ‘tails off’ with…
McNeil
Alvarez (four months of sub.-.399 slg) / Narvaez
Bader
Marte
Baty
Vientos
It’s going to be rough sledding.
@JackStrawb
What are you talking about? Best shape of whos life and what?
Bader hasn’t played in more than 103 games since 2019 a half decade ago. And he actually makes 34 y/o Starling Marte look more like Ripken. Kudos to Nimmo staying on the field the last 2 years (151 & 152/162).
I appreciate Stearns has raised the floor rather than try to raise the roof. Uncle Steve likes to raise the roof too much.
Brandon nimmo has played less than half a season in LF total over the past five years. 4-5 oaa over a season is good.
I’d go on, but if someone’s going to lead with a disingenuous argument their mind is already made up.
My comment was about their playing time, not their level of play, inc. a compliment to Nimmo for actually playing unlike many of the other thirtysomethings NYM’s been trotting out there.
Sorry, that wasn’t to you.
Commenting here still isn’t good.
I agree the defense should be better, and Alonso gets flack for his D, but his OAA last three years is slightly above average actually. 3b will be an issue. For OF, I think Gilbert will be up mid-year anyway and is a plus on D.
If healthy I actually like the lineup to be decent. No way allonso has a babip of 205 again, expecting a big year. Nimmo lindor mcneil solid… Looking for Alvarez to take a step forward. Should be an interesting year.
@RunDMC It’s a strategy that in the abstract would be designed to keep your bad players off the field; to keep your bad players from subtracting from the value your good players provide.
Problem? The Mets don’t have anything like enough good players for this strategy to work more than something like 5% of the time. They have only 5 returnees who added 2+ WAR in 2023. Say the Mets Big Five repeat in 2024 (unlikely, but say it happens) and they combine to kick in 20 WAR. Say the bullpen’s top 8 reaches projections and adds 2 WAR (all Diaz, really). Now you’ve got an offense of Alvarez, 3B, DH, Bader/Taylor, Stewart/Marte (remember, we’ve already added Lindor, Nimmo, Alonso, and McNeil from the Big Five), chipping in about 4 WAR (those players summed to 0 WAR in 2023, fwiw).
That leaves the starting pitching minus Senga (the last of the Big Five). It’s Quintana and a whole lot of ERA+ of 93. Call it another somewhat optimistic 5 WAR, for a total of 31 WAR, making it a 79-80 win team.
BUT, we haven’t included the inevitable negative contributors, who even on the best teams knock off at least 4 wins from the total. On a team like the Mets with a thin bench, a thin bullpen, with very modest SP talent behind the rotation’s front six, call it negative 7 WAR. (In 2023 the Mets negative contributors cost them 9.4 WAR.)
Knock those 7 wins off the 79-80 win projection and we’re down to a 72-73 win 2024 Mets team.
For the $60m in salaries they added for 2024 (plus $70m in penalties) they needed to add players who are actually good, but they added no players of that type. They could have added 3 AS-caliber players, but instead added none. In fact they added no solid MLB regulars.
In addition, it’s simply a poor way to roll the dice: The Mets already had plenty of starting pitching in the 90-100 ERA+ range, and they only added more pitching of that type. For the $32m they invested in starting pitching for 2024, they added no one who projects to get particularly close to league average when they already had Megill, Butto, Lucchesi, Peterson et al on hand to throw, let’s call them “weak but not horrible” innings.
Very strange.
Not strange at all, actually. Those “3 AS-caliber players” all would have required multi-year, high AAV contracts, thus precluding the Mets from resetting the luxury tax after next year, which is essential to the entire strategy of building a long-term winning club.
Ur looking at a 4th place team – I dont like what I see and dont like being lied to – I dont like Cohen
Bader is a quality player but he gets hurt a lot. I imagine Nimmo will see plenty of time in center in 2024.
Bader is a quality player with the glove and on the bases. His bat has always been lacking except in those brief few weeks after his trade to the Yankees. Like Billy Hamilton before him execs keep hoping his bat will come around. He is an exciting player to watch though. If he can finally figure it out with the bat he could be a very special player.
Bader was above average with the bat in 2018, 2020, and 2021.
An average defensive major league center fielder is still a pretty good defensive player.
With Marte and Bader’s combined injury histories, what’s the over/under on games with all 3 in the OF together?
About 180 plus the parade.
Oh yeah? Which team are they getting traded to at the deadline? Mets are not going far with that pitching staff in the NL East.
@Rob Schumann It’s impossible not to notice that after Senga the Mets rate to get about 15 starts from Quintana, then have nothing but guys who project to pitch in the 90-95 ERA+ range.
If they had a serious offense they could target 85 wins with an ace, a decent part-timer and a lot of 4.50-4.75 ERA guys and a replacement level bullpen plus a closer who might come back strong—but the offense is anything but serious.
Could Baty, Vientos, Marte, and Alvarez turn it around, even to the point of combining to be merely average, with Alvy getting his OPS+ up to 115 instead of the 95 he faded to in 2023? Sure, but if those are as good as 50-50 bets, the combined parlay is 1 in 16. If they’re 33-67 bets (against) the combined parlay falls to worse than 1 in 80.
It’s unlikely to be pretty, especially with a post-prime age nucleus that played in good luck last year in the overall.
Alright, now let’s remove delusions and try again.
Sure that’s a legitimate concern.
That’s why they need to have some quality depth in AAA (veterans and up and coming) AND/OR good judgement from a GM to pick up DFAs and make trades.
@YaGottaBelieveAgain And that’s what they’ve done…Tyrone Taylor on the bench can hit and field, and won’t hurt you as a starter. Trayce Thompson and Ben Gamel in AAA – neither can hit, but both are good defenders. by the time those two get used and DFA’d, Plan E can be another DFA pick-up, Tyler kohlway, or Drew Gilbert if they think he has progressed enough for his first call-up.
Nimmo gets $20 million a year (for 8 years) primarily due to CF defense.
Then moves to LF for a $10 million player.
Is this more Mets disorganization ?
SW
“Nimmo gets $20 million a year (for 8 years) primarily due to CF defense.”
The above is a faulty premise
Which leads you to a faulty conclusion
it’s more like reorganization as they’re just filling in the holes they need to
Nimmo’s CF defense rates as merely average these past two years, and defense was not the reason he was paid. He was only paid that because he was the only starting CF on the market, and the only starting OF under 30. The Mets were coming off of a 101-win season, and had to bring him back.
Bader is far and away the better defender. He is definitely in the argument as the best defensive CF in MLB. His bat and injury history have gotten him the one year deal.
I don’t think so. I think it’s an intelligent adaptation to circumstances.
You sign Nimmo at a $20m AAV thinking you’re going to contend for a WS ring during the heart of his 8 year deal.
Instead, you collapse, so you aim just to be decent in 2024 while you rebuild, winning enough games not to be a joke. You don’t even have much of an OF and the only guys who fit the budget are part-timers with good defense. If you sign them it moves Nimmo to LF, but the alternative is to cater to his ego, and go with less than your best defensive alignment by putting these stellar defenders in LF.
Good FO’s adjust year to year. I’m not all that sure Stearns is notably above average at heading a FO, but he adjusted—and he persuaded Cohen and Nimmo to adjust. That’s something.
All the best to being the Mets left gardener.
they should bring in brett gardner!
The fact that they don’t mention Jet Williams getting time in center is another point. The Baby Mets can play multiple positions and will be receiving innings everywhere.
@ bjhaas1977 Its not a point at all. They don’t mention Jett Williams because he isn’t a factor this year. Williams was still in low-A as of late July. Players do not jump from there to the majors in only a year. Yes, he reached AA. But only for 26 PAs at the very tail end of last season and he struck out in 10 of them. Right now, he’s a AA player who is just starting at AA. How fast he moves and when he arrives is very much a wait-and-see proposition at this point, and not a significant factor in the club’s 2024 season. You would’ve had a better chance mentioning Drew Gilbert in this context. And the fact that you went with Williams over Gilbert just speaks to an emotional, and not reasonable level of prospect admiration for Williams.
In other words… water is wet.
“Bader ranks fourth among all big league players, regardless of position, in Statcast’s Outs Above Average metric, dating back to the 2018 season.”
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Nothing could be less relevant in this context than Bader’s defensive in 2018.
There’s also nothing wrong with pairing Taylor and Bader in CF and seeing if you can’t squeeze 120 games out of them in CF. Both possess 28.8 fps sprint speed to Nimmo’s 28.0. You’ll probably save 3 runs over the course of the season if all goes well and IF Bader doesn’t get hurt more quickly in CF than he would in LF.
3 runs on a 79 win Mets team? Why not. Does it move the needle on the Mets chances of making the postseason by one-tenth’s of one percent compared to keeping Nimmo in CF? No. In any case, enjoy the season.
You know who can play centerfield… Pete Crow Armstrong.
grrr…. can w please stop re-opening that can of worms?!
That said, he still hasn’t hit, though.
Hey kolome, after reading the first half of these doom n gloom / the sky is fallin’ comments, out of nowhere you toss in the post of the day!
Mahalo for the belly laughs….
Shame that Nimmo has fallen from favor. He’ll be asking for a trade by the deadline. He’d crush it at Coors. Nimmo, Bryant back to back would cause pitchers to shutter.
While I agree that Bader is a plus defender, he presents two major problems. His offense is lacking and he has trouble staying healthy..The Mets will need to score alot of runs given the state of their starting pitching.
Well, yeah. And that’s why Tyrone Taylor is here. Also a good defender, but can also hit at around league average. But let’s not sugar coat this. The Mets are simply not going to be a good team this year. Most of these moves are stopgaps designed to make them not terrible.
Another concern about Bader is that his R/L splits are inconsistent from year to year. It would not surprise me if Taylor gets more playing time (400-500 PAs) sharing time with both Bader and Marte, in an attempt to improve on or maximize the offense, and also keep the starters healthy.
Great move. Next year CF will be occupied by Drew Gilbert. Maybe sooner if Bader gets hurt.
Look to the left of the field. It is there that you will be finding Nimmo
What’s up with teams paying folks the premium price for playing a premium position and then moving on from that. Padres did the same thing with SS with their last two big signings. Just seems odd. Nimmo’s contract is paying him like a CF. It’s not as attractive as a LF, although I still think he’s a great player and it’s not in the same lvl as what the padres are doing
So what should the Mets do if they lose Pete ? bring in that fat pig Glad or sign an older Goldschmidt ? what would you do if you were GM ?