The end of February is now less than a week away and Spring Training games have begun, yet plenty of significant free agents remain unsigned. As long as they linger on the open market, they will continue to be the subject of discussion. That’s particularly true of the “Boras Four,” which is formed by Blake Snell, Jordan Montgomery, Cody Bellinger and Matt Chapman, all of whom are represented by the Boras Corporation.
The Red Sox have been loosely tied to Montgomery throughout the offseason and that connection was addressed this morning by both Rod Bradford of WEEI and Sean McAdam of MassLive. Bradford reports that the club appears to prefer Montgomery to other available free agents but it is still waiting for the price to come down. McAdam frames it similarly, noting that the club has stayed in contact with Scott Boras “as a matter of course.” McAdam also suggests the Sox could fit Montgomery into their budget if his asking price drops, but he also points out that several other clubs would jump into the fray at that point. At any rate, it seems to be a moot point for now since McAdam relays that the asking price has not dropped.
The fit between the two sides is a sensible one in some ways. Montgomery’s wife is doing a residency at a Boston hospital and there would surely be some appeal to the convenience of working in the same city for much of the year. But beyond that, the club has been searching for starting pitching all winter and hasn’t really found it. They did sign Lucas Giolito but also traded away Chris Sale, leaving them roughly where they started. One might argue that Giolito is an upgrade on Sale but that substitution doesn’t address the overall depth.
The Red Sox have also been quieter than some other traditional big spenders. While clubs like the Yankees and Dodgers are well beyond the fourth and final luxury tax tier, the Sox aren’t even above the lowest threshold of $237MM. Boston’s competitive balance tax figure is at $202MM, per Roster Resource, which gives them plenty of room to theoretically make a big splash and still avoid the tax. Some other clubs like the Padres, Rangers, Mariners and Twins seem to be operating with diminished spending capacity this winter due to uncertainty in their TV revenue situations.
All that could perhaps put the Red Sox in a position to strike, but there are also reasons to suspect it won’t happen. The club’s president Sam Kennedy was recently present as Spring Training facilities and spoke to the media, with Christopher Smith of MassLive relaying some video. “We have set parameters for him,” Kennedy said in response to a question about whether chief baseball officer Craig Breslow has a hard budget. “He’s operating under those parameters.” He declined to elaborate with specifics.
All teams have budgets but there can sometimes be a point where opportunities push a club to alter their plans. Both the club and Boras appear to be holding their positions for now and time will tell whether one side blinks or if the staredown leads to Montgomery signing elsewhere.
It’s possible something will happen to get things moving, but the Sox might proceed into the season with their current rotation mix. Last month, Breslow said the rotation consists of Giolito, Brayan Bello, Kutter Crawford and Nick Pivetta. That would leave Garrett Whitlock, Tanner Houck and Josh Winckowski as options for the final spot.
Giolito has plenty of success in his career but his earned run average has finished just below 5.00 in each of the past two seasons. Bello and Crawford each have just over 200 major league innings under their belts. Pivetta’s 2023 finished strong but he was bumped to the bullpen for a time due to some shaky results. The latter three worked both as starters and relievers in their careers and are still trying to establish themselves as legitimate rotation options.
There’s plenty of uncertainty in that mix and an addition would make sense if the Sox are willing to add some money to the payroll. In addition to Snell and Montgomery, the free agent market still features Michael Lorenzen, Mike Clevinger, Rich Hill, Zack Greinke and others. In addition to the Sox, Montgomery has received reported interest from clubs like the Angels and Giants, with other clubs making logical sense. MLBTR predicted him for a six-year, $150MM deal coming into the winter but his continued stay in free agency suggests that he hasn’t had offers in that vicinity and the chances of him getting there will likely drop as time goes on.
Would rather have prime Randy Johnson.
He’s NOT coming to Boston unless he’s wearing another uniform. Take it to the bank.
Not sure what this last place team is waiting for
I really miss the days when the Red Sox gave a crap about winning
Signing albatross contracts is the best way to not win.
Right now these seem like albatross contracts.
Halo – SPOT ON!!!
Albatross contracts include
1 DEVERS – worst in Boston history by far and they have had some bad ones!!
2 STORY – complete waste of $140MM
3 YOSHIDA – complete waste of $90MM due to Devers
BAD CONTRACTS THAT HURT
1 GIOLITO – $38.5MM wasted in two years
2 JANSEN AND MARTIN – $47MM for two great relievers on a really crap team for two years. Completely unnecessary.
3 TURNER and SALE – $23.7MM wasted on guys NOT ON THE ROSTER.
Fiscal responsibility by the GM and Owners has been non existent for four years!!! Bad contracts, a dumpted superstar and all but one significant player from the 2018 team and dozens of dumpster dives.
I am worried about the seeming mindset of ownership these days, but whether it’s true or not that they care about winning that doesn’t amount to spending for the sake of spending. Save it for the right moves. Have you seen some “right moves” that were there for the franchise’s taking that they passed on this offseason?
The right moves how about the best player in baseball in any of are life times or idk how about when they had the 1b (Betts) best player in baseball and traded him for trash who are they saving this money for their golden prospect Mayer who’s falling down in the rankings fast
Who would argue that Giolito is an upgrade on Sale?
Given Sale’s injury history over the last half-decade, there’s probably an argument that a full season of mediocre Giolito is a safer bet than half a season or less of good-but-no-longer-elite Sale. There are also some people who would tell you that Giolito has the potential to regain ace form (I am not one of those people; I think his success dramatically diminished after sticky stuff crackdowns and is unlikely to ever be “elite” again).
In my mind, the pros and cons probably balance out and make it a wash, though I suppose I slightly prefer Giolito.
ability wise i would say sale is better but overall i would say giolito is better just because he has made more starts last year than sale has in the last few years combined
(i don’t the exact numbers but it sure does feel that way)
The best ability is availability
How good a pitcher is isn’t measured by how many games he plays. It’s how well he pitches and how many wins he helps his team get. Gio has great stuff and I know he’ll find his form again. Sale doesn’t have to find it. He’s always had it.
Sale had some troubles last year. He looked very bad at times.
lucky – Sale made an adjustment late in the season that led to a 1.13 ERA, .154 BAA and 19 K’s in 16 innings with just 4 walks.
How a pitcher ends a season is often a good indication of how he will pitch the following season.
Fever – great stats but my ONLY counter argument is that he still has Cora and he messes with his head and mechanics so Sale has gone to a better place!!! Which is anywhere Cora is not.
Giolito is a great batting practice pitcher, but can’t one of their coaches do that?
Giolito has innings in his favor over Sale. Sale has skill over Giolito and it’s not close. Sale has been mishandled by Cora and it impacted his performance greatly. In ATL, I expect the old Sale back since the issues with Cora have gone away. What is hard to predict is whether Giolito will have issues with Cora as well. Cora ruined Price, he ruined Sale, he nearly destroyed Eovaldi with his spring training screw-up in 2019. IF Giolito can deal with him he’s got a 50/50 chance of being a decent SP2 but he’ll be facing SP1 which will significantly limit his success in 2024.
If there was no Cora, I’d take Sale in a heart beat. With Cora, I’d take Giolito but I don’t see him having huge success with Cora. Cora needs to go and full control of the pitching needs to be given to a qualified person. That hasn’t been true during the CORA era.
TF – I’m holding out hope that between Bailey and Breslow the pitching staff will perform closer to their capabilities.
Cora will likely be overruled, especially with him being a lame duck.
@Fever, how long of a leash do you think Cora has?? If the team is in last place and 10 games back on Memorial Day, would that be enough for his dismissal?? Or do you think , no matter what, you guys are stuck with him all year???
Fever – Would love to see what you suggest but little weasel will pop out of his hole and disrupt things mid game. I guarantee it.
Ignorant – I’ve sent Breslow instructions on how to convert a simple rope to a noose. Hope he uses it.
Ignorant – I think Cora has the entire season, they will just let his contract run out.
For one, the Sox don’t have a history of firing managers midseason. Last time was Jimy getting replaced by Kerrigan in 2001., so this ownership has NEVER fired midseason … not even Valentine.
Second, you typically fire midseason when you have reason to believe you can contend for the postseason. That’s not the case here. If they overachieve, no reason to fire Cora midseason. If they underachieve, there would be no benefit in firing midseason.
The one possible situation that could cause a midseason firing, if they wanted Tek to get his feet wet and see how he does as a manager.
Long Suffering: As much as I love Gio, there’s no question that Sale is the better pitcher.
I would argue that, for the red sox specifically, giolito is a better fit than sale.
I’ve posted it every time he comes up that I discuss him, but, it’s still the answer to your question:
1) giolito hasn’t had a QO yet. If he’s GREAT this year you get a choice at the deadline: keep him if somehow all the chips fell.riggt and you have a shot at the post season; float him for a good return at the deadline; discuss an extension that removes his opt out; or, keep him and tag him with a QO after he opts out.
2) he’s less than prime, but, injury history and mechanics suggest a very limited injury profile. Maybe his fly ball issue rears it’s head, but, his era is inflated by something other than the bad infield defense. You get a workhorse that keeps the bullpen from being as taxed, which, allows other starters to be lifted earlier as needed because the pen is fresh. Also the pen suffers less dead arms as the season goes on because the most 6+ or 7ip starts he has the less innings the pen has to eat. He doesn’t opt out, and you get to repeat this same set of outcomes next year.
GASox – I agree, if the goal is to simply get through yet another “bridge year” then Gio would help give innings and his ERA wouldn’t matter.
I wanted to keep Sale when I believed ownership wanted to win this year. Since they don’t, no sense in hanging onto Sale.
I would argue that Giolito would make more starts than Sale, but the performance in those starts would not compare to a Sale performance
I’m actually pretty confident that Montgomery is going to end up in Boston. Remember back in ’21-’22 when we spent the whole offseason panicking that they hadn’t signed a second baseman? That Story contract was announced on March 20, for less money and fewer years than some outlets had predicted. Stuff like this happens all the time, and if I was Montgomery, I’d be more optimistic about taking a slightly cheaper deal in Boston than I would be about taking it with the Angels or the Giants. Even with the current (and probably deserved) reputation of the Sox front office as stingy, they’re more likely to be a perennial contender than either of those other teams.
Of course, maybe all of that should be sobering for fellow Sox fans. We all know how the Story deal worked out…
thecroc – Giants or Texas. He’d be an idiot to come to Boston with Cora as the manger and Devers as the 3B.
Texas is deep and they expect their pitching costs to lower in the future thanks to a stacked farm system I wouldn’t be shocked if a shorter termed deal comes up with Texas despite Monty probably wanting a longer deal.
If it’s Texas for 2 years of Boston for 5. I’d take the 2 and enjoy receiving a ring or two in that time period. In Boston, with Monty, it’s still no playoffs. They need TWO SPs to get to the playoffs.
Tf…So yer saying youd think poorly of montgomery if he signed with your favorite team?..i get your point ..you dont like devers defense ..you hate cora..and the current team is not playoff worthy..but please realize he’d only be an “idiot” if he signed in boston short term since devers may not play 3b that much longer..cora will not be back in 2025 and this team will improve…so long term hes making a solid life decision
Pool – I loved the move by Young to pick him up last year. He did well because he had a GREAT coaching staff. Far better than the new one under Breslow.
If he goes to Boston, he has to deal with a losing team, a terrible defense led by Devers, a miserable manager who is clueless to how to manage pitchers, a new coaching staff that wasn’t selected by the manager so may have issues getting along and a new GM who hasn’t worked very hard upgrading the talent. So no more rings in his future in Boston and chaos in the front office and ownership. I wouldn’t wish that on many people.
The current team COULD BE playoff worthy if they spent the necessary money to upgrade their pitching and 3B. I really like the young kids. I don’t think Gio or O’Neill add much value but my hope was that we’d see Anthony in LF, Duran in CF and Rafeala in RF or SS with Abreu in RF.
Dump Yoshida and Story once the season starts and injuries happen around the league. It would help a lot if both Story and Yoshida started quickly in 2024 but that seems like a huge long shot.
Money to get 2 SPs for 5 years should cost $50MM to $60MM per year and without Yoshida that is $32MM to $40MM which is under the cap. Had we not wasted so much on Giolito, O’Neill and Grissom we would not be near the cap until we upgraded 3B unless we use internal players to plug the hole temporarily.
Based on the actions of ownership since they fired DD I don’t consider Boston a STABLE place to land as a player. Great history but total chaos has occurred for over four years. Job security is bad. HR hiring decisions have been terrible. If I was Monty, I’d choose a short term deal with Texas and hope to work with Chris Young on being move to a contender when he needs to make room for more young pitchers.
The Cora issue does not seem to have an ending despite his contract. The Devers disaster has no ending in sight despite it devastating the pitchers for 7 years now. If I were Monty and my choice was Boston and multiple other teams I would put Boston at the bottom of the list and it kills me to write that since it didn’t have to be this way. We were on top of the world at the end of 2018.
Tf..thats fine to live in the past and complain about that if it helps you deal with the current state of the team. but you replied to me and totally ignored what i wrote about your argumemts only being valid short term..ie 2024 aside from devers..he may be at 3b longer and did not answer the simple question i asked. ..are you saying this man would be an ” idiot” to sign with your favorite team? Yes or no?
Pool – I apologize if I misread your statement and avoided answering your single question.
Here is my not so simple answer.
1 – Given the state of the Red Sox he would be an idiot
2 – Given his alternatives he would be an idiot
3 – Cashing in on the biggest money is a logical but bad choice if it’s Boston.
4 – Until the rain storm over Boston goes away nobody should sign in Boston.
THE RAINSTORM –
1 – Inconsistent performance by ownership
2 – Cora as manager
3 – Two consecutive under qualified GMs
4 – The worst 3B in history playing 3B
If Texas was in the mix, I’d think that would be a no-brainer for Montgomery. But they’ve been even more vocal than the Sox have about not having room in their budget for further additions, so I don’t think that’s likely to happen.
Also, I agree with you that even with Montgomery the Sox are unlikely to make the postseason, let alone go deep into it.
TF – Zero chance Monty signs with the Rangers, they’ve said all winter they are maxed out on payroll.
I think he winds up with Giants, Phillies or Yankees.
But yeah, I have a glimmer of hope John Henry will look at updated advance ticket sales and approve signing Monty.
Fever – Local interviews suggest there is room but Monty wants too many years and they have up and coming young pitchers they want to make room for. I think a one or two year deal could be done because Scherzer and deGrom are not locks to be back healthy.
If I was Monty, I would do a 1 year with a 1 year option and work with Chris Young to be moved to a long term contract with another team when the Rangers can back fill a ptiching injury on another team or a deal at the trade deadline.
TF – Monty’s value is at it’s peak and will never be this high again, so a short term deal wouldn’t make sense. I highly doubt he’s gonna have a sub-3 ERA again like he did with the Rangers.
Fever – He can’t be paid on a one year performance. His logical pay is around $25MM for the next several years. He’s good but not great.
We don’t want to pay Montgomery but we want him. We don’t need to extend Bello but we should to make him a better more motivated pitcher on a bad ball club. SMH Boston. There’s good reason why nobody wanted this gm job.
Just another nothing burger post.
As they stated it “it’s a moot point “
Again, there is no update.
You have the Twins, Angels, Blue Jays, Rangers, Red Sox and a few others that have had owners and GMs blatantly state that they’re not looking to add anymore big free agents. I’m waiting for Boras to start crying and moaning how all the MLB teams are colluding against him and his clients.
He’s has a better shot arguing the CBT is anti-competitive preventing teams from signing them.
Oh that’s coming too. The man is going to complain soon enough.
Boras can complain, but the CBT was negotiated by the union. What Boras needs to do is better evaluate the market. And maybe not take the winter off.
@acoss, so when this crying you re waiting for happens over the 4 unsigned players, do you think he ll mention the roughly 170 MLB players he represents currently under contract??
Tigers3232,
Boras is a salesman, if it can get his clients signed, I really wouldn’t put it past him. His job is to get all his clients signed, but when he has four top free agents still on the market with Spring Training underway, all avenues can and will be explored. You can take that as a positive or negative, depends on your opinion.
Boras Corporation clients often go late into offseason early into Spring Training prior to signing. And these 4 in particular I kind of unique as there’s definitely some question marks on all.
I think if all 4 go into the season without signing, or even just two of them, Boras will start trying the collision route. I agree though, all four have questions surrounding them.
Absolutely right, Tigers3232.
If his asking price has not come down, how Bout the years involved
Say a two year deal
as years come down price per year goes up
lvd – I doubt he would accept fewer years, his value right now has never been higher and probably never will be.
What if they’re not worth that higher asking price?
I’m not getting my hopes up. I hope Red Sox Nation boycotts until the direction changes. This has been the most disappointing off-season they’ve had in my lifetime.
I would sooner boycott dumb big moves for the sake of big moves than this (though this is certainly uninspiring). I remember overpaying Lackey coming off of a good box score (but not in terms of his actual pitching) playoff game. I remember signing Crawford not because he fit (it was one of the worst-fitting signings between a team’s needs and what a player offers in MLB history) but because it represented a splash that the team had room to make. I remember adding Sandoval because the team felt the need to fill a hole at 3B and he was the best option (but, again, one with warts). And I remember taking on Story because if you squinted you could see how that might work out.
No thanks on any more of those. If the only notable options for the taking are bad overpays or overly imperfect fits, hold the money and look for something better. Maybe the owners simply want to draw in greater profits and so won’t even allow some decent-idea buys, but that’s not worse than bad buys.
If you are not willing to take chances on contracts then you minimize the odds of success. BTW, you won a WS with Lackey and won 2 more one year after jettisoning Crawford and then Panda. In a vacuum they were not great contracts but the big picture was success.
The big picture was success, which was achieved by jettisoning the bad signings? So signing bad contracts held the team back? Isn’t that what 571 is saying?
Excellent point, Stud! And teams can afford to make such mistakes.
When lackey got healthy he was great, and, his contract had him pitch a whole year at league minimum. The fact cherington traded that away is not the fault of the player, but, StL was VERY happy with what they got.
I remember signing Crawford not because he fit (it was one of the worst-fitting signings between a team’s needs and what a player offers in MLB history)
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I remember many RS fans were giddy with excitement getting Crawford & Gonzo. And all I thought was that we’d have been better off with Josh Willingham and Gonzo’s teammate Headley, both at far cheaper prices.
But a whole lot of RS fans have shiny object syndrome.
Joe – Wow you’re bashing your idol Theo, never thought I’d see the day.
You bashing Sox fans I always expect though.
That’s because he’s a yankees fan in a Sox uni, Fever.
Joe – Wow you’re bashing your idol Theo, never thought I’d see the day.
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LOL! You won’t understand this, but I give credit when credit is due, and blame when blame is due. Unlike you, I don’t believe that people are 100% correct or 100% wrong.
You bashing Sox fans I always expect though.
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Again, I don’t expect you to understand it, but some RS fans are complete idiots.
Orioles should offer 4 years and 80 Million and see if it’s accepted. If they would sign him they would be clear favorite to repeat as AL East champs and one of biggest favorites to win American League
If he were willing to sign for 4/80, he’d be signed.
gcg27 – Monty is probably looking for $25MM minimum per year for 5 or 6 years. The Rangers would have signed him by now if he would do a 2 year deal but it appears he wants longer.
SF needs him the most and should extend him to 5 or 6 years. They need him.
I was leaning toward the Mets as Jordan Montgomery’s likely destination this offseason, even more so after the recent shoulder ailment news regarding staff ace Kodai Senga.
Now I’m thinking the Red Sox might have the inside track, especially if Montgomery settles for a shorter term deal or one with player options. The revelation that Montgomery’s wife is doing a residency at a Boston hospital makes this scenario more plausible.
Asap – It’s not a revelation, it’s been discussed for months now.
And I’m not sure how much it would be a benefit for Monty. Sadly, lots of players have their Margo Adams during the season. Wade Boggs and Charlie Goodson certainly did.
Ha ha you’re the first person I’ve seen speculate that perhaps the player doesn’t see having his wife around all the time as a win. Good take
Bob – I’ve worked with a few guys that do everything they can to avoid their wives. Some guys working long hours in the office, others refusing to work remote because their wives were.
I just don’t think we can assume every player wants to see their wife all the time during the season. Perhaps call it Al Bundy Syndrome.
A mets team that said they weren’t overly concerned with contending this year lost thier best pitcher and that’s going to make them more likely to spend money? Seems like the exact opposite
And they would still be under 125 million payroll even if they sign him. Time to step up. Windows close fast
With Yankees in tax bracket of 110 percent and Texas maxed on spending especially with tv deal in flux it’s perfect time for Orioles to go all out especially with Burnes contract only for this year and Braddish and Means on the shelf
gcg – Means is back APR 15th.and Bradish is completely uncertain.
Texas wants a short contract with Monty, they have the money for 2024 but they have lots of young pitchers who will lower payroll in the future so a shorter contract is being sought from Monty.
If I were him, I’d go short and a chance at another ring over Boston or SF.
Just bring back Rich Hill for a 4th tour of duty in Boston and be done with it already
Imagine paying 150 M for this 31 y/o 4th starter who can’t miss bats and isn’t durable. Yikes
One of smell or Montgomery needs to sign to get the other to sign.
Just sign Bauer for 5m. Thank me later.
Yeah because he will be the final solution. Thank me later.
Perhaps not, but each of the pitchers behind him will perfect their spin rates and likely add more pitches to their arsenal.
Opinions may differ but Bauers a great pitcher still. That said, I think he has more to offer other pitchers than any traditional pitching coach.
Looking at FG, seems most of Boston’s top prospects are position players so they 100% need to look for rotation pieces. Montgomery would certainly help but they’re going to need more.
For the sake of fairness, I hope they all are forced to settle for less than their ridiculous aspirations.
MLB really needs to fix their broken free agency system. There’s a reason why it’s such a big hit in the NFL and such a dud in baseball. When you have the top free agents (except Ohtani) still unsigned and preseason has started, that’s a problem. MLB needs to incentivize teams to sign players early in the off-season and create a frenzy that fans will respond to. The current status quo is just awful, and one of the biggest culprits is Boras. Montgomery is supposed to be an ace, but whoever signs him, even if they sign him today, wouldn’t be able to start him opening day because he will be behind all the other pitchers in terms of conditioning. Fix it, Manfred.
@Cooadoj, Not that I completely agree with the sentiment, but is it all on Boras? IMonty or any player can go his agent and say, “whatever the best offer is, take it”
Boras can only ay his games because his clients let him.
I said Boras is one of the biggest culprits. I didn’t say he was the only culprit. But Boras intentionally drags negotiations into the start of the season for his biggest clients. That is a big problem, considering how long it takes for pitchers especially to ramp up to be ready for the start of the season. And there is no buzz or excitement for the fans, which is also a problem. MLB needs to take a hard look at how the NFL does things and start making some adjustments.
The reason that there is no free agent deadline is that the MLB Players Association won’t agree to it.
I would have to disagree on a Free Agent signing period. I don’t believe it’s good to rush anybody in trying to make a decision of that nature. What if players feel like they have to take the first offer? I could only see it hurting the player, rushing into something. And this slow period isn’t so bad. A signing can come down at any time. It’s called random gratification…you could log in at any time and possibly see a signing. But with a signing period, you would have huge gulfs of time where there is absolutely zero news. That’s way more boring than when anything can happen at any time. And to your point about pitchers not being ready, these guys hire coaches or are doing the work on their own at a high school mound or whatever. They are getting in shape and throwing, they don’t want to be behind.
Spot on, you ignorant son of a b. The way FA works now keeps fans engaged right up until ST. What the hell would we do for four months with a FA period that lasted a few weeks?
If Boston signs Montgomery why stop there? They could use another RH Outfield bat. Boston is only a last place team in a loaded division. They’re not that far from being a Wild Card contender if they get a pitcher.
its happening – Clearly you don’t like the young players. WOW. An OF bat? After we already got O”Neill? What .220 slugger do you want so we can say we have a power hitting right fielder?
To have a shot at the playoffs they need Devers at DH. Without that, none of the needed changes including his replacement will make a difference. This is an exceptionally bad pitching staff until two top end SPs are acquired. This team is a 65 win team as of today. It could make the playoffs with a new SP1 SP2 3B and lefty late inning reliever but that’s not likely to happen. Devers at 3B means no playoffs.
Troll free clearly you don’t see the makeup of the squad because at this time O’Neill is starting in LF.
That leaves Duran and some youngster named Wilyer Abreu in RF, both LH bats. What, a RH bat is somehow controversial to you? If you want Devers to DH that puts Yoshida (another LH bat) back in the OF. Which also means it would be YOU that dislikes the youngsters.
At this point Rafaela is going to be given every chance to win the every day job in center according to Cora. Abreu is ticketed for right field. There is no chance the out Duran in right. If Duran is healthy then he’s your starting left fielder assuming that Yoshida is the DH. O’Neil is going to play all three outfield positions and he will play a lot. We already know Cora likes to rest guys for no reason. The real odd man out is Refsnyder just don’t see a ton of at bats for him assuming both Rafaela and Abreu make the 26 man.
Bruin – Sorry you’re totally wrong on O’Neill. It’s been reported by multiple outlets that he is expected to be the fulltime LF. And he has virtually no experience playing CF or RF.
I think the logical approach would be to have Rafaela play the role of Kike, have him bounce between OF and IF. Duran will remain the CF unless they trade him.
Fever it’s possible but I think what happens with Rafaela determines who plays the majority time in left field. If Rafaela makes the big club out of spring training he starts in center Cora has already made that clear. That would move Duran to left and Abreu in right against righties. If Rafaela doesn’t make the big cluband starts in AAA then Duran starts in center and O’Neil starts in left. I think it comes down to Rafaela if he makes the 26 man he’s the centerfielder.
Bruin1012 – Cora is an idiot and NEVER makes things clear.
Rafaela is the Right Fielder as I have explained 100 times after you have dispersed your bad information.
Abreu is odd man out if they go by talent IF O’Neill can perform like years ago. Otherwise, O’Neill should be odd man out.
Taking off one of your two speedsters is a very short sighted move and Cora could do that because he is a known idiot.
Not putting Rafaela in the most challenging outfield position of Right Field is incredibly stupid so once again the odds of Cora doing it are high.
Who starts, who makes the roster and who plays 3B does not matter if Breslow can’t do his job more effectively.
They are all moot points.
You’re wrong as usual Rafaela is the Center Fielder period end of story if he makes the 26 man. Abreu plays right field the reason he played left mostly in Polar Park is because the big field is in left that’s where they wanted his arm but you apparently don’t know this probably never watched a game in Polar Park. I’m sorry I know legend in your own mind but even in Fenway center field is where the outfield field general plays.
Troll just because you explained it 100 times doesn’t mean it’s true. It’s just your opinion and I think (know) your opinion is wrong when it comes to Rafaela. He’s a centerfielder and a potential gold glove level defender in center. Yes it’s true Right Field in Fenway is probably the toughest right field defensively in baseball but you still have your perceived best defender in center because even in Fenway the most green to cover is in center. You trying to make Rafaela as the next Mookie has to be the only reason to throw him into right field. Mookie could of played center in fact he played far more center in the minors when he was transitioned to the outfield and would of been a centerfielder if they didn’t already have a potential gold glove centerfielder in JBJ. The Red Sox don’t have a defensive centerfielder even in the same breath at Rafaela therefore Rafaela plays center. You can spin it all you want but those are the facts and the reason that anyone who has clue and any manager would put Rafaela in center.
TrollFree, I think realistically, you’re going to have to live with Devers at 3B and Yoshida at DH. I know this may sound preposterous, but with a healthy Story playing SS the whole year, this could help stabilize Devers and his defense in a way. If those two can click, I think it can only help. Maybe having so many different SS’s out there caused Devers to do too much or in some way affected his defense for the worse. Just trying to find a silver lining here lol.
Ignorant – I’ll go with preposterous. Devers sucked on defense at age 16 if you look at his fielding at the Dominican Baseball Academy. He sucked all through the minors and he actually got worse when he arrived in the majors prematurely. It’s been a decade of stink. To suggest anything will change that is absurd or the definition of insanity.
As a young child, Devers’ parents rolled him a ball and it went right through his legs and his legend was established.
Although the Boras-4 would bring excitement and increase the teams odds of winning. What are the chances that any of these players don’t live up to the extra years that they want at back end of their contract?
Good..but that can be said for any mlb contract beyond 3 years
This time of season the benefits of a short term deal are diminishing. ST games have started. Any pitcher not signed at this point will most likely not be ready for start of the season.
Sox blew the window to compete this year, most likely end in last place. Just stick with the kids and let them play the full year. Let’s see what they can show for years to follow.
What makes you think they won’t be ready? They can work out on their own, hire coaches, or borrow the mound at the local high school. They have been thru the routine before, know their bodies, and so would know precisely what they need to do for themselves to be ready.
Please sign this guy…will instantly infuse some life in the team and offseason even if his addition alone would be meh for the most part aside from being a nice rotation piece locked in beyond 2024 when they “plan” to compete
If the O’s want to add a starter, they will make a push for Montgomery at the right time/price. I’d be shocked if they bring in Bauer and all of his baggage into a young clubhouse.
Have to agree about Bauer, however much he could teach them youngsters.
Montgomery would make for a good middle reliever/swingman on the Dodgers. They might as well step up and sign him since everyone else is clipping coupons and waiting for double coupon day.
Or key rotation piece when one of glasnow,bhueler or Kershaw (ohtani is already out)end up on the IL based on all thier career track records..its amazing how much faith dodger fans have in that rotation based on thier collective history..or..lackthereof of health
Lol not even the dodgers are paying that kind of money for a swingman reliever/spot starter role.
Dodgers need Snell and Montgomery. They could just defer most of the contracts.
Montgomery is not a reliever. He would choose his next contract for a team where he could be the #2 or #3 starting pitcher in that team’s rotation. Why would he settle for anything less, much less become a reliever…makes zero sense.
Hey Monty, do you want to play baseball this year?
Clevinger would be a nice addition to the Red Sox
The Sox will need to add an ace if they want to get back into contention in the AL East. It bodes well for the ultimate success of Craig Breslow that he is holding to his position and not succumbing to Boras. Montgomery is a good pitcher and would surely help the Red Sox, but he’s no ace.
So all of the unsigned guys don’t get to play this year now that the season started? Is that how it works? I’m new to this.
Actually they hold out until June and still get top dollar.
Don’t think Giolito is an upgrade on Sale.
Nope.
Well, one pitches.
One doesn’t.
Probably why they’re getting that
Full Throttle!
Hahaha.
Bring out the duckboats.
Hahaha.
Full Throttle!
Hahahaha
Behind Snell and Montgomery, no mention of the best available starting pitcher, he being Trevor Bauer.
Wish MLBTR writers had the courage to admit as much.
Don’t forget about the best young up and comer Wander “16 candles” Franco.
The fans are pissed off enough at the Red Sox, you think they want even more grief?? Signing Bauer would be them shooting themselves in the foot, five times.
I understand your take, ignorant sob, but I thoroughly disagree.
I think us Sox fans can judge the merits of Bauers case (that was dismissed after accuser admitted making it up).
Ownership just isn’t willing to spend this year we have known this for a while they’re just now coming out and confirming. I guess if his price drops low enough they will green light the expenditure but if Boras and Monty are holding out for top dollar then he he’s not coming to Boston.
The Red Sox aren’t going to add anyone but prospects maybe ready for the big club. They’ll look to dump any veteran they feel is replaceable. I hope Henry sells and soon. His little group took on way more than they could swallow and the pandemic crushed them more than they’ll ever say out loud.
When the Pirates are outspending you, there’s something very deep and dark going on.
Some People said to fired Alex Cora I believe he isn’t the problem his record as manager on 6 years is: W438 vs L367 any of you remember this 2 season
2018 = W108 L54 with a Good Team (franchise-best)
2021= W92 L70 on his return and we make the playoffs, everybody talk great about him
Last 2 season same record W78 L84 with all the limitations of this ownership well we know now, let’s be honest I think this Team will make him manager of the year nobody will bet on this guys and that will be enough to prove everybody wrong and show how Good he could be and that will open the door upstairs with ownership that’s why they don’t talk about extending the contract, so for that reason I believe he is the perfect man for this job and for us as Fans. BTW this team will surprise you, copy this and repaste it on Oct
You’re trolling right? Is this part of your new comedy routine?? I would say it needs some work.
NE – Small tidbit about winning. It comes from talent NOT THE MANAGER.
The Red Sox should have won 120 games in 2018 but Cora was directly responsible for losing 12 games by making bad decisions on who rested that day and who pitched.
CORA IS THE WORST MANAGER OF ALL TIME. Why? Because he’s a convicted cheater and actually committed the crime against baseball multiple times. He has no integrity and he is an embarrassment to all former players.
Winnign 30 games would surprise me but the odds of a surprise is very unlikely. If you can smell the stench, usually you know something stinks!!! Thus, no surprises.
Is the BoSox biggest problem today its corporate multi-pronged sports ownership — they made Liverpool a multiple champion in footie, they won multiple World Series with their micro ballpark in Boston, they compete weekly for most of the year in various racing endeavours with multiple teams across NASCAR, and build engines for others. So the challenge is when do they go all-in with any one endeavour and what is the incremental benefit to Fenway corporate to win a few more baseball games vs the cost? Will $20 million spent on a pitcher be worth more than $20 million spent on top soccer players or racing engine builders? Does baseball suffer because of its cost structure?
This challenge is often used to blast corporate ownership in sports. The Dodgers have had a rag-tag ownership history since the O’Malley’s and despite being treated as the Tiffany of baseball clubs have won only one WS since the 1980s. How much is ownership turmoil and turnover to blame and how much will that continue as paying the Ohtani piper nears in next decade? ‘Win now’ will become a heavier burden every time they don’t. Races have to be run, but race teams, especially when they build engines for dozens of others, can be very profitable even when you don’t win. Liverpool has won it all in past decade, how much more profit can be derived from doing it again. Or do you sell high? And when you own half of NESN and profit with every bodycheck by the Bruins and home run by the Sox what’s the incentive to dump those hard-earned bucks back into baseball — when your little park is always full anyway.
Toronto Blue Jays owners are also corporate and also own a major TV sports network (and radio network, and cable and cell networks), and also co-own Toronto’s NHL team, their NBA team, their football and soccer teams, and their playing venues. Fans say they don’t invest enough in baseball but are at record levels and close to being taxed (and they’ve just upgraded their fully-owned dome in Toronto and their training mecca in Florida). But all of the Toronto ownerships endeavours are in a North American sports world they broadcast, cablecast or stream. So an integrated revenue stream. It’s a corporation, but controlled by a family, and ultimately one man — Ed Rogers. Whereas Fenway has multiple big name owners, including one who puts his neck on the NASCAR line weekly.
Thoughts?
Pinkston- the problem is simplified:
Henry has been bringing in investment groups who aren’t interested in the ‘prestige’ because they own a tiny fractional interest – they’re interested in ROI, dividend payouts on their shares in the conglomerate. That’s proven by the presence of sports venture capital firms like Redbird, arctos, etc.
The fact Henry is not done trying to add new sports to the crown of his conglomerate means he needs to keep those investors happy. If they’re unhappy, word gets out. And if the ROI doesn’t remain high, and proven, it’s a less attractive investment vehicle for others in the future, and THAT would impact funding raises for a NBA or NFL franchise, among others.
Meanwhile, he is trying to make sure he piggybanks enough cash for himself so that as he adds these new ventures he can push more of his own money in each time so his own shares in FSG don’t become too diluted, and, subject to being kicked to minority owner status.
These are all reasons the cash payouts to fsg shareholders need to be maintained at a high level
If Boston is going to sign a remaining big name I would hope it would be 28 year old Bellinger. Him and Dever hitting back to back for the next 6 years would be fun.
If you really want to guarantee Bellinger 6 years after one good season out of like 4
Down – It’s not a crime to be a Bellinger fan but it should be!!!
We had Verdugo we don’t need Bellinger.. Lesson learned.
“It seems to be a moot point for now as the asking price has not dropped.” The real moot point is that the asking price has not dropped because if he were going to get it he’d have gotten it by now.
Fans: SPEND!!
Breslow: On who?
Fans: We don’t care, just SPEND!!!!!
pz: A+ man, I agree. The Red Sox hot stove could have been worse, there could have been bad costly signings like in recent years – e.g. Devers bloated albatross.
baseballteam – I consider Devers, Story and Yoshida as albatross contracts due to the number of years but the recent Giolito and O’Neill contracts are not just bad but they reduced available payroll to get what we actually needed. Toss in the $17MM for Grissom and waste is a constant with the GMs in Boston lately.
As a baseball fan, I am sick of Scott Bore-my-Ass. What used to be a fun time, the hot stove, is now a total non-event. There should be a rule if a FA is not signed by February 1, they are not eligible until July 1, maybe there would be some action again.
It will never happen because the greed involved is immense.
I think Judge getting traded has a higher chance of happening than Montgomery going to the Sox.
Bauer, Urias and Clevinger are all out there and are probably cheaper than you think. Bauer and Urias have no legal issues anymore.
Goose – POST OF THE DAY!!!!!
We have Cora so Bauer and Urias are minor issues in comparison.
Those two would put the Red Sox in the hunt for the playoffs but Devers would still need to move to DH before they would have a legitimate chance.
Goose, it’s not about their legal issues it’s about their character issues.
GRNMTNYETI = Can’t argue character issues and have Cora as the manager. Character means nothing to these owners or the front office.
I wholeheartedly agree, troll. cora has no character and should be banned for life for his major role in the worst cheating scandal in the history of the game.
Whomever gives Montgomery a 5-6 year deal around $30 million a year will regret it completely
Montgomery is not worth projected contract levels. 10 game winner with 3 good months. Can he help?…sure… but not at these prices. He’s at best a #2 and more likely a #3.
butch – His spot in the rotation is always subject to the others on the staff. If Sale and Price were here like in the old days he’s clearly a #3 but if you have Giolito and Bello, he’s a #1.
He’s an above league average pitcher. He’s a #2 at best in my eyes as we seek top of the rotation help. Bello is a fine #3 and Gio can work as a #4 or #5 (pretty expensive at $20MM a year.
They need a lefty so he’s a solid #2 for Boston at $22MM to $25MM per year for 5 years. I still think he would be crazy to join the chaos that is the Boston Red Sox.
I just took a look at the schedule and it shapes up very similar to last year.
In 2019 Cora’s Spring Training pitching screw-up combined with the opening of the year out west buried the team by mid April. That could happen again in 2024. Four games in Seattle to start the year with their pitching should be a huge challenge for the weak rostered Red Sox.
The good news is April is filled with bad and mediocre teams so they might no be devastated by May 1. BUT, once May starts, stick a fork in them. and they don’t even get the Yankees by then. May is filled with 7 games vs TB, 3 games wtih BAL and 2 with ATL. The others aren’t terribly tough but a winning record is likely to happen in April. The other months, forget about it. June will be a disaster. July won’t be terrible because the all-star game reduces the number of games and many are against weak teams. August and September will be ugly.
Without pitching, I can’t see this team beating 65 wins. Adding one starter won’t get them to 81. Two starters, however, will get them to the high 80s and Devers at DH could get them to the mid 90s. It’s all on Breslow.
Chewing the fat here, nothing new!
At some point the players tell Boras I want to sign, I’m not missing camp and this whole thing gets ushered along.
Missing camp has very little to do with a player looking to sign for $$ Multi Millions and multi year contracts…..once they do sign, they’re making money…..do you really think that missing Spring starts means anything with money and years at stake…..don’t think so….if his first start is in May or even June Monty or Snell doesn’t really care…..
How many millions less will Montgomery take to pitch in Boston during his wife’s residency? The fact that he’s still a free agent and Boras is his agent indicates he’s going for the most money. Residents work ridiculous hours. He’s barely going to see her as is. She selected her residency not knowing where he was going to be pitching.
The team that gets him will be the team that pays the most.
Lord – I don’t think the residency makes a bit of difference since the players are home so little and when they are she’s likely working. Anywhere in the NorthEast is probably better than the West Coast but I really don’t think that’s a big factor in his decision.
Monty is going to want a winning team, a clearly defined role, good pitching coaches and an organization that treats it’s players well.
That’s not Boston.
Boras will need to build a Spring Training Complex for his unsigned FA’s soon.
2 words:
Trevor Bauer.
I’m interested in others’ thoughts on whether the Boras batch and other unsigned FAs are losing value now that they ‘ve missed some Spring Training and will likely miss more.
How many season starts, if any, will pitchers and hitters miss?
Has anyone read about or heard of their non-ST home base training regimes?
If they haven’t lost value by now, when will they start losing value?
Any grumblings about agents?
Sign already
The BoSox haven’t built up their core enough to optimize free agency.
I really like Montgomery as a sp but he and Boras need to be realistic about his value. All his numbers last three years, which are solid, are in line w Bassitt, Stroman, Eovaldi. So the 6/150+ he’s looking for prob wont happen. 5/100-110? Maybe someone will go there
Oakland should sign them 1 year cheap. Get them in shape, trade them at deadline for those in need during stretch run. Rebuild their whole farm system. Of course even cheap, Oakland couldn’t afford a half year salary for one or each of them.
Bauer and Monty.
FYI for those that didn’t follow this story over the two years. He was not charged, so not found guilty either. During court proceedings over damages, it was eventually revealed that the accuser preplanned the entire incident for financial gain, even confiding in others she would do it, and video surfaced of her unharmed on that day while with Bauer, only to have the injuries after leaving. Her accusation fell apart, and the matter was dropped entirely with nearly no coverage from our media while he was banished to Japan.
This was the major incident that caused his suspension, and black balling by MLB. He is a handful, but he is talented, and the reason that nearly everyone gives for calling him a monster is nonexistent. I see a lot of misinformed people still claim HE DID WHAT HE DID NOT DO. This guy’s career was completely train wrecked by a woman that attempted to blackmail him for money and have him incarcerated when it didn’t work, hoping for civil damages.
“The rulings that the judge made in the case against Lindsey Hill, before it was settled, brought front and center the idea that actually there was no judicial conclusion. His quote was: “The state court proceedings (the restraining order hearing) did not necessarily decide that Bauer did not batter or sexually assault Hill.” He said: “Notwithstanding Hill’s consent to some form of rough sex, Bauer engaged in acts while Hill was unconscious, when she was physically and legally unable to give consent.”“
grn – Think about how clouded this whole situation was. A person agrees and says yes you can hit me as part of contracted physical encounter which also includes strangling and if strangled it could lead to the person being temporarily unconscious but that is known ahead of time. It’s not the first time nor will it be the last time the person who does this for a living chooses to engage in such a contract.
I think a fair judge who recognized that the person’s profession is doing this type of behavior should recognize many aspects of the sheer act can create a state of unconsciousness and that it probably happens on a regular basis. So did the excessive activity happen while conscious, while unconscious or both? How is this not a he said she said scenario with one person being a habitual customer of the service and the other being a habitual provider of the service..
Obviously when you are unconscious you can’t give consent and that is why the contract is designed to cover that scenario. When the unconscious happens from strangling or punching or any other means deemed within the scope of the contract, the potential of one party to become unconscious is a given. So if those were the expectations of the contract and they were agreed to, there should have been no issue legally just morally.
Think about the many punishment oriented sports. A punch to the face is known to cause damage yet the sport is allowed to be conducted under a binding contract. Unfortunately, the same legal argument holds. If he had stabbed her and that wasn’t in the contract then all this makes legal sense but he hit her as they agreed upon and she saw dollar signs thanks to some acquaintances. Those advisors to the woman destroyed Bauer’s career because as outsiders they didn’t like what happened to their friend while she was doing her job and proposed an action that would somehow right the situation. Would they cash in on the windfall money? I’m guessing they hoped for that but even if they didn’t, the idea that she was unconscious should have been expected based on the nature of what they were about to do. If that was a concern, then it should have been stipulated in the contract. Obviously it wasn’t based on the judge’s comments so ruling in a vacuum without recognizing that the unconscious state was part of the paid for activities is short sighted by the judge.
I don’t condone the activity but I do condone Bauer’s civil liberties to participate in a legally binding contract that may bring harm to one of the parties. It’s the essence of sports so it’s not a male vs female thing. Society accepts physical violence against others under the guise of sports. The MLB response was gross extrapolation of the CBA content.and should have never happened. If a player gets embarrassed publicly by private actions he considered private at the time they happened then he must live with the consequences and the public shaming is significant. The excessive punishment by the commissioner was a hero move on his part in hopes of making the HOF and being considered a good guy who did right by public opinion. To hell with the CBA, this guy wants the HOF so he bent the rules using the support of the owners who pay him!!!. .
That was what happened in court for the criminal trial. What I referred to was after that trial when Bauer and his attorney were finally allowed to get communications from her for a civil trial (it took them nearly 2 years to get her phone records with video, texts, calls, and audio).
It showed she planned to do what she did, discussed it with others, and was perfectly fine the night she claimed it happened and also during the morning before she left. She was dumb enough to save her communications and the video she made of herself that morning and later during the next day. She was fine.
william-2 = Didn’t know that. Just confirms what I thought. Makes the commissioner look like a bigger jerk than he already is!!!
The length of the ban and punishment was obviously based more on what the league thought than what actually happened.
I think the league showed their personal bias towards Bauer in every aspect of his case. They do not like Bauer because he speaks his mind, and in a lot of circumstances those opinions placed MLB in a bad light. Remember, he was the reason for the substance ban, and he has spoken several times about the league allowing certain pitchers to cheat even after the ban. He won a Cy Young blatantly using sticky stuff to prove his point. He said he would, he did, and he was the Cy Young because of it. It forced their hand. Again, Bauer made the league look bad and was the single biggest reason for a major rule change that affected people’s perception of how the league handles cheating, punishments, and how the league deals with large contract pitchers vs low contract pitchers differently.
It was not an accident that the year after they instituted the sticky ban that certain pitchers spin rates that plummeted are right back up again.
The result was the largest ban ever despite questions about the case, and no guilty verdict. THEY decided he had not only done what was accused to this woman, but it deserved being extended over and over again beyond the initial ban. The fact that it was retroactively diminished was meaningless. He was blackballed by teams (a Cy Young winner). Even after it was discovered that the woman planned to blackmail Bauer, we saw no public statement of apology, and we can assume that MLB is still exerting pressure on teams to not sign him (a Cy Young winner).
Regardless of my personal opinion on the matter, or my opinion on him being so outspoken, if people truly believe in due process this was a terrible situation where innocent until PROVEN guilty was completely disregarded. IF he was found guilty, or the league knew the accusations to be true but not punishable in court they penalty would be justified. It was neither proven by the court or the league, as we learned recently, and the punishment still has not been addressed by the league. They know they got it wrong and still will not admit it.
Between the “me too” movement and the leagues animosity, MLB decided to err on the side of perception.
William2 – Excellent and well written.
Full Throttle! ahahahha
Break out the Duckboats ahahahah
Icon – Just finished my annual estimate by series, I knew you would be excited!!!
Lets start with a break down of the difficulty by month:
March/Apr – 32 Games – 3 vs Good, 17 vs Medium and 12 vs Bad
May – 28 games – 12 vs Good 13 vs Medium and 3 vs Bad
June – 24 games – 17 vs Good 3 vs Medium and 4 vs Bad (OUCH!!)
July – 24 games – 9 vs Good 6 vs Medium and 9 vs Bad
Aug – 29 games – 23 vs Good 3 vs Medium and 3 vs Bad (double OUCH!)
Sept – 25 games – 16 vs Good 6 vs Medium and 3 vs Bad
Projections by month
March/Apr – 16 wins and 16 losses
May – 9 wins and 19 losses
June – 9 wins and 15 losses
July – 11 wins and 13 losses
Aug – 11 wins and 18 losses
Sept – 10 wins and 15 losses
Projection is 66-96 with the following break down
VS AL East 17-35
VS the rest of the teams 49-61
VS GOOD TEAMS – 77 games 23-54
VS MEDIUM TEAMS – 48 games 21-27
VS BAD TEAMS – 37 games 21-16
The projections by month include all series starting in that month so don’t point out that the total for the ACTUAL month is wrong because this is a series based analysis.
Some base assumptions include who is good, medium and bad.
Here is the breakout:
Good includes NYY, BAL, TB, BAL, LAD, PHI, SD, ATL, TEX, HOU,and ARI
Medium includes SEA, CLE, CHC, SF, MIN, STL, MIL, DET, CIN and NYM
Bad includes OAK, LAA, PIT, CWS, KC, OAK, COL
We need more talent to better compete with the AL East teams and to dominate the bad teams even more. The medium teams are the most difficult to predict so for the most part if you are at home you win 2 of 3 and if you are on the road you lost 2 of 3. Four game series are split.
I knew it was going to be ugly because the AL East should beat us up again and this time it’s not as likely we will do so well against NYY and TOR. The 9-4 and 7-6 records far exceeded the project 4-9 for both series. The 16 wins vs those two teams accounted for the variance in the system that projected 74 wins. We won four more than the prediction and the two match-ups added 8 wins so the rest of the series we four games under the predictions. NYY with Soto should give us a more normal series total. TB beat us 11 of 13 games and that number should drop in 2024.but only by one game. TB owns Boston since DD left.
It’s always fun to see how the season is going to go and it appears we should have a decent start and be buried by the all-star game, kinda like every year since 2019 except 2021.
I commend you for taking the time to do that. It is well thought out, and I would think done trying to take any bias out, just working on the numbers.
I think the Red Sox are an AL east last place team barring another team getting markedly worse beyond what anyone projects. They lack the talent to truly compete for a post season entry, and I feel the lack of moves clearly indicate that the brass has embraced that end to the season before it begins.
I think it was a rational conclusion they made. I do think they should have made at least one long term pitching move thinking towards the future for a two-year time period before they begin to compete, but they decided/hoped that they could wait and hopefully land at least one or two elite pitchers in those next two years while they get their house in order, while taking more advantage of those long-term contracts having more years during that competitive time period.
Although those projections may turn out being right, I think they will outperform those estimates. I expect a little improvement defensively (not much but noticeable) and I think we will see a little bit of progress with the younger guys. I think the rotation will end up having close to the same results, which were not good, and barring salary dumps, the bullpen should be about the same also (also not very good). I think despite losing power we are already lacked, and no marked improvements anywhere on the pitching side, we should be able to remain within a few wins of last year’s results. I see some teams on paper regressing we play, and with a balanced schedule the bludgeoning we would have taken with the old schedule being lessoned. I don’t have a record for you based on the kind of work you did, but I would guess about 75 wins based on our health. If there are any major injuries to even 2 or 3 players, we can easily slide down to what you project imho (we do not have enough talented depth to replace anyone, especially on the pitching side). I am hoping we do not. Regardless, it’s a last place finish. We are simply dealing with where we land with a high draft pick.
William2 – A couple of things to note. The non AL East Games have more medium and high opponents than last year. I think that impacts the totals to some degree. Also, I have upgraded NYY vs BOS match-ups because I think we are weaker and they are stronger.
So my thoughts on why it turned out 8 games lower than last year is we lost Justin Turner who had the best season of all the hitters. We didn’t fix the defense. We have far less pitching in the starting rotation and the relief isn’t quite as good either. 8 games isn’t a big drop off but it does reflect a lesser team in 2024 AS OF TODAY. These series predictions will be updated should Breslow get off his butt and do his job.
I believe the 66 win season will put us around the 8th draft pick.
VS GOOD TEAMS – 77 games 23-54
VS MEDIUM TEAMS – 48 games 21-27
VS BAD TEAMS – 37 games 21-16
===========================
65-97
So in my annual rite of Spring, I will offer to wager that you will be, once again, wrong.
And, as always, I assume you will decline.
Joe – I actually went back and upgraded one series by one game in favor of Boston that’s why the top says 66-96 but the summary did not get adjusted up one game.
66-96
It’s not a bet it’s the same formula I have used for years and published in the last several years and you always want to bet me as if it’s a prediction of mine.
It’s a series by series analysis that acts as an initial estimate to the strength of the team versus it’s schedule. Put your huge ego aside and stop trying to turn this into some type of contest.
You don’t have to agree or disagree. The data shows the issues in place for the coming season. An easy start, and 3 months of really challenging opponents.
The above information is like a budget not a bet. It’s to be tracked and evaluated for it’s accuracy. Last year TOR and NYY proved to be easier than predicted and the system was four wins short of what happened. Similar results happened in 2022. 2021 was the sole year where the estimate was significantly off thanks to JD, Bogey and Nate. Use it or don’t use it. It’s up to you. Think of it as foreshadowing the season.