Latest On MLB’s Expansion Timeline

With the A’s and Rays nearing resolution on their long-running stadium disputes, expansion could become a more pressing topic for MLB in the second half of the 2020s. Rob Manfred said earlier this month he hoped to have the next couple major league cities agreed upon by the end of his tenure as commissioner. Manfred plans to retire at the conclusion of his term in January 2029.

ESPN’s Jeff Passan writes that while there are no current expansion plans in place, many high-ranking team and league officials consider it inevitable the league will move to 32 franchises. Passan suggests that’s unlikely to occur before the early portion of the 2030s, a timeline that generally aligns with Manfred’s goal of getting the ball rolling before leaving office in five years. There are clear logistical issues — expansion fees, stadium construction, etc. — that’d need to be sorted out between narrowing the field of cities and putting two more MLB teams on the field.

While the league could get a jump on that process, expansion isn’t yet a priority. The A’s are still figuring out where they’ll play between 2025-27. Manfred said this month that MLB also needed to “get our footing on local media a little bit better” before making significant changes. That’s a reference to the uncertain broadcasting revenues facing a number of teams as cord-cutting has threatened the viability of many regional sports networks.

There will also be another round of collective bargaining negotiations before the expansion process kicks into gear. We’re two-fifths of the way through the current CBA, which expires in December 2026. The last round of collective bargaining resulted in a 99-day lockout over the offseason, the first official MLB work stoppage since the strike in 1994-95. Labor issues also delayed the return to play during the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020. It’s possible the next round of CBA negotiations could be similarly contentious.

Once expansion does become a more immediate concern, various cities could make a push for teams. Passan reports that early planning is to choose one team each from the East and West. According to Passan, Nashville and Salt Lake City have emerged as preliminary frontrunners.

Music City Baseball was established in 2019 with the goal of bringing a franchise to Nashville. Don Mattingly, Tony La Russa, Bruce Bochy, Dave Stewart and Dave Dombrowski are among a host of high-profile people who have been associated with the project.

Salt Lake City’s push didn’t begin in earnest until last April. Big League Utah, a group led by former Utah Jazz owner Gail Miller, began the process of seeking an expansion franchise. SLC is one of three cities — joining Oakland and Sacramento — that is in contention to host the A’s before their planned Vegas stadium opening in 2028. Landing the A’s on a temporary basis would presumably boost their chances of securing a franchise of their own in the future.

Of course, plenty can change in the intervening few seasons. Nothing is anywhere near set in stone. The process hasn’t yet begun, but it could come into focus within the next couple years. MLB has been at 30 teams since adding the Diamondbacks and Devil Rays in 1998, the longest static period since the league first expanded from 16 to 18 teams in 1961. Passan’s column is worth a full read, as he lists a few other cities that have been floated as possibilities and covers a number of challenges that groups could face as they try to secure a new franchise.