Newly-signed Dodgers southpaw James Paxton spoke to reporters (including Jack Harris of the Los Angeles Times) today regarding his recent one-year deal with the club and the physical he underwent that led to the lefty’s guarantee dropping from $11MM to just $7MM on the deal. Paxton noted during the scrum that the reduction in the contract’s guarantee wasn’t due to any one specific injury concern the Dodgers had but instead was due to the combination of his history with Tommy John surgery, which kept him away from a big league mound for almost two entire seasons, and the knee issue that ended his 2023 campaign in early September.
“I’m an older player now, and I’m not perfect anymore,” Paxton told reporters, as relayed by Bill Plunkett of the Orange County Register. “…So there’s things that have kind of built up over the years.”
In spite of the concerns that stemmed from his physical, Paxton indicated that he has “no doubt” that he’ll be ready for the start of the 2024 campaign, adding that he feels “strong and ready” as he enters camp. Per his revised, incentive-laden deal, Paxton will receive a $2MM bonus for being on the roster for either the start of the Korea series against the Padres, which begins on March 20, or the club’s stateside opener against the Cardinals the following week.
Paxton, 35, has been held back by injuries frequently throughout his career. Drafted by the Blue Jays with the 37th overall selection in the 2009 draft, the southpaw made his big league debut as a member of the Mariners back in 2013 and immediately impressed with a 1.50 ERA in a four-start cup of coffee. Through his age-30 season, Paxton regularly impressed when he was on the mound, showing the quality results of a #2 starter with a 3.50 ERA, 3.28 FIP, and 26.5% strikeout rate. Unfortunately, Paxton was limited to just 733 innings of work across those seven seasons by injury woes, which would only intensify as the calendar flipped to 2020. From 2020-22, Paxton managed just six appearances and 21 2/3 innings due to injuries.
The big lefty returned to the mound as a member of the Red Sox in May of last year and early in the season appeared to have made a triumphant return to the dominant form of his younger days. Through his first ten starts of the season, Paxton posted an impressive 2.73 ERA over 56 innings of work with a whopping 29% strikeout rate. Unfortunately, the wheels came off for the veteran southpaw after the All Star break as he struggled to a 6.98 ERA and 6.16 FIP in 40 innings of work across his final nine starts of the season before he was shut down for the season with the aforementioned bout of knee inflammation following a start where Paxton allowed six runs while recording just four outs.
After that brutal series of struggles down the stretch, Paxton finished the 2023 campaign with a 4.50 ERA that was almost exactly league average by measure of ERA+. While the form the lefty flashed early in the season with Boston last year would make him a playoff-caliber arm, Paxton need only repeat his full-season performance from 2023 to be a useful piece for a Dodgers club looking to add veteran innings to a rotation that figures to be dominated by young starters with little to no big league experience like Bobby Miller and Yoshinobu Yamamoto as well as players with substantial injury histories of their own like Clayton Kershaw, Tyler Glasnow, and Walker Buehler.
That rotation mix offers little in the way of certainty, but young arms like Emmet Sheehan, Gavin Stone, and Michael Grove appear well-positioned to help out as needed throughout the season. An opportunity seems likely to be immediately available for those youngsters as both Buehler and Kershaw are expected to open the season on the injured list, though club officials have indicated that Buehler’s stay on the shelf could be a relatively short one.
If you are over 35, you should be able to take ‘roids.
“Not perfect anymore” he’s had 2 healthy seasons out of 11. Not sure at what point he’s referring to that he was perfect, his availability has always been a question.
It’s nothing against him, but he should be accustomed to teams being leery of his health and durability at this point regardless of his age.
Might stop people from other countries lying about how young they are.
haha, indeed
Pitched against college kids until I was 41, ran my second fastest marathon (a BQ) at 46. You do slow down and are a bit more prone to injury, but you can still compete into your 40’s if you’re willing to take proper care of yourself and you have good genes (thanks mom and dad). Ryan and Fisk and Orosco are role models for us older folks.
Tell us more about yourself
Walker B showed up to camp overweight this isn’t going to be a walk in the park for the Dodgers like many are expecting
“Walker B showed up to camp overweight”…It’s hard to imagine an “overweight” Walker “tight jeans” Buehler. Isn’t that a bit like a supermodel being “overweight?” Does this mean instead of his usual 185 lbs he showed up at camp at 190 lbs?…Anyway, the Dodgers have already suggested Buehler will skip many early season starts, to focus on being ready for October, so he’ll have plenty of time to get into game shape.
It’s hilarious when people try trolling and fail so badly such as in this instance. Buehler gaining weight would be a blessing, not saying anything is wrong with him now.
But trying to throw a mishap like the old showing up overweight to a very slim player was a shot on the dark that by all means missed the target.
Yes, Walker Buehler is now the Summer 2023 version of Alek Manoah. I’m not buying it. Show pics or it didn’t happen. Not sure if Buehler is metabolically capable of weighing more than 180 pounds soaking wet.
Camp is for getting in shape.
One pitcher and question marks. That’s what $1B+ bought.
Every pitcher is a question mark,
???,
And the best lineup in baseball. And potentially the best rotation. Bad take.
@TellItGoodbye
Sorry your team didn’t sign the best player in the history of the sport; a 25yo ace; a lefty-mashing OF to a sweetheart one-year deal; a veteran lefty to potentially eat some innings (and perhaps become yet another LAD reclamation story); and trade for a ace now almost two years clear of the injuries that have hung him up to this point.
Best of luck to your ballclub this year.
Oh, and every arm is a question mark–period.
Would have had inner circle HOF career if he was drafted by the right stadium
No disrespect but I don’t think Paxton was ever really a #2 starter outside of one year. Health aside. I get that fip would argue a couple of years with me. Especially outside the three years fip liked him was there anything that made him seem particularly top of the rotation besides strikeouts? I mean I got a guy in AAA who strikes people out. Maybe I can fool someone into thinking that means he’s elite
Let’s see if he makes 10 starts. Doubtful.
Perfect. The Vegas over/under on Pax’s starts is now set at “10”. I choose “over”(but only slightly).
That’s a tuff bet. He can very well make 1-2 starts and be out for the season. I know Yankees fans are waiting for that.
I still think he should have moved to the pen and become a dominant lefty weapon AND pitch waaay less
You never know how the arm will hold up to more frequent use, even if shorter outings.
Rishi
“I took what he makes annually added what I think he would make if he were a free agent now and there you go.”
If their level of baseball knowledge is just slightly below what yours appears to be, you might have a chance.
An white K rate and average BB rate is most of the way towards being an ace
Should your white be elite?
Why do teams even deal with Scott Boras?
Big Maple!
Truth of the day: “Paxton, 35, has been held back by injuries frequently throughout his career.” That’s a very diplomatic way of saying, “Dude’s always on the IL.”
Ok so he accepted $7 mill for the IL instead of $12 mil for the IL.