February 12: Ronald Blum of the Associated Press reports the specifics on Kershaw’s performance bonuses and escalators. The future Hall of Famer would earn a $1MM bonus for his sixth start next season, $1.5MM for each of his next three starts, and $2MM if he reaches 10 starts. A relief appearance in which he accrues at least nine outs also qualifies, protecting Kershaw in the event he follows an opener.
The $5MM base value of his 2025 player option would escalate based on his ’24 workload by the following amounts:
- $2MM for six starts
- $3MM apiece for seven through nine starts
- $4MM for 10 starts
If he exercises the option, the deal includes additional bonuses for 2025 depending on the number of starts he makes in each of the next two years.
February 9: Clayton Kershaw is heading back to the Dodgers. The team announced Friday that the left-hander has re-signed on a two-year guarantee — the second season of which is a player option. Kershaw, a client of Excel Sports Management, is recovering from November shoulder surgery and isn’t expected to pitch until the second half of the season, at the earliest. He’s reportedly guaranteed $10MM on the pact: $5MM in each season of the deal.
Joel Sherman of the New York Post reports that Kershaw’s 2024 incentives are contingent on him making six to ten starts this season. Any increases to this year’s base salary will also be reflected in the value of his player option. Sherman further adds that between those escalators and incentives specific to the 2025 season, Kershaw could earn as much as $25MM in year two of the contract. That’d give him a total earning power of $37.5MM over the two years of the contract.
Kershaw can boost that 2024 salary to $12.5MM based on the number of games he starts this season. The number of games he starts can also boost the base value of his 2025 player option. Right-hander Tony Gonsolin was moved to the 60-day IL to open a 40-man roster spot for Kershaw. If and when the Dodgers need another 40-man spot, Kershaw himself can be transferred to the 60-day IL.
Assuming he’s able to suit up at some point in the second half, the 2024 season will be Kershaw’s 17th pitching for the Dodgers, who selected him with the No. 7 overall pick in the 2006 draft. Injuries have begun to take their toll on Kershaw, who hasn’t reached 30 starts in a season since 2015, but the quality of his results remains largely constant. From 2009-15, Kershaw averaged 32 starts per year, won four straight ERA titles and took home three Cy Young Awards. Since 2016, he’s averaged just 24 starts per 162-game season but maintained a brilliant 2.55 ERA — including sub-2.50 marks in three of the past four seasons.
Kershaw clearly wasn’t pitching at 100% for much of the 2023 season. A shoulder strain landed Kershaw on the injured list in July, and manager Dave Roberts candidly acknowledged in September that he was pitching at less than full strength. Los Angeles limited Kershaw to five innings per start for all but one start in his return from the injured list (a 5 1/3-inning outing in his final appearance of the season). Along the way, Kershaw’s average fastball dipped to career-low levels; he averaged just 89.4 mph on his fastball in his return — including just an 88.7 mph average through his final four starts.
Diminished velocity notwithstanding, Kershaw remained quite effective. In eight post-IL starts he turned in a pristine 2.23 ERA. His 22.2% strikeout rate and 11.1% walk rate were both a ways from his pre-injury levels (27.7%, 6.3%), but Kershaw looked to making the most of what he had to offer on any given day. He didn’t allow more than three runs in any of those final eight appearances and in fact held opponents to one or zero runs in six of them. The D-backs ambushed him for six runs in the first inning of his lone NLDS start, however, ending his season on a low point.
It’s not yet clear when Kershaw might be able to rejoin the Dodgers’ staff, though they’ll presumably provide an update when announcing his deal and discussing it with the media. A returning Kershaw in the second half will provide some high-end insurance for a Dodgers rotation that is teeming with uncertainty. Right-hander Yoshinobu Yamamoto will be adjusting to a new culture and a new league in his debut campaign this year. Right-hander Walker Buehler is in his first full season back from Tommy John surgery. Southpaw James Paxton is a perennial injury risk. Young righties Bobby Miller, Emmet Sheehan, Gavin Stone and Kyle Hurt haven’t pitched full big league seasons.
As already noted, Kershaw won’t be the only potential second-half addition for the Dodgers. The aforementioned May underwent a Tommy John revision and flexor tendon repair in early July but could potentially be back for the stretch run. Gonsolin, who underwent Tommy John surgery in late August, feels like a longer shot to make it back but could potentially do so in a bullpen capacity if his rehab plays out in a best-case scenario.
The Dodgers are set to pay the luxury tax for a third straight season and are already well into the final tier of luxury tax penalization. As such, any dollars committed to Kershaw will be taxed at a 110% rate. That apparently won’t be a deterrent as they welcome the future Hall of Famer back for a 17th season.
In 2712 2/3 innings though his big league career, Kershaw owns a 210-92 record, a 2.48 ERA, a 27.6% strikeout rate and a 6.3% walk rate. He’s a ten-time All-Star with five NL ERA titles, three Cy Young Awards and a National League MVP Award under his belt.
Joel Sherman and Jon Heyman of the New York Post first reported the Dodgers and Kershaw had reached an agreement. The Athletic’s Andy McCullough reported the presence of a 2025 player option. Fabian Ardaya of The Athletic reported the terms of the deal.
Anywhere else would just feel wrong tbh
Dodgers and Yankees continue to operate with unlimited payroll funds while the rest of the league shops in the garbage dumpster. The economics of the game have become stupid!
Yankees have spent 37 million in free agency
They traded for Juan Soto, and are the ONLY team with the $$$ to sign him next year. They already have that money in future budget projections.
Giants beg to differ… they have tons of money and are desperate for a big star.
Very Barry
I believe that odds of Soto signing with the Yankees for 2025 and beyond is less than 49%, although I agree that the Yankees have better odds than any other team.
Statistically, for all impending free agents, the odds are greater than random that the player signingg with their current team. Nothing new there.
Soto is currently a 4-5 WAR DH faking a corner OF spot, who may well sign the richest contract in baseball.
A typical 21st century signing for these Yankees.
Unfortunately, the Giants owner would prefer to spend his money in politics.
The Yankees are not the “only team with the $$$ to sign him next year”. The Giants, Red Sox, Mets, Cubs all have to money to pursue Soto. And thanks to the pandora’s box that MLB allowed the Dodgers to open by being able to differ hundreds of millions of dollars that could open the field even more
MLB needs to close the differed money loophole.
I’m just saying a team could sign a guy, then send him to their friends at a huge investment bank and allow him to borrow the same amount that is differed
Very few players have the endorsement income that allowed Ohtani to defer so much money.
Drasco
Go, Cubs!
Not sure if you mis-spelled deferred or if “differed” was a joke or synonym for different.
I think MLB would find an interest-free loan to count as compensation toward thresholds.
The problem is MLB opened a door that now can’t be closed, at least not until the next CBA comes around because if you let the Dodgers do it and tell everyone else they can’t watch how fast they start looking for a new Commissioner
Nah, Soto will be a Twin.
My daughter was yapping at me about homework when I was attempting to type.
I wasn’t saying an interest free loan from a team but since all owners are at the very least multimillionaires, the run in circles of other multimillionaires/billionaires and have connections with banking organizations, it’s similar to a college booster. Im not saying it’s happened or is happening but it could happen.
@Drasco, deferred $ has to be funded annually. It is nothing new and nothing all that complex or deceptive. It just inflates the overall figures with the time value of accrued $. Ohtani’s camp obviously wanted to inflate this # to further enhance his aura. The reality is tho he signed a $460M deal as far as it pertains to the Dodgers. Thats what they ll pay altogether and during the duration of his contract, the rest will be paid by a 3rd party investment institution.
As for Ohtani borrowing against any assets he has or is owed, that is upto him and he’d obviously pay interest to do so. And individuals or businesses leveraging assets is nothing new. In Ohtani’s case it seems highly doubtful tho. The guy was making millions in Japan and opted to live in team dorms for 3 years for free to focus on baseball. Not to mention the insane endorsement $ he brings in.
The amount of preconceived false notions on hiw deferred contracts work is mind boggling to say the least….
@ROX contracts have had deferred $ for decades. It’s nothing new and the MLB and CBT require principal needed to accrue to deferred value to be funded at time of each deferral. Ohtani essentially signed a $460M contract, the rest is just $ accruing over time. Pandora’s Box was not opened in any way, all this contract has done is shine a bigger spotlight on the financially illiterate peout there.
And he will age like Giancarlo Stanton.
@Rsox…Do you think that limiting deferred money in contracts will be part of the next CBA?
Maybe there is some likelihood that the % of $ that can be deferred is addressed in next CBA, but not much.
You missed the entire gist of what I was saying.
We all age like Stanton just as Stanton ages like every other human and all those who came before us. Time is a fixed construct we created to measure our orbit around the Sun.
@Drasco, I suppose I did. Because I don’t think you know what you are saying. The Dodgers will have to pay out $460M over the next 10 years to fund Ohtani’s contract and the deferred monies. It’s not a deceptive tactic and it appears Ohtani’s canp clearly was motivated by bolstering his image by inflating the contract to look larger than it truly is. Which is smart on their part as it helps bolster his brand.
*deferred
More to my point is while yes there has always been deffered money in many large contracts it was never at % that Ohtani deffered. If as a player you are willing to deffer 90+% of your salary to the future that’s your gamble to take, however as a whole it opens up the playing field to a much larger group of teams if more players are open to it so at some point what is too much? And where do you draw the line? That is what MLB will have to figure out
@RSOX do you understand when deferred monies have to be funded?? If so you would understand that this is essentially a $460M contract. Ohtani’s camp was clearly pitching this unique type of deferral for the attention it would gather.
MLB already has drawn a line as well, the deferred $ has to be funded annually at time of deferral. There is nothing different or under different rules with Ohtani’s contract, other than they tried to sensationalize the value.
Throw in the new owners in Baltimore too.
I think the dodgers could sign him too
Do you realize players like Bonilla and others had deferred 100% of their contracts for particular season(s). Again this is nothing at all new, nothing nefarious, and in no way circumvents CBT. This was just a creatine way Ohtani’s team sought to bolster the mystique behind him. He’s also a unique player that deferring $ is easier with the endorsement revenue he has.
No. I know what I was saying. It didn’t have anything to do with Ohtani either.
I said the loophole needs to be closed so teams don’t exploit it because it is an exploitable loophole.
Let’s just say I’m an owner and I have a rich friend, of course I do because I’m a billionaire right. I sign a played for 10 million dollars but I defer 9 million of his payment for 10 years. I can then give my friend 9 million dollars for whatever reason, call it an investment. He gives the player 9 million as a loan to payback whenever, he’s good for it.
It’s not out of the realm of possibilities, and that of course is a very basic example without and shell games going on but we have seen in sports, college, the amount of shady shell games that have been played by athletics and boosters.
I don’t believe teams are required to turn over the deferred salary to a third party, they only need to set it aside in their own accounting, to show they haven’t spent it. This doesn’t even mean the teams have to be responsible in investing the set-aside money, as was proven in worst case scenario fashion with the Mets and Bernie Madoff. Maybe MLB has tightened the rules since then. I’d hope so.
@Drasco that is then fraud and people go to prison.
The owners are doing these deferrals because the $460M they ll pay is much cheaper than $700M. Nobody was going to give Ohtani $700M, his contract would not have been sensationalized. That’s the bottom line.
As for hypothetical criminal acts you are proposing, theyvare just that hypothetical. You are trying to spin this to something it is not. Again deferred $ nothing new, it has long had guidelines and stipulations, and again nothing nefarious. That is just reality.
Drasco, that’s not even close to how it works. There is no exploitable loophole. Instead of paying to the player it goes to a fund, where it theoretically accrues interest equal to the deferred amount. It doesn’t need to be addressed in a CBA because it’s financially equivalent and has zero CBT implications.
They actually have addressed it tho, requiring teams to fund the principal needed to accrue. Considering they ve even safeguarded the process it’s amusing how this topic is beaten like a stubborn mule.
It’s also laughable how many try and portray it as this interest free loan Dodgers will just ignore and start cutting checks for all of a sudden in 10 years.
Rs
Total non-understanding of the situation on your part
Deferred payments aren’t anything unexpected or unknown to MLB or players
There is specific language in the CBA that allows for it. It’s almost certain that the players held in to deferred payments as it allows teams to give them more money (by using present value instead of AAV). It’s a benefit to the players. If the teams want to take it away, they’ll need to give something in return,
Also, look up Bruce Sutter’s contract
You are right. I love the Yankees, but their signings in the 21st century have been mostly poor decisions, except the 2007-08 offseason, when they signed Sabathia, Burnett, Teixeira, and Swisher. Cashman has to go, at this point. Many people, falsely, give him credit for the 98,99 and 2000 World Series Championships. He was given the keys to a Corvette and didn’t wreck it. At least not for a while. He’s only signed three great pitchers as GM. Sabathia, Tanaka, and Cole. Not enough. It’s always about signing the biggest slugger, that almost always becomes half the player he was before becoming a Yankee, and sees his average dip by over 100 points, largely because of that ridiculous short porch in right, that totally screws up their swing, because they try to jack HRs every time up. Teixeira and Giambi are the two most glaring examples of that.
Ohtani deferred the money to avoid taxes. Will California ever get any tax money when he moves back to Japan?
Funny how so many people are suddenly so concerned about California collecting appropriate taxes since the recent Ohtani signing. Shohei responsible for a new generation of forensic accountants and tax collectors. Sounds like he’ll be the face of the previously faceless. Didn’t have this on the 2024 bingo card but whatever.
Of course California will get their taxes. It’s more about spreading the income over decades to lower his average tax rate. It’s a very smart move. His endorsement income will quickly drop when he retires.
They aren’t the only team. Dodgers have plenty of money to waste.
That’s an ignorant comment. They are far from the “only team” able to sign him next year. The O’s have $2 million in guaranteed salaries next season (plus arb/pre-arb) and brand new owners and the Dodgers have potentially $70 million coming off payroll in 2025. Off the top of my head, both of those franchises could easily sign him. Not to mention the Giants, the Angels, the Mets, etc who could all be in the running.
Lol your daughter should be more important to you than bickering about millionaires with strangers on the internet.
RE SB
I guess I have the right person muted
you’re joking, right? Giants are play-acting like they want to spend money. they don’t….
Well, not desperate enough to actually sign a big star….
If said player in this asinine construction needs to take out a loan then why would they agree to defer 90% of their salary in the first place? That’s the part you bump up against. The players have to agree. It isn’t an owner demand, it’s a two-way street.
It’s “defer,” not “differ.”
Well the comments on it are born of jealousy and ill will, not critical thinking. Remind Dodger – hater that the games still must still be played on the field and maybe rather than hating on LA, think about your own team and ask youself why they cannot be run like Tampa Bay, a small market team that is competitive year in and year out.
Soto isn’t a big star. He’s a stat geek’s star, but he doesn’t sell tickets. He’s not iconic. He’s no Ohtani. He’s no Mays. He’s no Machado. And he’s most definitely not a “generational” player. He’s a guy who gets on base and can’t field. I certainly hope the Giants don’t waste money on him. Overrated to the nth degree.
TIG
“Soto isn’t a big star. He’s a stat geek’s star, but he doesn’t sell tickets. He’s not iconic. He’s no Ohtani. He’s no Mays. He’s no Machado. And he’s most definitely not a “generational” player. He’s a guy who gets on base and can’t field. I certainly hope the Giants don’t waste money on him. Overrated to the nth degree.”
Wow. What a blisteringly warm taek.
Imagine all the possible thoughts you could have had, and having that one. And thinking it was so good that you should post it online,
Yeah. Go figure. I stand by every word. Talented player, yep. Generational? Iconic? Sells tickets when he comes to town? Uh, no. Just my lame take.
I ll agree I don’t know if Soto will go down as a generational star and of he somehow does if he’s worthy. But he absolutely is a big star and has massive name recognition. Those are things that happen and are not measured directly by stats. Stats help but stardom can come in many way shapes and forms as to what feeds the appeal.
As for Soto being a generational talent, his offensive production is definitely trending in that direction. His lack of defense value does not help his value in any way though. And he is kind of an oddity as far as the hype behind him with his one way value.
@Very Barry That’s a reason against trading for Soto not for it. If they were so certain of their ability to sign him they wouldn’t feel the need.
How do you explain all the teams that have a higher payroll than the dodgers?
Dodger Dog the way Ohtani’s contract is structured. While I don’t have a problem with it, he is only counting as $43 million when he should be counting $70 million.
Deferred money. Their actual payroll far exceeds any other team and is by far the largest in baseball history. Ohtani ridiculously only counts $2 million against LA’s 2024 payroll even though he should be at $70 million a year. He is counted at $46 million for LA’s luxury tax. Yamamoto counts at $9 million this year even though he is making $27 million a year. At least that $27 million number counts against the luxury tax which is why the Dodgers are still ahead of the Cohen tax.
Everyone knows the Dodgers have by far the highest payroll in baseball and it’s not even close. No Dodger payroll shenanigans are going to change that.
Why would you count $70mm per year? With deferred money that far out you’d have to discount it at the appropriate rate. Salary inflation is very real. If he were to get a non-deferred contract for 10-years there is no way that it would be anything close to $70mm per year. It would be in that $43mm per year rate.
False. the $46M a year counts against the CBT and the Dodgers are required to set this money aside annually. So this is the actual cost and he shouldn’t “be at” $70M. I realize financial literacy isn’t a thing for a lot of people, but this is a fact whether you understand it or not. You are also wrong about Yamamoto. His AAV for CBT purposes is $27M and doesn’t “count” any other way. His contract also included a $50M signing bonus.
Actually, according to Fangraphs, NYM have highest projected payroll and luxury payroll for 2024. Yankees very close third behind #2 Dodgers. Then a big gap to #4. So, incorrect to say Dodgers by far highest payroll and it’s not even close.
The Dodgers actual payroll is their actual payroll. Deferred payments will be input, when they are accrued, as I understand it.
Since when are deferred payments required to be set aside in advance? If that were true, the only reason to defer payments in the first place would be to manipulate the CBT payroll number, yet teams who aren’t even close to paying the tax still use the strategy, especially back before the CBT even existed.
Dog – There ARE NO other teams that have a higher CBT payroll.
spotrac.com/mlb/tax/
Mets are at $310M
Dodgers are at $301M before the Kershaw contract
Yankees are at $297M
Braves are at $261M
Every other team is below $250M
Since always. Setting aside deferred salary payments is a requirement of the CBA. They also can’t be used to manipulate the CBT because of the present value calculations. Their financial value really isn’t as great as it might appear, though I imagine a hedge fund owner such as Guggenheim assumes they can beat the modest annual returns figured into the present value calculation (around 5%) and come out ahead of the game when it comes time to pay out the deferrals.
DDog who has a higher payroll? The Mets? Dodgers are at 310 not counting Kershaw
The problem is that “part time” players such as Kershaw ( you can include Ohtani as he will only DH for a season +) with excellent qualities but limited playability can ONLY be signed by a few teams . Pirates or Rays can’t invest in a 1/2 season pitcher . Brewers traded their star simply because they knew they wouldn’t be able to resign him . Mets, Yankees or Dodgers don’t have such qualms. Money doesn’t guarantee a WS ring but as Texas showed it sure helps get you further than not spending .
The Ohtani deal is really just a 10 year $460 million dollar deal that mostly contains deferred payments. The $700M is just window dressing for Ohtani and his agent to claim they got the biggest contract ever in sports.
The Dodgers don’t get a free pass for a decade to fund the majority of the contract. MLB’s collective bargaining agreement requires that they instead have to fund $44M into a financial product (like an annuity) within 1-2 years of each seasons payment due date. That number plus the $2M paid person during years 1-10 counts against the CBT ($46M AAV).
The same $44M after being invested for 10 years will be paid out at $68M to Ohtani each season over the span of ten payment over ten years.
The misrepresented dollar amount is the same trick that state’s use when advertising lottery prizes. They advertise the prize in future dollars based on what the total is of all payments over time but they do give the winners the option of collecting the prize at its present value with the assumption that the present value will grow to equal the future value if invested.
According to Spotrac, in 2024 the Dodgers have the seventh highest project payroll (prior to Kershaw signing) currently at $214M. Teams 1-6 on the list are the Yankees, Mets, Astros Phillies, Rangers and Braves.
As far as luxury tax calculations for 2024 (which is what really matters to teams), #1 is the Mets, #2 is the Dodgers at $301M (tax included), #3 Yankees, #4 Braves, #5 Astros and #6 Phillies.
which site is saying 310 mill? spotrac has them at 301, and fangraphs at 297 not counting kershaw.
Then why do teams that don’t spend up to the CBT use deferred payments on occasion?
Answer: Because it has NEVER been required in ANY CBA to set aside deferred payments in advance! They can if they want to do so, but most teams use deferred payments so that they don’t actually have to pay the entire salary during the duration of the contract itself, thus they can lower their yearly payrolls by a certain amount in exchange for needing to pay dead money in their yearly payrolls in future seasons.
Also, teams do use deferred payments to manipulate the CBT by lowering the AAV of the contract.
If neither of these advantages existed like you seem to think they don’t, there’d be no point in offering deferred contracts at all.
No, the Dodgers DO have free reign to hold off on those payments. That’s why they’re deferred in the first place! If the Dodgers had the money available in advance, they would’ve just offered Ohtani $460M over 10 years. The teams don’t care about “window dressing” or bragging rights like that.
Oh, but now you’re saying they only have to invest it just one to two years in advance before the deferred payments are due? You just contradicted yourself! That means they do have free reign to hold off on the deferred payments except for just that year or two! In that case, they may not get a full decade, but they still get to wait 8 or 9 years before the money needs to be ready.
Whether you gain an advantage in lower AAV in CBT or not, deferring money is always advantageous to any organization or corporation. While the Dodgers could certainly pay Ohtani $46mm now why do it when you don’t have to and defer most of the contract. As long as said player is okay with it (which is rare given Ohtani’s endorsement situation) and within the rules.
To get to $46mm per year over 10 years you’d have to discount Ohtani’s salary payouts by a rate of about 4.5%, which you could argue is some kind of MLB salary inflation rate. But what is the discount rate of an organization or corporation? Much higher than that. If you discount Ohtani’s salary payouts at a conservative 8% that is the equivalent of paying out $29.3mm per year over 10 years. If at a more realistic 10% discount rate that is the equivalent of $23mm per year over 10 years. The economics for the organization are much more advantageous and why any team would want to defer. Of course it’s balanced by not wanting too much money tied up in future years but economically it 100% makes sense to defer as much now.
It’s advantageous if you don’t invest the set-aside money with Bernie Madoff. Just ask the Mets about that one.
The present value discount to get to the $46M does seem to be under 5% per year, though it should be noted that the MLBPA came up with a different (lower, IIRC) present value, which only tells me that the discount rate isn’t set in the CBA. It’s pretty modest in any case and I have little doubt that Guggenheim believes they can handily beat it and make money on the deal.
@Deej Ohtani counts $46M because that is the true cost. $2M annually and $44M annually to fund the deferral. The Dodgers are not ahead in any way. The $700M represents the time value of $ and is largely irrelevant.
Deferrals usually provide security for a player later on. In Ohtani’s case it appears deferred $ was used to try and falsely inflate and sensationalize the value of his contract. If that is the case, it has clearly been a total success….
False. The CBA explicitly requires deferrals to be fully funded.
theathletic.com/5129913/2023/12/11/shohei-ohtani-m…
They have about a year to start setting the funds aside. So there’s just one of the points.
The fact that 20 people liked your comment saying that Ohtani should count $70 mil towards the luxury tax just shows that people do not read and/or comprehend anything nowadays. Big yikes
This is from an article on The Ringer that sources an LATimes article about the contract (it’s behind a paywall).
“In fact, they can’t just forget about their future debts for a decade; as the L.A. Times noted, the CBA specifies that each season’s deferral must be “fully funded by the club” within two years of the season when the deferred compensation is earned. ”
theringer.com/mlb/2023/12/12/23998355/shohei-ohtan…
sports.yahoo.com/shohei-ohtani-deferring-68-millio…
Very Barry
The inequalities among billionaire team owners are less than those among common people. Want to ban inheritances?
The only way to level the playing field would be to implement a salary cap, which the players will never agree to.
I mean really, if we’re honest about it, yes. What would be unfair about each generation really making it on their own contribution? I don’t think there’s a fair way to make it happen at this point, so this is a fool’s errand. Death taxes are already worked around to the point of being meaningless.
I’d rather ban Californians
The Green Bay Packers, Dallas Cowboys and New York Giants ALL operate under the same hard salary cap. Seems to make ALL teams have a legit shot at competing.
There is a simple way. Teams that like Dodgers, Yankees others paying any amount of luxury taxes, will not be able to sign players on the first round of the annual draft. Positioning the rest of the teams in a better position have better selections. Number 2, teams receiving less than 80 million on revenue sharing will also be position behind those that financially need more help. 3,teams finishing among the last bottom 10, get to draft twice in the first round. And last but not least teams that do not use their revenue sharing monies to sign upper level talent, will not be able to
participate in rounds 3 and 4 of the draft. I will also add, that teams with 4 top 100 hundreds projects will be denied to draft in the first round.
Seems complicated, not at all. Call my friend Sal,sorry I mean, AI,to take care of this.
Just put in a hard salary cap so every team is working with the same payroll.
I rather that they ban you.
that would also come with a salaray floor, to which the owners will never agree.
hard cap of 180 million, floor of 150 million. you think the owners will go for that?
No, no way owners agree to that. Big market or small market owners. Players’ Association would never sign off on that either.
FrankPr21
That just encourages teams to spend less.
If you want a cap, you need a floor. I would be fine with a rule that says any team that spends less than $125 million or more than $250 million loses a 1st round pick for the following year.
I would also be fine with a rule that requires all contracts to be paid out in equal incrememnts every months for the duration of the contract. So a three years $36 million contract must be paid $1 million per month. I see no reason for such a rule, but I would have no problem with it either.
Owners would lose money. Owners make more money with more tv/cable.internet/live revenue. There is more tv/cable/internet/live revenue if big tv market teams are successful.
Now, because this is a government permitted monopoly, perhaps the government could steo in, but the owners as a whole have no motivation to do what you seek.
i’m sure the players will be happy with whatever you decide they are worth
Kripes
It would encourage people to spend or gift every penny before they die. So in addition to banning inheritance, you would have to strictly limit gifting.
Much more reasonable to have a small surplus tax on wealth beyond some huge amount (say $10 million per person) because as a billionnaire you get more benefit from the country/military/police/fire defending and protecting your assets.
Even with a salary cap set at a fair level, about half the teams still wouldn’t be able to spend close to this theoretical cap limit. If they were to set it so low that most teams could spend close to the cap, the players would overall lose hundreds of millions compared to their current income ratio of close to 50% of revenues.
Try 280 for the cap.
It would also help to announce all contracts in Present Value dollars and include a note if the payment includes deferred money.
How about a salary floor and force the other teams to actually SPEND instead of funneling into owner profits?? Every owner is a billionaire, or close to. And every single one brings in a profit. Every single team COULD afford most of these FA’s, but there’s many that are just fine making a profit and not necessarily jumping too high to do it
sh
“It would also help to announce all contracts in Present Value dollars ”
SO much, this
“Ohtani signs with Dodgers for 10 years $460 million; $365 PV.
So easy. So concise.
The Yankees have signed just ONE person this offseason. Marcus Stroman for 2 years $37 million. They passed on a number of relievers and other pitchers. The Dodgers have spent over $1 billion. The Dodgers are on a different planet than everyone else including the Yankees. You are thinking about the old Yankees.
Very Barry the Yankees are taking the Dodgers castoffs. Cashman started the off season out like a true Yankees off season should be but has since begun to bargain shop.
The Yankees are the ONLY team with enough $$$$ to sign Juan Soto because the Dodgers won’t be competing.
@very Barry
If the yanks allow soto to reach free agency I would not be surprised at all if the Dodgers aggressively pursued him. They have no players signed for the corner outfield spots.
Teoscar Hernandez, Jason Heyward, and Manuel Margot are all free agents after the season. That frees up 40+ million.
Again …. The Dodgers and Yankees operate with unlimited payroll …. Everybody else shops in the dumpster. …. Freddie Freeman, Mookie Betts, Ohtani ……. This is the last 3 years …. Glasnow …..
Exactly, so you can’t rule out the Dodgers for soto next year.
Very Barry: the teams you mentioned (Dodgers and Yankees) do not operate with unlimited payroll. When they exceed the amount set as the Luxury Tax, they are punished severely. You must be a Mets fan because you did not mention the team, with the highest payroll.
Yamamoto
How do the Yankees operate under an unlimited payroll when they passed on numerous pitchers this year and have only signed one person in FA for $37 million? Why do you keep including the Yankees along with the Dodgers when the Dodgers spent $1 billion this year compared to the Yankee’s $37 million? Why do you never mention the Mets?
deej
“Yankees along with the Dodgers when the Dodgers spent $1 billion this year”
Because that literally doesn’t matter
How much teams can pay per year is what matters.
Yes because the Dodgers and Yankees are stopping the billionaire owners of other teams from spending money.
That is odd because the Kansas City Royals now have the highest AL Central payroll while the White Sox from the small market of Chicago have never signed a 100 million dollar free agent
Yankees not even close to Dodgers spending of $1.25 Billion vs $37 million in free agency this winter. Dodgers on the hook for $120+ million payroll 10 yrs from now for players that will be retired!!!! That my friend is stupidity
You clearly weren’t a business major in college. The Dodgers will earn that much money or more from the Asian market. They’ll essentially be rostering these guys for free over the course of their careers. The Guggenheim group have made their money on investments and they outsmarted the other owners and their fans. They should be applauded instead of ridiculed.
Dodgers can spend all the money they want. Have done it for a long time. However, unless we get another bad round of Covid …… The Dodgers and a World Series ring ….. It just ain’t a thing. History has proven this!
Oh, history has, has it.
Very Barry
If the Dodgers spending will not lead to a ring, why does it bother you?
For example, I thought it was great fun to see the Mets spend so much and not win. I have no grudge against their ownership trying to win the wrong way. Kudos to Cohen for shaking things up. Or for the Rays to do so well on a tight budget. Everything does not have to be equal to be enjoyable.
Sure, it would be interesting to have thirty owners with $260 million each be able to bid on 40 players to have during the year, with new auctions from scratch every season and no multi-year contracts. But we can save that for rotisserie leagues and enjoy baseball the way that it is – flawed but pretty good.
But the complainers about the Dodgers spending can have it both ways! If the Dodgers win everything they will say it really doesn’t count because they bought the championship, and if they don’t win everything they will say it proves that you can’t buy a championship.
Is it possible that the value of owning the Dodgers will increase by $120 million over the next ten years? Very likely. The only issue is luxury tax calculations, deferrals or annuities are non-issues
Exactly too reasonable for some of these whiners.
The economics of the game have become stupid!
================================
How so? Are the owners not making money?
Sure big market teams can and often do spend more. But often small market owners can spend more but don’t. They have a choice too.
The economics of the game have actually always been stupid. Back in the day they were even worse than they are now.
The Mets, Astros, Phillies, Braves, and Rangers are ahead of the Dodgers.
In what exactly? Those teams definitely are not better than the dodgers.
No, the other owners have the same opportunities they just don’t do anything about it.
The Dodger ownership group isn’t even the most wealthy in baseball, they just reinvest in their business. Be mad at the other owners who just their team to make money for themselves.
…which is all of them (even the Dodgers), except maybe the Mets currently and the Padres last year. Baseball is a business where every team does indeed expect to make a profit every single year. Very rarely do owners invest their own personal fortunes beyond buying the team in the first place.
Blame your billion dollar owner why he isn’t investing into your team.
Ah this will get interesting with the player option because the player option can absolutely be a way to manipulate the luxury tax figures.
Ah, not sure if you’re staying on top of estimated team payrolls for 2024, but the Dodgers are projecting to have the 7th most. They’re currently behind Atlanta, Philly, the Mets, Houston, Texas and the Yankees. Keep in mind that the Dodgers were able to get Ohtani to defer a tonne of his money to make the Yamamoto signing.
Dodger have the second most according to cots at 295 million and 313 CBA tax
You’re absolutely right. People accuse people like us of being the trolls for complaining but it’s actually the lowlives defending these big-market teams with stupid takes like “your owner could spend too” (but of course it would have to be their personal funds because they don’t have the TV money, ad revenue, or gate money that LA does) and being generally okay with how lopsided the economics of baseball are.
Most if not all teams could spend 200 million dollars on player payroll but the difference is if those teams spent like that, owners wouldn’t make any profit or little to no profit. They would also likely have to cut in other areas. Teams like the Dodgers and Yankees can spend 300+ million and still make a profit while still properly funding the rest of their departments.
To me, it’s not really MLB place to tell an owner how much profit they should be allowed to make, ie a salary floor, however if teams consistently run out poor teams and a cut rate payroll, MLB should step in because that owner is operating on bad faith and it’s hurting the over all value of the product. Not just putting an inferior product but also tarnishing the brand.
Example being, if the Rays don’t spend much but yet they still compete in their division, so be it. If the A’s however still refuse to spend and continue to be basement dwellers for a couple more seasons it’s them running an organization in bad faith because they are not honoring the integrity of the league
Hey Mickey,
I’m a Cardinals fan, not exactly a big market team/spender. I’m also objective and understand bigger market, bigger spender. You for some reason jumped on me assuming that I must be a Dodgers fan as I understand basic economics.
Payroll projections on Sporttrac have the Dodgers as the 7th highest expected payroll. Fan Graphs have them at # 2. Last year they were number 5 behind both NY teams, San Diego and Philly.
It’s worth keeping in mind that MLB is one business with 30 owners. They decide collectively who can join the ownership club and how to split up the sport’s revenue. They also make up all the rules for how the franchises operate.
Gimme a break. Just because many (most) of the owners don’t want/care to spend more of their billions to field a product fans will come out in droves to see like the Dodger and Yankees do that’s on them.
They wouldn’t buy a sports franchise in the first place if they were planning to lose money over it. Face it, owners are expected to make profits, and that’s the way it should be.
The only question is whether some notoriously cheap franchises could spend more to put a better product on the field and still make a reasonable profit. We can guess, but we can never know for sure.
However, in Fisher’s case, he partly brought it on himself by refusing to even pay for basic stadium maintenance like he is required to do so in his lease.
Yes, owners are and should be allowed to make a profit. As for your comment we can guess but we’ll never know for sure. Well I know and so do many others including the players……….why do you think the owners refuse to open their books every time negotiations on a new collective bargaining agreement is about to begin? I can tell you it’s not because those books are going to show the players how much money the owners are losing.
Be a Dodger or Yankee fan then. Stop whining.
And yet only 1 World Series combined in the last 16 years for the 2 teams
Then stop whining.
The NYY and LAD have three combined World Series championships this century. The Red Sox have four.. I think it’s gonna be okay.
You still have to play the game on the field. A team like Tampa Bay seems to be doing well without the “unlimited payroll.” Perhaps too much emphasis is being placed on the $$ and not enough on the way each organization is run?
Did you forget about the Mets? $86 million for 2 pitchers last year, but they did win the World… wait… they didn’t make the playoffs. And the Nationals paying Strasburg $245 million for 30 innings over 7 years. And the Angels with Rendon and Pujols. A lot of teams paying stupid money for crap, not just the Dodgers and Yankees.
and some teams like Tampa Rays are small market are somehow are compettive just about every year.
100%, and I love to see it.
Glad they finally got the formalities out of the way. CK is a Dodger.
Thank you, SODO. Yes he is!!!
Just edged out the Savannah Bananas.
Who finished ahead of the Tri-City Valleycats
With 5th place going to the Marlins
The Expos had a better chance of signing him than the Guardians.
Like Harmon Killebrew with the Royals.
I agree even as a Giants fan I’d hate to see him in another uniform.
Absolutely correct
Isnt it great that the Dodgers can afford to sign a dozen good but injury prone starting pitchers to substantial contracts just in case they are able to pitch?
I love the parity in baseball.
How much deferral money?
Before anyone comments that he should retire because “Playoff Kershaw.” Just don’t.
It would be pretty ironic if he was the reason they don’t advance in the playoffs
Mystery
Thats…that’s not at all how baseball works
Clayton Kershaw has a lifetime playoff record of 13-13 with an era of 4.49 and a WHIP of 1.11.
Compare that to Max Fried 2-4, with an era of 4.57 and a whip of 1.42 over 10 series.
And in case you think I am favoring the Dodgers, how about newcomer Tyler Glasnow with a post-season era of 5.72 and whip of 1.49 for a record of 2-6 over 7 series.
Or CC Sabathia with a post-season era of 4.28 and WHIP of 1.54 for a 10-7 record.
Yu Darvish with a post-season era of 4.19 and whip of 1.10 for a record of 4-6 over 9 series.
The average regular season era and whip in 2023 were 4.33 and 1.30. My guess is that over the past thirty years, the average era and whip of all post-season games is higher than that.
So Kershaw is not a below average pitcher in the post-season but because he is so amazing in the regular season, his rather average overall postseason record does stand out.
Kershaw should not be labeled anything other then a hall of famer. His playoff performances should not tarnish his legacy. The playoffs are a crapshoot when he was younger he was left in too long, and as he got older probably not pulled soon enough. He has won important games in the playoffs, and a real world series (s) hopefully more then one. The playoffs are hard.
Manny, as you point out, what happens in the postseason is completely different. Batters can now focus on specific pitchers while the pitchers can focus on specific hitters. It’s often the lesser players who step up and perform in the postseason while the star players often seemingly underperform. Anybody criticizing Kershaw can take a look at Judge. Anybody wondering about lesser players can look at Kiki. Yes, sometimes stars do perform. But, let’s not forget Mr. Unanimous coming up a choker in 2001 and 2004, if you need mo data.
Good reply, MannyBeingMVP. Only thing I’ll add is that the pitcher in MLB history with the most postseason starts of 7 or more IP, 0-1 runs allowed, and 3 or fewer hits allowed is…
Clayton Kershaw. He has 7 such starts in the postseason, more than any other pitcher.
Nice add.
You want truly amazing post-season play look at Christy Mathewson, Sandy Koufax, Mariano Rivera or Madison Bumgarner.
“in almost half his starts he’s failed to produce a quality start. In those 13 starts, The Claw has a dreadful ERA of 8.19”
Did not verify. It is from some blog/article stating Kershaw is the worst great pitcher in the postseason (in history).
Kershaw has started 32 post season games. If he had an era of 8.19 over 13 games (and I have not researched or verified your claim), then he probably had a sub-3 era for the other 19 games.
Oh please… Mo is the reason we lost in 2004? That was Game 4, they lost the series in Game 7. Get a life dude.
Melf
No one player is the reason a team wins or loses any baseball game or series.
Agreed that playoff numbers are worse for pitchers. You’re playing against playoff teams so no doubt that the pitching numbers overall will be worse. Yeah, Kershaw has not performed as well in playoffs. That can be said about many pitchers. Some performed better but that can also be due to small sample sizes. You pitch in the playoffs a lot less than regular season. I’ve never been a big believer of playoff clutch performers and chokers because the sample sizes are so small. It can be different numbers on any given postseason.
To be fair Max Fried only has 65 IP compared to Kershaw’s 194..1 IP. That’s a big difference. Sabathia is much closer to Kershaw with 130.1 IP, so that’s more of a fair comparsion compared.
To be fair, Max is a lot younger, but not young, and chances are that his overall playoff numbers do not improve much.
You said it all yourself so no one has to.
#Winning?
he’ll be able to choke some more!
There it is, lefty. Bet you have been saving that all this time, in case he came back. Thanks for your incredibly original sharing.
That’s an idiotic comment posted by a never was / never will be. The only reason you’ll never choke is because you’ll never be in the arena.
Now get back to work burger boy.
It’s not an idiotic comment. Kershaw is not a great pitcher in the postseason. No need to get upset over facts.
lll
Muted
Extremely high likelihood you’re just a troll who will never comment anything worth reading
Why do you feel the need to announce that you’re muting people who weren’t talking to you in the first place?
I didn’t want to get my hopes up, but I am still disappointed. I ain’t surprised, though. Cheers to a Hall of Fame career!
Dodgers fans who are nostalgic will love this. Love the guy but not sure how a 88mph fastball, old, injured arm, cant handle October, will help.
…here comes the hate replies.
“Hate replies”..Hate?…Get over yourself bro. People that “hate” over baseball are immature and infantile. How about a rational response instead? Guys with HOF pedigrees, that know how to pitch, will generally “help” your team. And besides everyone knows Kershaw is no longer a game 1 playoff starter and will not be relied upon as such.
They seemed to think so last year when he pitched game 1 in October. Do you even watch baseball
“Do you even watch”..Are you unclear what year it is?..Last year was last year and 2024 is this year. You’re welcome.
Like it or not he was our best pitcher last year and therefore deserved to start game 1. This year it will likely be Yamamoto or Glasnow. Less pressure on kersh means he will probably perform better.
@JCL10 We all know the script by now. Glasnow and Yamamoto will be in the DL by the all star game. By the end of the season the Dodgers will have the best record in the League with some rookie pitcher with an under 3 ERA and Kershaw with an under 2 ERA pitching like an Ace. Then he’ll get in the play offs and inexplicably get hit hard. Early exit, better luck next year with Ohtani pitching
@ slow
I could see paxton and glasnow on the IL at some point 100%. However Yamamoto is still young and has never dealt with injuries. I would be very surprised if he deals with extended injuries.
Once the playoffs start, I think this team is much deeper and more likely to succeed than past dodgers teams. Only time will tell I guess.
@JCL10 I’m not being serious, of course. But it wouldn’t surprise me if something similar does happen
Nando, everyone else was injured last year. Pay attention!
Sadly something like that scenario you described does seem to happen more often than not.
If he’s able to perform at all. Since they are in the penalty I would not be surprised to see a minimum salary for 24 with performance bonuses along with a decent option for 25. It’s kinda doubtful he will be able to contribute for most of the season.
JCL10 all things considered, if everyone is healthy, Buehler will be game 1 starter.
@vincent
If he is at his best, he is a great pitcher who is certainly deserving of being a game 1 starter.
However, when you consider that this is his second TJ he has undergone, it is very different. 2 TJ’s is very difficult to come back from and he will be on a innings limit this year as well, which may limit his ability to build up to being the ace we know him to be.
JCL10 all fair points.
Yamamoto has never pitched a season As long as a MLB season. Ohtani didn’t hold up too well, needing TJ fairly quickly, and now a second. It will be interesting to see how Yamamoto adapts.
Ignore the infants.
This is why –
2023 – 13 – 5 ERA 2.46 IP 131..2 H 100 ER 39 R 36 BB 40 K 137
Post his October numbers
Post yours……….that’s what I thought.
Post his October numbers.
@ nando
how bout you do it…
Are the LAD better off with him, or without him.
13-13 record with an ERA of 4.49. Not included is Kershaw’s standard sitting on bench, hunched over, head down,in October picture
Damn thats worse than I thought.
Hopefully we get 2020 LAD Kershaw. Might be possible, less stress on his arm come the postseason this year.
Definitely better. He gives us another lefty arm and is still a damn good pitcher (at least in regular season).
Not to mention he’s a leader in the clubhouse and loved by all LAD fans and players.
@Nando Kershaw shouldn’t have been pitching in Game 1 last postseason. He was clearly injured and unfortunately, the Dodgers didn’t really have many other options with Urias on leave, and Buehler, May and Gonsolin injured. I’m guessing if he comes back this season, his velocity will likely be above 88.
13-13 ERA 4.49 IP 194.1 H165 ER 94 BB 51 K 213
I will take Kershaw for a post season start everyday of the week.
Keep hating fool!
Other than injuries, he’s still remarkably consistent. I feel ya though, sooner or later……Dodgers will easily absorb his downfall though, if that ends up being the case.
Yea, poor Kershaw n his fading abilities. Put up 2.46 ERA n 3.7 WAR last season. 1st ballet HOFr. Dare u to look up his lifetime stats, they’re mesmerizing. Except4 rookie yr his highest ERA was 3.55, nxt highest 3.03, the 13 other seasons he pitched all ERAs under 3, n 3 of those yrs it was under 2. He may not be king of the hill anymore but he adds to an already rich pitching staff. Go Dodgers !
Regular season HOF’er.
No. Just a HOF’er period.
Greatest LHP of all time IMO.
No need, nando. Your reply was the hate reply.
Well we shall see what he has after he returns later in the 2024 season. Thankfully Kershaw is not the type of guy who is going to stick around to just collect a paycheck. He won’t hurt the team.
Do the Dodgers have a 60-man roster or something?
Per the article he’s immediately going on the 60-day IL. No limit there.
Technically he has to go on the 40 man first and then he can get transfered to 60 day, but whatever, not a big deal.
“60 man roster”..20 members of the Dodger’s roster are “deferred” until 2028. As such, they currently have an active and legal 40 man roster.
I wish your comment was funny but you went with a lazy overused joke. Nice one
61
…groundhog day
As reliable as the sun coming up in the morning, Kershaw is a Dodger.
When he gets activated, along with May, this will be the deepest Dodger staff since, at least. the 1970’s.
Yeah I don’t know about that. You know as well as I do by the time Kershaw and May are ready, Glassnow and Paxton will be on the injured list. With the injury history of that staff I don’t think it would surprise anyone if the Dodgers have to go get 1-2 starters at the deadline yet again this year.
And most injury prone ever.
Classy show of faith by the Dodgers. Kershaw has certainly earned it.
Cool. You’ll probably want him to pitch opening day and game 1 or a game 7 in October because he “earned it.”
um he’s out until midseason genius
Hence “you’ll probably want him to pitch.” Imbecile.
Feel better putting others down bruh?
nando
Muted, troll
Kershaw pitching game 1 was more indicative of how bad that starting rotation was at the end of last season. Miller was best pitcher but just a rookie. Lynn not reliable. Doubt Kershaw would be at the top of rotation for 2024 playoffs but with reduced strain from shortened season he could be more effective than past playoffs. Maybe even out of the pen. Start a flamethrower like Glasnow or Miller and bring in Kershaw for change of pace.
Lynn was awful when he pitched. Had that good 4 game stretch after he 1st came over then he was gassed 4last month of season. Was spooked when pundits n even this site said there may be reunion w/Lynn n Dodgers4 2024. Thank u baseball God’s 4squishing that deal.
From whence did this nando character come?
@ dave
Nando sounds like a Padres fan faking it on a dodgers thread…
No surprise.
Good move he can replace Paxton mid season
I would guess he finally would have gone back home to texas
Lol wheres texas degrom whatever now… HAHAHA
texas already has 3-4 pitchers coming back midseason. they need healthy starters for the 1st half.
I’m guessing it’s 1 year, 50 bucks, with $18M (prorated for time spent on active roster) deferred for 30 years.
Hey, a deferral joke! Didn’t see that coming.
Boy , neither did I. That tecjug fellow is really hilarious.
I’m not a Dodgers fan but Kershaw is one of the players I respect most. Don’t say this about many players but he deserves to retire a Dodger. They owe him imho
Classy post….thank you!
And the world is good again…
Welcome back Kersh.
I’m not surprised at all that the Dodgers re-signed him. It’s a good thing. We need more players like Kershaw. 1 team for an entire career.
Didn’t think he would let that playoff disaster be his last Dodger appearance.
Just having Kersh in the clubhouse makes the team better. Let the haters hate.
Which seasons were you in the clubhouse?
Is this Puig?
Get your DICKtionary and look up euphemism.
Mojo
I know what a euphemism is without looking it up, and…what are you talking about?
filihok
take your time. read for comprehesion. Was responding to holycoward, not you. scroll up.
Mojo
I read the entire conversation in this public comments section. Nothing is a euphemism that I can see
Grill free to explain what you thought was a euphemism.
Maybe I’m wrong
filihok: well until we get to English class next…I was using “clubhouse” as a general reference for being on the team, in the dugout, on the team plane, etc. I am happy to stand corrected if I used the term euphemism incorrectly. Meanwhile I will grill freely as you suggest.
You 100% used the term euphemism incorrectly. I’m thinking you mean… synecdoche? A euphemism is when you use a word that sounds nicer than what you actually mean. Calling a clubhouse a euphemism makes zero sense. Even then you’re initial response to filihok is condusing.
mea culpa
“You need to have camaraderie in the clubhouse. Wherever you’re working, be it a baseball team or at a business, you want to walk in there and say, ‘Geez, it’s great to be at work. Let’s go get ’em,’ as opposed to walking in there knowing there’s going to be a commotion.” – Former GM Pat Gillick
In this metaphorical context, the clubhouse symbolizes more than just a physical space. So the point was well made, just the wrong fancy word was selected. 🙂
Mojo
Nope, that’s not a euphemism.
Maybe try a tionary, dick.
I do bring ping pong to the clubhouse. I’m a ping pinging fool. Call me Forrest Gump.
As a Giants fan I am more than comfortable saying CK is my favorite Dodger and glad to see him back in the Blue and White. Can’t wait for him to blow it in the playoffs again!
Well your team won’t be there.
You know full well your Dodgers won’t be either.
In the playoffs? They will most certainly make it to the playoffs. Everything after that is a crapshoot.
Do you even pay attention at all? Dodgers have been in the playoffs 10 of the last 11 years.
@ B-rocker
They’ve won the division 10 of the last 11 years. But made the playoffs every year in that span. (2021 being the lone exception).
Is that supposed to clarify what I wrote? I was responding to holy cow
B-rocker
It looks like JCL10 was clarifying that your point to HolyCow was even better and stronger than you made it sound.
No harm, no foul, by anyone
Point taken Manny.
Well, at least it won’t be against the Giants. There’s that!
Him being only 36 shows you how good Justin Verlander is at 41
Kershaw, Scherzer and Verlander – whatever you think of them for 2024 – all three clearly are among the top fifteen to forty pitchers career-wise of the past 75 years. That is pretty amazing.
@manny
Take those 3 and then add in greinke. Having 4 legendary starting pitchers in the league at the same time is something we are all taking for granted.
Once those 4 retire, there may be only one hall of famer SP left. (cole)
I guess the nostalgia is there in this signing.
His K% & BB% dropped about 3 points each in 2023, compared to his career. 18.6% K-BB% is the lowest of his career.
While his ERA of 2.46 was decent, when you look under the hood, his defense essentially saved him 6 runs, which would have raised the ERA to 2.87, Since 2016, he has greatly benefited from the team’s RA9def saving runs.
2023 xERA of 3.74 and FRA of 4.17 seem more realistic to what we should expect from his pitching ability. Given that, he’s still a decent 3-4 rotation guy.
His numbers are affected by defense, just like every other pitcher, but why would you expect that to regress? It’ll be the same defense behind him this year. He hit 3.7 bWAR, top 20 in the league, in only 130 innings. You could argue the Dodgers are overpaying to preserve his legacy, but they’re still expecting him to pitch and pitch well.
defense should actually be a little better. Mookie should be a world better at 2nd base, Muncy says he spent the offseason working on his defense. I won’t claim its gonna be a world beater defense, but it looks to be at least a slightly better than average defense.
@math
I never said the defense would regress. I just said he’s benefited from the team’s RA9def. Not all team defense benefits the pitcher, though. Check out RA9def for your favourite pitcher. Kofax and Ryan both pitched on defenses that cost them runs, meaning their ERA should have been lower some of those seasons.
You didn’t imply the defense would regress, you implied Kershaw’s numbers would. He benefited last year and will likely benefit again. I’m fully aware that not all defense is beneficial, I don’t know why you felt the need to say that.
RE math and OY
People should really stop using ERA (period) to measure pitcher performance.
First, it’s a team stat, not an individual stat, as this conversation shows.
Second, it’s a made up stat based on what someone thought should have happened and not on what actually happened.
Kershaw, in 2023, pitched in a way that we’d expect 4 +/- .25 runs (assuming the numbers posted here are correct) per 9 innings to score. Part of the reason that fewer than that many runs actually scored is defens. Part is luck – largely sequencing. And part is probably something we can’t measure about Kershaw’s guile or Grit or whatever.
@math
Because I’m giving you a full analysis of his performance and expected performance range this coming year. I only pointed out that last year, his ERA should have been slightly higher as he benefited from the team defense. However, his actual expected ERA last year sat around 4.
@filihok
I don’t use ERA to evaluate the player. It’s one of the most useless stats that keeps hanging around. I point out that there is an actual discrepancy between it and his actual FRA. He outperformed his FRA last year and we would have expected a 4+ ERA. Expect some regression but to understand that his team defense also helped so that FRA might be slightly lower in the mid-3s instead.
Verlander is the only active pitcher with a higher WAR than Kershaw so no argument.
High WAR, AND hotter wife…
The GOAT returns!
The road to 3K begins today!
yay.
He’ll be back to play into September.
HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA where are all the geniuses who SWORE he would sign with the Rangers????
Waiting until next year so they can make that silly prediction again.
Just a hunch but I’m thinking the only reason he hasn’t retired yet is because he wants to make it to 3,000 punchies. At the pace he’s going they won’t have that opportunity next year.
Sorry can’t agree with you there. I don’t see him a record or round numbers chaser at all. He’s a competitor who wants to play so long as he can help his team win. You can also bet he didn’t want to end his career on such a low note.
I think it can be a little bit of both. While he is often modest, Kershaw has acknowledged the significance when he passed other greats in strikeouts. But he likely also sees a team that is a lock to make the playoffs and a great opportunity for team success even if he takes his time to get healthy and ready. If it is both, I see the strikeouts being 10%, and not ending on a bad note 10%, and 80% just a chance to be part of an amazing team with great chances for success.
Kershaw is proud warrior n wasn’t gonna go out on that sour note. Just hope his surgery was success n he comes back healthy. Shoulders are tricky, not like success rate of TJS. Just him bein in clubhouse is difference maker. He wasn’t gonna miss this magical season @Chavez ravine. Go Dodgers !
Its not really their fault. Chokeshaw has been linked to the Rangers plenty and he dragged this out as much as he could. Turns out that Chokeshaw was just dragging this out as much as he could for the attention, unsurprisingly.
Why do you say he was dragging this out? He is out for the first part of the year, so where is the rush to sign? By waiting until now, the Dodgers don’t have to remove anyone from the 40 man roster. It had nothing to do with attention.
@ alvo (or Davey) or Blackpink… troll
Why do you hate Kershaw so much? Clearly you are not a Dodgers fan or even a true baseball fan.
Completely unbased accusations. The reason he waited this long is so he could be added to the 60 day IL almost immediately and not take up a roster spot throughout the offseason.
Ultimate team player, like his new teammate Ohtani. That’s even b4 all the amazing things his foundation has accomplished w/Kershaw bein hands on helping children in 3rd world communities. Dudes a stud.
Doyers making all the moves this off-season
YES !!! Kershaw wasn’t goin anywhere but LA. Gonna be a fun season. Go Dodgers !
They have a lot of potential great pitchers who are massive injury risks… Buehler, Glasnow, Paxton, Kershaw. At least one or two of the first 3 will be healthy I’m guessing. Hopefully Kershaw joins and is strong starting in July or August. Will be an absolute beast of a team no matter what, pretty much.
Augusto
And maybe even Dustin May coming back late in the season.
Interesting, that the Dodgers didn’t sign any of the 90-95 ERA+ 160+ innings FAs this offseason, instead piling risk on risk.
They must think their tier of Miller, Sheehan et al is better than those guys. The one thing we’ve seen, year after year, is that they will not commit to below average players. They always seem to have someone in reserve.
Didn’t sign any? You mean besides the #1 pitching FA in Yamamoto?
I don’t necessarily think they believe their stable is better than any of the other guys, just that the value is better. I said this in another thread but this past season Miller, Sheehan, and Grove combined for over 40 starts and they still won 100 games. Nobody on the staff had more than 130IP and they still won 100 games.
Buehler, Yamamoto, Glasnow, Miller, Kershaw, and Paxton are all candidates to get playoff starts, without any of them having spent the summer carrying the team for 200 innings. Odds of them all being healthy in October are next to zero, but odds of 3 or 4 of them being healthy are pretty good.
The Dodgers’ rookies in 2023
70 games, 52 starts, 328.2 innings, 6.9% BB, 23.3% K, 111 ERA-, 97 FIP-, 94 xFIP-
They were very solid. Basically league average
They signed Yoshinobu and kept Yarborough. The kids may get the chance to start over Yarborough but they have Ryan as a backup plan.
I am almost a fan of Sheehan.
Cubs never have a problem with him
Seems like 10-4 with a 2.55 ERA against them is pretty good. He’s even pitched well against them in the post season.
vtadave : Nice !
Amazing how people like Wheeler Deeler throw stuff like this out there thinking they won’t be challenged.
Mmmm we rocked him
Dodgers can’t sign enough inured players. Didn’t work for dumpster divin Theo.
At least Kershaw is classy and admits he’s injured, unlike some players – hammels or any boras client.
First ballot hof Kershaw at some point.
Unfortunately, he didn’t admit he was injured when he took the hill last October.
I can neither confirm nor deny knowing what I didn’t know when I didn’t know what I did not know, when I knew what I did not know,at the time,I was, or was not, injured.
We all knew he was injured. They even talked about him going out there because they had no one else.
Was it ever even a question of re-signing with the Dodgers? He will retire a Dodger and be one of the best pitchers of his generation.
The inevitable “will he sign with his hometown Rangers?” has been coming up for years now.
He clearly understands his legacy as a Dodger. I’ve never doubted he’d return to the Dodgers and only the Dodgers these past couple of years. But the rumors persist, perhaps without any validity.
Even a stopped clock is right more often than these predictions.
If analog, and not digital.
Ha. That’s correct, a stopped digital clock is never right. But isn’t a stopped digital clock a perfect analogy for the predictions of Kershaw signing with the Rangers? Never right!
True that
Good for Dodgers fans. Like the guys that stay with one team throughout. Rare anymore.
The new Saperstein Globetrotter production ???? Well, just icing on the cake. Are heads exploding in the N.Y. baseball scene ? They will be watched, and the cheers on the road when they lose will be UGE ! Sure they won’t lose much probably but it will be fun when they do.
They need him why? He’s hurt more than he pitches.
But he’s pretty damn good when he does pitches.
Ohtani – starter can’t pitch injury
Goslin – starter can’t pitch injury
Buehler – starter can’t pitch yet rehabbing
urias suspended , no longer with team
Paxton and Glasnow signed but injury history
100 + wins but most starters fell injured in September.
It’s crazy to think how good and deep their staff might be in a year or two, if a couple of those guys get and stay healthy. Yamamoto, Ohtani, Glasnow, Goslin, Buehler… plus others. Ridiculous.
* Gonsolin
are you sayin wait til next year for the dodgers already?
Add May and Frasso to the list
Uriás is a free agent. He has no connection to the dodgers anymore
Just like the Yankees and Dodgers they keep their players.
Aren’t those the two franchises with the most revenue?
Might have something to do with it
Kershaw is a first ballot HOF’er on the field and off.
Glad he’s back in blue.
Easily one of the greatest post season chokers in the history of the game,
@Sadler And Verlander is awful in the World Series. Yet they’re two of the greatest pitchers in their generation of players.
@neoncactus It’s truly amazing—almost as if a great deal of luck is involved in short series against very good teams.
194 innings of 4.49 ERA ball is a lot more than luck.
Agree – but it is not choking, see my other post. Most really good pitchers from this generation have higher eras in the post-season. Look at guys like Max Fried, Tyler Glasnow and Yu Davish. Kerhsaw only stands out because he is average in the post-season and utterly brilliant in the regular season.
Kersh must have slept with his wife. Talk about choking
Bauer is the only former Dodger pitcher with a history of choking
Truly shocking turn of events….
the trolls are alive and well here. sad to see so many miserable people, but not surprising.
Sigh. He’s an all time great but seen this from a mile away. Awkward scenario because you have to keep him and he’ll pitch great for 100 innings then stink it up in the postseason.
As a Giants fan, I have nothing but respect for Kershaw. I sat front row at Oracle by the visitors bullpen a few years back and got to watch him warm up before his start. It was pretty awesome.
@Jack Hoffman That’s fun, eh?
They never look quite as fast on tv as they do when you’re sitting a few feet away. The ball just whips by, and when it hits the catcher’s mitt the sound is explosive.
Yeah I was stoked. One of the cooler things you’ll get to see as a fan because I was only a few feet from Kershaw. Before they moved the bullpens.
Kershaw not a Texas Ranger.
Hate us more.
This team was not complete without Kershaw, Thank you so much.
I wonder if Kershaw is willing to become a reliever this year.
Love seeing him staying with the Dodgers. Can’t imagine him in any other uniform.
I wonder how much they signed him for? With the 110% CBT, its going to cost a bunch for him to suit up for 2-3 months. Well worth it for all the Dodger fans I am sure.
Great, now Clayton Chokeshaw can blow more playoff game(s) for them.
Subtraction by addition.
As a Christian, blowing it when it really counts is what keeps me pure.
What is the difference between a 1 Year Contract with a Player Option and a 2 Year Contract with an Opt-Out after the 1st season?
Who’s on 1st ?
They are basically the same. The money is considered guaranteed in both instances for luxury tax purposes. Player has the option one way or another to opt out of the second year.
#NeverARanger
What’s even more impressive is that Kersh is a starter Rivera was not
Kershaw (unlike many modern sport stars) remains faithful to the organisation that drafted , paid him well and treated him honourably. Shame others don’t have club/team loyalty!
Thanks for the nice words. Truth is, I’m really only coming back for the free Dodger Dogs. Cheers!
Frs
Counterpoint, no one should have loyalty to their employer.
Fili
Maybe Andrew Toles …..
Rare that an org looks out for a former player who is no longer an asset and was never a star
MbMVP
I get what you’re saying. And what LA has done for Toles is great
But I think the idea of loyalty is flawed on its face.
If another team, or any type of company, came along and offered Toles an Ohtani contract, he should definitely thank the Dodgers and sign on the dotted line.
What someone has done in the past only counts so much compared against the future
Though a LOT of injury questions I feel bad for Sheehan. If he doesn’t win a spot out of spring training he is doomed to the pen or AAA come midseason. He has to hope to be traded to get a shot.
The Dodgers potentially could have an embarrassment of pitching riches after the All-Star break.
Goose. Sheehan will have an excellent opportunity to prove himself. If he performs, he won’t be.in AAA. I believe in his talent and he’s going to be just fine.
In order to defer money for payroll shenanigans like the Dodgers, you have to actually spend enough money on top-tier free agents to consider doing so. Tell your broke b***h owner to sell the team
They are paying him $22 this year and 25 million in 2038
Hey, don’t let all my secrets out!
Why not? They signed just about every player available this year.
And the funny part about it. They still won’t win the World Series, or maybe even not make it to the World Series.
What are tonight’s lotto numbers?
Welcome back Kershaw….wouldn’t want it any other way
You’re welcome papi.
I want you all to know…since I blow in the playoffs during full seasons, I’m coming back in August…get another short season trophy under my belt. Also, I’ll be exclusively tossing the ball with my right arm. You’re welcome!
Hey, Big Time Timmy Jim is better. He has THREE full season rings. I’d trade my right arm for three real championships!
KRA
Speaking of the freak(s):
So you think Robert Horry is better than the Greek freak?
Baseball and basketball are team games.
I believe the children are our future.
Teach them well and let them lead the way.Show them all the beauty they possess inside.Give them a sense of pride to make it easier. Let the children’s laughter remind us how we used to be
Just beat it …. LOL
Finally a deal I saw coming.
Don’t say October. Let the curse continue!!
Dodgers
Only
Do
Good
Every
Regular
Season!!!!
The most obvious and pathetic crawling back to a team imaginable, sign up for the easy ring again. This team just won’t stop. Who is left? I’m sure they’ll buy Snell and Bellinger and Montgomery too. This is shaping up to be a nightmare decade ahead.
Another day, another Dodgers superstar purchase. This team is so pathetic.
lol you ok? It’s $10 million.
In other news, pitchers and catchers begin to report this week and next. Can we all agree to rejoice in that?
I can’t believe he only has 210 career wins, he has been so outstanding for so long, on such good teams, I looked it up wondering if he was going to push to 300, I guess that won’t happen. Lets you know how hard it is to reach that milestone.
A player nobody is talking much about is Brandon Woodruff. I know he is a year away and not an innings horse, but that dude is an absolute stud when healthy. Somebody should take a flier on him and invest in him for 2025-28, at a steep discount compared to what he would get if healthy.
Tigers too “economical” to give the fans what they deserve.
He’s obviously a shoo-in for the HOF, but I’m sure he wants his 3,000 strikeouts.
Last time he threw 200 innings was 9 years ago. A shame he hasn’t been healthier, he might have a shot at 300 wins and other milestones.
These comments! When did the Dodgers become more despised than the Astros?
Success brings hate.
I don’t think it is success so much as it is the spending.
I have despised the Dodgers since the 70’s. But relished the 1983 year when they won 11 out of 12 regular season games against the Phillies Wheez kids and then lost to those old Phillies players in 4 games in the playoffs.
And then relished the 2008 year again! Long live the Dodgers crushing the regular seasons, only to choke in the playoffs.
I remember when he was a rookie,.McCord embattled, I encouraged the Tigers to get him.and offer cash, offer that outfielder…. Everyone got on my case about him being an untested, unproven rookie despite having an awesome debut…..
2-3 months later MLB prohibited McCord from making any deals…..he.needed.the cash, we needed a pitcher….. so quick to call the SF a duffus….
Yeah, I.read.the LA Times every once in a while….it.had.the right information, at the right time….everyone else was apparently reading the Free Press…..
Once again, as usual, the fate of the world set off course because everyone wanted to put down and insult the SF……
Kudos to Kershaw’s great great grandchildren.
Who got this one wrong in the free agent contest?
He wasn’t a top 50 FA
I guess the Dodgers have money to waste. They might as well toss the money on the 405 Freeway.
Unfortunately, the 405 Freeway cannot pose as a starting pitcher.
The 405 had a better season than Lynn last year.
Great postseason pitcher ever. Hehehehehe
Even though I am an Astro fan, I am very happy for Dodger fans. It’s good to see the franchise respect this man’s body of work.
“He’s a ten-time All-Star with five NL ERA titles, three Cy Young Awards and a National League MVP Award under his belt.”
Left out one important piece of information – He has done all of these without getting help of PED.
and just this one arm surgery.
Postseason record please when it counts
what is Mike Trout’s post season record ? Bagwell, Biggio, Bonds…..there are several hall of fame players that absolutely tanked in the post season.
Funny, I don’t remember Bonds getting into the hall…
And heads explode all across the country, right on schedule.
Dang, he’s getting lance Lynn money. Dodgers are unfair lol. Expected at least 25 mil over 2
Probably he won’t be available to pitch until August this year, and 2025 is a player option.
So it looks like the real reason they didn’t extend the QO is they simply didn’t think he was worth that kind of money.
#freeBauer2024
lFHSD
Muted
@filihok Who exactly was talking to you?
Sooo happy with Kershaw being back with LA. This means that once again they will choke in October. Yay!!
Bye Bye Goodbye. your team sure as hell won’t even have a chance choke in the postseason. tough to do when you finish 4th.
This guy has been underpaid his entire career.
Verlander: 81 bWAR, $429m career earnings (including next season’s vesting option)
Scherzer: 74 bWar, $374m career earnings
Kershaw: 77 bWar, $301m career earnings (including 2024 and 2025 @ $5m)
@deGrom/Langford- LOL! California isn’t paying Kershaw. The Dodgers are. Man, you really have an ax to grind, don’t ya?
I don’t care. Good luck.
Typical Dodgers just playing with funny money offering whatever they want to whoever they can, whatever players want to hoor (sic) themselves out to come to LA to sign up for an easy ring can join. It’s an open door and open wallet policy in the phoniest city in America.
What’s one level below moron?
Gee Mickey, you are such a sad little puppy.
Kind of joking but As an experiment why doesn’t Kershaw (or other pitchers) try throwing right handed. (or their non dominant arm)
He might be able to pitch another 10 years.
That arm has a lot less wear and tear.
Also there is also throwing a knuckleball that is NOT as easy a pitch to learn. I don’t think anyone in the league currently throws it.
He has already made Life Changing money for himself and family
Most pitchers would probably be athletic enough to learn to pitch with their non-dominant arm. However, it takes a long time to build muscle memory and arm strength and develop good mechanics. There’s also the matter of the brain not cooperating when you’ve done the same thing for so long.
mlb.com/news/billy-wagner-used-to-throw-right-hand…
I think Walker B is the Key if they can get him back pitching like he was then that rotation is real dangerous. 2025 they are definitely set with Ohtani but I will come to to either the health of Walker B are a significant free agent at the break imho. Dodgers stood no shot last year with the rotation they had entering the playoffs