As the top free agents continue to linger on the market, an increasing number of fans have begun to inquire — on social media, in the comments at MLBTR, in questions to the MLBTR Podcast and in our regular chats here at MLBTR — about the possibility of any of the top four pivoting to a short-term deal. MLBTR’s Darragh McDonald recently outlined the potential pitfalls in that scenario for lefty Blake Snell, whose stock isn’t likely to ever be higher than it is right now coming off his second career Cy Young win at 31 years of age. Jordan Mongtomery, likewise, probably won’t have a better platform than this past year’s postseason heroics. Like Snell, he’d be 32 next winter, which won’t do his earning potential any favors. Matt Chapman is also heading into his age-31 season.
If there’s one of the “big four” who might be best-suited to go with a short-term deal, it’s the youngest of the bunch: Cody Bellinger. At 28 years of age (29 in July), a return trip to free agency for Bellinger would come at a time when he’d still be positioned as one of the youngest names on the market. A short-term deal for Bellinger would also allow him to hit free agency next winter without a qualifying offer — he rejected one from the Cubs in November, and players can only receive one QO in their career — and it could provide him the opportunity to “prove” that his 2023 output wasn’t a fluke.
After a pair of injury-ruined 2021-22 seasons, Bellinger was non-tendered by the Dodgers. He’d undergone shoulder surgery following the 2020 season, and agent Scott Boras has unsurprisingly contended that Bellinger was never fully healthy during that pair of dreary seasons in ’21-’22, when he slashed a combined .193/.256/.355 in 900 plate appearances. The Cubs bet $17.5MM on Bellinger bouncing back to something closer to his prior Rookie of the Year and NL MVP form and were rewarded with a huge .306/.356/.525 slash with 26 homers and 20 steals.
It was an outstanding resurgence but not one without its red flags. Bellinger’s 15.6% strikeout rate was a career-low, but his 7.2% walk rate was the second-lowest of his career. More concerning to interested teams was Bellinger’s batted-ball profile. Despite his success at the plate, Bellinger ranked in the 27th percentile or lower among MLB hitters in terms of average exit velocity, hard-hit rate and barrel rate. At his peak, Bellinger was a hard-contact juggernaut who ranked among the league leaders in virtually every Statcast category of note. The opposite was true in 2023, and there are likely some teams who wonder whether he can continue to produce at such lofty levels in the absence of premium (or even league-average) quality of contact.
It puts Bellinger in a precarious situation. He surely feels he’s back to his MVP form, but players coming off such a dominant performance rarely have to take a one-year “prove-it” deal. Bellinger and Boras surely feel he’s already “proven it” and that the 2021-22 can now be framed as injury-marred outliers. Teams are clearly wary of regression, if not all the way to the miserable 2021-22 output than to something decidedly less than his 2023 output.
It’s not an identical situation to the one faced by Carlos Correa in free agency two winters ago, but there are some parallels. Both were atypically young free agents and were regarded as strong defenders at premium positions. Both had won Rookie of the Year early in their careers. Neither was at his offensive peak upon reaching free agency. Correa didn’t enter the 2021-22 offseason with the Boras Corporation representing him, but he changed agencies and hired Boras midway through the offseason.
Correa’s eventual contract — a three-year, $105.3MM deal with the Twins — shocked baseball, both due to the landing spot and to the fact that top-ranked free agents rarely settle for such a short-term arrangement. He had a pair of opt-outs baked into the contract, allowing him two more bites at the free agent apple.
A similar structure, logically speaking, could provide Bellinger some protection against another injury or regression while still rewarding his massive rebound season with a top-tier annual value. There’s some merits and risk for both parties, even if it’s not the type of deal he envisioned upon bouncing back to such lofty heights with the Cubs.
The problem Bellinger might run into, however, is finding the 2024 equivalent of the 2022 Twins. Minnesota was a clear postseason hopeful aiming to win now but also had plenty of payroll room at that late stage of the offseason. The Twins were also nowhere near the luxury tax threshold. It looked like an ideal short-term partnership (though it’s obviously since turned into at least a seven-year match).
For Bellinger, the landscape looks different. Right now, there are only five Major League teams whose projected payroll is more than $20MM south of their 2023 payroll levels. Two — the White Sox and Rockies — aren’t aiming to contend and aren’t likely to put down a lucrative short-term offer for Bellinger. A third, the Padres, is only facing such a gap between current spending and 2023 spending because they’ve actively been working to cut payroll by as much as $50MM. Signing Bellinger isn’t in the cards, barring a major last-minute philosophical shift. That’s particularly true when considering that the Padres are $22MM shy of the luxury threshold; signing Bellinger would put them right back into the tax penalty when it’s clearly been a goal to reset that level.
The luxury tax is a key issue here, too. Signing Bellinger short-term will likely require a high annual value and multiple opt-outs. For a team that’s already in luxury territory, that means a potentially exorbitant overall price. As such, when looking for Bellinger landing spots on a short-term deal, it’s best to break the 30 teams up into a few different categories. Let’s run through them…
Current Luxury Tax Payors
Phillies: Over the past week, there’s been plenty of speculation about the Phillies jumping at one of the top four free agents on a short-term deal. That’s primarily due to president of baseball ops Dave Dombrowski’s comment that he can’t promise that no further additions are coming because an unexpected opportunity can always present itself. But the Phils are a third-time payor who already have a projected $261MM of luxury obligations, putting them firmly into the second tier. Even a conservative estimate of a $25MM AAV on a short-term deal would mean paying a 62% tax on the contract’s first $16MM and a 95% tax on the final $9MM. In other words, it’d cost the Phillies around $18.5MM in taxes on top of Bellinger’s actual salary. Assuming an evenly distributed $25MM, that’s a total of $43MM in just 2024 to sign Bellinger. And, again, on a short-term deal the AAV will likely be much higher. Correa’s AAV was $35.1MM.
Astros: Houston’s $254MM of projected luxury obligations is a near-perfect match with Philadelphia. Unlike the Phillies, the Astros are only a first-time offender right now. They’d owe a 20% tax on the first $2MM of Bellinger’s deal, a 32% tax on the next $20MM and a 62.5% tax thereafter. Bellinger would push them into the third tier of penalization, meaning their top pick in the 2024 draft would be pushed back 10 spots. The Astros already have a record-high payroll. Signing Bellinger for even a $25MM AAV would cost around $8.675MM in taxes on top of his salary, require the forfeiture of their second-highest draft pick (by virtue of the QO) and knock their top pick back by 10 spots. Ouch.
Rangers: If Texas were going to push further into luxury territory than their current projection of $243MM (just $6MM over the first threshold), it’d surely be to sign a pitcher — likely Montgomery. The outfield is already largely set with Evan Carter, Leody Taveras and Adolis Garcia, with top prospect Wyatt Langford blitzing toward the majors. GM Chris Young has all but said he’s done signing Major League free agents. This match isn’t happening.
Blue Jays: The Jays are about $11MM over the first luxury barrier. They’re a second-time payor. That’d mean a 30% tax on the first $9MM or so of Bellinger’s deal, plus a 42.5% tax on the next $20MM and a 72.5% tax on anything thereafter (in addition to the same draft losses outlined for the Astros). GM Ross Atkins has said any notable addition would likely require subtracting elsewhere on the roster. The Jays could fit Bellinger into the mix by giving George Springer and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. more time at designated hitter, but Atkins’ comments make this hard to see. Just for illustrative purposes, a $25MM AAV on a Bellinger deal would cost the Jays $9.5MM in taxes, while jumping into Correa range would mean about $15.5MM in taxes (on top of his 2024 salary).
Braves: Atlanta is rolling with a Jarred Kelenic–Michael Harris II-Ronald Acuña Jr. outfield, with Matt Olson at first base and Marcell Ozuna at designated hitter. They don’t fit even from a roster vantage point, and they’re already $33MM over the tax line anyhow. It’s interesting to note that between the contracts they ate and the associated taxes, they wound up spending about $26MM to take on Kelenic, which isn’t all that far off from what Bellinger might end up costing — but that was much earlier in the offseason.
Yankees, Mets, Dodgers: The Yankees don’t really have room in their outfield, and the Dodgers/Bellinger relationship might not be the healthiest at the moment anyhow. Regardless, all three of these clubs are third-time payors who are already into the top luxury tier, meaning any additional dollars spent come with a 110% tax. Signing Bellinger to a $25MM AAV deal would mean $27.5MM in taxes. Bump that to $30MM AAV and you’re at $33MM in taxes. A $35MM AAV matching Correa comes with $38.5MM in taxes. All of that is on top of any salary for Bellinger.
Relatively Close to the Luxury Tax
Cubs: The incumbents! It’s not the spiciest take to suggest it, but this still seems like the most logical fit. The Cubs obviously wouldn’t have to forfeit any draft picks to sign Bellinger, since they’re the ones who made him the QO (although they would give up the right to receive a compensation pick). He’d “block” Pete Crow-Armstrong in center field or Michael Busch at first base, but perhaps only for a year. And, with injuries, both PCA and Busch would very likely still get their opportunities. The Cubs are $29MM shy of the luxury tax threshold and have $195MM in actual payroll commitments. Bellinger would push them well past the $203MM franchise-record mark and perhaps just over the first luxury tier, but should that matter? This is the cleanest and best fit, and a short-term arrangement should only add to the appeal.
Red Sox: Like so many of the teams on this list, if the Sox were to make one more big splash, it’d probably be on pitching (likely Montgomery). Boston is $39MM from the tax line and sits at $177MM in actual payroll commitments. They have the financial wherewithal to do this, but they also have an outfield of Tyler O’Neill, Jarren Duran, Wilyer Abreu and Ceddanne Rafaela — with DH Masataka Yoshida also in the fold. This doesn’t feel viable.
Angels: The Angels’ focus should be on pitching, but owner Arte Moreno has historically balked at long-term deals for starting pitchers. The Halos have Taylor Ward and Mike Trout in the outfield, but Mickey Moniak and Jo Adell aren’t the most exciting options for the remaining spot. Moniak hit well in 2023 but did so with a .397 BABIP and 35% strikeout rate that both scream for regression. Adell was once a top prospect but is out of options and hasn’t established himself. Moreno said this week the team will likely operate on a lesser budget in 2024, but we’ve seen time and again that he’s drawn to star hitters and Bellinger on a short-term deal would fit that mold. With $188MM in tax obligations, the Angels could sign Bellinger and still avoid reaching the threshold.
D-backs: Arizona is already at a new record payroll ($142MM) and is surprisingly within striking distance of the $237MM tax line ($189MM). Bellinger wouldn’t put them over, but signing him would require a level of aggression we’ve not seen from the Snakes since they shocked the world with their Zack Greinke signing nearly a decade ago. The Diamondbacks don’t need outfielders, necessarily, but center fielder Alek Thomas hasn’t proven himself at the plate. On a short-term deal, could GM Mike Hazen feel opportunistic?
Padres: The entire baseball world has learned to never say never with regard to San Diego president of baseball operations A.J. Preller, but in an offseason where they Padres have been trying to cut payroll by as much as $50MM and have pronounced questions at the back of the rotation, this feels like a bridge too far. If the Friars were to trade Ha-Seong Kim, pick up some kind of arm in that deal and then reallocate some of the savings to Bellinger, you could almost squint and see it. Typing this feels crazy, but that’s often how I feel when writing about Padres moves that actually did happen as well. The Padres are $25MM shy of the tax line at the moment. Signing Bellinger likely puts them over for a third straight year, meaning a 30% tax on a portion of his deal.
Giants: San Francisco already signed a center fielder to a nine-figure deal. They now have an all-lefty outfield and substantial questions in the rotation. It does feel like the Giants have the capacity for one more big move — they’re $33MM from their franchise-record payroll and $24MM from the luxury tax threshold — but if they make that move it’ll probably be on a pitcher. Still, they could probably sign Bellinger short-term and only cross into tax territory by $5-8MM. And since they didn’t cross the CBT threshold in ’23, they’d only be hit with a 20% tax.
Nowhere Near the Luxury Tax
Royals: Let’s get weird! I don’t think anyone seriously expects the Royals to sign Bellinger … but no one seriously expected the Twins to sign Correa. They also didn’t expect the Royals to sign Bobby Witt Jr. to a $288.78MM extension, or to spend a (so far) combined $109.5MM on seven big league deals in free agency this winter. But here we are! This would be a shocking fit — more shocking than the Twins signing Correa — but take a look at the Kansas City outfield candidates: MJ Melendez, Kyle Isbel, Drew Waters, Nelson Velazquez, Hunter Renfroe, Dairon Blanco. Bellinger is an immediate upgrade over every member of that group. The Royals currently project for a $115MM payroll and $161MM of luxury obligations. They’re around $28MM shy of their franchise-record payroll, which came back in 2017 and under a different owner.
Mariners: The M’s have been operating under TV-related budget constraints. President of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto has never signed a free agent hitter to a contract larger or longer than Mitch Garver’s two-year, $24MM deal since taking the reins in Seattle. This doesn’t seem particularly plausible barring a late change in approach from ownership. Perhaps the allure of signing a star like Bellinger short-term would be enough to spur that tactical shift. It’s unlikely, but we’re talking about dark horses here, aren’t we?
Twins: Like the Mariners, the Twins have been working to reduce payroll. Their current projection of $123.5MM is right around the bottom end of their reported $125-140MM target range for payroll. Minnesota has been open to adding a right-handed-hitting outfielder and further rotation depth. They did this with Correa, so let’s not rule them out entirely. But if they were to, say, trade Kyle Farmer to free up $6.3MM and then make one more notable addition, a pitcher like Montgomery seems much more plausible than another lefty-swinging outfielder.
Orioles: If the Orioles make another big splash after Corbin Burnes, it seems likely to be on a pitcher. Their outfield is set with Austin Hays, Cedric Mullins and Anthony Santander, plus top prospects like Colton Cowser and Heston Kjerstad on the MLB doorstep.
Cardinals, Brewers: The Cardinals already have more outfielders than they know what to do with, and Bellinger isn’t going to displace Paul Goldschmidt at first base. Milwaukee has a similar situation in the outfield, and they’ve got Rhys Hoskins at first base.
Tigers: President of baseball operations Scott Harris suggested this week he’s not inclined to sign another “everyday-type” hitter, instead preferring to give legitimate looks to the team’s young hitters. With Riley Greene, Parker Meadows, Kerry Carpenter and veteran Mark Canha in the outfield/DH mix, plus Spencer Torkelson at first base, there isn’t a great roster fit here anyhow.
Pirates, Marlins, Reds, Guardians, Rays: Five of the lowest-payroll clubs in the game. It seems safe to say no one from this group is going to seriously pursue Bellinger, even on a short-term deal.
Nationals, A’s, Rockies, White Sox: All four of these teams are in some form of rebuild/reset. The A’s certainly aren’t going to spend this type of money. Nats GM Mike Rizzo suggested he’s done adding MLB free agents. The Rockies balked at Bellinger’s one-year price last winter and are in a worse spot now. Maybe you could call the White Sox an off-the-wall dark horse, but would GM Chris Getz forfeit a draft pick to sign Bellinger short-term, knowing he’d either opt out next winter or perform poorly enough to be an unwanted contract in 2025? Doubtful.
—
The ideal fit for Bellinger on a short-term deal is a team that’s not already a tax payor or is only minimally over the line. The Cubs have been considered something of a presumptive favorite due to Bellinger’s strong year there in 2023, but as outlined above, they also make sense both from a roster and financial standpoint. Other plausible long-shot options when considering the tax and payroll ramifications could include the Angels and Giants. The Padres could add Bellinger without paying substantial taxes, but it’d run counter to the team’s cost-cutting efforts this winter. Long-shot fits with the D-backs and particularly the Royals sound a bit more sensible than one might imagine at first blush.
We certainly don’t know that Bellinger will wind up going short-term, but he’s the most sensible candidate to do so of the remaining marquee Boras clients, and if he goes that route, it could open the door for some unexpected suitors.
Maybe I missed it, but I don’t recall Correa winning a league MVP like Bellinger.
How about to Cubs, four years at $29 million per year, and an opt out after first, second and third year? Opt out is ok with PCA and Shaw needs a year to get ready, and Busch may need it too
I like it.
He’ll probably get it but $29M seems high for AAV
How about just one year at $29M, and a player option for 5/150 (or a $15M team buyout) that kicks in if he finishes top-4 in NL MVP voting.
Why should a team risk paying $81M to what turns out to be a mediocre player. The Cubs already did that with Jason Heyward when he rejected all his options and stick around to hit grounders to the second baseman all year long.
Brick House Coffee Tables Inc,
Hey now, Heyward’s grounders were a quintessential strategy for the Cubs! He really hustled on those plays, a little more respect for Jason! /sarcasm
The deal should be, imo,:
5/125 opt out after 2 and 3
Cubs can negate the opt out by exercising a team option valued at 3 years 90 million dollars
Or
6/120 with an opt out after 2 and 3 with no team option.
I’d add incentives for MVP placement as well.
That’s too much, I’d go no more than 3/$70M with escalators based off MVP finish, Gold Gloves, Silver Sluggers, and/or All-Star appearances to push it to over $80M and the ability to hit the market after every year.
Funny, about a month ago I threw out (elsewhere) a 5/$150 for Bellinger with similar early and often opt outs – and people said “no way Bellinger takes only a 5 year deal.” It’s really feeling like he’ll end up with somewhere between a 3-5. As long as the options are mutual at the 3 year mark, total length doesn’t matter.
Most people get their opinions and material from the writers on this site. Maybe they think it makes themselves sound smart but it reality it just shows a lack of critical thinking skills.
As for Bellinger, I think a 30 million AAV is too high right now. Escalators where he could earn 30 million seems fair but I feel between 20-25 million on a “long term” contract. Thirty million I think would only be a possibility on a one year deal.
If I’m a team, I would want to avoid a “Correa type deal” guaranteeing Bellinger 30+ million for three years. Thirty million first season with an opt, then a drop to 20 million and possibly a drop again because if he didn’t opt out after the first year, it means he was awful.
I think the White Sox will sign him. Lol
They’re only doing minor league deals. Focused on has beens and never will bes.
Scott Boras has entered the chat
We might say that Bellinger had a “dominant performance” Post All-Star?:
– .909 OPS
– 17 HR
– 68 RBI
– 281 AB
Pads on a one year bounce back deal would go a long way re establishing good will with Padres fans.
SS>CF/1B, Bellinger coming off 3 bad seasons in a row & hitting FA took a 1 year deal & had 1 pretty good year directly before hitting FA again at age 29 at end of season, meaning he will turn 30 during next year, Correa was 27 in 1st year of his original extention. Bellinger coming off a pretty good season after 3 bad ones (1 being 2020), Correa was coming off a GREAT year though, not sure why the writer tried to downplay Correas platform season he was worth over 7 BR WAR & won a GG at SS. Also consider Correa had never fallen to the lows Bellinger did, Correa only had 1 bad year the shortened covid year. Also Correa on top of being a young 27 year old SS coming off a 7+WAR GG season had a post season track record of stepping up in the biggest of moments. This is why even tho Bellinger had the higher high with his 2019 season that Correa was still more in demand without having won an MVP.
Correction: Correa never won an MVP.
Mlbtr conveniently forgets Correa gate and his injured leg the Mets and giants found but boras didn’t disclose .
Correa has nearly doubled cody’s career war and is a monster in the postseason. Bellinger has been pathetic when it counts
“Both had won Rookie of the Year and a league MVP early in their careers.”
Correa didn’t win a league MVP
“He surely feels he’s back to his MVP form, but players coming off such a dominant performance rarely have to take a one-year “prove-it” deal. ”
It was a solid season. Only someone who doesn’t know baseball would call it “dominant”.
Bellinger played 130 games, his 162 average would be +120 RBIs, +120 runs scored, +30 home runs, +20 stolen bases. What do you call it if not dominate?
“Bellinger played 130 gms”..It was a solid season just like the man said. You and Scott Boras are the only ones that think it was “dominant”.
Agree with Drasco. Dominant season though with likelihood of some regression to the mean in 2024.
Confused by FSF to only call it a solid season, “maybe dominant but unlikely to fully replicate”.
I disagree, I think Bellinger will be better next season. Another season removed from his shoulder injury, another season comfortable with his approach.
Hope you are right, but I predict some regression to the mean for almost every player that is 28 years old or older
Boras found a sucker to for Hosmer, , but more and more teams have grown a brain since then.
Too bad Billy Eppler doesn’t have a job anymore, am I right?
Hosmer, Rendon, Strasburg, etc. Boras has burned so many owners and GMs with these bombastic claims (Snell is a modern Randy Johnson) and these cheesy poker games of holding up the FA landscape in an attempt to get his players above market value.
There are many quality agencies that get their clients top notch contracts without having to resort to tacky parlor tricks.
That contract was so bad.
But look at his batted ball profile. His walk rate was down while his hard hit rate and barrels were very poor. If anyone is due for regression, it’s Belli. Just because you’re a Cubs fan doesn’t mean you should blindly ignore the data.
I think his talent/ability level will be the same or better than ’23, although how the numbers fall will depend on how he approaches the season. Part of his barrell and hard contact rate was driven by his approach, and I think he could flip that if he chooses. That will mean his K’s go back up however, and his BA down some ticks.
IMHO results are only thing that matters.They are different ways to accomplish this. For hitters RBIs and runs scored. Belli is probably intentionally trying to alter his approach at the plate. If he maintains good strength, eye coordination and hits many balls on the sweet spot of the bat he’ll get his share of HRs 20+.He doesn’t need to take monster swings on every pitch and can adjust once he gets 2 strikes.Also good defense and fundamentals as an OF and 1B/DH helps wins games also and less prone to slumps. There are also many ‘Bible hitters’ that get good offensive results
32 games shy of dominate? Would have, could have numbers don’t count.
His hard hit rate and exit velocity numbers not only didn’t match his baseball-card numbers, they were downright awful. Some of the worst in baseball among regulars. His 2023 was mostly just sheer luck, and his defense has been declining in CF for a couple years now. Teams aren’t dumb. They know what he is and is not. The MVP year was a different player.
It’s a bit deceiving with the “have to take a one-year prove-it”…. I’d argue he most certainly does not have to take a one-year prove it deal, but he wants to be paid as if he were consistent in his performance every year, which he wasn’t.
It’s the same problem with ALL the Boras clients. They feel they have to get top-market price and will accept nothing less. This year, perhaps more than any other, the Boras clients are being squeezed.
That’s pretty much it, Bellinger pedigree and history should land him a five year deal worth 125. That is the acceptable risk vs reward. Problem is, he is being poisoned by his agent, telling him he’s going to get 200+ million.
You’re ignoring the two seasons of pure suck he had. Isn’t that part of his pedigree too? Maybe he was injured as Boras claims. Or maybe he was lucky last season. Cubs are not dumb. Hoyer isn’t going to sign Belli or any Boras client.
Clip as usual a level headed response. I agree with everything you said. At some point when does the player say to Boras ok spring training has started let’s finish this asap and if these players are going to a new team do the other players kind of look at them differently especially if it’s later in spring? Maybe starting of on the wrong foot?
Front offices are smarter than ever.
His hard hit rate was In the lower 10 percentile. His sweet spot percentage was 86th percentile.
Teams are not going to invest heavily in that. Well, smart teams are not going to invest heavily in that.
The investment is for premium defense with an expectation of slightly above average offense, not a complete repeat of 2023.
And how much is that worth? Not what he has been asking four.
Brandon Nimmo received 8 years and 162 million. Nimmo’s deal takes him through age 37 and Nimmo had a history of injuries.
Byron Buxton is 30 signed a 7 year deal for $100 million.
Kevin Kiermaier and Harrison Bader just signed one year $10.5 million deals.
Nimmo is best comp IMHO though he and Belli are very different.
Nimmo does it every year, and I doubt Belinger would sign those other contracts.
Bellinger 22.1 career war on 7 seasons
Nimmo 21.0 career war in 8 seasons
Nimmo played 69 and 92 games in 2019 and 2021
Belli played 95 games in 2021
Looks like a good comp to me
You only “know” what sportswriters have written he wants. No one knows yet what he or Boras is asking for. It’s all just speculation til he actually signs.
Nimmo does it every year.
Bellinger’s OPS+ the last four years is 95.
Nimmo’s is 131.
I’d like to know what team is dumb enough to give Bellinger a 100 million dollar contract.
Rondon, True, but what we do know is whatever offer he’s gotten, he thinks he can get more.
Belli had the better OPS+ last year 133 to 127. Belli is a former ROY, All-Star, Gold Glove, MVP, and MVP of a post-season series, Nimmo is . . . . none of those. Nimmo, when not injured, has been more consistent. Belli has a higher ceiling and a lower floor. But I see them as the best comp for each other. 8 years at 162 million – or preferably four years at 116 million – still sounds about right to me.
You have to concede that he is worth more than Buxton who, despite being two years older, got 7 years at $100 million
It’s not like Belli expects to get paid like, say, Anthony Rendon!
Certainly not the Cubs.
MVP Bellinger doesn’t exist without electronic sign stealing and a juiced ball.
At this point, Boras is just playing ‘chicken’. And if he and Bellinger are, in fact, considering a shorter term deal, then that brings a lot of teams back into this. For what it’s worth though, I did see a pic of him this morning… and he has dyed his hair blue.
Rondon. You are likely correct.
It’s possible Bellinger may have to prove the data, which doesn’t support the massive turnaround, is incorrect.
I’m betting on the data and not the raw statistics.
Bellinger hasn’t played premium defense in CF for a couple years now. He’s not that anymore.
Actually Bellingers defense has been the greatest in mlb history over the past 3 seasons. See, I can make baseless claims too
15.6% makes all those other numbers moot.
If you make more contact, your exit velocity and sweet spot are going to go down.
Bellingers average exit velocity was 88MPH, that is only 2mph less than Bellingers early career but Bellinger cut his strike out rate by 10%. He had 176 live ball events with two strikes, while making a conscious effort to shorten his stroke and make contact…. That is 43% of his plate appearances.
I shouldn’t have to explain this but I will, if you initially hit the ball weaker for 43% of your hit, what do you think that does to hard hit rate, exit velocity, barrel percentage and so on and so forth? Probably makes it go down right? Probably makes it go down a lot right? As cool as stats are, you have to look at the entire picture, the micros and the macros
Those two miles are huge.
Anyway, teams are getting smarter.
Too bad commenters aren’t.
Like you? You refuse to criticize any Cubs players. just like a fanboy. When I was writing, Cubs fans were among the dumbest of all mlb fans. And I love the Cubs. But I am not a cheerleader for them. My eyes are wide open.
Heh. This is just catastrophically wrong.
Drasco that makes tooooo much sense . Laying it down with some stank on it!!!! I love stats but sometimes we overthink it . We’re not doing long division here!I would love to be a fly on Boras wall and know what all of clients have been offered and how close any of these players are. But Bellie n Montgomery intrigue me most.
Being a Cubs fan, I like Snell. Monty to me is too much like Steele to have in the same rotation, Snell would add that power arm/swing and miss element to the rotation that we lack. If Snell can be had on a short term deal I’d be all over it. That’s not to say Montgomery isn’t good, he’s just too much like Steele and last time Hoyer got too cute with similar guys (Hendricks and Davis) they both got rocked. The Cubs also have Wicks who isn’t a power lefty either.
Maybe Cubs say F it were going all in sign Bellie and one of the two lefties Snell or Monty I know it’s not the Cubs style but they could pull it off. I hear you on similarities of doubling up on 2 like pitchers ….. Cubs have some very good pitching with more on the way good times for Northside !
It’s not the Cubs style but I think/hope/could see the Cubs making some concessions on deals they view as “value” deals. Short term contracts with opt outs, go above the luxury tax this year, fall under next type situation. With where the Cubs are with their prospects and their payroll, it would make a lot of sense.
Busch, PCA may both “be ready” this year but it’s still two question marks. Horton and Brown could be up at some point this season, early next season if they can avoid the injury bug. If you’re filling 2/5 the rotation with league minimum pitchers and Steele still relatively inexpensive and four positions on the field (CF PCA, 1st Busch, 3rd Shaw and C Amaya) then you should easily be able to jump under the luxury tax and possibly add if/when a prospect needs time/washes out.
Teams like Cubs Yankees Dodgers who basically print there own money they make so much of it Should not let spending cut them short on the field I’m not saying go crazy like the Dodgers but winning fixes all of that! Going to be interesting season on Northside no doubt
Reality is setting in with these guys finally.
Reality setting in for reds fans all these guys are about to be cubs
Good luck with that.
I am honestly surprised to not have been out payrolled already.
Seriously dude? Hoyer is being just as stubborn as Boras.
Cody wants too much and his market is microscopic small. Lower his asking price and teams will offer him a contract. 9 figures and multi-years is just not in the cards.
I think he can easily get four years at 25 million with no opt outs and a no-trade clause. Probably can get a little more with lots of opt outs.
I do agree that the market is shrinking for him, but Cubs, Giants and maybe even Angels are still in play.
He can’t get 100 million from a smart club.
Byron Buxton did.
So Angels then for 8/270?
I think he could get that right now, especially if teams think he could stick in CF for the duration of the contract.
@manny I agree. That 25 million/ 4 year contract seems fairly close for Cody. I was thinking avg of 8.5 million a year. McCutchen got that with Phillies and with the Pirates. McCutchen is older, but at Cody’s age, he made roughly 12-14 million. I shouldn’t compare the two really, but Cody has the same type of career so far. Just Cody is seeking multiple years and many smart clubs know that his production offensively and/or defensively could go the other way. It did for McCutchen by 31-32 years of age. He had to move out of CF while Marte took over. McCutchen UZR in CF was in the negative in his early 30s. By age 35, he blew out a quad and been a DH since. I can see why multiple years is not in the cards for Cody at the price he wants.
I agree that Cody has a high ceiling and a low floor. Risk is involved. But the Cubs are a big market team and it is time for them to act like one. Sign Snell, Montgomery, Belli or Chapman. If Snell, Monty or Belli can be had on a four year deal, or Chapman can be had on a two year deal. I think Belli is a great match and it still may happen. I don’t see the Cubs paying for another frontline pitcher so Steele will have a heavy burden.
“After a pair of injury-ruined 2021-22 seasons, Bellinger was non-tendered by the Cubs.”
What?
It has been fixed– thank you!
Mariners. Need another OF, or for France if his off-season at Driveline doesn’t bounce him back. Oh man, we’d have a complete 13 position players with Bellinger. plenty of question marks amongst them, but the 13 would be set.
Too bad the poor Mariners don’t have the money 🙁
No money.
Doesn’t the loss of a draft choice sting even more for a short term deal?
If it’s purely a one-year deal I believe it may be under the dollar threshold for a draft pick penalty. But good point – the loss of a draft choice adds even more downside to a deal structured with opt outs.
Cubs gave Bellinger a qualifying offer, therefore if he signs a pick is owed. It’s bot a $ threshold.
Looks like the $50M threshold only applies one way, to the losing team, for purposes of getting competitive balance draft pick compensation. Not sure why but there’s no dollar threshold the other way, for the penalty.
The $ value has nothing to do with Qualifying Offers. I believe each player can only be offered a a Qualifying Offer once with a pick attached. I’m not saying this as 100% correct, but I believe that is what I’ve read in regards to QO’s.
For QOs, the team that had extended the QO gets a better pick if they’re a competitive balance team and the player signs with another team for more than $50M. But the team that signs that player is penalized regardless of the contract value.
Like how the thumbnail is pretty much the 2 landing spots left for him and thanks for including Berrios
The Kelenic/Bellinger $$$ comparison is a bit off-point, though, right, given the years of control the Braves get with him for that investment?
Best fit ignoring money is the Padres hands down. Royals could make sense. Angels if Trout agrees to move off of center. Cubs I think should trade for Robert and Cease.
Moving Trout off center is a smart play.
I thought about the Angels injuries last year.
DH – Ohtani, oblique, swinging a bat
C. – O’Hoppe, Labrum, swinging a bat
2B – Rengifo, tendon, swinging a bat.
SS – Neto, back, slide at home plate.
3B – Rendon, leg, Fouling a ball off his leg.
LF – Ward, hit in the face with a pitch.
CF – Wrist, swinging a bat.
RF – Adell, oblique, swinging a bat.
It’s absurd to think playing Trout in LF or RF is more likely to prevent injury.
Robert isn’t going anywhere, plus Hoyer isn’t going to trade his youngsters. He’s not ready to go all in on this season.
4 years of Robert and 2 years of Cease really isn’t going all in. Thst gives the Cubs a nice window and with that trade they go from division contender to legit contender.
Also Robert hasn’t been able to stay healthy. In the last 3 years he has averaged around 400 AB’s. In ‘21 and ‘22 he averaged 328 AB’s.
I feel bad for the team that signs Bellinger. Even a short term contract would be a disaster.
Lol at these batted ball metrics… now post his numbers with 2 strikes. He was the second best hitter with two strikes. He was outstanding at shortening up and getting a hit when he was down in the count. Cubs fans who watched can attest.
Good, go to CHI.
Texas leaguer, I have.
Hard hit rate 22 percentile. Barrels 27 percentile. Hard hir pct, 10 percentile. Base on balls 36 percentile.
Do you think Jason Heyward would have been singled for big money today? Teams have gotten smarter.
Bellinger benefited from quite a bit of luck w/ 2 strikes.
.279 BA with a .224 xBA
.312 wOBA with a .255 xwOBA
.386 BABIP
His 25.3% Hard Hit rate was much lower than the 36.1% league average HH rate w/ 2 strikes. So that light-hitting, contact-oriented approach was more in line with the .313 xSLG rather than the .411 SLG he posted.
Regression is coming. But that’s ok. He can still be an above average hitter with elite CF defense.
In 2022 he had 150 strikeouts opposed to 87 in 2023. His averages in those seasons were .210 and .307. Of course his hard hit rate is going to be down, he made a ton more contact. He also had 26 HRs in 2023 opposed to 19 in 2022.
You re trying to spin his stats to paint the narrative you are looking for. He had more double, HRs, and a ton more hits. Try and paint reality into a negative manner, but reality is his hitting vastly improved overall.
I wasn’t comparing his 2023 stats to 2022 stats. Of course he was a better hitter last year than the year before.
I’m just showing that the underlying metrics with 2 strikes – in 2023 only – didn’t support his bottom line results. Hence the likely regression in 2024. Not saying he’ll turn into a pumpkin but I wouldn’t be betting on a .307/.356/.525 slash line again personally.
Both of your takes are valid. Let’s see if his two-strikes approach results are repeatable. I think pitchers will throw to him differently now with two-strikes so his ’25 stat line could result in a lower BA and higher OBP. It’s a very small sample size for his .386 BABIP.
TexasLeague,
Yes he is great at that 2 strikes time to shortening up and Anthony Rizzo is excellent at it as well. It’s kind of a lost art . Like bunting , moving guys over . Now get off my yard lol but it’s great to see stolen bases are increasing. These batters are settling for 190 strikeouts and 30 home runs 75 rbi because there worried about launch angle . They are selling themselves way to short .
Far too much is made of his EV and Hard Hit%. His SweetSpot% was excellent as were his contact numbers & quality of contact. He saw much more breaking and off-speed stuff than fastballs, which at least partially explains some of the softer contact, and yet his SwStr% was a career low at 9.3%.
Seattle absolutely should be a dark horse to sign him. It does seem unlikely, but slotting him fourth between Polanco & Garver would really strengthen Seattle’s lineup, and it would mean Canzone becomes depth. The pressure would be off of Haniger (who is almost certainly the opening day right fielder if healthy as of now) and they’d have insurance for France at 1B.
Would Justin and Jerry get the green light from ownership? Probably not, but with Ray and White off the books, their future commitments are notably lower than they were before the offseason started.
I like that you at least considered the Dbacks in your hypothetical. Well written piece, could probably add that Belly is from Chandler. He is a dynamic player that could impact the roster. Alek Thomas would still get at bats, and his playoff experience shows he’s a clutch player ready to take off.
Hazen reiterated today they are only looking for a RHH 4th OF on a value K. Belli isn’t in the cards and it looks like McCarthy will be depth in Reno or traded.
I agree that it isn’t likely and more of a fun hypothetical. They don’t need superstar contracts that take money away from locking up core young players. Hazen is the smart GM that we’ve never had before him because he is interested in building a winning tradition. He resigned when he could have gone to Boston, so he’s super committed to this franchise.
Boras has just about hung the Boras 4 out to dry. They’re reaching the point where best option is to accept short-term deal or 1-year deal & re-enter 2025 FA
Boras has overvalued the Boras 4 to the point teams have gone to other options. Boras may possibly feel the ripple effects of long existing clients or gaining future clients
It’s not just the players that are affected it’s their whole families who have to uproot & immediately arrangements to move, make housing, school, etc arrangements. Players & families suddenly question why their contracts couldn’t have been resolved earlier especially since they became FA after World Series
^^^ Chase Carter burner account, hi fam
I wonder how these guys have such great walk years. Is there a baseball god that grants super seasons with a touch on foreheads?
More like motivation/how humans naturally react to incentives. Astute GMs will look at how a player performs in the seasons that aren’t contract years rather than get carried away by the recency effect.
The speed of a 21 year old Billy Hamilton combined with the defense of a 25 year old Kevin Kiermaier combined with the power of a 27 year old Pujols. Crazy he hasn’t been signed yet.
The only explanation for your post is that the bourbon is really good in Kentucky
After Boras F’s is value? League minimum.
Orioles are actually a good fit. Yes they have plenty of outfielders, but you can argue that Bellinger is better than all of them. They could recoup a bit of money by trading one of the three starters who are good but not great..
Bellinger was fantastic for the Cubs last season and they should be moving heaven and earth to get this guy re-signed.
We talk about his 2 strike approach which was top notch last season but let’s also talk about this, .984, which was his ops against southpaws.
Wrigley is great for Bellinger because it encourages him to be his best self, which is a gap to gap hitter vs a pull hitter. Pull hitters cannot hit same hand pitchers
Who exactly is left to be bidding on these guys? Maybe the Giants and Angels for Snell??? Who are the Cubs even bidding against for Bellinger now? Surely they want him back, but it doesn’t seem like anyone is lining up to pay $200m for a guy who had two AWFUL seasons in the last 36 months.
At this point I honestly hope Bellinger, Snell, Montgomery etc all get hosed. Boras trying to control the market like he does is sure to backfire once in a while and it feels like this year he has overplayed his hand.
Boras may not have anticipated how much the Diamond Sports situation stifled spending by a lot of clubs.
Look at the clubs that Diamond Sports owns the rights to broadcast:
Arizona Diamondbacks
Atlanta Braves
Cincinnati Reds
Cleveland Guardians
Detroit Tigers
Kansas City Royals
Los Angeles Angels
Miami Marlins
Milwaukee Brewers
Minnesota Twins
St. Louis Cardinals
San Diego Padres
Tampa Bay Rays
Texas Rangers
How many of those teams have spent a lot in Free Agency this year?
Stop tryna make Bellinger to Philly a thing.
I realize the article has them extremely low on the list but at this point Bellinger makes almost zero sense for the Giants.
Depends if you want them to try and compete at all or just be happy with finishing ahead of the Rockies? I’d prioritize pitching for them, with Ray and Cobb missing significant chunks of the season and Hicks supposedly being counted on for starters innings, but I do think Bellinger would be a very beneficial piece to the Giants squad.
I’ll sign him in The Show 24 when it drops
Giants chilling all offseason, signing these free agents to 1-2 years deal come spring training.
Pretty crazy that Bellinger legitimately has no place in baseball.
I noticed it from the start of the off season, that any team that could afford him would be making a redundant sighing to over staff any position Bellinger is a fit for.
It’s bizarre that guy his age with his pedigree, coming off a very good bounce back year, is genuinely not needed by any team and there’s basically no justification or room for anybody to sign him.
I think the Cubs on 1 year/$27.5M w/ a 3 year/$90M mutual option seems most logical.
They won’t lose a draft pick by signing him.
He’s not a redundant signing for the Angels and they could afford him. The Angels have an unproven first baseman and a hole in the outfield. Despite what Halo11 contends. Trout needs to spend less time patrolling center, if they want him in the lineup for more than 120 games. Besides, despite all the highlight reel catches in his early years, he’s only an average CF with a below average arm. Ward’s arm is fine for RF. Sign Belli short-term, put Trout in left and move Ward to right. Cut bait on Adell. Keep Moniak as a fourth OFer.
To be honest, the team that he would probably kill on is the Reds. If you had him in the outfield to go along with the rest of that team, it would be killer. He hits both splits very well and can handle any outfield position. Am I dreaming? Yes. But, maybe just maybe, would he sign a one year plus player option at $30 million a year, Wouild he do it? The Reds were paying Votto $25 million a year so they actually can spend money. Maybe not long term, but short-term.
Most low budget teams have a big contract or two on the books and can afford high salaried players. Especially when those players are complements to a good young team if it’s on a short term deal that expires before all that young talent hits the later arb years. Like you said, the Reds have made investments in times of contention. That’s a fun team right now that must be seeing an increase in eyes on them. That park fits Bellinger well if he is looking at a short term deal to reenter the market.
I guess you’d want to be confident he’s a clear upgrade on any player who would lose out on playing time with him there. Is he clearly better than Freidl, Steer, Benson etc? Maybe in the short term. But is that the priority timeline? They’d be in a strong position to trade some of the position player depth if they did that I guess.
Career .258 hitter waiting for that last dollar.
Bellinger as a Red? His numbers would be unreal. Come on, put him in CF and work with the kids to take that lousy division. Then sign Montgomery.
Reds already have a viable center fielder who makes a fraction of what Bellinger would command.
They have Benson in RF… Friel can move to the corner and let Bellinger play CF. Bellinger would give them a lefty power bat in the middle of their lineup. Benson moves to 4th outfielder.
But this is the Reds… they will sign Chapman for 3B. They don’t have enough 3B’s..
“Pirates, Marlins, Reds, Guardians, Rays: Five of the lowest-payroll clubs in the game. It seems safe to say no one from this group is going to seriously pursue Bellinger, even on a short-term deal.”
FTR…Pittsburgh, Miami, Cincinnati, Cleveland and Tampa can all compete just fine in the NFL, NBA and NHL.
They get to have good players and everything.
MLB is a step away from WWE or the Globetrotters.
You cannot compare the NFL and NBA to the MLB because those leagues are complete different. The NFL is a national sport, it’s nationally televised and there are significantly less games. NFL can throw whom ever they want on Monday and Thursday and fans will tune in. They can do the same on Sunday night.
The NBA is a star driven league. Fans follow stars and not teams. James in Cleveland earned them money hand over fist. Wade in Miami did the same and so on.
The MLB, by Seligs design, is a regional sport (all the bs local tv deals that are ruining free agency now) and never ever marketed the stars, presumably to not have another “Steroid Era” embarrassment.
No.
It’s because those leagues allow all the teams to compete while MLB has 10 real teams and bunch of window dressing.
How about Giants for 2-3 years with the opt out clause. They could then trade Wade and/or Yaz for a starter. Bellinger could alternate playing outfield and first. Might even have money left for Montgomery in a similar shorter term deal
The option I don’t see here, which would apply to teams close to or past luxury tax limits, is deferred pay which is how the LA team has Dodged the luxury tax hit on Shohei Ohtani.
For example, the Blue Jays don’t’ currently have a lot of long-term contracts, and will have budget room over next 3 to 5 years as things currently sit. So they could offer a contract which pays, say 2%, this year and the rest over the next few seasons. Structured with outs, Bellinger could have big incentive to produce at the top of his game.
And, quite seriously, this approach would work with all teams for all remaining big ticket FAs.
It’s fair to say that teams and players don’t want to wait until end of Spring Training in six weeks, so I expect contract creativity to kick in pretty soon.
You clearly don’t understand how the deferred payments work.
I’d like to see him sign with the Astros. CF and 1B are the two weakest positions. It would be a strong depth move.
Astros OF is crowded as is. Espada plans to rotate Yordan into LF and announced Meyers as the starter in CF. McCormick has proven he deserves to play every day. They are also trying to extend one or both of Bregman and Tucker.
Also, Belli was part of the hurt feelings chorus because of Houston’s ‘weak’ apologies. Not a good fit and I was surprised to see Houston mentioned.
The D-backs really don’t make sense as a destination for Bellinger in 2024. We can argue long term, since Alek Thomas hasn’t quite locked down center field and Christian Walker will be a FA after this season, but it’s more likely the D-backs tap their farm system than splurge $20M a year on Bellinger. They have room to make one more addition to their roster, but more in the sense of a 4th OF and they prefer a right-handed hitting bat.
15 years ago, hitting was considered a skill and home runs were “luck”. Now people think hitting is luck and only home runs are skill because they watched a movie or read a book and only half understood the point of it.
I think it a mistake to rule the Reds out. They have been very aggressive this winter, yet most of their contracts are short term. They are in need of a RH hitting outfielder. A few years ago, the Reds signed Nick Castellano, by offering him a three year deal with two player opt out clauses. I could see the Reds offering Belli a 3 year deal worth $75 M with a player opt out each year.
Bellinger is a LH Hitter… He’s not a good fit honestly. I’d rather sign Adam Duvall or Michael Taylor to fit in where needed in the OF especially against LHP in RF. If the Reds could get anyone of the big four, I’d want Jordan Montgomery and then Blake Snell. The Reds have so many good, young players and tons of competition. I just want to see how things play out unless they can get Montgomery or Snell for cheap (not happening).
Duh, thanks Cincyfan I’m not sure why I thought Bellinger was a RH bat. You are absolutely correct, he would not be a good fit.
Cubs 50 percent Giants 40 percent with the Angels having an outside shot. If Bellinger ends up with the Halos he will make a permanent three man DL along with Rendon and Trout.
On a short term deal or
one with an opt out or two he’d be foolish not to go back the Chicago if they want him. Naturally he would hope to over-perform again, opt
out, and secure a huge deal in 25. His game just fits the team and park better than anywhere else. They also have enough hitters to protect him. If he signs in Chicago they are the division favorites based on last years Cardinals team performance.
I think it’s pretty simple for Bellinger, money or competing to win.
The Cubs won’t offer him the best contract. I believe the Angels will. Chicago can compete for the division, the Angels will be out of the race by the AS break.
Bellinger reportedly “loved his time in Chicago”. Players say that stuff all the time. Jed Hoyer is probably gonna roll the dice and see if that’s truly the case.
If I had to bet on it, I would bet Belli does NOT end up back with the Cubs regardless of all the alleged smoke.
I got him signing w/ the Angels for a hefty contract w/ multiple opt outs.
The bottom line is non top-tier talent isn’t being over paid this off season.
This is all on Boras. Some of these guys, there value will “never be higher” so why are they still there? Especially the pitchers whom typically report early. Are ALL the owners “cheap”? Probably not.
This is why a FA deadline is the answer.
Owners will not be able to low ball because it will only take one owner to pony up.
Agents can’t play chicken and threaten to hold out til well into ST.
Put the deadline at January 15th
On Jan 16th, no team can sign a FA for over the vet minimum. This will ensure that fringe players can still sign whenever incase of injuries and/or roster spots that open up due to trades, DFA’s, etc…
The feeding frenzy will commence right away for the top free agents just like it does in the NBA and NFL.
The owners AND agents will be forced to adjust just like they did/do for the trade deadline.
The players, owners and fans suffer under the current system, the only ones who don’t are the agents because they have plenty of clients. They don’t mind playing chicken with their careers.
No one can convince me that Montgomery, Snell and Belli will make more on March 1st than they would’ve on December 19th.
This is a no brainer for me.
The Cubs are Bellinger’s best fit and Bellinger’s best fit is the Cubs. Just do it already!
I gotta give Arte Moreno credit, I’m not being facetious when I say this, but I will commend him for not jumping the gun and signing another Boras client to a ridiculous long term contract. I think he finally learned his lesson with Rendon.
Also, the way things are shaping up, these Boras guys might not sign until after the draft and with high AAV one or two year deals that have an opt out after 2024 to test free agency again.
Rendon and Stratsburg are the gold standard for bad contracts and why I have no sympathy for the players whatsoever
Carl Crawford loves your memory
An intelligent GM would want proof that last season was the real Cody and not a fluke
So a short term contract may be his only option
No love for the Giants? By which I mean Yomiuri, not San Francisco.
Bellinger started following Royce Lewis on Twitter earlier today. I’ve been touting Bellinger to the Twins all off-season; the fit makes sense.
I’m expecting a 3 year deal to come down the chute here; 25MM per, with opt outs after years 1 & 2.
Twins are still trying to obtain another rotation piece-pitcher, so I wouldn’t be surprised if some farm system equity was available in addition to Farmer, Kepler, Walner & Larnach; among others.
Call me crazy, but y’all would’ve said the same thing prior to Correa signing the first time. I think Bellinger to the Twins is more likely to happen now than for it not to.
I’m sure some clubs have looked into the Bellinger multi year offer but the injury early in the career covering multiple seasons and injured on a celebratory high 5 mind you is a red flag for a lot of clubs, plus the fact the teams may likely not even get an insurance policy possibly covering 4 of 10 year deal.
I like him with the cardinals that would be some lineup they got the money and they can easily move the excess of outfielders via trade
Mariners
Giants would be a better team with Bellinger. Sign him then trade Yaz and/or Conforto for a pitcher. Same with Snell. Sign him, then trade one of your young pitchers for another bat.
Yaz and Conforto are assets to the team, but their contracts do not have much surplus value.
I think the Giants should sign Snell or Monty, but keep their young pitchers. The Giants are going to be fourth in the division this year.
Yaz has no trade value
Bellinger would look great in a cardinal uniform!!!! The cardinals could trade a couple of their outfielders for another starting pitcher to make room for him
The longrr these guys wait to sign, the more they are out of baseball shape and the greater chance of injury. We have seen it before.
Working out on your own is far different than being in camp.
Feels like the Cubs are bidding against themselves with Bellinger. 3 yrs/$63M.
Seems to me there are only a few options available at this time. One..take a short deal with someone who’ll still offer it. Two….A longer term at a much lower AAV. Three….hoping for an injury making a team desperate enough. Four…..sit out, potentially decreasing your value because of a lack of spring training. Five….sit out the season and while you’re at it, fire Boros, who cost you and himself millions.
I love the ” Tigers have a full outfield… they don’t have room for a .300 hitter with power speed and defense.”
The Tigers have holes all through their roster. They have no room to say they don’t need a certain position. Their best offensive player was Carpenter last year with a 120 OPS+. That’s good, but really, he could play LF, RF or DH. Greene was next but he hasn’t been able to play 100 games in his 2 seasons. He can play all 3 OF positions. Then there’s Tork who is barely above average at 102 OPS+. There are teams with 2 1B’s.. Heck, look at the Phillies. They have Castellanos, Harper, Schwarber and 2022 Hoskins who are all 1B/DH playing every day. All well over 100 OPS+.
The Oakland A’s stink… they are terrible. They had 3 regulars with better OPS+ than any Tiger.
2B Zack Gelof at 137
DH Brent Rooker 130
Ryan Noda 121
No, they don’t need a .300 hitter with power, speed and defense. He wouldn’t fit into the AAAA culture.
Bellinger will sign somewhere, start collecting his guaranteed money, then revert back to a .218 hitter. Once he gets paid he’ll lose all his motivation. I think owners are concerned about this, or someone would have met his price by now.
Tigers signed their ss or 2b to a long term contract. The former cub/met How’s that working?
Baez is better than anything else on the roster. If Baez wasn’t there, you’d see Maton or Kriedler at SS.
It seems like it’s assumed that Bellinger will have to settle for a shorter deal with opt outs, but if I’m a team willing to take on the risk/reward proposition that is Bellinger, I wouldn’t want a deal that is all downside for the team. I’d look at something more creative like a lucrative team option first and then if declined, a lesser player option. That allows the team the upside of getting to keep him at a price point reflective of what he thinks he is if he proves it to the team this year and then he still gets the insurance if he’s not that.
Adams is utterly clueless about punctuation and syntax. “Jordan Mongtomery, likewise, probably won’t have a better platform than this past year’s postseason heroics” is TERRIBLE sentence construction. Put “likewise” at the start; there is literally no reason to put it in the middle and interrupt the flow of the sentence.
Then there is a comma before “too” for no reason. This is an archaic rule that people smartly did away with, but Adams is too dumb to know that he’s using conventions from the 60s. Furthermore, he uses a comma after “and” when it starts the sentence TWICE. Completely incorrect.
Finally, this atrocity: “The Diamondbacks don’t need outfielders, necessarily, but…” Why on god’s green earth would you write a sentence like this? There should be no comma before necessarily, but an adverb belongs BEFORE the verb: “the Diamondbacks don’t necessarily need outfielders, but…” Come on, how hard is that? What kind of idiot writes and punctuates like this? The guy needs a proofreader more than any writer I’ve ever seen.
Fire this hack.