The Yankees were connected yesterday to free agent Blake Snell but it appears they are exploring the trade market as well. Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reports that the Yankees, and the Orioles, have “sincere” interest in Dylan Cease. The O’s were previously connected to Cease and Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com reported earlier this week that they “remain engaged” with the White Sox. Rosenthal adds that the Dodgers, Cardinals and Red Sox, all previously reported to have interest in Cease, are possibly still in the mix, with other clubs perhaps involved as well. The Braves and the Reds, who once had interest in Cease, appear to have moved on to other targets with Atlanta trading for Chris Sale and the Reds signing Frankie Montas and Nick Martínez.
Rumors have been flying around Cease all winter but he remains on the White Sox for now. About a month ago, it was reported that the White Sox were “pulling back” on the Cease talks. That wasn’t to take him off the market, but rather that the Sox wanted to wait until Yoshinobu Yamamoto signed to find out if clubs that missed on him would pivot to Cease as a fallback.
With the interest from the Yankees, that would appear to be exactly the case. They were one of the clubs that was heavily connected to Yamamoto before he signed with the Dodgers, leaving the Yanks looking elsewhere. They have considered Snell as well as free agent Jordan Montgomery but are checking in on Cease as well.
For the Yanks, they have Gerrit Cole cemented into the top spot of their rotation but things get less clear after that. Carlos Rodón and Nestor Cortes have the potential to be excellent contributors but both of them struggled badly in 2023, both with injuries and poor performance. Clarke Schmidt will likely be in the mix towards the back of the rotation, but the club subtracted from its depth in the Juan Soto trade, as Michael King, Drew Thorpe, Jhony Brito and Randy Vásquez are all Padres now. Adding another starting pitcher, and having Rodón and Cortes bounce back a bit, would give the club a very strong front four, with Schmidt likely in the five spot and pitchers like Clayton Beeter, Yoendrys Gómez, Luis Gil and Will Warren providing the depth.
Cease would upgrade any rotation in the league, despite a relative down year in 2023. He had a 2.20 earned run average in 2022 but that figure jumped to 4.58 last year, though his underlying numbers paint a less drastic picture. His 2022 success wasn’t likely to be sustainable anyway, given his .260 batting average on balls in play and 82.3% strand rate, both of which are on the lucky side. Those numbers moved to .330 and 69.4% in 2023, pushing some extra runs across. His strikeout and swinging strike rates did tick down slightly but were both still well above average. His 3.10 FIP in 2022 jumped to 3.72 in 2023, suggesting a far less concerning shift, while his SIERA went from 3.48 to 4.10.
Looking at the past three years as a whole evens out some of that luck and paints and an incredibly flattering portrait. He’s made 97 starts since the start of 2021 with a 3.54 ERA and 29.8% strikeout rate. The 10.1% walk rate is on the high side but his 12.6 wins above replacement from FanGraphs in that time puts him eighth among all MLB pitchers.
His appeal goes beyond his skills, as his earning power is still capped by the arbitration system. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects Cease for a salary of $8.8MM this year and he will be due a raise in 2025 before reaching free agency.
The Yankees currently have a competitive balance tax figure of $290MM, according to Roster Resource. They are set to pay the tax for a third straight year in 2024, which sets them up for escalating penalties. They are already above the third tier of $277MM and nearing the fourth and final tier of $297MM. That means they are facing a tax rate of 95% on current spending until they go over the last line and then have a 110% rate on spending from there.
Signing a player like Snell or Montgomery would likely require the Yanks to give out a salary of around $25MM or more, with the taxes effectively doubling that. Given that Cease will be making around a third of that salary figure, that would obviously make him more attractive.
But the flip side of that equation is that Cease will also require sending something to the White Sox in return, likely a very significant package of talented young players. The Yanks just sent away a big batch of young pitchers in the Soto deal and may be reluctant to make another sizable dent in their talent pipeline. As for what the Sox would be looking for, Rosenthal says they are “staying open-minded” and “not necessarily inclined to favor a team that could include major-league-ready pitching.”
With the O’s also having “sincere” interest, they might have an edge on the Yankees in terms of having the talent to get a deal done. Despite constantly graduating prospects to the major league level in recent years, they are still considered to have the top farm system in the league by many evaluators. Jackson Holliday is almost certainly untouchable but the club also has guys like Colton Cowser, Coby Mayo, Jordan Westburg, Samuel Basallo, Heston Kjerstad and Joey Ortiz without enough open positions for all of them.
The club has also shown a bias against bold moves, both in the trade market and free agency, which is why they have that loaded farm system and almost no money on the books. If they decide now is the time to strike, Cease would fit nicely into a rotation with lots of talent but limited experience. Kyle Bradish and Grayson Rodriguez are at the top of the rotation for now, after each showed encouraging signs in 2023, but Bradish has less than two full years in the big leagues and Rodriguez less than one. Then there’s John Means, who has hardly pitched in the last two years due to Tommy John surgery, and guys like Dean Kremer and Cole Irvin options for the back end.
As mentioned, clubs like the Dodgers, Cardinals and Red Sox may still be involved and that might not even be the extent of the market. But with Yamamoto off the board, it seems the pitching market is broadly heating up and a Cease trade could happen at any time now.
This is a circumstance (within reason) where the Orioles just need to let the White Sox know that a prospect or two are off limits, but pick what you want, and get it done. No way the Yankees system can compete with an offer from Baltimore.
NYY could compete b/c BAL only has prospects. NYY presumably has dollars and (mostly inferior) prospects. They can fill a hole via FA a lot easier, which BAL most likely cannot. BAL’s reliance on those prospects may make them gun shy in pulling off a deal, especially knowing they may not give as robust of an offer if they don’t think they would be able to extend him (his agent his Boras) or re-sign him (his agent is Boras). NYY has that BDE that BAL most likely does not.
I think JerseyShoreScore was referring to competing with regards to specifically a Dylan Cease trade. White Sox are going to want players, not cash, for him. Orioles have a much better group of prospects to trade than the Yankees do. The only question is whether the Orioles value Cease as highly as the White Sox hope in terms of return for him.
Sure, but what I meant is that dealing prospects takes a hit to your depth that NYY can more easily fill via FA that BAL presumably cannot.
If the Orioles aren’t going to spend in FA, then using their prospect capital in trades is the only way to improve a team that is ready to contend
I would disagree with that premise. Baltimore has too many infield and outfield prospects, even for depth purposes. So many will be blocked by other players. Baltimore also could spend way more than they currently are if they need someone in free agency. Yankees are well into luxury tax range, where a free agent will come with a very hefty tax.
@Fred Good points about both clubs. Baltimore is dealing with drafting the best prospect, regardless of position, for years. That’s a good problem to have. Your point about the Yankees adding a pitcher through trade as opposed to paying double whatever fa $$ on a starter makes all the sense in the world.
The Yankees can afford to gamble and lose, the Orioles cannot.
NYY can more easily fill via FA
=========================
Only assuming that paying more and more tax doesn’t bother Hal.
They NYY would effectively be paying twice as much for Snell, for example, as BA would.
MLB teams have pockets of opportunity that occur cyclically. It’s how the Royals won the WS in 2015.
It’s now the pocket of opportunity for Baltimore.
NY is in a weird holding pattern and Boston just traded Chris Sale. Tampa just lost one of their core players (Franco) and Toronto is trying to manage keeping the band together before FA blows it up.
Now is the time for the Orioles to capitalize on their home grown assets and go full throttle.
A big assumption, Joe.
I don’t disagree with you @john, but Basallo and Jackson along with Povich? too rich for Cease who doesn’t have a deep history of success. no doubt he qualifies for what we currently call an “innings eater” but Jackson and Basallo alone could be the top prospect in the MLB for the next 2 yrs.
I don’t fault the rebuilding WSox for asking, esp as I live in their high A minor team’s city and their farm system is pretty weak.
but the rumor of what they asked of the Reds was also pretty steep.
to be honest, I’d be okay with the Yankees emptying their minors for Cease if we could trade a combo of major Leaguers and middle prospects for Jesus Luzardo from the Fish. more control and the O’s could use a southpaw in the lineup.
I’d like to see him with the Red Sox, not only to see the White Sox’ #1A and #1B pitchers together again, but because the Red Sox are my second favorite AL team. The Cards are my favorite NL team so I wouldn’t mind Cease going there. But Cease in a Yankee uniform, without that magnificent mustache, absolutely not!
avenger, I think Baltimore should be able, and happy to work out an agreement with the White Sox. They would be making a big mistake in assuming their window is longer than two to three years. Certainly the White Sox fans would probably agree with that assessment, after the Sox window closed so abruptly.
If I’m the O’s I’d try to build a package around 3B Mayo and one or two lesser prospects – and get Cease. Cease isn’t a #1, but is a dependable 2 or 3. And has the 2 years of control that fits the Os timeframe.
The Yankees allow mustaches.
Underrated comment.
MLBTR “Yankees currently have a competitive balance tax figure of $290MM, according to Roster Resource. They are set to pay the tax for a third straight year in 2024, which sets them up for escalating penalties. They are already above the third tier of $277MM and nearing the fourth and final tier of $297MM. That means they are facing a tax rate of 95% on current spending until they go over the last line and then have a 110% rate on spending from there.” This basically means Soto is gone after 2025 not spending a billion on Soto lol or 800 Cole if opts out.
I have been hoping the Yankees would trade for Cease since he was a middling prospect with the Cubs. Sure my suggestion of Happ and Cease for Andrew Miller wasn’t nearly as sexy as Frazier and Sheffield was at the time but like I was saying back then any pitching prospects Cleveland offers up are going to be flawed.
Thanks for reminding me Frazier and sheffield were the return for Miller I had forgotten. Big swing and a miss there and I think they were both like top 50 prospects.
…but will the Orioles trade any of their prospect capital?
I feel like they should since we all know only a percentage of prospects “pan out,” so take advantage of the resources they have to get someone who meets a need. Of their touted prospects so far, Adley, Gunnar, Grayson looking very strong, Westburg, Cowser, Kjerstad struggled a bit as young guys will, and likely not all three will work out. One of them and another system top 10 should be enticing since nobody is meeting Chicago’s price.
“the Orioles just need to let the White Sox know that a prospect or two are off limits”
None of Holliday, Basallo, Mayo, Kjerstad, or Cowser should be available for 2 years of a guy coming off of a 97 ERA+ in 2023, whose BB and K rates have both been trending in the wrong direction for 3 straight years.
Don’t think putting the plus at the end of era makes it any more relevant. His Last 3 year FIPs are 3.41, 3.10 and 3.72, and his “declining K rate” is still 11 and only declining because he led the league at 12.3 k/9 in ’21. This is well documented, but the Sox defense was horrific last year and hurt all their starting pitchers.
Cease lost 1 mph on his fb, but spin rates are still high and he’s shown to be very durable.
If the Os don’t trade ANY of the guys on your list, they will not get Cease and they will bow out early in the playoffs because Cole Irvin starts game 4.
Obviously they aren’t trading Holliday, everyone else should be discussed/ considered.
2 years of a reclamation project like Cease simply isn’t worth a Basallo or Kjerstad or Mayo level prospect to me (or Mike Elias I suspect).
If someone else wants to overpay for a declining #3 starter like Cease, they are welcome to it.
Actually you are incorrect about Irvin starting a game 4 if Cease is traded for.
They have Bradish, Rodriquez, Kremer and then Cease.
@bobby mongan – Yeah, I was saying they should make the trade so they could avoid having Irvin as the game 4 starter. Sorry if that wasn’t clear. And I have a hunch that if they got Cease, he would start earlier in the series, definitely ahead of Kremer, but to be seen.
You’re still wrong. Cole Irvin wasn’t on the post-season roster in October. At best, he’s their 5th starter.
I’m going to try to help you all by describing the term “hyperbole”. Yes, we could definitely argue each point, but does a ‘Dylan Cease for 2025 prospects’ make the Orioles better in 2024? OF COURSE!
Cease would start game 3 unless grayson somehow doesn’t build off his second half success and has a mediocre year, which would push cease to 2. Mentioning kremer as even a possibility ahead of cease is laughable, and I’m not even a cease proponent.
@King Floch, As a fellow Orioles fan, I get the idea of not trading too much for Cease, even though the White Sox undoubtedly will ask for a lot for him. Although I do think that an overall bad clubhouse atmosphere in Chicago deflated the numbers of a decent amount of their players, including him. But still considering the Orioles have a massive glut of middle infield and outfield prospects who are most likely blocked from getting a lot of MLB playing time, is there a different pitcher you’d rather see the O’s trade some of these guys for?
Cease would most likely make the Orioles better in 2024, but he still isn’t worth a Holliday, Mayo, or a Basallo level prospect IMO (and probably Mike Elias’s opinion too).
I would still make a fair and realistic offer though, say Jordan Westburg, Kyle Stowers, Mike Baumann, and a pitching prospect like Juan Nunez or Trayce Bright, but that is probably about as far as I would go for a guy with only 2 years of control and as many question marks as Cease has.
Jesus Luzardo, Trevor Rogers, Bryan Woo, Bryce Miller, Logan Gilbert, and Shane Bieber are all guys I would prefer over Cease at the current pricetag Getz seems to be demanding.
Hey King – FYI, your offer isn’t enough, and again, you don’t get it. There are 6-8 teams interested in Cease, so if Elias (as you appear to believe) truly thinks that is enough, then you will end up again with 95 or so wins and a first round exit. It SUCKS to give up prospect capital, especially when you’ve spent the last 5 years excited about all your picks, but now is the time to turn the prospects into really major leaguers, not just prayers.
The Orioles need to add (at least) 1 starter, and if it isn’t Cease, then it needs to be one of the free agents (that they won’t pay for).
Like my nonna always said – you can’t take it with you.
Could you be any more scattered than this email? Take a quick peak at trade simulator and tell me if these pitchers are in the same ballpark with each other. Hint: They aren’t.
Luzardo – 63.3
Rogers – 25.5
Woo – 28.2
Miller – 25.9
Gilbert – 65.9
Bieber – 5.6
So – You aren’t getting Luzardo and Gilbert, Bieber would be a fill in for one year and you could get him for very little, and rogers, woo and Miller are all much lower value than Cease who is valued at >40.
Do you even watch baseball?
If 2 MLB ready everyday position players who both still have 6 years of control and graduated as top 5-8 prospects from the best farm system in baseball (including 1 who reached top 50 overall prospect status in Westburg) plus 2 interesting young pitchers are not enough for 2 years of Dylan Cease and his career 4.0 BB/9 then I can live without 2 years of Dylan Cease.
He would be a nice pickup for the O’s but he just isn’t worth the kind of insane overpay that Getz and CWS fans seem to think he’s worth.
And I honestly don’t care about that silly little trade simulator website’s opinions. Like, not one single bit. It’s purely for entertainment purposes and it still manages to fail pretty miserably at that (except when you’re laughing your butt off at the ridiculously one-sided heists you can come up with). I never said that those guys I listed would cost the same anyway. Obviously the difference in value between one year of a declining Bieber and 3 years of an ascending Luzardo is astronomical, I didn’t think I had to spell that out :-p
I think the Orioles have more than enough prospects to get Luzardo or Gilbert, but they’d have to be willing to part with one of their top 5, which they don’t seem willing to do.
So deal Disabled List Hall and Santander Bank. Hall is a disappointment (so far) and Anthony is nearing the end of his contract.
Why would a rebuilding Chicago want 1 year of Anthony Santander? He might interest Miami or Cleveland, but not the White Sox.
Hall is an interesting trade candidate though. He looked great out of the bullpen last year but Elias says he still views him as a starter long term. If he can stick in the rotation for someone, he’s still got the stuff to be a legit ace.
Keep talking like that Floch and Kyle Braddish will be starting on opening day.
“Keep talking like that Floch and Kyle Braddish will be starting on opening day.”
Oh no, not that!
(LOL)
Kyle Bradish > Dylan Cease!
Agreed, Curt.
And even if the Orioles do acquire Dylan Cease, Kyle Bradish will still be the guy starting on OD (and rightfully so since he is better than Cease).
Orioles have no place for Cowser to play and no real need for him.
Good gosh man. Other teams are trying to win. Get on the bus…..
Except Cowser is very clearly the Orioles’ LF of the future, possibly as soon as 2024 (Austin Hays is a FA after 2025 and will likely be traded before that anyway).
So yeah, Cowser isn’t going anywhere, at least not for a reclamation project with only 2 years of control like Dylan Cease.
Orioles are loaded with young outfielders Cowser wouldn’t be missed at all.
You talk about Cease as if he stole your girl. He’s a good pitcher. Instantly the Orioles best pitcher if they acquired him.
Colton Cowser was a top 5 overall draft pick and is presently MLB Pipeline’s #14 overall prospect in baseball. Mike Elias didn’t tank his butt off for years to get high draft picks to use on elite talent at the top of the draft just to turn around and trade that elite talent for declining reclamation projects.
Also, Bradish and GrayRod are both better than Cease at this point.
Declining reclamation project?????
Dude did he not sign your ball at a game?
His K and BB rates have declined for 3 years in a row, his fastball velocity is down, his slider is weakening, and he posted a 97 ERA+ in 2023.
So yeah, if the shoe fits…
2 years fella. 2 years and he LED THE LEAGUE in K rate in 2021. So he was basically guaranteed to “decline” in 2022. You are using his success against him which is ridiculous and lame.
Cease was GREAT in 2021. Absolutely and indisputably.
He has declined for 2 Consecutive years since then though.
If someone else wants to wildly overpay for him based on a peak from several years ago that he will never return to, then that is their business, I just don’t want it to be my team.
He has declined for 2 years not 3 years and the decline is from when he was one of the best pitchers in baseball. Again LED THE LEAGUE in K rate how can he do anything but decline?
Several years? No fella it’s 2 years. We just covered that.
Even calling 2022 a decline is misleading. Yes, his K rate went down a bit and BB rate up a bit, but xFIP, SIERA, ERA, WHIP, BAA all improved. 2023 was the real step back.
Yeah, I worded that poorly. My bad.
Nonetheless, decline in multiple statistical categories for 2 straight years, fastball velocity down, slider’s effectiveness down, coming off a below average season, and so on. Cease is currently a WIP, plain and simple, and WIPs with 2 years of control are not worth what Chris Getz is asking for according to every available report. I’d still give up a really nice package for the opportunity to fix him, but I wouldn’t be open to moving the truly top shelf guys for that opportunity, and I’m not going to lose any sleep at all if that means we don’t get it.
2 years when he started as the best in one of those categories you mention. That’s not a decline at all.
The White Sox defense sucked lqst year it made Cease look worse than he was.
I just took at some of their prospects #s at aaa and it’s insane. And that’s the 5 guys behind Holliday. It really is crazy.
AAA flags fly forever
Y’all haven’t been paying attention.
It’s the white sox asking price is the problem. between now and the trade deadline, cease stock will only go down, and teams w prospects- their value will go up. So why pay thrice the price today ?
And there’s no way white sox deal w Yankees. Why would they need financial relief ?
You are correct to say that they haven’t been paying attention. I read through all the comments and only one person mentioned the White Sox want pitching. That was their ask from the Reds and because it was exorbitant the Reds have pulled out.
Sounds great hopefully the Orioles trade all their top prospects for Dylan Cease coming off a bad year.
Mike Elias isn’t Dan Duquette, so I doubt any of our true top prospects are available, much less several in one deal.
Hey the White Sox can have Carlos Rodon back!
As long as the Yankees pay entire salary, White Sox will be all over it.
Bingo!
Cease has the potential to make the O’s rotation one of the best in baseball. Bradish, Grod, Means, Cease, and Kremer is about a strong a 5 as you can get. I agree with you. The O’s need to figure out what guys they will not deal and give up whatever it takes of the remaining guys to get it done.
There is a chance that Baltimore’s sheer depth can hurt them if they have more than one or two untouchable prospects. If they have 3-5 untouchable guys outside of the established MLB youngsters, then Chicago is likely to balk at what the Os are willing to part with since they have so many other options. If Chicago is gonna reade their ace controlled for 2 years, they expect the return to hurt the recipient. If they think the Os aren’t hurt by the return, they’ll try to get more until it does.
Baltimore can offer a ton more but they also don’t spend like the NYY so they need those prospects more than NYY because they’re cost controlled. Baltimore can offer the world it doesn’t mean they will or should.
Saying Kyle Bradish showed “encouraging signs” is ridiculous. The guy was legit and finished 4 in Cy Young voting. O’s rotation could have DL Hall or Tyler Wells also.
I think it is because Bradish was never projected to be as good as he was last year. He was solid all year. If he puts up that type of consistency this year it will be tough not to consider him elite.
A top of the rotation of Bradish, Rodriguez and Cease has the potential to not only be the best rotation in the AL East but all of the AL.
Throw in a healthy John Means, and the rotation looks really good. Kremer can hold his own as well. They still need one / two inning eating pitchers though to lighten the load for the youngsters.
Bradish was very good last year and if he can repeat that, then he has the potential to be an indisputable ace and was slightly better then Gausman last season (the Jays ace). Rodriguez on the other hand is still an unfinished product with loads pf potential. Cease, as many have pointed out is a bounce-back candidate.
Based on last years numbers, If Cease or G-Rod were placed in the Blue Jays rotation, their performance from last year would slot them in as the #5… which is to say the Jays have 4 pitchers who performed better then your proposed number 2 and 3 pitchers.
All things be equal, the addition of Cease would still leave the O’s several country miles behind the Jays for best rotation in the East.
Having said that, the O’s offense is hilariously superior to the woefully impotent Jays offense so in a head-to-head match-up of teams overall, the O’s are still the better team.
Bang on take. Both fanbase seem to have similar hopes. O’s are hoping for progression and bounce backs from their SP’s to take the next step. Us Jays fans are looking for bounce backs and progression from our lineup.
I love the jays but they will be looking up at the O’s in the standings for the foreseeable future. I dont believe it will always be 10+ games behind but the O’s will keep improving the next few years. I am not confident I can say the same for the Jays.
What was the season series between O’s and Jay’s? 10-3 O’s? It wasn’t all about hitting!
I never said it was only about hitting, rather that hitting was the single biggest reason why.
Baltimore pitched well, sure, but the offense was able to out-hit the Jays good pitching.
The O’s Getting big leads routinely against an opponent helps the pitchers since the opponents start squeezing the bats trying to score runs to catch-up.
“Encouraging” is about right for Bradish. Manoah finished top 4 once too and Bradish had one proven season.
I like the Os a lot ! But they def overachieved last season. There’s pitchers w control available for a much cheaper price than cease presumably in Miami. Or go sign clevinger but if Os want to win a 100 games again – they need to get deeper w their starting rotation
Bradish’s success in the second half was because of a new pitch he hasn’t thrown ever before. A filthy 2-Seamer; 97 mph, w/ late and dramatic 2 plane break.
He already had a live 4-seamer, and nasty Slider, but adding a 3rd pitch that’s equal or better than his rest of his arsenal made him go from very good, to dominant.
The make up of him on the mound is just as loud, in that he’s cool, deliberate, not ruffled, and composed. Some of the best body language of a SP on the bump.
2023 Bradish turned into a TOR guy, whereas before he was looked at as less then Dean Kremer.
Grayson’s mid-seadon injury from 2022 sure looked to be the reason he struggled early. At the time, many said that pitchers with that injury take about a year to round back into form. Sure enough, about a year after the injured in 2023, Grayson of AAA showed up doing the same thing in MLB. Grayson’s track record in the minors is consistently great ..and the second half was more of his Minor league success levels.
Grayson’s outlier was the first 2 months in MLB, not his 3 month finish (which mirrors Minor league numbers much better).
It’s still only one good year. Winning a cy young doesn’t make you great the next year. Let alone finishing in 4th.
Tyler Wells was excellent, until he tired out. He could pitch just as well for even more innings this year
@RedFraggie Sometimes the literarture on this site is questionable at best. You are totally right that saying Bradish showed “encouraging sings” was ridiculous. If he was a Yankee or Dogers, then there would be no question in his ability. Good luck to your team this year.
Could only happen if the sox overvalue the yanks prospects like the yanks themselves.
I’m not sure why people think that the Yankees are the ones that go around placing valuations, or over valuations, on their prospects? Teams have their own scouts, and plenty of independent actors like baseballtradevalues.com and fangraphs, that are placing value on prospects. Every team hypes up their system and they guys they drafted and developed and believe in. Should the Yankees come out and say that their prospects suck, who wants to make a deal?
Could be the last piece of the puzzle for NYY. Prospects are getting thin tho
Yankees don’t have the prospects for Cease. Even the idiotic Chris Getz is smart enough to ask for a good return for Cease. Now Baltimore though, that’s a team with a lot of good prospects…
Just depends on how highly Baltimore views its prospects compared ho how highly the White Sox value Cease.
Pretty sure Jackson Holiday is untouchable for Baltimore, but they’ve got other good prospects to work with.
Holliday, Basallo, and Mayo are likely untouchable under virtually any circumstances, with Kjerstad and Cowser not far behind. My guess is that none of those 5 are actually available for 2 years of a diminished Cease.
That still leaves the Orioles with the ability to put together a very strong package, however, with guys like Westburg, Ortiz, Beavers, Norby, Stowers, Willems, Horvath, and Fabian potentially on the table.
“Smart enough” ? The return he’s looking for is idiotic and shows his incompetence
Big Whiffa,
The bar is very low for Getz. I expect incompetence as he has no freaking idea what to do.
Yankees have plenty of prospects to trade for Cease, they just don’t want to trade them. I think that they could trade Dominguez for lots of guys to lots of clubs, they just aren’t going to do something so stupid. It is silly to suggest however that the Yankees have zero prospects. Every team does.
Pass, unless the White Sox have significantly lowered their asking price
This is how I feel as an Orioles fan.
I’m just not all that interested in trading elite young talent like Samuel Basallo or Heston Kjerstad for 2 years of a reclamation project like Cease.
I wouldn’t call Cease a reclamation project. He’s still a good pitcher just not a great one like the White Sox seem to think. They’re valuing him based off his dominant 2022 season and that looks to be an outlier at this point
If you look at what they supposedly wanted from Cincy (which is another draft/prospect loaded team), then there is no way the O’s should make any trade for Cease.
Cease would be a good fit on a few teams. The Yankees and the Orioles have the excess prospects to make a major move. It is a question who has the will. The Yankees would be smart to move on Cease because of the health issues in the rotation after Cole.
The Orioles seem to be wasting an opportunity. They have the guys to deal to go get a Burnes or Cease to strengthen and take pressure of the two young guys like Bradish and Rodriguez. They could have a scary team.
What do the Yankees have left to trade that Chicago would want vs. what Baltimore can provide?
You’d have to think Dominguez and/or Volpe are on the table.
If that’s the case then it’s not a convo non-starter bc the Yankees have plans next season for them both. Spencer Jones plus more arms would be the ask.
Well their not on the table at all, their off. Maybe the Orioles can trade Jackson Holiday straight up for Dylan Cease? Exactly not happening.
If they were, a deal would be done already!
Never happen for Cease
Of course not! If either of those players had been offered for Cease, Chicago would have dropped Cease off at the stadium already!
There’s no question Baltimore could outbid the Yankees for Cease. The real question is will they? I believe (and I could be wrong) that Bal is very, very reluctant to trade anything close to what Getz wants for Cease, which is the only reason the Yankees have a shot here.
On the flip side, although I am a big fan of Cease, given his previous injury and his performance last season, I can understand why Bal would be so reluctant.
Imho, Cashman is more desperate and will be more likely to overpay. But, I’d be shocked if Dominguez or Volpe were even considered. I think it would be a Jones, Hampton combo. Honestly, I hope they don’t do that because I am very high on the Jones kid….his tools are incredible.
@YC, I actually came to the comments section to see if anyone had posted Jones/Hampton as a trade idea and to do so if not.
You’re right, though, that Baltimore could easily outbid that, even if they held back on Holliday, Cowser, and Basallo.
But as for people saying Cease is a reclamation project, I think they’re ignoring advanced metrics, durability, and his low cost. He was worth 3.7 fWAR in 2023 (vs 4.4 in 2022), so while there was a dropoff, it’s not like he fell off a cliff. With a better defense behind him, he can at least be halfway between his 2022 and 2023 versions, and that’s plenty valuable.
Hyrax: I agree, I’m not so down on Cease either. He still has incredible stuff and it’s why teams are so interested. I’d love to have that guy, but I seriously doubt the Yankees will trade the requisite personnel, if they were able to.
Interestingly, I’ve read about the Yanks taking on Moncada to mitigate Cease’s cost….do the Sox want to get rid of Moncada that bad? I really like Moncada and his potential.
Yankee Clipper,
Moncada is a headcase. He’ll have moments where he looks good at 3B and then he’ll fumble the ball. His bat is erratic, but I think a more structured environment will do him good. He’ll make baserunning mistakes too, but I blame the terrible player development team for that.
Thanks Acoss. Presumably that’s why the Sox want to be rid of his contract then… it makes more sense.
Man, I still don’t see a Yankees-Sox match here with the way Cashman operates, but I could be wrong. Plus, there are several teams that could match or exceed a Yankees offer for Cease, unless they want to be rid of the Moncada contract, which would narrow the field quite a bit.
If the Sox did, it’d be more about his lack of effort at times being a bad influence. Given this is his last guaranteed year, I think he’ll be plenty motivated, though. If that’s true and he’s healthy, a deadline deal seems more likely. He also played well after coming back from injury last year, though it was a small sample size, so there is some reason for optimism.
All that to say, no, I don’t think it’s very likely they’re packaged. Sox want prospects more than salary relief.
Trade values says Jones for Cease 1 for 1 is fair. I gotta believe the Yankees would do that if that was the deal.
Joel, man, as much as I like Jones, at 1-for-1, I think I would do that. I imagine the Yankees would too because of their SP needs.
Yeah that’s a deal that makes sense for both sides I think. The White Sox really need outfielders they need pitching but also outfielders.
Fwar uses fip, which isn’t defense dependent.
0 chance a 1 for 1 trade here with 2 years of Cease. Zero…
Spencer Dominguez maybe but probably 3 player minimum and the Yanks were 16th to 25th in Farm systems before the Soto trade depending on what list you read. If NY doesn’t win in 2024 things could get ugly fast if Soto leaves, Cole opts out etc…maybe looking at another 15years of drought then.
Agreed Clipper. Cash is not going to trade his crown jewels, but we do need pitching, desperately.there’s not one guy in the rotation I trust other than Geritt Cole, maybe Schmidt to be a number five ,but that’s about it. I do not trust Rodon will live up to the expectations. He couldn’t seem to handle the fans last year, did not deal with his injuries and incompetence, with any sort of grace whatsoever. Nester is always injured. So who do we really have, we need to get major league bodies in here to pitch. It might be an overpay, but I would be in favor of Schnell or Bieber also. otherwise, as you said, the prime year of our MVP, Cy Young, award winner, and likely one year rental of Soto ,is wasted yet again.
But don’t forget the Yankees have different priorities than the fans. As long as the gate receipts are there, they don’t consider that they are wasting their prime years.
You mean vs what the Orioles are willing to give up, right? Every team in MLB “has the prospects” to acquire Cease. The question is which team is willing to pay the asking price?? As a Yankees fan, I hope it isn’t the Yankees!! I don’t think he is worth it. But to answer your question, the Yankees, like every team, have a long list of players that other teams would be interested in.
I am also interested in Camila Cabello. The Yankees have few good prospects they would trade here, so there is no story here.
Doubt the Yankees have the means or will to meet their exorbitant asking price.
Where is the evidence that Dodgers are “still involved “?
Funny way to spell cardinals…
It’s a pretty dominant mustache to add to the team. Not sure who else they can get with that kind of upper lip upside.
The Yankees have the prospects to trade, plus can throw money in and could also absorb a contract such as Yoan Moncada’s. Baltimore can offer prospects, but not much else.
Cease isn’t the kind of player a team will just give up for unloading a bad contract….not unless he’d be a half year rental, which he’s not. Moncada hasn’t been terrible either considering how contagious bad results were for the team as a whole the past year, and his contract isn’t a long-term one. The Yankees don’t have the prospects needed to compete with teams who do, unless those teams are reluctant to give the prospects that the White Sox want.
Trade values has Cease at 40 million in value and Moncada at negative 10 and I believe both are pretty accurate. For the White Sox saving 25 million in 2024 for a 10 million dollar cost makes sense.
Sox want players, not cash. Cheap as Reinsdorf is, he’s not shedding Cease just to get more money.
The WS are not owned by Charlie Finley and this is not the mid 70s. They care less about cash and want prospects. The Yankees do not have them like the Orioles or the Reds. Who were being asked for some of their best that are already at or were on the team last year.
Geez the yanks interest is starting to look like the RedSox interest ….. everybody!
“Yankees interested in….. “
Breaking news! Yankees connected to everyone for clicks!
Do the Yankees really have interest in Snell and/or Cease or are they driving up the price for other potential suitors?!
Consider their awful woebegone season in which they barely finished above .500. There’s a lot of pressure for them to compete, and their rotation could use upgrades. I think it’s legit, but I also think they’d rather get Cease than pay a hefty lux tax premium for Snell. Cease is at least durable.
Good question , who knows . The Yankees apparently every year have some minimal interest in everyone, whether it’s serious interest is another story. We usually find out that it is not.
Rangers
If they don’t get Montgomery, sure, but I think he’s justifiably their top priority.
Hahahahha Yankees can’t sign ANYONE!!! so they are looking to TRADE shocking this is hilarious watching the Yankees struggle to sign anyone of merit. Sure, Rodon, injury ridden and so far a bust… Montas? Yea him too but he’s gone. When will people start admitting that the Yankees are having issues signing players?
Well, it’s a valid point, but the issues don’t stem from players choosing other places first, imho. It’s that the Yankees refuse to pay (in both prospects and contracts) what the market dictates, which has been an issue for several years now, and left the Yankees in their current conundrum, burning Cole’s and Judge’s best years.
Cashman is so beholden to their analytical valuation that he can’t improve the team enough to win.
I’ve said for years now, one of Cashman’s biggest faults is that he needs to win each trade, instead of making the necessary moves to win on the field. This year, he finally started to make necessary moves with Soto/Grisham, and Verdugo. It could very well be too little too late.
“It’s that the Yankees refuse to pay (in both prospects and contracts) what the market dictates”
They just gave Rodon a stupid contract and re-signed Judge last offseason and have been top 3-5 in payroll for how long? What are you even talking about? Yankees fans are ridiculous.
Would the Yankees take Getz instead of Cease?
Whaaat ?
The Yanks are interested in a pitcher ?
Pretty sure this article is a re-run.
I would bet Cease starts the year w CHI and gets moved at the deadline. Theyre asking for multiple pitching prospects and not many teams have that kind of package especially the Yanks after Soto trade.
Yeah, Getz seems to be acting like he has 2 cheap years of prime Kershaw for sale instead of the guy coming off of a 97 ERA+ with declining K and BB rates that he actually has.
It’s like he’s trying to price himself out of his own market lol.
Andujar and Frazier for Cease should be able to get this deal done.
That’s well past a stale comment at this juncture…..Yanks aren’t the only team that misses on prospects pal……..exactly how many yankee fans do you sit next to when you go to a Rays game?
Someone’s bitter, must’ve really hit a nerve
No, just tired of the same old stupid attacks….why not add in Refsnyder while you’re at it…….
Now we’re on the “Yankees interested in [fill in the blank]” articles.
Well…not much happening in Miami right?
@rocky7
Apparently not much in NY also right now either. The only difference, they create these articles to keep NY hype going and fans interested, while in Miami, we don’t need that sort of pacifying.
Also, Yankees have more needs than the Marlins.
Well not to get into a match with you…..maybe that’s because there are no less than 20 or so medial publications and the intense media eyes on NY sports demands daily stories….how many cover the Marlins…………..I guess you guys don’t have much to do….and exactly how many titles do the Marlins have in their name……and you say the Marlins don’t have the same needs as the Yankees…LOLOLOLOLOLOL
Marlins have two World Series titles – tied for the most for expansion teams…in far less years of existence than the teams they’re tied with.
So are you one of those Yankees fans that will chant the number of titles they have, while you’ve only been alive to see a small number of them – if any at all depending on your age?
And last I checked, the Marlins made the Playoffs while the Yankees didn’t. I think that kind says the Marlins have less needs than the Yankees. But we can look at the holes in the rosters if you want. The Marlins only need a SS right now. How many holes do the Yankees have – even after they have already filled some with some moves?
Not sure they’re interested in fill in the blank….
JK… Serious question for you as a Marlins fan though. With Luzardo on the table for trade, what do you feel would be an acceptable return from the Yankees, if at all?
Start with Gleyber Torres and we’ll see where talks go from there.
Miami would NOT be interested in Gleyber Torres
Oh yeh…..”lets start with Gleyber and we’ll see from there”….the usual over valuing of a pitcher in a pitching need market from the home fan base……..Miami was the one that was originally interested in Gleyber so now you Miami fans think he’s Cy Young incarnate…….wow
Gleyber makes a ton of money and is not very controllable. Starting pitching is more valuable due to the shortage…especially young, cheap, controllable starting pitching.
Not overvaluing. What has the Yankees issue been in recent years besides the many injuries? Pitching. Marlins were a Playoff team, and have pitching.
Baltimore is gonna end up with Stroman & he will be a 20 game winner & Top 3 in Cy Young voting.
I have insincere interest in Dylan Cease.
Orioles are a great win-win match. Getz has to make sure he has some intel on the mental makeup of prospects he seeks to turn around the culture from a selfish/me first one. If they go primarily off BA rankings or any other groupthink hype like the last regime, Elias will take them to the cleaners. Hope it works out.
Montgomery do not scare,,,Snell is a former CYoung winner
Getz can’t screw this up. He needs to get a realistic return. His whole job will depend on this deal.
The fact he hasn’t been traded means Getz is asking for an unrealistic amount. Guy is a joke.
He needs to shift his ask to primarily position players. Had he done that with the Reds, a deal might have been reached. Baltimore is likewise light on pitching prospects, but with a wealth of position prospects.
Given Cease’s durability and that he’s averaged 4.2fWAR over the last three years (3.7 last year), it’s not unreasonable to say he should hit a total of 8 over the next 2 years combined. At $8M per, that’s $64M of value vs a salary expectation of $8M this year and double that at best in 2025. So that’s $40M in excess value. He can’t make a ludicrous ask like Holliday and Cowser, but it’s also wrong to lower his price too much, especially as the number of quality available starters continues to shrink.
Westburg, Ortiz and Povich? Like the concept of a real defensive SS in Ortiz and someone WSox don’t have to develop “as much” with the first.
Please Yankees get this done, so that my O’s don’t over pay for a one hit wonder.
I don’t see a trade with the Yankees due to their recent trade with San Diego but a trade with the Orioles seems more realistic.
The only way a deal with the Orioles is realistic is if Getz gets serious and lowers his reportedly sky high asking price for Cease. Mike Elias isn’t suddenly going to forget that he is one of the smartest GMs in MLB and agree to be taken to the cleaners, so Getz needs to stop goofing around and accept that he isn’t getting 3 top 100 prospects and then some for 2 years of a guy coming off of a 97 ERA+ in 2023.
You keep mentioning the ERA+ like it’s some sort of magical damnation nobody can argue. It’s not. It’s his ERA, which was definitely influenced by shoddy defense behind him, vs the league average. FIP was 3.72 vs 3.10 in 2022. fWAR was 3.7 vs 4.4 in 2022. Yes, he was worse in 2023, but you’re sounding like he took a nosedive and would only be worthy of Baltimore’s #20 prospect.
There are encouraging signs, sure, but there are also reasons to be wary of giving up a king’s ransom for him. Having a better defense behind him would almost certainly help, but OTOH, his very mediocre walk rate is likely to hurt him a lot more in the ferocious AL East than it has in the much tamer AL Central.
I’d still be willing to put a solid offer together and roll the dice on our staff being able to get more out of him than the ChiSox did, just not at the cost of any of our top 5 (Holliday, Basallo, Mayo, Kjerstad, Cowser). That would still leave plenty of desirable talent with which to build a solid trade package- Westburg, Ortiz, Beavers, Povich, Norby, Stowers, McDermott, Horvath, Fabian, etc.
Understood take. The hurt of putting 1 of those guys you put in parentheses as the headliner is what likely puts it over the line……and of course not Holliday.
Not to mention Cease has been throwing to one of the worst framing catchers in baseball the last few years.
yeah, that’s it. wait till the RoboUmps call the balls and strikes. framing will be a lost art.
Mentioned above…..but perhaps Westburg, Ortiz and Povich? Dealing quality from depth while not its giant fish.
I’m not sure I would do Povich (arguably our #1 pitching prospect) if we’re giving up Westburg AND Ortiz, but I would do Westburg and Ortiz+.
Maybe like Mike Baumann and Juan Nunez instead of Povich? Baumann is an interesting arm with 5 years of control left who has started and done both short and bulk relief that is going to start running up against roster crunch in Baltimore pretty soon but could get a good, long look for a rebuilding team like the White Sox. Nunez is a high upside but significant reliever risk kind of guy with a big fastball that could get even bigger in short stints.
With the asking price for Cease I don’t know that NYY has the prospect capital to do a trade that the Sox would accept. Unless the asking price comes down Cease will still be on the south side next year.
Spencer Jones, Roderick Arias, lottery tickets, serious cash considerations, ptbnl get it done.
The Braves missed out. Between the fake mustache sales and promotions for Cease and Strider, they would’ve had enough to extend Fried easily. Instead they went for the Sale.
Not sure if the Yankees got enough in there system to get Dylan
Feels a little like the White Sox leaking some nonsense to drive up the price for the Orioles.
^ bingo.
Well, the Reds wanted him, but the White Sox asked for everyone’s liver for compensation.
Naturally the Yankees are interested in Cease but so is every other team in the MLB not playing in Oakland or Seattle. Do they have the prospect to entice the White Sox?
Jones and Hampton should be enough to at least start the conversation. Might require a little more, but the Yankees can get this done if they’re motivated enough.
Cease is better than he showed last year, but the White Sox will want a return commensurate with a peak performer. I get the money thing for the Yankees. but does anyone think that, given where the Yankees were last year, and the roster they project to have, they will be a top contender in 2024, where a good Cease could make a difference? There remain a lot of questions about whether poor performance last year will repeat itself. Yankees had 11 players with more than 200 PA, and only two, Judge and Gleyber, had OPS= of 100 or more. How much bounce back will they get from Rizzo (34) Stanton (34) and DJ (35)? Soto is a terrific player, but a lineup with five or so weak spots…
Rizzo started last season on fire, cooled down, and became ice once he suffered his concussion. DJL play well down the stretch tweaking his bat once he recovered from nagging injuries. Stanton is a mystery. A full season of Judge, Soto, and Verdugo will markedly improve their offense which was their greatest weakness. Volpe and Wells should improve with more MLB experience. The Yankees still need a power bat off the bench.
Agreed bleacher creatures. The offense will be Marketky improved over last year, and with a healthy judge and Soto and Verdugo in the mix, it should make the rest of the players, better, with less pressure on them to perform. I don’t know what to expect out of Rizzo after his concussion, and post concussion syndrome can recur at any time, but I do expect that he will be better than he was second-half last year, so that’s an improvement right there even if it isn’t the old Rizzo. I’m more worried about the pitching, or lack theyof,because after Gerrit Cole, it’s all huge?
The Yankees saw the stache and said “he’s one of us”
Yankees weakness is HITTING ,,,always and every years
White Sox always get a ton for their players it seems. Maybe it feels like that because I’m a Tigers fan, but I can’t believe how much Atlanta gave them for Bummer. It’s crazy that they’re in the position they’re in, but I dig it
Cease will probably make $10M annually through arbitration the next 2 years which outs him at about 45th spot in starting pitchers salaries. Baltimore/STL and the Dodgers all have a glut of prospects that are blocked at the MLB level and have the capital to make a trade. Baltimore are like the Cubs, let’s make people believe we can build a dynasty by pumping up prospects until their value diminishes because they can’t play at the MLB level. STL as an organization just wants to be better than the Cubs, Reds and Brewers. I see the Dodgers unloading prospects as they are all in and what’s another $10M on the luxury tax for them.
Baltimore isn’t like the Cubs. That’s preposterous. The one awesome thing about Baltimore that’s undeniable is that baseball hasn’t figured out what Elias and his crew are doing. Two seasons ago they were supposed to be trash again and went on to compete until the last week of the season. Last season they were supposed to regress from “overachieving” the previous season and won 101 games and the AL East against a savage Tampa team. You can’t compare this Orioles team to anything yet because they’re not nearly done making that window even bigger. Everybody talked trash about ‘em last year not adding a high priced free agent pitcher. Again, Elias and co. made a lot of folks eat their words. Baltimore is like the Cubs. GTFO
Hard pass for the Yankees unless it’s for peanuts. He’s a back of the rotation pitcher who will only get you to the 6th inning occasionally. Plenty of 2 and 3 IP starts that would tax the bullpen heavily.
It’s just not the right guy for the Yankees rotation. They need innings desperately now. Outside of Cole who is taking the ball every 5th day and getting you through 6 IP? You NEED consistent and reliable SP to win in baseball. Same as today as it was 100 years ago.
If the Yankees were signing Monty and grabbing another reliable starter to sure up their top 3 SP’s then I would say it’s worth a flier.
This will be another, Pineda, Vazquez, Gray, Montas, Weaver, Paxton and the list goes on. This type of guy NEVER WORKS OUT for the Yankees. Yet Cashman keeps going after these types.
Guys who fall into this category now…Cease (big time) and Lazardo. Guys with big time stuff who’s advanced numbers say they should be better but will never be better in the Yankees system.
It is a waste of prospects trading for guys like this. It just weakens the farm system so the Yankees don’t have the guys to make a trade for a stud or have the depth when guys get hurt.
“Carlos Rodon & Nestor Cortes have the potential to be excellent contributors”? Put down the pipe, please. I don’t get trading King, who when healthy made that Yankees staff competitive. Cease won’t cut it. Yankees need cease and desist. At least.Too many outfielders and not enough arms.
Well, Twins still need SP badly. Doubt the White Sox would approve a trade within the division so I’m still crossing my fingers for Luzardo or some other young controllable pitcher…
NY doesn’t have the farm system for a Cease trade ranked anywhere from 16th to 25th depending on whose list you look at but suffice it to say the only way that even remotely happens is if they use their #1 prospect and whoever else might be left? Completely draining their system. A team like the O’s #1 Farm, or Boston #3 Farm are much more plausible IMO.
The Yankees are trying to acquire the Avengers of MLB mustaches so they can Thanos them out of existence. Just another reason to hate the Yanks!
Some of these takes are hilarious. The White Sox wanted 3 prospects all in the top 70 from the Reds but Yankees fans think they would get him with not a single prospect in the top 70.
I would not do Cease for Spencer Jones, straight up. Some of these delusional proposals have the Yanks doing a 4 or 5 for 1 including Jones, Perriera, Hampton all in the package. Cease is a nice pitcher. He has had an up year and a down year. He has had well-documented control issues. In the hands of Matt Blake he might reach his full potential. But he’s not Sandy Koufax.