In recent days, MLBTR has taken a position-by-position look at the remaining free agent class (catchers, shortstops, center fielders). We’ll turn now to first base. There’s some overlap at the very top of the market.
- Cody Bellinger: Bellinger is more of a center fielder, but he logged over 400 innings at first base for the Cubs last season. Playing him there regularly isn’t ideal — a good portion of his value lies in his ability to play an above-average center field — but a signing team could rotate him through first base on occasion. Bellinger, 28, is coming off his best season since his 2019 MVP campaign. He hit .307/.356/.525 with 26 home runs across 556 plate appearances. His batted ball metrics (a 31.4% hard contact rate, 87.9 MPH average exit velocity) aren’t as impressive as one might assume from his 25+ homers and early-career power impact. Yet his 15.6% strikeout rate last season was a career low, a marked improvement after he fanned in a quarter of his plate appearances between 2020-22. Bellinger declined a qualifying offer from the Cubs. Chicago has been linked to him throughout the offseason, while he’s been tied to the Blue Jays, Giants and (more loosely) Angels as well.
- Carlos Santana: Santana remains a capable veteran option even as he approaches his 38th birthday. He has posted roughly league-average offensive numbers in each of the last two seasons. Santana split the 2023 campaign between Pittsburgh and Milwaukee, running a combined .240/.318/.429 slash with 23 home runs through 619 plate appearances. He has walked in over 10% of his plate appearances in every season of his career. It’s not eye-popping offense for a first baseman, but Santana continues to play strong defense. Defensive Runs Saved graded him 11 runs above average in more than 1100 innings last season; Statcast put him two runs above par. Santana is also a respected clubhouse presence, evidenced by reported interest from his former teams in Seattle and Pittsburgh. The Brewers had also kept in touch with him this offseason but agreed to a two-year deal with Rhys Hoskins this week.
- Brandon Belt: As he has been for most of his career, Belt was a very productive hitter against right-handed pitching last season. He signed a $9.3MM contract with the Blue Jays and turned in a .254/.369/.490 slash with 19 home runs through 404 plate appearances. While he struck out at a career-high 34.9% clip, he also drew a walk more than 15% of the time. Toronto used him almost exclusively in favorable platoon situations. That helps the overall batting line, but Belt remains effective in the role he was asked to play. He’ll be 36 in April and has battled knee injuries throughout his career. He’s likely to take one-year deals at this stage. His camp should look to beat last year’s salary, perhaps seeking something in the $12.5MM range which Joc Pederson recently landed from the Diamondbacks.
- Joey Votto: After 17 seasons with the Reds, Votto will soon join the second organization of his career. Cincinnati has sufficient infield depth to move on from the former MVP, and president of baseball operations Nick Krall has publicly confirmed that as of now, the team plans to do just that. Votto wants to continue playing as he enters his age-40 season. He has been a replacement level performer over the past two years, hitting .204/.317/.394 since the start of 2022. That’s at least partially related to shoulder injuries, as he underwent rotator cuff surgery in ’22 and missed time last summer with shoulder discomfort. Votto still has excellent awareness of the strike zone. He won’t break the bank, but he could find a major league offer to mix in at first base and serve as a veteran clubhouse voice. The Blue Jays have been tied to the Toronto native, as have the Angels.
- Garrett Cooper: A right-handed hitter, Cooper is a first-time free agent. He’d been a quietly productive offensive player for a few seasons with the Marlins. He was amidst an uncharacteristically middling season (.256/.296/.426) when Miami shipped him to the Padres at the deadline. The 33-year-old hit .239/.323/.402 over 41 contests in San Diego. His .251/.304/.419 platform showing wasn’t particularly impressive, but he ran a .274/.350/.444 slash between 2019-22. While Cooper drew reported interest from the Brewers last week, that’s probably off the table with Milwaukee signing Hoskins.
Honorable mentions: C.J. Cron, Donovan Solano
I’d love to see Santana or belt in a Padres uniform
Santana would be my preference. Both are solid fits though.
What is Santana likely to cost? He might be a fit for Boston as a Turner replacement assuming the cost is 50%. When you’re buying with food stamps, some items simply aren’t eligible.
More than Joc Pederson.
Santana is a Padres killer. He single handedly gave us 2-3 losses last year.. He and Manny are buds. Get him over here.
I would question cost vs gain here. Are his numbers that much better (or better at all) than Cronenworth’s?
No.
Over the last 3 seasons
Cronenworth – 109 OPS+ 9.9 WAR (less than 1 dWAR)
Santana – 94 OPS+ 3.7 WAR
Cooper – 109 OPS+ 2.0 WAR
Threw in Cooper just for comparison sake. Since Cronenworth WILL be playing 1B for the Padres unless they pick up someone exceptional in trade, that means if they signed Santana, Cooper, or whomever, they would be the Padres DH. So all we need to know is how they hit.
Don’t most players already sport a belt with their uniform?
Padres have a 1B. What they need is a DH and Santana would be a good one. The problem is that he would cost more than Joc Pederson, so that is a no.
Cody Bellinger, the center fielder turned first baseman extraordinaire, has my heart racing. Who cares if he’s more at home in the outfield? A little infield action could be just the spice his MVP-caliber career needs. The qualifying offer drama with the Cubs is like Shakespearean theater — gripping and full of suspense!
Carlos Santana, the ageless wonder, is the true embodiment of ‘league-average offensive numbers.’ It’s like music to our ears. And that strong defense? I can already see the Gold Glove glittering in the distance.
Brandon Belt, the maestro of favorable platoon situations, is a symphony of strategic plate appearances. A 34.9% strikeout rate? Mere background noise in the grand orchestra of his $9.3MM Blue Jays performance.
Joey Votto, the seasoned veteran, is like the fine wine of first basemen. A replacement level performer, you say? Perhaps he’s just waiting for the perfect moment to unleash his age-40 magic. The drama of a potential move after 17 seasons with the Reds? It’s the kind of storyline Hollywood producers dream about.
And last but not least, Garrett Cooper, the right-handed hitter who had us all on the edge of our seats with his uncharacteristically middling season. What a plot twist! Will he find a new home after being off the Brewers’ table? The suspense is unbearable.
You’d make a great columnist. I appreciate your positivity. Maybe a GM will read this and be swayed.
Yeah, he fits the Yanks like a glove.
Nobody is signing Bellinger as a 1b. That’s just a bonus. He won’t be a full timer for another 5 or 6 years.
It should be mentioned that Bellinger had a plus 5 DRS at first last year in 421 2/3 innings, while he had a minus 3 in centerfield across 686 innings.
Outs Above Average had him at plus 4 in center.
One has to wonder if his performance in center might be slipping or if it was just a down year.
This. Bellinger as an elite CF is a bit of a myth. He was only briefly elite and last year was about average. Remains to be seen whether that’s a real decline or a blip, but to say that “a lot of his value is as an above average defensive CF” as the author of this post writes, isn’t accurate. As he enters his 30’s, he’s a 1B or a corner OF. I think this is one of the reasons no one’s coming near his demanded price.
Some guys are just great with the glove wherever you put them. Their athletic ability just plays.
It’s rare that teams would give a lot of importance to 1B defense, but, if any do, Dom Smith would probably get another shot.
If you saw the Pirates of 2022 using anyone with a glove at 1B you quickly come to appreciate a guy who knows how to play the position
Crazy that Carlos Santana has amassed 301 homeruns and 1011 rbi…an excellent and unheralded career.
Because Santana doesn’t hit for high average he is often overlooked but he knows the strike zone and draws a good amount of walks to go along with his occasional power
The way things are going letting everybody in eventually, a lock for hof
Who of Helton/Mauer/Beltre are you opposed to having been elected?
Beltre in. Helton and Mauer in the hall of very good not quite great.
Should the hall be limited to the greats of the greats only. ?
Mays Aaron Schmidt Bench Henderson et al ?
Lot of hall members a definite notch below the greats of the greats.
I was obviously sarcastic about Carlos.
It’s all ( hall voting ) subjective though of course.
Personally I feel Hall should be a bit more exclusive. But it’s just an opinion.
We all have one 🙂
The way Belli is being blackballed and swept under the rug by the powers that be and by the fans in general is an outrage.
He should have a 8 year/$350 million+ contract already weeks ago.
He’ll be signing in Japan and playing with Bauer.
Alot of people say that Trevor should be back in MLB headlining a top rotation (like back in Dodger Blue) and its hard to argue with them when you really think about it.
@Beach Fan
I am one of them but I doubt he’s coming back. Again, I’m not suggesting he’s the second coming of Drysdale or Gibson? No, not at all, but he’s worth being in the rotation.
He’s not being blackballed. He had one bounceback year after several really bad ones and there were a lot of red flags attached to the bounceback. Front offices have every right to be cautious.
He’s a full fledged superstar, and I want for you to acknowledge it.
Acknowledge that he’s a Boras client. We wait.
He’s being Borasballed.
Scott is a great person and has nothing to do with it
Thanks Mr. Boras, it means a lot coming from you.
The powers to be ruin everything 🙁
Is that you Scott Boras?
Dom Smith is a solid to excellent 1b defender who I’d pegged for bigger things. It seems I’m wrong on this one, because Dom has just not shown enough with the bat to get even a minor league invite imo. of it. . He had his best chance last year with the Nats but he just didn’t grab hold of it.
I don’t think he’s being blackballed per se, but I do think everybody assumes or is too concerned a long term deal would be a disaster for anybody to roll the dice beyond 1-2 years.
I bet most teams would happily give him 1 year/$30M or 2 years/$55M or something.
I’ve said it before, I’ll say it again- I think Bellinger is a guy who could justify a series of 1-2 year deals at $25M-$30M per season based on the previous year’s performance, but would be an actual risk on say 6 years/$165M. I think he could actually earn that exact kind of money (6 years/$165M) on a series of one to two year deals from 2024-2029 even if he can’t get that guaranteed long term.
Some players just give off that vibe to teams. There have been a few guys who were really really consistent and worth every deal but could only get 1-2 years at a time for nearly a decade, while some other guys have one good year or the market experiences collective psychosis and gives them $140M+ on a long term pact without the track record to justify it.
Baseball is just weird like that sometimes.
@TrillionaireTeamOperator
Bauer has said in the past that he’d prefer 1 year deals with high pay instead of the 10 – 12 year deals that never work out for clubs.
Yeah I remember when Bauer said that- and I have wondered aloud about it myself, but as others have pointed out- it’s fine when it’s one or two players here and there, but to do that with more than that would throw budgets into disarray and make it way too complicated for teams year over year- and it would potentially nullify the future value to clubs from a static AAV that technically increases in cost effectiveness as it ages- as in, $25M five years from now is cheaper than $25M today- has slightly less buying power, etc.
If player contracts increased year over year across the board it’d make budgeting a nightmare and it’d prevent virtually any contract from ever being cost effective.
@TrillionaireTeamOperator
I’m just saying that he’s probably more than willing to take a lower $-amount right now on a 1-year deal I don’t think it’s going to happen but I’d like to see a team take him on for 1-year. Base case, he provides ace level ability and potentially can be flipped at the deadline and worst case, he’s not good and was only a 1-year commitment.
*Lower*? As in overall, as in less than $160M or $200M? Because I can pretty much guarantee, if Bellinger decides to go the one year deal route, he’s going to try to maximize the value on that deal, up to like 1 year/$37.5M, top Correa’s 1 year deal by a smidgen.
I’m talking about Bauer not Bellinger. That was my original topic.
Ohh, okay, see, this is one of those conversations where one guy goes “so, I’m talking about apples.” and the other guy goes “yes, oranges.”
I was not referring to Bauer at any point and there have been other guys besides Bauer who’ve taken 1-2 year deals for a higher AAV and bet on themselves to do well enough to get another 1-2 years, etc.
Lets be honest- Bauer never really played long enough to actually prove his assertion- he never played on any higher AAV 1-2 year deals, really, so his comments are irrelevant.
Bauer is kinda like Rendon in that regard- they both basically said “I want five to ten year deal money for one or two years so I don’t have to actually play for the kind of money I want.” and teams went “psh, sure dude. We will pay you top dollar, but we ain’t paying you $75M or $100M a year or whatever, just so you can reach whatever your financial goal is without putting in the service to justify our investment. Might as well just ask us to hand you a billion dollars and allow you to retire with no services rendered.”
Meanwhile- there are plenty of players who’s careers were largely defined by 1-2 year deals and they probably did manage to get higher salaries for the shorter pacts.
I think Bauer would be willing to take a MLB minimum deal if it was offered. He has rightfully had no offers.
“8 year/350 M”…Only 8/350M?..I feel Belli is worth AT LEAST as much as Ohtani at 700M. He’s not overreaching at all and his slimy agent/lawyer would never lie about his injuries or his real value, so we should take him at his word that Cody is healthy, generational and UBER valuable.
Cubs would give him a two year deal at 30 million per year in a heartbeat with a no-trade clause and an opt-out after year one.
Maybe Cubs will take a gamble and go 5-6 years at $30 million per year with multiple opt-outs.
PCA needs a year or two to get his bat ready so any opt-outs after that don’t bother me.
I would put a healthy CJ Cron over all but two of these guys.
Healthy is the operative word here, and I agree. Maybe just Belli above him in my book, tbh.
Platooning in Toronto would probably be the best scenario for Votto’s production and sentimentally. Just kind of sad to see these farewell tours (like Miggy and Wainwright and Molina) when these former stars are well past their prime.
I thought the Angels were kicking Votto’s tires.
I feel like Bellinger was only included on this list because the remainder of the list were three guys nearing the end of their careers and Garrett Cooper. Also no honorable mentions for Yuli Gurriel, C.J. Cron or Ji-Man Choi?
That Said, the Nate should be in play for any of them as possible trade chips at the deadline. Cooper makes sense for the Guardians as a RH option (they were linked to Yuli Gurriel so they are looking). Seattle could use some First Base/DH help, same with the Padres.
This is a very underwhelming bunch, unless Bellinger has one of his rare big years. The rest are all past their prime and are still best bench Dey’s.
Belli will end up playing on a 1 year deal after reportedly(Morosi) turning down 5/160M earlier this off-season.
Do we think he actually turned down 5 years/$160M!?
I think MLBTR and the Athletic projected like 6 years/$144M.
I find it incredibly hard to believe he turned down half a decade at $32M AAV at this point.
I know he’s reportedly seeking like 7 years/$200M-ish, but does Bellinger really think he couldn’t match that if he accepted 5 years/$160M?
If he’s turning down 5 years/$160M because he wants 7 years/$200M, seems like he thinks or knows he wouldn’t be worth either deal and thus wouldn’t be able to get 2 years/$40M five years from now.
Which, let’s be honest, if things keep going the way they’re going with baseball economics, he might actually be able to get like 2 years/$65M five years from now if he proved to be even borderline worth a 5 year/$160M deal at the conclusion of those terms.
“Do we think he actually turned down”..I’m just telling you what I heard on MLB Network. If Carlos Correa once turned down 275M when he was represented by the William Morris agency, I can certainly believe Cody Bellinger turned down 160M because he wants another 40M+.
Projection on this site for Bellinger were 12/264
mlbtraderumors.com/2023/11/2023-24-top-50-free-age…
It would be a waste to put Bellinger at 1B. I can understand a little if they are worried about durability, but he is still fairly young. I would imagine whoever signs him won’t be signing him as a 1B.
Cubs should sign Votto. Dude could be in an iron lung and he’d still mash at Wrigley.
Votto hasn’t “mashed” in years, but he will get you 3-4 walks a week. Hard pass on the over the hill Canadian.
Too bad Bellinger to AZ wasn’t possible. Dbacks would never have sanctioned a deal for that kind of money. Would’ve been cool to see him return to the Desert though.
If teams would just bring up prospects and “start the clock” the vets would have less leverage and sign more reasonably priced contracts. Almost every organization has to have a young corner IF/ platoon type 1B/ OF nearly MLB ready.
Yes, I get that baseball is a business.
Santana would be great for the Angels. Veteran presence for young catchers and production on offense. He can play 1B and Dh.
Bellinger is a very good first baseman though. Far above average.
people and their metrics.
Cody’s hard hit and exit velocity suffered because he put the ball in play so much that it flatlined his average.
Who cares if a guy has higher of both if they strike out 30% of the time,
Take Gio Stanton, he has a hard hit rate of 48% but if you look at his event stat it sits at 248. Cody’s sits at 424, that’s why his numbers appear softer but Cody didn’t bat 300 hitting Baltimore chops all season long.
As a TV viewer in SoCal, I’ve seen Cody play hundreds of games while he was here. The Dodgers let him walk after 2 horrible seasons and some of the ugliest swings you’ve ever seen. Cody’s not really an “oppo” guy; he wants to hit bombs.
However, defensively, he was beyond a “plus” rating. He covers a lot of ground, isn’t afraid to leave his feet and his arm is above average. He has above avg speed as a base runner and CF-er. Cody still carries that potential to mature into a special player.
I just don’t think it will happen with the Cubs. A good move for Cody would be for him to go to a winner. For example, I could see Cody going to the RANGERS as an FA and they will trade off Leody Tavaras. If the $$numbers are good, Cody is a dynamic CF and going to a winner IMO would help him.
I think many people in LA wouldn’t disapprove of Cody returning to the Dodgers should James Outman hit a wall; and the RANGERS might listen to a Cody deal.
Cody’s problem isn’t Cody, it’s Boras. No way would Boras allow him to sign with the Dodgers for what they be willing to pay him.