Today marks the four-year anniversary of one of the White Sox’s better moves in recent memory. On January 2, 2020, the Sox finalized a $50MM extension with Luis Robert. The right-handed hitting center fielder had yet to make his MLB debut but was a consensus top prospect.
As shown on MLBTR’s Contract Tracker, the deal was then the largest ever signed by a player with no big league reps. It marked the second straight year in which the Sox inked a record-setting contract with a player before his debut. Their 2019 deal with Eloy Jiménez, which guaranteed him $43MM over six seasons, hasn’t necessarily gone as the club envisioned. They had far more success with the Robert extension.
The contract ensured Robert would open the 2020 campaign as Chicago’s center fielder. While that might have happened regardless on the heels of a monster showing in the high minors, there was a possibility of the Sox keeping Robert in Triple-A long enough to secure an additional year of club control. (Under the previous collective bargaining agreement, there were fewer incentives for teams to carry top prospects on the Opening Day roster.) The extension bought out their six-year control window while tacking on two team options to add two high-upside seasons for the organization.
Robert had a solid but not overwhelming debut showing, hitting .233/.302/.436 as a 22-year-old during the shortened season. A hip flexor strain interrupted what looked like a breakout showing in his second season. Robert was out of action between May 4 and August 9. Around the injury, he put up spectacular numbers. He raked at a .338/.378/.567 clip with above-average defense in center field. His power numbers took a step back in 2022 but rebounded last season, when Robert turned in the best performance of his career.
The 26-year-old finished ninth in the majors with 38 home runs. He hit .264/.315/.542 overall, more than compensating for a middling strikeout and walk profile with huge power. Robert also put his excellent athleticism to use on the bases and defensively. He went 20-24 in stolen base attempts and received strong grades for his 1207 2/3 innings in center field. Defensive Runs Saved pegged Robert as six runs better than average, while Statcast rated him 11 runs above par.
In what was a disastrous season for the Sox overall, Robert was a rare bright spot. He earned his first All-Star nod and a Silver Slugger at year’s end. He finished 12th in AL MVP balloting, the first time in his career he received down-ballot recognition for that award.
That stellar showing led to a bit of chatter about Robert’s potential availability in trade. White Sox general manager Chris Getz stoked those flames early in the offseason when he said there were no untouchables on a top-heavy roster. While Getz has never entirely walked those comments back, he clarified at the Winter Meetings the Sox would set such a high bar in talks that he had “a tough time seeing him wearing another uniform next year.”
Even as the White Sox entertain trade possibilities on the likes of Jiménez and starter Dylan Cease, there’s reason for Chicago to more or less take Robert off the table. He’s the team’s best player, for one. Yet a trade would have been easier to envision if not for the extension. Robert has four years of MLB service. If Chicago hadn’t signed him to an extension (or kept him in the minors to delay his service clock in 2020), he’d be two years from the open market.
Instead, they have him under control for another four seasons. Robert will make $12.5MM next season and $15MM the year after. Chicago holds affordable $20MM options on his services for the 2026-27 campaigns. His combination of star upside and extended control window makes him one of the most valuable trade assets in the sport. Moving Robert would signify a full teardown. Trading Cease, who is controllable via arbitration for two seasons, is more in line with a shorter-term “retool.”
Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.
Would love to see him on the Astros with his best friend Yordan. What a pair they would be.
Any trade for him might require Yordan in return!
Mets grabbed the last dingleberries off a barren HOU farm for Verlander.
I don’t think there’s nearly enough left for Robert.
I suspect Houston is going for one more shot at a ring with this group, but with Bregman likely leaving after 2024, and Tucker seemingly intent on testing free agency after 2025 (I think that’s when his arbitration years end), then I can see the Astros going for another rebuild after this coming season. The Rangers rise along with the M’s might make the timing right to take a step back.
Would love him playing CF for the Rangers. That glove and power is a killer combo. White Sox would get an insane haul for him.
It would probably be Wyatt Langford and more, at which point I think Langford’s minimum wage salary and RoY draft pick ability make him more desirable for a club that has spent recklessly on luxuries over needs. They still have literally no consistently good clutch relievers (Yates/Burke/Sborz are volatile and Leclerc was never clutch until the 2023 playoffs).
Curious, what luxuries-over-needs do you mean? Are you talking about your namesake deGrom? : -).
While the Rangers aren’t my team, I would certainly defend the signings of both Seager and Semien, no matter how the back end of the contracts turn out. The true value comes at the front end, with the goal of a championship. Mission accomplished. The Rangers now should look to incorporate more of their prospects, who are low cost, but have high-end potential. Langford is one of them. They’re cost structure is going to go up now, that comes with winning, so players like Carter and Langford will be key.
Robert ain’t going nowhere!! That same prospect haul will get you Dylan Cease. Let’s talk!
That’s okay. I’ll hope Langford turns into Trout with a real arm in the outfield, and the Sox can let Cease put up a 2.00 or 4.50 ERA season the next 2 years. I’ll take Wyatt “Trout” Langford and more over Cease. Some guys are worth more to fans than to other teams, and Cease may be like that.
The extension was a genius idea!
It’s what the White sox have been adept at: their mo is signing win-win team friendly deals with prospects which lock up their core. While there’s always risk if players get injured, like Eloy-Yoan-TA, more often than not, it buys out arb years and provides unproven prospects with generational wealth while providing the team with cost certainty. It builds goodwill between players and club: the Sox were able to get hometown discounts from the likes of Buehrle and Konerko. It’s also generated huge surpluses which can drive trade value: the prospect hauls for Sale, Quintana and Eaton were largely a by product of the undermarket contracts each was inked to. More teams should do this! One only look at how the club on the opposite side of town went about treating their World Series core: bad blood with Kris Bryant by playing games with his callup to gain that extra year, while within the team’s right based on the CBA, nevertheless poisoned the relationship
In my view, Chris Sale once had one one of the 3 best contracts in baseball, along with Goldschmidt and Carlos Gonzalez (Carlos Gomez, also nicknamed “Cargo,” was pretty good value for arb deals too). He was on my top wish list in the early 2010s. Arguably the most underpaid player in MLB instantly became the most overpaid player in baseball once he switched his “sox” and short thereafter got a big extension. It evens out for him, but certainly not for fans of either team.
The White Sox jumped off the Sale a year too early. And the Red Sox jumped off a year too late? Worth it? Red Sox justifiably got their World Series and banners last forever as the saying goes but that’s a pretty extended bout of overpay hurt
Flags fly forever, but your username seems to indicate you haven’t forgiven Theo for something after the Cubs won the WS.
Perfect fit for the Angels! I doubt they have the chips though…
White Sox could rebuild almost entirely from Cease, Robert, and one or two others (if teams are willing to pay the prospect capital, of course).
I do wonder, have the White Sox been the most underachieving team with the talent they’ve had?
I’d say the Angels have that honor.
It’s a valid argument; both had a lot of talent that just couldn’t come together and win.
The Padres, Mets, and Yankees also come to mind (last 2 seasons largely).
This was supposed to be a five-year window of contention for the White Sox, but they crashed and burned so freaking hard it’s almost incomprehensible to me how they went from being a fantastic team in 2021, to mediocre at the end of 2022 and just hot garbage right from the beginning in 2023.
And yes, they should absolutely trade Robert and Cease and replenish the farm, but even then the player development has a lot to prove, especially considering the current GM couldn’t develop anything of value in his tenure.
All true, Acoss. Each preseason I was very high on them because of their talented team members. I’m frankly surprised. As a fan, what do you think is the biggest contributor to not playing to their potential? I mean, I know they’ve been hammered by injuries, so I assume that’s a big part of it. It’s a shame they didn’t get to demonstrate the talent to its full potential though.
For one getting Tony LaRussa to manage was a mistake. Great manager but he was not up with the times, especially with a more boisterous clubhouse full of young Latin players, he was way too old school. I don’t mind an old school manager, but Tony was a jerk, his press conference after every game always had something snarky to say.
Then they hired Grifol, did not like the choice, would have preferred Joe Espada, coming from the Astros a team that has consistently developed their guys and had a winning culture. And it shows, Lance Lynn and Middleton confirmed the lack of structure in the clubhouse last year. Grifol is still there, and Getz is in charge. No change in culture in sight. Sorry for the rant lol
They had no depth. They spent money stupidly and then weren’t able to fill glaring holes. They’ve needed a 2b for a half a decade.
Trust me, bro, I get it. I vent about the Yankees too, and they have really had one bad season since 2016 (‘23). But…. That’s why they call us fans, right!
across: The five year rebuild started in 2017 with a core of Giolito, TA, Moncada and Abreu. In 2019 they added McCann and Eloy. It took three years to get to the PO. The rebuild was then stopped cold when Reinsdorf, going over his GMs head, fired manager Rick Renteria and hired his buddy larussa. Riding on the coattails of what Renteria built, the Sox made the PO again in ’21. But LaRussa had so demoralized the players they began to backslide. I knew before ST in ’22 the Sox were not going to make the PO. When LaRussa mercifully had to leave, first-time manager Grifol was hired. He didn’t have the know-how to turn things around. jr likes to say that he spent a lot of money, but he spent it wrong, giving players like Grandal, a terrible C from day one, more than they deserved. This year he cut the budget, leaving Hahn to sign dfa’s almost exclusively. Then he got rid of most of the core under the ruse that they would be FA. The thought of extending any of those players was out of the question. Then why did they trade Burger when he was under control for three more years? This off-season he has cut the budget even more. We get players like Fedde. Maldonado. If Getz wants to make this team good again, he would get a good group of prospects and build around Cease, Robert, Moncada and Eloy. Instead Getz has collected a bunch of rejects and has-beens. This isn’t a retooling. This isn’t a rebuild. This is a disaster.
And what Avenger said- wholeheartedly agree and yes, they could have rebuilt around the core of Cease, Robert, Yoyo and Eloy and I’d even have added TA and Gio on prove it pillow contracts. TA was happy to move over to 2nd and remain a core part of a reboot, and Gio was eager to return to the Sox even after the trade, given his comfort level with the clubhouse and the city, given his relationship with Ethan Katz and the fans. In hindsight, while allowing Jose to walk was the financially prudent thing to do, one questions the loss of a pros pro on the culture as the grindy Andrew Vaughn, while a much better value, is sort of a wet blanket personality wise. Think you’re right tho, unless Getz is some evil genius , I think he’s blowing everything up just so he can.
Yes, thanks to injuries which robbed most of the positional players of their prime: there was a brief 2 year window where a core of TA, Eloy, Moncada, Robert, Abreu and Yaz was ready to go places. Sadly that core was never fully healthy at the same time save for the 21 season. Injuries. Oh that and drunk Tony.
Great extension for all involved.
Roberts got generational wealth and security. The Sox got a really good player at an affordable rate.
How do you expect this guy to feed his children on only $50MM?!
Slow news day.
The comment section on the Robert extension is funny. Many calling this a smart move but also many saying it was an overpay. The people calling for Madrigal and Moncada to get similar extensions, didn’t age well.
We haven’t had a second baseman – not just a good second baseman, a second baseman – since they traded Madrigal for that waste of space kimbrell after the 2021 season. Going on three years and counting.
Not sad they let go slappy Madrigal, as he’s limited on all sides other than his acute ability to churn out singles- but yeah, they should have gotten much more than Craig Krumbel. Seems like a Kenny move
Worth it, but now Lou Bob is stuck in Southside under terrible ownership.
Doubt Robert will be traded. I don’t see anyone that will offer the package that makes this worthwhile.
As for Cease, ask for the moon and don’t settle for less. I have no issues with him being on the 2024 White Sox,
200 K’s has been the floor for 3 years straight now. Potential ace for under $10 mil has some serious value and then add another year of control.
Agree save on having no problem if he’s on the 2024 team. Unless he rediscovers his 2022 form, his value will decline. Best time to trade him is this off-season.
AS a Giant fan, I would welcome a trade for Luis Robert Jr. It would include Luciano, Matos, Whisenhunt (or Harrison) Meckler, Slater, Conforto (with pay down on his contract), Birdsong and Bart.
Would that be enough?
Pete,
If I were Getz, I’d say yes, but to be fair I only know of Luciano and Harrison, not very familiar with the other players you have. Besides Conforto, who would probably fare well at a hitter-friendly ballpark like Guaranteed Rate Field. (What an awful ballpark name…)
across: We’re not contractually obligated to call it GRF. I call it Sox Park.
acoss13 — I visited the Park a few years ago when it was U.S. Cellular Field. It is one of my least favorite parks in all of baseball.
Pete,
That’s fair. I just like it because of the parking, and it’s easier, for me at least, to get Sox Park. But once you sit down and start taking in the game, I will say Wrigley Field is better.
acoss13 — It may have changed, but I thought the park felt like a mausoleum. At the time you couldn’t walk around the park or change levels (they closed off access), the food was spotty at best.
I was not at the old Comiskey but it had a more traditional feel from afar. Wrigley, of course is a gem (as is Fenway) but my favorite parks currently are Oracle and PNC. Both gorgeous and completely accessible (although parking at Oracle has become an expensive drudge).
Cease’s problem has been lights out stuff combined with an unwillingness to pitch to contact. High risk- high reward sequencing leading to high pitch counts and exits by the 6th inning. Even in his brilliant 22 season, he had an abnormally high number of non quality starts given his high walk count, high pitch count, and large number of unearned runs leading to early exits. Maybe with a team that provides him with the 4 or 5 run cushion, like the Braves or Dodgers, he settles in and realizes his full potential- but I’d say buyer beware to clubs expecting him to be the ace: he fell way short in his limited playoff reps.
How’s this for a Ideal L Roberts to the Atlanta Braves. That would be fun to watch.
What’s your proposed trade? With their farm, even getting Cease would largely gut it.
Given that Aaron Bummer yielded a 5 for 1, you’re probably talking a full 40 for Cease and Robert. And not a 40 of Schlitz Malt Liquor
Getz has no idea wtf he’s even doing
In fairness, Reinsdorf meddles way too much for his own good. He claims he wants a quick turnaround, then gives Getz a shoestring budget and (I’m assuming) tells him to not shop Robert. If that’s true, he’s done reasonably well so far. Defense has undeniably improved and Fedde might be a hidden gem if his new arsenal translates. I blame Reinsdorf more for the lack of meaningful moves than Getz.
As jagsmanohman pointed out, Getz is clueless. I’m sure the other 29 teams know this. Instead of getting top prospects for Cease and, shortly, Robert, teams will offer mid-tier players at best and Getz will gladly take them.
The boost in defense could actually really result in a huge rebound season and considerably boost Cease’s value. That and having the pitch lab combo of Bannister and Ethan and coach in training Maldonado get Dylan to trust his stuff and stop tinkering around the edges. Know Dylan is cerebral and likes to call his own game but if he pitches to contact more and can even get in to the 7th consistently, now you’re talking budding ace.
Maldonado is probably the “Manager in training”. Perhaps working with catchers, followed by bench coach after retirement.
What Getz should have done is sign Maldonado as a coach. He’s needed there and not behind the plate, even though with the Cs we’ve got, he’ll probably end up as the starter. We haven’t had a C who could catch AND hit since Pierzynski in, I believe, 2012.
In all honesty, let’s wait to see how the Bummer trade shakes out. This one could be one sided, in the Sox favor when it’s all said and done.
Robert
Cease
Moncada
For
Armstrong
Alcantara
Brown
Morel
Funny-the return for Robert alone would be several blue chips much better than the names listed here…….and they would have no issue eating Moncada’s salary for just ’24 to make sure a return isn’t watered down. Throwing Cease in the make-believe is odd on top of that.
Trade simulator says its fair. Armstrong is the big valuable piece he’s a major league ready guy who plays great defense and can run the bases well.
Any simulator can be manipulated to make what would be an unrealistic trade for the buyer to get the prize.
PCA will be lucky to be a mediocre hitter at the ML level-no one smart is biting on him being a major piece to get a starter or Robert.
Horton and quite a bit more is what it would take for Robert..and let’s face it WSox won’t deal Robert crosstown.
This is what complicates trade proposals so much. To be fair, although BTV’s simulator is far from perfect, it is one of the very few objective (meaning not subject to fan interpretation of value) trade evaluations we can use.
But there’s another significant problem: each team has their own internal value of their players as well as other teams’ trade pieces, which is dependent on the team’s analysts. One glaring example of that is Brian Cashman & Fishman, who seems to get it wrong so often.
So, can the BTV simulator be disastrous with certain player valuations? Yes. But is it better than fan interpretation of value often times? Also yes. Got to have a starting place for trade proposals and that’s as good as any.
I don’t think the White Sox have any issues trading Robert to the Cubs. And heck Cease is a former Cub himself.
Armstrong has a high floor because of his defense and baserunning. He’s a 4 win player with a 700 OPS.
It might take more like Horton instead of Brown. And that’s fine. I think both teams line up for a trade really well.
Yeah I try and look at the simulator but also use my common sense. I think it might take more than the offer I proposed to get the White Sox guys just because they have that name value like Soto did for the Yankees. And I think the Yankees did fine with their deal even if they kinda need to replace the pitching they lost. The White Sox really need to do a full rebuild and this trade along with a couple more including Jiminez and Kopech would help them.
Simulator for Robert alone here that is supposedly less getting back for WSox:
Reds-Mclain, Lowder, Petty…….get very good everyday player since they can’t develop them and couple high end arms hoping 1 of them pans out
Orioles-Westburg, Cowser, Povich
Cubs-Hoerner, Horton, Wicks……same concept as Reds
It would hurt, which is why tough to make a deal when a star has 4yrs of affordability.
I think it would be hard to get Hoerner. I know he won a gold glove this year. If he can play 2b, I’ll take him even though he’s a cub. I’m just afraid that Getz is not going to get what Cease is worth. We haven’t had a second baseman. for two years. I doubt we’ll be getting one next season either.
White Sox wouldn’t package Moncada and his negative trade value as it would just lower their return on their two best trade pieces.
hyrax: Moncada is an outstanding defensive player. He showed what he could do offensively in 2019. Then he got COVID in 2020 and that effected him the next two seasons. This year he suffered a back injury where a disc hit a nerve. It wasn’t some bruise and he didn’t want to play for a couple of months like another third baseman I can think of. That cost him some time. When he came back he started hitting again, more like he did in ’19. I’d take him on my team any day.
Always been a fan of Moncada. Perhaps a change of scenery can reignite his offense?
Yankees are in need of a 3B, and although a trade for him won’t ever happen, I wish Cashman would seriously pursue someone Moncada.
I’m with you on Yoan. Up til now, along with Robert, the only elite glove they’ve had on the field. Night and day difference between he and Jake at the hot corner. Damn shame what happened last year, he was one of the stars of the World baseball classic- making the all world team then having his back act up. As Avenger said, when he finally recovered over the last few months, he was hitting at an +800 OPS clip and seeing pitches with his patient approach. Invaluable on a club starved for guys who can hit from the left side. Thankfully, Pedro and hopefully by extension Getz, see him as a central piece to any reboot.
Solid defense alone isn’t worth $25M, meaning he has negative trade value. I know he finished strong offensively, but that’s a small sample size. He’s had one good year and one solid year. That’s not enough for me to want to risk 25M on the hope of a solid season if ‘m another team. Certainly not enough to increase the prospect return as well.
The Sox could have Brooks Robinson at 3b and still sell him if he makes more than $3m. They’re both some of my favorites.
White Sox could take that 25 million or so he’s making and spend it in 2025 or 2026 when they are trying to compete again.
Testing!
’25 or ’26? I’m afraid we’re going to have to wait a lot longer than that to get out of 100+ loss column.
They could be a decent team then. Not saying a playoff team. Maybe like 74-77 wins.
The Cubs would laugh at that trade. I would ask for Horton, PCA and Morel and hope the Cubs bit, but again, I doubt it highly.
George Kirby for Luis Robert
Sox probably want Bulk
Harry Ford, Cole young, Gabriel Gonzales, Emerson Hancock for Luis Robert
Felix is ours and you can’t have him, remember how well that worked out
The Sox are trying to build a culture around pitching, speed and defense. Trading Roberts now would defeat that purpose.
The only defensible arguments for keeping him are if the Sox can compete while there’s still at least two years left on his deal (dubious) or they feel no team would offer up the package they want, i.e., that his trade value would be fundamentally the same next year at this time, barring injury or unexpected regression. Trading him doesn’t defeat the culture and other solid defenders can be brought in for less. Trading him does, however, rebuild the Sox’ mediocre farm system and give them a legitimate shot to compete in 3-4 years.
Not sure you need to panic about the mediocre farm system, recent baseball prospectus piece has the Sox along with the Cubs as among the fastest movers in farm system rankings. While for the Cubs this means a top 3 or 5 system, the Sox are already forecast to move from the bottom of MLB to the mid-teens, with at least 4 top 100 players – largely thanks to last summer’s fire sale. Baby steps
Update, Bleacher report has updated the White Sox farm system to #16, Fangraphs to #12
I believe the Sox have control for 4 more years. He’s one of the best (young) players in baseball. Robert is the type of player you build around.
No need to panic.
NoNeck: If that was true, why is our rotation currently comprised of Touki Toussaint, Erik Fedde, Scholtens and…? In the bullpen is…? Other than Robert and Moncada, where is the speed and defense? And, if you noticed, there’s no talk about offense.
They are in the first stage of a rebuild. The catchers probably hurt more than helped the pitching staff over the past few years. Grandal was one of the worst everyday players in MLB over the past two seasons… a total disaster offensively and more importantly, defensively.
You conveniently left off some names:
Jul 30, 2023 · “Beyond Dylan Cease and Michael Kopech, projecting the 2024 rotation is difficult. For starters, Garrett Crochet would like to be in White Sox’ rotation in 2024.”
I’m assuming Cease will be gone, traded for peanuts. Kopech was terrible in his last several starts, challenging Lynn for most HRs given up in a season. For some reason, lefties seem to be more susceptible to arm injuries than righties. I was afraid from the first time I saw Crochet pitch he was headed to the operating table. I hate it that I was right. So much potential. I don’t know if he’ll be a starter, but why not? People blame pitchers for lasting only five innings, but it’s the manager’s fault. They don’t want their SP to face a lineup for a third time. So basically, SP are long relievers. To me, the rotation will be Fedde (the ace), Scholtens, Kopech, then maybe Crochet. As for the fifth, I have no confidence in Getz or Grifol as to who they would pick. Oh, and you’re right about Grandal. Even Grifol knew how bad a C he was, using him strictly as a DH in the second half.
As said before could be a decent team once Colson and Bryan is called up. AV,AB, LRJ, CM,BR could be a decent core at best.
For every Luis Robert gamble, there’s a Scott Kingery gamble. Glad it worked out for them.
Robert Jr. – 2024 AL MVP!!
Or Jon Singleton
Mets make sense. Robert’s and Cease for McNeil and his friendly contract and C Kevin Parada who is blocked by Alvarez.
What? I would hope Getz hung up the phone immediately.