As we arrive at a major date on MLB’s offseason calendar, here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on around the baseball world throughout the day today:
1. Arbitration Exchange Deadline
The deadline for teams to exchange salary figures with players eligible for arbitration is set for today. The deadline was reportedly moved up from its original date of Friday, January 12 last month via joint agreement between MLB and the MLBPA, though news of the change only broke for the first time last night. A deadline for players and teams to come to contract agreements avoiding arbitration has been set for noon CT today, while salary figures will be exchanged by 7pm CT this evening. While teams and players can continue negotiating beyond the exchange of salary figures, teams have increasingly opted for a “file and trial” approach to arbitration in recent years, cutting off talks on pure one-year deals once figures are exchanged.
Today’s deadline should spur plenty of activity around the league throughout the day, as every team in baseball has at least two players with whom they’ll need to come to an agreement this afternoon or exchange salary figures with this evening. Most notably, each of the Orioles, Rays, Blue Jays, Yankees, Marlins, and Dodgers have ten or more such players. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projected salaries for all arbitration-eligible players back in October. Yankees star outfielder Juan Soto leads the pack this year with a projected salary of $33MM that would break the record set by two-way superstar Shohei Ohtani last winter.
2. Could the market for starting pitching pick up soon?
With left-hander Shota Imanaga off the board after reportedly agreeing to a four-year, $53MM deal with the Cubs, could more movement on the starting pitching market be on the horizon? The trio of southpaws at the top of the starting pitching market this winter has been whittled down to two as only Blake Snell and Jordan Montgomery remain available, though it doesn’t appear that either player is close to signing at the moment. That said, rumors have begun to pick up in recent days regarding right-hander Marcus Stroman, who is generally regarded as one of the better arms still on the board. Meanwhile, White Sox right-hander Dylan Cease remains the focus of the rumor mill in terms of trade candidates as all indications point toward a deal coming together in the coming weeks even as the club’s reported asking price for their top starter remains quite hefty.
3. Kuhnel exiting DFA limbo:
Astros right-hander Joel Kuhnel was designated for assignment last week after the club claimed fellow righty Declan Cronin off waivers from the White Sox. Today marks one week since Kuhnel’s DFA, meaning a resolution is expected sometime today. Kuhnel, 29 next month, spent his entire career in Cincinnati prior to a cash deal shipping him to Houston back in June. The righty sports a lackluster 6.02 ERA in 76 career appearances at the big league level, though his 4.55 career FIP improves his overall resume somewhat. While Kuhnel’s 19.3% strikeout rate is nothing to write home about, he does sport an impressive 52.5% groundball rate for his career. That could spur an interested club to take a chance on Kuhnel, claiming him off waivers and adding him to their own 40-man roster. If no team opts to do so, the Astros can attempt to outright the right-hander to Triple-A as non-roster depth, though Kuhnel would have the ability to reject such an assignment after previously being outrighted by the Reds back in 2020.
I think business will be picking up big time after arbitrations are all square. This hot stove had legit big deals, a few with posting deadlines, to move past first, and now this, which teams really focus on intensely.
I can see the relief market in particular really start moving because there are A LOT of clubs in need there. Entertain us, MLB!
We heard the same thing about when Ohtani was signed, that trades and FA signings would heat up and instead it’s been a rather boring offseason
Half of the top 40 free agents are still available, with camps opening next month. Part of the issue is Boras controls multiple players and he loves to slow walk signings.
Well hockey has it right with a deadline of free agency. Set a deadline at end of January then if players aren’t signed then they can’t get more then a 20% raise from the previous year and teams that sign someone after that date got give up a top 30 prospect to the team that you signed the player away from. Or you pay a 50% tax on the contract. That would get things moving.
Soccer has these windows as well. I like this. Forces GM’s to make their roster building moves quickly and swiftly, and forces both sides to come midgrounds sooner than later.
Arb is a somewhat of a fixed cost since teams generally know their outlay for these players. I expect GMs to continue stalling free agents until the end of January.
@Salzilla
I think most of the signings are done. Garbage time players like Chapman & Bellinger might miss out on the start of the season because they want too many years and are a liability for any team. Add in the fact that many teams don’t have guaranteed revenue due to the TV issues right now so there is no apatite to sign mega contracts.
Garbage time players? There are legit free agents out there to be had, including the two you mentioned. Snell? Monty? Hader? The other Chapman?
No way are “most signings done”. And you underestimate Boras.
@Salzilla
I’ve posted data as to why Snell and Monty are bad signings due to their metrics and projections. Hader wants too much money for a closer role. Chapman can’t hit anymore and his defense is no longer what it was. I wouldn’t want any of them on my team.
Sweet. Stick by your guns and don’t offer any of them any contracts. Stay strong! You got this!
@Salzilla
Which guy do you want on the Yankees?
I’d take Hader in a heartbeat. And because of lack of better options I’d have no problem with Snell. Doing nothing when there are guys on the board is absolutely worse than doing something. Heck even as adamant as I was yesterday against Stroman, I’d even do him vs. nothing. Any contract comes with risk, but these are the gambles teams take. I’m all in favor of making the necessary deals to plug holes of need. SP and RP are definite needs and then I’d get a bat, though the immediate need is murky.
The Red Sox should go get Cease. If you have to pretend to care about prospects that haven’t done anything at the MLB level, I guess Teel and Rafaela are off limits. He’s struck out 700 batters over the last 3 years and would be the hardest throwing guy on the team. Get it done.
For what Chicago’s going to ask, I’d honestly rather the Red Sox stay away from Cease.
Yorke, Mayer, and Duran wouldn’t be missed. If they ask for more, sure, but those 3 should reasonably get it done
They asked the Reds for Lowder, Phillips, and Arroyo. Yorke, Mayer, and Duran don’t come close to that.
Lowder has yet to throw a pitch professionally, Arroyo is the same thing but switch hits, and Phillips had a bad 5 starts in his MLB Debut.
It’s apples to oranges imo and about the same offer. But if the White Sox want more, the Red Sox don’t have anything else unless they offer Casas (which would be a great idea but they won’t do it). I wish they would. The asking price will come down if the White Sox want to move him
Doesn’t Houck thrower as hard or harder than Cease? Not that it matters because I think Houck belongs in the 8th or 9th inning. As for a package, no one is meeting the asking price given his ERA last year. Personally, I believe the White Sox should take the best offer the day before spring training starts as what happens if he gets hurt?
Cease throws harder whether or not Houck is in the Bullpen. 95 (Houck) isn’t anything special anymore, and it’s frustrating seeing the Red Sox bullpen stuck in 2005
Houck had back surgery and threw 98 coming out of the pen. He needed more time to recover and strengthen his body. He has the potential in my view to close and that’s what the team should groom him for
The problem is that White Sox always try to rebuild off of one trade practically because they always ask for too much. Sometimes they do get a lot too, but they’re asking for the world for a guy that other than strikeouts, wasn’t that impressive last season. They’re trying to see who’s desperate enough to bite, but as a Tigers fan, I hope teams don’t bite and he walks for nothing. Or they wait too long and don’t get nearly as much as they hoped for because he won’t have multiple years of control by then.
I don’t like the fit of Cease and the Red Sox if only because the Red Sox are not close enough to competing in the AL East. Trading for Cease wouldn’t get the ball rolling as much as it would cause a set back.
The Red Sox were a last place team last year and if you are going to make a prediction for this season, you’d put them last again. They have some good young talent but they should be looking at making solid free agent signings and small trades vs a huge splash unless of course it’s a guy with several (4+) years of control.
White Sox are delusional for pitcher. We’re not even sure it’s going to bounce back.
Says the fan of a team who paid 44 million to Giolito who’s coming off two poor seasons vs 1 season of 3 quality
Drasco, what does one have to do with the other? The Red Sox have plenty of money should they wish to spend. The White Sox demand seems insane given 23 and one less year of control. Was more reasonable to consider after 22 given that year and his then 3 years (like the Sales deal) of control.
Teams need to get serious and go after Burnes instead.