There’s no question about the top four in the Braves rotation. Atlanta acquired Chris Sale over the weekend to join Spencer Strider, Max Fried and Charlie Morton in a high-upside staff, then promptly extended Sale. The Braves don’t have a set choice for the #5 spot to open the year. It seems that’ll be up for grabs in camp.
On an appearance on The Bill Shanks Show on Tuesday, Atlanta president of baseball operations Alex Anthopoulos suggested the front office was willing to consider a number of options for the last rotation job. “It’ll be open competition for the fifth spot,” he told Shanks. The front office leader name-checked five candidates for the position (albeit without saying it was an exhaustive list): Bryce Elder, Reynaldo López, AJ Smith-Shawver, Huascar Ynoa and Hurston Waldrep.
Atlanta had a camp battle for the final two spots last spring. They surprisingly tabbed Jared Shuster and Dylan Dodd, neither of whom had made their MLB debuts, for season-opening roles after impressive Spring Training performances. While neither rookie fared all that well, the Braves are open to again turning to a young arm if they outperform others in the spring.
“We’re going to take the best players,” Anthopoulos said. “We never assume the division. You can lose it or win it by a game, as we saw in 2022 (when) it came down the wire. … We’re going to break with the best team. Like anything, we’ll try to maintain our depth. If there’s a lot of ties or it’s close, we’ll keep our depth. But we’re hopeful these guys are all good in Spring Training and make it hard on us.”
Perhaps an opportunity will arise for the Braves to add a surefire #5 starter within the next couple months. That doesn’t appear to be an organizational priority, however. There seems a good chance Atlanta is content with a camp battle between the group that Anthopoulos referenced. They’ll likely all play roles at some point as injuries necessitate, but we’ll run through the top candidates for the Opening Day job as things currently stand.
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Elder surprisingly emerged as a rotation mainstay for Atlanta a year ago. Despite briefly starting the season with Triple-A Gwinnett, he wound up taking the ball 31 times and tossing 174 2/3 innings — second on the team behind Strider. Elder had a great first half, pitching to a 2.97 ERA en route to an All-Star selection. He didn’t find that same level of success down the stretch, as he surrendered a 5.11 mark in the second half. The Phillies tagged him for six runs in 2 2/3 frames during his only postseason start.
At year’s end, Elder still carried a solid 3.81 ERA. Despite the rough finish, he was a valuable part of Brian Snitker’s pitching staff. It’s nevertheless questionable whether he can replicate a sub-4.00 ERA without missing many bats. Elder had a below-average 17.5% strikeout rate and 9.9% swinging strike percentage a season ago. He’s a ground-ball specialist whose sinker was below the 90 MPH mark on average. It’s a very different profile from the high-octane strikeout stuff of the top four in the rotation (and that of some of his competitors for the #5 job). Anthopoulos pointed out that Elder still has a full slate of minor league options and could start the year in Gwinnett if he doesn’t break camp with the MLB team, as Ian Anderson did in 2023.
López, on the other hand, is certainly going to be on the major league roster. The question is whether that’s in the rotation or the bullpen. Atlanta signed the 30-year-old righty to a three-year, $30MM free agent deal at the start of the offseason. While the price tag wasn’t a surprise, the Braves’ subsequent announcement they might stretch López out as a starter was unexpected.
Teams have used López almost exclusively in relief for the past two and a half seasons. He hasn’t had a full year as a starter since 2019, when he was tagged for a 5.38 ERA in 184 innings for the White Sox. López has shown the durability to hold up from the rotation, topping 180 frames in consecutive seasons for Chicago in 2018-19. The former top prospect has been much more effective when working in shorter stints, though. He owns a 3.02 ERA with a 27.4% strikeout percentage in 131 1/3 innings between a trio of clubs since the start of 2022.
Smith-Shawver, who turned 21 in November, was among the youngest players to reach the majors last season. He got to the big leagues within two years of being drafted out of high school. Smith-Shawver didn’t hold a long-term rotation role, appearing in six games (five starts). He posted a 4.26 ERA through 25 1/3 innings despite middling strikeout and walk rates and seven home runs.
The 6’3″ hurler had a more impressive statistical track record in the minors. He combined for 62 frames between the top three minor league levels, allowing a 2.76 ERA while striking out 31.3% of opponents. Smith-Shawver walked over 13% of batters faced in the minors, so he’s clearly not a finished product. That’s to be expected given his youth. The Braves were impressed enough with the huge swing-and-miss potential he’d shown to carry him in relief on their playoff roster last October. He has two options remaining.
Ynoa, still just 25, pitched at the MLB level from 2019-22. He turned in mid-rotation results (4.05 ERA, 26.9% strikeout rate and 6.7% walk percentage) in 2021, although he was limited to 91 innings thanks to a self-inflicted hand fracture when he punched a dugout wall. He dropped into a depth role by the ’22 season, allowing a 5.68 ERA over 18 Triple-A appearances. He underwent Tommy John surgery that September and missed all of last year. He is expected to be a full participant in Spring Training. The Braves tendered him an arbitration contract but could send him to the minors for another season, as he has one option remaining.
The only player in this quintet who has yet to reach the majors, Waldrep is on a fast track to MLB. Atlanta’s first-round pick a year ago, the hard-throwing righty went from the College World Series in June to Triple-A by September. The Florida product had a brilliant 1.53 ERA while fanning a third of batters faced in his first eight professional starts at four levels (including one appearance in Gwinnett).
Atlanta is among the most aggressive teams in promoting its top prospects. As a college draftee, Waldrep is around nine months older than Smith-Shawver is. He has far less professional experience and isn’t on the 40-man roster, but he was drafted out of a strong program in college baseball’s top conference. Anthopoulos conceded it’d be ideal for both Waldrep and Smith-Shawver to have more developmental time but rhetorically asked, “if they come in and they are so much better than anybody else, how we do deny them?“
Most underrated organization in all of sports.
Idk about underrated, but they are definitely a gold standard organization. And I hate them.
AA is the most underrated GM, Atkins he most overrated!…actually Atkins is rated poorly by everyone which is accurate.
Underrated by whom? Most experts have them as the best team in the league. Deservedly so.
Olney, Gammons, Rosenthal, Verducci, etc.
We don’t really put too much stock into their ratings.
As a braves fan, no, not underrated at all. Most people see them as a good organization.
Law, Stark, Axisa, Plaschke.
If anything it’s the most overrated organization in all of sports. No one is afraid of playing this organization in the playoffs. In fact, most are celebratory when they draw the Braves in the NLDS. It’s been nothing but a doormat for the vast majority of the last 20 years.
The worst part about all of their exits isn’t even so much the losses themselves, it’s how they play during those games. This is a team that can’t even make the games competitive. If they face an elimination game, it’s an automatic exit as well. There’s simply no fight in this team come October, minus the one anomaly of a year whee a bunch of guys who had no business putting the team on their back decided to do so. And you’re not going to consistently get guys like Rosario, Soler, and Pederson carrying you…. which means it will be another 30 years before this team wins another WS if they continue playing like they do every October.
That’s a real comment for you that most Braves fans will brush aside with the excuse that the playoffs a crapshoot. It’s funny… it’s a crapshoot that consistently ends poorly for you? That’s not actually a crapshoot then.
@SE_Beast
Lol you say the playoffs aren’t a crapshoot and then you go and say
“You’re not going to consistently get guys like Rosario, Soler and Pederson carrying you.”
Citing that these guys shouldn’t have business putting there team on their back. That’s the reason it’s a crapshoot, you never know who’s going to get hot and carry you or when a great player is going to suck.
Sure, you can definitely get players that increase your odds of winning, but nothing is ever certain. Sorry to bust your bubble and your “real comment” :'(.
I’ll still take the world series they shouldn’t have ever won XD
Ok well let me spell this out to you as plainly as possible so you can understand how I can cite those guys carrying the Braves while also saying the playoffs aren’t a crapshoot.
The odds of those players stepping up to carry a team is very small. It’s lower than a 1% chance but for simplicity sake let’s just say it’s 1% (because I don’t want to make this too complicated for you or I know you won’t follow).
You still with me? So you have a 1% chance that those guys will carry you. That doesn’t mean it will never happen. That’s not what 1% chance means. It means 1 out of 100 times you will have it happen.
This is why the playoffs are not a crapshoot. The Braves need the 1 in 100 chance to occur for them to win the playoffs. The other 99 times they fail miserably. And what do we see from the Braves the vast majority of the playoffs? Epic failures over and over and over to the tune of having one of the worst playoff records from all teams.
If the playoffs were a crapshoot the Braves would be winning as often as anyone else. If it were a crapshoot you would see all teams with roughly the same winning percentage in the playoffs. Sure there will be some minor deviations, they won’t all be exactly even. But if it’s a crapshoot there would be no major deviations with one team losing a significant amount of the time.
The Braves are 6-14 in playoff series since 2000. That’s not a crapshoot. A crapshoot would look like maybe 9-11, at worst 8-12 but you’re starting to push it. At 6-14 you’re past the point of this being a crapshoot. You have sustained losing at this level. A crapshoot means you win some and you lose some relatively closely the same amount.
A crapshoot evens out over time. At some point its not a crapshoot. You just suck as an organization.
So like I said, because it’s not a crapshoot and the Braves rely on these 1 in 100 phenomena of guys like Soler, Rosario, and Pederson carrying them in order to win, we should see another WS title in about 50 years.
What is plain about 8 paragraphs. JFC no one wants to read your rambling lol
lol. The Braves lost in the playoffs. He didn’t get what he wants and is now throwing a tantrum.
Yeah everybody except the Brewers, Dodgers, Astros, Reds, and Marlins.
Only a LOLMets fan thinks the playoffs aren’t a crapshoot, and that’s a cope for only ever making them like 11 times in their history.
Another apologist for the Braves playoff failures.
If it’s such a crapshoot why do we see teams like the Astros consistently win (18-12 in the playoffs) and the Braves consistently lose (6-14 in the playoffs) since 2000.
If it’s a crapshoot it makes no difference how good they are, so probability should be equal for them. But if we were to test this you’d find these differences to be statistically significant…. because it’s not a crapshoot. There’s significant differences at play and has nothing to do with random chance, which is a crapshoot.
Run the numbers if you want. It’s basic statistics (which baseball fans tend to be obsessed with so surely this is right up your alley). We can actually define if something is random chance or not. And this is not. Do the math and stop calling it a crapshoot. You’re coping end of story.
I don’t think you can do the math so I will do it for you. Use a an Excel or Google sheets =TTEST function. Create two columns, one for the Braves wins and losses (win = 1, loss = 0) and the same for the Astros. Plug it in to your T-test function. Your p-value comes to .038 which is less than .05 so we can say with 95% confidence the winning and losing between the Braves and Astros is significantly different.
Sorry but math always wins. The verdict on it being a crapshoot is debunked. You’re all welcome someone much smarter than you is here to come such a discussion with hard facts to resolve these weak opinions.
Carry on with your coping though
First of All we won more games than that during the 2021 run to the World Series run.Two it’s shows how much you dislike the Braves, so if you want to be sarcastic go to your teams home page either the Mets or Phillies we don’t need any of your bad Karma.
I’m a Braves fan and these days the Braves are consistently mentioned right up there with the Dodgers and Yankees as most likely playoff contenders. I’m even pretty sure analysts picked the Braves to win the world series last season by t majority. Starting to think that sort of thing is the kiss of death.
@salarycapmyth
I think so too, I always feel better when they are underdogs.
@SE
I don’t know why you are so angry and what you have against the braves but oh well. Sure you can do all there is to give you a better chance of winning, but at the end of the day you are still going to be playing a game of chance, anyone can beat anyone in any given day in baseball. Do you think the Dodgers and Yankees are bad organizations? They seem to have the same problems. I’m glad you can put numbers in an excell sheet, congratulations. I have to say It’s an absolute honor to talk to the smartest person on the whole entire blog page! You should really give yourself a trophy for your self prescribed title. By the way, I think it’s super hot when you get angry and flustered like this 😉
Reynaldo Lopez is going to surprise a lot of Braves fans. While he was with the Sox the past 2-3 years, he never really had a clear picture on what he would be doing. The managers (Renteria/LaRussa/Grifol) tried him at every role they could find and never gave him an opportunity to shine in any given role. He has a good fastball and can make hitters miss when he’s on. The problem I saw with him, was the team around him. I am a firm believer that a player will shine when they are on a winning team, and with a team that has winning on their minds everyday. Mark my words, he will win 14-16 games if used as a starter for the Braves, and come in with an era under 3.50
I understand the interest and value of trying him as a starter but there’s something about seeing 100 mph out of the bullpen that we all want to see in Atlanta lol
Elder sucks. AJSS and Waldrep need to spend most if not all of the season in AAA and Lopez is a better RP. Sign Stroman and call it am offseason.
I’m sorry, but he doesn’t suck. He had a sucky second half, but if he broke camp as the braves 5th starter, that just shows how good of a team we have. Bryce elder would be a lot of teams 3rd starter. He pitched a career high in innings and weathered down over the course of the season, but as a 5th starter you couldn’t really ask for much more from him. Especially if he can keep the ball on the ground like he can do so well and can somewhat replicate his stuff from the first half. That’s a hell of a number 5 in most rotations. Plus he has options and can start in the minors to keep him fresh for whenever an injury or underperformance happens to another pitcher. That’s great to me and far from sucky.
Elder really lost his control going to a career-high in IP as a 24 y/o rookie in ’23 for a team that had 16 different guys start, but how many teams have a 24 y/o start 31 games/season, let alone a reigning All-Star in a SP5 rotational position?
For my money, Ynoa is the wild card. He had really impressive stuff that was derailed when kicking a cooler — err — punching a bench. Coming back from TJ, I’d love to see that killer slider and eventually that pre-TJ 96mph FB.
I agree with most when I think ynoa would be a killer bullpen arm, while also being able to start some games here or there. He has the stuff to be a good late innings reliever or a good swing man. I personally wouldn’t throw him directly into the rotation after all the time he’s missed until he shows he’s absolutely ready for that challenge again.
Absolutely agreed! I’d love to see him back-to-back with Reynaldo Lopez seeing a lineup twice each to get through 6 IP.
And part time DH for Ynoa lol. I remember that dude could rake for a pitcher.
No thanks Nick. We don’t need or want the egomaniac Stro on the Braves. Not ever.
Stroman belongs on some New York team. Braves don’t need that ego
It is clearly Elder’s spot to lose and I don’t think he will.
Lopez will be a multiple inning reliever
Ynoa if he has an option left I am not sure if he does will either be minor league depth or trade candidate.
AS-S & Waldrep have no shot they won’t even be 1-3 called up. Dodd, Winans & Vines will have those spots.
I am interested in seeing the Braves plan with Ian Anderson moving forward. I feel he is a dark horse for 25 when Fried & Morton leave. I want to see him come back at the end of 24 and get some work in the minors and hopefully get a start in September.
Ynoa has one option left. Might as well write Dodd off. He’s mil fodder or a throw in trade piece. Doubt he ever throws another ML inning for the Braves.
As long as it is not Elder.
I AGREE! ELDER SHOULD BE TRADE BAIT!
IF I WERE AA, I WOULD KEEP DYLAN CEASE ON MY RADAR AND WAIT UNTIL GETZ GETS THE ASKING PRICE DOWN TO A REASONABLE DEAL FOR BOTH TEAMS!
MAYBE ELDER, YNOA, AND ANOTHER MINOR LEAGUE PITCHER (OTHER THAN AJ-SS OR WALDREP), OR A MINOR LEAGUE POSITION PLAYER!
So you agree that Elder isn’t a viable #5 starter, but he should headline a deal that also includes a guy coming off TJ as well as some random pitching prospect.
@a better way
Why are you yelling?
He’s not yelling. He has a vision problem. He’s explained this a few dozen times on here.
@ABWTT That won’t get you Cease. The price was Grissom plus AJ or Waldrep and others and it won’t come down.
With Sale and Morton in the rotation, the Braves probably need to keep every last bit of depth they have in terms of starting pitching (take it from a guy whose team is woefully thin on such depth).
The Braves don’t have a lot of holes at the moment and would be best served hanging onto any kind of trade chips until they’re into the season in case they have to replace some major production due to injury (Riley, Acuna, etc.) Cease is remarkably overpriced at the moment – so much so that he probably ends up pitching for the White Sox and becomes a deadline target.
The braves starting elder in the 5th spot won’t be so bad. He can show flashes of being a damn good pitcher if he can keep he ball in the ground. Elder would be a 3 starter in a bunch of the lower tier teams if not higher in their rotation. If he’s penciled in as a 5 starter for the braves, that shows how good the staff is and I think we can deal with him starting every 5th day, giving you innings, and hoping the offense takes over like they are so well known to do. If he can have a 4.50 era or below, that is very valuable from a 5th starter.and it helps keep the younger guys learning and fine tuning their games in the minors until they get called up.
There is too much risk in the Braves rotation right now to depend on Elder to pick up the slack if/when Fried and Sale get hurt. Morton will likely develop an ingrown toenail, which will keep him off the DS roster.
Shut up
Waldrep is the one guy here that I’m willing to put money on becoming a multiple all-star and cy young winner.
Problem is it won’t be in 2024 because he just doesn’t have the experience and seasoning. But his stuff my be as good as Striders. But IMO he’s gonna be the favorite to be 2025 NL ROY and from there the sky is the limit.
Now Ynoa I see as a dominant closer because he has the 2nd best pure stuff of the pitchers listed here but has questionable control and only really has 2 pitches.
AJSS is going to do well but he needs more seasoning as well and he has to attack the batters more in the majors.
And Elder when he was on and especially the 1st half of last year looked like Brandon Webb from 15 years ago but I don’t know if he just got tired or if everyone figured him out but if he can be Brandon Webb again and have that sub 3 era and going into the weekend before the All-star game he was the leader for the CY Young with the lowest era but he just got lit up in Tampa and wasn’t tye same since.
The favorite for ROY…. in 2025? Lmao.
How about Trevor Bauer on a pillow contract…
Make it a pillow biting contract and you may have a deal
Has Elder not been optioned twice? He was optioned at the start of 2023 after losing to Shuster, and was up and down a lot in 2022, especially at the end.
Was it because he was optioned during spring training or bc he was recalled before the minimum amount of time to use an option?
That’s fair and very possible, but definitely spent the majority of 2022 in the minors
Pretty sure his 2022 year used an option but last year didn’t
That’s one of the best rotations in the game. There’s some significant injury risk, but you can say that for most teams.
Any pitcher can have their arm or shoulder go out on them at any time just ask someone like Mark Prior.
Nah, maybe the 6th or 7th best (in my opinion) thank you though Von. your Phillies have the best rotation for sure and best is whenever it counts lately it seems.
I don’t agree but we are both entitled to our opinions
Phillies are certainly up there, particularly because I see Nola having a better year. But these Braves are tough.
Elder should have the edge entering spring but they should give it to the best spring performance…Waldrep should stay at AAA a few months to limit workload but he will be in the rotation by July dominating big league hitters. The Gwinnett rotation could be more talented than the Oakland MLB rotation
It’s going to elder or Lopez I’m sure. I think the organization has an eye on making sure Ajss and Waldrep are ready for 2025
The top 2 are excellent. The next 2 are question marks for me. I think it’s good to have competition and it will inspire hard work during off-season for those guys but can you just give Elder the dam job? I know there’s questions about him but this is two straight years where he was a key contributor (they tied in 2022 with Mets) and you still refuse to give him the job. Reward someone who helped you. They lost Max and Wright and he helped a ton. He deserves that to be rewarded. I also get he may not be the best candidate.
I don’t doubt the success MAY be unsustainable but he is still an MLB quality starter and his stuff, while not overpowering, is extremely nasty. It’s just that he can’t afford to make any mistakes with location. Strider makes mistakes every inning with location but he can get away with it. That’s the difference in these kind of starters. It’s not that Elders can’t succeed it’s just there’s little margin for error and not everyone is Maddux
@rishi
Bingo, you nailed it. The top 2 are fantastic, Morton should be fine, and we don’t know what we’ll get from Sale (worth the gamble though.)
I support your name very much.
Thank you buddy, it is something I feel very strongly about. More players deserve recognition for pitching some of the highest leverage innings. Good talking to you Rishi
I guess my main problem is if he put up those numbers with strikeouts he’d be a lock so the fact that you won’t give him a spot must indicate to him you believe he has inferior stuff. That’s not a good way to inspire trust. Bobby Cox would throw you out there every time you earn it regardless. But a front office runs the rotation.
I bet you Vines ends up being the guy, or ends up in the rotation at some point
They will probably all be in it at some point.
Bo Graves!!
It may be Elder or Lopez to start but my money is on Ian Anderson bouncing back by the all star break. I can’t help but wonder if he was pitching through something in 22. He was way too good in 20 and 21 to just lose it.
Surprised to see Ian Anderson left off this list. I still have high hopes he bounces back and returns to his 2021 form.
@holycowdude He isn’t going to even start a throwing problem until the Summer (late June). He then has to rebuild his arm, that takes a bit of time.
He won’t be doing anything at the major league level until September
I am thinking Anderson is the guy they hope replaces Morton in 25.
Evidently Dodd isn’t even a consideration? Hmmm
Everyone is sleeping in Ian Anderson was out all last year with tommy johnn. Atlanta won’t have won in 2021 without him and Atlanta thought enough of Anderson long term to keep
him on the minor league injured list and DFA players instead of bringing him up and in the 60 day injured list so they could have a extra year of service time on him.
Even as horrible as 2022 was for Anderson
he still win 10-06
That’s tough to read.
First, I’m a baseball fan and before retiring coached D2 baseball while being a professor in the math department for over 30 years. I don’t have a particular team, I follow players and enjoy those whom make a positive impact for their communities and in life in general. Sports is a great platform to be good and do good.
Without getting into all of the specifics or appearing like I’m calling anyone out because I’m not. I just wanted to simply point out because you’re so convicted in your message being correct that I would like to help point out a couple things for you to consider. If Math is your basis to being correct, you need to make sure your math is correct and it’s not. Math involves all variables within the scenarios you are trying to prove. Example, you’re counting a 1 game wild card playoff win/loss as the same as a best of 7 series. You aren’t including seeding, home field advantage, rest for starters, being able to have your Ace pitch the first and multiple games of a series, weather. These are all variables/calculations you have to account for with your “crapshoot”
You have to create the value of each individual game first by using all variables, then create the math that involves including multiple years of “playoff” baseball. Not playoff series, but playoff games. Again, way more detail than just this brief synopsis but thought it was important to help you be more accurate since again, you are that convicted of being correct. I applaud your commitment and conviction, but you might want to do the real math when quoting math as being the deciding factor. Cheers everyone!!