The payroll has become a topic of conversation for the Red Sox. Despite chairman Tom Werner’s “full throttle” comments earlier in the offseason, CEO Sam Kennedy recently admitted that this year’s payroll will probably be lower than last year’s. It was reported last month by Chris Cotillo of MassLive that the club could look to shed some more payroll in order to improve their ability to pursue their free agent targets.
Per Roster Resource, the club’s payroll currently sits at $178MM. It hasn’t been that low in a full season since 2014, per Cot’s Baseball Contracts, but it seems the pursestrings are getting tight nonetheless. The club has been connected to some big name free agents that are still available, such as Blake Snell and Jordan Montgomery, but perhaps they need to free up a bit of cash before they can earnestly pursue any of those. More affordable options would include Mike Clevinger, Michael Lorenzen, Hyun Jin Ryu and others.
Cotillo’s report identifies Kenley Jansen as a possible candidate for such a salary-clearing deal, which is a logical fit. He signed a two-year, $32MM deal with the Sox last offseason, with even salaries of $16MM in each campaign. His first season in Boston was solid, though not spectacular. He recorded 29 saves in 33 chances, posting an earned run average of 3.63 on the year. His 27.7% strikeout rate was above league average but the lowest single-season mark in his career. The club has reportedly received trade interest in him.
With the Chris Sale deal, the club flipped the soon-to-be-35-year-old for a younger second baseman in Vaughn Grissom while effectively replacing Sale by signing Lucas Giolito. Perhaps the club is thinking of a similar path with the bullpen, as they have been connected to relievers like Jordan Hicks and Robert Stephenson, though those two have now signed with other clubs. With Jansen now 36 years old, they could perhaps exchange him for whatever the market will bear, then pivot to a younger arm to bolster the relief corps.
They could also consider replacing him internally with someone like Chris Martin, though there would also be some logic to consider trading him as well. He was signed to a two-year, $17.5MM deal last offseason, with $9MM of that still to be paid out. Per the Associated Press, he’ll make a $7.5MM salary this year and a $1.5MM payment of his $4MM signing bonus is scheduled for June.
Martin, 38 in June, is coming off a dominant season in a setup role. He posted an ERA of 1.05 in 55 appearances, racking up 23 holds in the process. He struck out 23.1% of opponents, walked just 4% of them and got grounders at a 51% clip. Martin’s never really been a closer in the majors, with just 12 career saves, though he did have a 21-save season while pitching in Japan in 2016.
Similar to the logic with Sale and Jansen, perhaps the club would consider making Martin available on the trade market and then replacing him with a younger free agent. Or perhaps they would like to trade one, keep one in the closer’s role and use the saved money to further address their rotation.
The relief pitching market has recently started to move, with many dominoes falling of late. In addition to Hicks and Stephenson, Josh Hader, Aroldis Chapman and Matt Moore have come off the board in the past little bit. That leaves David Robertson, Ryan Brasier, Phil Maton, Héctor Neris, Adam Ottavino, Wandy Peralta and Brad Hand as some of the best bullpen options still available. With the market getting thinner, perhaps the Sox can flip Jansen and/or Martin, then use the money saved to address their rotation.
Chief baseball officer Craig Breslow recently identified the club’s rotation locks as Giolito, Brayan Bello, Kutter Crawford and Nick Pivetta, with Garrett Whitlock, Tanner Houck, Josh Winckowski, Cooper Criswell and Max Castillo among the options for the back end and depth jobs.
What do you think? Should the Sox subtract from the bullpen in order to upgrade the club in other ways? If so, who should they move? Have your say in the poll below!
Martin is way too cheap and elite to get a fair return back for. However, I would be estatic if Texas reacquired him. They gave him away for a top 100 prospect who turned out to be worse than nothing.
Would you pay a top 100 prospect to get him back, say, Leiter?
I’d rather package Leiter for a starter… say Cease.
We all would as a Texas GM, but his stock has fallen.
No. I would try for guys like Abi Ortiz and Dustin Harris (former top 100) and maybe throw in a former top 50 Cole Winn. Thry better eat most of that salary, though.
The problem with guys like ortiz and Harris is they would fall so far below players already in the Boston system that they don’t add value or help rebuild the team. And, the positions they would play are effectively blocked for another 6 to 10 years anyways. And given the challenges boston has developing or fixing pitching prospects, Winn was a already tough sell before you factor in is consecutively worse AAA showings and the fact he’s already 24. Boston intentionally left better pitchers unprotected for the rule 5 knowing full well they would go claimed.
It’s importantant for sox fans to remember were talking about a pair of mid 30-something year old reliever/closers with 1 year of control left. But, it’s important to also remember that Boston doesn’t NEED to move either, and, needs to get something of value to Boston coming back, not just the least desirable spare pieces blocked on the other team.
I’d like to see both Jansen and Martin traded, BUT, to wait until June/July to do it and let the contenders bid things up if a SP with actual promise isn’t part of the return before ST.
Good insight GASoxfan..no need to trade them unless they impact the system and right now the system is flush
Poolhall – the system is full, but not flush.
Pitching pipeline is in poor shape. VERY poor shape. Catching is poor outside of Teel, so, you could convince me to take a defensive oriented catcher with a ceiling of a solid platoon man to play second fiddle to Teel. I’d also listen on talented middle infield pieces as Mayer isn’t proven and has lagged what should be expected for his draft pedigree. Specifically 2B to back up the untested Grissom.
I also wouldnt mind a Brock holt-esque utility guy with the tools to play anywhere on a pre-arb deal.
Duran for Martin.
5 years of Duran favors Boston.
1 great year from Martin favors TX, and Duran will never start for them.
Duran is Roughned Odor 2.0. Texas fans are super obsessed with him, but the team should dump him while teams still want him.
GASox – Every time I see the term “play anywhere utility guy” I think of Franchy’s brutal misplay and injury on the very last play of his Red Sox career, and Arroyo’s glaring errors such as the dropped fly ball in RF against the Yankees and the error at shortstop against the Jays that caused them to lose 1-0.
Brock was an exception to the rule, just like Zobrist. Very few two-way players can play well at several positions. When the Sox are ready to compete again, I’d like to see them bring down the number of pitchers from 13 to 12 and ensure there’s at least one solid infield backup and also ensure there’s at least one solid outfield backup. The 13th pitcher tends to be useless crap that is there just so Cora can make more matchup changes, it’s a waste of a roster spot.
Leiter? Top 100? Have you seen how he’s pitched the past two years lol? He’s dropped to #13 in the Rangers system per Baseball America
The buzz is TEX may think Leiter is close to being back on track and they recently found something in him. It wouldn’t surprise me one bit to see him become a serviceable major leaguer, and, he isn’t the best SP in their system either making him more palatable.
The guy who came back for a handful of starts in late 2023 looked much different than before… walks, which were a problem, were cut way way way down. I’d absolutely take a flyer on him.
At the end of the day, we’re talking relievers nearing the end of their careers with 1 year of control remaining on boston’s end. Nobody should expect cream of the crop coming back. Either a complete lottery ticket from a-ball who is young, a player who appears fixable with good pedigree, or a depth level piece – someone who looks to be a platoon player, utility guy, etc.
You may increase the return by paying down the contract, but, only to a degree.
Jack Leiter had a 4.05 ERA if you take out his 2 consecutive starts in which he was bombed. He also came back well and changed his delivery for a better K/BB ratio. He also has similar stuff to when he was in college.
The buzz is TEX may think Leiter is close to being back on track and they recently found something in him.
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I would trade Martin for Leiter sight unseen. Leiter is probably too talented to wash out completely. I think the downside is a high-leverage RP, and the upside could be a good #2.
I seriously doubt TX is that desperate for a setup, even one as good as Martin. But maybe us this as a platform for something a little bigger?
How about both Jansen & Martin for Leiter and maybe $10M?
Make it 15 MM headed to Texas, and it’s a deal.
Leiter isn’t a top 100 prospect anymore.
Trade both, you clearly have no intent on contending so get something in return.
It’s pretty much this simple.
I think they are working to compete, but are not willing to pay the current prices for free agents. I think the plan is to develop pitchers more than sign free agent pitchers. They also may be avoiding expensive free agents until they have a young core in place. We will see if it is a good plan or not.
They don’t have any pitchers that are close to being developed. Hens why they should trade these two.
I think they should trade most everyone and tank or try to compete. With the whining, critcal fan base and media, it looks like they may try to give the illusion of competing while basically tanking. I prefer a full tank over a stealth tank. All the whining and criticism may come into play when they think about trading guys like Jansen and Martin.
All – I agree. Go for it because it’s still doable or announce to the fans you are rebuilding (tanking) so expectations are set and the team can prepare for a huge hit in attendance, merchandising, food sales, parking, NESN viewership and all the other revenue flows they have.
Teams like the Cubs and Red Sox have a mystique about their ball park so tourists will continue to come in droves but the diehard fans will struggle during the coming years.
The key to the future since Bloom eliminated all the all-stars except the bloated salaried Devers, DD’s young stars must start turning into all-stars quickly. If not, this team will be getting top 5 draft picks for a long time.
The starting pitching is inadequate but doesn’t have to be. That’s Breslow’s choice. His Giolito move was not too dissimilar to the Kluber move by Bloom. The infield is a disaster despite Grissom being added because you have the worst 3B in the history of the game, a SS that can’t hit, and a solid young right side of the infield. Is 2 out of 4 good enough to compete in the AL East? Nope. Then you have 3 great young outfielders but Breslow has chosen to add an incredibly inconsistent outfielder to displace one of the youngsters. Your best prospect is an outfielder also looking for playing time. Is the outfield stellar? No, it’s more like the outfield when JBJ, Mookie came up and then Benny was added right out of college. They got better and these guys can too if given a chance but Breslow chooses to sit these guys to grab once excellent outfielder who hasn’t been for years.
So with three young guns from DD as the bottom of the pitching staff it should have been EASY to get two SP1 type pitchers. Yes, it was going to be expensive but all-stars are expensive and we only have 1 so there should be money available. Unfortunately, Breslow wasted part of what is available on a non SP1 when we had plenty of comparable pitchers to Giolito – Bello, Houck, Crawford, Whitlock, Pivetta all can be effective in the SP3 to SP5 spots. SP1s were needed and Breslow DID NOT DELIVER.
To fix the infield Devers must be moved. Again, BRESLOW DID NOT DELIVER what we needed. To fix the bullpen we needed two late inning relievers and again BRESLOW DID NOT DELIVER.
It’s not money. It’s Breslow. He’s doing the exact same thing Bloom did, he’s building a roster the way HE WANTS IT not the WAY THE TEAM NEEDS IT TO WIN.
Problem identified in January 2024, just like the problem was identified in February 2020. Now the question is how much rope? 4 years pushing the recovery into the next decade? Or will the fans revolt SOONER since we’ve seen incompetence before? Lets hope Breslow’s stay is much shorter than Bloom’s. But what we really need is for Breslow to DO HIS JOB and get the two pitchers, 3B and two lefty relievers. He can fund the moves with money left and Yoshida being traded to reduce payroll.
TF – it’s too soon to throw in the towel on Breslow. There’s multiple ways to do things, and, you haven’t even given the guy a single season to see what his big picture is.
He’s not going to broadcast it to you and lose any leverage he has to other teams.
It also sounds like he’s got a LOT tighter purse strings drommabove holdong him back than bloom ever had.
So, riddle me this. Pretend Henry says, it’s TF-day, he can pick Breslow’s fate. And you can him after less than a few months on the job. After all the interview declines, who do you try to hire onto staff to be GM/PBO? A hotdog vendor? Cause it’ll be even more radioactive a position than ever before.
Problem identified needs to be Henry, Werner, and Kennedy. It’s clear breslow doesn’t have the funding even bloom had to try to make moves.
Kennedy has to go! Can’t fire owners, but you sure the hell can fire the CEO who has overseen three last place finishes in the last 4 years. In 2021, they won there last game against the National to sneak into the playoffs. Yes they got hot and made within 2 games of the WS. On occasion you get hot when you’re a so-so team.
GA – I know you immensely dislike the owners and they are to blame for everything BUT Bloom destroyed the team not the owners. They hired him to do a job and he failed miserably because he followed his own agenda.
Owners have now hired Breslow and he’s pursuing his own agenda as well. You don’t have to be a big baseball fan to see Cora should not be a manager and Devers should not be a 3B so obvious steps are not happening. So lets dig deeper. Is it obvious that we need a SP1 and SP2? I think it is and I’m guessing the majority of the baseball world could make that observation without having played or being part of a front office. Breslow has done both but hasn’t fix the problem that is completely identifiable by all baseball fans. He chose to do what he wanted to rather than what’s best for the team much like Bloom did four years ago.
The fact that people turned down interviewing is at the root of the problem in Boston. The Manager has back stabbed two GMs and is pulling out his knife to Breslow. He’s a convicted baseball felon and represents everything wrong with the game today – Cheating is allowed if you are connected and breaking the rules depends on who you are and not what you’ve done.
If the owners don’t want to win then Breslow won’t make a difference in one month or four years. We have been on hold since DD was fired. I’m tired of it and I want ownership to hire a man of action like DD not another Bloom who wants to do it his way over time. That’s BS.
Rome may not have been built in a day but Boston can be. There are specific things broken that can be fixed if the GM is bright enough to want to address the issues rather than painting a Mona Lisa of himself. One ego maniac was enough for me. Now we have another putz trying to do things his way rather than fixing the problems.
If you wanted to build a building that would compete with the buildings around it you wouldn’t hire a guy who thinks the process is very complicated and takes time. You’d hire a PM who was action oriented to get that building up and competing immediately.
If the first PM can’t see your vision, then fire him and find another. There are lots of qualified GMs in the world. Heck, go to Philly and offer DD double his current salary. Based on what the owners did to him he wouldn’t come but you get the idea. There are lots of qualified guys out there that could understand how to get a SP1, SP2, 3B and two lefty relievers. It’s just not that hard.
I heard four years of excuses related to Bloom and now I’m hearing the same BS about Breslow. If it’s the wrong guy go get the right guy. Make this personal. If you needed a doctor for a family member and it was obvious nearly immediately that the guy you hired wasn’t cutting it , how long would you wait to find another guy who cuts it?
I’m an old Red Sox fan. I don’t have the time to wait 86 years for the owners to get their act together. I expect a fix immediately. We are doing nothing but wasting time letting Breslow dabble like we let Bloom dabble.
We need progress or a new GM to make progress happen. And if finding a new GM is going to be hard, since when do we shy away from difficult things to do?
GASox – I’m pretty sure TF is not serious about firing Breslow, he’s just trying to lighten up the mood here with humor which I greatly appreciate. That’s why he’s one of my favorite posters.
And FTR he was very supportive and happy when Breslow was hired. He knows how intelligent Breslow is and how Breslow wants to move away from the over-reliance on analytics which is awesome.
And of course Breslow walked into a really crappy situation.
He inherited Cora.
He inherited Kennedy.
He inherited an ownership that doesn’t want to win.
He inherited a team with only one star, Devers.
He’s been given the smallest of budgets to work with.
He’s inherited a team that has finished last 2 years in a row.
And he’s inherited a fanbase that is livid about the past 5 years.
There’s no chance anyone would call for a firing after just 2 months on the job … not even King George would do that!
shortstop – Kennedy is an owner, but yes he can be fired.
TF – the problem is that based on top brass comments we can reasonably assume two of your priorities are off-limits, namely firing Cora, and, moving Devers. As for the issues with top flight DP, again, comments of the top brass – all signs point to breslow not having the authority to offer contacts rich enough to attract that elite starting pitching on the free agent market.
So, I dont think it’s as much breslow choosing to do it his way slowly, its more him trying to do what he can the only way he can with the authority he has.
I disagree that Devers is a ‘star’ – he doesn’t play like one these days, and, he can’t play the field better than a prep kid would fresh out of the draft… nah, the prep kid would likely do better.
Regardless, TF doubled down on not wanting breslow, probably after you wrote this lol.
I also appreciate 90% of his posts and am glad he’s on the board. And I find myself.agreeing with him much of the time, with the occasional disagreement – much like you and I have.
The one thing I’d wish I did see though was some outside the box thinking, rather than keeping on calling for what we know at this point isn’t an option based on ownership and top brass, to make guesses and suggestions on ways to start improving within the constraints we have.
TF is a very bright baseball mind. I’m sure he could create some great and creative content on how to improve the staff without just spending big when we know ownership doesn’t want to go there right now
thanks…….In March 2021, Kennedy became a partner in FSG, formally joining the ownership group alongside new investors RedBird Capital, LeBron James, and Maverick Carter.
Kennedy has an ownership stake. He;s not going anywhere as long as he shows up and take the heat that John Henry won’t.
GASox – Well said about TF, there’s a reason why I like 99% of his posts (I know I miss some).
But Devers not a star? Sorry I think you’re putting him into the “not appreciating while he’s with us” category, just like Xander etc.
He has gotten MVP votes every single season since 2019 (not counting Covid 2020) and also has a couple SS awards and All-Star appearances since then.
Guy has an .877 OPS since 2019, he’s one of the best hitters in the game and certainly among the most clutch. So many legendary homeruns including the one off Chapman and the one in Washington.
Nobody downplayed the greatness of Manny, Ortiz, Damon, JD etc just because they couldn’t field well.
The jersey I see most often when attending games is Devers, by far. He’s not perfect but denying his greatness as a hitter is kinda silly :O)
Fever – Devers is a very good hitter, but he isn’t playing like a star player these days.
You compare him to Manny…. Manny hit an extra 10-12 Homer’s many years, was a 1.0xx to 1.2xx OPS guy compared to Devers in the .8xx range. And while Manny was no star on defense, he rarely committed more than 6 to 8 errors per year while not living in the age scorers are instructed to score things hits that are clear errors like Devers benefits from. I’ll stand by the same on ortiz, albeit to a slightly lesser degree… MUCH better hitters than Devers.
You’re elevating Devers to stardom based on a mid .8xx ops above the average guys mid .7xx ops, but the likes of Manny and ortiz were 1.xx ops guys, a whole different tier.
Devers is nowhere near the hitter Manny was, go back and link at manny’s numbers, or ortiz… can he grow into a star? Maybe. And at 31m a year he better. But he’s not there right now.
Devers is a very good hitter, but he isn’t playing like a star should, and, thats why I won’t label him one no matter how badly ownership wants him to be. When he plays like a star I’ll call him one 😉
suit – I’m truly surprised to hear you say that you prefer they tank now.
So no consideration or empathy for those who have already invested in this year’s team? I don’t mean the advertisers, I couldn’t care less if Mass Mutual gets pissed off for spending so much on promotion with a team that virtually nobody would watch or follow.
But how about all the season ticketholders and single game ticketholders and ticket package holders who already paid a premium price for a premium product? You don’t think the Sox owe it to them to field a competitive team?
I won’t even get into you calling all of us real fans “whiners”. Even though I’ve always suspected you have some connection to the front office because you always defend them no matter what, I didn’t think you’d resort to attacking fans for being upset about ownership lying to us these past few months and years.
You know what stand-up men of integrity do when they screw up? They make the effort to make things right.
Red Sox ownership ripped away some of the greatest and most popular players in franchise history, under the guise of it “needing to be done to improve the team”.
It’s now four years later since Mookie was sent packing, and the team is not only NOT better now but it’s actually far, far worse. So worse that good players don’t want to play for them unless it’s a massive overpay. So worse that many POBO candidates had no interest in the job, not even internal candidates. So worse that this once-great franchise has become an absolute laughingstock and a symbol of what happens when corporate “suits” run a baseball team without any true desire to win.
TF is 100% right, the minute Dombrowski left it’s been downhill and the dangling carrots such as MAT and future pipeline don’t work anymore.
If you keep kicking the family dog then don’t complain because it’s “whining” about the pain.
Tf – bro do you have nothing else to do besides write essays on why you hate Breslow
Bobby – You’re 100% correct.
Apparently Henry thought Red Sox Nation would support Kennedy because he’s from Brookline …. wrong!! That makes him even more of a sellout, because he should know how passionate the Red Sox fanbase is.
This ownership group is doing the worst possible thing to Red Sox Nation, taking away their passion and interest in the team they love.
GASox – I respect your opinion, perhaps what you call a star is what I call a superstar ;O)
And to me, a star player who is having a bad season is still a star.
Was Boggs not a star in 1992?
Clemens in 1993?
Yaz in 1981?
Ortiz in 2009?
Pedro in 2006?
None of them played like a star those years.
Fever – Very possible, thats where a term of praise without defined criteria to specify when it is used/earned means different things to different people.
However, and I’ll say this generally, there is a difference between a down year, and, a pattern of years. So, to use two of your examples to illustrate:
Boggs in 1992? To me, that was the clear entry into his permanent decline. Sure, he rebounded for a last hurrah in 94, but, generally, he was past the period of stardom and was a former star now in the twilight of his career from 92-onwards.
Let’s use Ortiz next. 2009 was a down year for a number of reasons, BUT, it was different because he recovered and went back to producing his generally high-end results. He in contrast was still a star.
Circling back, briefly, to Raffy – he’s NEVER sustained those heights if high production on either side of the ball. His mid 800s ops is exactly where his career average and his pattern place him at. It’s not a down year, it’s what he is, with some slight wobbles above and below in a given season. That’s different than say Boggs who was in the final tailspin by ’92, and it’s different than ortiz who lapsed into a down year.
I don’t believe in the once a star, forever to be called a star status… kind of how you don’t continue to call a top prospect who fizzled a top prospect. Maybe you say former top prospect, like after 02 Boggs was a former star.
Fever: I think John Henry wants to be similar to the Rays with developing players more than signing them, but I think he wants to outspend the Rays and be much better than them. It may work. We will need to see. I don’t think this change in direction is something horrible like many do. I think it is probably better than piling up albatross contracts and needing to wait them out. I just don’t see all the horror going on that you see. Regarding tanking, my opinion is: 1) either tank or be competitive; 2) I prefer a full tank to a stealth tank; 3) with critical fans and media a stealth tank is more likely than a full tank. I wasn’t advocating for tanking now.
GASox – I guess the best way to explain my viewpoint, which of course is subjective, is that once you’re a star for multiple years then you’re always considered a star. Not just with sports, but movies as well. Guys like Schwarzenegger, Eastwood, Nicholson are pretty much done when it comes to acting and have been done for a while …. but they will always be regarded as stars.
I think the top prospect analogy is a bit different, because they absolutely cannot be called a top prospect forever. They either become a veteran MLB player, or they don’t ever stick in the big leagues. Nobody today would still refer to Mookie as a top prospect, even though he became an MLB superstar.
One thing we do agree on, ignoring Devers there are absolutely no star players on the Red Sox right now. There’s not one guy who is must-see TV like Mookie, Pedro, Manny, Ortiz, Damon, Xander, JD etc were.
In that respect, the Red Sox have done exactly what Henry wanted – to be just like the Rays.
suit – Okay if you’re proposing a tank in 2025, which would probably benefit MAT as well, and all the fans know it will happen, that’s more acceptable to me.
I’m guessing you read other Red Sox forums and know it’s certainly just not me that’s horrified by what’s transpired this offseason. A lot of people such as myself are much more invested emotionally and financially in the team, seems like you’re not which is fine.
All I’m saying is, when people have a legit reason to be unhappy about something …. don’t try to take away their right to express that unhappiness.
I mean I’m not a huge Patriots fan so I couldn’t care less about Bill getting canned, but I wouldn’t tell diehard Pats fans to stop their complaining about it. And I would never tell them they have no right to criticize Kraft because of all the past Superbowl championships.
Fever: I am not advocating for tanking. I am not sure what the best path forward is, but I am willing to give Breslow a chance to implement his path forward and see how it goes. I think John Henry wants to be more like the Rays, but outspend them and be better than them. The Rays won 99 games last year while spending $93M less on CBT player payroll than the Red Sox. I can’t take away anyone’s rights.
@allinthesuit When you stated the Red Sox are not willing to pay current market price for FA… do you think the reasoning is because prices are bloated, that it’s bad timing to spend at that level, or perhaps the Red Sox evaluation of the remaining free agents just ain’t that high? Me personally, I think the latter.
GoGreen: That’s a good question and you may be right. The prices for free agent pitchers are way up and they may think they will not be worth the money over the length of the contracts they want and will handcuff the team in the future. So, I think they may be avoiding bad deals. Or they may just be avoiding longer deals until a young core is in place. Breslow may also be running into a budget crunch. I’m thinking they will still sign another pitcher and a right handed bat which could add another $20M to the payroll. The asking prices for Snell and Montgomery are still so high no one has come close to signing them. I am actually a bit optimistic that the Red Sox will surprise and be competitive this year.
GoGreen – Caveat emptor is a great concept BUT since valuation is not a science it’s a GUESS maybe we should use some probabilities of the likelihood we’ll find a qualified player under this evaluation system. Could be the greatest in the world and not render ONE PLAYER worthy. Where does that leave us? I’ll tell you. Last place for a very long time.
BRESLOW NEEDS TO DO HIS JOB!!!
suit – Come on now, keep it real please. Ownership has enough mouthpieces! Haha!
When have prices for pitchers NOT gone up?
Look at the progression of record-setting pitcher salaries over the years …. when have they ever gone down or even stayed the same? NEVER!!!
Scherzer $210M/7
Kershaw $215M/7
Price $217M/7
Strasburg $245M/7
Cole $324M/9
That’s one reason why pitchers are getting longer contracts these days, because owners know the market will only continue to skyrocket higher as MLB revenue continues to skyrocket.
If ever there was a good offseason to snag a quality pitcher, THIS was the time to do it because of the record-setting number of quality free agent pitchers.
The Red Sox had many, many options but were supposedly outbid on every one.
If their plan is truly to stay away from all quality free agent pitchers, then we will have at least a 3-5 year wait for them to *hopefully* develop a pitching pipeline through drafts and trades.
Fever: My guess is that John Henry expects to be very competitive if he outspends the Rays which he is since the Rays are pretty competitive. I think that is why he is keeping the budget down and hired Bloom from the Rays. Bloom failed to be competitive and got fired. Breslow has apparently assured ownership he can field a competitive team (see Werner quote posted below). So, my guess is the budget will stay around $200M, maybe more, but John Henry expects it to be allocated better, leading to a competitive team. That’s my guess. I could be wrong. How many years will it take to reconfigure the budget? Not sure, but could be 3-5 as you mentioned.
suit – You do realize by keeping it around $200M for multiple years he is actually DECREASING the budget which is why in just 4 years the Red Sox have fallen from highest payroll to 13th.
There’s a reason why the base CBT threshold increases every year, because it’s a given that player salaries will increase every year.
So if Henry is still valuing players this year and next year based on 2021 or 2022 salaries then he will likely NEVER land players good enough to have multiple suitors … which is EXACTLY what’s happening again this offseason.
How cheap have the Sox become? This offseason 6 low payroll teams have signed more free agents from the MLBTR tracker than the Red Sox have:
Reds 4
Royals 4
Pirates 3
Tigers 2
Brewers 2
White Sox 2
How RIDICULOUS is it for the 3rd-highest revenue team in MLB, coming off consecutive last place finishes, has signed only ONE notable free agent while all the above teams have signed more.
Fever: It may look like I am defending John Henry, but I am trying to figure out his thinking. We know he pays attention to the Rays and he just saw the Rays win 99 games last year while spending $93M less than the Red Sox. The Rays spent $130M last year. John Henry is probably saying “Why the F should I spend more than $200M?!”
they got a long way to go in developing pitchers since they dont have a decent one in their system. not one
since they dont have a decent one in their system. not one
=========================
That exactly why we should sign some SPs. Developing pitchers sounds great in theory, but we could be years away from our next internal candidate.
Randy – Right. Bello sucks and Houck sucks and Crawford sucks and Whitlock sucks and Pivetta sucks.
Sorry but the data completely disagrees with you.
Joe – Best post you’ve had this year, thank you!!
TF – Do you know who helped Pivetta turn his season around last year?
Not Cora.
Not Bush.
It was Chris Martin !!!
TF – I think you misread Randy’s post. He said in their system, which means farm system.
None of the guys you mentioned are in their farm system, they have all been with the Red Sox for a while.
Yeah cos the Sox have had so much success developing pitching.
They are about as directionless and clueless as a homeless crackhead
Boxscore – I think you understated the problem!!
Well that’s a bad plan if we want to be competitive before 2030. There is nothing at all in our pitching pipeline at present that will be ready before the end of the decade, and no obvious major league trade assets who will fetch enough of a return to build anything resembling a “pipeline.” I fully agree with and understand the need to build up the organization’s pitching in terms of quality, depth, and development – but this isn’t some kind of turn key project with shovels already in the proverbial ground. They’re starting at square one which means it’s going to take multiple years of pitching-heavy draft classes, probably some trades that fetch a couple arms in return, and yes – multiple free agent signings – to turn this back into a competitive pitching staff.
As far as trading Jansen and Martin, it depends. If they can get us back some younger arms who would project to be key pieces of the next great Red Sox team, I’m fine with it. I prefer to try and compete over trying to tank, but the team as constructed is going nowhere so best case scenario is probably keep them until the deadline so they can get some time in mentoring younger pitchers and then send them to whoever is looking to go all in on reinforcing their bullpen this summer. If it’s purely for the sake of salary dumping, I am a hard no.
Dirty – The Corners should be done around 2033, at which time Henry will be in his mid-80’s. They will try to win then.
The competitive balance tax goes up every year. The contract sizes and years have gone up continuously. Is there really someone in Red Sox management that thinks that this trend is changing?
Without collusion, which is illegal, and the only time contracts slowed for any period, the Red Sox cannot hope to compete with this philosophy of ignoring top talent due to a self-imposed doctrine of attempting to low ball players both on the team and on other teams. As long as other teams are willing to spend for elite players and the Red Sox are unwilling to, players will simply choose the much better options. You can get deals on declining, or marginal players, but top talent requires chances that large lengthy contracts may not pan out or lose value as they age.
William: I agree. However, I think John Henry can’t get it out of his mind that the Rays make the playoffs often while spending much less than the Red Sox. He hired Bloom from the Rays. That didn’t work out, but I think Breslow is taking a similar approach. I think Breslow sold to ownership that he could build from within for long-term success (like Bloom was doing), but also be competitive at the same time. Not sure if it is good or bad, but we will find out.
William – COMMENT OF THE DAY!!!!
You hit in on the head. Nobody successfully competes without spending money for all-star quality talent. That’s why I have as many rings as Tampa Bay.
DD understands how to build a winner and it’s quite simple.
1 – You find SIX all-star quality players and pay them their fair market value to be the foundation of your championship team.
2 – You prune the over valued prospects in your farm system and cultivate the real upside potential prospects. We are in a time when we have the most high quality farm system guys graduating to the MLB. Casas, Grissom, Abreu, Anthony, Duran, Rafaela, Bello, Houck, Crawford and Whitlock are large volume of inexpensive young talent that is controllable for years.
3 – You find a quality manager, coaches, metrics group and minor league coaches to improve the developmental process and to provide valuable insights into pre-game information to be successful.
This can all be done under the CAP when the number of young players are as great as they are in Boston right now.
The money discussions are all noise. They don’t exist. The issue is talent at the GM position, the Manager position and the infrastructure of the farm system. All things can be fixed quickly by an owner willing to reverse the curse of Bloom.
William – Again, THANK YOU for pointing that out to suit.
If a team is not increasing their payroll nearly every year, then they are falling behind the competition when it comes to talented players.
The Red Sox, Yankees and Dodgers have all proven they can’t win with a low budget payroll like Tampa can. The Yankees and Dodgers are compensating by spending, but John Henry is too dumb or greedy to get that …. actually he’s probably both.
This is the only way firing bloom makes sense. They are forcing breslow into the same box as bloom, so they couldn’t have been too upset by the results. I think they were just upset that the pitching hadn’t taken any strides in the minors.
Tang it. – Were you ever able to figure out why firing DD made sense? 3 unprecedented Division titles and a ring.
Wrong results? Did he misunderstand their direction?
My guess is that they didn’t like the direction. Henry has never liked spending big on aging free agent pitchers and dombrowski had a difference of opinion. In principal I agree that signing free agent pitchers is usually a bad idea. But if you don’t, you need to be good at developing it. They have never been that. They fired dombrowski thinking that bloom could fix that with Tampa Roots. Unfortunately that was far from the correct move.
Tang – Breslow has it WORSE than Bloom, because his budget is a lot lower than Bloom’s was.
As of right now the Sox are projected to have their lowest payroll since 2014. Does ANY team in MLB have a payroll now that’s the lowest in a decade?
And yet the Red Sox are charging the highest ticket prices ever … it’s gross!
I’m sure the end goal is to save money, but they aren’t wrong if the desire is to develop pitchers. The problem is they haven’t even been locking up guys when they can, so I’ll believe it when I see it.
suit – You realize actions speak louder than words, right?
If they were truly working to compete, they’d have done what it takes to acquire at least a couple impact players. They’d have traded young talent, or signed impact players (the Gio signing is nothing more than a “hope for a rebound” thing).
Lets get real, you don’t prioritize profit over winning if you’re working to compete.
Fever: My guess is John Henry wants the budget reconfigured as mentioned above.
suit – You think we don’t notice how you’re using the term “reconfigured” instead of “reduced” ;O)
Fever: I say reconfigure because I don’t think payroll is being reduced by much if any. The season has not played out. It is too early to say payroll has been reduced. Payroll may be reduced a little, but as pointed out above, the Rays won 99 games last year while spending $93M less than the Red Sox. John Henry apparently pays attention to the Rays spending and results.
I said the other day I would stop posting until there was actual news but I can’t help myself. is anyone else sick of the team basically crying poverty?
Jansen hasn’t been able to contend since the Astros cheating broke him in 2017. So he is in the right place.
Uncommonsense – Nice name and it fits. Jansen is just fine. He outperformed expectations a year ago and probably will again in 2024 no matter where he ends up playing.
Not sure how many teams are interested in giving up prospects for a 16 million dollar reliever with a 3.63 ERA. The obvious answer seems to be wait until deadline and see how things are going.
case – There’s a good chance Jansen’s value will decline even more by the deadline.
Let’s look at the facts:
He’s 36 years old
He pitched just 44 innings last year, by far his fewest since his 2010 rookie season (not counting the Covid shortened season)
He had by far his highest WHIP of his career last year
He had the 2nd-lowest K/9 of his career last year
He had the 2nd-highest ERA of his career last year
We want him traded not just because of the salary, but because he will probably be of even less value than last year.
Keep Martin, trade Jansen now.
i mean it makes sense if you want to dump salary. Jensen made 16mil last season and didn’t preform that well. He’s in his last year and is also going to make another 16mil so id say trade him.
swag – Good points but Kenley got 29 saves for the pathetic Red Sox team we had last year. I’d say that’s quite good and he out performed expectations.
As of today, there is no need for an excellent closer since it won’t impact the number of wins significantly just like last year. The two contracts wasted $47MM over the two year and made no sense when Bloom did it. Still doesn’t.
The good news is both have value so maybe two prospects can come from the trading of the two.
TF – Bloom signed them because he was hammered for putting together such a horrendous bullpen the year before. It was a critical area of needed improvement, and he didn’t want to trade prospects so he overpaid for two free agents.
In hindsight the money on Martin was wasted because they were a last place team last year, but if they had competed he was worth every penny.
As for Kenley he had a horrific year by his standards and contract:
Let’s look at the facts:
He’s 36 years old
He pitched just 44 innings last year, by far his fewest since his 2010 rookie season (not counting the Covid shortened season)
He had by far his highest WHIP of his career last year
He had the 2nd-lowest K/9 of his career last year
He had the 2nd-highest ERA of his career last year
I wouldn’t say the money was wasted on Martin. If the red sox didn’t sign him, they wouldn’t have gotten his elite season. Because they signed him, they now have a good trade piece.
Fever – Sure seems like Bloom was forced to do a lot of bad moves. I guess tearing down the 2018 roster comes with negative feedback that leads to more bad choices. What a vicious cycle he created.
I can remember telling folks both Martin and Jansen while nice players were poor choices considering the number of wins that were in the future for the Bloom team. Unless Breslow starts following my How To Make Boston Great in 7 easy steps handbook, they aren’t needed in 2024 and should not be renewed in 2025.
I think Jansen will bounce back if he’s not with Cora and on a competitor. I’ll take him over Kimbrel any time. Martin is needed badly in Texas in my opinion.
swag – Good point! But they did end up wasting his elite season and corresponding salary last year on a non-contender. If they end up getting young talent in return, it would need to have greater value than the salary paid last year.
TF – You’ve often said if Cora didn’t mismanage the team into the ground in 2019, Henry probably would have kept Dombrowski and continued spending reasonably. You are 100% correct!!!
Financially it’s so important to get into the postseason. Remember it’s all profit for teams, because they get a nice chunk of postseason revenue without having to pay the players anything.
No sense rostering an expensive closer (or an expensive setup man) if your roster isn’t built in such a way that you’ll have many late-inning leads to protect. Investing in the bullpen but not in the rotation is like putting the cart before the horse.
“No sense rostering an expensive closer (or an expensive setup man) if your roster isn’t built in such a way that you’ll have many late-inning leads to protect.”
Aroldis Chapman asks that you not relay this to the Pirates before the ink is dried.
Chapman was much better than Jansen and costs 35% less.
Actually I think the Bucs will be competitive in that division this season.
Box – Agreed! The Bucs started the season 20-8 including a sweep of the Sox in Fenway, and they finished the season strong. The signs of improvement are there.
This made me laugh, but I do agree with some of the other commentators who have observed that the NL Central is enough of a crapshoot for a Pirates run to be believable. The same certainly cannot be said of the AL East and the Red Sox.
crocus – I was looking at Sportsbook odds yesterday … Red Sox are indeed dead last for division title, with the Rays 4th. That’s basically what I’ve been saying will happen if the Sox don’t make any quality acquisitions.
Fever— It’s a bleak state of affairs! I’m still holding out hope that the comments about paring back payroll don’t necessarily mean there won’t be some shuffling in the future (i.e. shedding Jansen + Martin to sign Montgomery, which is my pie-in-the-sky scenario), but each day of silence is a little more disheartening than the last.
Let us analyze that move a second and see if we can look at it from the perspective of competing in the near future (2 years+). Is Montgomery a number 1 or 2? He is certainly not a number 1 on a team that has a true number 1. Is he a number 2? Debatable, but I would give it the benefit of the doubt. Let’s say he is, although I would say he is a solid 3 realistically with possible upside.
The Red Sox will not be in the playoffs this year with him, but we would have to assume landing him would require a multi-year contract of up to 5 years. Assuming we overpay, which we would have to for him to consider us, it would leave us with Mongomery as our number 1, Gio as 2/3, Bello as 2/3, and who gives a crap about 4 and 5. Our 4 and 5 will be either be passable, or not. No one should expect too much from the pen guys being forced once again into starter roles.
That leaves a 5-year window to make use of the Montgomery signing on a large contract for a number 2/3 pitcher. I am fine with that if they are more than willing to land a number 1 next year. Losing Jansen and Martin or keeping them both doesn’t really matter this next season, because we aren’t going to the playoffs. It would make the pen brutal since we are already poaching 2 arms from the pen to fill out the rotation and replacing them with sub-par talent from a thin minor league system that has nothing of note in it. We would be a worse team this year with a mediocre rotation, and bad bullpen, very little power, and bad defense. Next season would be a wipe, but at least we would have solved one rotation spot. Gio doesn’t count for anything. If he is good, he is leaving, if he is bad, we locked him up for another year. The upside on the Gio contract is nearly non-existent towards this year or next. So much has to go wrong for the other teams for us to hop from last to possibly 3rd. The playoffs are a dream scenario where everything has to go right for us coupled with things going terribly wrong with other divisional teams.
The idea would have to be for a guarantee from management that they would pursue and sign, or trade for a number 1 and that we would somehow replace in the bullpen a closer and setup man. We have needed a quality lefty since 2013 without getting one so I do not have high hopes that all 3 needs would be filled. We do not have that lefty in the minors, we don’t seem to see the importance in getting one, and we are talking about getting all 3 to make the team competitive. That assumes a lot.
To answer your hypothetical. Yes, we go get him if we are told the other 3 are assured. If not, what is the point in a large contract for a number 2 when we are still bullpen poaching, have no real number 1, have subpar relievers filling roles and no closer or setup arms. Otherwise, we are just creating 3 problems to solve 1 and still aren’t making the playoffs.
Not trying to be doom and gloom, but the problems were clear going into the season and we have literally not solved a single one unless you see Grissom being a quality major league second baseman both hitting and fielding. We needed a 1 and 2, a quality lefty reliever, a starting second baseman and a power right-handed bat. That was the minimum. We traded our best starter if he is healthy (he may very well be at this point) for the possibility we now have an answer at second.
Take that information for what it is worth. We failed so far to land a 1, a 2, a quality lefty reliver and the power righty bat. Montgomery means nothing unless they are willing to make some moves that this management deems too painful to make in the past few years, now, and possibly going forward for blatant issues everyone can see plainly.
Amazingly little credit received for the 3 World Series Titles.
Beach – Five year rule.
If the Sox trade Jansen it should be at the deadline when they could actually get something for him. Right now there aren’t many Closer needy teams that will give up more than a pair of low level minor leaguers
Then why did Josh Hader just get the largest contract ever for a closer?
Teams trading for Jansen now can at least entertain giving him a QO and getting back draft compensation, although it’s pretty unlikely they do so.
They can’t offer a QO. He rejected one in 2017.
Houston has a Closer in Ryan Pressly, they chose to add Hader to shore up a backend that will likely lose Hector Neris to free agency and lost Kendall Graveman to injury. They weren’t a “Closer needy” team.
5 years of Hader for cash is different than trading prospects for 1 year of Jansen
Rsox – We needed Hader if we were going to actually compete going forward but clearly that’s not the direction so I’m glad the money wasn’t wasted. It’s much better off in being redistributed to other sports teams.
Winning teams do logical actions like picking up a great lefty closer because Pressly showed a bit of weakness last year. Having Jansen and Hader would have allowed Jansen to walk and for us to have Hader for 5 years. That way, if Breslow starts to fix the team the end of the game is covered with Hader and Jansen.
Sure wish Breslow would start doing some needed moves.
All true. However, the Astros are in a drastically better place than the Red Sox are right now and certainly offer a much clearer path to winning than the Sox.
I think it is a bit unfair to expect that Breslow was just going to come in and purge the roster of Bloom’s acquisitions and start completely from scratch. It took Dombrowski almost 2.5 years to build the ’18 championship team with his first big ticket signing being a horrible contract to David Price. While Price was outstanding for the Sox in the ’18 postseason the fit was never right and the numbers suffered because of it
Rsox – All true but DD did win divisions immediately. I’ll take a playoff spot at this point as step one but I don’t see that happening.
Who would want him though
Teams that need a closer or 8th inning arm?
What, like 3 years ago ?
Teams would be lining up for Martin, and plenty of them would be interested in Jansen too, especially if the Red Sox are willing to pay down some of his salary.
I meant lien at that price, if the red Sox are gonna pay down some salary that’s a different story
We should offer as much as possible to secure the best prospect possible.
Cubs will give the Red Sox a prospect and take both players along with $10M….he wasn’t that great last year to be honest
no…smart teams pay down salaries to improve the prospect return,
The Natural – The CUBS will beg us for one or both of them as you flounder in the standings due to a weak reliever group. You guys will pay their salary and give us two prospects to get them. Jansen had 29 with a bad Red Sox team in 2023 and 41 with a good LAD team in 2022. You won’t find better than that anywhere in baseball. Guys like Jansen are already locked up.
EZ there big fella.. the 29 saves dont tell the story at all. He had six losses along with 4 blown saves and high ratios for a closer. 3.63 era is way high for a closer. Hard pass as he turns 37 later this year.
And by the way, Jansen did not pitch an inning for LA in 2022.
HBarnes – MORONS pay down salaries to move a player.
Jansen is a highly respected closer costing $16MM which is not a high price for his skills. In July, the pro=rated portion will be $8MM or less. Any team in the hunt will drop that kind of money to hugely upgrade their relievers. We should get an excellent prospect because he’s so cheap.
Martin is far less expensive and also highly respected. It made no sense when Bloom got the two relievers for $47MM over two years when the team wasn’t going to win 81 games but he did get a good deal on something we didn’t need. Now, both are assets that can be moved at the deadline and two prospects of value if Breslow knows how to negotiate for them should be added from the deals.
Reds, Cubs. Nationals, Orioles, Marlins, Phillies, Braves, A’s, etc.
Rangers, Cubs, Cardinals, Giants.
BS are not legit contenders, particularly in that division… they should get what they can for Jansen.
This shouldn’t even be a question.
Garrett Whitlock should be the closer
sacrifice – Based on what?
His lack of experience as a closer?
His low velocity fastball?
His below average strikeout rate?
Not every good reliever has the makeup to be a good closer.
Isn’t Jansen’s contract underwater at this point? I don’t think Jansen is valued at $16MM plus a trade return.
They would eat some salary one way or another to create more value. But my answer is no, it’s not a bad contract. He was consistent last year w career numbers and has been borderline elite his while career
Well I beg to differ, he couldn’t handle back to back one inning nights, he is somewhat out of shape and he was really not reliable after June …. They need to move on!
Whiffa – You can’t possibly be talking about Jansen when you wrote “consistent last year with career numbers”.
Let’s look at the facts:
He’s 36 years old
He pitched just 44 innings last year, by far his fewest since his 2010 rookie season (not counting the Covid shortened season)
He had by far his highest WHIP of his career last year
He had the 2nd-lowest K/9 of his career last year
He had the 2nd-highest ERA of his career last year
He started well and then faded fast. Maybe it was injury related and he’ll rebound this season, but at his age the odds are against him.
Fever – WOW!! That was beautiful man!!
The CORA EFFECT described in detail!!!
I love it.
Put Kenley on just about any other team and he reverts to his old numbers when he was with a contender.
TF – You are probably right!
For instance some pitchers are better when they pitch more often, perhaps Cora wasn’t using Jansen enough.
We already know there was nobody on the team’s coaching staff to help pitchers when they were struggling.
TJ – Seriously? If any website suggests that I would lose the bookmark!!!
The Red Sox need to get a plan and stick with it.
Swapping out Verdugo for ONeill made a ton of sense. They improved the farm system and if ONeill can stay healthy he will bring back something good at the deadline.
Yes trade Jansen and Martin too.
Trading Sale for Grissom meh I don’t know about that one. But they did get 6 years of Grissom and cleared some salary.
But why sign Giolito? That contract is awful if he’s good he’s leaving after 2024 and if hes bad he stays. Why spend all that money and take on that risk for a team that isn’t going to contend?
Opt outs do not favor the team and as you said they only keep the player if he stinks or is below average. If I was a team, the only way I’d give an opt out, is if the team also gets an opt out, do over, if things do not go well.
I think it comes down to that they need someone to eat innings, who has moderate upside and could potentially be flipped for prospects at the deadline. But I agree that Giolito wasn’t the best choice at that price. They probably could have signed Kenta Maeda or Nick Martinez for $10-12 million less.
They list that opportunity in late November and early December.
HBan22 – Think about what you just wrote.
We need a SP1 and SP2 which would be innings eaters to go with Bello, Houck, Crawford, Whitlock and Pivetta. Those guys can all be innings eaters but they need to compete against comparable pitchers and if there is no SP1 or SP2 then everyone moves up the rotation to cover the vacancy and they face far better pitchers in EVERY match-up. That’s how a team loses over 81 games!!!
Giolito’s innings were NOT needed. A SP1 with those innings was needed along with a SP2 with those innings. That’s what Breslow SHOULD HAVE DONE. He screwed up and over paid for something we DID NOT need.
Every team in MLB wants SP1s and SP2s. Could they have used Yamamoto and Snell? Sure. The problem is that you have to pay HUGE money to sign them or trade HUGE prospect hauls to get them. Which do you recommend?
Trollfree – Completely agree with everything you said. That’s what they SHOULD have done. I was just stating what they actually did do. Giolito was their half-measured attempt to fill that vacancy you’re talking about.
Giolito had a good first half of the season last year and then went through a divorce and had a horrible second half. They are banking on getting the good Giolito. Switching him for Sale could be a big improvement as Sale can’t stay healthy while Giolito has stayed healthy.
All= Can you go back and rationalize the poor pitching performances prior to 2023? If it was a one year deal I think we all might be more supportive of the move like in the case of O’Neill who also has sucked for a couple of years or more.
We needed a SP1 and SP2 and we got Giolito. We didn’t need an OFer as much as the SP1 and SP2 but we got one before using the allocated money for a SP1 and SP2. That’s poor decision making. Priorities should be established with SP1 and SP2 at the top besides the obvious no cost moves of firing Cora and moving Devers.
Spending $17MM on a pre-arb1 2B before we secured our SP1 and SP2 is also financially irresponsible by Breslow. If we are going to spend under the CAP thanks to ownership restrictions the first and second money spent needs to be on SP1 and SP2 pitchers.
It’s that simple. Make the team as competitive as possible and if you run out of money for the 5th and 6th most important things it will hurt less than if you run out for the top 2 items.
Also, it’s just as easy to dismiss Sale’s various physical maladies as one-time flukes: fell off his bicycle; hit by a comebacker.
Sha – Actually one could argue Sale’s arm is in better shape for his age because he hasn’t really pitched the past few years.
If Sale stays healthy and dominates, the Red Sox will look like bigger fools than they looked last year when Wacha and The Great Nate won Pitcher of the Month.
This team is a joke. I get the whole “four titles this century” stuff, but does that mean we just mail it in and cross our fingers that a roster full of unprovens and lotto tickets are all gonna cash in at once? I’m excited to see the kids develop, but I’d also like to be competitive.
swan – I totally agree! Good teams blend kids with proven veterans, not just for winning games but also to have great players mentoring the kids.
But hey, people don’t go to Fenway for the Red Sox … they go for the “Fenway Experience”, right?
Fenway Experience kinda makes me gag a little
swan – Yeah the narrow wooden slat grandstand seats, the RF box seats that face the CF wall, the box seats that have a corner of the seat literally touching the wall down the 3B line, I can go on and on.
Not sure if it’s still the case, but for the longest time Fenway was the only park that refused to provide tops for the draft beer cups. Why? So you can spill half of it on your way back to your seat, which means going back for more beer faster.
Fenway is a great place to tour, but a lousy place to see a game unless you’re in premium seating.
Trade both. It’s clear that this isn’t a year they’re trying to be all that competitive. Get value while you still can. They might have good trade value at the deadline assuming they put up similar numbers.
Both are old and trade material. I know some teams that are super desperate for relief pitchers and they’re willing to give up top 10 prospects for these guys. Just ask the Red Sox themselves, they know what they did before.
Larry Andersen for Jeff Bagwell, look what had happened.
Clo – I preferred the Slocumb for Lowe Tek trade.
I picked trade Jansen, but I can see Boston trading both. Breslow is cutting payroll and they’re not contending this year, at least not with this team.
What will Chris Martin say to his new bullpen mates?
“I will try to fix you.”
I think he’ll bust out a piano and start putting on a show for the bullpen guys.
And sing “Every Teardrop Is A Waterfall” at game 162.
People who want the Red Sox to trade Jansen and Martin just want them on their own team. Please, keep your hands off our players. We Sox fans need whatever joy we can get watching our weird and undernourished team. And these guys actually provide some.
I’m for trading Kenley, but to do it now requires paying him down to around $10MM at most–the return almost won’t even matter as far as the pay-down. Trading him at the deadline might increase his value to a contending team (and already cuts his salary by more than half), so that might be a better route. It’s not going to happen that the Sox trade Kenley now and this will allow them to afford a starter. As for Martin, he should be extended another year at $8MM! Houck is the closer of the future–he’s got the bulldog mentality.
Horace – ONLY MORONS pay down contracts!!!
You have no idea what you are talking about. $16MM for a 40 save closer is a very low price. It’s ridiculous what you wrote.
Yeah, you wrote that above, too. If only morons did it, it wouldn’t happen as often as it does. In fact, it is a necessary part of moving certain players and their contracts. Trollery doesn’t change that. If you don’t like it, don’t do it, but the Sox might have to. And when they move Devers, as you keep crying out loud for, that paydown will be at least 80 MILLION DOLLARS. READ ‘EM AND WEEP.
As others have stated, paying down contracts is a way to increase the return you get in any trade. If your goal is to get the best young players possible in a return for a veteran like Jansen, then paying down some of his contract is in truth a very wise move. The Sox paid down a chunk of Sale’s salary next year, and got a very talented young player in return. So they have shown a willingness to do it, and should continue to if it means maximizing the potential return of young talent.
I’m hoping pedey can unlock a little something in grissom. Unfortunately, he has had defensive issues as a minor leaguer, and, I’m not sure the pressure of starting on a mlb club, nevermind one with a fanbase like Boston, is the place to work that out.
Perhaps he will surprise. Offensively he has more promise than with the glove. Story put up great defensive numbers at SS in a small sample last year, so, that may also help. Problem is, story can’t shade to help bail out Devers, AND, shade the other direction to help grissom, both at the same time. He can only help cover one weakness or the other.
So that’s a bit problematic.
Horace – Do you have ANY finance classes in your past? Seriously, a pay down is NOT a necessary path it’s a bad choice. We are paying $17MM for Sale to be successful in ATL. How much sense does that make? ATL is paying $8.6 and they actually get the benefit of his performances.
Trollery? What part of explaining the evils of buy downs is trollery? Make some sense next time.
We won’t be trading Devers with a pay down any time soon if he’s going to be the forced face of the franchise like he’s been since Mookie was shipped out. He will play to 32, then drop off dramatically and eventually they will cut him and eat the remaining $30MM a year or they will trade him and they could easily do a buy down because $100MM of bad decisions doesn’t seem to have made them any smarter.
I prefer to see a future DFA at 33 years old. It would be far more satisfying. FYI… a smart GM includes pretender prospects instead of cash.
GASox – You’ve touched on a point that many others have mentioned with regard to MAT. Kennedy and the rest of the front office is expecting them to make an immediate impact on the Red Sox when they are promoted this year or next, I think that’s just plain wrong to put that kind of pressure on young kids and it certainly could negatively impact their development and careers.
Hopefully Tek will still be around next year to help mentor Teel, and Story could help Mayer. Not sure who is gonna help Anthony.
Hard for story to help Mayer when he won’t even show up to the mini camps Story runs for the young guns.
Had DD been around I think Mayer would already be gone. Health issues + a high strike out problem his whole time in the minors that he isn’t fixing + slow ability to adjust to pitchers attacking his differently are moncada-like red flags
As others have stated, paying down contracts is a way to increase the return you get in any trade
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I think there is only one person in here that doesn’t understand that.
GA – I think DD would have taken that way too high ranking and turned it into something we desperately needed. No way to guess what that would be because if DD was still here we probably wouldn’t need much to win another ring.
JoeBrady – Take a finance class. You just don’t understand paying for a guy not playing for you. You strip money from your war chest on the hope that some pretender is going to do something that another player could do for the same price or less. Prospects aren’t guaranteed any production at the MLB level and each year that passes reduces the net present value of that players contribution.
Unless you are the NYY, LAD or now the NYM and don’t care about the CAP, buy downs are bad. They are less bad for them because they have unlimited resources so throwing away money is no big deal to them. That’s been true for the Yankees for 100 years or more. Boston believes in the CAP and plays with a limitation the Yankees don’t have so BUY DOWNS ARE BAD. They grossly limit resources available.
Why isn’t this obvious after DD inherited $41MM of buy downs and then Bloom got rid of Mookie to deal with the buy downs DD ignored? It’s not that complicated. DON’T DO BUY DOWNS EVER!!!!!
GASox – Wow I didn’t know that about Story, what’s the point of hosting a camp if you’re not gonna be there. Half of life is simply showing up.
I do give Casas a lot of credit for attending literally everything this offseason, even things that probably didn’t help him much. He’s a very unique dude, I hope he lives up to the hype.
Mayer had health issues prior to last year? I don’t follow the minors nearly as much as I should.
Joe – It’s good business for a team like the Dodgers or Yankees that has plenty of money to spend.
Not so much for a low budget team with cheapskate ownership.
Trade Jansen and Yoshida to Seattle or Miami for one of their young starting pitchers., Clears 34-35 mill. Move Devers to DH, sign Matt Chapman to a 1 year max dollar bridge contract (so he can be a free agent and test the market next offseason).
This fixes the defense, gets another right handed decent bat for the lineup, and Young Controllable starting pitcher. At that point you have a team that can compete…. sign Mongomery then you are in the mix for a WC..
Worst case scenario if they are not competing towards the All-Star break, you trade Chapman for some prospects and regroup some of the Salary invested.
Neither team can afford that, especially the Marlins. No way this trade is even possible
Depends on the Salary that comes back in the trade…. but I find a hard time believing that Seattle can’t afford it. Also the suggestion was to trade both Jansen and Yoshida, it doesn’t mean that is has to be to one team…. a third team can be part of the deal.
Seattle has been cutting salary. It was the only valid reason for trading Robbie Ray and not making too many free agent signings.
Seattle has been cutting salary. It was the only valid reason for trading Robbie Ray
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The reason for trading Ray is that they had no slot for him. They have 5 SPs that are better, plus Gonzalez, Flexen and Hancock as their #6, 7, and 8 SPs.
Better than Robbie Ray? You’re aware that he has probably the best k rate out of everyone when healthy? I find it hard to believe they would want to replace him. He has a lot of experience and if I recall, Seattle wasn’t good enough last year for the playoffs. Losing Ray hurts them more than it helps.
They don’t want these guys at full salary ignoring the fact that yoshida+Jansen is not even close to what itd cost to pry one of the young arms away from either.
I am not talking about Kirby or Gilbert…. Maybe Hancock, Woo. Jansen has 1 year…. the harder sell is Yoshida.
Cooper – Loved your suggestions.
I think both Miami and Seattle have made it pretty clear at this point that they’re not interested in moving their young starters and are even less interested in moving them for anything that Boston has to offer. But I agree that investing in a third baseman who isn’t Devers would be wise.
Crocus – I disagree. Boston has the pieces it’d take, but, they are the current class of untouchables.
If you offered Teel, Mayer, Rafaela and a pair of lottery tickets you could get a young arm back. But it’d be foolish.
What the teams with young mlb-ready caliber SP want back is incompatable with the sparse spare parts bloom left behind in boston.
So, your best bet is trade the rest of those away – they aren’t going to be around long enough anyways – to get some decent prospects that won’t be rule-5 eligible until at least 2026. Then, deal from the collection of what you amass, if you can, for something controllable and usable, and, if you can’t, develop them.
Not that you can trust a baseball executive, but this is what Dipoto said about it in December:
“However, Mariners president of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto suggested at last week’s Winter Meetings that a trade of one of their young big league starters doesn’t seem likely. Dipoto acknowledged “constant” inquiries regarding his young rotation before casting doubt on whether he’d actually make a move involving anyone from the bunch.” (mlbtraderumors.com/2023/12/red-sox-trade-rumors-ma…)
Of course, you’re likely right that none of the names you mentioned were ever put on the table by Breslow in the first place. Which is for the best.
There is absolutely no way the Mariners would trade any of their young starters for Jansen and Yoshida, even if the Red Sox paid down a decent amount of their contracts.
In no particular order:
Jansen is okay. He’s not cheap, but some teams will like the fact that he is only a one-year commitment.
I would keep Martin because there is still a chance we can compete, and Martin is more important than Jansen. But that said, he was insanely good last year, and I wouldn’t hang up on anyone,.
Part of trading Jansen and/or Martin means giving a look at Houck and/or Whitlock. There is a real good chance that those two will be the 8/9 in 2025, so starting the process in 2024 should be a positive.
And pay down as much as Manfred will allow. It will give the illusion of spending, without spending.
And finally, as others have mentioned, if this is where we are headed, then what was the point of Giolito? I’ve always maintained that one of the most important functions of a GM is knowing which direction you’re going.
Giolito eats innings. Whether he was frontnof rotation production, or back of rotation production, the one thing he did was eat a lot of innings, reliably.
When the rest of the SP lineup is young and coming into their own, thats important. It also takes weight off the bullpen, meaning, you can operate a shorter hook on developing guys without gassing your pen – especially as MLB is cracking down on injury/roster manipulation to shuttle arms around, as hinted to the entire league by their investigation.
If he’s good, you QO him and get a prospect back, assuming you don’t flip him at the deadline. If he’s not as good, you still get 2 years of dependable anchor eating innings, cheaper than you paid porcello to do the same thing years ago before pitching prices increased. And, part of the cost was the no-talent-team-stuck-not-competing premium players want to join a team that was destroyed at the mlb level by the prior gm.
Joe – Disagree with your comments.
Jansen is cheap for a guy who saves that many games and is a HOFer who hasn’t lost his stuff.
Trading Martin makes as much sense as Jansen since he’s on a one year deal and many teams need a guy like him including Texas.
Houck and Whitlock don’t fit the closer role. Houck is a SP and Whitlock doesn’t have the over powering stuff of a closer. He’s perfect at getting out of an inning and leaving the runners on base but he simply doesn’t have the stuff to be a closer like Houck does. I don’t like Houck as a closer because he could be 175 inning SP and eventually a SP2. A SP2 is harder to find than converting a SP to closer.
ONLY A MORON does a PAY DOWN. Go read some finance books!!! WOW maybe one of your worst comments in the last year.
You made the point of GMs knowing which direction they are going but you forgot to mention whether you believe Breslow understands it or not. His Giolito move was much like many of the Bloom moves. He’s getting guys he likes not what we need. It’s his club so he’s making it reflect his ideas of what is good and ignoring what we need just like Bloom.
It’s time to pull the plug because 2024 is salvageable and a quick turnaround can be started immediately but we need a GM with vision of how to build a winner quickly.
ONLY A MORON does a PAY DOWN. Go read some finance books!!!
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Silly opinion. If I can acquire a prospect worth $20M in future value, by paying $7.5M of Jansen’s contract, why wouldn’t I do that?
JoeBrady – When you make a statement like
A prospect worth $20MM you are suggesting a guy that has an OPS+ around 125. Where are you going to get a deal where you trade a player like Yoshida who costs $18MM and you do a $7.5MM paydown. Over his remaining contract?
Your example is BS. It doesn’t happen like you are suggesting. Lets use an actual example.
Sale’s pay down is $17MM. We traded for a prospect that is a pre-arb2 (3 years of pre=arb left) and his current price is $770K. As a guy costing $770K he’s cheap but so are many 2Bs around baseball and some are in the Boston organization. If Vaughn puts up a sub 100 OPS+ is he helping the Red Sox or hurting them because he played when better alternatives were available. He actually provides NEGATIVE value which is an add on to the $17MM we paid for him in the Sale buy down. Each of his six years on the roster need to be evaluated versus other available players. He can only add value if he is the best choice at 2B for the price. He needs to put up a 110 OPS+ to have a $5MM value. If he puts up a 120 OPS+ his value jumps to $10-$12MM value. In the end, just like Wong, Downs and Verdugo you have to ask yourself if the player out performed his cost or did he hurt the club by being played when cheaper more effective players were available.
What are the odds ANY TEAM would take a Yoshida with multi-years on his contract for a $7.5MM buy down and give you ANY kind of decent prospect? It’s not happening just like I said above. Your example is bogus.
THERE IS NO TIME WHEN A BUYOUT is superior to a pretender prospect being included to make a deal happen.
Every buy down eliminates available money under the CAP. Boston believes in the CAP so it shrinks available funds and we’ve all seen what that does to a team. DD didn’t agree to the shrunken funds due to previous mistakes and he won every year. Bloom did and he failed every year.
Don’t limit your available funds and put yourself at a competitive disadvantage. There are better alternatives to buy downs. It’s like doing a reverse mortgage if you don’t have to. It’s not smart.
TF – one caveat I’d add is that each offseason there are very few teams that meet the combination of 1) are willing to add salary on an underwater deal to buy a prospect, 2) have the cbt space to absorb a deal, and 3) have something you want in return.
When lowering the actualncost and aav of a contract you expand th3 pool of trading partners, which, in itself does sometimes make a difference.
Back to reality:
Atl picked up the salaries for White and Gonzales ($27M) for four years of Kelenic’s maybe 2 WAR.
They also paid $5.5M of Carpenter’s salary to obtain Kerr.
Last year, the NYMs paid $70M++ to increase the return for trading Scherzer & Verlander.
This happens all the time. The idea that the RS couldn’t reach into their pocket for $7.5M is crazy.
Joe or should I call you Mr. Reality –
ALL THE DEALS WERE BAD DEALS!!!
You are trading real money today for hope in the future and if you believe in the CAP then you limit your available money for guys who actually play on your team.
This is so obvious. NEVER PAY for someone to play on another team. It’s a double whammy. You lose available money and they get the return for the player. The alternative is to trade resources instead which DOE NOT LIMIT your available pay to maximize your team. A NO BRAINER!!!!
only a moron wouldn’t understand that paying down a contract is a means to improve the return a team gets back. I don’t even think you believe that’s the case.
Joe: I believe Breslow told ownership that he can rebuild and be competitive at the same time. Breslow obviously has an eye on the future, but Werner said recently that they are trusting Breslow to deliver on his pledge to be competitive.
I don’t think trust has anything to do with it. There is no way to be competitive in 2024 without spending some money. TO is outspending us by $48M. NYY is outspending us by $114M.
There aren’t enough smart moves available to make up that difference.
Joe: Yes, but the Rays are making the playoffs spending a lot less than the Red Sox. It seems like John Henry looks at that and says, “Why should I pay luxury tax? If I outspend the Rays, we should be very successful if the money is allocated well.” So, I am guessing John Henry thinks he is spending enough, but it needs to be allocated better.
Joe: Here is the quote from Werner I was referring to:
“In the end, we don’t have a line in terms of our payroll that we look at as much as trusting that Craig (Breslow) is going to deliver on his assurance that we’re going to be competitive.”
boston.com/sports/boston-red-sox/2024/01/16/boston…
Suit – Henry has had a hard-on to emulate the spend low model since he bought the team. He wanted it with Beane, and got Theo. He wanted it with Cherington. He wanted it with Bloom.
One thing that makes the TB model easier for TB is all those high comp round draft picks year in and out, and, people tend to ignore what having an extra late 1st or late 2nd rounder does, not just for selection purposes, but, inflating your bonus pool as well.
Suit – every time you get a reactive quote that is damage control to bad press and swirlling rumors painting the team brass in a bad light I tendnto give it less weight, don’t you?
GA: Agree with what you say about the Rays. I think Breslow told ownership he could field a competitive teamat this budget level.
I think he could, as blooms contracts roll off. Key word competitive, not WS caliber. Subtract Jansen, Story, and Martin and that’s another SP.
Also should be able to ditch Yoshida by that point with only 2 years left on his deal, it becomes movable to let a kid play.
The Devers deal is an albatross, not much you can do with it, just watch it as an enduring symbol of Boston’s worst executive in 50 years.
suit – Even if Breslow said that just to get the job, do you honestly think that will happen in the next 5 years?
He is a rookie, never been HOBO before, never had a job before that didn’t involve just pitchers.
Fever: Good point. It may or may not succeed.
At least trade Jansen to get something in return.
Well to my eternal question???? Oh I see … he hasn’t signed yet…
Wait till trade deadline
Jansen can’t hold a runner on for anything. So a late inning walk or hit is going be a double. He won’t be the guy I wanted in a critical situation.
I don’t think he was that good in 2022 with Atlanta
Ben – His 41 saves in ATL are an effective argument against your opinion.
Mr Henry… how bout this…. Trade Jansen for Mookie and pretend this nightmare never happened?? Or bring back Brais… same difference….
The Sox need an overall bris rather than a Brais.
Olm – Where ya been? I haven’t seen ya in the Brais article …. the one where the Yankees are seriously pursuing him.
What are your thoughts about him in pinstripes? Who ya gonna root for now?
Fever … I got up at 145 to get ready for work today… I saw that… I called in sick lol.. I believe I was 11 comment!!!
Martin over the past 5 season including shortened covid 2020, has an 2.48 ERA with exactly 9.0 K’s per 9 innings. He got a late start to his professional career at age 28 and didn’t pitch in 2017 due to injuries. there aren’t as many miles on that arm as people think. He’s got at least 3 more years of solid if not spectacular 65 innings a season in him. Trade Jensen for SP. Marlins look like a prime matchup with their closing situation interchangeable every season.
The fact that we’re discussing that the Red Sox need to dump 16 million of salary in order to make the moves they want, despite being well below the luxury tax, says all that is needed to be said about John Henry and co. They’re done competing and it’s time to milk the cash cow. If this keeps up hopefully fans hold them accountable and stop attending or consuming games. Only way to get this to change. It’s pathetic that a once flagship franchise is acting poverty stricken.
If joe mauer got into the Hall of Fame (laughable) then it will be a complete ripoff if Mike Trout is rejected by the Hall of Fame.
1-Trout is a lock if he retires tomorrow.
2-What does this have to do with the discussion at hand?
The Black Van 3.0 – Are you suggesting Trout’s head is about the same size as Bonds so they both must be on steroids?
Too bad steroids didn’t impact the inflated numbers back in the day. It was solely the juice level of the baseball that created the high volume of HRs.
FYI… latest juice level over the last 10 years
2023 – 1.21
2022 – 1.07 Judge hits 62
2021 – 1.22
2020 – 1.28 ****** Second highest level ever
2019 – 1.39 ****** Highest level EVER
2018 – 1.15
2017 – 1.26
2016 – 1.16
2015 – 1.01
2014 – 0.86
Other key years
2001 – 1.12 Bonds hits 73
1998 – 1.04 McGwire hits 70 Sosa hits 66
1961 – 0.95 Maris hits 61
1927 – 0.37 Ruth hits 60
2019 remains the most juiced ball in history and Alonso, Suarez, Soler, Bellinger and Trout led the majors that year with 53, 49, 48, 47 and 45 respectively.
It must be great for the current players to enjoy the juiced ball without anyone shouting Steroids. Just more proof, steroids DID NOT impact the HRs in the 90s and early 2000s.
The baseball juice as measured by HR/GM/YEAR indicate there have only been 5 seasons when the number has been greater than 1.2 and they all have occurred sine 2017!!! Why are the young hitters so powerful? The most juiced balls of all time have been used in the last 7 years.
Does not matter because after fisher John Henry is the worst owner in baseball because he is super cheap!!!
Breslow is “monitoring” the outcome of this poll.
The payroll is not at $178M. You need to scroll to the bottom of the FanGraphs page where it lists it at $198M. Redsoxpayroll on Twitter, who tracks the payroll, lists it at $201.8M.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/u/0/d/1WWRsQNsGZkWuJZwlY8–xVBXMJGjh230D45KiHTHuvY/htmlview
Right now projected team payroll comes up as $171.3 million.
CBT value, which is different than what’s actually being paid, is $190.5 million.
I believe Rhyde was citing CBT payroll. Roster Resource has their CBT payroll at $198M. Every site has a different value, but their CBT payroll seems to be around $200M now.
Suit – could be.
BUT, given the pushback and tone from Boston ownership, CBT isn’t the number to focus on this offseason. The number that matters is the ACTUAL payroll that checks are being written out of the coffers on.
We know boston isn’t going to breach CBT. Breslow doesn’t have that backing financially. What to focus on, especially when brass says things like our actual payroll may wind up less than last season is how much money is going out the door, and CBT isn’t what reflects that.
EVERYONE – There is no precise number for the current spending because arbitration and pre-arb salaries have not been agreed to.
Also, things like Benefits, minor league bonuses and several other miscellaneous items contribute to the Luxury Tax total.
Since Fangraphs is such a crap site for information I’d use one of the others like SPOTRAC or COT’s.
When a team makes as much profits as Boston, it seems silly that fans have to argue about the payroll total. We should be focused on the needs and how Breslow is going to fulfill those needs. Unfortunately, with Breslow it’s not a case of when it’s a case of IF. He seems to have his own agenda and that’s what Bloom did. Yes, Mookie was the owners’s agenda but everything else was Bloom. The 2018 Champ roster tear down was all Bloom.
Signing guys we don’t need, that’s all Breslow. So at this point, frankly, who cares how much money is left. He’s not doing the obvious things to improve the team to make them competitive in 2024 so who cares how much money is left or if we are going to go over.
The Red Sox are no better off than when they had Bloom. At least Bloom and Cora had issues so Bloom did have some redeeming qualities. Can’t say that yet for Breslow.
There is no precise number for the current spending because arbitration and pre-arb salaries have not been agreed to.
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I thought we had agreed with all out arbitration players?
Joe – we did.
I think some spreadsheets guys look at haven’t been updated, and, for pre-arb guys I don’t think the deadline to renew contracts at least years salary has passed yet.
While you never know if a multi-year extension will come out of any of those,.I doubt it happens, especially this year. Breslow probably wants his guys to work with the kids for a while before making those types.of commitments
Red Sox may want to go ‘full throttle rebuild.”
Put Martin out there and watch your phones explode. The guy is a strike thrower who keeps the ball on the ground. Any one of a dozen teams would welcome him.
Trade the whole team ownership does not care no one wants to play here cause of the owners thanks Henry for destroying a great organization.
Boy
These fens of a team not trying to buy a championship sure seem happy
-signed: A Dodger Fan
Why not give braiser another go. 3rd times the charm
Gravy… do you live on top of a mountain???
Greg Weisert is a solid closing option
Blackpink – Troll much. You didn’t say a damn thing but insulted a lot of people. That’s the actions of a Troll. Go somewhere else to comment or be a man and actually make a point!!! It’s great to be anonymous and take cheap shots you loser.
TF – FYI you’re talking to the former Cards kid who got banned from some other Cards forum, he gets pleasure out of attacking fans especially Sox fans. Probably best to just put him on mute.
Trade Jansen now. If you’re out of it at the deadline, trade Martin.
For what? A 10yr old for when we finally make the playoffs?
You know what, F it. Let’s trade every player making over $10 million
This entire topic is ridiculous. I wish anyone with the Red Sox management would start using their heads or convey honesty. Journalists covering the Red Sox should start to hold the team accountable for everything they put out, and question what they say versus what they do. The track record is so bad at this point that it is journalistic malpractice to parrot the team anymore without challenging it with skepticism.
Jansen is on a two-year contract. He is gone after the season. Today the Red Sox are far away from the competitive balance tax. If they lower payroll further what does that mean towards signing one elite pitcher? NOTHING. They either want the starter, or they do not. If they don’t, what does any of it matter to a last place team? You can always sign a player then look to cut payroll after you have signed them. We haven’t even heard that as an option. I am not going to believe Fenway is filled with low brain power idiots. They know signing what they need than making adjustments is not only more efficient, but the preferred way to fix problems.
Trading their closer who is on a one-year contract only makes sense if the return is worth the trade. We are not getting back any upper tier prospects, and we may actually have to eat a portion of the contract to improve the return. It creates a new problem. We will have no closer. Someone will have to fill the role that is unproven. We will also have to replace that pitcher taking the closer job with someone from the minors, and we have such thin pitching down there that it will inevitably be a subpar pitcher. The amount of money saved would not be to stay below the cap, and the amount we are already below the cap would not make the signing of any player currently in the major leagues place us above the cap.
Is there any guarantee that any potential target that would make a sizable difference will still be available, and want to sign with the Red Sox amidst all their problems? There are only two difference makers left to sign and the Red So have made it clear they will low ball them. This is an exercise in futility. Why would either of Snell or Montgomery take a smaller contract to play for a team that is admitting openly they do not have the means to improve the team around them, nor do they have the desire even if they had the money?
William – Excellent. Couldn’t have said it better. All we can do is sit and shake or heads at the actions of the owners and Breslow.
We’ll take him. Sox will have to eat almost his whole salary though lol…
Neither would bring much in return and they’d undoubtedly have to agree to pay part of Jansen’s salary. That accomplishes nothing. On the other hand, why have a closer when you won’t have many wins to close?
Red Sox: trade everyone over 26 years old and let’s plunge into a year or two of record losses and savor it. Finishing fifth with 81 wins and knowing the future is more of the same, or 51 wins with hope?
My Orioles are built to win. Weak link, IMO, is no Bautista. Do not feel good at all with Kimbral back there. If Sox are truly tanking, Jansen and cash … a lot of cash … for maybe an Ortiz or Norby. Jansen in set up role (and closer, as needed) for Birds in 24.
The value is good, but I am not sure Ortiz or Norby are good fits. Does Hall sound right?
Hey Joe, I went Ortiz or Norby because I thought I read that Sox were looking for a long term up the middle infield D solution?
Hall? Oof. To me, an immense physical talent that is more of a thrower than pitcher. If I were the Sox, I’d look elsewhere.
C Yards – No pay down for Jansen. It’s $16MM. You spent $13MM on a far lesser reliever. I’d ask for a prospect and have you pay the whole price for Jansen. Maybe in May when you guys start watching Kimbrel fail you’ll become a little more aware of reality.
Trollfree – appreciate the take. Don’t know either player enough to know who’s better. Sounds like you have a pretty good feel for Jansen’s value. Don’t think Os FO would pony up the $16 mil. IE combined with Kimbral that would put club at 29 mil in FA spending. Hell, last year Os topped out at around 22 mil on Gibson, Frazier and Givens signings. Seven mil increase is big dollars for small market Baltimore. Can’t see owner Angelos signing off on it
Kimbrel had a better ERA, better Whip, and better K/W. There is no chance they would trade for Jansen at his current price tag.
Joe – No offense but this is another BS comment. You have no idea. You are talking about going to a team comparable to the Dodgers of 2022. He played for Cora on a bad team so his numbers fell off a bit but his stuff didn’t. He’s still one of the best relievers in baseball and his pay suits his skills. Hader now makes more and Diaz makes more. Kimbrel is the same age and makes $4MM less because of the last three years which represent their current skills:
Kimbrel
2021 – Injured 8 games 5.09 ERA and 1.22 WHIP for LAD
2022 – 22 saves 3,75 ERA and 1.32 WHIP for SD
2023 – 23 saves 3.25 ERA and 1.04 WHIP for PHI
Played for three contenders with limited saves and one good season out of three
Jansen
2021 – 38 saves 2.22 ERA and 1.04 WHIP for LAD
2022 – 41 saves 3.38 ERA and 1.05 WHIP for LAD
2023 – 29 saves 3.63 ERA and 1.28 WHIP for BOS
Two great years with LAD and a lesser year with the last place BOS ball club. Expectations should be set based on volume of saves compared to Kimbrel, the potential to have a lower ERA and WHIP than Kimbrel once he’s outside of the Cora run Boston ball club. It’s a no brainer he’s far better than Kimbrel given comparable situations. BAL only needs a year so they screwed up getting Kimbrel rather than dealing for Jansen. The rookie GM would have given him away based on his deals so far.
baseballteam – Interesting comment. If only the 51 wins came with a guarantee. I don’t see this getting fixed this decade unless the owners sell the team and why would they do that, it’s a cash cow. It can fund many more sports teams for them.
See what they get and build for 2026.
LordD99 – What’s going to be different in 2026? The guys who are cheap and could be all-stars by then will be into arbitration so their prices will be rising. The clowns drafted by Bloom will still be wallowing in the minors as busts. The owners will still be cheap. Breslow will still be doing what’s best for him not the team.
The future isn’t always brighter when your current situation is a mess, it’s likely to be a mess but 2 years later. Think about the Bloom years. It actually got worse the farther into the future he stayed with the team.
I admit, I am perplexed by how the Red Sox are operating.
Yes, they’ve made it clear this is a development year, so Jansen is a surplus asset. He should be traded for areas of need. He should NOT be traded “to clear payroll;” he should be traded to get a maximum return.
bcjd – Finally, a man with reason!!! Nice comment. Too bad Breslow doesn’t seem to be focused on needs.
TF – I know you don’t like giolito. Many others don’t either.
But he’s been a dependable workhorse innings eater with upside. That’s one place he differs from the bloom signings – he would go after hurt guys trying to return that may have upside.
The Boston rotation has lacked that the last few years, and, a presence like that can really help the kids and pen.
2B was an area with need as well. I don’t like how Breslow did it, but, he did address it with a long term option.
As for Cora/Devers, at some point you need to come.to terms with ownership sometimes draws a red line in the sand and certain things are untouchable. You might as well claim he MUST trade for ohtani and Yamamoto, because those moves are just as likely and within his power.
Turn your intelligence and knowledge to good creative things man, look for ways for breslow to work under the constraints of ownership and let’s talk about those
GA – You need to understand. If we were short a SP3 to SP5 and we added Giolito as a big of a long shot for $20MM and we had the money, I wouldn’t have an issue with him. My issue is the money needed to go elsewhere because we have Bello, Houck, Crawford, Pivetta and Whitlock who are comparable depending on how much Giolito improves from his last several years. I have no issue with Giolito himself. Only the circumstances when we acquired him. I will be rooting for him to return to his form from many years ago.
The 2B add is not a Grissom issue either. It’s a we need a SP1 and SP2 and 2B is the least of the existing issues. To get a prearb1 who hasn’t exactly proven himself for $17MM before we get a SP1 or SP2 seems like a misappropriation of funds.
I won’t come to terms with Cora or Devers. They are the single largest issues with the team that are not related to an acquisition. If you can’t get behind what the team needs that’s your call. As a fan, I can’t live with two unacceptable situations. They can happen and need to happen for this team to be competitive. Defining something as hopeless is a strange set of words coming from a diehard fan. I will scream and shout about Cora and Devers until something is done because I care about the success of the team. You don’t have to. You can accept it. Everyone has different levels of passion for winning and the betterment of the team. I’m not judging you on your apathy so don’t judge me on my passion.
I guess you haven’t been reading my posts because I have defined his exact steps dozens of times:
1 – Fire Cora
2 – Move Devers
3 – Acquire a SP1 and SP2
4 – Acquire two left handed late inning relievers
5 – Trade Yoshi for money
6 – Try to gain payroll by dealing Jansen, Martin, Story, Devers, Giolito and O’Neill. Don’t do any buy downs and if you can’t move them because they’re deals are so bad then live with them until you can without a buy down.
That’s the answer on a silver platter. It’s not the direction Breslow is heading. He tinkering just like Bloom thus fata complete. This team is doomed with Breslow just like they were with Bloom. I called out Bloom in February 2020 and nobody believed me and it’s a shame they didn’t because he was a complete disaster. Now in January 2024 I’m calling out Breslow. He’s NOT what we need so fire him. I don’t care if there is no obvious replacement at the moment, fire him and start looking now before he does any more damage.
Sox should just burn it down. Trade everyone. They pretty much have made intentions clear.
Fenway the mausoleum fills with tourists. Concession prices are ridiculous. NESN provides a nice revenue stream. Why not just coast on their laurels and rake in cash.
I sincerely hope John Henry’s yacht hits an iceberg.
Stan Papi – I’ll second that hope!!! And double down and suggest 2 icebergs!!
They look to be tanking somewhat, definitely trade Jansen. 2nd division teams don’t need old and expensive closers.
bruce – Funny that’s what I said when they got Martin and Jansen. What’s the point? The only all-star acquired by Bloom was a closer for a sub .500 team. Brilliant!!
They should stop being cheap.
If they are going to contend just blow it up and rename the Team The Boston Rays!
I don’t have a problem with the Red Sox cutting payroll, but I think it’s dumb how they won’t sign middle-tier guys at a decent price to compete (Imanaga or Paxton). Their cutting back is getting ridiculous to the point that they can’t put a team on the field, and they’re fully unwilling to trade future talent, which further complicates things.
They should at least trade some of our prospects, or else we will get stuck with the likes of Dalbec and Chavis. There needs to be a fine line for competition.
Exactly. They’re just doing nothing, basically. It’s infuriating. Either actually make a halfway legitimate attempt to compete, or just blow it up already.
Giolito opening day starter. Woo hoo!
Cheer up, at least it’s (hopefully) not Nick Pivetta.
Anything is better than kluber.
Might as well we’re going to suck. Hopefully they’ll keep Martin for now.
Jansen just doesn’t fit our team age wise. Stuff wise he’s great but we’re trying to build a dynasty so trade him. Martin too but for those Controllable younger SPs. Next year Burns, Fried, Soto and maybe Cole if he opts out. 2025 will be the go year. Settling fully in 2026 but look to winter 2024 for huge acquisitions. It’s time John Henry.
nesn.com/2023/10/red-sox-pitcher-shows-off-develop…
Do you remember Nick Pivetta last year vs 2022.He was like a Renaissance Man in ’23. John Schreiber is into the same program. The Sox have bought into the program call ‘Driveline’. Check it out…
Now re. the names bandied about today: Jansen, Martin, Houck, Whitlock.
I say look to trading Devers. He’s the only albatross in the line-up $30 M with no field position to play for the Sox. Either look to trade Devers to a contender that wants to win now for some young pitching studs. Devers becomes an expensive 3B or DH for the new team, Sox sign Chapman to shore up the D as is mentioned in every Sox column. on MLBTR.
You can’t get much for Masa without eating 1/2 of his salary–keep him as your DH with only Emergency Outfield Duties.
If you’re going to be the Boston Rays–make the 13 pitchers–the best 13 without breaking the bank. Devers could return 2-3 very good prospects.
Look to the Dodgers, Texas, San Diego.
I would hold onto Jansen unless by eating $7 M you get a decent prospect for a 20-30 Save Guy.. Montgomery is the guy they need to sign–moving Devers gives you the cash. Duvall is a mystery–Is he looking for more than $10 M?–move on if he is. and sign Justin Turner as a 1 B, 3 B, DH Emergency 2 B. You still have Bobby Dalbec as a back-up RHDH, 3 B, SS, 2 B and 1 B also RF, LF.
Devers isn’t returning much for pitchers or prospects without paying down a LOT of salary.
You can buy a dh who hits 30hr power for 12-15m a year. That’s Devers value right now with his 126 ops+. A 15m/yr man signed to a 31m/yr contract.
I’m sick of the news reported that the Red Sox are in on every FA but don’t ever sign any of them. It’s all gaslighting to make fans believe they’re trying when it’s obvious they’re not.
Red Sox owneeshop stated that they’re selling tickets for Fenway as a living museum and not to watch the team. That’s insane. Then they called their own fans liars who ever says they’re not trying to win.
They piss on us then tell us it’s raining.
To top that off the Patriots are not the N.E Communists. I’m done supporting any of these teams. Soom as you mix politics with sports I’m gone.
It’s a rebuild year for the Sox. If someone is willing to pay, hear it out.