The Reds’ search for starting pitching help has resulted in deals with Frankie Montas and Nick Martinez, while the team has been linked to several other pitchers who either remain available (in trades or in free agency) or have since landed elsewhere. MLB.com’s Mark Sheldon reports that one of those now-signed pitching targets included Wade Miley, as Cincinnati had some talks with the veteran left-hander before Miley re-signed with the Brewers.
There’s plenty of familiarity between the two sides, as Miley pitched for the Reds in 2020-21 and posted a 3.55 ERA over 177 1/3 innings. The Reds held a $10MM club option on his services for 2022, yet as part of a payroll cutback, Cincinnati put Miley on waivers (where he was quickly claimed by the Cubs) in order to part ways without even paying the $1MM buyout on that option. Miley has since posted a 3.15 ERA in 157 1/3 innings with Chicago and Milwaukee since the start of the 2022 campaign, though injuries again limited his availability.
Miley received $8.5MM in guaranteed money in his one-year deal with the Brewers, and the Reds went beyond that price range in their one-year, $16MM deal with Montas. With $106.2MM spent so far this winter, Cincinnati has been one of the offseason’s busier teams in free agency, and it seems possible the Reds might not be done with their efforts to bolster the pitching staff.
More from around the National League…
- The Mets have added several relievers this offseason, including Jorge Lopez, Michael Tonkin, Austin Adams, and a spate of pitchers signed to minor league contracts. However, “a more robust signing for the bullpen shouldn’t be ruled out,” The Athletic’s Will Sammon writes, after the Mets address some more pressing needs. Those hoping for a reunion between Josh Hader and David Stearns in Queens may be out of luck since New York isn’t expected to pursue any long-term deals until at least next offseason, yet the Mets could still look to add a prominent reliever without necessarily shopping at the very top of the free agent market.
- In other Mets news, Sammon writes that Starling Marte may play some winter ball in his native Dominican Republic this month, as the outfielder is looking to get back to full fitness after an injury-plagued pair of seasons. Marte battled through leg and groin injuries in 2022 and underwent surgery on both groins following that season, then hit only .248/.301/.324 over 341 plate appearances and 86 games in 2023. In addition to some lingering after-effects from his groin surgery, Marte also missed time due to a neck strain, migraines, and then another groin strain that brought his season to a close on August 7. Marte is therefore a question mark as he heads into his age-35 season, and the Mets’ recent acquisition of Tyrone Taylor might not be the last outfield add the club makes, Sammon observes.
- Janson Junk has started seven of his nine career MLB games and 86 of his 112 career minor league appearances, but Curt Hogg of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel wonders if Junk’s future might ultimately be as a relief pitcher. In the second of his two Major League appearances with the Brewers last season, Hogg noted that Junk’s fastball twice hit 96mph on the radar gun, a significant step beyond his 92.1mph fastball velocity in Triple-A. If this extra velo is sustainable in a more limited relief capacity, Junk’s fastball suddenly become a more dangerous pitch, perhaps making him an interesting bullpen candidate since he can pair that upgraded heater with a solid curveball. Teams usually don’t look to transition starting pitchers to relief work unless circumstances or performance demands because rotation depth is so valuable, yet should Junk (who has a 4.07 ERA and middling secondary metrics over 495 1/3 career minor league innings) get some looks as a reliever, it might help him more firmly find a niche in the majors.
“Those hoping for a reunion between Josh Hader and David Stearns in Queens may be out of luck since New York isn’t expected to pursue any long-term deals until at least next offseason”
This ‘the Mets won’t spend this offseason’ narrative keeps getting repeated but what is the actual source of it? Are we going by what Scherzer claims the FO told him? Because the GM who told him that is gone and Stearns is in. Mets offered a huge contract to Yamamoto and figure to be in on at least one other SP (Montgomery, Imanaga, etc).
Mets are already over the CBT and can’t realistically get under it until next offseason, which probably won’t happen, either. I don’t see why they wouldn’t spend this offseason. They need BP help and at least one SP. And they may pursue a DH as well.
The Mets wanted Yamamoto due to his young age and most of the top starters in fa are what 4/5 years older than him?
He was a rare case of a young front of the rotation pitcher that only cost money.
They haven’t shown any interest in big money long term deals this off season outside of Yamamoto so unless proven wrong, I expect the Mets to have a quiet off season.
I get that, but age or not, the Mets offered Yamamoto $300 million. That doesn’t fit the narrative of them not wanting to spend. What I’m asking is, what is this narrative based on? They’re already over the CBT for next season and it would be a struggle to get under it next season.
Further, aside from the Dodgers, how many big contracts have been handed out yet? Most teams are having a “quiet offseason” so far. The Mets have some glaring needs (SP and RP) that probably can’t be addressed in one offseason (ie, next year’s). They need to pick up at least one starter and then go for another next year because their minor league pitching is not good.
The key words are “may” and “not expected”
In other words, it’s speculation based on educated guesses.
Again, Yamamoto was the EXCEPTION. Everything but that, does fit the narrative. If another potential star, age 25 or younger, becomes a free agent, I’m sure they will be willing to spend.
@rct,
The sources are David Stearns and Steve Cohen – POBO and Owner in their public comments. Other than Yamamoto, they’re taking a more modest approach this offseason to not lock themselves into major deals for older free agents that could impact roster flexibility in the coming years. Mets are waiting for the farm to bear fruit, to be major source of sustained success, and hold onto their better prospects rather than trade for rentals. Currently, they’re signing players to one-year deals but they may go beyond that now to address some holes.
Therefore, though they would like to compete for 2024 postseason, they’re more broadly focused on 2025, 2026 when a bunch of prospects become big league ready, and then the Mets are all in, including in the free agent market where it fits. Soto if hits the open market next offseason who will be just 26. Also will need an ace#2 next offseason..
Mets have some good starting pitching in AA,/AAA, some of whom may debut in the majors in 2024. Keep eye on Vasil, Tidwell, Scott.
There are different tiers of being over the cap. It’s possible Mets are trying to get lower in the tier, or will trade off some players at the deadline to lower the payroll. and perhaps reset for 2025 to under the cap.
Congratulations on all the efforts to find Wander Franco! He’s finally be found! Sorry Rays fans.
You mean like John Wetteland? Or Chad Curtis? Or Sergio Mitre? Or Chuck Knoblauch? Or Mel Hall? Or Brien Taylor? Or Steve Howe? Or Jim Leyritz? Or Esteban Loaiza?
The Rays have a long way to go before they reach the cesspool known as the Yankees.
Yankees do a long history of scumbags, don’t they? Thats why they make them shave and don’t put names on the jersey backs. Makes it more difficult for law enforcement to find them.
@whyhayzee-Hey take it easy big fella! Were you the guy hiding Wander? Or were you the guy that encouraged him to turn himself in? Certainly sounds like one or the other. Were you his lst call? LOLOL!
Steve Howe had drug problems – that doesn’t make him a bad person. He doesn’t belong in the same list as Knoblauch, Curtis et al, unless he had a violent / abusive history that I’m unaware of.
That said, Captain Judge’s “jokes” ARE quite tiresome. I agree with the spirit of your comment.
I went a little over the top, but the last people who should make fun of the Wander Franco situation are Yankee fans. In all fairness, they have also had some of the finer humans to walk this earth. It’s just that they haven’t seemed to worry too much about character in their recruitment of players. And their fans certainly don’t care either.
Jonathan Loaisiga, not Esteban Loaiza.
As a Mets fan I would love to see the team find a mix that made them a contender in 2024, but the reality is this team has a lot of holes. I believe they see Montgomery as a bandaid and Snell as too big of a risk. When you need 2 SPs, a solid BP arm or two, at least one bat (if not 2), and have some defensive concerns it is hard to fix in a single offseason, hence 25 or 26 is much more practical.
while i think its unlikely they get under the CBT it is realistically possible as right now they are 60 mil away from getting under. .
Alonso is already swirling in the rumors and thats 20M
Maybe a Marte + Baty which would be sell lows on both but baty upside might be enough to get something and clear a good portion of Marte maybe 15-20M
and even i dont think the mets will be realistically competitive so trading off 20-25M at the deadline seems very real between quintana, railey, houser, and maybe severino and omar turns it around as they are all playing for contracts and you know how all of a sudden people play better.
If you are asking who will replace them. they will do what they did last season and just use fillers from the minors. because all those guys were gone end of year anyways or through waivers.
Again not likely but definitely can. Remember when everyone thought David Price was unable to be moved off the red sox or Carl Crawford.
I think positioning themselves to dip under at the deadline if they’re not in a position to compete, as you’ve mentioned.
It’s what I would do.
NYM won’t spend this off-season should be translated as “NYM won’t be panic signing risky players to long term deals”. And on that front Stearns is on point. Marte was the catalyst to team April-August 2022. His nagging injuries and going down last season had much to do with lackluster offense last year. Bounce back candidate as much as these available bats some elements of base are getting worked up about
Marte is definitely a bounce back candidate, but he’s also entering his age 35 season so it’s reasonable to be skeptical of sustained future success.
But an acquiring team need only worry about a playoff run + 1 Season. What GM does not love what would essentially be a 1 year deal at that point.
@10centBeerNight NYM won’t spend this off-season should be translated as…
“…NYM simply won’t be contending in 2024, an obvious enough point given it’s an old team and payroll is already $297 million—then there’s the fact that the 26 players likeliest to comprise the 2024 OD 26-man roster combined for +22.6 WAR in 2023, meaning if those players simply repeat their 2023 performances next season the 2024 Mets will win roughly 71 games.
McNeil’s a bounceback candidate given his underlying numbers, to around 3 wins. Marte isn’t a bounceback candidate because we have no idea yet if he can even play—though since he was a negative producer in 2023 (–1.1 WAR) he’ll add a win if he’s replaced by replacement level players (0.0 WAR).
Candidates for modest decline are Lindor, Nimmo, DJ Stewart, Houser, Senga, Taylor, Raley, Megill, Peterson, Lucchesi, and Butto. A certainty for modest decline (0.2 WAR to 0.0 WAR) is Mauricio.
Candidates for modest improvement are McNeil, Alonso, Alvarez.
Players who almost have to improve given they didn’t play in 2023 or were awful are Diaz, Vientos, Baty.
This is not a team that’s going to surprise anyone. They’re not adding an extremely good starting pitcher. A decent setup man (which they’re better find) isn’t going to move the needle.
—-Fans are strange. (Not saying that of you.) This is an old 75-87 team that lost / traded 16 players who combined to give the Mets 12 wins in 2023, but 2/3 of the people posting on Mets boards thinks that adding Houser and Taylor has the team a LFer and a #3 starter away from a shot at the third wildcard.
Edit: fwiw 71 wins in the context of their 2023 performance carried to 2024 is generous for how it doesn’t dock wins for a bullpen that after Raley and Smith is carrying several negative WAR producers, members of the Stearns Bullpen Refurbishing Society.
This is just a bad team with an old nucleus. The Mets best, most expensive players are 30 and over except Alonso (and Alvarez), who’s 29. Post-prime age nuclei tend strongly to lose half a win per player per player from that cohort—meaning they’ll tend to lose 3 wins a year from their old, good nucleus, and when you rate to lose 3 wins a year to age-related decline until the contracts of old players run out, it means just to tread water, just to add 3 wins to compensate for losing 3 wins, you have to bring up a prospect every year who turns into Francisco Alonso or Brandon Nimmo.
The 2023 Mets had only 5 two-win players. The 2023 Red Sox had TEN two-win players and won 78 games. The Pirates had 6 two-win players. The Reds had 7 two-win players. The Mets just don’t have enough good players to get to .500, never mind contend
This is what happens when, during in the 2020-21 offseason, your billionaire team owner thinks to himself “how hard can this be? I can do this!”
@JackStrawb Spot on Jack as usual. My only comment is why not trade Alonso at this point? If he stays for a wasted 2024 as we agree it will be he will turn 30. His homers are against weak teams; just look at the stats and not the division leaders/winners.. And now at 30 you are going to have to sign him to big Borass money?
Doesn’t make sense to me.
Secondly Cohen should cut or subsidize concessions and but ticket prices knowing they are throwing in the towel.
“how hard can this be?” Especially when you hire inEppler
I wouldn’t be at all surprised to read the following headline within the next 7-10 days:
‘Mets sign Hader to 8 year/$167 MM deal’
Unless of course the Dodgers offer 14/$285 with $284.995 MM deferred until 2058.
I would be stunned if the Mets signed Hader. I thought they would be in on Matsui. I have to think there’s at least one significant BP move coming.
I wish the inclusion of “Junk” in the headline was a thrown in from MLBTR authors phoning it in for the New Year, and not a reference to RHP Janson Junk.
If it makes you feel better it really could be both…
Yes Junk like a 1975 Ford Maverick
An All Time Piece of Junk
My first car was actually a 76 Maverick I bought when I was a naive 16 year old in 2006. I paid 1,100 for it from an older neighbor and boy did that thing blow. I wanted a “classic car” as my first vehicle but I should have just bought an old 91 civic with like 190,000 miles on it. It would have been so much better. But I had to have my “classic car” lol
Hahahahaoh the Maverick was a classic, especially in cold weather
It woukd not start and when it did, it would conk out
It was a piece of junk and a rust bucket
I had to have it though! All those after school work hours and landscaping during the summers for nothing lol
I would like to see the Reds still add Bieber or another starter. They obviously are going for it this year. I would just like for them to add another starter who is 100% healthy.
So not Bieber then since he battled shoulder issues last year and his numbers have been declining for years now. I’d rather see Cincy stand pat and not overpay in a trade. Let the young guys get experience. I think they have enough pitching depth to get by and still compete this year. Build this thing for the long haul not just a 1 or 2 year window.
It’s Wander Franco on line 3, just wanted to make the most out of my 1 call, much thanks!
Hold, please.
It would be cool for them to sign someone like stroman but other than that I’m happy they’ve held onto the farm so far.
They should trade for Jesus Luzardo. They have more than enough to get a deal done and match up well on a deal with Miami. He’s still only 26 and controllable for 3 more years.
Stroman’s pitching is top notch. His attitude isn’t. I don’t think they want him providing “leadership“ for the young pitching staff. The Reds have plenty of pitching depth now and the kids need to pitch.
They are “going for it” without sacrificing 2025-2027. I like it. Just want to see a proven, healthy arm but those cost too much
The Mets already have the highest paid Closer in baseball coming back next season, why would they also want the highest paid set-up man?
Hader is only likely to sign somewhere where he close. Texas makes the most sense but the Phillies, Cubs and Mariners could also use a Closer
@Rsox A team that will struggle to win 75 with the current roster spending $100m to sign Hader easily qualifies as the most bizarre FA suggestion I’ve seen for the 2023-24 offseason.
Which team are you referring to?
I could see the Yankees willing ton spend some of that Yamamoto money on Hader now.
glad reds passed on Miley
I can see your point but at the same time you can never have too much starting pitching, veteran at that. Are you comfortable with the arms the Reds currently have or would you like to see them add? Is so, who?
dgreds…..Aroldis Chapman
Larry Brown’s crank.. It sounded to me more like Miley passing on the Reds. I wasn’t aware of the million dollar option they had on him. If they released him just to keep from paying a million dollars, after the success he had as a Red, then that’s shady pool imo..
fair point, titanic….im strictly talking pitching. but I get ya. I like that the 2024 Reds are all in, in a weak ass division. the new arms, plus the natural progression of Greene and Lodolo,will be fun to watch. and a new clean up hitter. I dont dwell on salaries…its not my money. Krall has proven himself worthy of trust. personnel wise. lets enjoy the ride! #2024
I think we have done enough at this point to win the division unless brewers, cardinals or cubs make a big move. I don’t the the brewers will and the cardinals might have made their big move signing sonny gray.
My question is why do you think Greene and Lodolo will have “progression”? They both had regression last year. I get lodolo wasn’t healthy but he was horrible the 7 games he pitched.
As I said we should win the division but if montas is not healthy we might not. Pitching should be a little better. Martinez has to be better than luke weaver was last year but I feel like it will be similar to last season where we will be top 1/3 of the league in most offensive categories but bottom 3rd of the league in rotation pitching stats with bull pen middle of the league. Finishing 10th of 15 teams is starter era instead of 14th like last year should improve us 4 wins which would get us in the playoffs with our offense. 86 wins with a 12 team postseason should do it especially if 86 wins wins the division.
Not shady pool in the least. It was a million buy out. And it worked out better for Wade. Someone claimed him who was willing to pick up his option. Everyone wins
Maybe, maybe not. But those are the type of things players take note of when deciding who to sign (or re-sign) with. Might have a lot to do with why they had to settle with who they have gotten and the exorbitant price for that type of player.
Janson Junk. What a great name.
Matches your writing
Montas has essentially been overperforming his Forecasted Run Average in comparison to his ERA his whole career. He’s mostly been a 4.14 FRA pitcher his whole career but I guess it helped playing in Oakland. If I’m a Cincy fan, I’d have to expect him to post a 4+ ERA this season. Enjoy!
Nick Martinez is another guy who’s overperformed his Forecasted Run Average in comparison to his ERA his whole career. He’s more of a 4+ ERA pitcher and his xERA, which is an accepted stat that many on here discuss, confirms the past two seasons to be true.
Not sure how that’s going to play in GABP given he’s only faced 6 batters there and surrendered a solo HR.
As for the Mets and Jorge Lopez, the good news is that for most of his career, he’s underperformed his FRA compared to this ERA, meaning he’s actually pitched better than the ERA results show. Having said that, his career FRA sits around 4.90. Not the sign of an effective bullpen piece so it’s a good thing he’s in the minors where he belongs…
Janson Junk probably should consider transitioning to the pen to see if he can find a spot there. His kwERA in AAA is 4.06 and an 8% regression in production moving from the minors to majors sees that spike to 4.95, which is in line with his major numbers. But, as shown above, guys can get paid well for posting 4+ ERAs in the majors so maybe he just needs a bit more time as a SP?
Regardless of his or MKE’s long term plan, I almost expect he’ll pitch out of the pen early on. Certainly wouldn’t be the first starter they transitioned to the pen for their first extended big league time.
Sleepy Stearns goes to sleep at night counting his money instead of sheep. Someone let him know that the offseason started almost 2 months ago
Lodolo has only made 26 starts. theres no arm injuries. thats great. in 137 innings….he’s walked 49 batters, and struck out 178. focus on that for this year. that shows excellent upside to me. time for a healthy year and I’d take say…….14-9 4.33 era as progressive
A lot of hopes and dreams and woulda shoulda for an allegedly competing team. Hope it works out. The good thing is outside the last place Cardinals (weird to say), no one really got any better in the division. 86 or 87 wins again will probably take it.
@LarryB
Great point. I’m higher on Lodolo than Greene as far as who will be more impactful in 2024. Greene, gives up lltons of long balls and gets raked….a lot!
Gonna be a fun year to watch a solid young Reds team.
Every pitch from Janson is a Junk ball.