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Mets, Phillies Interested In Robert Stephenson

By Darragh McDonald | January 19, 2024 at 11:20am CDT

Free agent right-hander Robert Stephenson continues to receive plenty of attention, with Jon Morosi of MLB.com listing the Mets, Dodgers and Phillies as clubs with interest in him. The Dodgers have previously been connected to the righty, as have the Rangers, Yankees, Astros, Angels, Cubs, Red Sox and Orioles, though some of those clubs have subsequently pivoted to other bullpen moves.

Though Stephenson might not be a household name, the popularity is understandable since Stephenson was one of the best relievers in the game during the second half of 2023. The Rays acquired him from the Pirates in early June and he went on to make 42 appearances for Tampa with a 2.35 earned run average. He only walked 5.7% of the batters he faced in that time while punching out 42.9% of them.

From the start of June to the end of the season, only Félix Bautista, Aroldis Chapman and Pete Fairbanks had higher strikeout rates among pitchers with at least 20 innings pitched. But all three of them had higher walk rates, meaning Stephenson’s strikeout-to-walk ratio was higher than those three. At the start of the offseason, MLBTR put Stephenson in the #27 slot on the annual Top 50 Free Agents post with a prediction of a four-year, $36MM contract.

That’s a far cry from the six years and $110MM predicted for Josh Hader, which is a reflection of the differences in their track record. Hader has years of dominant relief work on his résumé while a team signing Stephenson would be banking on a few good months. But he has shown glimpses of his potential in the past, having been a first-round pick of the Reds in 2011 and a top 100 prospect as he worked his way up the minor league ladder.

He began his major league career as a starter and struggled, but a move to the bullpen seemed to work for him. He had a 3.76 ERA with the Reds in 2019, had a rough time in the shortened 2020 season, then rebounded with a 3.13 ERA for the Rockies in 2021. He struggled early in 2022 but finished strong after a claim by the Pirates. He started 2023 with some arm discomfort and struggled out of the gate, before getting traded to the Rays and having the aforementioned breakout.

That inconsistency would appear to make him more of a risk than Hader, but that will also make him more affordable and perhaps give some more upside to whoever eventually gets him to put pen to paper. If he signs for a guarantee roughly a third of what Hader gets and then can maintain his dominance going forward, it would be a clear bargain. But another swoon in his performance would obviously push things the other way.

If the Mets were to be the club to take the plunge, it would be at least a bit of a surprise. President of baseball operations David Stearns did just say last week that he expected more work to be done on the bullpen, and owner Steve Cohen has shown that he isn’t afraid to throw money around when he wants to get a deal done. But on the other hand, the club has been shifting gears this winter, opting for short-term and depth moves as they do a sort of retool.

The only multi-year deal they’ve given out so far this winter was a two-year pact for Sean Manaea, with that deal having an opt-out halfway through. The Mets have also given one-year deals to Luis Severino Harrison Bader, Joey Wendle, Jorge López, Austin Adams and Michael Tonkin. It seems the plan is to limit long-term commitments as they assess some internal players and decide how to proceed with more aggression next winter.

Beyond their own habits this offseason, there’s the competitive balance tax to consider. Roster Resource pegs the club’s CBT number at $318MM right now, well beyond the top tier of the tax, which is $297MM. As a third-time payor at that level, all further spending comes with a 110% tax rate, meaning they would have to pay out more than double the amount Stephenson would make. Combining that with their modest operating strategy in recent months, they may not end up with Stephenson on the roster, but they could make it happen if they decided they really wanted to.

As for the Phillies, they’ve had a relatively quiet winter, apart from re-signing Aaron Nola. The 2024 bullpen looks quite similar to the 2023 version, though Craig Kimbrel reached free agency and signed with the Orioles. That relief corps posted a collective 3.58 ERA last year, the seventh-best mark in the league. But relievers are known to be a fungible bunch and the club already has a strong lineup and rotation, leaving the bullpen as an obvious target area for the remainder of the offseason.

José Alvarado, Jeff Hoffman, Seranthony Domínguez, Gregory Soto and Matt Strahm all had strong results last year, to varying degrees, and will be back this year. Orion Kerkering had an exciting season, blasting through four minor league levels and then having an enticing MLB debut. Dylan Covey had some interesting results in a low-strikeout, high-grounder fashion while Andrew Bellatti took a step back from a strong 2022 season.

It’s a strong group overall but any club could benefit from adding an elite reliever and bumping everyone down a peg on the chart. The Phillies currently have a CBT number of $252MM, per Roster Resource, which puts them over the $237MM base and nearing the $257MM second line. They finished last year between the second and third line and perhaps would be comfortable ending up in that range again. Crossing the $277MM third line would involve the club’s top pick in the 2025 draft being moved back 10 places, in addition to a higher tax rate. Perhaps the club would view that as a sort of barrier, but they have plenty of room to add a reliever on a significant contract even if that is a line they don’t want to cross.

For clubs that miss out on Hader and Stephenson, some of the other relievers still available include Aroldis Chapman, Matt Moore, David Robertson, Héctor Neris and Phil Maton.

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74 Comments

  1. VonPurpleHayes

    2 years ago

    Get it done, DD.

    7
    Reply
    • Bart Harley Jarvis

      2 years ago

      In DD we trust.

      3
      Reply
    • Kruk it

      2 years ago

      Thank God I don’t have to watch Kimbrel anymore!!

      3
      Reply
      • Bart Harley Jarvis

        2 years ago

        Kimbrel’s tightrope act in 2023 raised a lot of Phillies’ fans blood pressure.

        Reply
        • VonPurpleHayes

          2 years ago

          In retrospect, he was very good for the Phils. Everyone on the planet knew he shouldn’t have been pitching in that NLCS game. He was overused.

          3
          Reply
      • Curly Was The Smart Stooge

        2 years ago

        I hear he’s a great read…

        1
        Reply
        • TrumboRedux

          2 years ago

          He’s gonna be “kidnapped” by the Phils!

          2
          Reply
        • Bart Harley Jarvis

          2 years ago

          @TrumboRedux,
          I was waiting patiently on a Robert Louis Stevenson reference, and you came through!

          1
          Reply
        • TrumboRedux

          2 years ago

          Bart, Curly actually gets the credit with his post above mine. I was just joining in the fun!

          1
          Reply
        • Bart Harley Jarvis

          2 years ago

          @CWTSS,
          Credit where credit’s due, sir.

          1
          Reply
    • RazorRamonie

      2 years ago

      I am a fan of DDs myself

      4
      Reply
      • Flanster

        2 years ago

        Aren’t we all?

        2
        Reply
    • BoJuBi

      2 years ago

      This is why this interested in crap needs to stop. He signs with the angels right after this is posted so where was the info coming from? When they posted this Stephenson had to be working out final details of the contract with the angels. This year’s been a joke for reporting and this site is becoming more baseball chit chat then actual news/rumors site

      1
      Reply
      • Bart Harley Jarvis

        2 years ago

        Agreed, the ‘Interested In…’ headlines give MLBTR kind of a low-rent dating website feel.

        1
        Reply
  2. vaderzim

    2 years ago

    Sign him

    Reply
  3. Ben K

    2 years ago

    I’m betting the Mets improve on their record last year and even compete for a third Wild Card spot in this “take a step back” year.

    5
    Reply
    • VonPurpleHayes

      2 years ago

      It seems tough with that rotation and bullpen, but I expect better years from Alonso and McNeil.

      2
      Reply
      • PhilliesFan91

        2 years ago

        I got a feeling Alonso is gonna be traded

        1
        Reply
        • Canosucks

          2 years ago

          @PhilliesFan91 As a long time Mets fan I am hoping Alonso gets traded. He will be 30 this year; a “transition year” for the Mets and he will want BIG Borass money.

          Deep dive on his numbers he only hits bad teams and bad pitching. Take a look at his numbers against the Phils in the last few series of 23; a pitcher could do better not named Ohtani.

          1
          Reply
        • YankeesBleacherCreature

          2 years ago

          @Canosucks You can say that about any above average hitter who hits bad pitching. Otherwise, they’ll all be hitting .380/60/150.

          1
          Reply
        • PhilliesFan91

          2 years ago

          I think Alonso ends up with the cubs

          Reply
      • Ma4170

        2 years ago

        Agree on both Von, in fact i think Alonso will have a huge year more like 2022. I also think alvarez will take a step forward. That pitching staff though… Oy

        3
        Reply
      • User 401527550

        2 years ago

        They could have this years cy young winner and reliever of the year.

        Reply
        • VonPurpleHayes

          2 years ago

          Who? Senga? He had the benefit of not being scouted much last year. Now, hitters know what’s coming. He’s still very good, and I expect he’ll have a good season, but I do think we see some small regression.

          2
          Reply
        • User 401527550

          2 years ago

          He will be better than last year. He had a couple months in the beginning where the ball difference made him walk a lot of people. He figured that out and was the best pitcher in baseball after that.

          Reply
        • VonPurpleHayes

          2 years ago

          I really like his stuff. So you may be right.

          Reply
        • Ma4170

          2 years ago

          I do expect a little regression, but nothing that would keep him from being a solid 2 in the rotation, which is how I see him. I don’t think they have an ace yet.

          1
          Reply
    • Alex O.

      2 years ago

      I actually agree with you. Last year it seemed like when the offense was on, the pitching wasn’t and vice versa. Even with Scherzer and Verlander it seemed like the rotation couldn’t figure it out. Senga had a good year and hopefully he’s able to replicate it to some extent. Peterson had some good starts right before he was hurt, so hopefully he can get back on track. Megill seems like a dud. Quintana pitched well in his limited action and the Mets will be lucky to get those results back. I think Severino has a chance to be decent again. Manaea showed some good skills in the second half.

      The bullpen is shaky, but they were last year too. Stephenson would be a nice add. I like the Tonkin add and Lopez seems to have a bit more upside.

      I like what Stearns has done. Yamamoto would’ve been nice, but he’s not signing older players to ridiculous contracts. They have a lot of upside minor league guys now and he’s not going to block them.

      They will be one of the more interesting teams to watch in spring and see how some of the new guys perform.

      2
      Reply
      • lemonlyman

        2 years ago

        Gotta love the bar set by the Mets: they aren’t signing guys in their 40’s to $100M contracts, so good offseason.

        1
        Reply
    • raisinsss

      2 years ago

      I agree with you, and am buying at +3500.

      I bet they’ll have 4 starters with an ERA under 4.

      Shaping up to be an outstanding defensive club, 3B not withstanding. As someone whose only autographed merch is a Juan Lagares bat, I’m excited for Bader. Moderate bouncebacks from McNeil & marte and one of the kids hitting the ground running would be huge.

      The bullpen is full of unknowns for me, but that’s the one area I’d unconditionally trust Stearns. Mil had the 5th highest RP WAR and I couldn’t tell you two guys in their bullpen.

      2
      Reply
      • mookie1

        2 years ago

        @raisinsss

        I like your optimism. Most of the best feelings I’ve had about the Mets over the last 47 years, were from before the seasons started. That’s what being a fan is all about. Although everything working out isn’t likely, it is possible.

        1
        Reply
      • VonPurpleHayes

        2 years ago

        And, there’s absolutely 0 pressure on them this year. Last year, there was a tremendous amount of pressure and expectation. This year, they can relax and have fun.

        2
        Reply
  4. PhilliesFan91

    2 years ago

    Get it done DD , then go make a trade for Cease or Clase. Let’s go!

    1
    Reply
  5. mistborn

    2 years ago

    If he stays on what he did he is an absolute steal! Someone needs to get on it. Mets seem like a logical spot. Diaz will be the closer and Stephenson can slot right into the set up role although the Phillies have the closer carousel like the rays seem to

    1
    Reply
    • PhilliesFan91

      2 years ago

      Phillies need to add him to basically replace Kimbrel. Mets won’t be contending imo in 2024

      1
      Reply
  6. Bart Harley Jarvis

    2 years ago

    Some seriously inappropriate temu ads popping up these days.

    1
    Reply
    • Flanster

      2 years ago

      And the products look like garbage that will fall apart in a minute after you take them out of the box

      1
      Reply
    • YankeesBleacherCreature

      2 years ago

      @davey Temu’s parent company is worth over $128B selling largely cheap Chinese-made goods. They’re not that different from Amazon and Walmart retail.

      2
      Reply
    • Bart Harley Jarvis

      2 years ago

      macobserver.com/tips/how-to/how-to-block-temu-com/

      Reply
  7. DarkSide830

    2 years ago

    Ew.

    Reply
    • VonPurpleHayes

      2 years ago

      Not a fan? I think he’d be a very solid arm.

      4
      Reply
    • cpdpoet

      2 years ago

      Apparently TB tinkered with his pitch usage and his “new” slider. His grip on the slider was altered and this new cutter brought some success.
      Depending on the length of the contract, he’s a guy who would fit in perfectly with Topper’s bullpen usage.

      Question still remains who’ll become the de-facto closer like Kimbrel? Or do they go full on committee?

      1
      Reply
    • lemonlyman

      2 years ago

      Surprised to see you say this, Darkside. Stephenson was the arm I was hoping for at the start of the offseason. He seems like he’d be a great guy for Thompson to play his matchups games with and will pitch in the 7th or 9th doesn’t matter, unlike SOME people haha.

      1
      Reply
  8. swagsuperawesomeepiccoolman123

    2 years ago

    i see it too lol

    Reply
    • Alex O.

      2 years ago

      Atta boy

      1
      Reply
  9. Flanster

    2 years ago

    Get it done,Uncle Steve!!

    1
    Reply
  10. drdback

    2 years ago

    DBacks should show some interest in Stephenson. He would be a great bullpen addition.

    Reply
  11. Rsk3228

    2 years ago

    Let’s go Phils. We need to make a move or two to keep up with the arms race that is the NL.

    1
    Reply
  12. Tom the ray fan

    2 years ago

    My Rays and our eye for bullpen arms, forever grateful.

    Reply
  13. LambchoP

    2 years ago

    So basically every team is “in on him” other than my Twins….

    Reply
  14. Salzilla

    2 years ago

    I’ll be honest until this offseason he wasn’t on my radar at all, and that’s even as a fantasy player.

    Reply
  15. cpdpoet

    2 years ago

    Yeah I get that on my yahoo feed and it says it’s the most popular item in japan?

    Reply
  16. Attystephenadams

    2 years ago

    The Mets are not signing a reliever to a multi year contract, especially someone who just had a career year. Stearns is giving out one year contracts to bring them below the CBT for next year. I like what he is doing, and it’s far more sustainable than what Cohen and Eppler did last year. While they have conceded the division to the Braves already, IF everything falls the right way they have a shot at a wild card for this year, especially with so much mediocrity around.
    This just sounds like Stephenson’s agent trying to drive the price up on everyone else.

    1
    Reply
  17. Bob Evans down on UR mom

    2 years ago

    This wouldn’t be an upgrade for the Phillies. Stephenson has proven nothing he has 1 half of a good season. Phillies need to get better not make moves that keep them the same lol dude literally has 1 half of a good season and youre going to give him a 4 year deal lol that’s pathetic

    Reply
    • VonPurpleHayes

      2 years ago

      That’s what scouting is. You project what he’s going to be. It’s a gamble, but DD has done really well turning the worst bullpen in the league to one of the best. He did it on the cheap too, which allowed him to splurge elsewhere. I trust him.

      Reply
  18. Braves_saints_celts

    2 years ago

    I just don’t get why Stephenson is getting so much fanfare, and will have one of the bigger relief contracts, just because of 38 innings with the rays, when his whole career has been so up and down, you don’t know what you’ll get, yet other pitchers like ryne stanek, who had a dominant 2022 and a down, but still okay 2023 hasn’t had anything mentioned about him. Or wandy Peralta who has consistently had eras under 3 for 3 straight years. Oh but the advanced metrics. Who cares? Any team that gets Stephenson at a higher than average salary for a releiver will most likely regret it. It was the rays that did their magic with him and made him good, but leaving the rays, what will we truly get from him? I just don’t get it.

    2
    Reply
  19. krumbledkookie

    2 years ago

    Even though they need bullpen help in the worst way, the Mets will never dish out 4 years on him. Relievers are volatile, and I think any team that gives Stephenson 4 years is probably insane… or desperate. I’d give him 2 years and 20mil, not a penny more. If he wants an opt-out after year 1, so be it. He’s proven he can be super effective for half a season, that doesn’t warrant 4 years.

    1
    Reply
  20. AC Surf Baseball

    2 years ago

    Seranthony was shaky at times last year and they can’t depend on a repeat from Hoffman. Hoffman is a fine 6 or 7th inning option to pair with Strahm for those middle innings, but unless they splurge on Hader- think a move like this is necessary. I’d also look to add some SP depth for the upper minors like a James Kaprelian or Dallas Keuchel type. Also think they should consider Joey Gallo if they can get him for 5mil or less. He could play LF against RHP with Marsh in CF. He can also play 1B and be an insurance policy on Bryce. Elite power and throwing arm, even if he strikes out a ton. Or maybe Wil Myers on a minor league deal..? Surprised they haven’t been more active.

    Or they could look to the trade market. The Nationals are on the prowl for a 1B. How about trade D. Hall, M. Moore & S. Aldegheri for Hunter Harvey?

    Reply
  21. Robertowannabe1

    2 years ago

    Whoever does sign him will have some buyers remorse. Seems like he has a quick start when he has switched teams then tails off and becomes very hittable. Hope for his sake that he stops that trend this time around.

    Reply
    • VonPurpleHayes

      2 years ago

      It was the complete opposite last year.

      Reply
      • Robertowannabe1

        2 years ago

        No. Did very well for the Pirates after the trade in 2022 and last year to start. then the wheels started coming off. Got traded and started off great again not really enough time to tail off. Now will be starting anew. Guessing he will start off very good again and we shall see how he does come around to June – July again. Would not want to give him 4 years.

        Reply
        • VonPurpleHayes

          2 years ago

          4 years is tough for any reliever. I’d be afraid of that too. He did really well from June through the end of the season last year. So that’s a good sign.

          1
          Reply
  22. slider32

    2 years ago

    DD, pitching, pitching, pitching wins!

    Reply
  23. DannyQ3913

    2 years ago

    Phillies need something cause the back end of the bullpen is garbage

    Reply
    • VonPurpleHayes

      2 years ago

      It was one of the best in baseball last year. Sometimes people say things because it feels right, but this is factually incorrect. Phils bullpen is very good.

      4
      Reply
  24. jumps

    2 years ago

    I wonder if this came up because some teams saw the Hader signing coming soon. Hoping to maybe get under value before Hader sets a market.

    With Stephenson it could go a number of ways. How many years he wants and is he okay with not being the primary closer? He doesn’t have the track record to demand a long deal or be the set closer (like Hader).

    Phillies or Rangers make the most sense right now. Mets maybe, but for a “rebuild” year, I don’t see them throwing $10+M at a setup man. One thing I could see the Mets doing is signing Liam Hendriks to a 2 year deal. While he recovers from TJS, he gets an incentive laden deal to come back in 2025 to a possible contender as their setup man?

    I wouldn’t be surprised if Stephenson is signed by the end of the weekend, if not, today now that Hader is off the market.

    It’s nice to see some dominos fall since Boras and his clients are holding up the free agent market.

    Reply
  25. BPFlyers

    2 years ago

    What the hell is DD waiting for? This team has done nothing to improve!

    Reply
  26. LFGMets (Metsin7) #ConsistentlyBannedBaseballExpert

    2 years ago

    Astros get Hader, Mets get Stephenson. Really shows you the stark difference between a competant and uncompetent organization. Fire the GM, Owner, and manager

    Reply
  27. alumofuf

    2 years ago

    How about the Houston Cheaters. Big contract. Tying up a lot of funds.

    1
    Reply
    • MacGromit

      2 years ago

      TB is amazing at unlocking cheat codes in pitchers other teams have long since given up on. Stephenson is a posterchild for their mastery of refurbishment. Must be the salt air and lack of home crowd noise.

      Reply
  28. cjbay

    2 years ago

    And no Cubs. Shouldn’t be surprised

    Reply
  29. VonPurpleHayes

    2 years ago

    Well…he signed with the Angels. Now what?

    1
    Reply
    • Bill M

      2 years ago

      Neris, Moore, Robertson, Chapman, Junis. None as good as Stephenson, but all would be good additions to any pen.

      Reply
  30. JackStrawb

    2 years ago

    If the claim for Mets involvement is correct, presumably the team is looking to add a serious setup man to keep the bullpen from collapsing even if Diaz recovers well after his missed year.

    78 wins, here we come!

    Reply

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