The Mariners have begun discussing a trade for right-hander Dylan Cease with the White Sox, according to USA Today’s Bob Nightengale. Nightengale suggests that the White Sox are seeking a package centered around one of Bryce Miller or Bryan Woo, Seattle’s pair of cost-controlled righty starters. There’s no indications that a deal is particularly close or even likely, with Nightengale noting that the White Sox appear likely to retain Cease through the start of the 2024 season if a deal with Seattle doesn’t come together. That sentiment echoes other recent reports regarding Cease’s trade candidacy that have cast doubt on the likelihood he changes uniforms before Opening Day.
The report marks the first time the Mariners have been connected to Cease this winter. The right-hander has been a frequent subject of trade rumors this offseason with the Yankees, Reds, Orioles, and Red Sox among the clubs rumored to have had interest at one point or another. Despite that widespread interest, teams have largely appeared to balk at the high asking price the White Sox have set for Cease’s services. A report last month indicated that the club requested a package of four of the Cincinnati’s top prospects in negotiations with the Reds earlier this winter, and Nightengale added that talks between the White Sox and Orioles regarding Cease have “stopped” at this point in the offseason.
In negotiations with the Mariners, it appears the White Sox have pivoted from their previous ask of a hefty prospect package to instead focus on big-league ready talent. It’s an understandable move for the club to make. Woo and Miller are entering their age-24 and -25 seasons, respectively, coming off solid rookie campaigns with six seasons of team control remaining. Either righty would not only be able to immediately replace Cease in the club’s rotation mix, but would give the club another long-term asset to build around alongside star center fielder Luis Robert Jr. Robert is under team control for the next four seasons.
As for Seattle, adding Cease to their starting staff would give the club perhaps the strongest rotation in the majors. Cease is coming off a relative down season on the mound where he posted a 4.58 ERA in 177 innings of work but is just one season removed from a 2022 campaign where he placed second in AL Cy Young award voting. Over the past three seasons, Cease sports a solid 3.54 ERA (121 ERA+) and 3.40 FIP with a 29.8% strikeout rate, numbers that paint him as a solid #2 starter. The 28-year-old would likely slot into the middle of the club’s rotation alongside Logan Gilbert behind ace Luis Castillo and young star George Kirby, with whichever of Woo or Miller remained with the Mariners rounding out the club’s starting rotation.
Replacing Miller or Woo with Cease in the rotation would provide the club with additional certainty in a rotation that figures to lean heavily on young players. The most experienced pitcher aside from Castillo who currently projects for the club’s starting rotation is Gilbert, who is entering just the fourth season of his career in 2024. Kirby has just two MLB seasons under his belt, while both Miller and Woo are entering their sophomore campaigns with just 25 and 18 big league starts respectively under their belts.
Cease, by contrast, has been among the most durable starters in the league in recent years with 97 starts over the past three seasons. For a team that has long valued starting pitching depth but parted with both Marco Gonzales while swapping Robbie Ray for Anthony DeSclafani earlier this offseason, bringing a durable veteran arm in place of a young player who has yet to make 30 starts in a big league season could provide the club with an opportunity to make up for the innings lost by parting with Gonzales and Ray.
On the other hand, it would nonetheless be something of a surprise to see Seattle part with one of their young, cost-controlled arms in a deal that wouldn’t address an area of greater need such as the club’s infield, where Josh Rojas and Luis Urias project to be the everyday starters at second and third base. In addition to shopping for another infielder to add to the club’s mix, the Mariners have expressed interest in fortifying their relief corps, which currently features Andres Munoz and Matt Brash as its back-end options after the club dealt closer Paul Sewald to the Diamondbacks last summer. Recent comments from president of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto also seemed to cast doubt on the possibility of a deal involving Miller or Woo, as he suggested that retaining the duo was “Plan A” for their offseason.
Craze for Kirby? Done!
*Cease*. He doesn’t seem crazy.
I dunno, Dylan “Craze” Cease has a pretty good ring to it.
Never happen!
As a White Sox fan this makes no sense to me. The Sox are not remotely close to winning anything. They probably have less organizational talent than any franchise in baseball.
They only have Robert at the ML level and a handful of good prospects in the minors. They should trade Cease for as many (3-4) good prospects as they can get and then do the same with Robert (4-5).
Even in the weakest divsion in baseball they have NO chance to contend before 2026 or 2027. It’s hard to find a team that is more bereft of talent than the White Sox.
The last sentence I agree with.
I question your white sox loyalty and level of intelligence concerning the white sox . You certainty don’t know what your talking about concerning Robert. Robert and Cease should be off the table and the rest should on the table. I have been a GoSox fan since the 1950’s.
Robert is a lot harder to trade. I understand white Sox won’t be contenders til 2025/2026. He has 4 years left on his deal. Colson, LRJ, Bryan Ramos, etc can be a decent lineup at best.
Kinda like being a White Sox fan……
makes no sense…..
problem is no one wanted to give 3 or 4 prospects for him
Sox will never be able to sign Cease long term and the Sox are not going to the World Series this season or next.
Trade Cease or lose him for nothing when he turns FA in 2 years!
And nor they should
What is this love affair with Cease.??
The guy has had one good year out of five but I will go on to say that that good year was incredibly good! His fastball has declined three straight years. His era in those other 4 yrs is at 4.49. He throws a lot of pitches but does not go deep into games. His WHIP is not that of an ace out even. close, , about 1.40 without that great year. Yes he doesn’t miss a start. Yes this guy would be a welcome addition to a lot of pitching staff but he certainly is not a number two guy that you can count on for consistency. Everybody seems to be going nuts of the year he had two years ago but if it was batting average He’d be at .200….one for five
He is a very good pitcher. He is definitely a number 2 as u say. U have to watch him pitch. He is much better than u say
Bieber going to M’s
Bieber would not even be one of Seattle’s five best starting pitchers…
That could be true.
Lol sure
How many Cy young’s in their rotation?
Answer: NONE
Past performance is not indicative of future success.
Troll
Really? 2020 Covid Cy Young is nothing to brag about. Dude threw 77 innings…
You are so right . Many ” baseball” fans neglect that very important FACT. That was a great point to make on your part
I don’t think the Mariners want to downgrade.
I’d rather have Kirby too, but I also don’t see the White Sox wanting to flip one starter for another. The White Sox are no doubt looking for multiple pieces. He probably doesn’t get moved until mid-season, similar to what happened with Quintana.
Yeah, I lean toward agreeing with you there. The White Sox have so many holes, just acquiring Kirby doesn’t make a lot of sense, but trading Kirby straight up for Cease doesn’t make sense at all for the M’s. I really doubt anything happens here.
No way they trade Kirby for him
I agree. Unless there is a player for another player that will benefit both right away
They have a laundry list of holes. Competing it 2025/2026 is realistic.
I don’t think this is going to happen. Probably just another gesture toward “due diligence”. We have seen a lot of that from the Mariners this offseason.
Not that Cease isn’t a good pitcher. He is. But we just don’t really need him.
No way. Kirby is a better pitcher than Cease already, and younger and cheaper.
I’m down for it
DiPoto should be focused on filling needs instead of adding to a strength. Cease is fool’s gold.
Naw playa. You lack the taste for gold.
In baseball you can create home field advantage by playing to the strength of your ballpark. Reds/yanks play in a hitters parks and have built lineups to play in those parks. Sea is a pitchers park- so better the pitching, better the home field advantage and dipoto understands that and builds his roster accordingly so this is right up his ally.
Cease in Sea > cease in Cincinnati
Now enter the intelligence of coming in after everyone else has baulked at white sox asking price and filled their need else where. Dipoto is one of best gms in baseball !
Miller, Henry, Hancock, and some 19 year old lotto ticket prob gets it done while making the offseason a success at the same time
If you can get Cease for the right price then ofc it’d be helpful. But SP is also a big competitive advantage already for SEA – building more in that area is simply going to move the needle much less than improving the offense by adding an impact bat
No way Dipito makes that trade
@Big whiffa
The Miller, Henry, Hancock trade that is
Who’s the deal breaker ? Miller is really good, but comes across at his peak game imo. Henry and Hancock both have underperformed as top prospects. Sell high on those guys
Who the hell is Henry? You mean Harry? As in Harry Ford? He won’t be involved in a trade for a pitcher that’s had one elite year. Why would they trade their top prospect in a package for a mid rotation arm? That’s all he was after coming back to earth last year, and in his first 3 seasons.
What do u like about Harry Henry Ford ?? Is he some sort of pitch placement wizard ? Ranked At 38 he’s one of the top 3 overrated prospects in all of baseball, and just like 95% of top 50 Catcher prospects before him, he’s sitting at his peak value. Let some dumb organization like the white sox take him as a centerpiece for a trade that makes you much better
You seem to miss the point. You don’t trade Harry Ford for middle of the rotation guy that’s had one good year. You trade him for someone with a track record. And with his speed, I have a hard time thinking the Mariners will ever make him a catcher at the ML level. And he’s not going to bump Cal. He’s going to play somewhere else up the middle. And idk where you’re getting this BS “Henry” from.
I get the point you are making. It’s just that most scouts and teams hold cease in a much higher regard than a guy who can’t hit for average or power in A ball. Cease will put up a higher war over the next 2 seasons than Ford will over his whole career and he slots in 2 spot behind Castillo in rotation
Dylan is more talented than I think u know. I also think Henry Ford is not as good as u seem to think he is.
Cease is a good hitter maybe he is going to play 3rd base
Mariners are offering a package of Luis Urias, Josh Rojas, Dylan Moore and Sam Haggerty. Going all in on pitching.
We aren’t parting with any of our utility player collection, if anything we are getting nicky Lopez as part of the deal to add one more
Did that go right over your head? Or maybe it bounced off your head à la Canseco…
It must have i am still unsure what I missed
He was clearly being facetious with his trade offer.
And I was tious facing back
Sarcasm.
I know I was but what are you
Cease is a DIAMOND in the rough in my unqualified opinion. The white sox have blown so many trade proposals over the years. The otherside always seems to come out on the better
Always?! No
Karchner to Cubs for Garland
Quintana to Cubs for Cease & Eloy
Seems like the Cubs “always” make bad trades.
Shouldn’t it read that talks between the White Sox and Orioles have “ceased?”
That would be a huge mistake for the M’s!
Woo or Miller as a centerpiece feels like a lighter return than they’ve been asking for.
Beware since the rumor was written by Nightengale. It’s hard to tell if he’s written the piece because Reinsdorf asked him, to push an agenda. Reinsdorf/ Stoney/ Nightengale I’d take everything they say, with caution.
This would just be very odd. If they want to add a frontline starter, why not just sign Snell and retain the pitching depth they have in Miller and Woo?
Because Snell wants a metric ton of cash.
They could make a Julio Rodriguez kind of deal with Snell, pushing the cost into the future and giving them perhaps the best starting rotation in baseball.
If they get another starter they wouldn’t need all the starters they currently have. That’s why a trade makes sense although I think signing Snell and trading a starter for an infielder makes more sense.
They don’t need Cease or Snell
If all it costs is Miller and a couple prospects then why not?
Because Cease is a huge question mark, regarding who he really is. He was pretty pedestrian last year. He often had issues finding the strike zone.
Cease is good the White Sox defense let him down.
Here is something I think makes a lot more sense. Get Cease and Moncada. Mariners probably would need help paying that salary but that’s OK they can give up more in prospects.
Do you not realize Moncada has NEGATIVE value?
Moncada doesn’t have negative value if the White Sox pay his entire salary.
Money can be worked out. Happens all the time.
It never happens with Jerry Reinsdorf. I would bet every possession I have that Moncada and the $30 mil the Sox owe him stays in Chicago. No one is trading for him.
He’s not even good.
Why would a rebuilding team want or need to keep Moncada?
They said no rebuild. I kinda see them taking a bridge year approach tbh.
Seattle has a combined 25 years of team control over its current starting rotation of Luis Castillo, George Kirby, Logan Gilbert, Bryce Miller and Bryan Woo at an estimated aggregate salary* of $186.7 million, or an average annual salary less than $7.5 million per starter. Attrition always looms but in today’s pitching market, the Mariners are in an envious position.
Blake Snell may be asking for more money than the Mariners are estimated to owe their entire starting rotation over 25 years of team control.
* working off estimates at Baseball Trade Values
Snell can go jump in a lake….
There’s this thing called a budget…
White Sox can pay salary. They aren’t poor they are just trying to rebuild so they can compete again.
Exactly, Sox are aiming to 2025/2026. Seems realistic to compete.
The Mariners can afford Snell if they want him.
both miller and woo are better then Cease now. Why would they do that?
Umm, no
Depending on the odds, I’d take that bet. Either way, both Miller and Woo are far less costly than Cease and have dramatically more team control.
The numbers Woo put up as a 23 year old pitching at the MLB level are quite impressive.
Miller skipped AAA going directly from AA to MLB and was also pretty effective.
In terms of average game score, both Woo and Miller are as good or better than Cease was last year, and both of them were way better than Cease in the 2nd half.
Cease had one good year mixed around other middle of the rotation to bottom of the rotation years. Don’t act like he’s more than he is because of one season.
Apparently 12 Seattle fans tend to agree with me
I’m an Orioles fan and I would rather have 6 years of Miller/Woo than 2 of Cease.
I’m an M’s fan and I would rather they put a package together with Miller or Woo for Luis Robert. I honestly don’t understand why the M’s would make a Miller/Woo trade for Cease when they need help with their lineup
They certainly have the potential to be better.
What is Seattle thinking? Trading young, cost-controlled SP for Cease doesn’t make any sense. Cease has some major red flags, and those young pitchers could be as good -or better- than Cease.
I’m not an M’s fan, but man, I’d be mad if I was.
Absolutely correct! They don’t need more pitching, they need more offense.
As an M’s fan, I’ll add my two cents:
1) I’m pretty confident this is just due diligence and not something Dipoto will actually do. By now, we know he checks in on pretty much every player because if something piques his interest, he strikes. He recently said that he has no intention to trade from the pitching surplus and it would take an offer the front office can’t refuse.
2) If we do pull the trigger on this trade, I don’t think things would stop there necessarily (at least a major trade deadline acquisition will occur). A rotation of Castillo, Kirby, Cease, Gilbert, and DeSclafani (plus whoever is left of Woo/Miller, Hancock, and Dollard) would be pretty formidable and the M’s wouldn’t have to score a ton to win. I think they would acquire a bat at some point in the season, preferably at 3B.
I would much rather them just sign Snell and then use one of Woo/Miller to acquire a bat, but I don’t think Stanton is willing to provide the funds required to sign Snell. So Dipoto and Hollander have to get creative.
If DeSclafani ends up in the rotation then something has gone horribly wrong. Or there have been a lot of injuries.
As it stands right now I wouldn’t be surprised to see DeSclafani start the year in the rotation with Woo headed to the minors to start the year, purely for the sake of keeping Woo’s innings down. Last year was a big increase for him, and he’s a guy with TJ in his medical history. I expect them to be very careful with his workload.
They got rid of the rest of their production though. Teo, Geno and JK provided most of the thunder in the lineup. The additions MAY be equal to what they lost, only because they strike out a bit less.
The offense is not nearly playoff quality, even though the arms are well above playoff quality.
I could definitely could see that too, but when DeScalfani pitches like most of us expect him to pitch, Woo will be back up
FWIW last year Teoscar Hernandez, Eugenio Suarez and Jarred Kelenic provided OPS+ of 106, 101 and 109, respectively, on a Seattle club that posted a team OPS+ of 106.
@Cheese- Geno slugged .398 and Kelenic had 7 of his HR in April. Teo is a loss, the other two might not be
Perhaps the White Sox will pay down Moncada’s contract and send him along to play 3B.
MyAccount- I Totally agree with every single point you make re: the M’s needs
From the M’s perspective, Cease would add stability to the rotation. Miller and Woo blew past their previous innings highs.
But this rumor is probably being spread by the White Sox to drive up Cease’s price. So many DiPoto trades appear without any rumors that I’m convinced it’s the only thing he keeps his mouth shut for.
The White Sox can have fun losing for eternity at this rate. Lol. They can just lose him for nothing.
Mad about a rumor? Dipoto isn’t going to make this trade unless it’s 3 team deal for Cease + hitter
M’s need to be focused on getting position players who can actually hit.
Last year Seattle ranked ninth in MLB with a wRC+ of 107 (7 percent above average) before adding Mitch Garver (138 wRC+ in 2023) and Luke Raley (130 wRC+) this offseason.
The Mariners are always looking to improve but already have hitters who produce in a challenging environment.
Probably due to salary. Cease would be less expensive option than Snell
Spot on. I almost guarantee that’s why.
These titles are hilarious. EVERYBODY is “interested” in Dylan Cease.
Next title should be “Dylan Cease is good at baseball”.
They are interested until they hear what the White Sox want, then there is laughter and a click.
No the only laughter you hear is from Chicago when the Reds pitching falters again and you finish 73-89. But hey at least you kept all your prospects, I mean the Louisville Bats making a run for the Triple A postseason is the most important thing right?
The ace pitcher the Reds need is someone else.
That does seem to be the TL;DR of the Cease Saga so far. It doesn’t seem like anyone is in a rush to meet Getz’s reportedly unreasonable asking price, but maybe Trader Jerry will be the whale Chicago has been waiting for all this time.
But of course they are
I don’t think you read that right…they’re INTERESTED
And again, but of course they are lol
Hey, I’m “interested” in Cease too.
If joe mauer got into the Hall of Fame which is laughable, then it will be an outrage if they really do end up rejecting Ichiro and Albert from the Hall of Fame.
Hit the pipe early this morning did ya?
At least he didn’t bring up Bauer again.
Honestly, if you think Joe Mauer doesn’t belong in the Hall of Fame, baseball just isn’t your bag. Try getting into lacrosse or bowling or something.
Interesting thing to say to someone who has 200+ MLB SB and 170+ MLB HR
How many seasons on MLB the show did you play to acquire those stats?
All Star game alternate, also.
lets see your baseball reference page
Don’t feed the troll
How is Castillo an ace ? He’s been in three games and hasn’t started one.
Sorry. Their Luis Castillo link is for the wrong one.
Are you that oblivious to Luis Castillo that you clicked on his bio and thought that that was the one they were talking about? Not the one that anybody who pays any attention to baseball knows about?
Cease is coming off a down year. Getz should let him rebuild value in the first half and trade him at the deadline. Trading him this offseason would have to be at a relative discount.
Also, spending more on the rotation when they still need to work within existing payroll constraints to upgrade the infield makes no sense for the Mariners. I don’t see any real fits for Cease outside of Cincinnati.
This. White Sox aren’t rebuilding. They signed flyers to buy time for Montgomery/Ramos etc. Based on these “flyers” it looks like the white Sox are looking to compete by 2025/2026 tbh.
Clearly they have the ammo, but it will be interesting to see if they are willing to part with their riches. If they do, the NL East is looking downright cutthroat for the top 3 squads.
Reds are in the NL Central
Im sure most teams are interested in Cease, but whether they can come together with a deal remains to be seen. I think this will also give another indicator as to how good of a GM Getz will be depending on the fruits of this trade (unfortunately that will likely be at least 2-3 years from now)..
Different question here, I wonder how far in advance the Cease household buys groceries?
Not saying he reads MLBTR, but he knows he’s getting moved. Never a position 99% of us will ever be in, just has to be an odd feeling…..
Comes with the territory. Money alleviates a lot of those concerns with hiring personal assistants to do all the heavy lifting. Can’t control what you can’t control and life goes on.
It would make zero sense to trade Miller or Woo for Cease.
I don’t understand this as a White Sox fan. The Mariners and White Sox don’t match up on a trade, and doesn’t Seattle already have a pretty nice rotation with depth? I think the sox are better off just keeping Cease.
Yeah, I don’t really understand why we would trade one of Miller or Woo for a SP. I doubt this actually happens.
Now if we have money available and go out and sign Snell, then use one of Miller or Woo to trade for a bat, sure. I’m down for that.
Here is what the Dodgers were going to do; trade for Cease and then deal him to another team for pieces. So maybe the Mariners deal for Cease (let’s say for Miller) and then trade Cease to Baltimore or Cincinnati for guys.
The Pirates have three Pipeline top 100 pitchers not named Skenes and a very strong, controllable bullpen. The longer this drags on, the more I think they’ll get Cease.
I just don’t think the Pirates are ready for a deal like this. Perhaps in a year or two but not yet
Because you don’t like the idea of St Louis propping up the NL central again?
Be realistic man. The Pirates are not a Dylan Cease away from competing. Might as well keep the prospects until they are.
Cardinals trailed Pirates by quite a bit last year and they’re a Sonny Gray away from competing?
Be realistic man.
I dont think the Cardinals will make the playoffs in 2024. But I sure as heck think they have a better shot than the Pirates do. What the Pirates do have is a better farm system. Can’t give that away for Cease.
Acquiring Cease makes sense, but not at the expense of pitching depth. It makes sense because they can then flip Woo or Miller to a team that wants a longer term SP, for hitting.
Kirby, Castillo, Gilbert and Cease would be the best top 4 starters in baseball. That’s a scary rotation.
They’re better off keeping the young studs Miller and Woo.
Remember the dorks that truly felt a Reds package of Phillips, Lowder, Arroyo and Jorge was fair? What. A. Ridiculous. Idea.
Eat one!
Compared to what they will eventually get, assuming they actually deal him, it will probably be better.
Personally I don’t think he is worth that much. He is not that much better than what is already on the roster to deal four prospects.
Anyone who actually thinks the Mariners are really considering this is just dreaming anyway.
But that is a better than what the Reds got for Castillo and Cease sucks.
I think you misunderstood me. I think this so called fair return is better than what they will actually get for Cease in the end. They are not going to get what the Reds got for a long time success story in Castillo.
Will these rumors never Cease?
I don’t get it. The narrative has been Seattle is being cheap and saving money, so they might trade a cheap, controllable pitcher with more years for a more expensive one with less years coming off a bad season?
Yeah I’m not tracking with this one. Even not factoring in the salary side, pitching is our depth from which we should be trading for offense. So trading from our depth (and even more prospects) for another SP? Doesn’t track.
Maybe the Mariners trade for Cease and then deal him back to Cincinnati or Baltimore for pieces.
The Mariners don’t need any more pitchers, they need more offensive help. Trading Woo or Miller for pitching is crazy; if we trade either of them, it needs to be for offense. 2B, 3B, OF
Trade simulator says
Cease
For
Miller, Clase and either Peete or Arroyo
I think that makes sense for both teams. Mariners could afford to trade an outfielder and an infielder and the White Sox get 6 years of Miller to replace Cease.
That would be quite the accomplishment since Arroyo was traded to the Reds for Luis Castillo in 2022.
Also, the simulator only calculates based off a player’s value in a trade as opposed to their expected production. Kinda makes it a useless tool.
I have no clue what you are talking about. And neither do you.
Yes Edwin Arroyo was traded to Cincy. Seattle has Michael Arroyo too.
Trade simulator says Joey Ortiz and Ramon Urias for Freddy Freeman is a slight overpay for the Orioles.
The Orioles won’t pay Freemans salary. You have to use common sense instead of looking for reasons it’s wrong. Try that.
Just like trade simulator. Not a common sense.
Probably because of Freeman’s salary and age
Dylan Cease strikes out a lot of guys so I get why everybody seems to think his 2022 was normal output for him, but expecting anything lower than a 3.75ish ERA/FIP/xFIP from him is irrational.
Bryan Woo (a24) and Bryce Miller (a25) both made the jump from AA to MLB last year and both pitched impressively enough. Everybody has seen the ceiling for Cease. Cease probably has a higher ceiling than Miller, but it’s not as high as Woo’s IMHO.
I could see parting with Miller as he’s likely to stay a back end rotation arm for the potential a fly ball pitcher like Cease could excel in cavernous T-Mobile Park in Seattle, but I wouldn’t want to part with Woo for limited upside, less control and more money.
Make the trade with position players, then sign Snell, so Dylan would Cease to be the Ancient Mariner in their seven part rotation.
Farewell farewell but this I tell
To thee thou MLBRumor guest
He pitchith well who throwith well
Both man and bird and beast.
We were certainly starved for Mariners news. Less than an hour and there are already more than 60 comments.
I am just ready for the season to start.
Go Mariners!
And Cease is pretty good, by the way.
Cease
Moncada
20 million
For
Miller
Clase
Peete
Farmelo
White Sox need outfielders pretty bad so they get 2 of them plus an infielder and a starter with 6 years of team control. Mariners get another top of the rotation pitcher and Moncada who is a great fit for their needs.
No, thank you. I’m 0% interested in trading away Miller, Peete, and Farmelo in this deal.
Gotta give to get. Could keep Farmelo or Peete if the Mariners were willing to pay more salary but I will assume they don’t want to do that so this is the deal.
Who says M’s want Cease? White Sox are just spreading rumors.
I don’t particularly want either player. I’m fine giving to get, but not for a guy who would be either a 3 or 4 in our rotation and a 3B who may not be an upgrade over the current option (I’d rather bank on cheap, past production than an expensive player with two straight sub-100 OPS+/wRC+ seasons). Miller was worth 1.9 fWAR over 131 IP. He very well could have a better season than Cease with more seasoning, more experience, and the addition of his new splitter.
If Miller, Peete, and Farmelo are being shipped out, the return should be Isaac Paredes or better, and even then, I’m not sure it shouldn’t just be a straight swap of Miller for Paredes.
The Mariners pitchers benefit from their home park. Miller isn’t anything special he’s a mid rotation arm without a track record.
You say he’s a mid-rotation arm and then say he isn’t special. These are conflicting statements, IMO. Pre-arb, mid-rotation arms are valuable and cost a fortune in this market–and they should. Yes, Miller is the type of starter who benefits from T-Mo Park, but he has an elite BB rate and performed pretty well for doubling his IP in 2023 from 2022.
What other mid rotation pre arb arm has been traded this offseason?
He would be part of a package for the 2022 Cy Young runner up. That’s certainly valuable.
The Mariners stay put they aren’t good enough in 2024. That’s reality. 1 playoff appearance in the last 20 years.
Nobody. Because teams are asking a fortune for them. It doesn’t even need to say “pre-arb,” it just needs to say “controllable.”
Your second paragraph is you shifting the goalposts because people disagree with your narrative. Why do that? M’s having only made the playoffs once in 22 years is irrelevant to your trade proposal. Their rotation is already good. Cease’s peripherals are of a mid-rotation SP. The M’s not doing your hypothetical trade doesn’t mean they will stay put, and they surely shouldn’t make a move that makes them worse anyway. Multiple people addressed why they wouldn’t do that trade. M’s were 1 game from the playoffs last year, so definitively saying they aren’t good enough is silly. Nobody thought the Diamondbacks were either.
The Mariners rotation might be good enough but the team isn’t. Heck forget Cease go get Moncada the Mariners would be better with him than without him that’s for sure.
The Mariners would have been better off staying put since last July. Instead they keep trading away players and shedding salary. Most teams that miss the playoffs by a game try to win the next year not the Mariners.
I don’t think you’ve seen the full extent of their moves to be making that statement because it’s silly and Moncada sucks, but it doesn’t matter now anyway. We traded for Jorge Polanco instead and he’s light years better.
In what world is Jorge Polanco light years better than Moncada?
I can’t stand homer fans.
tbh, you sound like a 13 year old White Sox homer
Lmao what? Moncada who hasn’t even hit at an average clip for 4 of the past 6 years and is coming off a horrific defensive year is better than a guy who had a well above average bat every year of his career but 2017 and the covid season?
I can’t stand fans who don’t understand the sport.
They have extremely similar career numbers. To say one is light years better than the other is just stupid and wrong.
Pointing to their career numbers and refusing to acknowledge that Moncada’s 2019 season vastly inflated those numbers is either biased, ignorant, or lacks the nuance to use statistics to form an argument. If you take away that season (which is clearly an anomaly based on his track record of 4 sub-average offensive seasons in his last 6), his career triple slash is .243/.305/.397 and would lead to a career OPS+ under 100.
If anyone is making a stupid and wrong argument here, it’s you.
They are CAREER numbers. I didn’t cherry pick the stats that say what I want to believe I am looking at CAREER numbers.
Moncada has a higher ceiling and a lower floor. Both have very similar CAREER numbers.
And that’s why your analysis is poor. Because you don’t have the capability to understand the nuance between an anomaly of a season and overall career numbers. You also don’t seem to understand that the M’s wouldn’t be trading for 2019 Yoan Moncada, they would be trading for 2024 Yoan Moncada, who is a below average player and much worse than Jorge Polanco. Career numbers mean nothing without context. I don’t understand how anyone could fail to understand this.
There is a very good chance Moncada outplays Polanco in 2024. If he does and the Mariners miss the playoffs by a game again you can remember this conversation.
I’m sorry nobody wants your bad player and that it makes you so upset that nobody agrees with your horrible trade proposal. Good luck to your boy, Moncada. I hope he can finally hit league average.
He’s not my player knucklehead. I am not a White Sox fan. Unlike you I have no bias here.
So your his brother or world’s biggest fan then. No other reason you’d be such a hard head about a guy who has below average stats and literally nobody in the thread has agreed with you about.
BTW, your argument is crap. I didn’t want Moncada before the trade and I don’t want him after. I was interested in Polanco before the trade and I’m glad we got him after. That’s just having an opinion, but you don’t seem to comprehend logic. Or you’re lying and really are a 13 year old White Sox homer like deepsea suggested above.
I have no bias here unlike you. The reason “nobody agrees with me” is because it’s a Mariners thread and Mariners fans are the ones posting on it. If you want to discuss things with only Mariners fans they have a forum for that this isn’t it.
Good luck this year. 1 playoff appearance in two decades must suck.
I think that coughing 20 million within that proposed deal is somewhat of a reach IMHO. Not that it’s unreasonable. Getz just will not do that. He just wants so much for Cease. He has made his play. He wants a team’s entire top of their farm system, plus a proven major leaguer or two..I believe they keep on Cease on their roster to begin the season. Ultimately it will prove that he has overplayed his hand. That is what I think will be the final outcome.
If the White Sox don’t trade Moncada they are paying 30 million. Why not save 20 million and get prospects back to help when it actually matters?
What a horrible proposal. Such an overpay. Moncada has no value.
He has negative value. But the Mariners are poor so the White Sox would pay a large portion of his salary.
Moncada is a perfect fit for what the Mariners need if you ignore the salary.
You cannot ignore a salary of $24 million in 2024.
You can add prospects and have the White Sox pay a large part of it. You can absolutely do that. That’s what the Red Sox did with Sale.
Moncada is a perfect fit for the Mariners he’s exactly what they need.
I am both intrigued, and terrified.
Check your medication
Would it be nice to have Cease? Sure. But I’d rather have another bat. Cmon Jerry!
I think it’s interesting that the reported Cease interest (by Nightengale) is being reported on so much, but the reported monitoring of Snell’s market (by Bowden) is barely being discussed and didn’t earn an MLBTR post.
Once Snell (well, Boras) demanded 9/270 everyone laughed at it and moved on from him.
Bowden reported the Snell stuff just two days ago, though. He tweeted something along the lines of how the M’s continue to show interest in him and are still monitoring his market.
Just does not make sense. Cease is talented and his salary for 2024 ($8 million) is not bad at all but THE MARINERS NEED HITTING!! They need a 2B and/or a 3B!!!! Spend the money or make a trade for that need. Keep the young, contract controllable, arms and try and get Polanco in Minnesota or Paredes in Tampa amongst others. Yes, try and get them without trading Miller and Woo. Trade DeSclafani to the Twins and pay them for a chunk of his 2024 contract to get Polanco and maybe broaden the deal on both sides and try and get Kepler as well. That is where the cash money should go that you have left.
Moncada and Cease both
They don’t need a 3rd basemen who makes $24 million a year, averages at best 15 home runs a year, and is often injured.
The money can be worked out. A 3b switch hitter with huge upside who can also play 2b is a perfect fit for the Mariners.
What huge upside? Moncada has one outlier season coupled with a whole buncha meh
He has 2 really good seasons. He’s averaged 3 wins per 600 at bats in his career.
What’s the other “really good year?” 2021? You wanna sell that?
Look it up dude. He’s had a 5.5 win season and a 4 win season. And he’s not particularly old. He’s on average a 3 win player.
Don’t look at salary. That can be paid down by the WS. Would Moncada be an upgrade to what Seattle currently plays at 3B? Of course he would be.
This is ALL that needs to be said, it’s a fine point. But I believe that going out of their way to make a move for the guy, who would need to have probably half or more of that salary worked out to get him here, to HOPE he STAYS HEALTHY AND performs at a rate he has been unable to reach since 2021; I’m arguing that it makes little sense.
But he’ll need 4 seasons to get the next 600 at bats.
FanGraphs projects Yoan Moncada with 2024 WAR and wRC+ of 2.3 and 102 in 143 games while projecting Seattle third baseman Luis Urias with 2024 WAR and wRC+ of 2.0 and 104 in 110 games.
Steamer 600 projections give Urias the edge in 2024 WAR, 2.5 to 2.2.
The 28-year-old Moncada has $30 million remaining on his contract while the 26-year-old Urias has settled for a 2024 salary of $5 million in his penultimate year of team control.
It’s not an either or situation. You need more infielders than there are starting spots. Moncada and I believe Urias can both also play 2b where the Mariners have question marks. And frankly I think Moncada is the better player of the 2 he has a higher upside. I don’t really agree with those projections.
Check your medication
(@blackpink in the area)
I also feel that we need one more back end of the bullpen reliever. We have never replaced Sewald.
Yeah, I don’t think trading assets for a starting pitcher makes much sense; however, I’m fully on board with signing Snell and then using some assets to acquire a 3B like Paredes. I prefer that option to just signing Chapman or something.
Hey, I doubt it! Seems like Chicago is just putting that rumor out there to try and drum up a bigger return from Baltimore. It just doesn’t make sense for the Mariners, they have younger, cheaper arms under contract for longer, and they’re just about as good as Cease. Now, if the White Sox wanted some prospects for Jimenez or Robert, then maybe it’ll work out.
White Sox could attach Eloy with Cease to drop the asking price, taking Eloy. I know the white Sox have been trying to trade him for a while. Just speculation on my part since this seems like a weird rumor for the Mariners.
Mariners don’t need Jiminez. They could use Moncada though. He’s a perfect fit.
Instead of just repeating yourself, please explain why he is a perfect fit.. Big M’s fan and maybe I am missing something.
Yeah the thought of the Mariners taking on even half of Moncadas $49 million remaining is rather out there
*$30 million with buyout in 2025….still exorbitant for a bat that’s steadily declined for the last 4 years
It’s clear as day why he’s a perfect fit. Mariners need a 3b. They need upside. Moncada might repeat his 2023 but he might have a 5 win season who knows. Worth the risk since they need a 3b.
It’s clear as day that you have a different idea of Moncadas perceived value than the rest of the world. Overpaid and underwhelming. Again, he had one good season and it was in a juice ball year.
Again you are wrong he has had a 4 win season and a 5.5 win season. He’s averaged 3 wins per 600 at bats in his career. That’s a good player. Not amazing but he wouldn’t cost an amazing price even with the White Sox paying a lot of salary.
Yeah for that amount, they could just sign Turner for the year and save some money.
A 4 win season and a 5.5 win season…. And 12.0 total wins in 8 years as a major leaguer. Which means:
The other 5+ years=2.5 WAR
You really think teams are going to jump at eating a portion of his $24 mil avenue because he’s had 1/4 good seasons? I really think you’re grasping for straws but knock yourself out. White Sox fan?
What amount? The White Sox would pay salary I have said that over and over. Stop acting like they couldn’t do that.
8 years? He barely played in 2016 and 2017. Why bend the truth to win a meaningless argument on the internet???
No I’m saying, even taking on a portion of that juggernaut salary to acquire a “we hope he’ll get back to 2019 or maybe 2021 form” guy just seems like a big reach.
He’s not owed 49 million get your facts straight. Good gosh.
That’s why I specifically put “the other 5+ years.” How about we make it 4+ years? Now his ration
of good seasons is 1/3. Does that REALLY make him a more attractive trade candidate?
Did you see me fix that?
Why go out of your way to stretch the truth to try to “win” an online argument?
I’m not looking to win anything; I’m telling you, I think you’re absolutely wrong to believe that moncada is an attractive trade candidate for the mariners. Thats all.
He’s a 3 win player over 600 at bats in his career.
Who is the Mariners starting 3b currently?
Hey its ok. Maybe the Mariners should just stay put. 1 playoff appearance in 20 years that’s totally normal.
You can ignore all the negatives you want. Thats your choice. I disagree with you wholeheartedly
Oh boy. You’re entering personal attack territory because I made some decent points. You’re very combative. Time to bow out, happy Sunday
Sheesh.
Decent points?
You claimed Moncada only had 1 good season that was false.
You said he’s owed 49 million that was false.
You don’t seem to understand Moncada at all.
The Mariners need 3b help.
I’d way rather roll with Urias, Josh Rojas, and Ryan Bliss to cover the 2B/3B situation than pony up Miller and two first rounders for the privilege of rolling the dice on Moncada’s health.
You get Cease too fella. Did you miss that part?
Obviously we get Cease too. What’s the point, though? The rotation’s already a strength. Cease is good, but you only have him for two years. If the Mariners were going all-in right now, I could see the appeal, but this has been an offseason of cost cutting for Seattle. Why would they trade away years of control on Miller, two first rounders, and a mid-range prospect in Clase, for two years of Cease and Moncada, who isn’t even a good bet to be an upgrade? Makes no sense, unless you’re a White Sox fan fantasizing about fleecing other teams as you gut your roster.
If you don’t get it great.
Why would the Mariners sell at the deadline last year when they were a contending team?
Mariners and Orioles fans are the most complacent fans around. It’s almost like you expect to lose.
What’s your point? The White Sox have made 11 playoff appearances in 123 seasons. That’s no typo.
Over the past two seasons Yoan Moncada posted 2.1 fWAR on 196 games.
Over the same period, projected Seattle third baseman Luis Urias posted 2.2 fWAR in 171 games.
Over the same period projected Seattle second baseman Josh Rojas posted 3.7 fWAR in 230 games.
Even without his prohibitive salary, the Mariners would not need Moncada.
@Sodo and muskie- It’s pretty obvious blackpink is aiming for 2024 MLBTR troll of the year. I’m not going to bother replying to him anymore. He must be Moncada’s agent–or his analysis is just terrible.
Sox are going to want a lot more than that. Their asking price has been sky high all off-season and with good reason, they don’t have to trade him. If I’m the Sox I keep doing what they are doing. Let everyone know you are willing to listen but you are going to have to present a crazy offer.
They do have to trade him bc they said they were before the season starts. And even if he pitches at an allstar level – his value will still decline bc his shelf life is shrinking. Not saying there won’t be a desperate buyer but is it worth running the risk ? Take 4 players before the season starts
Sea is a real player. Their GM loves to trade too. Baltimore better take notice and make the move or they will grade out as an F for the offseason
His value doesn’t automatically decrease. If he pitches better or similar to last year then white Sox are in a great position to help their meh farm system. Its risky, but sometimes you have to take a risk at the end of the day.
Any time you talk trades and the Mariners you know that there is a good chance of something happening! We are talking about trader Jerry!
They rarely leak ahead of time. Like the Suarez trade. No rumors. This is the White Sox trying to create a bidding war.
Can we be honest here. Other than Teo and Wong last year when has Mariners Rumor been leaked other than minutes before it was finalized? Can’t remember any since Jerry has been in house.
Trade Woo and Ford and a lottery pick for Cease and then sign Soler to play LF and the off-season would be a success in my opinion
Ford is already a free agent. Mariners don’t control him.
Harry Ford
Mariners need hitters. Specifically 3B and 2B, shoot even OF. Trading prospects for a luxury SP isn’t the right move imo
Trade Woo , Dylan Moore, Trammell, DeLoach or Clase, Berroa for Cease and Moncada + some $$$
Lol. Sox have turned down a dozen Bette offers than that
Soler cannot play defense he is horrible out there -we have a DH. We need a starting 2B or 3B. There are a lot of options out there for them. I wish they would deal with Baltimore -something like Woo , Moore and an outfielder for Hays and Westburg.
My Ms need a BAT not another SP!!
Miller and Woo have always been projected to be mid rotation SP, but many here act like theyre aces in waiting. Maybe, but nothing in their projections or performance has shown that. I’m sure its why they havent received a productive bat back for either, and why they can sacrifice one for a likely upgrade to cease.
If the Sox agree with you, there is no way they’ll accept either as a center piece regardless of their cost control probably because other than one or both of them, there is nothing more for Seattle to add to make the package interesting for the Sox……….and that’s based on what the Sox have been trying to extract from other teams interested that can offer much better packages with the Orioles at the top of the list.
USA Today must be pleased that baseball writer Bob Nightengale generated hits to its website.
Talking about what the Mariners might do has certainly been more interesting than what the Mariners have actually done this offseason.
The Seattle offseason has been anything but dull.
Despite cutting payroll, the Mariners have replaced Mike Ford with Mitch Garver, Jarred Kelenic with Luke Raley, Eugenio Suarez with Luis Urias, Teoscar Hernandez with Mitch Haniger, Marco Gonzales with Anthony DeSclafani and Isaiah Campbell with Carlos Vargas.
The Mariners accomplished that while trading only one prospect (Campell) while adding pitchers Jackson Kowar and prospect Cole Phillips.
Floundering pitchers have flocked to Seattle after seeing the restorative results of the Mariner pitching lab.
The Mariners, who won 88 games last year with a 91-71 Pythagorean record, may not have made major improvements but their offseason has been fascinating.
Fascinating? Really?
What restorative results are you referring to as far as pitching that would make floundering pitchers flock to Seattle….Castillo, the Ace was an Ace in Cincy…..he hasn’t changes since he came over and the two guys mentioned in this article are being referred to as middle rotational starters at best……
Paul Sewald tops the list that includes Justin Topa, Tayler Saucedo, Matt Brash, Gabe Speier and Trent Thornton,
The Mariners have no problem attracting pitchers looking to
improve:
mlb.com/mariners/roster/transactions
Not to mention the development of Gilbert, Kirby, Miller, Woo…
M’s- 3B Noelvi, 2B India,RF Benson
Sox- SP Woo, 2B Cole Young, OF Lazaro Montes
Red- SP Cease, 1B France, CF Jonaton Clase
Mariners lineup
Ss jp
Cf Julio
Dh Garver
C Cal Raleigh
Lf Haniger
1B Raley
Rf Benson
2B India
3B Noelvi
You lose every trade proposal for India going to Seattle. That bat (and that is all he is as player no defense) will disappear quicker than a Criss Angel act in vegas at Tmobile.
This can’t be helping Cease’s get-ready-for-baseball preps mindset.
Twins need some of Seattle’s or Miami’s young starters. Make a trade happen already or we’re not gonna have enough pitching to even contend in our pathetic al central,:(
Like every team in that division.
At least the Tigers and Royals have added some pitching…
White Sox also got pitching as well. Btw most of the Sox’s top prospects are pitching.Twins or the Tigers have the highest odds winning the AL Central.
Maybe Seattle will fall for that fleecing of prospects for a number 3-4 starter in your rotation.
I am glad the Orioles didn’t fall for it.
This makes no sense.
Not that this would happen but – Trade with Miami : Logan Gilbert and Dylan Moore for Edward Cabrera and Luis Arraez ?
Why? They just gave up Robbie Ray… I don’t get the Mariners.
Because Robby Ray cant pitch 75% of this year and Cease can. Because Mariners were not convinced Ray would be that good in 25&26. Because Cease has a higher upside and will be cheaper the next two years than the 75M owed Ray the next 3 years….
I also suspect it wouldn’t be a straight up trade, Dipoto is looking for an infielder too.
The Mariners took it upon themselves by signing Ray.
Robbie Ray is not available until August at least this year and he was never going to win back favor with M’s fans after his late season/postseason implosion from 2022.
Read with skepticism as soon as Bob Nightegale is mentioned. He’s a shill for White Sox management.
The Sox will hold him. If he pitches well, they get a hell of a good deal from a contender at the deadline. If he blows his elbow out before then, oh well. Sucks for cease or maybe not if all goes well……
M’s get Cease and flip him to Cincinnati for Noelvi Marte or one of the young bats with MLB experience and a top pitching prospect, plus cash.
Then they sign Blake Snell on a deal that pushes the big money out into the future.
Dreaming, of course.
No way they do Blake snell without giving up Castillo and his 22 million per year.
The longevity of Snell would also could push them out of extensions for Gilbert Kirby.
Now if money wasn’t a concern things could be different
What we know..
1. Sox are not good, with a weak farm
2. Mariners need to make playoffs these next 2-4years with this core.
3.Mariners have a great farm in low minors but that’s not what many teams are in interested in trading for yet ( per Justin holllander gm)
4. Mariners are under major budget constraints
5. Sox will trade Cease, he will be traded by trade deadline to rebuild minors
6. Woo was great as a 23 yr old with limited innings in minors and will be under major innings limits this year AND maybe gets a slow inning buildup at AAA
I would think the ideal scenario for the Mariners is to keep the starting 5 until after trading for Cease
So they would have 6
Castillo Cease Dilbert Kirby Miller woo.
Then they will trade either Castillo ( budget) or Woo(innings limits)
Sox
Cease
Ms
Sp Emerson Hancock
Sp/RP Prelander Berroa
C Harry Ford ( Raliegh 4 more years)
Rf Lazaro montes (wildcard)
The mariners then can take any pitcher that orioles want off the big 6 and trade for
Castillo for Kjerstad+ Mayo
Or 3B Noelvi Marte
Or 3B Jose Ramirez
Basically shedding more salary by sacrificing low minors talent that’s not in position to help this core. Creating a more complete younger ,faster, and cheaper team
They need to get cheaper to offer contracts to Kirby Gilbert and Miller
If they keep
Castillo
Cease
Gilbert
Kirby
Miller
Woo would be the odd man out due to inning limits. He could be in the deal or flipped or groomed in the minors more to replace Castillo later.
This is just a paid advertisement. Doesn’t make any sense for Seattle to trade young, major league proven and controllable sp for same thing with less control. If Cease was a Mariner there is good chance he doesn’t even win a spot in the rotation.
The ONLY player we should go after on the Sox is Robert. Trade Woo and some prospects and put Robert in right field
I understand they would want Woo or Miller, but for the Sox they should be going after a package like:
Cease
for
Colt Emerson
Felnin Celesten
Jonaton Clase
Tai Peete
Seattle should trade
Ty France and few prospects for him and go with a 6 man rotation