In a recent mailbag, Tim Britton and Will Sammon of The Athletic fielded questions about the Mets and what remains of the offseason. They report that the club isn’t looking to add to their rotation any further this winter, except perhaps a depth move. They may make an addition at designated hitter, but don’t consider that essential.
The club came into the winter with lots of work to do in addressing the rotation. Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander had been traded prior to the trade deadline in the summer and then Carlos Carrasco became a free agent at season’s end. Shortly thereafter, it was reported that David Peterson underwent hip surgery with the recovery set to last beyond the start of the season. All of that left the club with Kodai Senga and José Quintana in two spots, with depth pieces like Tylor Megill, Joey Lucchesi and José Butto available as well.
But since then, the club has bolstered that group by signing Sean Manaea and Luis Severino, as well as acquiring Adrian Houser from the Brewers. That currently leaves them with a front five of Senga, Quintana, Manaea, Severino and Houser. Each of Megill, Lucchesi and Butto are still optionable, which will likely have them starting in Triple-A until an injury creates a need at the big league level. Peterson also has an option and can be in Triple-A if there’s no room for him in the majors when he’s healthy. It seems the club will go into the season with that as the depth chart, though a minor league signing or waiver claim could still factor in at some point.
The long run is a bit of a different story. Each of Quintana, Severino and Houser are impending free agents. Manaea signed a two-year deal but can opt out after 2024. Senga has four years left on his deal but has an opt-out after 2025, provided he logs at least 400 innings from 2023 to 2025. That gives the Mets very little long-term certainty their rotation.
They do have some prospects who could perhaps enter the picture in the near future, with Mike Vasil, Dominic Hamel, Christian Scott, Blade Tidwell and Tyler Stuart some of the notable prospects that reached at least as high as Double-A in 2023. But per Britton and Sammon, the Mets “are aware that their prospect pool leans toward mid-rotation or back-end starters, and thus that a significant external addition to their rotation sometime in the next two years is necessary.”
Assuming the Mets are shopping for a front line starter next winter, they should have some options. Corbin Burnes, Max Fried, Shane Bieber and Walker Buehler currently look to be some of the most exciting names in the free agent class of 2024-25. In terms of veterans, Zack Wheeler, Nathan Eovaldi and Scherzer will be in there as well, with Verlander perhaps joining them depending on the outcome of his vesting option. Robbie Ray can opt out of his deal after the upcoming campaign. Pitchers like Jack Flaherty, Frankie Montas or Severino might have bounceback years and raise their stocks, and the same goes for pitchers with options like Lucas Giolito or Manaea. So much can happen in a year to change a club’s plans but the Mets should be able to find something to their liking, especially with their willingness to spend money.
Turning to the designated hitter situation, the Mets could have some internal options there. The recent signing of Harrison Bader to join Brandon Nimmo in the outfield leaves one spot open on the grass. Starling Marte is the most logical person to line up next to those two, but he’s now 35 and is coming off a frustrating season. He missed almost half the year due to migraines and groin issues, hitting just .248/.301/.324 when in the lineup. Perhaps the Mets will look to get him some semi-rest days via the DH slot. If so, that would leave some outfield playing time for Tyrone Taylor or DJ Stewart. The latter would also be a DH candidate since he’s considered a poor fielder. Mark Vientos will be battling Brett Baty and Joey Wendle for playing time at third but Vientos is also considered weak on defense and could find himself in the DH mix if he hits well enough. Baty hasn’t been graded well for his third base defense in his major league career, for that matter.
That gives the Mets plenty of internal candidates to fill the DH slot, but it’s also possible to see room for an addition. Each of Baty, Vientos and Stewart are still optionable and could find themselves in Triple-A, depending on how things go. That gives the club a path to perhaps bring in a bat. Some of the DH types available in free agency include J.D. Martinez, Joc Pederson, Rhys Hoskins, Jorge Soler, Brandon Belt and Justin Turner. The Mets have previously been connected to Turner and Martinez in rumors this offseason. Turner would arguably be the best fit on the roster since his ability to play some infield means he wouldn’t be strictly limited to a DH role and could allow the club to cycle Marte or anyone else in there. Since Turner is 39 years old, he will also be limited to a short-term deal which will appeal to the Mets, given the way they’ve been operating this winter.
Despite the club’s apparent transition year in 2024, their past spending still has their competitive balance tax figure over the fourth and highest threshold of $297MM. Roster Resource pegs their CBT figure at $321MM right now. As a third-time payor at that level, the Mets will be facing a 110% tax on any further spending. The tax bill won’t be calculated until season’s end, so midseason deals could drop them down, but it seems inevitable that they will be facing another steep bill in the fall. They have shown little hesitation about spending money under owner Steve Cohen but it remains to be seen if they will add another contract to the books when they could give those DH at-bats to internal options.
gojira15
I expected this article to just say, “There aren’t any.”
And that would be it.
Bart Harley Jarvis
Or one bullet point , ‘Questionable Choices’.
Susannah
Technically, not signing any high priced free agent is a plan in itself.
KennyF’nPowers
If getting under the Luxury Tax threshold by Season’s end isn’t Stearns goal then what he’s doing with this year’s FA signings is foolish. If we get under it by Season’s end and go into ‘25 as 1st time offenders it opens the Mets up to spending in next year’s FA market. So if they’re out of it by early July expect every expiring contract (Quintana, Severino, Bader, Houser, etc.) to be moved. Even Pete. Then you’ll see all those about ready prospects (Gilbert, Acuna, Vasil, Scott, etc.) coming up to see what they have. If that’s not Stearns plan the Mets will be 3rd time Luxury Tax offenders and sign cheap FA’s again in ‘25.
flyingblindsquirrel
That would be great. I’ve been saying they would be looking to get out from under the CBT in ’25. Paying 110%, or even one of the lower tiers, and consistently lower draft picks is not sustainable so they’re going to need to reset at some point. Not sure this year is realistic, especially if they stay close to the third WC spot.
KennyF’nPowers
If they don’t get under at the end of this year then no FA signings next year. It’ll be our 3 year over the Luxury Tax with severe penalties. Stearns can’t afford to go 4 years over the Luxury Tax.
Slow day at work
@KennyF’nPowers they can’t get under in ’24, but they can do so in ’25 and still have about $80M to spend while still staying under the CBT threshold.
Then they can again overspend in ’26
geofft
They can’t possibly get under this year when they have $145 million in dead money for the players they traded. They are almost certain to be third time offenders.
Big whiffa
Lots of chillin and celebrating last off seasons championship still !
New York Mets – 2023 offseason champs !
Mac Attack
Or that The Athletic is usually wrong and their inside info sucks
TrumboRedux
Why is Justin Turner in the pic for this article?
YankeesBleacherCreature
Clickbait. Look at his dreamy eyes!
TrumboRedux
Dang…I had to zoom in a little, but now I see! Thanks YBC for clearing that one up for me!
VonPurpleHayes
I took your advice, but now I fell under his spell.
FletcherFan69
I don’t know by who that is
FletcherFan69
Justin Turner I mean. Who is he?
TrumboRedux
He is like David Fletcher, except a little younger and smaller. And redder.
TrumboRedux
** lol older not younger. And bigger not smaller. I am so backwards today..smh.
FletcherFan69
I don’t know who David fletcher is
TrumboRedux
He was a guy that was once beloved by Halo fans, but the org gave him a raw deal and sent him packing. He now travels the world in search of meaning.
cpdpoet
Rumour has it, he just filed a copyright for the name Caine and Caine Productions to record his travels…..
No mention of the term “pebble”
richardc
You took the bait Trumbo…That’d be pretty bad if FletcherFan didn’t know who David Fletcher was?! lol
I did laugh when you said “redder,” though. Haha
TrumboRedux
I know I was just trying to joke back with him hah. He hasn’t been the same since his namesake was shipped off.
10centBeerNight
NYM front office doesn’t leak. They will add pen arms. They should let Baty and Vientos play. Can fill up a notebook with solid players who struggled in first 250 or so at bats. Show some patience and they will be rewarded.
raisinsss
Vientos is OPSing like .950 in AAA and 1.000 last year.
He has nothing left to prove at that level.
THIS is the year to get him regular ABs. Also need to see if 2023 Stewart is for real, and about Baty.
Signing a DH without an accompanying trade (for sp, hopefully) would not be a good idea.
geofft
Agreed that he has nothing left to prove (or learn?) at AAA. But the rest of your post overstatement/overreaction. You (like many fans) assume that he is either hit or miss, and that the only way to learn which is by playing him every day. Absolutely not the case. Lots of players play bench roles and semi-regular playing time for two or three years before we find out what they really are. Vientos will get more playing time than last year, and they will learn more about him with or without signing another DH.
raisinsss
You’ll have to quote the specific parts of my post where you found:
“ You (like many fans) assume that he is either hit or miss, and that the only way to learn which is by playing him every day. ”
Thanks!
geofft
“THIS is the year to get him regular ABs. Also need to see if 2023 Stewart is for real, and about Baty.”
The notion that it has to be regular ABs, and it has to be THIS year is what I am dusputing.
raisinsss
Of course it could be never. Or next year.
As a self-billed “transition” year, it’s safe to assume that figuring out who positions will be transitioned to, to some extent, is on the to do list
Joel P
Not too impressed with the Mets offseason. I understand the desire to scale things back a bit but they still spent a decent amount of money and the team doesn’t appear to be competitive.
As a Cardinals fan I saw a lot of Bader. I like him a lot. But 10.5 million? He’s been hurt. He’s always hurt. Severino was terrible last year. Manaea was decent but nothing special.
Ma4170
I actually see Severino bouncing back closer to 2022 level (otherwise, that rotation is a disaster). I’m more surprised they haven’t built a stronger BP.
raisinsss
Milwaukee had something like the 5th highest RP WAR last year. Can you name two pitchers in their bullpen?
YankeesBleacherCreature
Cohen pushed all of his chips last season and lost. He acknowledged the sunk cost and decisively and quickly pivoted. These are exactly the contracts they should be signing feigning competiveness to keep selling tickets. Once they have the dead money off payroll and a few contracts run out, I fully expect him to reload again.
Joel P
I hear you Yankees I just don’t like these moved they have made. Seems like a waste of money.
YankeesBleacherCreature
They’re all rebound candidates. One of them should pan out and have value at the deadline if that’s the route they choose. Money isn’t the issue; it’s about restocking the farm.
Joel P
Yeah I just think there might have been better ways to restock the farm. Heck you can basically buy prospects in some kind of a deal. I like Bader a lot but 10.5 million is crazy.
YankeesBleacherCreature
As a three-year owner, they can’t tank to get a better draft position. The fans would call for his head after enduring the previous ownership. Being in the third CBT tier, they shouldn’t take on bad contracts tied with prospects either. If they do nothing, they’ll become either the Angels or Rockies.
Joel P
I feel like you either need to compete or plan for next year. And the Mets aren’t competing with their current roster in that division. It’s not that serious when you have money you can spend it I just don’t like their offseason much.
raisinsss
They literally did buy prospects in the verlander, Escobar, and Scherzer deals.
Most of that money is still on the books this year.
They also took on salary for houser and Taylor.
CleaverGreene
Take up the issue with the MLBTR FA predictions. They had him at more.$.
Mikenmn
This is right. Cohen had a good idea–use financial leverage to put a high quality team on the field, one that would compete in the playoffs, and then you have ace-level starters to run to the WS. The late sell-off was a guy who knew it didn’t work and saved quite a bit of money with those trades. He has the resources for staying power, and agree, he’ll do it again. Recent signings are about putting a watchable team on the field.
geofft
@ Mikenmn Cohen actually paid or is still paying close to 100% of almost every player he traded. A lot of that money is still on this year’s payroll. So he did not save any money with those trads. What he did do was get back higher value prospects in those trades in exchange for paying those salaries. Whether or not that will pay off remains to be seen.
jimmyz
If I bought a baseball team and had every intention of owning it for a couple decades I would take a huge swing for a title right away then reset and build the organization up sustainably if it didn’t work too. Why not?
mahalkita
This will be a 100 loss team. After the deadline moves the downward spiral will be in full effect. I expect the Mets to move 5 or 6 players (Alonso, McNeil, Quinatana, Diaz etc.,) for prospects in July.
Ma4170
I’ll take the under on that bet!
brooklyn62
Mets make WC in 2024! You heard it here first. Take that to the bank. Under the radar moves will payoff.
Benjamin101677
Anyone who thinks the Mets can win in 2024 should bet huge on it as the odds frkm
Realistic people are against them winning
Ma4170
I just don’t think they’ll lose 100. I could see an outside shot at WC since mid 80s could get it done.
A'sfaninLondonUK
@10cent
Agree with the need for patience for Mets fans. Would suggest Mr Cohen had as much patience as a three year old last season…
Thus wonder where these points will meet…
FanOfTheUmpires
Bader signing, slight chance of Hall of Fame track.
TrumboRedux
We need something juicy. The hot stove is starting to feel like listening to “Lloyd George” on loop.
Liberalsteve
Sign Bauer and Hader, and they are a top 5 team
TrumboRedux
Jack Bauer was recently dispatched to the Middle East. He won’t be back for a while.
This one belongs to the Reds
Wasn’t he number 24? That’s retired anyway.
raisinsss
Bauer was pretty bad without sticky stuff. No.
NoPlanB
The Mets need to make up their….excuse me….Cohen needs to make up his mind what his club is going to be. Are they going to rebuild or are they going to be the Death Star? If I were him, I’d be loading up on salaries and making another run. Who cares what happened last year. Damn the torpedoes!
CardsFan57
Didn’t they/he say 2024 is a rebuilding year? Yes they are making moves. That just proves they/he are willing to completely tank in 2024. He tried damn the torpedoes, full speed ahead way. It didn’t work. Now he’s trying a more patient approach. He may also be bringing in people who can be flipped for more prospects at the deadline.
Ma4170
To be fair they were the highest bidder on Yamamoto until the dodgers matched
CardsFan57
I meant to type they are not willing to completely tank the season. They also said Yamamoto was a long term investment.
Ma4170
Absolutely… i just meant he was still willing to spend big money on the “right” player
geofft
@ Frank_TananaDaquri you’re missing an important issue here. Spending all that money has resulted in numerous penalties that interfere with building up the farm system: Their first pick gets lowered ten places; they lose a million dollars in international free agent pool money; they give up additional draft compensation when they sign a player with a QO attached to him; the receive less draft compensation in return when they lose a QO player to another team.
Put simply, a team cannot live above the tax threshold continually and expect to maintain long term success.
10centBeerNight
NYM fans in general here seem to underestimate just how much talent they have half a season away in farm. Wise not to block them with a pretty lackluster FA class.
Benjamin101677
MLB experts must have the same issues as nobody has the Mets as a deep farm system or deep club.
geofft
@ 10centBeerNight On this site, sometimes. But NY Mets fans and blog sites across the net in general are overestimating how much talent they have and how close it is. I think you also underestimate just how big the gap is between AAA and the majors, how many players take two or three years to bridge that gap and become starters/regulars, how many fall short of expectations and never become regulars or just turn out to be mediocre.
Just who, exactly do you believe is a big talent and is close to ready for a big league starting job?
raisinsss
Coincidentally, a certain event takes place about half a season away.
THEY LIVE!!!
Joc Pederson, Kevin Pillar, Trevor Bauer, and Jeffrey Epstein if he’ll come out of seclusion.
RobM
Seemingly pedestrian signings can sometimes add up to overall net gains. While I don’t see 2024 as their year, I do think they will be more competitive than expected.
Inside Out
That pitching staff is so bad. Makes the Royals look good. Attendance will be so low this year. What a crap organization
jvent
The Mets should sign Hoskins and Soler now to make up for the loss of power with trading Alonso, it might be an unpopular decision but in order to get good young pitching that’s the only player that they could trade to get what they need.
I would say trade Alonso, Quintana plus $20 mil to offset some $$ and a minor league SS since they got so many in trades this past trade deadline to the Cubs for Justin Steele, Ben Brown and Wisdom. Steele would be he Mets Ace or co-ace with Senga. Trade Marte for whatever ? Sign Woodruff 2-3 year deal since he won’t pitch in 2024.
2024 Rotation: Senga, Steele, Severino, Manaea and Houser/Brown, then next year sign Burnes. 2025 rotation. Burnes, Steele, Senga, Manaea and Brown/ Woodruff
Lineup: Nimmo LF, Lindor SS, Hoskins 1b, Soler RF, McNeil 2b, Wisdom DH, Alvarez C, Baty 3b and Bader CF.
@DaOldDerbyBastard
Pass
westcoastmetsfan
That lineup will not scare anyone.
Ma4170
I really think they should re-sign him. Too many
bring up his 217 BA this year, but it was a fluky 205 BABIP. He wasn’t below 260 in his other three full seasons. He leads the league in HR and RBI since he started playing, thats significant. And thats w citi field hurting his stats. They wont be able to replace his likely production for the next 4-5 years.
This one belongs to the Reds
They have plans. We have no clue what they are, but they have plans.
Simm
321m don’t buy what it use to.
Seaver rules
The Metsies will be competitive. Didn’t say a world beater or division winner but competitive. Expect Burnes and Woodruff to be on the staff next year and more speed on the base paths with Acuna and Jett. Looking forward to it.
Benjamin101677
The Mets have no back of the rotation and no middle relief. So 2-3 out of every 5 games will most likely be bad. Plus they have a division where 3 teams made the playoffs last year so they are going have tough teams
Ma4170
Actually they mostly have back of the rotation. Senga is really a 2 and everyone else a 4 or 5.
newpony13
Yeah because the Mets are definitely trading for Ronald Acuña…
Jerry Hairston Jr's Toupee
They got his brother in the Scherzer trade.
raisinsss
Be nice. He’s just a casual.
Kevin Michael Farrell
Well they are Phlipping Mo-Rons if they think their DH position isn’t essential. However it hasn’t seemed Essential for the last 2 off seasons or trade deadlines, so I shouldn’t be at all shocked by that statement!
I love Pete, and want him here for his career, but for his sake, TRADE him to somewhere that will get him protection in the lineup besides The Michelin Tire Man Vogelback. If he has someone legitimate batting behind him , he will get good pitches to hit! WHAT DONT THEY UNDERSATND IS ESSENTIAL ABOUT THAT?
CleaverGreene
He wants 30M a year. 30M dollar a year hitters don’t need protection, they are the protection.
Kevin Michael Farrell
Not even a little bit true. If you are the opposing team and you know you have Vogelback or Ruf or Dom Smith coming up after Pete and McCan or Narvaez`or Naquin (etc…)coming up after them, Are YOU gonna give Pete anything to hit? That’s a BIG FAT NO!
Bob Sacaman0
What about an extension for Pete as part of the off season plan?
Benjamin101677
The Mets missed the window when it would have benefited Alonso to resign with them. He is going to test the free agent market. No reason not too without an over pay.
I would all but bet that Alonso is with a new team in 2025
EasternLeagueVeteran
It is usually a good bet to have a player on your roster during a walk year like Alonso. As a Boras client, I am sure he is headed to free agency. So get the good year out of him.. Almost $65 M comes off the Cap hit for 2025 with no Scherzer, Verlander, Ottavino, Nido and McCann on the books. That should leave them plenty of money to sign free agents next off-season if some of the pitching kids from AAA/AA don’t develop, and they get nothing from the 3 headed prospect monster Baty/Mauricio/Vientos..
jwinker
Yes, where will the Lorax ultimately sign?
westcoastmetsfan
Stearn’s is leaving options to evaluate the baby Mets in Baty and Vientos. No sense signing a DH and block that from happening.
Same can be said for the fetus Mets in Gilbert, Williams and Acuna who we should see at some point in 2024.
From The pitching side, why sign premium FA that could block Vasil, Hamel, Scott, Tidwell and Stuart. We could see some of these at ML level at some point in 2024.
We need to evaluate all this prospects at the ML so we can address areas of need next off-season.
Seems like a very logical and strategic plan from my point of view.
Ma4170
Plus next offseason buehler burnes fried all available at 30 years old. Many SP have success 30+, with wheeler cole gausman bassitt gray all good recent examples, not to mention freaks like verlander and scherzer. They’ll likely try to sign one of those three as their ace.
geofft
@ westcoastmetsfan Sorry, but its borderline delusional to say that Williams is going to jump from single-A to the majors in under a year. Only monstrous, generational talents like Soto, R Acuna, Guerrerro, etc make that leap successfully. And no one regards him that highly except Mets fans who misread and misunderstand the prospect ratings.
Similarly, no evaluators regard the Mets pitching prospects as “premium”, just middle-to-back of rotation types. And there is simply no room in one season to get looks at all five of those guys. And BTW, four of them were also in AA last year, three have less than half a season there and will probably be opening up there, too.
raisinsss
Jett’s eta is only 2028 on fg 🙂
geofft
I’m guessing thats a typo and you meant to say 2025 (?).
And 2025 is not 2024. And it could be late in 2025, thus giving him the better part of a year in each of AA and AAA. That is reasonable.
That said, ETA is also barely or semi-relevant. It refers to his expected debut. Not the point at which he becomes a regular contributor.
raisinsss
fangraphs.com/players/jett-williams/sa3020134/stat…
But you can play the semantics game with someone else. Goodbye!
Ma4170
I could see a potential Sept callup for Williams. He did get the call to AA end of last year, so he’ll prob start there and if all goes well, AAA around mid-year. No guarantees, of course. I think in updated top 100s from BA and MLB he’ll be top 50 above Gilbert and Acuna.
Agree, their SP project to be number 3-4 type starters, and I’d expect maybe two to actually make it of that group going by percentages. I think Tidwell has the stuff to be a strong 3 though.
geofft
Its a possibility, but I think its reaching. Williams’ double-A assignment was for the last week of the season, and only after/because the single-A season ended a week earlier than AA. He was only in high-A for 36 games. If it were mid-season, he might not have been moved up so quickly. And when he got to AA, he did poorly. I’m not criticizing or condemning him. Just suggesting that it’ll take more work and time for him to get past AA than it did single-A.
He’ll certainly rise in the prospect rankings. But its hard to imagine that he’ll surpass Gilbert, who was already ranked 50ish and had a terrific AA season.
yeah, Tidwell seems like the big arm with the big stuff that could play as an ace. And he’s also got issues with control and consistency. Can he conquer those issue? Time will tell.
Ma4170
Not sure on Tidwell… that seems to fit the profile of a lot of high end sp prospects these days, and the ones that make it tend to get the BBs under control (no surprise there).
Idk, I think williams might do it. They could also promote him from AA if it’s to get time at end of year. His plate discipline and speed are top end, and both should play as he moves up. Love his swing, doesn’t try to do too much, short and quick to the ball. He’s the one I’m highest on. I know BA has him as the mets top ranked prospect now in their updated rankings. We’ll see on MLB.
geofft
Plate discipline is top end – typically. And yet, he struck out almost 40% of the time in AA. (10 times in 26 PAs) Its a tiny, invalid sample size. I’m not saying he won’t work through that. But as an undersized player in a league that averages 4 years older than him, he might be physically overmatched at first and need a little more time to adjust to this level.
Ma4170
Maybe so… i keep forgetting how young he is
Ma4170
Williams ended up as 30th overall in BA’s updated top 100, thats even a little higher than I anticipated. Wonder where he’ll end up on MLB’s.
UncommonSense
The Mets don’t deserve Turner
raisinsss
If you love him, set him free.
Only if he loves you will he return.
I think it’d be counterproductive to this off-season. And he’s just so old. Older than me, and those numbers are dwindling.
THEY LIVE!!!
Uncommonsense
Could not agree more that the Mets don’t deserve Justin Turner. The Dodgers should just sign him & trade Lux for a real shortstop & call it a season.
Seaver rules
There not signing a DH and they will never Trade Pete. 8 years $300 million.
JackStrawb
It’s always appreciated when in a single sentence someone tells you they will never write a post worth reading.
Mercenary.Freddie.Freeman
Justin Turner at his age is due to crater in production sooner than later. Not many hitters are productive 39 years old and older. He has had a nice career but it’s time to buyer beware.
JackStrawb
“…with depth pieces like Tylor Megill, Joey Lucchesi and José Butto available as well.”
—–When did we stop calling them “people” or “players”? That was better.