The Dodgers signed left-hander James Paxton to a one-year deal this week, though the financial details of the contract changed from the initial reporting. Per a report today from Fabian Ardaya and Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic, an unknown health issue led to a lesser guarantee, though it wasn’t serious enough to scuttle the deal completely.
As details of the agreement were initially trickling out last week, it was reported as an $11MM guarantee for the lefty. But Rosenthal reported this morning that the guarantee was actually just $7MM. It appears some sort of health concern popped up, which was enough to knock $4MM off the guarantee but not so serious as to cause the Dodgers to walk away. Paxton can still earn a total of $13MM via bonuses* as long as he makes the Opening Day roster and eventually makes at least 18 starts. Neither the club nor Paxton’s agent Scott Boras provided details for the report from The Athletic, citing HIPAA.
Health or the lack thereof has frequently been an issue for Paxton throughout his career. Now 35 and about to enter his 11th major league season, he has never reached 30 starts or 161 innings pitched in a big league campaign. He hardly pitched at all in the 2020-2022 period, with a left flexor strain keeping him to just five starts in the shortened 2020 season. Then Tommy John surgery wiped out most of the next two years, with a torn lat preventing him from returning late in 2022.
Last year saw some encouraging progress from those significant injury issues but it wasn’t totally smooth sailing. A hamstring strain in the spring pushed his season debut until May. He was able to stay healthy from there until September, finishing the season on the injured list due to right knee inflammation. His 19 starts and 96 innings pitched were more than he logged in the previous three years combined, but he also seemed to run out of gas. He had a 2.73 ERA through his first 10 starts but then a 6.98 mark in the final nine.
It seems he’s still not 100% but the Dodgers will take a shot on him regardless. He has a 3.69 ERA in his career, pairing a 26.3% strikeout rate with a 7.5% walk rate. The club is generally unafraid to bank on talented players even if they have injury concerns, having signed guys like Blake Treinen, Daniel Hudson, Jimmy Nelson, J.P. Feyereisen and Alex Reyes in recent years.
They are now set to go into 2024 with a rotation featuring plenty of talent but also a decent amount of uncertainty. Yoshinobu Yamamoto has loads of success in Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball but has no MLB track record yet. Walker Buehler missed all of last year recovering from Tommy John surgery. Tyler Glasnow has never topped 120 innings in a major league season due to his own injury history. Bobby Miller was good last year but still doesn’t have a full year of big league experience. Options like Emmet Sheehan, Michael Grove and Gavin Stone are similarly unproven. Paxton would have already come with concerns just based on his track record but those will only be enhanced now that he’s known to be dealing with some kind of ailment.
It’s also possible that the club could re-sign Clayton Kershaw, as it has in each of the past two offseasons. But he is also a question mark, having undergone shoulder surgery in November that will keep him out of action until midseason.
* Paxton can get a $2MM bonus either for being on the roster for the Dodgers’ season opener in South Korea against the Padres on March 20 or their domestic opener against the Cardinals on March 28. Otherwise, he can earn a $1MM bonus if added to the roster before April 15. Paxton will also earn a $600K bonus for making his sixth, eighth, tenth, 12th and 16th starts of the season, plus a $1MM bonus for reaching 18 starts. With $4MM in bonuses based on starts and the $2MM early-season roster bonus, he could add $6MM to his $7MM guarantee, bringing his total earnings for the year to $13MM.
Defer now and pay later.. the dodger way
Redundancy and redundancy?
mad1
What money is deferred?
She doesn’t know, she’s just another jealous hater.
Real original.
I was thinking bizarrely detached from reality, but this too.
Can you defer injuries? I get hurt now but push my IL stint out until after the all-star break.
Dodger Concessions have a deferment plan also. You can get a hot dog on opening day but don’t have to pay for it until Tuesday.
another comic genius
Penny pinching on
Paxton,
Overloading on Ohtani
One of these things is not like the other.
To go along with my Fat-And-Slow team, here is my Thin-And-Can’t-Seem-To-Put-On-Weight team:
SS Elly de la Cruz
P Tristan McKenzie
P Chris Sale
P James Paxton
P Walker Buehler
Walker Buehler on this list is laughable.
We have a lot of question marks about our starting pitching this season. A lot of things will have to go right.
Question marks indeed. But on the other hand they arguably have 8-9 starting pitchers (not counting minor league prospects who haven’t debuted yet) so maybe they’ll be fine if enough things go right. Last year every starter got hurt and it was pretty much an Everything That Could Go Wrong rotation.
@underdog
And they still won 100 games.
I think their depth this year will be far superior to what it was last year, when the same options were overwhelmed rookies pressed into action no one anticipated for them.
Weird take considering how awful the rotation was by the end of 2023. This is the best rotation of the Friedman era. Yamamoto-Glasnow is as good of a 1-2 punch as anybody.
amk1920,,,, better than Kershaw & Grienke were? Look at the arm issues and surgeries on this staff! Pretty far from a fearless, dominant one IMO. Rather rag arm, again my opinion.
Maybe another division title this year but NLCS Champs? World Series Champs? Guaranteed? Keep your fingers crossed.
l9y
“better than Kershaw & Grienke were? ”
Better than Kershaw and Greinke now, yes.
He didn’t say anything about best ever. And he said best rotation of the Freidman era, not best 1-2. Try and understand what you read before you comment.
“Guaranteed?”
No. Anyone who talks about a guaranteed championship doesn’t understand baseball. And YOU are the only one here talking about it.
filihok,,,,,, wow, you really just showed your self for the real troll you are! I have never seen anyone here or any other sites that tries harder than you to pick an argument, reply so arrogantly & in a bullying & childish way as you. Majority of respondents here enjoy conversing back & forth in a mature way.
That’s just not something you seem to be able to do. What an unfortunate way to live. Going forward, I for one now will not be reading or replying to any of your posts!
19ydodger: I guess you just have to hope that loading up on expensive players doesn’t lead to the kind of season the Mets and Padres had last year, causing them to dismantle their teams late last season and into the off-season. At least they – like the Dodgers- did everything they can do to help their team win. I’m kind of curious to see how well the Dodgers do in the PO this season with some very good and expensive players.
L9y
“Majority of respondents here enjoy conversing back & forth in a mature way.”
LOL
Imagine thinking this about the comments here
Amk…Are you joking? Yamamoto has never thrown a pitch in mlb and glasnow has never stayed healthy a full season in 8? Years in mlb…as good as anybody? Come on..They arent even the best 1,2 in thier own division lol
We don’t know how Yamamoto will adjust to MLB hitting
We don’t know if Kershaw/Buehler/Paxton will stay healthy
We don’t know if Bobby Miller will have a sophomore jinx
Glasnow hasn’t made more than 21 stars in his career and has injury concerns of his own.
Half of the rotation could be on the DL by June.
DDC
“Half of the rotation could be on the DL by June.”
Can say this about any team in baseball
And if it is the pitching will still be better than average.
Still lots of question marks with this rotation like:
Will Yamamoto transfer his success from NPB to MLB? Will he adjust from pitching once every 7 days to once every 5 days?
Can Glasnow stay healthy? Can Paxton stay healthy? Will Kershaw come back? Can Miller avoid a sophomore slump and pitch more than 120 innings?
And what in the world is going on with Walker Buehler?
Lots of talent, but also lots of question marks…
Fried/ Strider?
DDC
“A lot of things will have to go right.”
This team is about as sure of a lock for the post season as possible.
The offense should be better in 24 than 23
The pitching should be better in 24 than 23
They won 100 games last year
Making the postseason means nothing unless you win a world series.
We saw what a 100 wins got us last season.
DDC
“Making the postseason means nothing unless you win a world series.”
Love it when
losers in life insist on greatness.
@DarrenDreifortsContract Why bet on feeling bad, though?
The ’39 Yankees or 2001 Mariners wouldn’t have been better than a 65% bet to take a short series from another postseason team. Even if they managed 65% on the nose in every series, that would make them just 27.5% to win three consecutive postseason series and with that the World Series.
The silly length and formatting of MLB’s postseason is its attempt at the NFL’s grotesque ‘parity.’
Count on the advent of a 4th wildcard slot before 2030 as MLB pours more slop into the soup.
@DarrenDreifortsContract
Totally disagree.
October Madness as a postseason tournament is completely antithetical to the sport itself, rewarding tiny-sample randomness and fluky hot streaks after a six-month slog to get there.
I’d much rather have a team I can count on for great things over those six months, year after year after year, while earning a lottery ticket for the postseason…rather than limping along most years, even if in one of those my team gets hot enough to win a WS.
What 100 wins got us last year was a truly surprising season, given that ownership/management kept its powder dry AND the staff was a MASH unit by season’s end and the offense was unsustainably carried by two of the great individual seasons/players in LA Dodgers history.
The Dodgers have controlled what they can control for over a decade now.
Additional championships would’ve been great–full stop–but they’re just not the end-all, as in baseball, they’re not indicative, at all, of the year’s best team(s).
CSC
Baseball IS ENTERTAINMENT.
Watching a good team, that’s in contention every season, I find more entertaining than watching a team that was good a few years out of the decade
You can see that fans of those kinds of teams are largely here being super negative. They aren’t enjoying baseball.
It’s like the interest of Chappy’s tape in Iron Eagle. “A bunch of things must have gone wrong…”
@ddc
The username/comment combo here is rich, and I am here for it.
@DarrenDreifortsContract —It’s the other way around.
A lot of things will have to go worse than the median projection for these players, for things to go badly for the club.
Spending on Paxton instead of on a lesser pitcher with greater durability tells us the Dodgers are confident that the back of their rotation can given them an ERA no worse than 4.50-4.75 from the #6-8 slots, and few are as good as LAD when it comes to judgment regarding back end pitching.
Look at the 2022 Dodgers, for example. They used all of 3 pitchers who threw a total of just 12 innings, who had ERAs higher than 4.75. That’s absolutely extraordinary. They put stars and superstars on the field, but one of the keys to their success is how they keep bad players OFF the field. Even in 2023 they only let Syndergaard go 55 innings. Guys with ERAs and FIPs over 5.00 just don’t stick around long—contrast with the ostensibly contending Mets in 2023, who despite having half a dozen plausible alternatives in the 4.50-5.00 range let Carlos Carrasco pitch 90 innings with an ERA of 6.80.
Predictable, given their roster, that they’d incentivize Paxton to be healthy at the start of the season. What the Dodgers seem bent on is being good during the first half of 2024, then great as some superb pitchers round into form for the postseason.
That’s a wild salary structure. Can’t blame him for a great chance at a ring.
Great chance to make the playoffs, meh chance to win a ring.
ssc
“Great chance to make the playoffs, meh chance to win a ring.”
A team making the play9ffs has around a 12.5% chance of winning the world series
A 50% chance of winning the divisional round
A 50% chance of winning the championship round
A 50% chance of winning the World Series
Multiply those all together, you get (.5*.5*.5) 12.5%.
The Dodgers have been in the playoffs, what, 11 consecutive seasons?
Multiply 11 seasons by a 12.5% chance to win each season, and the Dodgers would be expected to have (11 * .125) 1.4 World Series wins.
They have 1
You can’t win .4 of a World Series.
There is nothing unusual about the Dodgers’ post series performance.
@fili
That math is overly simplistic. It ignores (1) that there will be favorites in postseason matchups, and (2) that the Dodgers were often seen as those favorites in their matchups. Even when the Dodgers were knocked out by teams that got hot at the right time, they still had better odds of winning.
It’s the reason Vegas has them at 18.2% to win it all in 2024, and not 3.33%.
Da
Fine, give them an 18% chance.
They’d be expected to win about 2. They won one.
Considering that WS wins are discreet events, it’s still a normal outcome.
@filihok Anyone who nitpicks math that was intended to be representative deserves an uppercut, not a comment. You’re too kind, compadre.
@strawb
Based on your other Dodger blue-colored comments, and your desire uppercut me, I already know I can’t have this conversation with you in good faith, but whatever, I’ll bite.
Anyway, representative of what? I shouldn’t have to explain how no two playoff teams are created equal, but his numbers were flawed. By his own admission, he was off by over 5%. Which sounds small and “nitpicky”, but with regards to odds of winning, 5% is massive. For example, 5% is what separates the Rangers from the Giants according to Vegas.
It’s become an article of faith among many fans that the playoffs are “nothing but a crapshoot,” which roughly translates to the outcomes being as random as coin-flips. They aren’t. Better regular season teams do actually succeed in the postseason more often. But to understand that requires knowing the difference between possible and likely, and this seems to be strangely uncommon knowledge among baseball fans.
Too bad playing in that area comes with it. I’d rather play in Pittsburgh, Cincinnati, Atlanta or even New York.
Probably why your name literally has “insane” in it.
Again, Lance Lynn set the bar by signing at $12MM. Even Paxton argues that if he’s healthy, he’s worth more than Lynn.
stymee
“Again, Lance Lynn set the bar by signing at $12MM. Even Paxton argues that if he’s healthy, he’s worth more than Lynn”
A few things
1) No one player really sets the market like that. If no one wants to pay Paxton this much, be won’t get her
2) A full season of Paxton is almost certainly better than Lynn. But so what? He doesn’t get paid based on what he’d do in a full season. He gets paid based on what teams think he will do
Shocker
Guy will be on the IL by May
He will have a 5.00 era and be on the IL by summer and contribute nothing as he has since going to the Yankees.
He will be on the IL before Spring Training ends…
Wishing guys end up on the iL can get you banned from this site so I’ve heard lol. Just wait til trumbo redux and blue baron and the gang see this.
Not wishing ill on Big Maple. He’s just made of glass…I was thrilled with the 24 pitches he threw for us a couple years back in his Ms return.
No one is wishing that he ends up on the IL.
It’s just going to happen.
BS
“Guy will be on the IL by May”
Who cares?
Not the Dodgers really. They acquired him to give them 100 or so innings and, potentially, be the 4th or 3rd playoff starter.
They shouldn’t really care if those innings are in April/Nay or July/August
James Paxton and health issues? Obviously a fake article, this guy is the model of consistency!
Health issues? Naaaaahh really? Who could’ve guessed? He’s been a bum since the Yankees picked him up. Maybe he’ll sign with the yankees? Some guys just don’t want to hang it up. Yankees still need a couple more .168 hitters and some more bum pitching and maybe they’ll achieve their goal of finishing below .500. Yankees stink.
Imagine both
1) posting these kind of middke-school level comments
And
2) thinking your IQ is 178
Paging David Dunning and Justin Kruger.
You’re replying lol that’s enough loser
Understood, troll
Muted
@filihok
¨middke¨ school?
Seems pretty middle schoolish to be spelling like that…
JCL
,Middle school logic is trying to equate a typo with flawed thinking.
Health issue?…Not the “Iron Horse”, James Paxton?..Say it ain’t so.
So much Dodger hate.
obviously they have nothing better to do
Where?
Haters gonna hate ! Sure, Dodgers got question marks but so does everybody else. Talking bout a team that won 100 games then added best player in world n to boot they sign best pitching prospect of this offseason. ‘A’ 4effort. Go Dodgers !
@hudler
Eh, all the teams have their haters. The Dodgers are a good team, so they’ll naturally attract hate for that, especially given the good fortunes (ex: Ohtani’s contract) they’ve received on top of their spending gambit.
The Giants have haters too, you know! They just happen to be mostly annoying Giants fans.
It shouldn’t be unexpected that smaller market teams dislike the Dodgers. I, for one, would love opportunity after opportunity to see my team be in the fray for all big free agents. To watch my team have to bank on buying out years of arbitration, to get a few extra years of control beyond that, for a top prospect who has never played at the Major League level while the Dodgers defer exponential amounts of salary for Ohtani just because they can. When you have 100+ million in spend/TV contract revenue than just about anyone else in the league don’t be surprised if your competitive advantage is frowned upon. A good World Series in any World Series the Dodgers and Yankees don’t win. I wish no success to the Dodgers in 2024 and beyond.
@TGH31
One small issue with your post:
The deferral structure in Ohtani’s contract has ZERO to do with the Dodgers’ ability to pay Ohtani that way, and EVERYTHING to do with the fact that Ohtani could afford to be paid that way, because of all the money he makes off-the-field.
Every team in the sport had the opportunity to pay Ohtani that way–and several actually also agreed to that very structure.
In the end, though, he chose the Dodgers, because that’s where he wants to play, in part because he also received assurances (and has every reason to believe) that the Dodgers would use their savings to continue to invest in their club–as opposed to so many of the sport’s skinflint owners, who are only looking to put cash in their pockets, at the expense of their teams’ actual ability to compete on the field.
But sure.
Your missing my point. Yes, Ohtani chose to be paid that way (not dodgers fault and it was smart to go that route) but its the fact that Dodgers are one of 8-10 teams across MLB that can afford to sign a high end, marquee free agent. The rest of the league has to rely on development of their farm system and the hopes that a gamble, to buy out a year or 2 of free agency, helps them gain a punchers chance at a title.
More contracts should be structured in this manner.
Why, and according to who?
Because and Champ!
Well then, what else do we need to know?
At this point, Red Sox ownership is just trolling their loyal fanbase. Pathetic.
By not signing a pitcher made of glass?
Hopefully Paxton earns all his incentives and has a good year
Wondering if walker isn’t ready or if all those dodgers AAA starters are really smoke and mirrors?
@ W steve
All signs point to him being ready. He probably could have even come back last year.
I guess we won’t really see until the season starts though.
He will definitely have his workload managed, even if he is 100% healthy.
@wvsteve
From what a good friend with contacts in the FO told me in October, the issue was less Buehler’s ability to perform in a way that would’ve allowed him to perhaps return for the 2023 postseason, and far more to do with the longer-than-expected recovery after his limited minor-league outings last year. The thought was that it wouldn’t really have been worth having him on the postseason roster, if he couldn’t recover as the rest of his fellow relievers would.
Because he’ll be on an innings limit, it seems reasonable to ease him in, if only so that a theoretically up-to-speed Buehler is throwing meaningful innings in September, as opposed to April/May.
And all of those young arms are what they’ll be–but they’ll definitely all get their looks in the big leagues this year, as something approximating a collective 6th starter. And remember: none of them–Bobby Miller included–were initially expected to be counted upon in 2023 when last season began, let alone perform essentially as the Dodgers’ best two starters by season’s end (which is what Miller and Pepiot were).
The Dodgers have a lot of healthy bank accounts. Healthy arms, not so much.
Paxton with a health concern? Stunned.
I figured it would’ve happened during a practice or start though. Why anyone lays this guy millions of dollars still is beyond me.
Clip – I think their rationale is they’re paying a $625K/start pitcher based on the 11 starts they feel they can reasonably expect to get from him. It’s a safe bet he will pitch well when he’s healthy, he certainly did for the Sox last year.
If he doesn’t reach 11 starts then they promote or acquire via trade.
It’s the Dodgers, they can afford to gamble $7M.
Yeah, that’s very true FPG, and he is good when healthy.
YC
“Why anyone lays this guy millions of dollars still is beyond me.”
Reminder, that says more about your lack of baseball understanding than about anything else
@yc
they lay down millions for pax because he is a lefty with a pulse, if he was a righty he would be in the booth by now
bb
“if he was a righty he would be in the booth by now”
Unknowledgeable (hot) taek
He was basically league average last season. Which means a LOT of guys were worse than him.
@filihok
it was more of a joke than a hot take, but lefty pitchers tend to get more chances in the mlb than righties because throwing left handed is rare on its own
bb
“lefty pitchers tend to get more chances in the mlb than righties because throwing left handed is rare on its own”
Sure
Kind of how I see it Brodie. It also seems the LAD, who seem to have no compunction regarding payroll, are one of the only teams that would sign a pitcher to this contract (especially the initial $11M) when he has thrown only 117 innings over the past three years. But, he can be decent in the rare instances he’s healthy, which he’s not very often.
Also, I hope you’re doing well Brodie. Good to see you on here! I wish your Cards the best this year. Hopefully they can turned it around this season.
@yc
the move doesn’t surprise me, and your right lad has the funds to gamble with a 7+ mil. if it works out and is healthy they have a solid #3 or even if it’s just a half season. all lad needs to do is be close to the top near the deadline. the way i see it that lineup is a bit scary and should carry them to the postseason with the staff the have now and make no more moves.
also i’m doing ok and i’m hoping for a turnaround but unfortunately i’m not to optimistic about this year. our starting staff is still pretty weak like last season and ollie is still the manager who is strictly a mange by the script kinda guy and when he has to make a decision not in the script he looks lost.
Based on the injured SPs on roster, seems like LA would crave a cheap durable arm; someone capable of 4-5 innings a start until mid season when a better option returns and he can be replaced/released (Eric Lauer)
td
They have like 7 minor league guys capable of doing that,
They need high end guys for the playoffs.
Expect the starters to miss a lot of time in the season with the rookies filling in to
1) keep,the rotation fresh for October
2) get the young guys’ feet wet
Dr Boras must have learned his lesson and not disputed the findings of his medically trained colleagues.
Myocarditis
Someone talk me off the ledge….I’m not feeling this starting rotation
Well yamamoto has never pitched in mlb..glasnow has never made it through a season without injury…walker bhueler is coming off major surgery and roberts is already saying maybe not ready for opening day…paxton…well read this article lol..and miller..hmm no real issues but relatively unproven…maybe not the best starting 5 around in terms of track record..
Pool – Look on the bright side, anybody who bets on any team EXCEPT the Dodgers to with the WS will be winning a lot more money, because the Dodgers likely won’t win despite being heavily favored.
So I’m all for it, let’ the Sportsbooks heavily favor the Dodgers.
Genuine question: Why do owners even consider paying guys like this bum millions of dollars? You’re paid to compete at the highest level and you should be on the field when you’re supposed to
An occasional injury or health issue is one thing but to never play a full season and constantly get new contracts is beyond my comprehension
The other thing is I’d really appreciate if you can stop posting articles of bums like Paxton. We expect to read and get information about people who actually can play a full season and compete at the MLB level. Participation trophies don’t count
Yanks – Genuine answer, because past injuries don’t guarantee future injuries.
Case in point: Rich “Blister Boy” Hill
He averaged just 23 innings from 2008-2015 and never pitched more than 57 innings during that 8 year period.
Then the next 8 year period, from Age 36-43, he averaged 113 innings including 4 years where he pitched over 130 innings.
Plenty of other examples like that. Always assuming nothing will ever change is a poor way to go through life.
You ever watch Seinfeld? Sometimes Elaine is up and George is down, other times Elaine is down and George is up.
@fever
I agree with the general premise of your comment, but “plenty of other examples like that” is a bit charitable.
It could be a very fine staff. Its just a lot o payola for “could be.”
stymee
Imagine how much more it would cost if they were surer things
Paxton….”Ole Reliable”.
The Dodger$ literally have one probably great pitcher, and he’s never thrown an MLB pitch. The team is totally overhyped.
Seems to me that they will be piggy backing a few guys. They have a good mix of starters and handedness but lots of injury concerns. They could start certain guys, like paxton against a team with alot of LHH and then after 4 or 5 innings bring in someone else who hasnt had many innings lately. I know it sounds weird but it would be a good way to keep innings in check and have a mass of highly talented pitchers going every 5 or 6 days
Arm amputation = $1 million less.
Rubber band installed in throwing arm (like Trevor Story = $2 million less.
Tis just a scratch!
Yet another Friedman reclamation project confirmed….
Is it me or just boras clients requirement is they have spent significant time on the IL
Going to try to recap the Dodgers rotation. Bear with me.
– Ohtani will not pitch
– Yamamoto has never pitched in the majors. An expensive question mark and he is undoubtedly their best starting pitching option in 2024.
– Glasnow has never made more than 21 starts in a season because of a series of injuries
– Buehler is returning from his 2nd TJ and only 3 of 52 pitchers that have had 2 have returned to start and have either an ERA under 4.00 or more than 19 starts.
– Paxton is already injured and had to take a cut in pay because of it.
– Miller is the sole returning pitcher that is not a major injury risk and he has only made 22 starts in his career
– Kershaw is injured and out until at least July if the Dodgers resign him
– Gonsolin and May will miss all of 2024.
– Urias is gone as a FA and likely will never play in MLB again after 2nd strike on domestic violence.
Did I miss anything?
I am guessing we will see a lot of Sheehan, Grove, and Stone in 2024. Maybe as much as 60 starts.
That sums it up alright. But I do feel good about Yamamoto.
Yup, ur right Dodgers will B lucky to finish season in 4th place w/all ur doom n gloom. Too all the crybabies I’m sorry ur not smart enough or lucky enough to B Dodger fans. So sad. Go Dodgers !
This sounds like a disaster waiting to happen.
what is the over/under on Paxton even making it through spring training ?