Left-hander Sean Manaea has a lengthy track record of being a decent mid-rotation starter, but the past couple of years have been challenging. Overall, he has an earned run average of 4.10 in just over 1,000 career innings at the major league level. He has struck out roughly a quarter of batters faced in each of the past four full seasons and has never had a walk rate higher than 8.4%.
But in 2022, his performance dipped, as his ERA jumped to 4.96 with the Padres. His peripherals were still pretty strong, as he struck out 23.2% of batters faced and walked just 7.5%, but it was nonetheless a poor time for diminished results as he was heading into free agency for the first time.
The Giants took a shot on Manaea, giving him a two-year, $25MM deal that allowed him to opt out after the first season. The club was aggressive in deploying openers, only giving Manaea 10 actual starts, but he logged 117 2/3 innings on the year over 37 appearances. He finished with a 4.44 ERA, 25.7% strikeout rate and 8.4% walk rate. Though those results were more decent than spectacular, he still decided to trigger his opt-out and return to the open market.
Things get a little more interesting when digging deeper into his season, which may give more insight into his decision to try free agency again. Notably, Manaea added a sweeper this year and had great results with it. Per Statcast data, he first threw the pitch on May 30 and ultimately tossed it 214 times, 10.4% of his pitches thrown on the season overall. He felt comfortable throwing it to both righties and lefties, with a perfect split of 107 sweepers thrown to each. That resulted in a huge whiff percentage of 35.1% and a batting line of .140/.161/.163. Even when batters did make contact, the 82.8mph average exit velocity was easily the lowest of any of his offerings.
The impact on his overall results is quite clear. In his first 11 appearances of the year, prior to introducing the sweeper, he had a 6.61 ERA, 28.9% strikeout rate, 12.5% walk rate, 32.6% ground ball rate and eight home runs in just 32 2/3 innings. The rest of the way, he had a 3.60 ERA, 24.2% strikeout rate, 6.6% walk rate, 44% ground ball rate and six home runs in 85 innings. The Giants gave him four actual starts to finish the year and he posted a 2.25 ERA in those, averaging six innings per start.
This is still a fairly small sample size of results but the change in his arsenal at least gives some reason to believe that it may not just be a fluke. Last month, Driveline tweeted some video of a session with Manaea which showed him also trying out a splitter, perhaps suggesting Manaea is still trying to find yet another gear going forward.
MLBTR’s Top 50 Free Agents predicted Manaea for a contract of two years and $22MM, an average annual value of $11MM. That’s roughly the going rate for a back-end innings eater these days. MLBTR’s Contract Tracker shows that Lance Lynn got $11MM while Kyle Gibson got $13MM. Jack Flaherty got $14MM and Luis Severino $13MM despite a poor platform seasons, while Frankie Montas got $16MM even though he missed almost all of the year recovering from shoulder surgery. Tyler Mahle got $22MM over two years even though he’s going to miss at least part of the upcoming campaign while rehabbing from Tommy John surgery.
If Manaea can maintain the results he showed over the final four months of 2023, he could be a bargain, especially with pitchers like Blake Snell and Jordan Montgomery set for nine-figure deals. The need for starting pitching is still high and just about every club would benefit from the kind of performance Manaea seems capable of. His market has been very quiet this winter, with the Giants reportedly interested in a reunion but no other suitors publicly mentioned.
mostlytoasty
with the kind of money being handed out to some real dud SPs, Manaea should be a great bargain get for whoever signs him
nukeg
I agree. I’d love to see the Angels sign him. I think under Ron Wash you’d see the 2023 second-half Manaea take the mound each and every time. There’s a lot to like here.
HalosHeavenJJ
That would be four lefties in the rotation. I do think the Angels infield defense improves this year, but that is still a lot of lefties.
nukeg
True. Esp if they’re serious about Snell (which I think may be a Boras plug). That’s the rub about this pitching staff. It’s hard to upgrade mediocre with…mediocre.
Sandoval and Detmers can be great pitchers at times, but they also can be straight up meh. Anderson was a horrible signing and IMO shouldn’t be starting. Suarez is best traded. I do not trust that guy. I think some team out there can be duped by framing him as a young LHP. I’m a fan of Silseth and Canning. I’m also a fan of seeing these guys in a more operable 5 man rotation.
All that said, there’s room at the top for Snell and maybe mix in Manaea if Anderson and Suarez aren’t in the starting 5 at the beginning of the season. Good depth maybe.
In a post-Ohtani world, I think Ron Wash could do something with this rotation:
Snell, Detmers, Sandoval, then 2 from this list: Silseth, Manaea, and Canning.
Can’t have enough depth (as we all know).
Pete'sView
Manaea is so Angels. Sign him and weep.
LordD99
The starting pitcher inflation will extend down to the second tier. He’ll go for more than MLBTR’s projection.
Pete'sView
Sean Manaea is as risky a pitcher as there is. Despite this post saying he’s a mid-rotation guy, his stats scream #5 or even a #6.
While his second half results were markedly improved, he’s still an unreliable arm, and I can only hope the Giants stay away from a reunion.
williemaysfield
the Giants are losing 500 innings to injury and free agency. It would be wise to pick up one of the top starters and a couple of innings eaters like Manaea amd Junis.
Pete'sView
Yes, I’d like them to re-sign Junis, a very useful arm.
drasco036
2/22 would be a solid investment for most teams, even as a swingman.
This one belongs to the Reds
I was half expecting Po Boy to sign him but he got Montas instead.
Sid Bream Speed Demon
I have seen you say that name a bunch, but who exactly is “Po Boy” and why do you call him that?
JoeBrady
seen you say that name a bunch
========================
He signs onto random threads just to use the name “Po Boy”. I don’t know why, but he’s had to use it at least 100x already.
Blue Baron
@JoeBrady: And he still hasn’t explained which one belongs to the Reds.
Sid Bream Speed Demon
It may be way more, I have read it numerous times, I keep wanting to ask who he’s talking about and why, but then someone like you or some of the others make an interesting comment that gets my attention and I forget to ask!
Sid Bream Speed Demon
That one, I suppose. lol. The one over there. No, the other one.
It all seems a bit nonsensical when you look at the overall package. If he’s calling the team owner “Po Boy” all the time he must be loaded!
BrianStrowman9
I believe Po Boy is Nick Krall.
Why he constantly says that or came up with it is beyond me though.
solaris602
I’ll take my chances on Montas for a year. The rose colored glasses crowd hail his second half last year, but my gut tells me he’s gonna be somebody’s boobie prize. If Manaea is all that the Giants would have already locked him up.
Not a clever name
Giants tried he wasn’t interested, my thinking is he doesn’t like the whole coming in after the opener thing. Or he is looking for a team more likely to contend. He passed on 10’s of millions with out any guarantee he would surpass the amount in FA, so I’m guessing money is an important but still secondary factor for him.
Pete'sView
Bringing back Manaea (by the Giants) would be a major mistake by Farhan.
williemaysfield
Innings Gaints are losing
Free agents
Manaea 117
Wood 97
Junis 86
Alexander 48
Brebbia 36
Cobb 151 (mid season return)
If you don’t want Manaea whose replacing these innings?
Giants need to sign at least 3 pitchers. Harrison , Beck, and Winn should increase their totals. They were all rookies last year so not sure you can count on them fully.
Chuck from Uniontown
I think Manaea is going to get a lot more than 2/$22M. $30M+ is the floor imo, not that I hope my team signs him.
acoss13
Yes I agree, if Lance Lynn got 13 million dollars for one year from the Cardinals, Manaea will get more. Not that I want the Cubs to sign him, they should aim higher.
Balzenuf
hardy har har
mookiesboy
I’d give him 45 over three of Steve’s money today !
Pete'sView
HUGE mistake!
scottn59c
His first half of 2023 with the Giants was brutal. There was a reason he got yanked from starting. However, he started to look better in the second half, and he was a pro about the demotion. I hope that a fresh start somewhere can unlock his better half. Watching him last season, though, I must say that I was pretty stoked when he opted out.
Buzz Saw
Did you read the article at all?
martras
…and what would lead you to believe @Scottn59C didn’t read the article? Is it because he didn’t specifically mention the sweeper?
paddyo furnichuh
Maybe because Scottn59c basically re-stated the article, but not very accurately.
Describing things by halves (inaccurate) and the 2nd from last sentence makes it seem like commenter didn’t read article completely.
scottn59c
Of course I read it. I’m giving my take as a fan, which, yes, shares some common ground with the article.
@paddyo: Half the season he sucked, and half the season he somewhat righted the ship. Parse that however you like.
Pete'sView
And if you saw how badly Manaea sucked, you’d be wary of signing him.
C Yards Jeff
Refreshing take Scottn59c, Stats/analytics are weighted and valued heavily on this site. IMO, too heavily. Thanks for an eye witness assessment/account of how you saw Manaea’s 23 season unfold.
Fenway 1
Red Sox should bring him in. We need pitching plus he can’t no hit us this way!!
smkelly1970
they blew their wad on Giolito. no more big spending!!! (rolls eyes)
JoeBrady
His profile is actually better than I expected. But his numbers at Fenway just awful. I can discount some numbers based on small sample sizes, but those numbers, and being a lefty, makes me distrust him.
Mikenmn
$10+M for a gaggle of thoroughly eh pitchers tells you something, and it’s not good. Out of this group of seven names, how many will manage even 2 WAR?
NYMets973
Mets please grab him
Bill M
Certainly better than Severino. But I don’t think he’ll go for a one year deal
Attystephenadams
Given the pitcher inflation this year, I think that the Mets would be lucky to get him at 2 years, 28 million. But he may be holding out for a 3 year deal.
just_thinkin
This has Orioles written all over it. I’d be okay with it. Slot in as a #3 or #4, some hidden upside. Their pitching guys would get the most out of that new sweeper.
Ubaldo Jimenez
Was thinking the same. O’s need a lefty other than Means, too.
Joel P
Orioles need a legit top of the rotation pitcher not Manaea.
DonOsbourne
Cards should have been all over Manaea.
Joel P
Yeah I like him better than Gibson and Lynn for sure.
Jesse Chavez enthusiast
Id love to see the Orioles grab a guy like Blake Snell but unfortunately I don’t see it happening. Maybe they could trade from their bat surplus and acquire Luzardo?
C Yards Jeff
Manaea and the Os. I would love to see it. I’m thinking it’s a “no” though.
Sean’s bound for a 2 year deal. O’s GM has yet to go beyond a year on any FA deal.
Plus going by last year’s FA spending (Gibson, Frazier and Givens), which totaled around $20 mil, Kimbral and Manaea would surpass that, by what, 4 to 6 mil? Doubt if GM Elias would even consider running that one by owner Angelo’s.
BrianStrowman9
I doubt that the O’s are that cash strapped, Jeff.
Manaea could be a possibility. Definite upgrade to Cole Irvin
HBRC1987
The Giants? Why would a guy like Manae want to play in that city for that terrible franchise? No one does.
Candlestoked
Your comment reeks!
braveshomer
So does all that poop on the streets in San Fran!….bwahahaha
azcrook
And the poop in the streets of NYC, LA, Chicago, Seattle, San Diego, Baltimore, Phoenix, DC, etc.
JoeBrady
SF thinks it is fertilizer, not poop.
Pete'sView
braveshomer — You sound like a teenager. One who doesn’t live in SF and may never have visited it.
braveshomer
PetesView-I have never been to SF nor do I plan too. But I noticed how you didn’t say it’s not true? Didn’t they create a website/app that locates Poop on sidewalks in SF, similar to pot hole maps?…sounds like a problem there sir.
Candlestoked
Braves, there’s also a site called Poop! I’m in the South!
HBRC1987
There’s a couple areas of filth but 95% of SF is actually perfectly clean. I drive through it all the time for Warriors and Giants games and the streets are spotless. Its a lie spewed by the rightwing media.
HBRC1987
Fyi my comment was pure tongue in cheek satire based on all the clowns who talk down on SF. Thought it was pretty obvious. “Why would Manea want to play there” when he just did and has stated he loves the bay area.
braveshomer
Yeah I immediately thought maybe you didn’t know he just played for the Giants or something lol….couldn’t resist the Reek and Poop connection lol
HBRC1987
Reek and Poop connection? That sounds like a good 30 for 30 episode, or maybe an old timey double play combo.
Juggy
Hard Pass
westcasey
Agreed. Manea would be affordable, solid risk for Balt, NY, Det, KC, LAA, in AL.
NL teams like Mets, Cubs, Cinci, SF, SD all seem need-matched.
I would not wait for long either.
Americanentropy
He sounds like a good candidate for a 1 – year prove it to me deal or a multi year with an options to bolt after one year. LAA have so many holes, they could do worse.
deweybelongsinthehall
Why then opt out as he did? He’s likely looking for a minimum of $15m per regardless of the length.
The Big Yo
Lovely pitcher. If he puts it together like he did in August and September 12mil is a steal. He’s a 3 or more likely a 4 this year that can escape the year with a sub 4.00era and 12 wins. Go to Boston
Pete'sView
Lovely?
WrongM
Added a sweeping slider & still tinkering with pitch development and mix? Sounds like a siren song for the Twins if they actually decide to play in the free agent pitching market.
LambchoP
I’d love it if the Twins took a chance on him. We need a lefty and we need SP. Give him a two year deal with a buyout team option after year one….
DroppedThirdStrike
I watched him twice early in the season and it was brutal. Ball had no velocity, poor location, no movement, and poor sequencing for what he was trying to throw. It looked like he was aiming for the bat.
Hope he’s actually got that turned around. Good that he’s trying to adapt.
davemlaw
Manaea tricks you into thinking he’s an above average pitcher when he’s really just average.
Don’t let his size or big sweeping locks of hair fool you. Yes, he’s left handed and throws 95+. But his command isn’t great and his overall numbers last year are deceiving; he threw better as a bulk innings guy, 3-5 IP/appearance.
Some team is going to give him a 3 year deal but they’ll end up disappointed if they use him as a traditional starter. As a bulk innings guy used after an opener he would have value at 3/$36M.
south side hit men
2/22 would be good for the White Sox. But 22 isn’t going to get it done and his numbers are still too good for him to start for the Sox
twinky
He would be a good fit for the Twins
martras
I don’t see the Twins needing another #5ish starter.
twinky
I can’t disagree with that
Joel P
Yeah Twins need someone who could MAYBE be an ace but won’t cost a ton. Trade for Manoah. Trevor Bauer. Stroman. Maybe Ryu. Someone like that.
raulp
Still astonished by the $16MM to Montas after a season and a half out of the loop and so many other proven arms still available.
martras
So often pitchers add a pitch, even if it’s not a great one, and they get instant results because the scouting reports take time to catch up. Once the opposing hitters are made aware of the pitches, it’s literally like a light switch and opposing hitters just tee off on it.
Manea’s sweeper doesn’t move well and he has no control over it’s location.
Joel P
I wonder who if anyone will sign Trevor Bauer. Can we not talk about him?
619MetroFriars
Sean would be a good fit in Chicago as the #2 or #3 guy in their rotation. (White Sox).
Kelly Wunsch N' Munch
Whole heartedly agree. Unfortunately, I don’t think they have any real designs on fielding an even remotely competitive team.
joew
seems like he could’ve been a fit for the pirates earlier in the off season. would have been a quality mid/backend guy for the pirates… likely anyway. a 2-3 year deal would’ve worked out nice as he would be finishing as the pirates prospects (hopefully) perform.
Yoki
Sean Manaea finished the year great with the Giants.
He should be happy that Frankie Montas got 1 yr / $16 million, as he might be looking as his bet to opt-out as a win.
pogo
I think Sean should stay in SF. I feel like he was hot garbage when he got there and the coaching staff helped him quite a bit. And never gave up him even though he couldn’t find his zone. New coaching staff probably helped him make up his mind but SF churns out some midling talent into reliable. Now if they could just make hitters better….