Infielder Jorge Polanco and right fielder Max Kepler “are the two Twins players drawing the most interest on the trade market,” sources tell Bobby Nightengale of the Minneapolis Star Tribune. With Polanco in particular, MLB Network’s Jon Morosi adds that the former All-Star’s market has “increased” within the last week.
It doesn’t appear as though a deal might be particularly close for either player, as the Twins are one of several teams whose winter business has been somewhat stalled by the logjam at the top of the free agent market. As Minnesota PBO Derek Falvey told Nightengale and other reporters at the Winter Meetings, “what we continue to hear on the trade front…is ’Hey, we have interest in some of your players. We’d like to talk about these guys, but we have to wait on a few other things to happen,’ or free agent discussions to come to pass. When that happens, you’re constantly waiting to some degree.”
Trade winds have swirled around Polanco and Kepler even before the offseason began, and that speculation even before Favley said last month that the Twins were going to reduce their payroll for 2024. It is worth noting that the Twins might’ve been able to make those cuts simply by not retaining Polanco or Kepler for the next season, though the team opted to exercise club options on both players (Polanco for $10.5MM, Kepler for $10MM) rather than just lose them for nothing.
With some level of trade interest brewing, it would appear as through Minnesota’s front office made the right decision. Obviously it remains to be seen if either player will be dealt at all, or what a return might be for either solid-but-unspectacular veteran. Kepler also has only one year of control remaining, while Polanco can be controlled through the 2025 season via another club option ($12MM with a $750K buyout).
A case can be made that the Twins could or retain both Polanco and Kepler given how the team has battled injuries (including some missed time for these two themselves) over the last two seasons, yet Minnesota does appear to have something of a surplus around the diamond. With Royce Lewis and Edouard Julien emerging last season, third base and second base might now be covered, leaving Polanco without an obvious starting position since Carlos Correa naturally has Polanco’s old shortstop spot covered. Matt Wallner, Nick Gordon, and Trevor Larnach are all left-handed hitting outfield options, so Kepler might be a bit of an expendable piece.
Perhaps ideally, Minnesota would prefer to trade utilityman Kyle Farmer (and his $6.6MM projected arbitration salary) rather than Polanco or Kepler. That said, rival teams would likewise be more willing to give up a notable return to land an everyday type of commodity rather than Farmer, who is maybe best suited for a part-time role. Since center field, first base, and the rotation are all target areas for the Twins this winter, they might have no choice but to move at least one of Polanco and Kepler to thread of needle of upgrading the roster while also reducing payroll at the same time.
99CaptainJudge99
Ok I will take both & that order to go please!
GaryWarriorsRedSoxx
Yes seriously, ditto. Great pickups if made available.
Dorothy_Mantooth
Polanco to the Red Sox please. He can play an adequate 2B for them. His offense is the difference maker here. I’d prefer him over India.
Irishblade
Mariners pleeeeeease
sisseton
I’d trade Polonco so Seattle, not sure if they’d be willing to give up 1 of Kirby or Gilbert + 1 of Hancock or Cole Philips?
Irishblade
I think Phillips would be in play just due to him joining the team recently. But I also thought Seattle was trading everyone to make a run at shohei or Soto and I was clearly wrong haha
muskie73
FWIW Baseball Trade Values assigns surplus values of $9.4 million to Jorge Polanco, $91.1 million to George Kirby, $65.9 million to Logan Gilbert, $3.8 million to Emerson Hancock and $3.2 million to Cole Phillips.
Set your sights accordingly.
99CaptainJudge99
Ok, I will take that order to go please!
3768902
[Insert red-eyed Jack Nicholson Yes GIF here]
bhambrave
Until the Braves got Kelenic, I thought Kepler might be a possible fit for them in LF.
RunDMC
Absolutely, I think everyone is happy with what we got, except for the Braves water coolers. Jarred still mending that relationship.
steelerbravenation
Don’t know why they won lol
HBan22
I had been thinking the same thing. Kepler would have been a perfect fit for Atlanta.
B1G City
I’m blown away that the Cubs, Blue Jays and MARINERS haven’t come a knocking.
TennVol
I am sure the Jays are among those teams saying, “we are very interested, but need to wait to negotiate for a few days”. I could easily see the Jays getting Kepler for LF. Above average hitter and fielder for a mediocre dollar amount.
Ghangis
100%
Joel P
Kepler is a terrific fit for the Jays. Lefty bat with the ability to play some center is exactly what they need.
srsbryzness
Kepler doesn’t want to play CF, that’s why he’s barely appeared there the past few years despite Buxton’s injury problems.
Joel P
Yeah it does appear he isnt playing center anymore. Jays need 2 outfielders so even if Kepler doesn’t play center he’s still a good fit.
slydevil
Kepler didn’t play center because they had a gold glove center who could play just about every day.
its_happening
Replace terrific with adequate, and the CF statement is false. Zero innings in 2023, 9 innings in 2022, Kepler isn’t touching CF.
HBan22
Polanco would be a good addition to the Jays too. His bat would be a big upgrade over any internal options they currently have for 2B. Perhaps they could trade a package for both Polanco and Kepler. They have the pieces to get it done.
Seamaholic
Polanco’s a terrible defender. Good professional hitter, albeit one who’s hurt a lot. Kind of depends what you want.
Joel P
Kepler can still play center dude. He would back up Varsho not be the primary center fielder.
Good gosh.
its_happening
Kepler isn’t playing CF. Please stop pretending you follow or watch baseball. Based on recent playing time alone makes your statement completely false.
Joel P
They need a BACKUP CENTERFIELDER not a starter Varsho is going to start in center.
Whyme
Jays have Varsho and don’t need a CF
Tools_of_Ignorance
I don’t know how anyone looks at his year-by-year batting lines and thinks anything other than wild inconsistency.
Which Kepler are you getting?
Rexhudler86
Maybe the angels can trade Evan white for polanco. He’s a highly coveted bum
steelerbravenation
If Pirates are truly wanting to keep Henry Davis as a catcher than I think they line up perfect for a trade getting both Polanco & Kepler.
herethereeverywhere2
The Pirates don’t have what the Twins need (mid/top rotation pitcher plus a couple of prospects) to make this trade. I don’t see them trading Mitch Keller for example, and not sure the Jesus Luzardo plus prospects will get it done. It will open holes they cannot close.
The Twins are competing and they need major league pitching back. This is not a fire sale. They don’t have to trade if they don’t get what they need
Gwynning
With all due respect hte, in what world does a Polanco/Kepler combo even come close to netting a TOR or mid-rotation arm?
Sky14
Kepler and Polanco are solid players but doubt anyone would give a TOR arm for either. Maybe an intriguing minor league arm but not a established starter.
bmcferren
Why are they trading Kepler and Polanco if they are competing???
The twins pirates trade to watch out for is perpetually injured Pittsburgh hometown hero Kirriloff in exchange for tommy John starting pitcher Brubaker and tommy John starting pitcher burrows
steelerbravenation
Hey goofy Twins need to trim payroll thats the reason they want to move them in the first place
Pirates give up a couple arms it would more than likely get it done
You really think those 2 that close to FA pulls a TOR arm from any organization
Your delusional if you do
You might get a couple change of scenery guys & a prospect for the salary relief at best
I swear I been on this sight since 06 & every year these posts get worse & worse with video game GMs
Joel P
Video game GMs? Anthopolos thinks he’s playing a video game and you defend him. Wonder why.
Seamaholic
Kepler and Polanco at $10m+ each and 3 total years of control doesn’t sniff a mid-top rotation starter. They’d get 3 or 4 interesting prospects, maybe with one a bottom half top 100 guy if they’re lucky.
slydevil
Rays traded Joe Ryan for 1/2 a year of Nelson Cruz. Teams make the trades all the time for established veterans because most prospects do not work out.
A bird in the hand is worth two in the bush.
The cut payroll stuff is just billionaire owner posturing. Right now, they are looking at the books and all the holiday sales because winning sells merch and puts people in the seats.
stretch123
Marlins and Twins match up well again this off-season. Polanco (could play SS), Kepler (could split time at in corner OF/DH with De La Cruz and Sanchez) and maybe even Vásquez if Twins eat soem salary.
Would Marlins do two of them (w/ some salary relief) for a pitcher (Rodgers or Cabrera) or some prospects?
Big whiffa
Yeah that’s about as close to a logical deal that’s out there, but it still leaves massive holes in twins line up.
No clue how the twins can shed payroll, loose both these guys in a trade when they are on extremely team friendly deals, and then get enough in return to put a competitive team on the field next year.
I say trade is very unlikely
martras
@Big whiffa – Twins 2B depth chart is like 7 guys deep.
Polanco, Castro, Farmer, Gordon, Lee, Julien, Martin
RF is a bigger question mark and it depends on whether or not the Twins move Kirilloff back to LF and how sure fire they want their RF to be.
Even if they did make these moves, there’s always the trade market and other free agency options.
The Twins’ problem is not going to be the position players, it’s the rotation right now.
herethereeverywhere2
Why would the Twins trade 2 of them for just one back of the rotation pitcher?
They would be looking for someone like Jesus Luzardo or Bruxton Garrett plus a couple prospects close to the majors who don’t need to be added to the 40 man roster.
The Twins won their division last season and plan to compete this season as well. This is not a fire sale. They can keep them all, unless they get an offer they cannot refuse.
stretch123
lol you’re not getting Luzardo for two players that are so close to FA
steelerbravenation
Stop stop stop Polanco can not play SS
HBan22
This is a valid point. Polanco is a below average defender at 2B, nevermind SS. And he’d be blocked by Arraez at 2B in Miami. Vazquez was barely better last year than Stallings was with the bat. The Marlins are looking for a catcher who can actually hit. If Polanco was capable of playing SS and Vazquez hadn’t fallen off a cliff with his bat last year, I could see them potentially packaging them in a deal for Trevor Rogers. But as it stands now, I don’t think that trade lines up.
One way to make this trade work would be if the Twins were willing to trade Brooks Lee. He’s a top SS prospect who is nearly MLB ready, but blocked by the Twins due to their glut of middle infielders. I could absolutely see a Brooks Lee for Rogers or Edward Cabrera deal.
Seamaholic
Polanco can barely play 2B these days. No one’s trading for him to play short.
Ignorant Son-of-a-b
Smh Polanco & Kepler are pretty much DFA candidates; nobody is going to give up anything of value for them, at least anybody useful for the Twins to plug in anywhere.
slydevil
Send arraez back for polanco and they might work something out.
The Natural
After Nightengale getting chewed out by the Cubs for releasing info about their “waning interest” in Ohtani and Morosi reporting Ohtani as on a jet to Toronto, who can believe them?
WestVillageTiger
It’s almost like someone is leaking false leads to the press just to mess with them…
GhostofRandySavage
Unless Passan writes it, I’m usually skeptical
Curveball1984
Passan usually gets it right, but is a bit of a muckraker tho.
herethereeverywhere2
Different Nightengale. This one is Twins beat writer
Joestin Morneauer
Does STL make sense for Polanco?
Joel P
Cardinals don’t need Polanco. They have plenty of infielders with more at AAA on the way.
skrockij89
Would be nice for Seattle but that’s probably wishful thinking on my end.
marinersblue96
They would be a great fit for the M’s and honestly financially as well.. Local media keeps speculating they want to spread the money around to fill holes. These two for just over $20 million makes a lot of sense vs signing one free agent for the same amount,. it would take Woo or Miller and some other pieces.
Stevil
Kepler more than Polanco, but it certainly wouldn’t cost Miller or Woo even for both. Salary and control are factors here.
Caballero for Kepler, for example, would be fair for both teams.
Pasta Rob
Caballero wouldn’t get it done. MN wants pitching primarily and Woo/Miller is an overpay so it would likely require a 3-way trade with another team to get MN what they want.
marinersblue96
I don’t see the fit with Caballero to the Twins though. Seems they have a glut of middle infielder types and need pitching both starting and relief. And the scenario for either Woo or Miller would be for both, Polanco had a rough year last year but is a definite bounce back candidate.
Ignorant Son-of-a-b
Seattle could get way more in return from a different team. Polanco & Kepler are basically DFA candidates…Seattle doesn’t want these scrubs.
Stevil
One year of Kepler isn’t netting them 6 years control of good, young starting pitching.
Stevil
If they move Polanco they would have a use for a utility infielder they could option.
Stevil
They aren’t scrubs. But one year and 10m limits their value.
marinersblue96
I would much rather move Moore than Caballero. Both Woo and Miller and back of the rotation SP, their ceiling is somewhat limited. Honestly, I would love to see Woo moved to the closer role, neither Brash or Munoz look to have the makeup to be a closer but are exceptional in the set up role. And I think Woo would be elite.
martras
@StevIl
The Twins have no need for such a player.
Gordon, Julien, Castro, Farmer, Martin, Lee still in the system.
martras
Kepler is a reliable 2-3 WAR starter. 1 year and $10MM. If Kepler was a free agent, he’d probably get 2-3 years and $36-50MM.
Polanco’s been more of an injury problem recently, but is a 3 WAR starter when healthy, which he should be right now. He’s a 1 year $10MM + 1 team option $12MM. That option is pretty valuable.
Tough to say what comes out of shopping them, but neither is bringing back a good, cost controlled starter. Even combined they’ll fall short, I suspect.
Stevil
Maybe, but there’s something to be said about MLB experience and control.
Minnesota may also rely on someone from that group to DH.
But the bigger point is that Kepler isn’t getting them Miller or Woo.
masisk33
Wrong. Imagine these guys being free agents right now…they’d both get over $10MM per season for 3-4 yrs each. The Twins had great foresight by extending them when they did.
They are NOT DFA candidates by any stretch of the imagination. In fact, they are viewed as solid, above average regulars by people that actually know baseball.
Stevil
That’s your response? ‘Wrong’?
Tchau
masisk33
I wasn’t replying to you, Stevil. My post was in reply to Ignorant son-of-a-b.
What is Tchau? Did you mean CHAO? As in, bye-bye?
ohyeadam
All 13 position player slots for the Twins are claimed right now, assuming health. You’re not sending down Wallner, Lewis or Julien and everyone else can’t be sent down.
Kepler was on the stove all last season. They’ve got the same pool of players(Larnach, Gordon) plus Castro and Martin as his replacement this offseason as they did last offseason if he’s traded. One in the hand is worth two in the bush, keep him.
Polanco got hurt and lost his spot to Julien then Lewis. Still a plus bat and okay fielder at 2B, definitely not a SS or 3B. Twins have Julien, Farmer, Castro, Gordon, Martin, Miranda, Lee to replace him. Infields too crowded and they need a regular CF as Buxton insurance. Trade Polanco for prospects or add a piece for controllable starting pitching
jgaepi
Padres going back to the well …
D68Soldier
I would hope the Padres have interest in Kepler.
Wagner>Cobb
The Mariners could really use Polanco. They probably need him, Chapman at 3B (will they spend the money?), and one or two of the OFers still out there.
Unless the plan is for Rojas and Canzone to be starters next year. Then focus on Chapman for 3B and maybe Gurriel in the OF?
marinersblue96
I like Polanco but Chapman is hard pass. He’s a defensive first 3B with a regressing bat. And for the money he is going to get the M’s can use that elsewhere.
I would love Gurriel though.
muskie73
Jorge Polanco does not represent a significant upgrade over Seattle’s 2B/3B logjam of Josh Rojas, Luis Urias, Jose Caballero, Dylan Moore and intriguing prospect Ryan Bliss.
Max Kepler may come into play if the Mariners can’t land an outfielder with more team control.
martras
Jorge Polanco represents a huge upgrade over those players. Polanco brings a 20% above league average bat to the table and passable 2B defense. Now that his ankle is fully healed up, he’s positioned to deliver a 3+WAR season.
Rojas can’t hit and Urias had a rough year at the plate as well. Moore’s a UI without a plus bat in his 30s who the Mariners extended as cheap insurance. Caballero has great defense, but it’s unlikely he’ll be able to hold his own from an offensive standpoint, young with options and low cost. He’s a good replacement for Moore. Bliss could pan out, but he’s unlikely to get any looks this year unless something goes way sideways.
muskie73
Compare how Jorge Polanco stacks up with current Mariners in fWAR over the past two seasons:
Polanco 3.3 fWAR in 184 games
Luis Urias: 2.2 fWAR in 171 games
Josh Rojas: 3.8 fWAR in 230 games
Jose Caballero: 2.2 fWAR in 104 games (2023 debut)
Dylan Moore: 2.8 fWAR in 171 games
Seattle also has an intriguing second-base prospect in Ryan Bliss, who is projected to make his MLB debut in 2024 after posting these numbers this year split between Double A and Triple A in his age 23 season:
612 PA, .304/.378/.524/.902, 110 R, 23 HR, 86 RBI, 34 2B, 8 3B, 55 SB, 15 CS, 58 BB, 119 K
Bliss was the starting second baseman for the National League in the 2023 Futures Game before being sent to Seattle later that month in the Paul Sewald trade. Bliss was named Defensive Player of the Year in the Arizona Fall League where he slugged a grand slam in the championship play-in game.
martras
@muskie – Polanco’s balky ankle caused him a lot of issues, and it seems to be healed up at this point.
fWAR 3.3, bWAR 4.8. I suspect most teams view Polanco as a 3+ WAR player in a healthy full season like I do, and the Twins wouldn’t have exercised his option if they didn’t feel the interest was there.
muskie73
Few teams are likely to bet on a heathy bounceback by Jorge Polanco on the wrong side of 30 after his two sub-2 WAR seasons.
martras
@muskie73 – Great! “Few” means more than 0 and that’s all it takes.
martras
I fully expect Polanco, Kepler, and Farmer to be dealt.
ClevelandSteelEngines
Is this related to the TV deal issues that have been circulating through the league that have been widely ignored by reporters?
LordD99
Yes to both.
marinersblue96
I don’t know about the rest of the country but the M’s have been trying to push that narrative in the Seattle market for weeks. Most fans just aren’t buying it though. They own 70% of their RSN, Comcast announced that ROOT(M’s RSN) is moving to a premier subscription for additional fees. Now the franchise is stating that may effect their payroll after years of promising to bring in elite free agents once they have a young core(which they have in spades). They don’t mention that they will get a cut of the premier subscription. They also own the right to the Portland Trailblazer and the Kraken and they don’t have to report any of that income to MLB. As an M’s fan it feels they keep moving the goal posts. Current ownership needs to sell the team if they are unable to go for a ring. Plenty of billionaires in the area that would be lining up to purchase the team.
marinersblue96
Which drives me crazy that Seattle didn’t try to sign Correa or Simien two years ago. Their TV deal nets them a minimum of $117 million, they signed a 17 year deal worth $ 2 billion and own 70% of the network. This doesn’t include the streaming deal they signed with FUBO last year.
As a M’s fan it is frustrating to see other teams with TV deals far below Seattle’s be able to sign these elite FA.
Kelland
Yup, Twins finished their Diamond contract at end of last season. It sounds like there might be something in place though it has not been announced yet. That deal gave the Twins 55m/yr and speculation is any new broadcast deal won’t come anywhere near that price. I’ve heard many reporters mention it when talking about the Twins lower payroll for the upcoming year.
Motor City Beach Bum
Hope Minnesota and Correa like golfing. Detroit Tigers 2024 AL Central champions!
ohyeadam
This is Twins Territory!!
Motor City Beach Bum
Ohyeadam…which golf course are you at for it to be Twins territory?
ohyeadam
The tigers need a DH and I heard Miguel Sano is in the best shape of his life. Maybe he can improve their bottom tier offense
Motor City Beach Bum
The Tigers have too many DH types already! Lots of bats coming up from the minors. They already stole Maeda from you guys this year so we have filled our quota of ex-Twins.
masisk33
How’s that Javy Baez deal working out for Detroit?
Motor City Beach Bum
Masisk..All I can say to that is ugghh! Words can’t describe it. At least the defense is stil good.
martras
I’d give the odds on the AL Central right now as
Tigers 45%
Twins 35%
Guardians 12%
White Sox 5%
Royals 2%
The Twins have 1 good starter. 2 Mediocre starters and some question marks.
3768902
Now do the Tigers rotation.
martras
Sure.
Skubal > Lopez
Maeda > Paddack
Gipson-Long and Olson both looked good to great. Behind that, it looks rough for the Tigers, but they’re also still shopping and not dumping payroll.
Motor City Beach Bum
Manning as well. Until he hurts his foot. It will likely be when they play the Twins and the Twinkies leave their putters around on the outfield grass.
3768902
Your intellect is truly dizzying.
libertybell444
If I were the Phillies, I’d get both or just Polanco. He’s a switch hitting middle infielder that can play 2-3 times a week and probably hit off the bench in key spots like they needed a guy to do in the NLCS, especially game 7 for Rojas.