Though many of us are still full of cookies and eggnog, here are three things to keep an eye on around the baseball world throughout the day today:
1. What’s next for the Mariners after signing Garver?
The Mariners made their first buy-side splash of the offseason on Christmas Eve, inking catcher Mitch Garver to a two-year, $24MM deal. While he’s unlikely to do too much catching given the presence of Cal Raleigh, Garver’s bat has proven to be more than capable of handling work as a regular DH. In 87 games with the Rangers last year, Garver slashed an impressive .270/.370/.500 with 19 home runs in just 344 plate appearances and a wRC+ of 138, the 15th best figure among hitters with at least 300 plate appearances.
With Garver likely to take over regular DH duties in Seattle, it’s fair to wonder what the Mariners will do next. While Garver looks to be a strong addition to the club’s lineup, GM Jerry Dipoto and his front office have plenty of work to do in renovating a lineup that has lost Teoscar Hernandez, Jarred Kelenic, and Eugenio Suarez this offseason. An infielder to pair with Luis Urias and Josh Rojas alongside JP Crawford could make some sense, and the club would surely benefit from adding a corner outfielder or two to a mix that currently features the likes of Cade Marlowe, Taylor Trammell, and Sam Haggerty.
2. Can the Padres address all their needs on a budget?
The Padres’ financial woes are well-documented at this point, having spurred the club to flip superstar Juan Soto to the Yankees alongside center fielder Trent Grisham. As things currently stand, the club is reportedly hoping to stay under the luxury tax threshold in 2024, leaving San Diego without much room to address needs all across the roster. The club’s deal with left-hander Yuki Matsui, which became official over the weekend, comes with a $5.7MM AAV for luxury tax purposes, giving the club (according to RosterResource) around $27MM to work with below the first threshold of the luxury tax. While that offers some flexibility to president of baseball operations A.J. Preller and his front office, the club likely needs at least one more reliever, at least one more starting pitcher, and at least two more everyday players in outfield/DH mix.
3. Will Matsui’s signing cause the relief market to pick up?
San Diego’s deal with Matsui land the second multi-year deal for a reliever headed to a new team this offseason after Emilio Pagan’s deal with the Reds late last month. The slow relief market this offseason stands in sharp contrast to last year’s which saw the likes of Edwin Diaz, Robert Suarez, and Rafael Montero sign multi-year pacts in early November. This year, relief ace Josh Hader headlines a class of relievers that also includes the likes of Robert Stephenson, Jordan Hicks, Matt Moore, and Aroldis Chapman. While virtually every contender could benefit from bullpen upgrades, the Cardinals, Cubs, Rangers, and Astros all have specific interest in retooling their relief corps this winter.
Don’t really see the padres adding another pen arm. They have about 10 legit options on the 40 man roster already.
I could see them adding 2 starters and 2-3 position players.
Of course they may decide to leave a spot or so open for prospects to fill.
Somebody better wake up Jed Hoyer.
There are needs in the bullpen and arms available but Jed is thinking his best move and only move was getting Craig Counsell. So far it’s all talk from him. Should be kicking the tires on a feasible package to get Cease from the White Sox but here we are…
Bout time Seattle started to add some bats ! Nice pick up.
They need to sign a pitcher then trade a young controllable pitcher for a bat
No crystal ball but the M’s seem to have gone the cheaper route for the DH. While all three could have on paper worse seasons playing 81 games in Seattle, I’d have preferred either JDM or Turner. Thus, I’m glad on the deal because it leaves it possible that the RS end up again with either of them. I’m still not convinced Yoshida will be their full-time DH in 24.
Would think it is in the best interest of the Mets to revamp their bullpen. Multiyear deal for any solid reliever will overlap their desired window of competition. Shown in past of using former closers to solidify the backend before Diaz.
Would love Hader but too expensive if seeking to have the most lucrative contract for reliever. Robert Stephenson would be interesting…though a reunion with Robertson and signing Chapman would be as interesting.
You could build a great backend of the bullpen, especially if you have 4-5 inning starters. That seems a novel idea to some folks, but championship clubs have that.
Oakland A’s best bullpen in the game 2024
The Bogarts contract will be haunting San Diego for quite some time and I’m actually a big fan of Xander Bogarts.
I just looked at Roster Resource and Machado may haunt them more. He’s only making like $17m right now and will be getting $39m/yr like 3 years from now. That’s gonna be ROUGH.
MLB – I have been reading all of the X contract negativity for the past year and offer this:
Trea Turner got 11/300 while X got 11/280.
X is 1 year older and has played 1 year longer as a result.
Career stats are very similar with X having the edge in part due to the 1 extra year (about 6.5 mor WAR for example).
TT – produced 1.0 LESS WAR than X in 23 while getting paid 2 mil MORE.
Yes X will be 41 but TT will be 40 at the end.
The 20 mil less kind of offsets that.
They both play SS so any aging issues are similar.
I offer this analysis to say this – no one seems to ever complain or say that TT isis a haunting contract for Philly – I have never seen that posted.
I have seen 100’s of such X posts
Why the focus on X is my question.
They both – like all such long term contracts won’t age out well (although 25 mil in 10 years might be close for just an avg player).
Xander is fine, the finally 3 years likely won’t age well. Neither will turner’s, padres wanted it to lower his aav for tax reasons.
Padres fans have issues with it because it seemed unnecessary given they had Kim on the team who was best off at short end cronenworth best off at second.
Xander is a very good player and currently has worth his contract.
None of these deal into their 40’s will age well.
Simm – appreciate the response. I hope others reading it will try to explain why X and not TT.
SD needed the bat and X was the best left on the market – he just happens to play SS which allowed Kim to be an elite 2b and Cro to fill the void at 1b.
Was it a perfect fix? No. But everyone hates on the contract while at the same time, no one hates on the TT contract – they are about as even comparisons as you could ever hope to get.
As for the AAV – I’d argue they Philly did the same with TT so, they really isn’t a distinction between the 2 but rather another similar factor.
Each team tacked on the extra year. You can’t say Philly expected TT to be any more productive at 40 than X will be at 41.
The only difference is X is a year older but again, there is 20 mil less to pay to offset.
I totally agree with your Xander vs Turner comparisons.
Everyone felt like Turner was the better player I suppose.
1 year in and Xander has been better and less expensive.
Simm – I do believe most fans felt TT was better and maybe in the end, may be. Right now, ridiculously similar.
Yet, even now or during the year when you could see it happening / measure it, all the bashing on this site was the X contract while not a peep on the TT contract .
I just don’t get the bias toward bashing X’s contract – and I’m not even making it about the players here but the contracts and the stats.
I think Trea Turner was considered the better player at the time. Also, I think it had to do with who signed the contract. The Padres have a smaller market than the Phillies. On top of that, the Padres have signed a handful of these “bad” 40s contracts. The Phillies didn’t.
The Phillies were a big market team who didn’t spend a ton before they got Bryce Harper. I don’t see many people talking about teams pooling resources during rebuilds. That seems to be as much a part of a rebuild as trading to restock the farm. The Rangers (just like the Phillies) cut spending a decent amount and then exploded back on the free agent market with Seager/Semien.
They competed with no one which is why the deal was and still is underwater. Who was offering anything close to what he got?
I think a lot of it was Padre bashing and Preller bashing and X was just the easy target.
When the Padres rose from the dung heap and became a major player in free agency, the blowback was inevitable.
Cincy – I think I agree with all that you said. Yet, in comparing the contracts themselves to the production provided, fans tend to only bash the X contract. Philly and SD had just met in the NLCS.
Playing a rather close series.
They both sought to improve. Each signed a similar guy to similar contracts and the SD guy who’s is getting paid less for better production (so far anyway) is the one getting bashed.
Dewey – you clearly elect to sidestep the point.
Of course no one of us gander knows what was or was not offered – same with Judge etc.
The contract terms compared to the production is the point.
MS – I think we have a winner. This is a Preller bash using wet ammo because X has produced and because in comparison with TT, the X contract is playing out better!
Im not disagreeing with what you’re saying when you just compare players. I think it just comes down to the market and who can afford what. Part of me wonders if Seidler went all in due to his health. I think Mike Ilitch did the same thing in Detroit. The Padres deals are so long and backloaded that it could set them back worse than the Tigers were.
Cincy – my money is on Seidler making they call for the known reasons.
@msalamy You are right. The difference in the way X and TT may be viewed is more about the scrutiny the Padres are under, and how the Phillies generally aren’t. Maybe that’s because the Phillies have been outplaying them.
And by the time we get to those last 3 years, 25 mill per season is gonna look like nothing.
SD didn’t need a SS, which made the signing questoinable. They moved Kim and Cronenworth down the defensive spectrum to make room for Xander.
I think a lot of it was Padre bashing and Preller bashing and X was just the easy target
=================
I’d say was part of it.
1-Preller out-spent DD by $36M last year, so that was probably considered more egregious.
2-Turner was more of a need for Philly than X was with SD, with moving Kim and Cro decreased their respective defensive values.
3-Just imo, Turner is more athletic and will move to CF in another 3 years. Moving X might be more problematic.
I’d feel comfortable wagering that Turner has a higher WAR over the length of the contract, even if he too is overpaid.
I think it’s Red Sox fandom. I really wanted to keep him, he’s a good guy and good player. But the contract was too expensive. I do think they chose Devers for long term offense over Xander. I don’t completely agree with that judgment. But he’s gone and I wish him well. There’s a lot of anger and not a lot of resilience in the fanbase right now.
The Phillies needed a shortstop. The Padres didn’t. That’s why nobody says those things about the Turner signing.
The Padres needed a bat (and got it based on production). They also needed a 1b and there wasn’t any with a bat to X’s comparison so they decided to shift Kim to 2b (that worked out) and Cro to 1b – no idea he’s this bat would have done if he had stayed at 2b so why speculate – and that didn’t go horrible but not great either.
Ok, X produced more than TT and was 2 mil less – why the hate on the contract terms?
The Padres need a lot of things now. Moving Cronenworth to 1b was and still is dumb.
Turner wasn’t a great signing. But at least the Phillies needed a shortstop. The Padres just tossed money around until someone said yes.
And got 4.4 WAR for their troubles when offense was needed for that lineup. I’m glad that “someone” they said yes was a guy that produces above his contract value!
And now Soto is playing elsewhere while Hader and Snell are clearly not coming back either.
It was a stupid contract.
Kim’s gone in 2025. Tati moved to OF. They needed a SS
Tatis was moved to the outfield because Bogaerts was signed. Cronenworth is not a 1b. Could have just signed a 1b instead.
No he was moved to RF because Kim was better at SS
If that was the reason kind of dumb to move Kim off of short right?
It doesn’t add up champ.
Kim wasn’t much offensively in 2021 2022, Preller wanted a bat. Plus Kim FA after this year.
Why not go get a bat that plays 1b?
I think a bat at 1b was a higher priority in short term, wish they kept Cronz at 2b. just my opinion
What great 1B bat was available? Bogaerts was the best bat available.
Yep
I was going to say this. To their point I was going to say that I didn’t recall as good of a bat option for 1b. Very likely the defense at 1b wouldn’t have been as good as Cro.
Haters will always find a justification- reminds me of my teenage kids – to “prove” they are right.
Nobody is hating. You Padres fans are delusional. Bogarts value was tied to his defensive ability. Moving half the team down a peg on the defensive spectrum just to get him in the lineup was stupid. Now Soto is playing for the Yankees. Could have been prevented if the team didn’t have to pay Bogarts.
“Bogaerts value was tied to his defensive ability.” Seriously? Fangraphs disagrees. Should we believe you, or Fangraphs?
blogs.fangraphs.com/xander-bogaerts-defensive-boge…
He’s a shortstop that’s why he costed what he costed. If he was a 1b he would have costed a lot less.
What is he signed until he’s 40? Good luck with that…..
Joel – first, no it was his bat. Second, since Soto has turned down an extension with Wash and has already said that the Yankees are not extending and from what has been reported he didn’t show interest in an extension with SD, Soto’s time with SD was coming to an end.
I think what you are saying is called “conjecture” and while it might have some level of accuracy it depends on what FO would have / could have / might have done under different circumstances so, we will never know for sure.
Along the way a completely different move might have prevented your conjecture from being accurate.
What if, like some have said, a 1b had been signed instead. Any contract would fit your scenario not specifically X’s signing.
In the long run, X will be SS or 2b for the foreseeable future providing 4.5 – 6.0 WAR for 25 mil/year and I’d say most if not all Padres fans are good with that.
Soto was gone after 24 anyway.
Bad defensive shortstops don’t get paid extra for being shortstops. They get converted to their positions.
Other positions. Auto-correct stinks.
If you can pay Bogarts more than anyone else is willing to pay you can do the same for Soto.
In order to fit Bogarts on the team Tatis had to change positions. Kim had to change positions. Cronenworth had to change positions. All so the Padres could sign a shortstop they didn’t need.
That’s the definition of stupid. And it looks even worse now that the Padres have a budget again.
Yeah like 2b except you got Croenworth and his 8 year extension blocking that position. Or 3b but Machado and his decade long extension is blocking that.
Tatis was moved to RF because he dislocated his shoulder several times diving for balls at SS. That didn’t happen in RF. Also, despite having tremendous range, Tatis was a crappy SS. He had tons of throwing errors. Tatis moving to RF had NOTHING to do with Bogaerts.
Also there are 3 bases, excluding home plate, around the IF. There is something called 1B. There is also LF, CF and RF. That’s one thing about former SS, they can play any position. The Padres have needs at 3 of those positions. Isn’t that handy?
Don’t bother with Joel, he literally comes in here to argue with padres fans everyday. He says stuff like if you wouldn’t have signed Xander you would have been able to keep Soto.
Zero signs that’s true based on sotos actions. On top of which they won’t be paid close to the same.
He will then call padres fans delusional and what not. It’s like he gets off arguing with people. I don’t even know what team he supports. He just likes to act like he knows it all. Just mute him like a lot of people do once you’re tired of his constant same know it all comments.
“Nobody is hating, you Padre fans are delusional”
Sounds like hating right there.
Bogaerts didn’t even provide 4.5 in year one
I’ve got it as one was as need, while the other was seen as gluttony. People want that to fail.
As for the aging, I’d be on Turner doing better. Different body shapes. One is a whippet. Leaner, faster and more agile. The other a bit bulkier. I’d also be backing the one that doesn’t need cortisone injections in his wrist to get through a season.
MLB Fan:
Bogaerts was one of our best players last year…everyone keeps saying its contract is going to haunt the Padres….IMO that’s a little premature.
He’ll likely move to 2b or even 1b in a few years but until he starts regressing I’m not sure why the negativity?
I don’t think you know what “woes” means. This is just lazy writing at this point. The padres are resetting the CBT – spending at the max allowed without penalties does not equal “financial woes.”
Padres fans are in denial and still pretending that every single thing that team insider Acee wrote didn’t come true.
What does Acee report being true or not have to do with the padres payroll still being very high even with cutting payroll back. People write like it’s a disgrace, still a top 10 payroll even while cutting it back.
Padres fans are in denial
=======================
But isn’t this the same with most fans of most teams?
The Yankees delusion with their “trade prospects” long predates Frazier and company.
The NYM fans from a couple of years ago.
The RS fans annual prediction of 70 wins
“With most fans of most teams”..I cannot really disagree, but the vitriol and animus that some Pads fans showed towards the writer Acee was just over the top.
I’m not sure about Padre fans, most are gullible. I’m a Giants fan living in SD married into a Padres family. But every player, coach and FO person has voiced objection to Acee’s never ending hit pieces lacking any stated sources. He’s been wrong about nearly everything, but UT likes the controversy and click bait he creates, regardless of lack of facts. If you think my point above is vitriol, oh, okay. Pick your pleasure.
If you know acee’s past predictions you can understand why most padres fans don’t believe a word he says.
Acee’s prediction about Padres wanting to get under CBT was a case of boy cry wolf. Turns out it might end up being true, but hard to believe Acee without FO confirmation…which we really haven’t fully received even yet? But Preller’s actions seem to confirm this the case.
Nah it’s just been acee and Dennis Lin saying such things. Even then they are hedging their bets by saying they may go over it for the right person. Not sure who is even considered the right person at this point. Snell, Montgomery or bellinger seem to be the only reasonable players that fit that description. None of which seem very likely.
Acee predicted Padres gutting payroll and financial crisis.
He was wrong on both accounts.
Not resigning injury prone arms in Wacha and Lugo, not retaining ineffective guys via arb, and not overpaying for Hader and Snell =/= gutting payroll
Soto was a 1 year rental the minute he saw what Ohtani got. He wants 500 mill or more. Turned down what 420 440 from the Nationals?
Padres payroll is projected to be around 200 and cbt hit around 230. That’s not gutting payroll and a team in financial crisis that acee tried to paint a picture of happening.
It is probably true, but the Padres fans on here are so insecure they feel the need to comment anytime it’s brought up, like is shown in this comment section. All fanbases have annoying people, not all fanbases are equally as outspoken.
I’m a Giants fan but I find the Pads fans here to be far more informed than most fan bases. They continually combat misinformation with facts, which you seem to interpret as arrogance, a classic defensive response
Ah no. The interpretation of nothing statements as being factual support to their position, and then attacking people’s knowledge and intelligence for not agreeing, is arrogance. No question about it. The little Padre gangs actions were a disgrace. Not sure why there is a massive chip on their shoulders, but it absolutely exists. The evidence is all here.
but the vitriol and animus that some Pads fans showed towards the writer Acee was just over the top.
========================
It wasn’t just Acee. Any suggestion that Soto would be traded was met with tirades. One of these guys would be muting 10 posters every thread.
I wouldn’t mute you, But who other than Acee, got a link?
Not sure who is even considered the right person at this point.
===================
It doesn’t seem like there is one. If they made their decision to duck under, they won’t change their minds for any of the guys currently available.
MathTeacherSDSUAlumni6196 hours ago
Acee predicted Padres gutting payroll and financial crisis.
Padres payroll is projected to be around 200 and cbt hit around 230. That’s not gutting payroll
===============================
They were at $291M last year. If they reduce that to $230M, how is that not a “gutting”?
Joebrady, it’s certainly cutting it. Though every team has dipped under the tax in the last 3 years except the dodgers and padres. Dodgers tried to last year and failed because of the Bauer ruling.
There is no shame in carrying a tax number in the 230 millions. Not even a sure thing yet they even reset it this next year.
Think they way some talk about the padres payroll its like a they turned into the pirates or the A’s over night.
@ Joe. Are you really splitting hairs over what amounts to a game of semantics over the meaning of “gutting”? If a team spends the max they are allowed without getting penalized there is not a world where that is considered gutting payroll. I’m not surprised you get muted with comments like these.
@mlb fan this is from the padres ceo: “The local revenue generation in this market will allow us to be at the payroll level we’ll be at this year because of the support of our fans. And we’re planning to keep it sustainable for years to come.”
Doesn’t sound like an organization with financial woes to me.
Also note that Acee was not who got the CEO interview.
Right 20 other teams fans wished they had those woes. Padres and dodgers have the longest running streak of not resetting the tax.
Padres may get under this year but that’s not even a sure thing yet.
Financial woes…can’t afford a 255m payroll every year with a tax number over 270m. They don’t want to pay 40m in tax penalties again this year.
What a broke disgrace of an organization
It’s bc everyone hates on the padres bc they spend money. Hating – the American way.
Petco is an extremely hard place to play and continue to be successful year in and year out. Many reputable players like wil Myers stats plummeted when going to SD. So it takes the right person for sure and I think X is a great fit for that profile bc he doesn’t rely on the long ball to fill his stat line.
What Preller is banking on is himself when it comes to these large contracts that will almost be unmovable. He needs to continue to be one of the best franchises in identifying and developing talent- just as long as they do that – he will be able to maneuver the roster accordingly.
Very entertaining from my perspective
I agree the padres are resetting the CBT . The financial woes are DSG bankruptcy cut the rug out from under them mid season on 60MM . MLB picked up 80% last year but not this year, the Padres are now a part of the MLB TV media .Will have to wait and see how the TV revenue works out with the MLB in charge of thier rights .
Padres = Last Place
I could see last place if Darvish and/or Musgrove don’t stay healthy. They’re still better than the Rockies and maybe the Giants.
You getting high on yer own supply again, Crack…?
The most amusing part of the article “Pads woes well-documented”.
Two wrongs don’t make a right, Nick
The controlled media narrative is always interesting to me. Like they figure out how to get more clicks by twisting the truth a little bit then running w it.
When it comes to the padres – some billionaire tried to buy a ws on his way out the door, spent a billion dollars trying, and now padres are just readjusting their business strategy in the wake of that attempt. To me, that seems to be a more interesting narrative than proclaiming the padres broke and ya know, the truth.
I could list the 25 other woeful teams with lower projected payrolls in 2024, but it wouldn’t change the now well-documented mlbtr narrative.
List them
Every team other than Dodgers, Phillies, Mets, Yankees, and a couple more. We’ll see how the rest of the offseason goes. If Pads are at $200M, and if 2023 as a guide, then they will fall between top 5-7 in MLB payroll. Point is they are not broke, woeful, etc..
As things stand now. Padres are 11th in payroll for 2024. Teams below them are
Sf
Tor
Laa
Col
Kc
Min
Chw
Arz
Sea
Cin
Was
Clev
Mia
Mil
Tb
Bal
Pit
Oak
spotrac.com/mlb/payroll/2024/
Let’s see where they are in April, either way not woeful
Keep in mind that most of their contracts are long term. They’d have been at about $200M no matter what they did.
Keep in mind they just traded Soto and his salary, and won’t be paying Wacha, Snell, Martinez, Lugo, etc… They will be adding salary with trade acquisitions over next month.
Trade Kim for a cost controlled OF – Red Sox in a deal for Abreu or Rafaela who are mlb ready. Replaces Grisham and adds a few more prospects Padres could deal from.
Move cronenworth back to 2B
Resign Profar to play LF
Sign Bader to platoon with Abreu or Rafaela
Sign Greinke as #5- last year first time thru the order and second time he pitched well. So maybe 3 or 4 innings
Sign an actual 1B
So trade Kim for a platoon cf option.
Grienke is toast
Bader can’t hit
Profar isn’t even league avg but perhaps a cheap fill in guy.
Padres would better off doing nothing than making these moves.
Just sign Kiermaier, profar type, and a starter along the lines of montas or Ryu. Can do all that for around 20m. Then add a 1b/dh option like cooper, cj cron, type options.
My guess is they make a trade for a controlled cheap starter.
Padres will be fine.
Kim is a 1 year rental like Soto and probably prices himself out of SDs range next off season. A QO does nothing to help the club same way a QO for Soto did nothing to help the club in the immediate future. You can get a cost controlled CF for Kim in any deal you make take it.
Bader replaces Azocar
“Bader can’t hit”
.298/.361/.575 against lefties last year and career wise .262/.331/.494
Kiermaoer has never played 130 games
Ryu has pitched 17 games last 2 years
Greinke made 43 starts and while his overall numbers weren’t good last year
1st time thru the order hitters hit .263/.310/.357
2nd those thru they hit .261/.281/.448
He’s not “cooked” but if you can get 3-4 consistent innings out of him as a #5 he’s durable and steady.
“ Padres would better off doing nothing than making these moves.”
Lmao. Dumb. Facts say you’re wrong on many accounts
No they don’t. The facts say we would be better on 2024 doing nothing bs what you recommended.
Surely they can do none of what you said and spend the 2 and be better then you recommend.
The traded Soto because they needed the 3 to help fill out the roster. Kim is paid peanuts it’s not the same example.
Padres aren’t paying grienke to hopefully gove them 3 innings. They also can find better options if they decide to trade Kim than that.
Ryu type was an example of low cost guys they can get. I’d take my chance on him over grienke next year all day long.
Kiermaier gets hurt, so does Bader. Padres have marsee who is nearly ready who can fill in as well.
You can spend 27m, not hurt the future much and make a much better team in 2024 then you just did.
Greinke made 27 starts last year. That alone has value.
I think what tripped him up last year was “the clock”. Love watching him compete; in particular, the pitch by pitch head game/strategy within each player at bat. What a beautiful baseball mind! Many pitchers last year, of course, easily adapted to this robotic new way of pitching format. For guys like Greinke, ya know pitchers who use the mental side of the game as much as the physical to compete, suffered.
Keep the Padre infield the same as last year, Tatis in RF, and the catching position is now set.
Sign a LF, CF, and one starter, and call it a day.
Have a five-man bench with a rotating DH.
Saying starts have value is some what true but at an 87 era+ there isn’t much value in them innings. Between Avila, wardon, Vasquez and Brito. Padres have guys that can eat up innings even if it takes multiple guys to do so. They need a solid stable avg or better pitcher.
Simm – I agree. The next Lugo/Wacha/Martinez needs to be found for a solid 3 guy and SD has plenty of 5 ish guys to pick from.
I’m hoping as ST gets near and roles get filled some rebound type – Lauer / Cueto or someone in between can be found.
Really may only need it for 1/2 a season with Snelling / Mazur / Thorpe getting a shot by July.
As of now they have 2 spots open. My guess is they fill one with a proven guy and let the 5th spot be a battle between all those dudes.
If they decide to go for a top 3 rotation type guy then likely they will need to do it via trade to make it affordable. Not impossible they trade for one and sign as you said a lugo type guy and hope he pans out again.
If the Pads want to compete for a WC then they need to add a #1-3 type proven guy, like Luzardo, Burnes, etc…
I tend to agree. The market cost for any of those guys is so high. If I had to bet on it right now I’d say they don’t. Burnes is a one and done guy. Luzardo fits the need better but he is going to cost a crap ton at this point in prospects.
I and done might be okay given the 2025 rookie class
They do. Sorry to burst your bubble
The moves
1. Clear 7 more mill off the books
2. Find cheap production for multiple needs (cf, of, rh platoon of bat, back of rotation sp). Padres aren’t gonna blow all their cap space in the off season cause that’ll handicap their ability to make in season moves. They’ll keep somewhere between 10-15 mill available
3. Clears the INF issue. Padres won’t find a taker for cronenworth unless they eat cash and attach prospects. Not worth it. They’re not moving machado or bogaerts either unless they eat a huge chunk andi attach prospects.
4. Your suggestion is to pay more money for riskier investments in keirmaier and ryu each who has injury concerns. Not very smart.
Oh hey look Simm
Keirmaier is close to signing a 1 year 10 mill deal with Toronto
That’d leave Padres 17 mill to fill out rest of roster and make in season additions based on current projections
So what was that about him being cheap considering he’d take up 37% of the padres projected spending for 2024 (off season and during the season)?
Yeah. Committing 33% or more of your budget to an injury prone cf you’re hoping to be the everyday guy in his mid 30s isn’t a great use of financial resources.
I figured he would cost around 10m, sounds about right for him. This site predicts 2×10=20m for Bader. Who is just worse and also injured.
Spending 10 on kier and then 8 on a starter would have left them 9m. With being able to fill the other spots internally.
Now it’s Marsee internally or Bader/duvall/taylor/bellinger (less likely) in free agency. They could look at a trade options.
Think pitching is still their top priority. Preller has made it sound like Marsee and Merrill will be given a real chance to make the team. So he may just go with them.
This site also said KK would get 2×13 = 26mill. He got 10.5.
Bader isn’t getting 10 a year when his only value is defense and against LH pitching. He’s a platoon bat and a very good one you can get for 5 mill or less. KK can’t be relied upon to be a starter. Bader isn’t gonna be a starter he’s a 4th OF type replacing Azocar.
Anyways. Padres need to figure out CF.
Kim is a 1 year rental and a QO pick just wastes years on Tatis Bogaerts Machado etc. They need to open up 1B for an actual bat as well. Shifting Cron back to 2nd does that. Padres should have options in CF aside from Marsee and it should be a LH bat like Abreu or Rafaela or some cf who’s ready to contribute. Trading Kim and getting back a LH CF and prospects makes sense for 2024 and beyond. Cardinals also make some sense given the OF log jam. Taking a chance on Burleson or Carlson change of scenery. Cardinals would need to add more to get Kim who could sure up their ss situation.
Jobu – check out Padres top 30. Marsee was MVP of AFL and ended season at AA (22 y/o); Zavala is 19.
Both are probably coming on top 100 when the MLB guys cycle off in a few months and open up 10-15 spots.
CF isn’t a long term problem with those 2024/2025 options coming.
For the “right now” they may just have to roll with the Azocar or the guy they got for Soto or maybe some cheaper stop gap during ST.
If you can get Bader of 5m or less then he is prob worth it. Not sure you can, basically would be replacing Grisham for Bader for about the same cost. Neither add much value at the plate.
Kim is about what best in 2024, padres are better with Kim. Unless they get a haul for him. What’s best for the future it’s hard to argue that trading him isn’t the right thing to do. I just don’t see the padres pulling that trigger. They open the season in Korea and that would be a tough or move. Kim is a fan favorite and with all the negativity surrounding the team this year I doubt they want to add more. Though they have to be real with themselves when it comes to what they are going to do long term with Kim.
Lots of teams would be in on Kim if they truly made him available including the jays, giants, marlins, Red Sox and others. With his ability to play Ss/2b/3b at a gold glove level and his contract being very reasonable for next year his market would be fantastic even as a rental.
It will be interesting to see how the padres play this out. I don’t disagree with you that cronenworth needs to be moved back to second.
I get the Padres have guys coming up but what do you do when they struggle or don’t pan out. There’s no guarantee marsee or Zavala are cf of the future. Minor stats don’t guarantee mlb success. They could be but it’s good to have options and depth. Trading Kim for any guys I mentioned doesn’t preclude them from wanting any guys already here from being the cf. it ensures Padres have depth and options. They currently dont
What if Rafaela doesn’t turn out? Carlson already isn’t working out. The Padres already know that Kim is an excellent player. Why would they trade a known quality player for a low ceiling question mark?
2025 SP rotation:
Darvish
Musgrove
Luzardo
Snelling
King
Lesko
parade
For the 6+ years of control compared to 1. Cheap control at that.
Missed the point entirely Javia. The key word is options. It’s good to have depth. Also missed the fact I said Carlson and Burleson aren’t headliners. They’re change of scenery types. If you’re gonna chime in keep up at the very least man. Nobody likes repeating themselves.
Zavala and Marsee are depth pieces at this point. The Padres can trade Kim for several more random depth pieces, or they can trade him for an actual quality future starter. You think they will do the former. I think they will do the latter. We disagree. Insults not needed Jobu.
If you want to come up with an actual trade idea and run it through BTV, go for it. We can discuss it. If you just want to insult anyone who disagrees…
Azocar is also a depth piece. The Padres have 3 depth OF and 1 starter for 3-OF positions. They need an actual starter for Kim, not more depth. They can pick up depth in Spring Training by picking up other team’s cuts.
Carlson was crap in 2023. So was Burleson. The Padres don’t want or need more crap. They will only trade Kim for QUALITY.
Add Merrill to the LF mix for 2024.
Merrill is knocking on the door . He will take over short. X will play second .
Certainly possible, X is gonna move sooner or later it’s just at matter of when.
I think Merrill gets his first taste of the big leagues as a left fielder while the team gives Bogaerts another full season at short. Bogaerts will have to eventually come around to the idea that his declining range at short, coupled with the roster’s construction, will necessitate him moving to first base. In 2025, I see Machado at third, Merrill at short, Cronenworth at second and Bogaerts at first. Trading Kim right now for a left-handed top of the rotation, starting pitcher or a very good left fielder would give them a better chance in 2024. And there’s probably only a 5% chance that Kim is a Padre beyond this season anyways. Strike now.
C – my only deviation is that X has publicly stated that he is open to CF and 2b – I suggested 1b a long long time ago in 23 season with Kim going too short. To some degree I’m with you on Kim but would wait until deadline to see how it shakes out. See my other posts that I think they can get more for him then even.
Trade Kim for a cost controlled OF – Red Sox in a deal for Abreu or Rafaela who are mlb ready.
=====================
Move Bogaerts to LF.
Move Kim to SS.
Move Cro to 2nd.
Sign KK for CF.
Add two more cheap innings-eating SPs, or sign one and trade for Cease.
They can do all of that for under $33M and have a decent+ team.
Giants need to be all over Kim to pair him with Lee.
I think the Padres would take Beck & Matos for him
May be an overpay on the Giants but they have a great shot at an extension because of Lee & in the division trades are difficult to make happen.
I don’t see the padres taking that trade
Anything goes at the deadline within division but not today. Assuming Kim continues his upward trend, I don’t see the return much less at deadline than now – it could even be more considering: (1) Kim shows more upward offense; (2) injuries; (3) competitive bidding at deadline that doesn’t really exist now.
That and if they move him it’s hard to see it being to the giants. The giants would need to seriously outbid other teams. Kim his a great market being he can play 2b, SS at a gold glove level and is cheap. Plus he is probably easier to extend than say a boras client.
He loves it in San Diego and the padres extending him still isn’t out of the question. Though they likely would need to move cronenworth to do so.
Simm – and possibly Merrill (unless he can play LF). I’m liking the Merrill option at SS in 25 over the tensing Kim at 15-20/year.
My hope is that we see both Kim and Merrill for a few months and thst both thrive. That makes a deadline deal for Kim more palatable.
I hope Merrill is not the next TT or CJ narrative in SD. Let’s keep this one and roll with him.
Yeah Merrill is interesting. You can argue they can just replace Kim with Merrill later this year or next. They could move Merrill to the outfield or they could trade him.
Problem with Merrill replacing Kim is then they still have cronenworth out of position unless he is traded. In what 3 years they probably move Xander of short but they are about to sign Vries who is an international SS prospect who people say is the best one since wander Franco. So he maybe the replacement for Xander when he moves off short.
I think Cro can become the super utility / DH / 1b guy when that happens though to eliminate that part of the problem.
Given they had Merrill make starts last year at SS, 2b, 1b and LF that maybe the idea to at least get Merrill some at bats next year if everyone stays.
Of course that’s if he has a good enough spring to make the team and isn’t traded. I wouldn’t rule out the padres trading him for a young controllable starter.
Lots of directions the padres can go from trading, Kim, cronenworth, Merrill combination of them or none of them at all.
I definitely think some prospect capital will be spent on a controllable starter – just hope it’s not from their 1-6.
Right now, LF project is probably Merrill’s to lose – they need to see him and well, they do t really have an mlb LFer on the roster today so there is that!
People are suggesting Profar for cheap – I’d say Merrill for cheaper is a better shot.
Right now I have Marsee and CF and Merrill in LF. That will likely change some but it’s not the worse possible outcome. They need lefty bats and they both are that.
Profar for me is either a one year fill on guy or better yet a in case a guy like Merrill needs more time in the minors.
This is why I like adding Kiermaier and Profar. Leaves LF open for either Maraee or Merrill to win during spring and if neither do then Profar is the cheap security blanket.
I think Marsee is a few months away but a possible mid season add if needed.
Merrill is projected a little ahead so go with him at LF, the Yankee prospect or Azocar can start off at CF if theh don’t add. Save the money on those other basically league average guys and hold it for possible trade deadline move if they are in WC contention. The overall goal still needs to be to stay under CBT for “next year signing”.
Idk marsee is older and played in aa as well last year.
Marsee is older but farther behind in milb. SD top 30 has him at 2025 projected ETA after he played in AFL. I think he spent most of the year at LE even though he did finish at AA.
Azocar allows Marsee to spend 60-90 days in AA for seasoning.
Hey, I’m all for any prospect earning a spot in ST and coming up sooner though.
Then there is 19 year old Zavala a year behind Marsee.
Then there’s Head who might pass Zavala on the charts. Then there’s Bush Jr, who could also make a quick jump.
Reds having trouble getting FA SP to sign a reasonable contract to pitch in GABP. Relievers?- maybe not as much. Hader probably too much for Reds budget and not interested in a Chapman or Stephenson reunion, but Hicks, Moore. Juinis, etc may be doable. Upgrading 50-70 leveraged innings would be a big help. If Reds run into SP trouble during 2024 season, they have the quality prospects to pry a TOR sp from a noncontending team- when they have to.
I think lodolo is that guy. Lots of high end lefties get transitioned into back end pieces when starting doesn’t work itself out. He would hader 2.0 and reds could adjust their 8/9 innings for matchup purposes
Greene is that TOR. I rather see reds keep all their prospect capitol and sign giolito to eat a 180 innings next season. Like 3/75 mil, give him a couple opt outs w a potential 4th year and a buyout.
Then flip india for an upcoming 2/3A pitcher like Richard Fitts from Boston
Preller already said he wants to go into spring training giving some of the young minor leaguers a shot at the roster (Marsee and Merril mentioned by name). I think he is banking on one or more of them hopefully breaking with the team out of camp.
That said a lot of fans of other teams would love to have the Padres’ “financial woes”. Trying to duck under the CBT doesn’t exactly scream financial woes. They just stopped spending like a drunken Sailor they must be broke and bankrupt.
Padres = punting in 2024. Not seeing anything otherwise.
From MLTR Top 50 FA , predict who will be next 4 FA signings
1. M Stroman. 2. Y Rodriguez. 3. T Hernendez. 4. L. Giolito
Rodriguez seems like a good next 4 as does hernendez. I’ll go with imanaga and Hoskins as my other two.
The dodgers reset their CBT they’re geniuses….the Padres do it they’re broke.
The Padres sign a star till the age of 41 they’re idiots…the dodgers do it they’re geniuses.
The dodgers let Trea Turner and Cody Bellinger go they’re geniuses….the Padres trade Soto…they’re broke.
The dodger loving,double standard, is ridiculous.
The Dodgers sign Bauer they’re victims, the Padres trade for Clevinger they’re fools. Etc…
mrpadre19-The Padres sign a star till the age of 41 they’re idiots…the dodgers do it they’re geniuses.
=========================
Which guys did the Dodgers sign until age 41?
The dodger loving,double standard, is ridiculous.
========================
I’d also add that double-standards usually exist for a reason. The LAD have come in 1st for so long as I can remember, sans one year with 106 wins. They will get the benefit of the doubt.
Racism also exists for a reason. There is never justification for a double standard
Of course there is. Some people do exceptional work. They get away with more stuff. And they should. Atl, Hou, and LAD have had long records of success. Their GMs will get the benefit of the doubt..
So if the LA and SD do similar things, folks are more likely to assume that Friedman is correct.
Now, who are all these 41 year olds that LA is signing.
That’s not what double standard means
Any more moves by the M’s will also be on the cheap side, assuming we believe the Root Sports issues. I don’t see J&J going for some top end pricey talent. Sad but true.
why in the world is Dave Dombrowski isn’t doing anything of note with our bullpen. we might have had overall good numbers at the end of the year but is there any really die hard Philly fan that watched every game out there last year that was truly confident in our Bullpen on a nightly basis?
currently this team isn’t good enough to win a World Series we need improvements and have our biggest off-season move is just reciting Aaron Nola while the Braves have got better the Dodgers are obviously the team to beat my opinion that was a bridge and we got to do something to keep up with the Joneses
How did the braves get better?
@simm
If the Braves have gotten better it hasn’t been by much. The good thing for them is they haven’t lost anyone important though. Kelenic is questionable (In my opinion.) But he at least has upside potential (at least more upside potential than Rosario.) I like the Reynaldo Lopez signing, his stuff intrigues me. But other than a starting pitcher what holes do they really need to fill? Also I wouldn’t worry about DD, there is still plenty of time in the off-season and like the Braves they really don’t have too many holes to fill, they could use a closer but I wouldn’t put a Josh Hader signing past them. They have made deep playoff runs the past two seasons so again, not too much to do.
I find it funny that this ‘cut and paste’ job that has been posted fmsince the eend of the season. Will payroll come down…yes. Is Preller done shaping this roster…nope. I’m glad that they may finally have to use homegrown talent…
The Mariners have jettisoned three players with extremely high strikeout rates and “chase” rates (Kelenic, Suarez, T. Hernandez), and replaced them with players with far lower strikeout rates and chase rates and far better on-base percentages.
The M’s also have added youth and power in Luis Urias at 3B (age 26) who came into the league at 21, improved from 2018 to 2019 to 2020 to 2021, then was hurt for a good part of the last two years. If he’s healthy, he’s a 20-homer guy. A look at his minor league numbers gives a pretty good hint at what might be a surprising upside: .302 BA/.393 OBP..
Josh Rojas (also in his prime at age 29) and Jose Caballero (in his prime at age 27) make a good left/right combination at 2B, (.250 BA/.335 OBP combined at ML level) with lower 23% strikeout rates. However, their minor league numbers hint at significant upside as well, with Rojas at .288/.371 and Caballero at .283/.395. Again, some potentially surprising upside.
The addition of Mitch Garver at (likely permanent) DH is an all-around improvement from Mike Ford, no question there: Garver has higher BA, higher OBP, equal or better power, lower chase rate, AND slightly lower strikeout rate.
And while many pundits are lamenting the M’s current outfield (minus Kelenick and T. Hernandez), a closer look suggests that Dominic Canzone, picked up in trade from Arizona, has substantial upside.
In fact, Canzone’s minor league numbers were superior to Kelenic, with career minor league stats at .310 BA, .377 OBP, .933 OPS. And Canzone’s first major league peek in 2023 resulted in a BA higher by over 20 points than Kelenic’s first year. And Canzone, too, is just entering his prime at age 26. He, too, is a 20 homer guy. And frankly, he’s far more composed and in command of his emotions than Kelenic (that being said, Kelenic may yet be a star, but the point is, in the present, Canzone is likely very adequate replacement with some nice upside).
Given the above potential combined with a likely bounce-back year by Ty France at 1B, the M’s infield, including catcher and shortstop, appears reasonably solid, as does the outfield with the exception of the T. Hernandez “empty” space….he of the “plus 30% strikeout rate” and low .305 OBP in 2023. But the bigger number of concern is the 25-30 HR power that’s left the building.
Not every one of the players (named and unnamed) on the M’s roster is likely to live up to such optimistic expectations, of course. But it’s clear that potential upside IS there. And if the M’s happen to be on-target with their younger additions of Rojas, Caballero,, Urias, and Canzone and their upside add of Mitch Garver, the chances of them moving guys over and getting them in in 2024 are much improved. And IF they fill the T. Hernandez hole with some decent power (and a little speed, if possible), the prediction here is that they will be in the thick of it in 2024. Remember, their pitching is some of the some of the best in baseball.
Right – I like Seattle as my AL team. I don’t know the details but as a long time Padres fan, I’ll speak to what I know.
Urias = bust. He didn’t hit like his minor league numbers in any year. He was supposed to pair with Tatis as a combo for years to come and flopped. Some say it’s personality / attitude – I don’t know.
France – loved the guy as a SD prospect and hated to see him gone but he was blocked (pre DH) so prospects get traded. I hope he bounces back but really, he has declined steadily each year so his bounce back would be from his 1st ML season a few years ago. Not the best to bet on but wish him the best.
I’ve followed these 2 and many more SD prospects because I watched them develop and had the typical high hopes / dreams that lost fans have for their team’s prospects.
Agreed, Rick! I think removing Suarez, Hernandez, Ford and Kelenic from the lineup is addition by subtraction, as long as the M’s replace them with guys who have good OBP and don’t chase so much. Our high-K guys killed a lot of rallies last year. At this point in their development, I also like Canzone over Kelenic. Things aren’t as bad as they might seem, given the strength of the pitching. OTOH, I still hope they’ll sign Snell, then trade for Arozarena and/or Paredes from the pitching surplus. Still some work to do, anyway.
Slotthcliff is right on. Sign Snell (who is begging to come home and if he uses driveline, can improve on his walk rate), trade for Arozarena and, if possible, trade for Ha-Song Kim to move Rojas to 3B. Somehow, divest the team of its 37 middling middle infielders who hit .180 and still swing for the fences (looking at you, Dylan Moore). Not sold on Urias – to me, he’s a placeholder.
Miller for Kim and Iriarte? Make an offer. I’m sure the Padres would listen.
Not sold on Iriarte, but if he has the makings of a middle inning relief option instead of starting, it’s not a bad deal. But I’d rather the Ms included Urias to get a LH higher RP prospect
Unfortunately the Padres don’t have any higher ranked relief pitching prospects. Iriarte is borderline top 100, but it will be up the the GMs anyways.
Also, I’m pretty sure the Padres don’t want Urias back.
Urias. POS autocorrect.
Iriarte is a beast! I saw him pitch at Elsinore a couple of years ago and was amazed at his velocity. I don’t think the Padres will move him as he could actually contribute this year as a middle inning guy. In my opinion, he’s a part of the 2025 starting rotation.
I agree, but I’m sure that Miller would be tempting to the Padres.
Savannah Bananas legend Cade Marlowe in the outfield!
I keep looking and looking and can find no articles about the Padres so called financial woes that don’t refer to or link back to the Kevin Acee article.
There are other teams that have come out and said they are going to have to cut back on payroll, but we are not seeing endless mentions of their financial situations. Only the Padres.
Which is strange to me since the Padres new control guy, the deceased owners brother Tom who is also a minority partner in the team, the CEO, and the GM have not said they are having issues. In fact they have all said they would keep operating the team the same way they did under Peter Seidler with a goal of “putting a championship level team on the field”.
Those words I put in quotation marks are what we keep hearing and reading from the people making the decisions but somehow its “well documented” that the opposite is true? Its really starting to bug me and I’m not a Padres in any way, shape, or form. I can’t imagine how angry Padres fans must be at this site and other publications for endlessly repeating that one writer but not what the ownership and front office has said over and over.
Ok. Rant over.
Hope you all had a great holiday season.
Pitchers and catchers report in 50 days.
Baseball – yep, right there with you. See my rants above on the X contract which is the same situation only more pointed at the fans than the writers.
Sure, you keep bringing up facts, and that’s fine and all, but facts aside, and all evidence to the contrary, they are woefully broke, because someone somewhere once said that and now no amount of clarification can change my mind. Happy Holidays
Maybe the authors on here are responding to all the unjustified criticism they got originally by trolling them. Fair enough too.
More likely the opposite. Regardless, it’s the very job of a journalist to be objective. Fans are allowed to be fans, and I’m sure you would agree with that, no?
Justify it however you want.
The intensity of it was farked up.
Dipoto’s biggest FA hitter signing since taking over in seattle. The fact that it’s 2/$12 isn’t saying much
Some long winded comments on this thread
2/$24
That’s why MLB-R posts articles on the RS and SDP.. It’s guaranteed to elicit 100s of responses.
Maybe Machado can get some time in at 1B/DH to help preserve him and keep him off the DL?
Bring up the youth. It’s the next set coming in. A cool buzz and a tasty wave and we’re fine…