Guardians righty Shane Bieber is one of the more prominent names on the offseason trade market, with the Cubs and Reds among the many teams to check in thus far. Bieber is slated to become a free agent next offseason and projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz to earn $12.2MM this coming season, giving him the look of an affordable one-year rental for a team on the lookout for rotation upgrades. However, Jon Heyman of the New York Post writes that Bieber is at least open to the idea of signing an extension with a team that acquires him. Presumably, that’d mean he’s open to a long-term deal in Cleveland as well, although it’s not clear that the generally frugal Guardians would be amenable to that after already hammering out nine-figure extensions with Jose Ramirez and Andres Gimenez in recent years.
One could argue that it’s natural for Bieber to take this approach, given that he missed more than two months late in the 2023 season with elbow inflammation. He made it back to the mound and looked healthy in a pair of late-season starts, but he’s seen his velocity dip by about three miles per hour since its peak and has a number of red flags in his profile, including strikeout, walk, swinging-strike, chase and ground-ball rates that have all trended in the wrong direction. There’s some logic to taking the risk-averse approach and locking in a long-term deal this offseason.
On the other hand, it’s far more common for players to spurn extension overtures at this stage of their original club control window — particularly following a trade. Players often want to get a feel for their new organization (coaching staff, teammates, competitive outlook).
Furthermore, while Bieber might not command the type of deal he once looked destined for when he was taking home AL Cy Young honors in 2020, he’s still clearly a talented pitcher. The market for even third/fourth starters has progressed over the past couple years, too, evidenced by contracts like the four-year deals awarded to Taijuan Walker ($72MM) and Jameson Taillon ($68MM). Bieber is only 28 (29 in May) and would turn 30 in the first year of a theoretical free-agent deal (or extension). With any form of bounceback season in terms of health, if not performance, he’d have a case for at least a four-year deal.
It’s rare, although not unprecedented for teams to grant extension windows as a conditional element of a trade. Most recently, the Reds simultaneously acquired and extended Sonny Gray in a trade with the Yankees, although that was four years ago. More likely is a scenario where Bieber is simply traded to another club and the two parties spend the remainder of the offseason discussing a potential long-term deal.
Bieber’s openness to an extension might improve his trade value a bit, but one would imagine that openness would ultimately depend on where he’s traded. Using a pair of teams to which he’s already been connected, it’s easier to see a big-payroll team like the Cubs pony up on a long-term pact than it would be a smaller-payroll club like the Reds, who’ve shied away from long-term deals over the past few offseasons. Cincinnati did extend Hunter Greene, but was was a pre-arb deal that isn’t really comparable to Bieber when he’s at five-plus years of service.
While it’s interesting to hear that any prominent player who’s only a year from the open market is amenable to forgoing that right, it’s simultaneously difficult to imagine it happening. Bieber made only two starts in his return from that months-long stay on the injured list, which isn’t much for a new club to go off of when weighing whether to sign him for on a long-term arrangement. From Bieber’s vantage point, it’d be a surprise to see him sign for anything less than those aforementioned Taillon and Walker deals, given his track record. Prior to the 2023 season, he looked like a candidate for a $100MM+ deal in free agency.
The 2023 season tells another story, though. Bieber’s 3.80 ERA, 20.1% strikeout rate, 6.4% walk rate, 47.2% grounder rate, 91.6 mph average fastball and career-low swinging-strike and chase rates (10.5% and 30.6%) all have the look of a mid-rotation arm rather than an ace and are are all reasons to exercise caution. An uptick in velocity or reversal of course in some combination of those declining rate stats next season would go a long ways toward bolstering his stock. Perhaps Bieber and a new team (or the Guardians themselves) could find some kind of middle ground, but his recent injury troubles — he also missed two months with a shoulder strain in 2021 — and diminished performance might make it particularly difficult to find a middle ground.
Joel P
I think it would make sense for both sides that Bieber shows that he’s healthy. But I guess an extension could assume some of that risk.
Bieber is an exciting option for teams that want an ace and don’t want to commit the dollars and years for one.
Roughly something like the Nola contract seems like a fair price for an extension. But again perhaps it makes sense to wait for both sides.
GASoxFan
No way is Bieber worth inking to a 7 yr deal, let alone a good 170m right now.
Joel P
Hey Nola just came off a rather pedestrian year. And he wasn’t all that great in 2021 either. Bieber is also younger.
Big time risk but if Bieber pitches like 2022 Bieber in 2024 he will cost more than that.
revolver
That’s crazy talk
Joel P
What is crazy talk?
The first thing I said is I think it makes sense for both sides to wait. I was just saying what I think a long term extension would look like if he signed one.
Bieber is a really good pitcher.
jbryant0693
Bieber is no Ace. In 3 years, his velo has dipped from 94.3 (2020) to 91.6. He’s now a soft tosser and a shadow of his former self. He’s knows the path he is on, and he wants long term security before everyone else realizes he is Kluber 2.0
Joel P
Is 91.6 really low or is 94.3 really high?
I am tired of people saying he declined from his 2020 season. When you are the best you can’t do anything but decline. That’s nonsense to use his success against him.
GASoxFan
Here is a good article about FB speeds:
baseballamerica.com/stories/the-measure-of-a-fastball-has-changed-over-the-years/
In short, if you’re registering 91.6 in 2023, yes, your pretty slow and well below the average.
BrianStrowman9
94.3 is not “really high”
You’re choosing to read it as “he declined from 2020”
He’s declined. Period. Not just from 2020.
Joel P
That article talks about relievers. Bieber is a starter.
What is a STARTERS average fastball velocity? And did all his other pitches drop off or just the fastball?
Perhaps it’s because my teams pitching sucked last year but 91.6 average seems decent to me. I am sure there are good pitchers who pitch at that velocity. Sonny Gray just got 25 million a year how hard does he throw?
Joel P
It is just from 2020 because if you don’t start at 2020 you can’t say he declined because he won the Cy Young in 2020.
He was hurt in both 2021 and 2023. In 2022 he was really good top 10 Cy Young.
Now are you saying he didn’t earn those CY Young votes in 2022?
GASoxFan
Read everything. It covers everyone. Possibly the most important part is also about improving the technology and more accurately measuring pitch speed, amd that earlier technology read slower than newer.
GASoxFan
2020 was an aberration that isn’t a good indication for anyone, good or bad.
No ST. Hitters didn’t ramp up properly. Pitchers could, in theory, practice command better but most didn’t because risk of injury without access to trainers and rehab. Short samples.
When it comes to talent evaluation and player projection, 2020 results should be ignored for everyone.
norcalguardiansfan
That was a really interesting article, GASox. I remember seeing a pic of Bob Feller throwing into a 40’s-era radar machine that was mounted right in front of home plate and they measured his fastball at something like 98. (The story is that he did this without warming up, BTW.) That would put his FB at something like 105 or 106 coming out of his hand. Whoosh!
GASoxFan
Norcal- it’s been in my mind a bit lately since I’ve been in a lot of threads with conversations concerning the max-effort style of pitching these days, poor mechanics included, and, comparing how older guys did things, and, the lower speeds associated with them.
norcalguardiansfan
I think there was a greater variation in velocity back in the day. I remember watching Ross Grimsley at the end of his career and he couldn’t have been pitching harder than about 80 or 85, but his movement drove people crazy. Today that would never be allowed because it goes against the orthodoxy. I bet old timers like me could name a bunch of junkball pitchers who got by on guile and movement.
On the other hand, obviously there were people who could really bring it. I remember hearing Feller talk about how he would alter his effort depending on who he was facing. No need to stress your arm if you are facing someone you can get out with something soft. I don’t think those guys – the ones you can get out without trying too hard – can make the majors these days.
Joel P
Pitch speed doesn’t equal success.
Joel P
So now his Cy Young doesn’t count? Lol ok.
GASoxFan
Nothing personal to him, I say that about every player, good performance or bad.
2020 is an asterisk year. His name will be in the books, and he got a shiny trinket. But 2020 accomplishments are like you being 50% below par after 3 holes of golf. Doesn’t mean you’re cut out to be a PGA star and would win the Masters.
Joel P
Look at Biebers CAREER stats. They are really really good. As good as just about anyone could possibly be at his age. He’s been excellent for every year except 2023 and he wasn’t bad in 2023.
Bieber is a great pitcher. This velocity drip stuff is nonsense. You are just digging for stats trying to find one that says he’s not as good as he is.
vtadave
yeah he’s still declined though
Joel P
He was hurt in both 2021 and 2023. It’s a 1 year commitment for anyone who trades for them unless the team wants to make it longer. That’s worth the risk. There is no guarantee Bieber will bounce back. No pitcher is a guarantee but if you need an ace in 2024 and don’t want to commit years and dollars trying to get one he’s a good choice.
iverbure
You don’t pay pitchers for their career stats, you pay for what they’re going to do.
debubba
I wonder though, in 2020, you saw Bieber’s fastball at his all time high. You also saw Zach Pleasac have his best fastball. He never again touched sports like that while with the Guards…
debubba
Cleveland will not find what they are looking for, hold him until the trade deadline and if he shows value, they offload. If not they keep him the remainder of the year and out a qualifying offer on him. This is whether they’re in the race or not.
Thank_God_Im_Not_Tim_Dierkes
91.6 is low compared to the average pitcher which is closer to 92-93 in the modern game. Even just 10 years ago it would’ve been solid, but not anymore.
BrianStrowman9
I’m not sure Bieber is a qualifying offer lock from the Guards. I’d be shocked if he’s still around past the deadline.
OIC2021
Sure he’s open NOW, after he got hurt. The Guardians approached him before the start of last year and he thumbed his nose at Dolan. Hey Shane, you are no Jose Ramirez! Have fun pitching elsewhere next year
Joel P
Bieber was coming off an excellent season in 2022. The Guardians probably lowballed him because that’s the only way they sign top players and he said no. So what?
OIC2021
He’s a traitor
Joel P
Traitor lol. He’s still on the team….
Thank_God_Im_Not_Tim_Dierkes
If I hear a guy is willing to talk extension without even knowing where he’s going. I’m thinking he knows something bad that should be considered a deterrent for acquiring him. I think he already has been playing through an injury to get to free agency or he knows his arm is about to fall off and wants to get paid before it happens. I mean, he’s essentially saying he’d consider an extension in Colorado or with the toxic Marlins. That just seems sketchy. However, considering how hard pitching is to get in Colorado, they would be well served to test his willingness to extend. Maybe even get the Johan Santana extension window option.
PiratesFan1981
Pirates type of addition, hence Rich Hill
CardsFan57
I’m sure Bieber is open to an extension given his TJ surgery is coming soon.
Wire to wire 2024
I chortled
sfes
When a team like the Guards or Rays trades a player like this, buyer beware.
Joel P
Rays traded Snell. I think he just won a Cy Young.
CardsFan57
I said this because Bieber has the telltale elbow and forearm issues. It’s probably why his velocity has dipped. He’ll probably be fine once he recovers from surgery.
Joel P
If he has TJ and goes back to his old self he will earn the money most likely. If you sign him now you are getting a discount based on injury concerns and his 2023 drop in performance.
BrianStrowman9
The Aaron nola contract is not a discount in anyway shape or form. If he pitches like 2022–he’s no lock for an Aaron Nola deal. If he magically returns to 2020 Shane Bieber—he’ll get Aaron nola money.
I’d bet if you offered him $100MM he’d accept immediately.
Rsox
Snell was getting expensive through arbitration and his YouTube rant about “i got to get mine” did not sit well with the Rays organization.
Depending on the return trading Bieber may be seen as a waiving the white flag on 2024 type move as they already traded Civale and Quantrill and cut Plesac. While Bibee was solid and Gavin Williams looked promising who knows where McKenzie is health wise. If the team wants to contend they may need to keep Bieber and Clase
BrianStrowman9
Quantrill and Plesac were hot garbage that have been trending down. Civale was traded for their next 1B. I think they’re gearing up for the next few years to go on a run. Cleveland doesn’t look at a single year.
They also believe they can keep developing starters. Hard to argue with their track record.
Joel P
I would say Snell winning last years Cy Young kinda defeats the idea that they always trade guys at the right time.
Wouldn’t you?
Boxscore
Who are you Biebers agent?
Rsox
Drew Rosenhaus
PutPeteinthehall
Except when it comes to World Series Championships…….
Thank_God_Im_Not_Tim_Dierkes
Snell also has only managed 130 IP in those two Cy Young campaigns, which comprises 6 full seasons, a late call-up in 2016 and a strike shortened season in 2020. Meaning if you want to squint you could say you’re either gonna get some Ohtani level production for 130 IP or he’ll surprise you and give you the Robbie Ray Cy Young season. Seriously though he hit 107 inning in 2019 and the other three normal seasons he was right at 128-129 IP. Consistency, yeah!
If the Mariners could get Ohtani and Yamamoto, it would be fun for them to also sign Snell, so in 2025 and beyond, they could just run a 6-man rotation which would seem to help those three (NPB uses 6-man, health, etc.). For all those going, how are you going to afford that?!
Trade Gonzales ($12M), France ($7M), and Urias ($5M), saving $24M covering Yamamoto’s annual salary ($25M x 7 or 8 years). Not paying Teoscar ($14M), Suarez ($11M), Wong ($10M), or Flexen ($8M) covers Ohtani’s contract ($43M/year x 10 seasons). While trading Gilbert ($5M) and figuring an increase in payroll (only spent $125M last year) should cover Snell ($20M/year x 6 seasons), arbitration players, salary increases, and adding a couple cost controlled bats like Bryan Reynolds ($10.25M)? Ke’Bryan Hayes ($7M)? and/or Brent Rooker ($800K)? Still probably well short of $200M while selling roughly 2.7 million tickets sold, good for 10th highest attendance in baseball.
BrianStrowman9
Guards don’t miss very often on cashing out their pitchers at the right time.
Mike Clevinger 2.0.
Joel P
He would instantly be the ace of the Orioles. But hey Orioles don’t need aces…..
BrianStrowman9
Kyle Bradish is a better pitcher than him. & it won’t surprise me in the slightest when G-Rod surpasses him.
It’s not 2020 anymore.
Joel P
Sure in an injury filled year for Bieber Kyle Bradish was better. Thinking that’s going to happen again is ridiculous. But hey good luck with Bradish and Kremer with his man bun lol.
BrianStrowman9
Yep. I hope your Cardinals value Bieber like a #1 starter and give up that kind of value so you can watch your “ace” every start.
Chrome 8550
Guardians could use Santander from the orioles for power hitter. Trade straight up for bieber. Both on one year deals
BrianStrowman9
If only CLE protected Santander in the rule 5 draft all those years ago.
But yeah I mean it’s a fair value swap. Mid rotation pitcher for a starting caliber OF’er w/ pop. 2 rentals. It would free up playing time for Kjerstad also.
All the being said, I doubt Elias is in on Bieber. I don’t see a team with a strong analytics dept pulling the trigger on him.
Honestly, if he’s open to an extension—The Rockies seem like a team who would do it. They don’t do what any other organization does and can’t get FA SP’s to go there. They’ll sell the move as a getting a former Cy Young winner to the fans. Doesn’t make a ton of sense but that’s the kind of move they’d make.
Rsox
Guardians need a bat in the OF. Hays for Bieber straight up, who says no?
Subatomicbunt
Open to an extension and more $$$??? That is effing WILD!!!! To think someone would want to become richer is absurd!!! Very noble man Bieber is… I would’t ever have the to audacity to say such mealy mouth BS like that. “Open” to an extension. Betcha are buddy…betcha are..
dixoncayne
Well, he could get healthy and establish himself as a top pitcher again and then make way more as a free agent in 2025.
Subatomicbunt
So how much $$ would his team underpay him at this juncture since he isn’t re-established yet as a top pitcher? 2mil a year? 5 mil? 10? Just curious.
rondon
Even if he’s back in good health, it seems pretty risky for an acquiring team to extend him right now.
Subatomicbunt
“Following a potential potential potential trade.”
Champ world champion Texas Rangers
Ezekiel Duran for Shane Bieber? Rangers can add some throw ins but this isn’t far off.
dixoncayne
No
Champ world champion Texas Rangers
They already said Bieber is not worth that much. They said they would be lucky to get your teams top 3 prospect in return. Duran was just a top 100 prospect and hit 276. 14 homers
angelsbroncosfan
Buyer beware
showmebb
The most over-valued trade candidate on these forums: recent elbow troubles, diminished performance, one year left before FA…though this is his way of increasing the chances of a trade.
Joel P
I would take Bieber and his 13 million or so salary over Glasnow and his 25 million dollar salary all day any day.
Cease supposedly has a ton if trade value coming off a subpar year.
Bieber is a good pitcher. This nonsense about him declining since 2020 people have been saying lately is total stat twisting garbage. He was insanely good in 2020 he was never going to improve on that. But he’s still good his ERA and FIP were both under 3 in 2022. He’s a health risk sure but so are lots of pitchers.
And who exactly is over rating him????
jbryant0693
Bieber ’22 vs ’23
exit velo: 89.9/91.6
hard hit % 43.1/47.8
k% last 4 years
41.1/33.1/25.0/20.1
xSlg last 4 year
.319/.385/.386/.446
If you can read these stats, you can see he’s declining year over year over year over year, and his rate of decline accelerated in ’23 over ’22.
Glad to be of service.
BrianStrowman9
@jbryant
lol. You’re barking up the wrong tree here. Joel will claim he’s an ace until the 2024 games are played. But he might claim he’s injured if the stats aren’t there yet again.
padrepapi
Those are back of the the rotation numbers. Dude’s arm looks poised for a long absence in the near future.
When Cle is ready to trade a starter you better think twice before giving up anything good.
Bieber will likely be joining Clevinger and Kluber in that same bucket of disappointment (for acquiring team).
BrianStrowman9
Carrasco fits in that bucket too.
A'sfaninLondonUK
@Brian.
It is a very big bucket with more room to spare. It’s got a mezzanine and a balcony…
solaris602
If CLE keeps him they aren’t extending him. They’ll let him walk for nothing after next year before even considering that. They should just package him with Clase and get 2 solid OFs in return.
Joel P
I was hoping the Cardinals traded for Bieber but with all their recent signings it doesn’t make sense anymore. Carlson and Burleson for Bieber could have worked out. Carlson is a very good for for the Guardians. I wouldn’t mind a Carlson for Karinchal deal at this point but Cleveland would have to add a bit more.
hockeyjohn
Carlson has not been good the last two years and is always injured. Burleson is another left-handed platoon hitter that is not a need for Cleveland.
Rsox
If Cleveland keeps him and he is performing and they are out of they’ll flip him at the deadline and possibly get more in return than they may get now. It’s all a crapshoot either way
solaris602
I agree, and all they can do is pray Bieber is back to form in the first half. The problem from the standpoint of the fan base is we know the FO isn’t signing any free agents, and if they don’t trade for a righty corner OF who drives in runs this winter, they’ll just leave that problem to fix itself (which it never does), and they’ll have to sell in July primarily for that reason.
titanic struggle
Don’t do it Nick Krall. Tha5 elbow is gonna pop in ’24… #bringbackbauer
norcalguardiansfan
As with the Clase rumor, I’m skeptical. I think this is just an agent hoping someone will bite.
As much as I have loved watching Bieber pitch during his career, there is no way I’d give him an extension following the year he had. However, if it means the Guardians can get more for him – sell that extension, Biebs!
Joel P
The way i read it this is just a way to tell teams Bieber is available for trade. Odds are the new team won’t give him an extension but who knows maybe they would. But I think it’s more about saying hey Bieber is available.
solaris602
Yeah, if the whole extension thing is just to get attention, that’s fine. The FO knows they got lucky Bieber didn’t need TJ last year. I don’t think they’ll dodge that bullet a second time if he reports tightness in his forearm early in 2024. I’d send him to STL for just O’Neill.
Joel P
I would have been OK with Carlson and ONeill both but I think that ship has sailed unfortunately.
Pitchers are risky. They get hurt. It’s the nature of the business.
hockeyjohn
I am ok with the Cardinals keeping Carlson and O’Neil. As a Guardian fan, I have no interest in either player.
Big whiffa
It’s def worth noting if he’s open to an extension. That means something to teams who struggle signing free agents like reds. And the way I take it is that if he’s willing to sign an extension then he’s not looking for market value. So 4 yes 80 mil. He’s a pretty safe investment for that contract.
He’s always been a bit of a soft ball pitcher. So I wouldn’t get to caught up on 1 yr drop in velo
BrianStrowman9
2 year consistency in his velo. 91.3mph average. That’s just his velocity.
bravesfan
Welp, that settles it…. He’ll be a brave lol
rememberthecoop
There is no way I sign this guy. No one talks about wanting to sign with any team that acquires him like this unless he’s concerned about injury.
Citizen1
This headline is confusing. Did Bieber trade himself to another team and sign an extension?
DugoutJester
Kids a bust imho
DugoutJester
All his numbers are trending the wrong way since then? He has experienced injuries ever since? His velo has dipped ever since? Shall I explain more, or should I provide examples of other pitchers whos trajectory run parallel? His FIP has steadily increased since then. His WHIP has steadily increased since then. His H9 has steadily increased since then.
He’ll be essentially 29 opening day. I personally do not see this trajectory turning around as he enters 30.
Has he had a FEW good years, sure. Do I see longevity with him, absolutely not. Do I think there is a reason every GM is exercising caution, yes, yes I do…
Sorry if I hurt your feelings using the adjective “bust”, but his value has dropped similar to our current economy, and there is a reason. But yea, I’m sure the kids elbow is just fine *rolls eyes*
DugoutJester
Ill add more, as posted by jbryant0693;
Bieber ’22 vs ’23
exit velo: 89.9/91.6
hard hit % 43.1/47.8
k% last 4 years
41.1/33.1/25.0/20.1
xSlg last 4 year
.319/.385/.386/.446
Yea, kids on a fantastic trajectory…definitely not entering bust status with that fragile elbow… *rolls eyes*. Sorry, but your boy is spiraling *shrug*.
Now, shall we take a look at the googled definition? Yes we shall!
“In the context of professional sports, a “bust” is a term used to describe a player who fails to live up to expectations, often due to poor performance or injury.” I would argue after his CY Young there was indeed “hype” surrounding Bieber and certain expectations, expectations that I doubt we will ever see from him again… Just because he didn’t establish himself after being drafted does not mean he never garnered hype, because he did. Three years ago he would have warranted a haul, regardless of his AAV. Now, not so much.
DugoutJester
TLTR but thanks
DugoutJester
Guy, by your metrics we should consider there was never any hype around Tom Brady… Use your noggin a little slug.
DugoutJester
Get back on your bus and throw your helmet on. Done arguing with stupid. *hits mute*
Old York
Shane Bieber trajectory is looking a bit like Kluber’s. It might be time to sell high on him.
His kwERA & GBkwERA are trending upwards.
kwERA GBkwERA
3.05 & 2.91
2.34 & 2.29
1.32 1.23
2.41 2.36
2.94 2.77
3.76 3.57
His career numbers are: 2.73 & 2.62
Maddux’sMastery
I knew a few pitchers who made a great career throwing 91 mph. That doesn’t concern me as much as injury risk.
chemfinancing
SHANE BIEBER SUCKS AND WILL HAVE A TERRIBLE YEAR NO MATTER WHERE HE GOES!
Goin' to Sheetz
There you go, Orioles. Get him and extend him.
tomyo10
Bieber is still a helluva pitcher. Maybe not a dominant number one, but easily a 2 or 3. He has lost some velo, but he knows how to pitch. He would help every other team.
Don’t forget, if he didn’t get hurt last year, he’d already be gone.
Enregistre
“Too” should never have a comma before it, Steve. This is archaic.
Frankie16
I know it won’t happen but if I’m the Mets I’m making a move for him and signing him to a 4-5 yr ext. His health is a huge deal but if his down numbers were from being hurt and pitching sporadically, there’s no reason if healthy he won’t go back to pitching like his cy young season. He’s only 29 and I believe if he stays healthy he’s a top of the rotation guy. They have the assets to get him but prob won’t have to go too crazy. We stocked our minors so now use it to get a potential number 1 or 2 starter. I’d offer him 4 year ext starting in 2025 for $80 million. Trade for him, sign that other Japanese pitcher with a 4-5 yr deal. I’d also sign ryu as a veteran coming off an injured year to a 1 yr deal with a 2nd yr option. You can literally get those 3 pitchers for around 40 million this year. This would give you 6-7 starters which you always need. It’s just slightly more than Yamamoto and the top 3 in the rotation will be together for the next 4 years .