The Royals announced the signing of right-hander Seth Lugo to a three-year deal that allows him to opt out after the 2025 season. It’s reportedly a $45MM guarantee for the Ballengee Group client. He’ll receive equal salaries of $15MM in each season, meaning he’ll collect $30MM before making the opt-out decision.
Lugo, 34, came up as a starter with the Mets but wound up spending most of his time as a reliever for that club. He reached free agency for the first time a year ago and was able to secure a gig with the Padres that allowed him to try his hand at starting again. It was a two-year, $15MM pact that allowed him opt out after the first year if his return to a rotation went well.
The move could hardly have gone much better. Lugo’s arm held up under the new workload conditions, as he made just one trip to the injured list all year, missing about a month due to a left calf strain. He took the ball 26 times and logged 146 1/3 innings with an earned run average of 3.57. He struck out 23.2% of batters he faced, walked just 6% and kept 45.2% of balls in play on the ground. That made his opt-out decision an easy one, as he left $7.5MM on the table and returned to the open market, with MLBTR predicting he could secure a three-year, $42MM deal this offseason.
Starting pitching has reportedly been in high demand this winter but Lugo’s market was never going to go too crazy due to his age. But given that he would be limited to a relatively modest deal, he was a plausible fit with far more clubs than the top names. Last month, it was reported by Robert Murray of FanSided that “more than half the league” was interested. The Tigers, Dodgers and Red Sox were some of the specific clubs named with interest in his services, but so were the Royals.
Starting pitching has been an ongoing issue in Kansas City for a few years now, with their plans for a homegrown pitching staff largely falling short of expectations. In 2018, the club had five picks in the first 58 selections of the draft and used all of those on pitchers: Brady Singer, Jackson Kowar, Daniel Lynch IV, Kris Bubic and Jonathan Bowlan. None of those picks looks amazing at the moment.
Singer looked to break out in 2022 when he posted an ERA of 3.23 but that jumped to 5.52 this year. Kowar has been rocked for an ERA of 9.12 in his first 74 innings and was traded away this offseason. Lynch has a 5.18 ERA through his first 252 MLB innings. Bubic hasn’t been great for most of his career. He showed some encouraging signs of development at the start of 2023 before requiring Tommy John surgery after just three starts. Bowlan has just three major league innings but his minor league ERA has been just under 6.00 in the past two seasons.
The struggles of those drafted players, as well as from free agent signee Jordan Lyles, led to the club’s starters posting a collective ERA of 5.12 in 2023. Only the Reds, Athletics and Rockies were worse. General manager J.J. Picollo clearly stated that adding starting pitching was a goal this offseason and that the club should have about $30MM to spend on upgrading the 2024 club. This deal will accomplish the goal of adding to the rotation while using half of the available funds. For Lugo, he obviously made some wise decisions, both in returning to the rotation and returning to the open market this winter.
One bright spot in the club’s rotation last year was the breakout of Cole Ragans. After being acquired from the Rangers in the deadline deal that sent Aroldis Chapman the other way, Ragans posted a 2.64 ERA in 12 starts for his new club. He and Lugo should be atop the club’s rotation next year. Singer should be in there as well, looking to bounce back into something closer to his 2022 form. Lyles is in a comparable position, having registered a 4.42 ERA in 2022 but a 6.28 in the most recent season. He’s still owed $8.5MM and hasn’t been on the injured list since 2019 so he will probably get another opportunity to eat some innings. Pitchers like Lynch, Alec Marsh, Ángel Zerpa and others could be options for the back end but the club could also look for more external additions as the offseason continues.
As mentioned, Picollo used $30MM as a ballpark figure for available funds. The club also agreed to a deal with reliever Chris Stratton today, which comes with a $4MM guarantee, and a $5MM deal with Will Smith on the weekend. When combined with Lugo’s $15MM salary next year, that’s $24MM agreed to in the past few days.
Anne Rogers and Mark Feinsand of MLB.com first reported that the two sides were nearing agreement on a deal. Jon Morosi of MLB.com first reported the three-year term and Jon Heyman of The New York Post had the $45MM guarantee. Feinsand first reported on the opt-out while Robert Murray of FanSided relayed the even distribution of the money.
OMG! COMPETITIVE BALANCE!!!
Have a feeling Lugo will be a highly sought after chip at the TD after a strong first half, especially if the terms aren’t outrageous. Wish the Pads had kept him.
3/45 is easily movable if necessary. Nice signing.
Was hoping the Giants were going to get involved with him a little. Like this kid.
And I was hoping the Reds would land him. I’m guessing the Royals got it done by adding a third year.
the Giants are forever looking in the wrong direction when it comes to free agents
It helps that he probably feels this might be a clear path to the postseason at the deadline.
Seth didn’t fit the “Had bad year, need to prove himself” for the Giants as they are building the reputation of being the Major farm club for other teams
It also could be that with such a weak AL Central they believe they have a chance to compete by signing good players.
The Royals have shown that they’re willing to pay to improve their team. To my fellow White Sox fans: Last place, here we come!
Avenger- They’re just going to ship that contract out at the deadline.
Having the worst record in 2024, won’t do you any good in the lottery next year for the 2025 draft. the Royals had the second worst record and fell to picking 6th in ‘24
That anecdote does not dispel probability. It is probable that a bad record will result in a high draft pick.
The Pads should call up Wacha’s agent and offer him 3 years, $36 million, and see if he takes it. I don’t see a reason not to at this point.
Of the two, I would have rather they re-engaged with Lugo. But it’s clear pitching is not going to get any cheaper. They need to make something happen.
Wacha’s great but it always seems as though his arm is about to fall off, maybe it’s just me. Plus, the Pads probably can’t afford Wacha or Lugo. They need 2 SPs and 2RPs and 2 hitters and probably need to go cheaper than Wacha for each.
It’s a valid concern. That was a contributing factor to the Pads not wanting to pay Wacha $16 millon.
I’d pocket the $4 million savings, give him a three year guarantee and call it a signing.
Wish they’d pick up a good SP before the winter holidays, the waiting is killing me.
I have to believe that before they turned down 2/32 option they had preliminary discussions with his agent. 3/36 wasn’t going to work then and won’t work now – Lugo was a 2 year (maybe 3) projection and he just got 3/45. Wacha will have 3/45 as a floor.
Informed – And to think certain Pads Fans insisted the Padres didn’t have to watch their spending.
And yet here they are, letting two very good starting pitchers walk for $15-$16M annually despite having a great need for multiple starting pitchers.
Too funny.
In fairness, it was out of character for the franchise to watch its spending for the past couple of years.
Clearly, it is not very much in character. Once again, unfortunately.
They need 2 SPs and 2RPs and 2 hitters and probably need to go cheaper than Wacha for each.
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We really need to resurrect that articles from two weeks ago where the SD fanatics were saying Soto was never going to be traded, that they were working on an extension, and that SD had enough money to sign Yamamoto and a couple of other guys.
Does anyone remember the names of those guys?
Fever Pitch Guy
Too funny.
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I’ve never seen anything like that, other than the pure trolls. Those guys were getting incensed over every column that suggested Soto was on the block. And they’d ridicule anyone that suggested that SD wasn’t going to get two top-tier prospects for Soto. And that Bogaerts was a great signing.
Seldom have I seen a group of people be so wrong, so boisterously.
But that said, they should come back with a “whoops”.
@-JoeBrady- You’re absolutely right. I remember at the very beginning of the off-season when news first came out that the Padres were “likely” to trade Soto during the off-season reading many comments from SD fans that a deal w/ the NYY for Soto STARTS with Volpe and/or Dominguez and then several other high end prospects!
RShore – prospect ranking are fine but SD was seeking pitching and made that known so the better SP options were the obvious target to those that understood. While King / Brito / Vasquez weren’t on the top 100 list at the time of the trade, they are mlb ready guys and I don’t think anyone can deny that what King showed last year at mlb level is mor desirable than a 19-20 AA prospect with a #50 ranking (for example). So essentially, SD get a pretty good haul for 1 year of Soto.
I think if you took out those 3, and inserted a prospect, one of those OF guys would have definitely had to be included as opposed to lower lottery ticket guys.
If he had to be traded, I think the return was pretty good overall. A likely 3 SP (much needed) for 2 years, a likely 4 SP with a little more upside for many years, and a long RP / possible SP for a few years – filled a lot of spots.
Now, unlike some, I don’t get stuck on valuing a trade until a few years down the road – in this case, at least 1 as Soto is walking into FA. Sure, NY might sign him in FA but not an extension.
If the pitchers excel – SD will be pleased.
I said that. Instead of prospects, the Padres got FOUR (4) MLB players including the Yankees #1 catcher last season and their #1 setup guy. plus a top 100 prospect that was supposedly not available in trade. The 3 MLB pitchers have a combined 14 years of team control. Even if they each put up 1 WAR per season, that is more than double what Soto and Grisham combined put up in a season.
Its not what I would have liked to see, which was the Padres extending Soto, but after learning that he turned down a 15 year extension in excess of $540 million, I am ok with what they got. For Soto and a guy that had no place in the Padres lineup going forward, Preller filled many of the teams needs in one trade. He got a veteran backup catcher, filled out the pen, and 3 of those relievers have a shot at filling one of the back of the rotation spots. With one trade the Padres $40 million more Preller can spend to fill other spots of need.
The Padres now have 6 guys in the top 100 prospects and by the start of the 2024 season they will have 9 if no trades are made. If they add Leo Devries in international free agency as expected, that could be 10 prospects in the top 100 by the middle of 2024. Insanely strong farm system to trade from.
Plus the Padres still have 4 position players projected to put up a 4 plus WAR, Tatis, Machado, Bogaerts, and Kim. With every position other than DH projected as above MLB average. As of today, no other team in MLB is as stacked. And that is without Soto.
Would I rather have Soto in the lineup? F yes. Not many .900 OPS batters in baseball. Will the Padres be lost without him? Even if the offseason ended tomorrow the answer is a no.
I don’t know who posted it, but someone had a breakdown that showed the Padres at $202 million in CBT payroll. If they are trying to stay under the CBT threshold and at about $220 in actual payroll as has been reported locally, that means that they have at least $35 million to spend.
As of today the team’s needs are a #3 starter and a #4 starter, a corner OF, and a platoon DH/1B. That’s it.
If you are counting Wacha as a #4 and he signs for $12 million, that leaves $23 million to get a back of the rotation starter, a corner OF, and a platoon DH. Yariel Rodriguez at $8-10 million, a corner OF at a similar amount (which is what everyone thought Lee would cost instead if the $18.8 he got), and Cooper at $3 million, and they are ready to go and they still have some room to maneuver at the trade deadline.
Also hearing that Padres are in conversation with Carpenter about him retiring and getting a job as a coach. That would make more room in the payroll. Although it would add a hole at DH.
No other team is as stacked? What the f@ck are you talking about? Just dive 100 miles up the 5 to Dodger Stadium and you’ll see a team that is definitely more stacked with a better farm system. Insanely stacked farm system? Are you getting high on your own supply? The Padres have one of the worst systems in baseball. theathletic.com/4138444/2023/02/02/mlb-farm-system…
Pads Fans – we aren’t far off on thoughts. I’ll say if Carp retires that doesn’t really create much of a hole at DH though – LOL. Any warm body at league minimum offsets. Now, I’d like a lot more.
To some degree, I think they have about 5-6 guys that can battle for a 5 spot already. Surely 1 of them can be “ok” at 5.
Absolutely, they need a 3/4 guy to count on.
A 1b to allow Cro to try LF? A LF to allow Cro to stay at 1b?
Something for sure. I will see if Sanchez is still lingering for DH?
I just see a path to where if they can cobble together a .500 team thru AS break, then 1 or 2 of the prospects will either step up or get traded for someone to make a push for a WC spot.
As you say, they aren’t that far off from Feb without Soto. They couldn’t have stems him and probably not likely to sign him in FA so to get what they got and then position themselves for trade deadline or just wait for 2025, I’m ok with it.
It beats what us long suffering Padres fans have been thru for many many years.
Padres have 6 Top 10 prospects. mlb.com/prospects/top100/
Here is the Dodgers
mlb.com/prospects/top100/
So instead of being a total a-hole a little reality and a little less hitting the crack pipe up there in LA.
Iriarte, Mazur, and Head are likely to join that group when the MLB preseason rankings come out in March. They are already ranked in the BA top 100 for the Padres. The Padres #12 prospect, Jakob Marsee, just won the AFL MVP award and another season in AA like 2023 with a .274/.413/.428/.841 slashline with 16 HR and 46 SB and he will be in the top 100 as well.
Since you obviously don’t know who he is, Leo DeVries is the #1 international FA. He is as good of a SS prospect as Salas was as a catcher.
Before they added Thorpe and Marsee’s showing in the AFL, the Padres ranked 9th for MLB mlb.com/news/mlb-pipeline-2023-midseason-system-ra… and 5th for BA baseballamerica.com/stories/2023-midseason-organiz… in the midseason rankings. .
So yes, insanely stacked farm system. Top 3 in baseball.
Padres listed depth in the rotation are King, Avila, Brito, Vasquez, and Waldron in that order. One of them will step up and win a starting job. The rest move to the pen.
They have a solid #1 and #2 and need a #3 to step in and take Snell’s place.
As much as I like him, I don’t think the Padres will pursue Sanchez now that Higgy is on the team unless they move Higgy in a trade.
Do you think Cronenworth will be moved to the OF? Picking up a 1B is easier than an OF and I think Cooper would be a solid 1B/DH on the cheap. Especially since Machado will either DH or play 1B to start the season.
When I heard on Gwynn & Chris on 97.3 that the Padres offered Soto 15/542 and he said no, I knew that a trade was not only inevitable, but necessary.
This list is robust. mlbtraderumors.com/2023/04/2024-25-mlb-free-agents…
Pete Alonso (30)
Josh Bell (32)
Paul Goldschmidt (37)
Jose Altuve (35)
Brandon Drury (32)
Gleyber Torres (28)
Alex Bregman (31)
J.D. Davis (32)
Yoan Moncada (30)
Juan Soto (26)
Michael Conforto (32)
Alex Verdugo (29)
Jorge Soler (33)
Also, did you hear what Manny said when asked if he would be willing to move off 3B? If the Padres extend Kim, Manny could be the Padres 1B of the future. It sounded like he was willing if it made the team better.
F YES about what we have gone though since 1999. 2005 and 2006 were MEH with 82 and 88 win seasons but no real expectation of getting past the 1st round.
The rest of the time just sucked with the team in the bottom 5 in payroll almost every season.
I don’t know that I will ever forgive Melvin for the way he quit on what was an outstanding team last year. So glad he is gone.
I think like a lot of 3b Manny is destined for 1b at some point in his career but not for 2-3 years unless he volunteers for Kim to stay a few years.
I’d try Cro at LF for sure in ST – I can’t see him not being at least as good defensively as Profar/Pham/Soto over the last few years.
I can live with Cooper on the cheaper side.
I’m hoping Yu can be a 2 but fear he is more of a 3 and King will slot in as 4. If they don’t trade/sign a 2 then yes, it will be Yu and King for the 2/3 spots.
Plenty of 5 options to find someone.
This is my view on SP and why I’d still like to see a 2 acquired even if it is lower ranked 2 or highly ranked 3.
A lot of time left before ST.
He’ll be the magic loogy
Wise for the Royals to get a deal done before the Yamamoto competition ended. I imagine that a lot of other teams would have been more interested if they missed out on Yamamoto.
This is a really good point – every team going after Yamamoto would have had Lugo on their plan B list.
I doubt any contender that is going after Yammamoto would have had Lugo as plan B. More like Plan F. Imanaga, Stroman, Montgomery, Snell. Lugo would of been a complete afterthought IMO. Lugo is average and certainly won’t be a big deal in KC. He’ll be lucky if he wins 8 games.
Yup…give him what he wants. Which is probably being moved to a sure contender at the deadline..and the contract goes for prospects…Royals could eat some and improve the haul maybe. Astute move by KC.
Dock – I’m thinking Lugo thought the same – most money on the table and he will only be in KC for 3-4 months anyway before finding his way to a contender.
Longtimecoming- I’m thinking it was probably actually discussed in negotiations with KC. Smart move. It’s better than signing with a marginal team and TRYING to make the playoffs over 162. He can now build value in KC and just watch the standings.
Lol. Two 90 win teams,one 500 team, and 2 100 loss teams. It is the Tigers and Twins at the top.
Royals are goin for it!
Hey, they signed Will Harris and a World Series trophy comes along with the deal!
Will Smith
Dodgers thinking their Will Smith keeps that four year trend going.
Exactly what the Royals needed to build their rotation! Depending on what they spend on Lugo, they might be able to sign or trade for another good starting pitcher.
They have about $6MM left to spend. Yamamoto to the Royals!
with $40m in deferred payments starting in 2045 through to 2165… and yes I said 2165
@stymeedone – “Jordan” Yamamoto is waiting for their call . He’ll settle for 1M.
Good to see them adding pieces.
Here they come
The Boston Red Sox got outbid by the Kansas City Royals for a free agent they wanted? Lol
Where does it say the red sox actually offered him a contract?..i read some reporter speculated increased interest..but hadnt heard they actually made an offer, most of thier in house guys ie houck and crawford are cheaper and better.
I think a lot of Sox fans don’t realize the stock Breslow and Bailey are probably putting into Bello, Houck, Whitlock and Crawford. All have potential to be quality starters which I’m assuming Breslow and Bailey are betting they can unlock. This coupled with the fact that we need an Ace rather than another mid rotation guy leads me to believe guys like Lugo are not priority. If we fail on getting Moto I’d expect Snell, Monty or a trade.
Great points, I see the same thing. They have a bunch of guys with the potential to be very good and perhaps one or 2 of them will.
From the outside I see Yamamoto getting bank plus one trade for a great starter.
Their odds on Yamamoto or longgggg. I get wanting to be playing the top end of the market, but beyond Nola and Yamamoto that was always very thin. Everything I’ve heard suggests Snell isn’t really a target given his desire to play on the west coast. Their best bet is a trade, but really beyond Burns, who’s out there? Glasnow isn’t going intra-division and is Cease really the answer? They need arms. Better to get mid level arms than none at all imo
NY – I agree, but you forgot Pivetta. He has the potential for a monster season as a starting pitcher.
I think the Sox are focused on acquiring two pitchers capable of starting, especially if they go with a 6-man rotation which is more likely if they sign a Japanese pitcher this offseason.
I really wanted Lugo, tough to see him go.
It always baffled me why Bloom was always shuffling them around to patchwork the bullpen. All five of Bello, Houck, Whitlock, Crawford, and Pivetta are interesting enough arms that a team like the Red Sox (who have realistically been a non-contender for about five years now) should just be letting them get comfortable in their starting roles instead of playing hot potato with them. I’d love to see Breslow just come out and say “yep, these are our guys” and sign relief reinforcements instead.
Fever Pitch Guy
I really wanted Lugo, tough to see him go.
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I liked him as our #2 SP acquisition, but there are a few guys out there that fit the mold. And like with Wacha, I wouldn’t feel comfortable with that 3rd year unless it was a starts-based player option.
This sentiment is exactly why baseball is dying, the lack of competitive balance. It’s true that 2/3 of the league simply can’t compete with the top 10 teams anymore for free agents and it makes the sport an absolute joke.
Happy to do my part to kill it, I guess.
If they can’t compete, and competitive balance is dying, how was AZ in the WS last year?
Moreover, you’re confusing competitive balance with owners being unwilling to spend. No matter the rules put in place, those owners are going to be terrible, thus their teams will always underperform.
Sure every once in awhile a team gets lucky and gets in. Since 2000 46 teams have been in WS, 8 of those are teams in bottom 20 markets. Meanwhile NFL has KC, GB, TB, etc competing every year. I’m not confusing balance with spending, mlb needs to take steps with payroll floor, payroll cieling, and revenue sharing similar to NFL. In the NFL there is no financial disparity, every team can cap out payroll thanks to revenue sharing and cap.
The NFLs parody is based on who has one of the handful of QBs capable of putting a team on their shoulders. Not any of their revenue sharing or payroll measures
Brett: you see that sleight of hand you pulled though? “Meanwhile NFL has KC, GB, TB, etc competing every year.”
You used “competitive” for the teams you mentioned in the NFL, which has far less parity, while referring specifically to the “winners of the World Series.” That is not apples to apples.
there are too many teams as it is. let the weak die. let natural selection determine expansion or contraction.
DBH – Did you know that last year Oakland had the 5th-largest profit in MLB! They made $62.2M Net Earnings and yet still is a revenue sharing recipient. It reminds me of when ODB filmed himself getting out of a limousine to collect his food stamps.
Biggest loss was the Mets at $139M and the 2nd-biggest loss was the Padres at $55M.
>Oakland had the 5th-largest profit in MLB!
> They made $62.2M
Source? I’d like to see where some other teams rank. Thanks.
Hemlock – USA Today.
sports.yahoo.com/yankees-continue-reign-7b-valuati…
@Hemlock, if you Google it Forbes among many other sources come up. I had read it somewhere and had to look up to see if true. Was quite surprised it was.
I did not know that! Time to axe the lux tax!!!
Sure they made a profit of that but their payroll was what like 50 mill? Means they’re capped out at 95-110 mil w out losing money. Meanwhile top 10 teams running twice that budget every year.
Yeah just have a 10 team league, that’d be fun! Frankly I want this to happen for baseball to die. It’s a great sport ruined by greed on both sides.
That’s because the Mets are still paying Bobby Bonilla.
Going back to 24 would be good for baseball.
Shrinking is almost always a sign of a dying league. But beyond that, 14 of the 24 teams are considered small to mid market and would struggle to compete like now without revenue sharing and a cap.
DBH – You know MLB is expanding to 32 teams within 5 years or so, right?
Brett – Here’s some fun with numbers ….
14 teams received revenue sharing this year
6 of the 14 revenue sharing recipients made the postseason
3 of the Top 5 most profitable teams last year received revenue sharing
So CLEARLY the entire revenue sharing program is broken and needs to be fixed.
Teams making huge profits, like the Mariners & Athletics & Orioles, should NOT be receiving revenue sharing. They should NOT be rewarded for their cheapness.
Forbes is pretty good at that, but I would forewarn that you need details for some of these teams with wide-ranging business interests.
Brettlez
Yeah just have a 10 team league,
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Y’all don’t see it, but that will just replicate the problem. Boston is #12 in spending in 2023. Since they won’t be able to compete with the likes of LA and NY, they will get axed.
Eventually, you will be down to LA, SD, NY & NY.
Lol please, Boston in a rebuild and will be near the top 5 again once there roster warrants it.
There is some revenue sharing but it’s not nearly as lucrative as NFLs. Revenue sharing isn’t the only issue, a salary floor to stop teams from not spending and a hard salary cap would make baseball so much better. This will not happen though and we’ll continue to get the haves and have nots
Brett
“It’s true that 2/3 of the league simply can’t compete with the top 10 teams anymore for free agents and it makes the sport an absolute joke.”
Out of curiosity who are the top ten teams?
And how many of the last, say 10 World Series did they participate in?
And what are their payroll ranks?
LA, Anaheim, TX teams, NY teams, BOS, WAS, PHI, ATL are top 10 market size teams. Don’t know their exact payroll ranks year to year but all are consistently top 10. Since 2010, 79% of world series appearances have been from these teams, which make up 33% of the league. Meanwhile, the Cowboys which are the richest NFL team havent made a superbowl in a long period of time because there’s no financial upper hand in the NFL.
Brett
“LA, Anaheim, TX teams, NY teams, BOS, WAS, PHI, ATL are top 10 market size teams. Don’t know their exact payroll ranks year to year but all are consistently top 10. Since 2010, 79% of world series appearances have been from these teams, which make up 33% of the league.”
I misread your initial comment
I thought you said low payroll teams couldn’t complete. The Rays are an obvious exception to that
The point still stands. Well run teams can compete
Brett: Again, you use two completely different measures. With one, you justify the NFL model by citing only the Cowboys. OTOH, you use a percentage of “top teams” over the past several decades, using stats from before the expansion or the CBT implementation.
The NFL has to allow 50% of teams into their Super Bowl tournament to achieve parity that still isn’t capable of matching MLB. And, none of those have to do with a salary cap. Let’s use… Jets? Browns? Bengals? Titans? Bears? Bills? Houston? Washington? Dolphins? Bucs (outside of Brady trying to prove he can go there and win)?
How truly competitive are any of these teams over the long term. And there’s more… legitimately only a handful of teams are competitive for long periods of time, which is why NFL keep having repeated dynasties, or quasi-dynastic teams and MLB doesn’t.
Rays may be the only exception, with that being said how many world series wins do they have?
Okay, and there are 12 teams that have never won a Super Bowl…. That’s over 1/3 of the league.
4 teams have never even been to the Super Bowl. That’s over 10% of the league.
How is that better parity in any sense?
Those NFL teams you list are bad because they’re poorly run. There is financial parity in the NFL when it comes to on the field product. My point is, there isn’t even close to a financialy even playing field in the MLB. Mid to low market teams have to be run insanely well to even have a shot because they can’t sign big free agent talent and struggle to retain homegrown talent. For example, the Ray’s are competitive (haven’t won a WS but still competitive in the reg season), could you imagine what they’d do with a payroll of 200 mill? Let alone a payroll of the Yankees? This makes the sport more of a competition of finances than athletics.
The parity is different because it’s an even split between big, medium and small market teams. The Browns are bad because they’ve drafted poorly and have constant turmoil, not because they can’t afford to sign or keep players. Where as in baseball the guardians are constantly having to trade their homegrown talent before free agency hits and dumpster diving free agents.
Is it that perhaps financial equity has little to do with competitive balance?
You’re making blanket assertions as to why one league has far more parity than another, while also saying that the league with less true parity (NFL) has more parity, but without any evidence to show for it.
The problem with this argument is that you are simply claiming financial disparity as the source of any competitive advantage. It’s not true and there’s zero evidence to support it.
There is, however, evidence to support that the manner in which teams are run (managers, coaches, environment) has far more to do with performance than a salary cap, which is just putting lipstick on a pig. No salary cap can make owners want to win, or to spend more.
My point: it’s got nothing to do with money. It’s just fans want the biggest FA stars on their teams (while understandable, it has nothing to do with competitive balance).
If you think it has nothing to with money, I don’t know what else to tell you. You seem like a Yankee fan so I wouldn’t expect you to understand the struggles of mid and small markets. There’s a reason 80% of world series appearances are from the top 10 markets while the nfl with revenue sharing and a cap have a percentage closer to 35% which is fitting since those markets are 1/3 of the league.
why would anyone want to play for the Sox? a last place team with little talent in a division with some real powerhouses.
Red Sox are a long shot to make the postseason. Lugo just almost guaranteed he’s pitching on a contender at the deadline. Exactly how the Royals would like signings to go…but they can’t always pull it off. Make yourself the proving ground and deal and hoard prospects. Royals just need to make deals other teams will want to absorb in trades or use $ sent to improve prospects
He’ll be in a different uniform come August 2024
Be honest – who got this one right in The Contest?
Not me. I had him going to the Diamondbacks. My FA bracket is looking worse than my NCAA bracket last March!
not me
Run – Not me, I had him staying with the Padres. I thought he was the only free agent starting pitcher they could afford to keep, obviously I was wrong.
FWIW, I had him going to STL, but I guess he was too young for STL…any points for right state wrong team?
It would be hilarious if they signed Wacha and Snell next, then proceed to make the playoffs with 3/5 San Diego pitchers.
They could totally get Wacha. Watch their young hitters blossom and they make the playoffs behind a Lugo-Wacha 1-2 punch in that dreadful division.
right?? there’s little to no chance they’d sign Snell, but Wacha is very possible.
snell seems bent on seattle
Seattle will have to trade one of their current starters for Snell to have a spot. Ray will be back in 24. Play they’ve already got one of the best rotations without snell. They’d be better off spending that money elsewhere imo
Cole Ragans
I like Seth Best of Luck!
Wow, the Red Sox can’t even get a mid tier pitcher that they target♂️
Outbid by the Kansas City Royals. Incredible.
Or more likely KC was willing to pull the trigger now and Boston is waiting out decisions on better arms like Yamamoto and wasn’t about to jump all in on someone like Lugo just yet.
“Better arms like Yamamoto”
.It’s good to see someone with a little perspective here and not jumping to conclusions.
They need multiple pitchers. If they don’t wind up with both Yamamoto and Montgomery, there was no reason to wait.
I agree with you, except Boston was known to be in on Lugo and are in the market for more than one starter. I do think they make a big go at Yamamoto, but losing out on Lugo to KC? That’s embarrassing!
DBH – If the Sox sign Yama or Snell and Shota or Monty, all will be forgiven.
Agreed, FPG. A week ago I would have said Moto was a must. But Cohen’s cash and Ohtani’s silly contract will make Yamamoto way over priced, I think.
If the silliness continues with the salaries, I will be good with signing anyone with at least 1 arm and punting on everyone else.
lugo just 15 mils a year. LUGO!!!!
Doooood!!! Lol,
Ok, quick edit… NOT Kubler!!!
The article also mentions that the Dodgers were interested in signing Lugo. Did that also “miss out” on him to KC?
DBH1969- It helps to think of KC as the reverse Dodgers. Players won’t sign there now because its a playoff run. Red Sox are shaky for any players that want to be ASSURRED of a playoff run at the deadline. Lugo guaranteed he can be dealt to a probable playoff team in July. He’s rising out an awful team on a pretty decent contract that was probably negotiated along the lines of being dealt. Royals can churn for prospects
Boston didbt offer him a contract good luck trying to get something for him at the deadline in 2026 kc when he is 37 and you still are rebuilding
Poolhall- I’m guessing he knows very well he’s positioned to be flipped to a contender at the deadline this season.
I think Breslow’s stated interest in the upper echelon of the free agent market is mostly lip service for the fans. 2024 is a rebuilding / see what we’ve got kind of year for a new GM. Would be the case with any team. Don’t be surprised if your starting rotation looks like Sale, Bello, Houck, Pivetta, and maybe a back-end pickup from free agency. None of the young arms on the Sox have really been given an opportunity to start over a full season since Bloom was always shuttling them around between the rotation and the bullpen for whatever stupid reason.
Lugo is a career reliever who had one good year as a starter in an extreme pitcher’s park with bad quality of contact stats. I’m completely fine with the Red Sox passing on that as long as they add something better
why would anyone want to play with the Sox? a last place team with little talent in a powerhouse division.
All the “contending” teams probably want him to be a swingman still and he probably only wants to start. I respect him sticking to it, even if it means going to a club that isn’t there yet.
Don’t be surprised if its a 3 year deal and if Lugo puts up some numbers. The Royals have a cavernous park and an excellent defense in a poor division. Good place for a pitcher like him to be.
3 year pact it is. Nice.
but is it really a pact?
Good move reds
Perfect!!!
3 year 45 for Lugo is 1000× better than 2 years of anything above minimum for Lyles was.
How much is being deferred?
The Royals are going aggressive here. I like it.
Wow. Good for Royals. Little surprised he couldn’t get that from a contender. Guessing maybe he just didn’t want to wait and get left out in the cold..
I believe other teams weren’t willing to give him the third year and I can’t say I blame them. $45MM seems like a lot of money for Seth Lugo, but like you said, good for the Royals for being aggressive.
“Get left out in the cold”
.Probably. Many teams are going for a TOR arm and would use Lugo as a fallback option.
This reminds me of the 3 year deal that Scott Feldman signed with the Astros in 2013. Royals winning 2027 world series confirmed.
Another guy off the list. Classic AA.
Good for them. Good signing
I’ll take guys traded at the 2025 trade deadline for $500 Alex
Lugo & Lyles!
Sign Wacha & Teheran next
Seth Lugo. $45M. Now go tell a mirror.
If I’m them, I’d throw 150 million at Jordan Montgomery now lol
Royals have now spent $20M of the reported $30M they have to spend. What’s next?
He must hate himself.
Wow Royals spending money. A complete shock. Probably traded 2025 Trade Deadline
Chaim Breslow strikes out….again! Wait until Yamamoto signs with the Yanks, LA Dodgers, Giants or Mets. The Red Sox have already written the script of excuses. The waiting is not who they will sign, it’s the excuses they will dish-out on who they were unable to sign.. Raffy laughing all the way to the $$bank$$.
Dude..youd really want boston to give him 3 years? Yer crazy..this not s good deal
Sox will counter with Montgomery & Imanaga if they miss out on Yamamoto. That would be fine with me if they did.
Dotty – Aim higher.
Solid signing by the Royals!!! Did not have to break the payroll to get him. What is next??
Mets fan here. Good for Lugo! He always wanted to start, and I’m assuming the payday is why. Probably doubled what he would have made as a setup man.
I never understood why the Mets (I’m a Mets fan also) insisted on using him in the bullpen when he made it clear he wanted to be starter… AND he was better than most of the back end starters they trotted out there. Completely mishandled.
Great signing for KC and good for Lugo!!
He had a tear in his ucl that he rehabbed. I’m glad he got his money and I like him but I don’t know how his arm is gonna hold up going forward. I guess it can’t be that bad if the royals are ok with his medicals but maybe the Mets weren’t
$44 million is being deferred until 2042.
Get your facts straight, it’s 44 million until 2050.
Wacha will be living in an underground bunker by then so won’t have to pay Kansas taxes
I mean Lugo
Further proof the Padres are punting this season.
Time for the Padres to call up the prospects, and stock the team with pieces from the farm.
Pass on trading away the farm for marginal pitching just to fill out the rotation.
Youth movement. Kiss 2024 goodbye and plan for 2025.
Mail it in. Dodgers will take another division.
Stop being the farm system for MLB.
Go Padres.
Your team has a great track record of finding guys like Lugo on the cheap. Why do you think they can’t do the same again this offseason. Especially with so many guys like him out there.
Do you not think that Niebla can turn King into Lugo 2.0? Or Brito or Vasquez into Martinez?
Maybe they sign the Cuban kid Rodriguez that has been working out at their DR facility and make him a back of the rotation starter?
I think its too early to give up. Unless you are an Angels fan. Then its ok. We are toast in 2024.
Brito seems like a great candidate for strategic long relief (Martinez role), wouldn’t count on him at all as a SP
Brito made 20 starts last season. King made 9, one of which was a opener situation.
To me, King seems more likely to fill Martinez swingman slot. Hope I am wrong and King is the next Lugo for pennies on the dollar. .
April – June Brito was a “SP” but only to throw a few innings, and it didn’t go well when they tried to stretch him to 5 innings (i.e., third time through batting orders). But in last 3 months of season he was used as a RP throwing multiple innings and his ERA was great in that role. Definitely a Martinez type profile.
King was deployed as a SP in September and did well. I assume the Pads are going to try him in that role given their huge need at SP.
2 of which were in opener situation and 4 of which were 4 IP or shorter for King.
This team has no money to spend. So, yes from that standpoint the season is over.
This is a developmental year.
I do heart the Halos though. I feel your pain.
84 wins was good enough to reach the World Series last year.
No one throughout the league should be mailing it in.
This team has no money to spend. The season is over.
I am hoping Preller does not waste prospect capital on a trade just to fill out a roster.
Padres prospects are more valuable to the organization than what they will recieve in trades.
Because the Padres have such severe payroll constraints they can’t afford to sign any FAs.
That leaves two options trading for depth or using the depth you have.
Time for this team to hold off on trading anyone and promote and play the kids, similar to what the Rays do.
I just don’t want to see the Padres trade pieces for average to mediocre talent, simply to fill out a roster. That is how you ruin a franchise.
The Pads literally have $50 million to spend. That’s not a king’s ransom but it’s not nothing.
I do agree to not trade the farm away anymore. Let some kids play. Surprising things can happen when you do that. See last year’s Reds.
Again, an 84 win team reached the World Series in 2023. It’s nonsense for most teams to declare their season over before it starts, let alone the Pads.
We really don’t know what the Pads will spend, to say they have $50M is just speculation. You’d think after investing so much into long-term contracts to compete every year they would spend up to max of what they have. I’m just not buying any speculation though, after the past two months of conflicting talk vs actions by Padre brass.
It’s literally not speculation. You add up all the savings from the moves they’ve done thus far (trading Soto and Grisham, trading Barlow, non-tendering Nola), and the reported figure they now have to work with is $50 million.
We don’t know what they will do with the money, but no fanbase ever knows that. It’s pretty unlikely they are going to stand pat with the roster they have.
“You’d think after investing so much into long-term contracts to compete every year they would spend up to max of what they have.”
This blows my mind a bit. People can criticize the late Seidler/Preller regime for many things. NOT spending money is not one of them. If anything, the main criticism is they have not spent their money wisely (Cro extension, Bogaerts signing). They have spent so much money they are required by the league to reduce payroll to $200 million to get back into compliance with debt service rules.
Aside from the BoMel situation, Padre brass has been consistent that they would need to reduce payroll for 2024, and that it’s always been the plan to start relying on their farm team more for wins. Even with the BoMel thing, no one was lying when they said he would be back in 2024 before the Giants called. Then the Giants called, and everyone was in agreement him going there was best for everyone.
I tip my cap to this thread for solid Eyeyore-ism.
You sure read more into my comment than I said, mind blowing. What they have to work with doesn’t necessarily equate to what they will spend, again, to try to guess that is pure speculation, literally.
They will pocket the speculated $50 million before spending it. There is nothing to believe that will be spent on player acquisitions.
Informed Sportsball Discussion
It’s literally not speculation.
=========================
There might be a dozen people in the world that know the SDP budget. Unless you are one of them, then it is speculation.
I have looked and looked and looked and have not found one time when Padres brass have said they have to reduce spending. Can you point me in the direction of an interview or press conference where they are directly quoted as saying they are cutting payroll?
No one in the Padres organization has said they are cutting payroll. At all. Not even one.
1) a youth movement would be good for us.
2) Stop worrying about the Dodgers. They are who they are. Ohtani or not, they are same system and quality of player that they’ve always been. They are always good if not exceptionally good. However, recent history shows that they are their own undoing by the end of the season. Focus on the ascendant Diamondbacks-or winning against the other clubs in the division. One of which has a manager that intimately knows our weaknesses and strengths.
3) I want the youth to come up. They did last September and helped the team on a run that ensured a winning season. Heart and desire have a definitive place in success on the diamond. That is precisely what this team lacked for most of last year.
4) Build this team from our farm. Be patient and then trim it with talented free agents. Who else does that? Hint Hint same old dragon to the north.
May Peter rest gently. A generous and kind soul to more than just us fans, Peter made a difference for the Padres and, just as importantly, for regular San Diegans.
The division is the Dodegers next year, until who knows.
I do belive in the Padres farm.
I would love to see the Padres call up the kids and let them play.
I don’t trust that the new ownership will carry on Peter’s desire. Was there a partial sale? Is it the same group? I can’t say they are on the same page.
This year comes down to Preller. He seems to have been given nothing to work with.
I just hope he holds off on knee jerk trades that gut the farm to fill out the roster.
Don’t want to see a Max Fried part two. I think there is some real value that other GMs will try to pry away. They know Preller is desperate. To that I say, play the kids.
Preller gets fired this year if they don’t make the playoffs, so he very well might try to trade important prospects to get help – his problem however is a limited budget, and to what degree we as fans just don’t know.
No one knows that. Probably the Seidler family doesn’t even know that. Preller has survived multiple years where he could have been fired (’19, ’21, ’23) so at this point it’s anyone’s guess what would make ownership finally make a change.
We do know the budget, as I outlined in another comment.
Exactly the budget allows for approximately 5 to 10 million for free agent signings. That’s a tiny amount limiting you to either trades or call ups.
I’d favor calling up the farm instead of shipping ou the next Max Fried or Cory Kluber for marginal or mediocre talent. No money to spend does not mean you have to replenish depth through trades.
Call up the farm.
“Exactly the budget allows for approximately 5 to 10 million for free agent signings.”
Again, $50 million, but there is apparently no getting you to buy that number.
If you have a source indicating yours post the Soto trade, lay it on us.
Where are you getting $50 million? All indications are pointing to the 5 to 10 million dollar range.
Literally any mainstream press story following the Soto trade. Their payroll sits at the $150 million dollar range. They must spend no more than $200 million. Ergo, $50 million is available.
Where are you getting 5 to 10 million? That’s simply not the case.
msn.com/en-us/sports/mlb/juan-soto-trade-gives-pad…
“Soto and Grisham were projected to make around $38 million next season through arbitration. (Soto in his final year of eligibility, Grisham in his penultimate year.) The Padres had already cleared substantive payroll space earlier in the winter when they declined club options on Nick Martinez and Michael Wacha, and Seth Lugo opted to join Cy Young Award winner Blake Snell and closer Josh Hader on the free agent market. According to the best public estimates — those hosted at Cot’s Contractsand Spotrac — the Padres’ 2024 projected payroll now sits around $150 million.
That doesn’t mean A.J. Preller and company will spend $50 million between now and Opening Day 2024 — some front offices like to leave at least $10 million in wiggle room for in-season additions. It does, however, suggest that Preller should have the ability to upgrade a roster that has bled talent in recent weeks.”
Here’s another one. Hot off the e-presses.
sandiegouniontribune.com/sports/padres/story/2023-…
“With both Soto and Trent Grisham off to the Yankees, Fernando Tatis Jr. is the lone starting-caliber outfielder on the Padres’ 40-man roster. Filling two outfield holes is a priority for the Padres, who have some $55 million to spend this offseason to reach their reported 2024 payroll target of $200 million.”
Debt service implications will greatly affect that number. There is no indication that money will be reinvested into payroll.
The team is trying to parry down payroll.
The team has indicated it has 5 to 10 million to spend. That is common knowledge.
$200 million IS the debt service number.
This is ridiculous and you’re making stuff up. I’ve wasted enough time on you.
I’m guessing Preller is on a short leash, better? You’re guessing about what they will spend. You just don’t know.
Who in the Padres organization has said they have a limited budget?
At this point it doesn’t matter in terms of ticket sales since season tickets are sold out and all the premium games are sold out period. So they wouldn’t lose any money by saying so now. So if they were cutting payroll, why wouldn’t someone have said so?
Reportedly Soto turned down a 15 year, $542 million extension from the Padres, so trading him was a no brainer. Grisham was going away no matter what. Padres needed someone who can hit in CF. The trade filled 4 slots in the MLB roster mostly with younger, cheaper and better players than the ones they replaced, so good trade for the Padres. King is cheaper than Lugo or Martinez were LAST season and Vazquez and Brito are cheaper than Hill or Garcia. Higgy takes Sanchez spot as backup catcher.
Barlow for De Los Santos was getting younger, cheaper, and arguably better.
So far all the moves that have been made appear to have been with an eye to getting younger, cheaper and better, not just cheaper.
So with 75% of the FA still on the market and spring training still 2 months away I am going to reserve judgement on what Preller and the Padres are doing.
Towin, What indications?
Padres are at $151.3 million in payroll as of today. That would give them about $50 million to spend before they hit up against the rumored $200 million budget, a figure not even one person actually in the organization has said is where they want or need to end up. Just Acee. He is the only one.
So where are YOU getting $5-10 million?
“reported 2024 payroll target of $200 million”
Not one single person in the Padres ownership, FO, or even the manager has mentioned $200 million.
Acee was the only one that mentioned it and even he said that the reason he originally mentioned it, debt service ratio, was wrong. Everyone since then has simply parroted what Acee said.
Scott Boras said during the Winter Meetings that the Padres had no payroll limitation and went further to talk about the TV deal and how their revenue increased after DSG defaulted. So why would you think they have to cut payroll?
Who in the team has indicated that they have $5-$10 million to spend? Not one person has said that.
Every year the Padres find another Lugo. A relatively cheap pitcher who fills a role at the back of the rotation or in the bullpen. Why do you think 2024 won’t be just like 2023 when they found 2 of those guys?
I doubt that King or Brito will be that guy that steps up in the rotation, but I have faith that Preller and his staff can find another guy that can fill that role.
I am also not convinced that they won’t spend more or pull off a trade for a big time pitcher. Rumors on here have said they are in discussions with the Brewers for Burnes and with the Marlins for Luzardo or Garrett.
No way they will mail it in when they have Machado, Bogaerts, Musgrove, Darvish, and Tatis on the roster and getting older by the day.
80% of the MLBTR top 50 FA are still on the market.
So have some faith and let the offseason play out. We have more than 2 months until pitchers and catchers report and more than 3 until opening day.
Plus, you know, 84 wins, whatnot. I really don’t understand any defeatism with that precedent well in hand now.
We’ve had that precedent for a while; the Cardinals made it to and won a World Series after an 83 win regular season.
And 84 wins got the DBacks TO the Postseason; they still had to win 9 more times to make the World Series.
Nap time
I’m surprised another team couldn’t beat that price. M
They could. They chose not to.
Lugo is so committed to the Royals he included an opt-out. Guy went to the only team to give him 3 & the bag and is happily waiting to be shuffled off to a winner. Hope he doesn’t turn into a pumpkin.
Should’ve deferred 96% of it for 30 years.
About time they gave the fanbase of the Royals something to look forward to. Those are some die hards fan in KC that support that team and travel extremely well.
Good for Seth…
Odd, same AAV as he got with the Pads yet a considerably worse team. Seems like Lugo jumped the gun a bit.
With a longer guarantee
Lugo’s option with the Pads for 2024 was for only $7.5 million. He doubled his money thrice. He turned a one year, $7.5 million guarantee into three years, $45 million.
Considerably worse team, yes, but clearly Lugo wanted the payday, and he can either be content riding it out on a rebuilding team, hope for a trade to a contender, or opt out entirely after 2025 and see what his market looks like among playoff-likely teams.
My bad, misread the article regarding his annual. Still, feel like he should have waited till Yamamoto signed to see how things shook out.
Hard to think anyone would pay him more than 3/45. I’d say Lugo made the right choice.
Lugo made $7.5 million with the Padres. This deal is double what he would have made if he stayed and its for 3 seasons.
Congrats to Lugo. A 100% raise and locked in more money in his final MLB contract than he had made to this point. Kind of thought he was the kind of guy Arte would have Minasian go after because the deal would only be short term. Oh well.
A lot of money for an okay SP with a limited track record at age 34.
and an injury risk after pitching more innings last year than he had the 3 years prior combined!
They just through 45 million in a fire. Not only is Lugo not that good but hes getting older. Then again, I guess no one wants to go to the Royals and lose 80% of their starts
I see a lot of sarcastic comments about the Royals signings. i love everything they’ve done this off-season. they don’t have a big budget, and if Ragans is legit, and Lyles can pitch at all, with Lugo, they’re not terrible. Bubic was pitching better before injury too. with Anderson, Smith and Stratton, they should have some bullpen consistency from 3 guaranteed spots. Sign a Hunter Renfroe and Harrison Bader, cut bait with M.J., Olivares and maybe Isbel. Money should be close. this may not be popular, but I might see if someone would give a couple prospects and take Salvys contract as well, then put that money right back into BWJ. First season in a while to watch what KC is doing IMO.
Lugo will earn $1 in each of the next three seasons with $42 million differed until 2050.
don’t forget the 1 year Jelly-of-the-month-Club subscription.
It’s the gift that keeps on giving, all year ’round
That’s the gift that keeps on giving, Clark
I like it. Be nice if the game had more competitive balance but these are three nice additions for the Royals.
I actually think that this is a good signing for the Royals.
Padres will not spend on free agents under new administration, who seem to be finance types. I miss Mr. Seidler.
They would have to spend less under Mr. Seidler, too. MLB debt service rules are not suggestions.
The Royals…had forgotten about them. Did Balboni retire?
Nice pickup for Royals.
Really happy for Seth. At age 34, its probably his final contract and its a great one. Double what he made last season with the Padres. Good luck to him.
Seth says thanks.
The Royals spending 15 million a season on a reliever. Did Elon Musk buy the team?
The Royals?!?!?
The Royals have made a couple of decent signings in the past few days, their pitching staff may be decent next season.
Is there enough money left to extend BWJ?
Good for Lugo to get a nice contract, although I’m sure he wishes it was with a different club.
With the Central the way it is don’t sleep on the Royals
Stupid money for team headed for 65 wins
Odd choice of destination but best of luck to Seth Lugo!
Seems like a pretty good deal for them. Not where I’d want to land if I’m him but I guess this was one of his better offers
Damn! The Royals are doing a lot more than the Cubs so far. Come on Hoyer, get movin’!
The Royals appear to be the only team in the AL Central that’s is buying right now. The Tigers are trying but they already have to offset the loss of Eduardo Rodriguez. The Twins are looking to trade their talent so they can avoid large Arbitration settlements. The Indians are looking to deal Bieber for prospects. They have a bunch of kids who have looked good and may not miss him but a 3rd place team dumping their ace for prospects looks like a Rebuild is in store. Can the entire division be in a Rebuild?My main point is that in a division like this worst to first is not impossible. I don’t expect they’ll do it this next year but 2025 or 2026 their offense should be ready. And with former 20 game winner Kyle Wright returning from Tommy John surgery the pitching staff might be ready. Also don’t be surprised if rule 5 pickup Matt Sauer Is a big help either in the rotation or the pen. Nice to see some spending. A nice Christmas gift for Royals fans would be seeing management bust the Budget and sign Michael Wacha.
Great pickup by the Royals. Thought the Braves would’ve been in the conversation given the contract.
He will be a starter, and if he does really good they made trade him at the deadline in a larger package because of the extra years of control.
I tried to get Lugo to resign with us, but was a no go. He wanted the cash not the championship that me as team captain and my Padres are seeking. Boooo! Signed- Matt, aka “Carp”. Peace dudes.
Been in the show for 8 years and he is going to basically triple his career earnings within 1 season. Impressive.
Glad the Red Sox didn’t sign him.
Is this dude any good. He’s 34 iam sure he lost stuff
The Ohtani deal was supposed to open up the flood gates yet we’ve had merely a few drips.
Stop RE-POSTING old articles! We are sick of it!
Had an interesting conversation with a client at lunch today about baseball, the Padres, and Lugo in particular. He is not a scout or manager or anything like that, but he has made an offer to buy the Angels in recent years, so he is both incredibly wealthy and very knowledgeable.
1st off, sorry Angels fans, he is not interested in buying the Angels at this time. He said Moreno wanted the buyer to take on all debt and liabilities as part of the purchase, including the pending lawsuits, and he backed off at that point. He doesn’t think Moreno will sell until those lawsuits are settled. At least he won’t be involved.
He said he thought the Padres biggest goal this offseason is to get under the CBT threshold so that in a 2024-2025 offseason with a large group of proven hitters on the market, they can make a big push again. He thinks they are more likely to sign a couple more low level starting pitching FA and be involved in a trade with wither the Brewers or the Marlins. It also gives the Padres an extra year to look at the guys at the top of the farm that would not be traded this year. Salas, Merrill, and Snelling.
About Lugo he said Lugo had some major differences as a starter in 2023 vs as a reliever in recent seasons. While his ERA stayed steady from 2021-2022 to 2023, he had big changes to his stuff. A large drop in SO% from about 27% in 2021-2022 to 23% in 2023. Part of that was a large rise in chase contact rate from around 50% to 57.5%. Lugo wasn’t fooling people with stuff out of the zone in 2023 and he thought it was due to a drop in the drop in velocity of his FB. He said that Lugo also had a large increase in HH% from 35% in 2021-2022 to 44% in 2023, a large increase in barrel rates from 8.2% to 9.6%, and the EV was up in both average and max for the season. He said for a 34 year old pitcher those were worrisome signs and he agreed with the Padres choosing to cap their offer at 2 years and $24 million.
I had not heard it broken down like that and I agree. I am glad the Padres let him walk for the $15 million AAV and $45 million total he signed for. Even with the incredibly large salary inflation we are seeing this offseason, I still think the Padres can sign two back or the rotation starters for the same $15 million they would have spent on Lugo alone.