Royals Finalizing Two-Year Deal With Hunter Renfroe

The Royals are reportedly finalizing a deal with outfielder Hunter Renfroe, which is pending a physical. The McKinnis Sports client will get $13MM over two years, with $500K in incentives also available each year. He will make $5.5MM in 2024 and $7.5MM in 2025, but can opt out after the first season.

It’s been a busy week for the Royals, who have signed pitchers Seth Lugo and Will Smith, while also reportedly agreeing to a deal with Chris Stratton. They also had known interest in buttressing their outfield, having been connected to Tyler O’Neill in recent rumors. But the Cardinals flipped O’Neill to the Red Sox and it seems the Royals have pivoted to the free agent market.

Renfroe, 32 in January, has been incredibly nomadic in recent seasons, which is likely a reflection of his enticing power but limited overall profile. He began his career with the Padres but has subsequently bounced to the Rays, Red Sox, Brewers, Angels and Reds, meaning he’s worn six jerseys in the past five years, with this deal set to make it seven in six.

Since becoming a full-time player in 2017, he has hit at least 20 home runs in each full season, as well as eight in the shortened 2020 campaign. He’s also reached the 30-homer plateau twice. But he also doesn’t have huge batting average or on-base percentages. His career batting line of .239/.300/.478 amounts to a wRC+ of 106, indicating he’s been a bit above league average on the whole.

But that’s come in fairly inconsistent fashion on a year-to-year basis. In 2019, he hit 33 home runs, but that was the “juiced ball” season. Since he struck out in 31.2% of his plate appearances and had a .289 OBP, he was actually a smidge below league average, 99 wRC+. He was flipped to Tampa and then had significant struggles in 2020, despite the eight homers. The Rays traded him to the Red Sox, which led to a bounceback season and Boston flipping him to the Brewers for prospects, taking on Jackie Bradley Jr. in the process. Renfroe hit 60 homers over those seasons with Boston and Milwaukee, slashing .257/.315/.496 for a wRC+ of 118.

Yet another trade to the Halos preceded yet another downturn. He hit 19 homers but his .242/.304/.434 line had his wRC+ at 99 again. As the club fell out of contention, they put multiple players on waivers to try to dip below the luxury tax. Renfroe was one one them and he was claimed by the Reds. In 14 games with that club, he hit a dismal .128/.227/.205 and was released.

Renfroe isn’t a burner on the basepaths, having stolen just 14 bases in his career and none in 2023. Defensively, he’s generally been subpar. He has a career tally of -9 Outs Above Average as an outfielder while Ultimate Zone Rating has given him a grade of -5.1. Defensive Runs Saved has him at +13 but most of that is due to a +19 grade in 2019, which looks like a clear outlier.

Though Renfroe hasn’t been an all-around performer, his strengths have been enough for him to have value. Per FanGraphs’ versions of Wins Above Replacement, he produced between 1.5 and 2.5 wins in the four full seasons prior to 2023. He’s definitely coming off a weaker platform season, 0.6 fWAR, but he was at 1.1 before the waiver claim and hasty move to Cincinnati.

The Royals had plenty of questions in their outfield and don’t need Renfroe to be a superstar for him to count as an upgrade. Their outfielders hit a collective .228/.294/.393 in 2023 for a wRC+ of 83. Nelson Velázquez earned himself a role in 2024 with a power surge in 2023, but he could perhaps see some DH time since his glovework isn’t strongly rated. MJ Melendez could be in a corner but he’s coming off a disappointing season and has been in trade rumors, with some clubs perhaps willing to move him back to catcher. Center fielders Kyle Isbel and Drew Waters are good defenders but both are coming off poor seasons offensively. Edward Olivares and Dairon Blanco are also in the mix but have limited track records.

For a club coming off a 106-loss season, there’s merit to adding a guy like Renfroe who has a decent chance of being a solid regular. If he does so and the club remains a non-contender over the course of the deal, he could perhaps turn into a trade chip at some point. For Renfroe himself, he was able to lock in a decent chunk of change while also securing the ability to return to the open market a year from now if he can have a better platform.

This is the third time the Royals have given an opt-out this winter, with Lugo and Stratton also getting one in their deals. Perhaps the club is using this as a bit of an edge to lure players to a club that may not be the first choice of some free agents. The club hasn’t been a huge spender traditionally and has been producing poor results in recent years, but perhaps giving players some extra contractual agency has allowed them to overcome some of those obstacles.

General manager J.J. Picollo recently threw out $30MM as a ballpark figure for what the club could spend this winter to upgrade the 2024 club. The deals with Lugo, Smith, Stratton and Renfroe add up to $29.5MM. But news is now breaking about a deal with Michael Wacha, which also has an opt-out, so it seems the club wasn’t rigidly tied to that spending level.

Mark Feinsand of MLB.com first had the two sides nearing agreement on what was expected to be a one-year deal plus a player option. Anne Rogers of MLB.com relayed that the deal is still pending a physical. Jon Heyman of The New York Post confirmed the two-year/opt-out structure and relayed the $13MM guarantee and incentives. Feinsand then relayed the specific financial breakdown.