December 28: ESPN’s Enrique Rojas reports (on X) that Boston, Pittsburgh and Toronto have all shown interest in Rodriguez as a starter. Cincinnati, San Diego and the Yankees prefer the right-hander in a relief role. Rojas indicates that Rodriguez prefers to start, although there’s no indication he has officially ruled out any teams targeting him in a bullpen capacity.
December 27: The Reds and Red Sox are among the teams still showing interest in free agent right-hander Yariel Rodriguez, tweets Francys Romero. Last week, Romero reported that the Pirates, Astros, Blue Jays and Yankees were also in the running.
Cincinnati hasn’t been frequently tied to Rodriguez throughout the offseason. The Reds were among roughly half the league that sent scouts to evaluate the righty’s throwing session in the Dominican Republic on October 10, a few days after he’d been granted his release from the NPB’s Chunichi Dragons. There hasn’t been much to connect the sides since that point, although it’s not especially surprising that Cincinnati is involved on one of free agency’s younger pitchers.
The Reds have made two major league additions to the pitching staff. Swingman Nick Martinez signed for two years and $26MM, while reliever Emilio Pagán inked a two-year, $16MM deal. President of baseball operations Nick Krall indicated that Martinez will compete for a rotation spot but stopped short of calling him a lock for the season-opening five.
Rodriguez falls into a similar category, as there’s some question about whether he’ll stick in an MLB rotation. The 26-year-old worked out of the bullpen with the Dragons in his final NPB season in 2022. He turned in a stellar 1.15 ERA while striking out 27.5% of opponents over 54 2/3 innings. His 8.3% walk percentage was right in line with the MLB average.
Despite the strong results in relief, it’s likely whichever MLB team signs Rodriguez will give him an opportunity to compete for a rotation spot. He had started in Cuba’s top league before his stint in Japan, and he worked out of the rotation for the Cuban national team during last spring’s World Baseball Classic. Clubs that feel Rodriguez has mid-rotation upside could entertain a noteworthy contract. One evaluator with whom MLBTR spoke before the beginning of the offseason suggested Rodriguez could land a guarantee between $30MM and $50MM.
The Reds have a projected rotation of Andrew Abbott, Hunter Greene, Nick Lodolo and Graham Ashcraft. Left-hander Brandon Williamson and Martinez stand as the top competitors for the #5 job. Aside from Martinez, it’s a generally young group. They’ve all shown promise at the MLB level, but each of Greene, Lodolo and Ashcraft battled injuries last season. None of Abbott, Williamson nor Martinez have ever pitched a full season out of an MLB rotation. That’s also true of Rodriguez, of course, but the Reds could view his youth and ability to work multiple innings as a strong fit as they move firmly into win-now mode after their 2022 retool.
Boston has been linked to Rodriguez more frequently throughout the winter. The 6’1″ hurler held a workout in front of Sox’s and Padres’ evaluators last month. Boston is casting a wide net on the rotation front. While they’ve been tied to top-of-the-market hurlers like Jordan Montgomery and Blake Snell, the Boston Globe’s Alex Speier recently wrote they appeared more focused on the middle tiers of the free agent class.
I would not be mad about this but I’d rather get giolito or stroman.
Giolito led the league in homers last year. I don’t think he would fare well in GABP
@Riffaxe but it would be fun to watch!
Giolito was a product of the sticky stuff. Unless he can start using it again his best days are behind him. I hope I am wrong because he was always seen as a high ceiling guy but he was a bust until the sticky stuff was prevalent and then back down to earth when it was taken away. He needs to work with Rich Hill and figure out some different grips. Stromon would be an excellent addition. Not sure why those 2 sides haven’t been connected yet or did I just miss it?
Considering he throws almost 60 percent fround balls, I would agree on Stroman. I always said I’d get every sinker baller in the league for that ballpark.
Both those would be WAY more expensive
With Matsui signed, Yariel Rodriguez is the pitcher I hope the Reds get. I believe he comes with options. Provides the Reds with either rotation or leveraged reliever depth.
Cardinals for years put their best arms on the team, even if they were young starters and put them in the bullpen the first year or two until they learned how to pitch.
If that is where the Reds are going with all this, not a bad idea, especially with Greene and Lodolo being mostly 4-5 inning pitchers so far. That may save the bullpen from getting burned out again by July.
3/4:of the league is interested in Yariel Rodriguez……..
Be nice to see other than the usual suspects land him and other significant names
F the Dodgers
If I am him, I would try to limit the years, maximize the dollars, re-enter the market later, or try to convince someone to pay him like a pitcher getting posted from Japan.
3 years/$51M or 12 years/$300M- seems like anything more or anything less would put both him and a team in an awkward position.
Nah. This guy came in at the right time amidst these massive contract signings. He’s young and a mystery coming from overseas. Potential is what teams are paying for now. Wouldn’t be surprised if he got 7 years and $85MM+. That said, he could probably best benefit waiting for Shota to sign first.
There should be an opt-out clause in case he defects from his MLB team.
The Reds seem to be amassing talent that has versatility. A second guy with swingman potential would be a good add.
This guy won’t come cheap though
Depends really. If you have concerns as an agent with him learning to pitch at the MLB level, you will definitely listen to the Reds and Pirates. Adonis Chapman is a prime example of a small market team with patience to develop them. As a red, they had to teach him to pitch at the MLB level. He ended up being one of the best closers in the game at one point. I feel Rodriguez is of a similar mold.
I think signing Jakob Junis would be a good idea. Good k rate, low BB rate, can start or come in and relief
Nobody knows where the injuries will come from, but with Martinez (and adding Yariel. Rod) plus Lodolo and Richardsoon on innings limits- Reds can address most injury situations with some degree of talent.
Rodriguez continues to work out at the Padres facility and his last showcase was for the Red Sox and Padres and was held at their facility.
So why are they not being mentioned in regard to him?
Because nobody likes the Padres. Duh….
So that is why the Padres were 2nd in attendance and MLB is using them for the Seoul Series?
Just say “I don’t know” or stay quiet.
Calm down victim. It was a joke.
Why is it that I can reply to this Joel P but not the other? I know you muted me. Do you have two accounts with the same username? And, if so, is this to continue to harass people who have muted you?
I don’t think the mute feature is working properly lately.
OR
It’s a conspiracy
You decide…….
Probably the first one, but i’m not ruling the other out
Yes, you are a joke.
Given all the injuries the Reds young pitchers have suffered, it would seem more prudent to acquire a proven innings eater.
Hire a personal chef or just throw more wet spaghetti at the wall? Either way, something’s gotta stick!
I mean really all the Reds are doing is hedging their bets a little by bringing in players with more of a track record than their own guys.
On paper, the Reds have a staggering amount of talent already on the roster. They could roll the dice, go with what they have, and maybe win the division by 10 or 15 games. They have that kind of potential.
But to their credit, they are trying to be smart by acknowledging the fact that it’s very rare for everything to work out the way you hope. So they are adding some viable alternatives.
No doubt, Don. I thoroughly agree on all points. I really dig what they (and the Orioles!) are doing. Somewhat along the same lines, I hope Pitt can turn some corners, too. Don’t mean to chap your NLC hide… sorry pal! Happy early 2024 Donnie O.!
@DonOsborne not many know that he threw with a smaller ball in Japan. In the World Baseball Classic, he hardly saw the mound because he struggled with a bigger baseball. This is where the small market teams are at an advantage due to their patience in teaching kids to throw, field, or hit. Any smart agent knows to go small before going big. Hence, Chapman
Thanks buddy. Same to you! I welcome the improvement of all NLC teams. It makes for a more interesting competition. Also, I think teams here in flyover country get overlooked sometimes. So I like when the Central gets tough.
I like when the West represents, too… but man I’m realllllly starting to dislike the nasty Blue guys up the highway a couple hours. Cheers to a happy & healthy ’24!
I do not understand this off season at all. I don’t know the exact details of how much per each year but I know the overall number and number of years and it seems like we will be paying roughly $36 million next 2 years to pagan, Martinez and candelario and another $15 million 3 years from now to candelario.
We needed 2 top of the rotation pitchers to be competitive next year and that was it. Position players except EDLC are all better than average and he is so young and talented he can be hidden in a deep lineup and not cost us games until he figures out how to hit. Bull pen was surprisingly good last year until September when they ran out of steam because starters couldn’t go any more than 4 innings most games.
Se here we are going into 2024 and we still don’t have 2 top of the rotation pitchers. Martinez is a back end if he is a starter and same for this Rodríguez. We probably got a good deal on candelario but it looks like he will be taking India at bats unless India is traded. The difference In Candelario an India might be a win and no more than 2 over the course of a season. Replacing any of Greene, lodolo, Ashcraft, all close to 5 era for their careers with a Blake snell whose era will be low 3’s if not start with a 2 or a sonny gray likewise or a Jordan Montgomery will make more of a difference than what Candelario will perform over India.
We have plenty of back end of the rotation guys with potential like greene and lodolo that we could pitch 4 & 5 in the rotation until they figure it out similar to how we can hide EDLC in the lineup. If we sign this Rodríguez say for another $12 million a year that is $48 million payroll next year on free agent signings. We could have had sonny gray $25 million and Eduardo Rodríguez $20 million both proven front of the rotation types to go with Abbott and then greene and lodolo on the back end for $45 million next year.
If greene and lodolo live up to their potential behind 2 proven aces then great we win 100 games but if they don’t and we don’t have the top of the rotation types then we win 80 games and have blown the 2nd year of our current window.
We won 82 games this year without your 2 proven aces. And without all those young guns at the beginning of the year, who were called up midseason. And with 40 different pitchers appearing for the Reds, with 17 (!) different pitchers starting a game due to extensive injuries.
I have a hard time believing they’re gonna regress to only winning 80 games. This team is a lot better than the one that started on opening day.
82 games did not get us in the playoffs. A trade for proven ace at the trade deadline would have won us 2 more games and gotten us into the playoffs.
Yes we did bring up a boat load of talent and everyone we brought up did well. However even though we didn’t have a lot of luck with health we did have a lot of luck with some statistical anomalies. Luke weaver made 8 starts from mid May until the end of June with an era close to 9 and we won all 8 games. In mid June gibout a middle reliever was 2nd in the league in wins. I wouldn’t bank on things like that happening again. We roll out a pitcher for 8 starts with an 8 era we are not likely to win any of those 8 games.
It just seems apparent what we needed was 2 top of the rotation starters and have spent enough to his off season we could have signed 2 yet we don’t have one. Not to say that we could sign them and they have a bad season or get hurt but that could happen with anybody on any team.
Greene and Ashcraft are near 50 career starts with career era’s much closer to 5 than 4. Lodolo around 25 career starts similar to Williamson and Williamson has a lower era but both in the mid 4’s. Abbott trailed off at the end of the year as well but at least his career era in 25 or so starts is in the 3’s.
These guys are what they are until they are something different which is borderline starting pitchers and the front office should plan accordingly. Going into 2024 hoping that Greene and lodolo pitch to their potential is just that a hope but a hope is not a plan. I hope we win 162 games next year but I wouldn’t plan on it no matter who we sign.
stop trolling
This might be the best way to look at this. Last years trade deadline I was screaming for a trade for a starting pitcher. We didn’t make any trades and I thought well we can go into the free agent market in the off season and be competitive in 2024.
2 guys traded at the deadline 1. Candelario and 2. Jordan Montgomery. Candelario is a good player and would have been useful when McLain got injured in September. However Marte ended up being called up and he had a better September than Candelario did with the cubs. So I really don’t think had we traded for candelario at the deadline it would have gotten us into the post season.
Had we traded for Montgomery and given him a couple of starts over weaver since weaver wasn’t cut until mid august and then 8 starts lively, green, Ashcraft, Williamson or whichever bull pen pitchers we used to make up the difference in innings between the 6 innings Montgomery is good for and the 4 any of our guys would go, then I think the 1 to 1.5 runs difference per 9 innings over 60 innings would have made up for 2 wins which is how many we missed the playoffs by.
So knowing we missed that opportunity and have a reset with free agency for 2024 and beyond what do we do. We sign candelario and not Montgomery. I have no idea what the reds payroll will be next year. Maybe we have enough budget to sign snell and Montgomery but I doubt it.
I also don’t like giving up the prospect capital this site says it is going to take to get cease and just because we have made the mistake not signing top of the rotation pitchers doesn’t mean we should exacerbate things and give up our 2 best pitching prospects to get cease. At this point all we can do is same as the front office and hope that Greene and lodolo pitch to their talent.
The Reds have no business taking on boatloads of risk by signing Snell and Montgomery to multi hundred M $$ and hoping they don’t turn into Stasburg ($245M) and Corbin ($160M) One mistake like that can send the team back into a rebuild. Two surely would as it did the Nats. It’s not the $$ as much as the guaranteed playing time that those contracts require as a result of the $$.
Corbin: 139 starts over 5 years, 5.00 ERA overall, 5.75 ERA last 3 years (94 starts) and still starting games because of the contract.
Reds should never be in the business of handing out multi hundred M $$ contracts to pitchers.
So have you been reading this site to see the asking price for cease? I think it’s our #2 lowder, #3 arroyo, #5 Phillips and #7 collier. Would you prefer we make that trade to get the type of starter we need?
We will either have to spend money or trade for those types of pitchers because to be competitive we need 2. We can like Greene and Lodolos talent and high 90 mph fast balls but in 46 career starts Greenes era is 4.72 and in 26 career starts Lodolos is 4.32. Neither has been anything other than back of the rotation types. Maybe they learn how to pitch while this window we have is open and maybe not but the thing is the older they get the more drop in velocity which would offset any learning curve they conquer.
I have always said for the reds to have a perpetual window they need to spend $120 to $140 million a year on payroll. No other team has been able to replicate the rays model. The more logical is to replicate the cardinals or be Braves “lite”. Draft and develop talent and some will hit and some miss. Take some risk on signing some guys early to team friendly deals that get a couple of years of their free agency cheap like the Braves did with acuna. Steer and McLain would be good candidates for us now. Guys we don’t sign in time like maybe India trade maybe a year away from free agency to get more prospects to develop and then sign what you need in the off season like the Braves did Olsen.
Right now it’s apparent we need pitching. Ok if not snell to a 6 year $25 million a year deal then let my cry over spilt milk and ask why we couldn’t have signed gray to a 3 year $25 million a year deal? That would add about 3 wins to have him pitching over any of our starters last year. Martinez $13 million a year for 2 years will not add any more wins than the guys we already had. Candelario $15 million a year for 3 years is a good player and probably a good deal but we have an entire infield of good players we are paying most of them league minimum next year so he really doesn’t add wins unless he plays in place of EDLC who with his talent and youth probably needs to be playing. Then pagan $8 million a year for 2 years might not be needed considering anton is back for 2024 and if we had 2 starters that could go 6 innings instead of 4 like the rest.
So grays deal was no longer term than what we have done so far and for less money per year overall but on paper would have improved us more. I understand games are not played on paper and it’s not fantasy baseball and I also understand past performance is no indication of future results but candelario could drop off as easily as snell or gray. Look at pujols, Votto and Cabrera the back of their contracts were bad no different than the pitchers you mentioned but you have to use the past performance along with age and other factors to decide no latter hitter or pitcher.
One thing we do know is that Greene and lodolo have not been the type of pitchers we need and no indication they will become the types of pitchers we need. We also know that at 32 Martinez has never been that either and unlike Greene and lodolo he doesn’t have a chance of becoming that.
You’re assuming the Reds “need” something they don’t. I’d refer you to the article you are commenting on. If they signed Rodriguez, along with Pagan and Martinez, they have greatly improved pitching. With Rodriguez/Martinez/Pagan and better health this year for existing staff, they have all the quality pitching depth they need.
They have depth but not quality. What about the career era and whip of Greene, lodolo, Ashcraft, Williamson and now Martinez says they are quality pitchers and we can even define quality as league average or above?
I was wanting a trade for a starting pitcher at last years trade deadline so I did an exercise. Can’t remebeber the exact specifics but basically whatever Abbott and Williamson’s career starts were at the time let’s say 18 filtered for that since the start of the 2022 season to get the entirety of Greene, lodolo and ashcrafts careers. So it was like 18 starts for Williamson and Abbott, 25 for lodolo and 40 for Greene and Ashcraft.
So the criteria was 18 or more starts from the start of 2022 thru July 31 2023. Like 220 such pitchers. Some guys like Abbott and Williamson were not in the majors in 2022 and some that pitched in 2022 were retired or cut in 2023 but around 220 total. I looked at 4 things: era, whip, k/9 and k/bb.
Abbott of course had not fallen off by then and ranked like top 30 in all categories, Williamson actually was our next best and ranked around 120 which would be slightly below average if 220 qualified. Lodolo was next on both era and whip and ranked around 140 but his l rate was like top 10. Greene and Ashcraft ranked around 170 in both era and whip but Greene did rank like 7th in k rate. Unfortunately runs (era) is the most important because runs equals losses on a pitches ledgers.
We know that lodolo didn’t pitch after august and I doubt Greene and Ashcraft improved their career numbers any after that and likely Abbott went down but not out of the top 100 I wouldn’t think. So if the criteria of quality is average or better the only one we can truly say is quality that we have is Abbott.
Maybe the others turn things around and granted with 25 career starts for lodolo, Abbott and Williamson can’t really start to project a trend but with 50 career starts like Greene and Ashcraft that is the start of a decent trend and it doesn’t look promising that either will be quality pitchers. I hope I am wrong but again a hope is not a plan.
I am being generous as well to define quality as average or better. Quality in my mind is the type of pitchers perennial playoff teams like the dodgers and Braves have at the top of their rotations. In fact compare Greene to Spencer strider of the Braves in career era and whip. They both have about 50 career starts and similar age.
For a guy like this, I believe a small market like Reds, Rays, and Pirates would be the best situation for him. A big market Club like the Yankees will eat him up if he doesn’t come out of the gate blazing. His agent really needs to put this into considerations
Big market, small market…the differences are overblown regarding the pressures of one vs. another.
Not really, small markets have more patience and won’t give up on them after a bad season or outing. Yankees, Red Sox, Astros, Dodgers, and other big market teams will bury him if he doesn’t come firing out of the gate. Then sign or trade for someone who can give them what they wanted from Rodriguez
This would be a good sign….2 years $12M seems reasonable.
99.9% sure he’ll get more on both.
Saw him pitch several times. Glad my Pads aren’t in on him. Best of luck to whoever signs him. He’s a 4+ era waiting to happen.
Breslow operating like Bloom….. How many months til the Bloom haters jump on the hate Breslow train?
Many are on the platform as we speak. Boston has never been known for patience.
A really good team loses 62 games a year.
Therefore its not “ all about winning”
Change the mindset to “ it’s all about giving your best”
The other key is, if you are playing you are winning
Note: the only team that wins a World Series, is based on the select group, who makes that decision, ahead of time
He would be a good bullpen addition but I would hope they get an experienced major league starter to lead the rotation for a couple of years and teach these kids something.
A far cry from Glasnow but hey at least you don’t have to give up any of those future HOF infielders y’all have just sitting around…
Wander Franco is a statutory rapist allegedly
That’s kind of old news. I wonder though how the Rays managed to miss that? You would think, an organization like the Rays would have done a ton of research and investigations on Franco before dropping a franchise record contract on him.
I couldn’t comment on that post so I did it here
This is a guy Jed should be looking at, he’s young and Cubs need an arm like this in the bullpen.
By my calculations there are only 11 SP left unsigned on the Top 50 FA list: Snell, Montgomery, Imanaga, Giolito, Stroman, Maeda, Y. Rodriguez(#7), Clevinger, Lorenzen, Manea, & Montas. Not sure if small market teams get more than 1 of the first 5.or 6, so Y. Rodriguez may be about as high as Reds can go with out a substantial overpay. The last 4 all have some question marks and hardly can be considered TOR SP. There’s 3 SP in the honorable mention, but Kershaw is not healthy, Paxton, and Ryu (meh)- then beggars banquet. I’d take Rodiguez if 4/ $38MM with an optout after 2025 got it done.
Maeda signed with Detroit.
I stand corrected
They would be TOR SP in Cincinnati, because they have no one else.
They already let a lot of needed talent slip by, just like Po Boy did last offseason and up to the trade deadline. Dude can’t build a complete legit major league roster.
Reds have at least done something. Cubs were about a good as Reds at the end of last season. They lost Bellinger, Candelario, Stroman etc,- and have done nothing. They are already about $80MM over Reds 2024 payroll and need to add about another $80MM to be competitive. Talent is surely slipping by them.
What I have read says snell is going for 6 years and $25 million a year and Montgomery 4 years $21 million a year. Sonny gray went 3 years $25 million a year and Eduardo Rodríguez 4 years $20 million a year. Let’s just say we could have had either snell or gray both I consider aces and either Rodríguez or Montgomery both I consider solid #2’s for $46 million a year.
We have already added $36 million with candelario, Martinez and pagan and so another $10 million with this Rodríguez is $46 million. That would be 180 innings each of say gray and Montgomery over Martinez and this Rodríguez that is probably a difference of 6 more wins (3 each). If we assume EDLC 3b, McLain shortstop, Marte 2nd and India 1st base then candelario is taking at bats away from one of them. I don’t see he is 6 wins better than any. Maybe 2 wins better than EDLC assuming EDLC doesn’t improve which is likely and maybe 1 win better than India. I would argue that candelario = less wins than McLain or Marte.
Then we have pagan in the pen. Will he move the needle 5 games? Maybe none considering we will have anton back and if we had signed a hose 2 top of the rotation starters that can go more innings we wouldn’t tax the bullpen as much as last year.
I just don’t see how we have improved after spending an additional $36 million a year for the next 2 years and now possibly another $10 million a year. Seems like money is the most valuable resource for a small market team especially when his one and I am not comfortable spending like we have on what we have knowing that we might never spend this way again for several years.
Votto/Senzel/Newman/Barrero combined for 974 PAs with very subpar OPS+ of 84.
Candelario had 576 PAs with OPS+ of 119.
In addition, all of the young infielders spent significant time on DL last year, every one.
If you don’t see how Candelario improves the Reds in ’24, can’t help you then.
None of those four mentioned above were going to have any significant role on the Reds in 2024.
With CES, Steer, McLain, EDLC, Marte, India around, four of which didn’t start the season with them in 2023, Candelario was quite frankly not needed as much as pitching.
If you can’t see that, and like Po Boy think continuing to collect infielders is what helps them, no one can help you.
JB, you’re spot on. With Candelario you have 3 positions covered: 3B, 1B, and DH. Marte can cover 3B, SS, and 2B. EDLC 3B, SS. McLain 3B, SS, 2B. CES 1B, 3B, DH. India 2B only, he is the weak link in a much improved and extremely versatile infield. Now when the inevitable injuries occur you have a frontline player stepping up, not Senzel, Barrero, or Newman. Trade India for relief pitching and go deep in the OF, because Steer can always move back to the IF as needed.
The Reds 2024 lineup is SO much better than the 2023 opening day lineup and much improved from even the end of season version.
Pirates might have a more legit role in the negotiations if he is prioritizing starting.
With the Pirates he would have a legit opportunity to start given their current rotation is questionable even with the recent pickups
I still see him as a better than average reliever but below average starter.. disclaimer: have not actually seen him pitching.
It wouldn’t be a big splash acquisition but does show the pirates are trying to setup for a real run in 2025.
I wonder where he will go myself. I have seen Astros in the list but supposedly they are broke so not sure if would get him but have heard them as a top one with international signings over the years.
But we have him, Cease (If he does go), Giolito, Snell, The one that has 2 weeks left, Montgomery, Corbin, Manaa, and other pitchers.
Relief even with Astros they lost Nerris and Stanek and have seen or heard nothing with them. A lot of talk with Trading Bregman, Valdez etc. to help the money situation. But I do not see Astros tanking or such but will they be all that this season. Still a lot of talk they will be at top again. We shall see on that.
But I do wonder if things will heat up here come January. Bellinger where will he end up. I know focused on my team at moment but just since their name has been mentioned with Rodriguez.
Talk too on Astros not doing anything but relying on internal and getting reclamation projects. They need someone in the bullpen that can fill the void with Nerris and Maton. Stanek seemed to be falling some last couple of seasons.
But will see what the moves that have been made will be for the teams that made them. Yankees, Dodgers to this point of big ones.
I love these “reports” which are simply press releases from the players agent.
Who would sign a guy that sits out a season to get out of a contract. Doesn’t sound like a guy that will play for you. Sounds like another loser.