The Red Sox’ offseason search for starting pitching hasn’t yet produced any results, although that’s in large part due to the holdup that Yoshinobu Yamamoto is placing on the market. Alex Speier of the Boston Globe breaks down the Sox’ interest in Yamamoto and the manner in which said interest has thus far prevented them from making offers elsewhere on the market (e.g. Aaron Nola, Sonny Gray, Eduardo Rodriguez). With Boston hoping to lure Yamamoto to Fenway Park, it’s at least understandable if the team doesn’t feel comfortable putting forth offers in the vicinity that those other pitchers signed — ranging from $75MM to $172MM — while simultaneously keeping enough powder dry to put forth the type of massive offer Yamamoto will command.
The Yamamoto interest hasn’t been as much of a detriment on a trade market that has largely remained idle, however. Speier reports that the Sox approached the Mariners about their cadre of controllable starting pitchers but were generally rebuffed. Whether that was due to the quality of their offer (or lack thereof), or simply due to the Mariners being unwilling to move someone from the George Kirby, Logan Gilbert, Bryce Miller, Bryan Woo quartet isn’t clear.
However, Mariners president of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto suggested at last week’s Winter Meetings that a trade of one of their young big league starters doesn’t seem likely (link via Adam Jude of the Seattle Times). Dipoto acknowledged “constant” inquiries regarding his young rotation before casting doubt on whether he’d actually make a move involving anyone from the bunch.
“We’ll see what the market bears,” said Dipoto, who’s entering his ninth season as the leader of Mariners baseball operations. “We are going to lean into the thing we do well, and if opportunity presents itself, we have to listen. But by and large, we pitch it; we catch it. We’re very good at developing young players, and we’re going to continue to focus on those things.”
On the one hand, the Mariners and Red Sox seem like natural trade partners. The Mariners are deep controllable young pitchers who’ve had MLB experience. The Red Sox have several promising, controllable hitters who’ve made their big league debuts already (e.g. Triston Casas, Jarren Duran, Ceddanne Rafaela) and, in some cases, had a good bit of success.
The price to acquire controllable young pitching is always steep, however — particularly when talking about players who’ve already had as much success as Kirby and Gilbert or those with six full seasons of control, like Miller and Woo. The Mariners could well prefer more established hitters. Similarly, the Sox might be loath to part with much in the way of immediate MLB production in the lineup, as the free-agent market isn’t exactly deep in bats to replace any outgoing hitters.
To be clear, there’s no indication the two parties can’t or won’t revisit talks — just as there’s no indication the Mariners will staunchly turn away any and all inquiries on their excellent rotation. To the contrary, Dipoto acknowledged to Jude that for the “right player” with another club, the Mariners “will consider just about anything.”
It’s been a generally quiet offseason for both teams in terms of notable additions. Boston has picked up Tyler O’Neill in a trade with the Cardinals, but the offseasons of Boston and particularly Seattle thus far have drawn more headlines for their subtractions than their new acquisitions. The Sox traded Alex Verdugo to the archrival Yankees, while the M’s have traded away Eugenio Suarez, Jarred Kelenic and Marco Gonzales. In doing so, they’ve substantially reduced the team strikeout rate and freed up some resources to perhaps bring in some offense via the free-agent and/or trade market. Seattle has been connected to free agents Jorge Soler and J.D. Martinez over the past week, while rumored trade interest has included the likes of Randy Arozarena, Isaac Paredes, Josh Naylor and (before he was traded to Boston) O’Neill. The Red Sox, meanwhile, continue to search for ways to upgrade their starting staff.
Nothing here, Red Sox don’t have any bats available that they can part with from major league roster so this isn’t news that mariners said no to prospects
Bnick – Not true, the Red Sox have a plethora of outfielders.
They also have a great middle infielder who they’d love to trade, former Rockies star.
Another bargain from Blooms reign of terror planning in the long term to get rid of Boggarts when he could have had him cheaper years ago.
Bloom’s reign of terror? You don’t think the job was awarded to him without certain understandings? I Blame ownership more than Bloom because if it wasn’t a mandate, don’t you think DD would have remained?
Well, this is speculation on my part, but, given what actually happened during Bloom’s years, it looks like ownership had a tolerance for payroll that approached the first CBT level, but Bloom let his trade deadline waffles get away from him in 2022 so that the team got stuck paying a little bit of tax but, much worse, losing a lot of positional slots in its draft picks as QO compensation (and losing Intern’l money, too). And then there’s the matter that, given funds to work with, Bloom did not settle on good ways to spend it, including some that looked like simple capitulation at high doses to placate the roar of the greasepaint (Story, Devers). He did not have an obvious felt sense for who is and who is not a good or useful player–except for the baldest of waiver claims.
“don’t you think DD would have remained?”
Lets not be revisionists, DD was fired, midseason. So he would have no choice, but to leave.
You think Bloom had the final say on the big money contracts?
If what was reported was true, botching the deal to move Sale to the Rangers for some prospects and Texas taking the full salary was the final straw.
Dewey – The only “mandate” MIGHT have been Mookie and Price. Dumping the entire 2018 roster was not Ownership’s idea that’s all on Bloom.
Troll. You really think Bloom made the decisions on Bogie and Devers? Bogie was so overpaid, I have no issues. Devers? Fans caused ownership to overpay. Ownership could have signed both for more reasonable deals but didn’t want to spend. When SD and the Mets started to, the game changed and Boston and the Cubs are the last two big market teams to catch up.
Absolutely correct. Breslow is under the same rules as Bloom I’m sure. He just talks a better game.
Absolutely true Breslow is just another Bloom under the thumb of John Henry.
Story for a Mariners young SP is a definite no go.
I was gonna say, Haven’t the Mariners sent everyone packing who calls about their pitching? You’d think people could take a hint.
fljay – What if the Sox also pay half of Story’s remaining contract?
We know how much the M’s value money.
Dunno Fever. Believe Story has a good chance to come back and be fairly productive, better chance than say.. Cronenworth in an article newer than this and Cro is owed 70m.
Hang onto Story another season, not much rdy at upper levels of the system to both find a 2b, then another SS if have to pay maybe half Story’s deal AND give up a decent prospect.
It’s going to have to be an overpay to get the Mariners to even consider a trade.
Fever – Why would Seattle even be interested in Story. They are set right now. They have awesome pitching and they have a young set of hitters who will get better.
They wouldn’t have parted with Suarez if they weren’t happy with their hitting.
Seattle is set. Just because they have what we need doesn’t mean they would want to trade.
If Seattle is “set” then get set for a 70 win season. You aren’t replacing Geno, Teo and Kelenic with Marlowe Trammell and Urias and calling it an upgrade
As the Mariners look for improvements, ZiPS projects Seattle at 85-90 wins with its current roster:
blogs.fangraphs.com/2024-zips-projections-seattle-…
wouldn’t say that, story above mentioned both Casas and Duran, both have 5y service time left. M’s might be just simply looking for a “killing” on any type of starter trade with Boston not willing to give up a long term controllable pler from the starting 9 (casas/Duran), then asked to include a Roman Anthony/Kyle Teel/Marcello mayer (1) as well.
If the ask is close to what just described? Wouldn’t be interested on any of the M’s starters myself.
John – Agreed! It doesn’t make sense to trade talented inexpensive controllable young position players just to fill holes in the starting rotation, not when there are so many free agent starting pitchers still available.
The only time they should trade good young position players is to fill a hole that can’t be filled via free agency.
Fever.. Via FA is how they should be looking at the roation this offseason. 1yr control of Sale (25m aav), so myself see no reason the team shouldn’t be attempting to sign Montgomery now, then hope yamamoto chooses them with Sale off the books following the ’24 season.
Team needs starters and anyone can see it, trying to force starting onto Houck and Whitlock (example) was not smart, it’s time to spend the money in the area Boston needs help and has for several seasons.
John – Excellent post, it will happen. I really don’t want to trade away good talent for Burnes.
M’s and Sox are in similar situations with a lot of young controllable talent, lopsided on one side of pitching and positions. There is much more risk associated with pitchers than position players but there are fewer to go around. Honestly, both teams should spend their way to roster balance than be trading their most prized assets.
What if it can’t be filled affordably in FA?
Problem is that those young players aren’t necessarily that valuable. Casas is a good hitter, but he’s a 1B man, and honestly should be a DH. You’re not getting a great young pitcher for a DH. So then you need to add on to it. Sox probably need to offer Casas+Myers to pry a young starter loose, and I don’t blame them for balking at that price.
Johnsilver- Doubt that would do it. Kirby is a top 10-20 SP already and has a ton of control. Young, controllable, quality SP has proven to be valued greater than young, controllable, quality bats.
Kirby and Gilbert are not on the market.
I think the Mariners should definitely keep the Yankees on speed dial, as a good trading partner. I notice Matt Brash(reliever)and Emerson Hancock(starter) were not on that list.
The Yankees and the Mariners both cant hit. Who are the Yankees trading for Hancock or Brash?
What young healthy mlb ready hitting prospects do the yankees even have?
The problem is that Yankee prospects historically haven’t lived up to their hype. Jay Beuner did.
Was Jay Buhner really a top Yankee prospect when he was dealt for Ken Phelps, or was he just a guy who happened to fill out & blossom in Seattle? I was really young then so don’t quite know the real story.
@Bnickles bingo my dude. My guess is this was probably before they dealt Doogie. When you’re gauging interest and trying to get a good young pitcher, the M’s are a likely starting point. It’s not unreasonable for the Sox to think that they should offer Doogie for Logan or Miller, for example, even if the Mariners would never have done it.
These sorts of articles are strange, there isn’t really a rumor here. It’s as iif someone in mlbtr really wants mommy and daddy to kiss but they just won’t, not publically, not even under the mistletoe.
Trader Jerry!
If there is a trade match for the Mariners in relation to young pitching, it is with the Reds.
I think the Orioles match up better.
how’s this for a Mariners/O’s insane trade?
sodomojo.com/posts/does-a-massive-potential-trade-…
Orioles get:
George Kirby RHP (& his 5 yrs of control)
Dylan Moore Utility IF
Mariners get
Jackson Holliday IF
Anthony Santander RF/DH/1B
Austin Hays LF
cash
(…and the 99 yr lease rights for the property around Camden)
I think the M’s are harboring a grudge for the Eric Bedard highway robbery.
I can’t believe a writer actually pitched this uneven trade benefitting Seattle.
India is horrible option for Ms
The Orioles are the best possible trade partner given the ludicrous strength of their farm system and having more young controllable bats than any team in baseball by far.
IF Seattle wanted prospects I can’t argue with that. But, just like the Orioles they want to compete with their core so proven controlled major league bats is what they seek.
Do we have to hear about every non-trade out of Boston? Just more hate mail from the local media.
So you don’t think this article rolled a 66?
Would Jeff McNeil, a SS prospect and Allan/ Megill/ or Jarvis entice the Mariners to part with Kirby or Logan Gilbert ? Than the Mets can put Jett or Acuna at 2b
McNeil is under an extension and coming off a down season. I don’t know that Seattle would be enticed by in a deal like that unless NY ate a large part of that contract.
There isn’t a snowballs chance that we would be giving up 4 years of ace club control for anything less than a true superstar and some top prospects. Getting rid of spare and average parts isn’t getting a deal for either one of those. For a Miller or Woo, maybe there could be something. But Kirby is an ace with either 3 or 4 years of club control and Gilbert is getting up there as well with one more year on top of that. No chance unless its for a superstar.
I’m not quite sure if I’d consider Logan Gilbert an Ace quite yet. He is a very talented young pitcher and has pitched to a #2 or #3 numbers so far. He’s an incredibly valuable pitcher with that kind of control though and a guy most teams would like to have.
I mean, if it was me, I wouldn’t be interested in McNeil. I’d only take him as an additional player if I was also getting one of NY’s top 10 prospects.
Is Glibert an ace? Probably not. But he looks like a reliable #2 and that is extraordinarily valuable in this market. He might as well be an ace considering the supply and demand.
I agree on your assessment of Logan. Although he is not yet an “ace,” it could be argued that his actual trade value is at its peak right now; because of the salary to war ratio, team control left and perceived CEILING still yet to be realized
@sodomjo
Agreed, 4 years of cost controlled, young pitching who may not even peeked yet is insanely valuable.
FWIW over the past two seasons 26-year-old righthander Logan Gilbert ranks 26th among all pitchers with 6.3 fWAR (despite trailing teammates Luis Castillo and George Kirby).
Who cares. Seattle isn’t in the market for giving up their one advantage over other teams. They have great pitching depth.
People. The idiot that suggested trading with Seattle to start this hole discussion didn’t consider things from Seattle’s side. They don’t want to part with them even more than we don’t want to part with Mayer or Teel.
It’s not going to happen.
You’re overstating his success but I think we all understand the sentiment. I think it would take a big bat prospect haul to get either. Something like Cowser (top 15 prospect), Ortiz (top 50 prospect), and a couple organizational top 20 guys from the Orioles to get either Kirby or Gilbert. A nearly prohibitive trade package. But that’s also what it should take to acquire a very good young starting pitcher.
The only 3 starters the M’s would consider trading is Hancock, Woo, or Miller. Kirby & Gilbert are far too valuable.
I would think no, but taking part of Robbie Ray’s contract on might get them to listen. particularly if it’s for Gilbert. Kirby’s extra year of control and better peripheral numbers probably takes him out of consideration for that. I could see adding Ray and say 20 million or so of what he’s owed making that package more interesting to them.
The only way that gets done is if the ownership is literally pulling the plug and going full on John Fisher. In which case, watch for everyone but Julio to be moved right after.
If that coincided with say signing Snell or Yamamoto it could some sense without being a full selloff. I agree it doesn’t happen, but the idea of moving Ray likely gets the to listen to almost anything. If the floated 150 million payroll is what they have, they’re going to need to be creative to improve. Losing Gilbert on its own in that trade makes them worse short term, but if they used the savings to add a big-name pitcher it could make sense all while bolstering the lineup and adding more pieces to the farm/trade pipeline, there’s some sense to it. It’s not happening, but it’s not without merit.
Mariners aren’t looking for prospects at this point. they’re looking to add experienced Major leaguers. I wish people would stop bringing up Logan Gilbert’s name.
They aren’t looking to collect prospects per se, but it doesn’t mean they don’t want them, it could be part of a 3 team trade, they could be flipped afterward, and ultimately if they really want to build the “Rays PNW”, they’re going to need cheap young talent. I wouldn’t say they won’t take prospects, just that they need Major League talent more than they need prospects. They could plan on using them in the roster immediately too.
ZERO chance the Mariners would do anything but quickly hang up the phone. A low A prospect coming off a blown elbow and a meh Jeff McNeill won’t get a guy like Gilbert. Do people give these proposals any sort of thought?
Horrible trade offer
Jvent – Nope. Nonstarter.
Logan & Kirby are far too valuable. Try shopping at the Miller, Woo, Hancock their.
There is no way Boston is giving up Casas who is a power hitting machine just developing (I’ve been wrong before…). Duran though had a great run and is tradable to a team that doesn’t need him to play center.
I’d give up Casas yesterday for Kirby, Gilbert, or Miller! All hit not D first baseman prospects are valuable, but not like SPs
I’d give Casas for Kirby maybe Gilbert. Not a chance I’d give Casas for Miller.
Both Miller and Woo probably gets them talking. No way that trade happens.
The only reason I consider trading Casas he is a first baseman and it’s a pretty easy position to replace. The problem is I believe and have always believed that Casas is going to be one of the best hitters in baseball. He would immediately slot in behind Julio for protection and if they add a DH like Turner, I don’t think JDM is a good fit in Seattle, the offense would be greatly improved. I would consider both Miller and Woo for Casas it’s an interesting idea.
I don’t trade Casas given how little he’s going to cost in the next few years for anyone on Seattle’s staff without better analyzing how their pitchers fare on the road. Admittedly, I’m not up to speed and that’s on me. This article caught me by surprise.
Bruin – Sox already have a replacement for Casas, his name is Devers.
If Casas can return a solid young starting pitcher, AND help improve the defense at 3B, I say do it.
Or am I the only one who thinks the Sox need a better defensive 3B?
We aren’t giving Kirby for casas straight up.
Same with Gilbert I hope.
Fever, you’re not alone. Casas has future MVP across his back. Devers cannot play third but Casas can learn first with guidance. Mankeiwicz (sorry for the spelling) should be brought in to work with him.
Trading any of our young players for pitching, when it is so plentiful on the market, is ludicrous. Casas is a potential 50 homeruns a year in a couple of years… for less than 1 mil a year.
We all want good players. You dont fill your roster with good players by getting rid all of your good players. Want to know happens when you do? Look at the past two years!!!
Seriously. You all need to go easy on the eggnog.
GG Doug Mientkiewicz. Great idea.
Not sure Doug and the Sox are on speaking terms after that WS ball thing though….
A lot of Boston fans are way too in love with Casas. Have you looked at his defensive stats lately? Worst defender on the team (-10 OAA) per Baseball Savant. If youre committed to improving defense, thats the easiest place to start. Just by having a better glove at 1B, the entire infield will see a small uptick in defense.
A tradable young stud will bring back the type of SP the Sox need. Ya gotta give something to get something.
Sounds like somebody who didn’t watch him much. He was really bad in the first half of the season for whatever reason. He was much better defensively the second half of the season. Even more importantly he was pretty good defensively in the minors at first base. I’m not saying he’s going to be gold glove there but he should be just fine moving forward. Would be interesting to see OAA over time with him I seem to remember seeing him at -14 oaa sometime in early July. If that’s the case he was 4 oaa in the last couple of months that would sync up with the eye test.
Hopefully he improves in time. I want Devers as the future DH but he doesn’t have to be a Mattingly or Hernandez. The team just needs great defensive SS and 2B players so Devers and Casas can cheat towards the lines. Having Pedie at second allowed almost any first baseman to be successful, etc.
Dewey – You could put two Ozzie Smiths between Devers and 2B and the guy would still mishandle 50 a year. There is ONLY ONE ANSWER and why it doesn’t happen for the good of the team is beyond me.
He’s not a little bad he’s the worst of all time!!! There is a significant difference and it’s so well documented that there is no excuse for not fixing it.
I am no Boston fan, but it’s really risky to trade Casas. He has Matt Olson vibes to me, which means a 50 homer year may be in the cards at some point.
Seattle would likely seek a hitter more established than Jarren Duran, who finally had a productive partial season this year at age 26 after posting negative 0.4 fWAR in each of his two previous campaigns,
*Trade didn’t happen*
**Article published reporting on non-trade**
Slow offseason, guys.
At least it is not another rehash of the ridiculous Ohtani contract.
See reds fans? you can stop with the “trade for gilbert comments.” Its just not going to happen. The mariners aren’t going to give up gilbert, it’s not that simple.
I disagree. We would just have to be blown away to give him up. Miller and a reliever for Marte and India I could see. But Gilbert has a trade value in the upper 60s, low 70s and thats gonna hurt to acquire. But they definately have the hitting to get it done.
Miller for Marte? Lol that’s not happening.
Mariners fans are awfully confident for a team with 1 playoff appearance in the last 20 years.
Why wouldn’t that happen? Miller has #3 potential and 6 years of club control Marte has almost the exact same trade value as Miller. Its actually an extremely fair evaluation if you look at what contract each would get on the open market. Each have a need that the other fills and the prices are comparable. Marte isnt exactly Holliday on the prospect list.
Marte was a top 20 prospect who hit the ground running in 2023. Miller is a decent mid rotation arm.
You laugh that off, but Miller has already proven himself to be a respectable number 4 starter at the least, and if he refines any of his out-pitches, he’s a number 2 or 3.
Marte hasn’t barely got his feet wet. He hasn’t proven anything. The idea of swapping those two would probably require an additional player from both teams, but it’s a pretty even as-is.
Keep in mind, Miller still has 6 full years of control, because his promotion came late.
*Has barely got his feet wet.
I’m too tired for this crap today. Feel free laugh at me.
A mid rotation arm isn’t worth Marte. That doesn’t add up.
Whatever
I do not think Miller for Marte is outlandish. Both BTV and some back of the envelope math of Expected Value vs Expected Cost on both players indicates, they are fairly close in in trade value. A cheap young cost controlled mid-rotation arm who happens to have one of the leagues better starting pitching fastballs, has quite a bit of value.
FWIW, I’m still not sold on what BTV is doing in its entirety. but overall, it appears fairly close to the way teams value trades, from what I can tell.
And I know it’s an intangible, but what I really love about Miller is that he’s such a cool cucumber. This guy’s feathers cannot be ruffled. Laid back Texan. But now that I think about it, all of our starting pitchers are really calm under pressure (except perhaps Ray.)
With Po Boy in charge, it isn’t. Dude can break up a team but not assemble a major league one very well.
Dude, no one in the world uses “Po Boy’. The paraphrase Mean Girls, “Po Boy ain’t happening’.
Somebody seems obsessed with teenage B movies. To each their own.
Gilbert may very well get traded, but the Mariners would be dumb to just jump unless they got an offer they couldn’t pass on.
I don’t see the match but okay…
I severely doubt that Breslow is going to get Yamamoto and when he does not what is his game plan? Sign more dumpster players ? With this roster being so mediocre do you really think that you are going to attract major free agents unless you overpay for them. You’re going to get the usual tgat we were in on everything but came away empty.
M’s will never get to a World Series with the current owners and mgmt. They are too focused on winning just enough to keep butts in the seats (The ol’ 54% approach).
Neat!
This is just what folks used to call “a slow news day”. And in baseball at this time of year, just about every day is a slow news day. Up to now, not much has even been whispered.
So the writers, trying to earn a living, talk about every little bit of murmer, no matter how wispy.
And we wait. And we count the days.
Well, it beats hearing about Ohtani and his preference for deodorant lol
I don’t understand Yamamoto is only one pitcher. Sox need at least 3 starters.
Nothing to date and they’re waiting on him to do what sign with another team?
This slow pace will only result in 3rd tier pitching like they had last year which means yet another basement finish.
You aren’t going to fix every hole bloom left in the roster in one offseason. You don’t even try.
Pick your guys at your price, don’t be desperate. Over 2 or even 3 offseason everything will fall into place, one piece at a time.
GA – I can’t believe you just wrote that after experiencing the Bloom years. Don’t give the new guy lots of time. Evaluate him by the spring and if he hasn’t made big inroads then fire him and get a person who knows how to do the job and acquire talent.
No more hoping. We need action now.
TF – I do expect SOME progress to be made along the way. Within 3 seasons an ALCS if not WS berth is obtainable. But you aren’t necessarily getting all the way there this year due to certain obstacles (available free agents, ownership not allowing Devers to be traded or moved to dh, etc)
Sox – Three starters? So you’re expecting a 7-man rotation? Ummm …. don’t think so.
The Red Sox have Sale, Bello, Pivetta, Crawford, Houck and Whitlock already. They don’t need more depth pitching (would have no use for a 3rd added starter)- they need 1-2 front-to-mid rotation starters.
This article is literally about them trying to acquire more starting pitching.
The last three you mentioned WC should be in the pen, especially Whitlock and Houck.
I would prefer Whitlock and Houck in the pen based on their past performances, although the Red Sox certainly haven’t given up on them and Whitlock may get expensive if he’s a mid reliever.
But Crawford? You don’t know what you’re talking about.
I really like Houck and Whitlock as lockdown longmen out of the pen. Those two would be such prodigious weapons a la Andrew Miller if they didn’t have to be utilized as starters. I think the Red Sox underestimate what they could have there.
Dewey – Houck is a starter not a reliever. His whole career except for a Cora brain cramp he’s been a starter. He was our best starter before people started dicking around with his role. If he’s given a charter of being a starter again, he will perform as well as Bello. They are the 3 & 4 SPs when Boston gets 2 new SPs. Sale can jump to the 3rd spot in the rotation but if Cora is here I wouldn’t count on Sale. With two new SPs the rotation is NEW SP1, NEW SP2, Bello, Houck and Crawford. With Whitlock as the stress guy and PIvetta the long reliever. They have plenty of depth just nothing at the top of the pitching pyramid. So Breslow needs to go fill the two spots and nobody should care how much it costs since ownership did this to us by hiring Bloom and letting him stay too long..
The team has so few thing to do to pick up 15 to 20 wins but they simply won’t do the obvious. Devers to DH is #1, 2 SP that are elite is #2, a new 3B is #3, a left handed reliever/clsoer like Hader is #4, a new quality 2B is #5 but isn’t as critical as the other items. Trading Yoshida is a must if Devers isn’t traded. Redundancy at positions isn’t depth when it’s the DH spot. It’s stupidity.
That’s not a lot to accomplish. Use the farm system to get the SPs or sign FAs, it doesn’t matter. It must happen. Not moving Devers will limit the upside of the team. Using both Devers and Yoshida in the field will limit the team to an even greater degree. We will witness a reenactment of the Bloom years if the DEVERS/YOSHIDA/DH problem isn’t resolved by making one the DH and the other a person traded to get things we need.
We have lots of wasted money ($70MM) on three guys who won’t earn their pay. Reducing that number is in the best interest of the ball club.
I like Houck, but he was purely a starter all of last year and the results weren’t great (5.01 ERA, 4.3 xERA). Pivetta has very little experience as a reliever outside of being a piggy-back starter. For your idea, I’d recommend combining the two every 5 days for best results.
The Red Sox have been clear that Devers isn’t go to be the DH, so not much use debating it. Ideally they would get a player who could platoon with Devers and Yoshida to give both DH time, but that’s probably wishful thinking.
Josh Hader turned down a 20.3mil qualifying offer. Adding Hader for ~20mil/yr would put ~20% of their payroll into 3 relievers. Yuki Matsui from Japan and Tanner Scott (trade) from Miami are some interesting names that won’t break the bank. Aroldis Chapman is another option.
KD17 /trolled keeps insisting that Houck is a starter when all the evidence points to the contrary.
Red Sox will probably wind up with something along the lines of Giolito and Manaea. They are likely to just do the bare minimum to show the fans they are trying to win.
I like the looks of Marcus Stroman in that rotation. Remember his 1st half in Chicago before getting hurt? Yeah the Red Sox would take an entire season of that. I think he’s supposed to be healthy.
The RedVines and Oreos look like best trade partners if the Gorton’s Fishermen want to trade pitching for hitting. I’m not the biggest fan of DH only players but they should make a strong push for Martinez if reluctant to trade talent away.
Dipoto just cleared a bunch of payroll space, so signing JD Martinez to like a one-year deal makes a lot of sense, plus no pitching is sacrificed in a trade, win-win I think. Martinez wouldn’t be breaking the bank either so this is a legitimate option. I think.
So sick of Dipoto. He clearly has no actual game plan this winter other than to try to reduce payroll for no reason. Wouldn’t be surprised if he ended up trading all of our young pitchers and also just exploded the team
Your right. Its all Dipoto. This is all cause of him.
Its annoying AF hearing everyone complain like Dipoto is the one with the checkbook. Like he’d intentionally undercut himself by 50 mil for the “challenge of it”. He wants the payroll, doesnt have the payroll, so he’s making do with what he’s got like most people do.
I think he’s fair game because he has willingly cut excuses for ownership the last three years, often in a somewhat condescending fashion. For example, last offseason he told reporters (paraphrasing) that ‘….frankly, there wasn’t a lot of great options in this free agent class’. This year we got the we’re-doing-the-fans-a-favor nonsense.
He has been thrown under the bus, but he seems to be comfortable with tire tracks across his back.
Bingo!
Dipoto!
No plan!
what ive come to realize(and its been writen about) DiPoto dosnt know how to sign good FA hitters!! Name one? He trades. Biggest FA signing………Ray.
Free agent hitters don’t want to come to Seattle because many before them saw their numbers drop.
in all fairness; Seattles rev from TV, cable, media has taken a hit. Contract got sold, new owners upped the fees to subscribers, 1000’s of subscribers cancelled. Look at the other teams that took a hit from thier broadcast deal that went bankrupt or closed up and MLB had to take it over.
If the mariners and Red Sox are “natural trade partners” right now then I might as well give up on offseason and being a fan of mariners because they need some proven hitters after what they’ve stupidly and cheaply given away. Red Sox aren’t trading Devers or Yoshida so there’s no match for Mariners SP unless it’s Emerson Hancock lol
I’d give you Devers for my pick of 2 young SP from your rotation, and pay down $10m/yr!
I’m all for that, GA, and then turn right around and trade for Justin Foscue from Texas (maybe Yorke, Perales, and a lower minor prospect would do it).
Yoshida can go as well. Guy is a DH getting paid as an everyday OF.
Agree on Yoshida because of his lack of a glove. I do expect him to hit consistently next year but trades should help both sides. If Yoshida is traded, Duran takes left and leads off. Then re-sign Duvall. My question is can O’Neill play right?
Abreu plays right, O’Neil is the righty platoon guy for both Duran and Abreu.
@ Newyork . on Yoshida I would be fine with dumping him and his contract for a good 3baseman. Devers to DH then where he belongs.
Bruin1012 – Rafaela before Abreu just look at how EVERYONE ranks them. O’Neil is a joke but hey if his once in a lifetime year can be created again great. What are the odds? It makes more sense to build for the future. Also Duran is the center fielder. He had a great year and made 1 error. Sorry but there is absolutely no reason to move him from center field. That’s just pure stupidity talking. You can’t sit Rafaela’s athleticism. Boston needs threats on the bases and that comes from Duran and Rafaela not Abreu.
Making the assumption they all hit it’s a no Brainer Rafaela plays center field. You are literally the only person I have heard to suggest moving Rafaela to right field. No Duran is not a good centerfielder he’s a fast centerfielder that takes poor routes and uses his speed to make up for poor reads and routes. Duran’s arm is also easily the worst non Masa arm. Abreu plays right he gets excellent jumps he’s very instinctual takes excellent routes and his arm is great it’s a right fielders arm. This is easily the best defensive outfield arrangement Boston can have. I mean seriously why move Rafaela to right field when his defense is so good in center. I realize that right field is like a second center field in Fenway so I will concede that in Fenway it’s unique but they play half there games on the road and center in nearly ever other park has your best most athletic defender. Before you bring up Mookie he played right in deference to the better defender JBJ. Mookie mostly played center coming up. Duran is no JBJ and they aren’t moving Rafaela off center because of him Duran gets moved to left if Masa is DH. Abreu is a better guy to play center than Duran defensively.
I think it’s highly likely Emerson Hancock gets moved, and somewhat less likely one of Woo/Miller is gets moved, but still fairly possible. Honestly trading Hancock could be the biggest mistake of all. He looks like a mediocre starter projection-wise but has multiple quality pitches, he is definitely a breakout candidate for 2024.
Ms gotta get some offense, right?
Yes they do. They need something like 3 bats at this point, which is why someone gets moved unless they surprise us and get some free agents, of which there aren’t many options.
I don’t expect Dipoto to go big FA hunting.
They can trade at least 1 young SP, Hancock or Miller preferably.
Woo’s Statcast profile is impressive.
Just insane that Kelenic was part of a salary dump.
Seattle had been frustrated enough by Kelenic. With no options left, Seattle was likely to DFA him if he slumped, and they had no confidence that he would improve. Instead of losing him on waivers, they traded him.
Bad trade.
And you know personally they were frustrated? Lol.
I don’t think so, because he (Hancock) was a top-10 pick that has had a lot of health issues. His value is down, but he’s still incredibly promising. I think Seattle is more likely to hang on to him, hope for a break out and move him after rebuilding his value, perhaps at the deadline or in the following offseason.
After they win 81 games with that lineup.
Do you actually think this lineup won’t change?
Even if they go cheap, they’re still likely going to add another 3 bats minimum.
By the way, they’re projected for 87 wins as-is. Take that however as you may.
Maybe you’re right about their likelihood to trade Hancock. I hope you are, they will probably end up needing him at some point, and he has the stuff to be a quality mid rotation starter. It would definitely be selling low. I have concern about them dipping into the likes of Ford or Young to patch holes too. You’re also right they project roughly 87 wins as is, but I’d take the under at least to some extent if it’s truly “as-is”, I think that would likely lead to way too much playing time to guys like Caballero, Haggerty, Moore, etc. I do think they start the season as something in the ballpark of a 90 win team to start the year though, even if it’s headlined by someone like Lourdes Gurriel Jr. Ii think they should consider a starting pitcher add, possibly someone like Snell, which won’t happen, but a move like that would obviously make a Woo or Miller trade easier to swallow.
I don’t think they’ll trade Ford because of the unlikeliness that they’ll be able to extend Raleigh. I could see Young getting moved for a MLB-ready player of equal talent, simply because of the infield prospect depth they now have, but that probably isn’t plan A.
If you consider age, club control, and the all the lies about spending money, it’s easy to see the next two years as the last two years we’ll see with this core.
Raleigh, Crawford, Castillo, and Gilbert may get moved for maximum returns if they continue to produce at a high level. Seattle seems to be mimicking the Tampa-Oakland process of churning.
The fact that a fan would even consider Castillo COULD be moved is an indictment on ownership.
I was talking about after the 2025 season, but at this point, nothing would really surprise me other than Julio being traded.
Aaron sure does look like his brother Austin doesn’t he?
zero chance the red sox trade any of those young hitters
@dasit
as a Mariner fan, i agree that Boston should not trade any of those young players.
That’s right!!!!
You tell those Red Sox types to grab some bench!!!
And get a case of snickers bars because you aren’t going anywhere for awhile!!!
Rafaela to Miami for Edward Cabrera. Who says no?
Sox get a potential No 2 arm if they fix his walks and Miami gets a young controllable SS/OF
Miami. I do think Rafaela is a nice prospect, but a lot of that is driven by his supreme defense. He has hit well, but there are underlying questions about his approach. I realize E-Cab has questions too (namely that command), but he’s further along in the game and has had sparkling moments at the MLB level.
I think Boston would need to include another very solid piece to get Miami to the table.
Pass on adding more. That glove is special and he can hit. Hopefully he learns discipline at the plate. If traded, I want to add more and get a bigger fish (no pun intended).
What exactly are the Mariners plans for a presently putrid offense?
Ty France at Driveline?
Lol.
More hitting coaches
A full season of Josh Rojas and Sam Haggerty?
The cost for pitching is up all over, as expected. FA starters have few real suitors for years and aav asks. (all on yiu mlb). Now with trade asks sky-high, lower market teams chances of getting a #3 or better is even slimmer. Something has to give. MLB needs to wake up to this nightmare they are creating.
these comments crap me up. All the talk about trading Gilbert, kirby, taking Ray and most of his contact- for prospects(top prospects).
Castillo, Gilbert, Kirby are the foundation to the team going forward. A winning team is lead by its starting rotation. WHY would they take away from that? WHO would they replace Gilbert or Kirby with?? An expensive FA. Why not just keep THEM and sign an expensie FA?
Seattel has a history but not during DiPoto time; of trading away young talent for vets. Altho this doesn’t apply in that regard; seattle has a history of trade3s with Boston. Lowe, Veritek for Slocumb ring a bell? That one is titled “my precious for your flaming bag with a #2 in it”
Yeesh. Maybe its called “speculation”. Maybe signing a free agent pitcher and trading may be how they address needs and what happened before Dipoto and the current ownership are not necessairly representative of what will happen under them. I fully expect Gilbert and Kirby to be in the rotation but if the payroll issues are as bad as it looks I wouldn’t rule it out 100%. Also they have issued getting hitters to sign, so trading for bats makes and signing someone to replace the starter that gets traded could make sense. So could adding prospects or salary relief if it helps them improve. Its not likely at all but not out of the realm of possibility for a team that just dumped players they need for salary relief too. More likely its someone like Hancock or one of Woo or Miller. I still think the chances are fairly low either Woo or Miller gets traded, but far more likely than Gilbert and espeically Kirby. That said addimg multiple cheap young players could get Dipoto listneing as could taking on Rays contract.
Red Sox over-valuing prospects again – franchise tradition.
Like every other team.
Agreed, Dewey, the prospect obsession in MLB is widespread. However, I do think the Sox are particularly guilty on this front. Henry Owens was the last straw for me. Any franchise touting that arm as a legit big leaguer needs careful watching. Little has changed since. Have a good day, Dewey.
I would think lots of teams have been rebuffed by the M’s regarding those pitchers. They’re great and they’re cost-controlled. M’s would be insane to trade them, and every other team would be negligent not to ask anyway.
Gardyparty – The Ms traded away hitting. That typically happens when you believe you have enough not when you are seeking hitting.
The M’s are set and believe in their young players. They won’t be dealing pitching. That’s someones hope not a reality.
Of course they don’t believe that they have enough hitting. Jerry just came out and said that they’re looking for two outfielders and a middle-order bat, which most fans already knew were needs. Do you actually think they’re going to start Marlowe and Canzone in regular roles while someone like Moore or Haggerty DHs?
They didn trade Suárez and Kelenic because they were blocking young sluggers, they traded them out of desperation to shed salary.
That’s the reality, and though they may not wish to trade any young pitching, that isn’t an area they’ve had any trouble. addressing..
Don’t be surprised if/when we do see an arm moved or multiple bats brought in.
Stevil – They shed very little salary but they did shed lots of RBIs.
So you are saying Dipoto is worse than Bloom?
Don’t be surprised when they start hitters you don’t think are good enough to play. This organization has been giving young outfielders a chance early for years. They believe in building young talent through experience. That’s been the case all the way back to Griffey. Kyle Lewis and Julio Rodriguez are two recent examples.
If he’s looking of outfielders they aren’t going to be the type of guys you trade for. They will be league average inexpensive guys for depth. That’ pitching is staying in Seattle.
FYI…. your comment pretty much lost all credibility when you stated that they got rid of Suarez and Kellenic to shed salary!! hahaha
Suarez in 2023 cost less than $10MM vs the CAP and Kellenic was going to be eligible for arbitration in 2025 so he’s making under $1MM per year. Not exactly shedding salary with those moves.
The pitchers are staying in Seattle based on the actions and comments of the GM.
Gonzales..
Right, my comment lost all credibility because I stated they dumped salary—never mind Jerry himself talking publicly about the financial flexibility the trades gave him!
Have some strong coffee and enjoy the day.
Stevit – I agree you were incredibly wrong.
Believe whatever you want. You’re in a world of your own. Everyone else understands what’s happening and why.
You would think that a team that had the third best ERA, but was 12th in runs scored would know about trading from a surplus to fill a need but no. Just keep holding on to the pitchers and miss the playoffs again
If they end 3rd I pitching and 12th in hitting theyre still likely above average as a team. They look like an 85 win team or so as is despite the offensiveprojections, to me at least. They arent in the worst shape but how they find all the bats and relievers they need and the price they have seem to set is going to be interesting.
Maybe their ballpark partially explains both.
FWIW Seattle hopes to improve on this year’s team OPS+ of 106 and team ERA+ of 109. The Mariners have work to do this offseason.
“Mariners and Red Sox seem like natural trade partners.”
=================================
They aren’t, not at all.
The RS OPS+ was 100 last year, making them exactly league-average. And they lost Turner. They don’t have any redundancies on offense, or any major prospects looking to push someone out of a position.. Our offense is ‘okay’, but we have no surpluses to trade from.
And from the Seattle side, they won’t be looking at guys with upside, like Ceddanne, Duran, etc. They are probably looking for someone that is established and can give them a .800 OPS.
The two teams are pretty incompatible. The only thing I could possibly see is Ray + $$$ for a non-premium prospect, and even that is unlikely.
As a follow-up, if the RS trade for anyone, it will likely be with a rebuilding team that would be interested in our good, but 2nd tier, non-top 100 prospects.
They DID have excess before they shipped off Verdugo to the Yankees. But given their lack of proven redundancy, I agree that it makes more sense for them to go the free agent route. (They could get away with trading a RHRP – but that only gets so much)
I like your Robbie Ray idea as the 2nd added SP (he’s not expected back until the 2nd half). Wonder if the Mariners would go for that and how much they would pay down.
Maybe the talk with Seattle was BEFORE Dugie was traded…
You guys think anyone was beating the door down for 1 year of Verdugo ? Seriously he is the guy that’s going complete the puzzle on a trade !
WCSoxFan – No why would they? They like their pitching staff!!! Isn’t that obvious?
Joe, even with turner and Verdugo gone, the sox still have good 3 DHs – Devers, Yoshida, and Casas. Then you’ve got dalbec kicking around.
None of those guys has shown themselves to be a good fit for where they are slotted in the roster.
If any of those 3 DHs can be packaged with prospects to get a solid #2 starter or better you do it.
The RS team ops+ last season was dragged down by Yoshida’s second half, the holes at SS and 2B stinking, etc. So I wouldnt base things off that.
To be a realist though, Yoshida should get a second season to try to adapt to mlb. Devers won’t be moved, they just won’t do it. He’s going to get to butcher 3B a few more years, unfortunately.
Would Seattle want any of them, like a Casas + pieces trade? I don’t think so. But maybe someone else would. I’d be willing to give up a year of Jansen too in a deal.
Well . . . I was saving Kenley for the trade deadline.
GA – I can’t say this enough times. Seattle isn’t trading pitching so lets move on.
Your point about depth is not the problem. It’s the starters at each position.
C – Bad
1B – Young so give him time
2B – Bad
SS – OVER PAID for what he’s delivering
3B – GROSSLY OVER PAID and killing the pitching staff
LF – Yoshida simply sucks on D and is highly OVER PAID as well. If you put O’Neill there he is hard to predict since his spectrum spans from totally sucks to outstanding. One year of outstanding isn’t a high enough percentage to bank on it. so at best he’s IFFY.
CF – Had a break out year and should do well in 2024
RF – Rafaela as the RF means athleticism and a cannon arm he may need to learn the game a bit more but he’s the future so leave him there
DH – HAS TO BE DEVERS and he would be a top DH
SP 1-2 – NOBODY that’s a huge problem
SP 3 Bello – Looks like #3 at a young age. Will improve with experience
SP 4 Houck – He’s young and did it well before they messed with his role
SP 5 Sale – If Cora is coach then Sale is much riskier than if Cora is gone
CL – Kenley is an all-star but without 2 SPs he’s wasted money
RRP – Martin is excellent but without 2 SPs he’s wasted money
Winckowski is a young reliever who will improve
LRP – Need a lefty relief pitcher who has closing experience (Hader) because Jansen’s contract is up at the end of 2024 and he’s old
Depth
Bench Corner Infielder – Dalbec is a weak choice
Bench Middle infielder – Valdez is probably the best
Bench Outfielder – Abreu is a solid choice no need for an upgrade
UPGRADES NEEDED AT – C, 2B, SS, 3B, LF, SP1, SP2, Lefty Reliever
Bloom stripped away Vazquez, Bogarts, Benny, Mookie, Eovaldi and JD
Bloom kept Devers the one guy who was handicapped in providing both Defense and Offense since he won’t move to DH. Can Breslow upgrade C, 2B, SS, 3B, LF, SP1, SP2 and Lefty reliever? I doubt it this year.
TF – you’re being too generous about casas. He’s really a DH with abysmal defense. If he improves much it’ll just be going to ‘bad’
It’s as not urgent to upgrade 1B this offseason, but it does need to happen before this team is serious since you can’t run with with a tandem of devers-casas at the corners and have a good defensive IF. And as much as you want them to move Devers, I just don’t see it happening anytime soon given the $$$ they shelled out.
GA – I don’t know the origin of why you don’t like Casas but his numbers don’t suggest what you are suggesting. And more importantly, please let me put it in perspective.
Casas has played in 152 game at 1B over two seasons. He’s made 6 errors and his fielding percentage is .995 (league average). In his time at 1B he’s participated in 1143 outs.
Devers in 2023 in 151 games (1 less than Casas) he made 19 errors and had a fielding percentage of .949 when league average was .962 13 points higher.. Devers participated in only 370 outs which is 32% of the outs that Casas has been involved in.
So Devers made 19 errors which is more than 3 times as many as Casas and he did it in 1/3 as many plays!!!!!
Casas is NOT a DH. He is a legitimate 1B. Devers is a DH and should never be allowed to wear a baseball glove again!!!
Massive, massive difference between Devers and Casas. Devers has been this bad or worse for his ENTIRE career including the minors and his play at the Dominican Academy at age 16. Casas is league average and was in the minors. There is NOTHING wrong with the defense played by Casas. He may never win a gold glove but 5 to 8 errors in 3 times as many plays than the BUTCHER OF BOSTON who is making 15 to 25 recorded errors each season for a decade or more.
There is no need to upgrade 1B. Don’t be surprised if Casas outhits Devers in 2024 or 2025 and money wasted on Devers should NEVER be a deterrent to improving the team defense.. We can’t take back the Devers contract but we can’t lessen the blow by moving him to DH.
What ever happened to doing the right thing for the betterment of the team? Is that concept gone? It’s embarrassing to see Devers play 3B. The worst in history is a very, very strong motivator to fixing the problem. He will pass Donaldson this year and Longoria next year and before he’s played 10 seasons he will have by far the most errors by an active 3B.
My question is WHY? It’s incredibly stupid to leave him there whether he makes the minimum or Ohtani money. It hurts the team badly!!
Devers:-9 OAA, -6 RAA
Casas: -10 OAA, -8 RAA
When charging errors, it’s important to remember this:
Youve got to look beyond the numbers into what let to the charged fielding errors, and THROWING errors.
Devers makes wild throws. A better, dare I say competent, 1B would save some of those. That reduced the numbers of errors Devers actually makes. So Devers is charged, even though Casas was the reason why. We all see great 1Bs picking throws that would otherwise be an error. But, he doesn’t take the blame for his inability to do so. Adding value at 1B isn’t just a function of errors when a ball is hit your way, it’s how many you prevent from other fielders too.
Casas gets far fewer balls hit his way, and, makes far fewer throws.
Also, the number of outs participated in isn’t a fair comparison, UNLESS it’s the EXACT same position. Even then, its not always the same. Why? You wou really compare a bouncing sharply hit grounder as the same complexity to field as a toss at chest level you just need to glove? Exit velo off a bat is usually much higher than how hard a ball is thrown around the diamond. Less reaction and prep time for what’s coming your way.
Both Devers and Casas need to play DH or improve their play on the diamond…
GA – Againg to me this an issue you have with Casas. Devers made over twenty errors when he had Mitch Moreland a gold glover playing there. Devers errors ARE NOT on Casas. Devers simply sucks. No need to discuss it further.
The reason Baseball Reference publishes the League Average fielding percentage is to gauge how good a player is against the other players at his position. Casas is league average and has been his whole career in the minors and majors. Devers has NEVER been league average since he was 16!!!!
It’s complete BS to blame any errors by Devers on Casas. You hate Casas for whatever reason and are grossly exaggerating his defense. He doesn’t have to be great he just needs to be league average. Same for Devers but he has NEVER been league average. That’s why ONE GUY NEEDS TO MOVE AND THE OTHER DOESN’T.
Yoshi is a DH along with Devers. Devers bad defense exponentially hurts the team compared to Yoshi or Casas. Fix the real problems and stop creating fictional problems to fix before the real problems.
Devers at 3B means .500 or worse. It’s just that simple now that the team has no all-star hitters. It needs defense and pitching to win.
TF – do you know what OAA and RAA represent?
We agree on a lot of things, but, this is one where ive got to differ. Casas would make a fine cheap DH, but, isnt getting it done at 1B defensively. Look it up, then explain why casas has such negative marks in both OAA and RAA if he’s competent playing 1B
GA – Lets start with the outfield estimation with the name of OOA or Outs Above Average. I’m going to show you how full of bull the people are who designed this errant estimation. It’s not a stat it’s a GUESS. Kept that in mind as you criticize facts like Fielding Percentage which is league average for Casas.
OAA initially was an bad outfield estimator. Some brainiac said lets apply it to infielders. Brilliant deduction and typical of the guys who come up with this bull crap..
Pulled from it’s definition here is what it says about OAA for outfielders. “Outs Above Average for outfielders starts with Catch Probability, which takes the distance an outfielder must go, the time he has to get there, and the direction he travels to put a percentage of catch likelihood on each individual batted ball”
You played baseball. Are any two fly outs the exact same? On any given day the grass can be wet and slower, the wind could be gusting in multiple directions and the height of the ball usually dictates the speed at which you pursue it. Note nothing was mentioned about the height of the ball. So these nerds are suggesting every fly is the same every day of the year or they are suggesting an average reflects reality on any given ball hit. Neither is true. This is total bull crap. What’s most important when a ball is hit? Whether you catch it or not. Do you get more outs if you look pretty or you look ugly in doing it? Nope. Are you a better player if look great but don’t catch the ball as often? Are you worse if you look ugly but get the highest percentage of successful fielding attempts?
OAA is a nerds estimation that is meaningless to the actual ball player. If you are playing in Arizona and its a hot day and the outfield grass wasn’t soaked by the groundskeepers that day you can say it’s a fast outfield that day. If you run farther faster than usual are you suddenly a better fielder or is it all about the conditions and they have no idea how to eliminate the conditions because they haven’t happened yet. These averages of averages is how people make simulation games. These games attempt to reflect reality but what in fact they do is represent a standardized player doing something standardized on a standardized day. They don’t account for the player, the conditions or the external forces impacting their measurements. If you do this on historical data you can say “ON AVERAGE” this guy would do this but he may have never done this one time in his career. It’s an average and it’s not a predictor of his next effort to catch a fly ball or line drive. It’s video game crap not reality. STATS are reality. The binary end result of a play is either and out or not. If you get the out the fielder is successful and the hitter is not. If the hitter gets on base then the fielder loses and the hitter wins. BINARY. Fielding percentage reflects the results of all plays for the season or a time frame and what percentage of the time the fielder succeeded. If he runs 10 feet or 20 feet to get the out he succeeded and helped his team. The guy that runs twice as far as the next guy can be more valuable if they have the same fielding percentage but if he makes a lower percentage of outs then he’s a lesser player that is simply faster.
RAA is just as f’d up. If you want me to walk through why I am happy to do it but in the end simulated situations don’t map to reality. Casas hit well in the second half and played first base adequately. The modern metric numbers are a joke. They are nothing more than comparing a guy to average joe except average joe played through a completely different set of circumstances so they aren’t comparable.
My advice is to lose your access to Statcast and Fangraphs. Nerds with a complete misunderstanding of reality versus simulation provide data as if it’s facts and it’s not even close to being a fact. It’s no different than you yelling tales while they yell heads. Predicting the future is a guess and evaluating the past using average Joe is not a fair comparison to the player and his real life experiences in games.
Old school lasted 100 years before a bunch of nerds tried to make things that aren’t predictive predictive. They have sold it well but it’s all bull crap and doesn’t apply to the individuals being compared to average Joe.
TF – I’m still not seeing a valid rebuttal to what the analytics have to say. It is JUST as easy to turn the same argument around and claim that during actual games just because every attempted out wasnt being run on the same field by every player, under the same weather, with balls hit the same way into the same wind and the same heights, launch angle, exit velo, etc, that the actual performance was easier for some players to attain than others… sounds absurd, right? And yet, it’s the same argument you made.
Ultimately, everything should be looked at and weighed
GA – Please name for me two identical situations because I’ve never heard of that. Reread what you wrote. You just made my point. The ONLY real stats are what happened in the game not what might have happened in a hypothetical situation by a hypothetical player.
If Casas is a league average fielder based on fielding percentage then that’s all that matters. The rest is conjecture, bull crap, hypothetical simulated game type crap. It’s not real. BINARY is always the key because if Casas is successful just as many times as the average MLB 1B then no metric should suggest differently based on hypothetical situations!!!! It’s just that simple.
Old school is the only school..
GA – Let me ask you. Do you read contracts before you sign them? If so did you evaluate EVERY FRICKIN DETAIL OF HOW A MODERN METRIC LIKE OAA IS CALCULATED OR DO YOU JUST TRUST THEM?
I don’t trust them so I dig into the metrics and find evaluations that are based on averages of averages not applicable to individuals except if you are trying to simulate something. If you are simulating it what is your degree of accuracy? It’s not even close to the real thing. His fielding percentage actually happened but not one metric actually happened.
GA – Do you think Devers is a horrific, terrible, bad, average or good fielder? HORRIFIC is my answer since he was 16 years old. Do you know that your modern metrics successfully skewed a few of his seasons into not being bad? If a estimation can be that bad, there is never a reason to trust it.
TF – FWIW, although you’ll ignore it too, DRS pegs Casas as a -4.
You’re free to keep your opinion that predictive metrics are made up of voodoo science and have no value, but, these things aren’t pulled out of thin air – they ARE at their basic level grounded in the abilities of the player.
Let’s flip things on their head… in 2022 Devers had a fielding pct of .964 and do you know what the mlb league average fielding pct was for a 3B in 2022? Also .964!
So, by YOUR own definition, because Devers’ ACTUAL in-game fielding percentage of .964 was exactly the same as the mlb average, he was, by YOUR definition, an average defensive 3B!?!?!? And for at least that season that’s all that is supposed to matter?!?!?!?
For the record, I think Devers is a bad to terrible defensive 3B who needs to DH. But I ALSO think Casas needs to either elevate his 1B play, or be a DH. Thus far he has not proven his ability to be there, and, hurts the team. I’ve seen him screw up plays numerous times that led to errors charged to other players, or DPs/outs not recorded, which, other guys would have made, but which weren’t charged as errors to him.
GA – You have been on this website long enough to know my issue with the score keepers helping Devers. Go into Baseball Reference and look at EVERY game played in 2022. I did. I counted the number of times a ball was hit to Devers and he misplayed it but they gave the batter a hit. If you aren’t sure what I’m talking about go back to opening day when Devers missed two simple plays hit by Rutschman. Rutschman got credit for a 5 for 5 day when he was really 3 for 5. That’s a huge problem with baseball today. Errors are not properly recorded. for star players. I counted every time Devers had a mishap and didn’t get an out including those that were official errors. He had 52 mishandled balls and 14 errors!!!! HIs stats will reflect the better fielding percentage and yet his career numbers are still the worst in history. That’s how bad he is. Even cheating he’s the worst!!! Add half the other misplays and he had 33 errors in 2022 and his fielding percentage is in the low .900s which is a fair assessment of his fielding.
Fielding percentage is contingent on the integrity of the score keepers but the plays are always recorded in Baseball Reference so you can dig in and actually count the misplayed balls in a season if you have the time. To prove a point I did it in 2022 when they suggested he made 14 errors but he misplayed 52 balls.
I carried my counting over into 2023 to see if the score keepers were still willing to cheat for Devers and by the end of two weeks 4 balls that were misplayed were declared hits not errors. You do the math. 26 weeks in a season and he’s getting 2 breaks a week!!! 50 or more misplays a season and this guy still gets to play in the field!!! That’s horse crap.
Also your data was inaccurate. Devers has never been League Average. Here are his comparisons versus league average and Casas’ comparisons too.
Devers
2017 – .906 with League Average being .956 (50 points BELOW!!)
2018 – .926 with League Average being .956 (32 points BELOW!!)
2019 – .949 with League Average being .958 (ONLY 9 points BELOW!)
2020 – .891 with League Average being .958 (67 points BELOW!!!!!!!!)
2021 – .950 with League Average being .962 (12 points BELOW)
2022 – .964 with League Average being .967 (3 points BELOW)
2023 – .049 with League Average being .962 (13 points BELOW)
7 seasons BELOW league average – Career % is .943 average is .961
18 points below league average for 7 seasons is unacceptable and NEVER being equal to League Average is embarrassing!!!
Somebody needs to tell Devers to show some pride in being part of a team and play DH!!!
Casas
2022 – .995 with League Average being .994 (1 point ABOVE)
2023 – .995 with League Average being .995 (EQUAL to Average)
In the minors Casas put up a .991 at first base
In the minors Devers put up a .937 at third base
You are a knowledgeable baseball fan so I have no idea why you are arguing against the obvious but you are. I have nothing else to prove here. The data speaks volumes to who completely sucks and who is average.
I’m already familiar with the horribly inaccurate DRS that still hasn’t been standardized across stat companies. Arguments about Devers in the past have brought forth the horrendous DRS numbers. My point then and my point now is that if an estimation about a guy like Devers can be forced into showing him with a positive defensive result when he leads to the league in errors, I want no part of that faulty estimation because it’s clearly wrong. It’s assumptions including variables and constants, it’s normalization techniques don’t take into account the varying circumstances that happen throughout a season and MOST IMPORTANTLY there is no negative impact for using bad baseball acumen when fielding.
Devers for years cut in front of Bogaerts to go for grounders that any good Little League player would have realized they shouldn’t have. Devers has no baseball acumen but he’s learned how to skew the f-up metrics by messing with range numbers. He aggressively goes after every ball to his left whether it makes sense or doesn’t. He often has the ball go off his glove but the run to the ball is long enough he doesn’t get an error despite Bogaerts standing behind him in a perfect position to get the runner..
How does this phenomenon impacts stats and metrics.
STATS – Devers gets no error, the pitcher give up a hit on a ball that should have been an out and now has an additional base runner that impacts his WHIP. It also impacts his number of pitches, his ERA if the runner scores and the level of stress for the pitcher that inning. A VERY VERY SELFISH MOVE BY DEVERS!!!!!
METRICS – Devers gets credit for more range since he got to the ball and despite blowing the play he comes away with a positive impact to his RANGE which impacts his defensive metrics. Bogaerts on the other hand loses credit in the RANGE metric since he didn’t get to a routine ball thanks to Devers. His range is reduced and he’s a lesser fielder according to the metrics and he did absolutely nothing wrong yet got impacted by Devers’ bad choice. THAT SUCKS and THAT IS JUST ONE MORE REASON METRICS SUCK.
Rebuffed as much as the young confederate cavalry captain, barely a man, pictured above, was rebuffed by the Massachusetts cannon that day. Word has been sent to his mother. The widow will be heartbroken to know that her only son has been struck from this mortal coil by these Bostonian serpents.
Mariners pitchers are always good since it’s a pitchers park. Why not look for best Rockies pitchers who would require lower trade value.
The Mariners know their advantage is in cost controlled, young, starting pitchers. Those players demand a premium and it’s how Tampa Bay has built its successful competitive strategy over the past decade.
The Red Sox are likely kicking tires right now as are a ton of other teams. I don’t think teams who are looking to add potential mid/upper rotation arms are getting serious about trade offers for Mariners starters.
That said, if the Red Sox were really targeting Gilbert, they’d have to pull off a massive overpay to get him. Premium, controlled, cheap starting pitching does not get traded. Even a tier 2 option like Woo or Miller would be expensive. Castillo is probably available for a moderate price, but full NTC until 2026.
The best strategy would be to keep all that pitching and find other ways to add bats IMO. They could be really bqd real fast if someone goes down and suddenly Darren McCaughan or Taylor Dollard gets significant playing time or they have to trade for backend starters suddenly. Stashing Hancock and running the 5 out until Ray is back makes the most sense. The issue is they need bats so bad it could make sense in the right situation to trade pitching for hitting. I think at this point adding someone like Gurriel Jr, Martinez, Turner or Soler would be the best route. I also think trading guys like Ford or Young for a rental should generate pause.
Theres ways it could work if they do trade pitching or top prospects for hitting but they had better be doing it to improve ane have a real plan to fill whatever holes they create.l and would hate to see a giveaway
The team that lines up the best with the Mariners are the Orioles. They both have players that are young, controllable and meet each other’s needs. It would be a young blockbuster deal.
The Mariners aren’t going to trade pitching unless someone takes Ray’s contract in the deal or they get the equivalent young guy, controllable with a high ceiling not yet achieved.
Casas is the only player on the Red Sox roster that meets that criteria. They are not going to take a Yoshida or Devers due to the contracts. Devers value is even lower because his D regressed a LOT.
The Mariners are not trading Logan Gilbert or George Kirby. Miller and Woo (not both) might be had for a boatload of MLB talent that hits, walks, and doesn’t strike out. High prospects from the other team might sweeten the deal, but Dipoto’s been hogtied for budget. Given all that, I don’t see anything outside the Rays trading away Arozarena and a high hitter prospect (Carson Williams?) for a package that might include Woo or Miller, Brash, and a low-level bright prospect.
lol they are not natural trade partners. The Sox bats aren’t good enough to trade any of the young Mariners SP’s
ryrockak – The Mariners don’t plan on trading the SPs. They know that is their strength and they also traded their hitting because they are comfortable they have enough so they don’t NEED to trade their SPs. People just keep going on and on about trades as if they might happen. THEY WON’T
I know this isn’t a popular opinion, but if Seattle has a budget in the 140 range (which is very possible), they should probably consider moving Kirby if they could address multiple needs with MLB-ready prospects with star potential.
Easier said than done, but developing and fixing pitchers is their strength. They can attract pitchers, too. What they can’t do is attract bats.
Kirby has more value than Gilbert and I would argue Gilbert is every bit as good, but without the temper.
Why not trade another budding star in Julio!
This is a joke you don’t trade Kirby, he’s a young verlander/ sherzer controlled got 5 years
A mid market team needs to trade to get younger. Trade the older guys in the rotation makes the most sense. Once the free agent pitchers get picked up trade then.
Blue jays giants cubs all missed out on Ohtani. Their canvasses is expecting something significant.
Castillo would have great trade value to those teams or pay down his contract and sell to orioles or reds.
Robbie
This isn’t a team that should have to trade players like Kirby. That much should be obvious.
But Castillo doesn’t have the same value because of his salary. And Ray…..seriously?
If the FO doesn’t have the dough, yeah, they absolutely should try to sell high for the reasons I already made clear.
Only in theory does that sound good or alright. Comparable, I suggest they resume in building the border wall this gets opposite reactions even though, it under these conditions makes perfect sense. Perhaps a larger gate might have some appeal You would have to have something to Woo us over since what you suggest has a wall of it’s own.
With the Glasgow trade I lost hope for a deal with tb, as that freed up a chunk of salary they were hoping to shed, and it seems they might be set now.
Castillo is intriguing but who does he net you? It would have to be a team that wants to win now and has a BIG bat (or two) that they’re willing to move, and that has payroll flexibility. Is Castillo for goldschmidt nuts? At this point it would take something like that to get me excited for next year.
Glasnow & Margot were never likely targets of Seattle and Tampa got a much better return than I would have expected. If Seattle makes a trade with Tampa, I would hope that Mead is in the return, but it’s easier to see them interested in Ramirez.
I don’t think Seattle’s interested in moving Castillo, nor should they be. He’s their best pitcher and offers innings.. Ray seems far more likely to get moved, whether it’s in an expensive contract swap, or after he’s healthy and able to contribute.
I still think a deal with Milwaukee could make a lot of sense.
Ray is a fireballer, as does his grunts suggest. What does he, and Gonzales have in common? Consistency issues both can be otherwise good but I do believe money better spent could go in other places This Ray could break either way after his recovery. The down side would have him in the pen, and long relieve his new value is yet undecided.
It’s fun to talk about trades but the fact is the Mariners need to address the offense. I hope for the sake of M’s fans they do it through free agency. If they don’t then well they just don’t have enough offense to compete with Texas and Houston. I think they will have to make an unpopular trade at some point with Robbie Ray returning. They don’t have to do anything now until the free agents are all signed but they will have the gold that every team with aspirations to compete in 2024 will covet greatly.
Bruin1012 – When a team moves a guy like Suarez I get a different message than you do. Trading a good 3B means you believe you have other good 3Bs that can back fill and what you trade for is more important. Being important means it’s a NEED in the eyes of the GM. That means the M’s GM thinks they need a back-up catcher and another pitcher more than a 96 RBI 3B.
You say they need hitting but the M’s GM doesn’t see it that way. So no matter how much you covet the SPs in Seattle they aren’t going anywhere unless much, much bigger stars enter into the deals.
Trading them Devers for two SPs would be great for Boston but I don’t see why they would want an over=priced DH. Nobody else on the team is an all-star thanks to Bloom. So those Seattle pitchers are staying in Seattle and it will take a major injury to get the GM thinking they might need to use one or two of them to backfill a position.
You stink at writing, Adams. “Meanwhile” has to come at the start of a sentence; it can’t be in the middle, set off with commas.
They knew the Mariners would turn down any offer for pitching. This was done to appease us. If you were disappointed in last season’s signings this is far worse. So far not impressed at all.
Idk. I’m intrigued with what we can offer to get RF Duran. HE has excellent traits I value in am outfielder. He has great speed. Solid batting avg all thru minors and last year in bigs. Developing power. Can be a 20 /30 for the next 5 years. Woo and Adcock for Duran and let’s call it a night
Sox ownership needs to sell the team.
Having little cents I’m going to put my two sense in. These trades that Dipoto has made have me wondering how thoughtful they are despite him having plenty of time to think about them. In my own estimation I believe he could have been a little more subtle in his dealings. or is this purposely all about cost cutting? instead of bettering the team? Because what makes anybody think that they are going to add any significant talent to this team? Unless he starts to also start by dismantling the pitching staff so what might be gained by that is also becoming a subtraction now were different but not enough to make any real difference.
With this money saved their best chances are with continued pitching addons. As for the hitting there will be some even if it’s only marginal room for improvement may only be slight but could happen.
Fever – I’ve just watched the KC GM make a bunch of deals for decent middle of the road players. He’s cherry picking the center cut players while everyone is looking to land the big dogs. Wouldn’t that be a nice strategy for Breslow. Take some action now on the key things we need. A 3B,2B, Lefty Reliever would be nice while we wait for the top flight SPs!!! Some GMs get things done quickly and effectively and others don’t. Breslow is sliding down the scale toward Bloom every day. If he picked up Merrifield or another decent 2B right now, I’d feel like he is actively addressing issues while negotiating the big deals. Since he’s added an unnecessary outfielder unless he’s trading Yoshida, then his actions aren’t really pointed at the current needs. Perez was acceptable. Not my first choice but there is value in wisdom and a decent arm. 2B, 3B and Lefty Reliever seem fairly critical so I’m hoping he’s at least negotiating for players to fill those fairly significant holes.
Last but not least. the hitting dilemma, it’s been made perfectly clear that FA. is out of the question. The trading of pitching is an automatic deduction a lot of smoke needs to clear the room first before anything most likely gets done, meanwhile player talent is a dwindling opportunity yet there still should be some meat on the bones, the quantity may be in question. leaving us with mostly bones to make soup with hopefully this will satisfy are appetite so they may think.
I’d rather see a drab offseason by Breslow than panic contracts like Devers, Story and Yoshida.
baseballlteam – I don’t think those need to be the only choices. If Breslow is good at his job he should get many things on the needs list. If he’s another Bloom, he won’t get many. Once that can be observed in Spring Training ownership can decide to cut him like they should have done to Bloom in March of 2020 when our roster still had many all-stars. Breslow can’t reduce the all-star level like Bloom did but being inept at procuring new talent is just as bad. We need a DD type GM to go get excellent players and to hell with what Devers or Cora wants. Trade one and fire the other and stop the ship from sinking.
I can’t tell you the name of the GM in KC off the top of head but I have noticed he’s accomplishing things when others aren’t. I was hoping Breslow would be that type of guy. Moving Devers to DH is a move that costs no money but adds at least 10 wins. That should be the first of many moves to fix the defense. ACTION is what everyone wants because of Bloom’s destruction. We want a team we can be proud of again. No Cora is a no brainer because everyone doesn’t have to be embarrassed by having a convicted cheater as the manager.
Breslow needs to look to KC and see how a GM trying to make an immediate impact does his job. Whether we sign Yamamoto or not the money involved in the deal IS NOT STOPPING BRESLOW from trading players to land Burnes or other top flight SPs or from signing other top flight SPs available in Free Agency. We need 2 and taking no action while we wait to lose out on Yamamoto seems very counter productive.
I just went through the list of MLB Team 1 and Team 2 players and I couldn’t find any Red Sox.
What I did find was Nate Eovaldi a 2022 Red Sox and Mookie Betts a 2019 Red Sox. No current ones performed well enough to make the list. That might explain why we finished 5th in the division for the second year in a row.
I sure hope Breslow gets at least one or two guys to be on the 2024 list. This franchise is bottoming out and Breslow needs to change the direction with all-star quality additions to the roster. We can be patient on the young stars who allow us to spend money elsewhere but we need to spend that money and replace our lost all-stars.
Crickets