Multiple clubs have reached out to the Rays about outfielder Randy Arozarena, per a report from Jeff Passan of ESPN. The Rays aren’t shopping him but it may be something they consider with their perpetual financial concerns.
That clubs would be interested in Arozarena is hardly a surprise. In 487 regular season games in his career thus far, he has hit 71 home runs and stolen 80 bases. His 25.4% strikeout rate is a bit high, but he pairs that with a solid 9.5% walk rate. Those numbers were even better in 2023, coming in at 23.9% and 12.2%. His career batting line of .265/.351/.451 translates to a wRC+ of 128, indicating he’s been 28% better than league average. The reviews on his glovework are mixed, with Defensive Runs Saved liking him better than Outs Above Average. But his work at the plate is excellent and he’s shown a knack for taking it up a notch when the lights are brightest, with strong performances in the MLB playoffs and the World Baseball Classic.
Beyond his abilities, Arozarena is surely appealing due to his contractual situation. He qualified for arbitration last offseason as a Super Two player, earning $4.15MM in 2023, meaning this winter will see him go through the arb process for the second out of four passes. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects him for a salary of $9MM in 2024, with further raises to come in the following two seasons.
Even for a low-spending club like the Rays, $9MM isn’t going to break the bank. But since his salary will go up as his club control goes down, it’s fair to expect that the Rays will be looking to trade him at some point. The club often operates this way, flipping players as they get more expensive and closer to free agency, continually restocking the system with cheaper and more affordable players. Tommy Pham, Blake Snell and Austin Meadows are just some examples from recent years.
The Rays do appear to have a bit of a short-term budget crunch. Roster Resource estimates their 2024 payroll is currently at $126MM, whereas the data at Cot’s Baseball Contracts shows they’ve never previously gone beyond the $80MM range. President of baseball operations Erik Neander has said the club is open to running a higher payroll next year, but they may still have to make some cuts. Right-hander Tyler Glasnow has been a popular name in trade rumors, as he has one year and $25MM left on his deal. Manuel Margot has also been in trade talks, with one year and $12MM left on his guarantee.
Arozarena is set to make less than either of those two, but his extra years of control would give him the most trade value of the group. Those extra years mean that the Rays don’t have to move him now, but if they are going to move him eventually, his trade value is as high as it will be. His salary will only go up in future seasons as he gets closer to the open market, shrinking the amount of years the Rays can sell.
Despite the budgetary concerns, all indications are that the Rays are still trying to compete in 2024. Any trade they make would be about striking a balance between saving money but still keeping the talent on the roster as high as possible. An outfield without Arozarena in it could still have Margot, Josh Lowe and Jose Siri, with players like Luke Raley, Greg Jones, Jonathan Aranda and Harold Ramírez potentially in the mix as well. It’s also possible that the trade return could include another outfielder, cheaper than Arozarena and less established at the big league level.
But trading Arozarena could also allow them to perhaps add some starting pitching, which is a notable concern even if Glasnow doesn’t get moved. Each of Shane McClanahan, Drew Rasmussen and Jeffrey Springs underwent a significant elbow surgery this year, meaning each of them is set to miss most or all of the upcoming campaign. A trade of Arozarena could be one way of filling the rotation behind Glasnow, Zach Eflin and Aaron Civale. If Glasnow ends up getting traded, it would only increase the need for rotation help.
It’s unknown which clubs are calling the Rays or how open they would be to any offers on Arozarena. But given the rumors surrounding their players with bigger salaries, it seems as though a trade or two will be made. Ultimately, it will depend on exactly where they need the payroll to be and what kind of offers are coming in for Glasnow, Margot, Arozarena or perhaps players like Isaac Paredes or Brandon Lowe.
The Rays could also perhaps benefit from a free agent market that is considered light in terms of impact bats. Shohei Ohtani is on his own planet and set for a record-breaking contract of some kind, but beyond him, the best options include Cody Bellinger, Matt Chapman, Teoscar Hernández, Jorge Soler and others. It’s expected by many in the baseball world that the Padres will flip Juan Soto due to their own financial issues. Players like Eloy Jiménez, Alex Verdugo and Christopher Morel could be on the trading block as well.
But Arozarena would be one of the most attractive trade candidates if he were truly available, given the combination of his skills, affordability and control. Passan’s report indicates that a small number of clubs have reached out to the Rays but more could come calling over the next few weeks.
Property franchise. Show some backbone and don’t fear players making 8 digits.
Didn’t know the Rays were in land development
Autocorrect being evil today.
Yes!
Well they getting that new stadium in 2030
I think rays are wise to sell off players at peak value and this is surely it for Randy.
Rays will be looking for MLB ready talent. If they can get enough of it and get these deals done quickly – they’ll turn around and be players in free agency. They are ready to spend and win. I think they are close to max pay roll but are cool w staying pat if it all works out that way. Not eager like pads are to unload soto
Whiffa – LOL. I’m a big ole Rays fan and even I have to laugh at this post. Rays are not cool with staying pat and spending 50% more than they’ve ever spent before, especially without knowing whether Franco will be playing in 2024. Anything they say to the contrary is just a negotiating ploy to maintain bargaining leverage.
They have a budget. They also offered Freddie Freeman a contract that would have given him more take home pay than what he signed with the Dodgers.
I thought the Rays were going to start spending $ now? They definitely had me fooled.
Captain – Stuff happens. The Rays will be missing 3 starting pitchers for most/all of 2024 (all of whom were top pitchers not scrubs at the back of the rotation) and they might not have 6-8 Win Wander Franco. Should they open their wallet even when the team overall isn’t nearly as strong as they expected it to be?
Says a fan of a team that also got smart with 8 digit salaried players…
Who wouldn’t want their team trading for this guy? I’d love him on the Reds.
I’m sure they are inquiring since they are already linked to Glasnow. I cringe at the cost of that lol
Marte
Phillips
India
Richardson
Might get it done
I’d deal Elly before I’d deal Marte.
Ricardo Cabrera is the best the reds have up the middle on the dirt… if I were the reds I’d absolutely be shopping elly.
TOBTTR – Elly would certainly be enough to land Aroz. Make it happen captain.
If it wasn’t for Marte, done.
Maybe they’d take someone lower down the org instead like an Arroyo or Stewart
I think Fraley meets their mold as guy off majors roster rays would have interest in. I’d be reluctant to part w him though.
Cruz is last guy I’d get rid of. Then arroyo- he will be an elite shortstop that hits for power and average. I’m real high on Stewart too ! Not saying he’s gonna be a big league stud one day but his value will surely rise over this next minor league season if he stays healthy
Whiffa – Maybe. Fraley was a Ray many years ago and was traded to the Mariners. I believe the main problem was his lack of arm strength to play CF at the level the Rays demand and their overall belief that his bat wasn’t good enough to play COF. Maybe they no longer feel that way, but he wouldn’t be anything more than a 4th or 5th outfielder with the Rays (ie: not a huge piece in a trade).
Marte is the guy I’d be trying to extend right now (along with Encarnacion-Strand). De La Cruz, McLain, and India are all Boras clients.
De La Cruz will definitely go for for bright lights, so probably only a five tear stint there. Bit so sure about the others. I’d hope McLain sticjs around.
As I told an agent once, you work for the player, not the opposite.
Cincy Fan- it was so hard for this Mariners fan to see Noelvi Marte (and Edwin Arroyo!) leave the M’s Org. There is zero buyers remorse in acquiring Luis Castillo. His start in TOR for the WC series in 2022 was one of THE most dominant Playoff starts by any SP, ever!
Last season I counted at least a dozen SP’s in Rotations across MLB (counting SEA’s) that were drafted and developed by Dipoto. CIN had 3 SEA SP’s last yr- B Williamson C Phillips, Levi Stoudt. Dipoto even traded away Pablo Lopez (for D Phelps.) That worked out well!! This current FO has proved they can develop ML Pitching. But……
Outside of Julio Rodriguez this M’s FO has yet to see anywhere near the same success developing hitters.
So to see Noelvi Marte (and Arroyo) go to CIN…. that was frustrating. Then to see him hit the ground running in Sept, when our lineup was 2nd in MLB in K/0%? Ouch! But…..thats baseball, you cant win every trade and you certainly cant hit on every prospect
Whiffa – That would certainly get it done; although I don’t think the Rays have any desire for India given all their 2B/3B players.
4th gen Reds fan.
Glasnow to Cincy at 25m this season followed by a nine-figure deal next year? Can’t see it. As for Elly, he’s too big of an attendance draw this year to flip. Can’t see the Reds doing that either.
India is average offense and below average 2b defense – doesn’t have the arm for OF. He won’t bring back a Logan Gilbert unless a top 10 prospect is involved.
The most valuable asset for the Reds to move is McLain. Outperformed his StatCast projections by a mile and is a possible regression candidate. He is a solid, multi-position glove and controllable for years too. Would likely bring back a Gilbert type…
Blockbuster for Glasnow and Arozarena? India and an OFer off the ML roster plus Phillips and a low lottery?
I think the value (or lack thereof) of Glasnow is balanced out with Arozarena.
Idosteroids – That’s a ridiculous statement. Even if Glasnow’s right arm fell off his body today and he never pitched again, Aroz would still have more trade value than Glasnow’s $25MM negative trade value.
Glasnow is a 100% salary dump. Rays are in a tough position. His trade value is very fairly low. A super injury prone pitcher, with one year left (at 25 mil no less). The rays won’t want to retain much, if any, of his salary. They’d be luck to get a few mid tier prospects. You dont think other teams/GMs thinking similarly????Be real with yourself here.
Idosteroids – The Rays may move Glasnow come hell or highwater, but that doesn’t mean the Rays will be forced to accept scraps for him. Basic supply and demand dictates there will be a good market for his services and the Rays will receive a pretty good return. He’s not returning anything like Archer did of course.
Also, Glas isn’t injury prone. He had 1 injury that the Rays asked him to rehab through rest for 2 years before he finally had the surgery required to fix the injury.
Take out India and add in a prospect that would be painful to part with. No one is thrilled to have India. Not Reds front office. Not Reds fans. Not the 29 other teams.
DHud – Rays aren’t going to trade Aroz and Glas together, and the Rays won’t want India. Rays have a ton of 2B/3B players who are better than India. Phillips is a good pitching prospect, but he’s not getting it done alone. I’m not familiar with the Reds’ outfielders to be honest. Besides Friedl, who I’m guessing the Reds wouldn’t trade, who else you got? For the lottery selection, I like Schoenwetter. I think there would need to be at least one more decent player in that package to get Aroz, but it’s a good starting point.
I wouldn’t want my team trading for him. With 3 remaining years the return would likely be more than I am willing to pay. It’s easier to pull one over on the Rays then in the past but still not easy. Randy should be much cheaper than Soto Reynolds though.
Braves
Braves probably dont have the pieces and lumping Glasnow in is an awful idea……havent the braves learned with the Cole Hamels signing???…..injury prone players are a problem.
They are fine with eight digits as long as two of them are separated by a period.
Bargain Mart Rays!
Also, 99 win Rays.
They aren’t looking to unload him; other teams are trying to get him. There’s a difference.
Briar – Should the Rays apologize for managing their team better than all but 2-3 teams for the past decade?
Please point the the championship in the glass cabinet, please. Floor’s yours, champ.
You’re welcome to think a ring means a team is successfully managed and the lack of a ring means otherwise; however, the past 2 post-seasons should tell you that isn’t the case though. A fair amount of luck and hot streaks go into winning championships.
Just a simple take, Briar.
Sure, winning that championship is the ultimate goal.
Since 2000, the Rays have participated in 9 post seasons with 2 world series trips.
In the last 5 years, 5 post seasons with 1 world series trip.
Compare that to the Reds with 4 post season trips since 2000. No post season series wins in that time.
Somehow one looks like a well-run franchise and the other does not IMO.
*mic drop*
That .336/.414/.690 slash line in 33 playoff games is impressive
Dude is a gamer for sure.
The Rays scored 2 runs in their last 2 WC playoff series.
His postseason hitting damage was from 2020 when pitchers didn’t know how to pitch to him (and get him out).
Go get him Mo. Liberatore and Carlson. Throw in O’Neill if they include Glasnow. Undo your past mistake.
Those three could maybe get you Margot and that’s it. All three are coming off awful years.
What’s with these nerds in STL thinking Glasnow/Randy could be packaged for their trash?
Every single article. Oneill, libatore, Carlson for a mega star. I love how Oneil is only included if Tampa throws in an Ace pitcher.
Glasnow has no real trade value he makes too much money.
Arozarena isnt happening.
ONeill for Glasnow is fair when you factor in salary. At least ONeill has had a good healthy season in his career. Glasnow can’t say that.
Glasnow absolutely has trade value. If he didn’t he would be on the waivers already. Tyler Oneill and his .3 WAR and 1 remaining year is not going to net Tyler Glasnow.
Why is ONeill and his 5 million dollar salary not as valuable as Glasnow and his 25 million dollar salary?
Both guys have huge potential. Both guys have injury issues. To act like Glasnow is more than 20 million dollars better is ridiculous.
Tyler Glasnow is a proven top of the rotation arm that has trouble staying healthy. When he pitches he’s really good. Oneill is a 4th outfielder who had one really good year. He has been replacement level for 4 of his 5 years with the cardinals. Those guys grow on trees. A guy who can start game 1 in the playoffs do not.
Glasnow is proven but ONeill isnt??? Give me a break. ONeill has 2 gold gloves. He was top 10 in MVP votes in 2021 and that’s a season Glasnow has never came anywhere close to.
ONeill has absolutely not been replacement level you made that up.
I dont know what you deal is but you are wrong.
Glasnow makes 25 million. ONeill makes 5. The Cardinals wouldn’t do the deal because they don’t want to add 20 million to the payroll.
I could quote you all his stats from the last two years and the 2018 and 2019 but you can look them up on baseball reference yourself. He had a great year in 2021 and has been pretty atrocious all the other years. He has a good left field glove. He’s an interesting flyer, change of scenery guy. He’s not in the same stratosphere of being as valuable as Glasnow. There is a reason he’s only making 5 million or whatever it is in his final arb year.
You said he’s below replacement level as if you understood WAR and were looking at his WAR. You clearly don’t and weren’t.
ONeill was stuck behind Fowler in 2019 and 2020 because the team had to prove the Fowler contract wasn’t a massive mistake. He missed more games healthy those years than he did being hurt.
The reason Glasnow is making 25 million is the Rays signed him to a backloaded deal to save themselves some money in 2022. That’s why.
You don’t know what you are talking about. There are a lot of weird Cardinal fans that hate ONeill. Is that what you are?
I actually don’t think you know what you’re talking about. His entire value as a Cardinal came in one glorious year. His last two years he has played 160+ games and has a 1.6 bwar and a 2 fwar. Glasnow had a 2 bwar and 3.2 fwar in 120 innings last year. In his last 200 innings he’s worth 5.9fwar. He pitches he’s pretty dang good.
A 2 win player isn’t replacement level champ. You said replacement level. He’s a 2 win player over the same period of time he had injury problems. That’s not bad at all.
20 million dollar difference in salary. That’s a big deal.
That’s in 167 games champ. He’s a 1.6 war player chief. He’s not that good boss.
ONeill career WAR 9.5
Glasnows career WAR 9.8
And Glasnow has been around an additional 2 years.
So what’s that about? Just admit you are wrong. It’s ok.
@joel p
I enjoy some of your posts around here, but sorry, I have to disagree with you on this one. Glasnow has been a solid (albeit injury prone) starter every year since 2019. O’Neil has had one above average offensive season his whole career and offense is king for position players. Even at the large price difference, Glasnow has more value. There is a far larger market for starting pitchers with top of the rotation upside than there is for a defense first left fielder. Any team in the league could use a rotation upgrade on a single year commitment while very few teams are in need of a glove only/let’s-hope-to-god-he-bounces-back outfielder.
Most or every fan base has their same trash for every trade proposal. If you don’t want them the other teams don’t want them.
He’s got tons of trade value. He makes what he’s worth.
ONeill has been a solid injury prone player since he was called up.
Let me repeat this
ONeill career WAR 9.5
Glasnow career WAR 9.8
And Glasnow has been around 2 years longer.
So in what world is Glasnow not only better than ONeill but 20 million dollars better???? 20 million dollars buys you a good player. You could get Marcus Stroman for that who very well could have a better season than Glasnow by himself.
A 2 win player is definitely replacement level. That’s the league average.
Glasnow is making 25 million dollars. Teams are not lining up to pay a guy who has never pitched over 120 innings 25 million dollars.
I am not wrong at all. The world knows Glasnow has way more value. It’s just you and a few other delusional fans that think Oneill is worth anywhere near Glasnow. I have no dog in this fight, not a fan of either team. Glasnow since joining Tampa when healthy has put up very good numbers. Like a million people have pointed out, he can’t stay healthy. Oneil also can’t stay healthy but when he does play has been pretty atrocious outside of 2021. It was by far his best defensive and offensive year.. As of right now he is a 4th outfielder interesting flyer/change of scenery candidate. Those guys are a dime a dozen. Supply and demand
A 2 win player is more like an average big leaguer. Replacement level is 0. Anything above 0 is above replacement level. Feel free to look this up.
ONeill career WAR 9.5
Glasnow career WAR 9.8
That’s it. Mic drop. Run along.
He was .3 War last year. I’d consider that replacement level. Like I pointed out he’s probably a 4th outfielder. Those are not rare nor valuable.
Nobody wants O’Neil. Your not trading him for anything of value.
Joel – You’re a funny dude.
Do you pick and choose what WAR to use depending on what point you are trying to make? That’s lame.
ONeill career WAR 9.5
Glasnow career WAR 9.8
Case closed. Run along now.
I would like to say teams don’t care about past war. Only future war. But looking at some of these contracts they give out that doesn’t seem to be the case. Rays though don’t seem to care about past war.
Joel – O’Neill hasn’t hit for 100 wRC+ in 4 of his 6 seasons in the Majors. If you ignore his career year in 2021, he has 4 fWAR in 5 years. O’Neill isn’t very good. It’s hard to see him making the Rays’ roster without them trading both Aroz and Margot, and even then he would be the Rays’ 4th outfielder. O’Neill for Glasnow would be a ridiculously bad trade, salary or not.
Joel – Because 4th oufielders grow on trees and Aces don’t. Basic supply and demand.
iml12 – LOL. I wrote my response before seeing you wrote the very same thing.
@mp
Exactly
So if you take out the times ONeill was good he’s bad? Yeah that makes sense.
Who are these 3 outfielders not named Margot and Arozarena that are better than ONeill? Margot sucks btw and again overpaid.
Salary or not? Again the salaries are not even close to equal. What’s better Marcus Stroman and ONeill or just Glasnow? Glasnow is completely unreliable. So is ONeill but ONeill makes 5 million not 25 million. For 25 million you need reliability.
Both guys will be traded. Wait and see what they are traded for. I am sure you have been wrong before you will get over it.
Glasnow has never been an ace. Aces pitch more than 120 innings. He’s a POTENTIAL ace and ONeill is a POTENTIAL 5 tool player. Big difference is the salary.
@joel
He’s been good once buddy, I don’t know how you aren’t seeing what everyone is saying.
Who is everyone??? Speak for yourself. Stop using others opinions as a way to justify your own
Oneill career WAR 9.5
Glasnow career WAR 9.8
Now how on earth is Glasnow worth 20 million dollars more than ONeill????
Joel – Glasnow signed a 2 year deal that included the $5.3MM he was going to make in arbitration for 2023 and a 1 year buy-out of free agency for $25MM. The Rays did not save themselves any money in 2023 by signing this contract. They signed this contract because they realized that a year of Glasnow at $25MM provided enough surplus value to offset the risk of him getting injured again and the Rays having to eat the contract. As I’ve reminded you many many times, Glasnow has only had 1 injury. It was an arm injury that he was able to pitch through by resting the arm during the season and then pitching in the post-season. That worked for 2 years and then in 2021 he had to go under the knife to really fix the injury.
Now that he has finally had the surgery and is healthy, the real Glasnow is going to dominate next year (not for the Cardinals though).
Even if they were the same value the Rays wouldn’t be interested in Otrash. Which one is more valuable will be easy to figure out as both will need a contract for 2025. My money is on Mr Glass.
The Rays got a discount on his 2023 salary because they gave him 25 million for 2024. That’s how the deal was structured.
If Glasnow has only had 1 injury then why is he always hurt?
Come on dude what is your deal?
Otrash?
That’s a weird thing to say. Why are you insulting ONeill personally? That’s weird. Really weird.
Glasnow has no surplus value, but he has value as a TOR arm that will cost less for a shorter period than any high quality starter in FA. Yes, he’s been injury prone, but he just healed up from TJ, so he’s likely to stay healthy for a bit. Teams are only looking for one healthy year. He is not “negative value.”
Close, but TB needs pitching more than an OF.
Nobody said Glasnow has negative value. I am saying he’s not more valuable than ONeill when factoring in his much larger contract. I think a team like the Dodgers will trade one of their overrated mid 20s pitching “prospects” for Glasnow. But very few teams want to pay 25 million for a guy who can’t pitch a full season.
I have spoken for myself if you care to read a few posts up. Since then, others have shared a similar point. Nobody who has commented has agreed with you at all, so obviously that would be who I’m talking about. I don’t know why you keep on bringing up career war and ignoring every other point I’ve brought up when that has nothing to do with his current trade value. Again O’Neil has had ONE ABOVE AVERAGE SEASON and that was 2021. Glasnow has trade value because he can pitch up to a #2 starter and has so recently. Even if he only gives you 110 innings it may be worth 4 war. O’Neil hasn’t hit in years, hense, nobody is going to give much up for him at all. What is so hard to understand? Recent success, projections and expectations for next year, and positional value and availability make Glasnow far more sought and valuable. Why you keep repeating career war is insane to me. It means nothing. Madbum has a higher career war then both of them does he have more value? No, of course not.
Pitchers are in higher demand. OF who are injury prone are a rarer problem and easier to avoid. Marcus Stroman is not going to sign a one year contract, which is part of Glasnow’s attraction. Its a Rodon like gamble, but only for one year and $25MM.
Dude you jumped in with 2 other guys 1 is a Rays fan and 1 called ONeill Otrash which means he’s probably one of those weird Cardinal fans who hate ONeill. Stop using others as a justification for your own opinion that’s lame. And what fan are you a team of???? Feel free to share.
Career WAR matters because it shoWs what they have accomplished in their career. It doesn’t cherry pick one season or one moment in time it’s their CAREERS.
Again why do you care so much? Why are you here commenting? I am a Cardinals fan I have watched ONeill play since 2018. Who are you and why do you care?
Rodon never got 25 million back when he was signing 1 year deals. Isn’t that kind of important????
Both players are injury prone. The injuries aren’t any more or less meaningful because ones a left fielder and the other is a starter.
Glasnow is the Tyler ONeill of starting pitching. But he makes 25 million in 2024 ONeill makes 5.
I’m sure you think you’ve never been wrong. Just like you think you are right this time. Notice though that you have several commenters for the opposing view, and no one coming to your aid. (Mic drop)
Rodon got 21.5 million for 1 year coming off a season where he pitched 178 innings and led the league in FIP and k per 9.
So why is Glasnow worth more money coming off a year where he didn’t pitch as well and pitched 58 less innings???
Let’s hear it. You mentioned Rodon stymeedone. So let’s hear it. Explain how this all adds up.
Tell me how Rodon is worth 21.5 million and Glasnow is worth 25. Explain that to me fella. Give it a shot. That’s YOUR EXAMPLE so go ahead and explain that.
Joel – We may disagree on Glasnow’s value, but I know you know you can’t compare a position player’s WAR to a pitcher’s WAR. That’s a bad argument to make.
Mets6986 – League average is not the same as replacement level.
You can’t compare a position players WAR to a pitchers WAR?????
Since when??????
You have said some incredibly silly things here dude. You don’t seem to understand WAR at all.
More Relievers to HOF- I can’t follow this conversation at all now. I responded to a few posts and my comments were listed under the post I responded to. Then I hit refresh and my responses are lumped together. So thanks for agreeing with me. I don’t know what post you liked, but I’ll take it. 😉
Mp2891 you are a Rays fan. That guy called ONeill Otrash. Seems like a weird thing to say doesn’t it?
Good lord stop using others as a reason why you are right. I am using facts and data and you keep saying “well another guy agreed with me derp”. Get a clue man. Stand on your own two feet or fall over.
Joel – Jose Siri will be the Rays starting CF. He hit 106 wRC+ last year while providing above average to elite defense, provided 2.7 fWAR in only 101 games. Josh Lowe broke out in a big way last year, hitting 131 wRC+ and providing 3.8 fWAR. Luke Raley will probably replace Aroz in LF next year. He hit 130 wRC+ and provided 2.6 fWAR last year (while playing some 1B too). My best guess is that the Rays will transition C.Mead to play some COF if Margot and Aroz are traded. Mead is MLB’s #34 prospect and he’s a RHB to complement the lefties Raley and J.Lowe. The Rays are going to struggle to find playing time for Mead in the infield next year and he’s ready for the Show.
Ok so the Rays don’t need an outfielder then. It doesn’t chance ONeills trade value or Glasnows. So who cares?
Joel – You’ve made this WAR argument a bunch of times, and I know you know it’s complete nonsense for determining a player’s worth today. For one, position players generally accrue more WAR each year. I’s easier to accrue WAR as a position player. For another, trade value and salaries aren’t determined by comparing a pitcher’s WAR to a position player’s WAR. Pitchers are compared to pitchers. Last and most important, trade value and salary is based on what the player will do tomorrow. Lifetime WAR is totally irrelevant.
No, a 2 win player is not replacement level. The stat is called Wins Above Replacement Player. That’s 2 wins more than replacement by definition.
Dude you just made all that up because you are a Rays fan and want to believe Glasnow has legit trade value.
That’s lame.
If Carlos Rodon got 21.5 million in 2022 coming off a far better season than Glasnows how does Glasnow have trade value at 25 million?
That’s not an opinion that’s as good of a comp as you could possibly find for Glasnow.
Explain that to me.
This. A major league average player is not replacement level by definition of the stat. 2 WAR is 2 wins ABOVE a replacement player and not a star but definitely major league regular capable.
Joel – Glas made $5.1MM in 2022 and didn’t pitch. His 2023 arbitration salary would have been about the same as his 2022 salary. That’s what happens when someone doesn’t play for a year. Why do you think there was a discount applied to his 2023 salary?
I’m not a doctor, but I understood Glas’ injury to be something like an elbow strain, minor tear or “weak arm” (whatever that is). In any event, he was able to delay the surgery by resting the arm during the season, but the end result was always going to be TJS. The ligament needed to be replaced (or Glas needed to find another occupation that wouldn’t put so much stress on the elbow).
Glasnow got a bigger raise from year 1 arb to year 2 than he got from year 2 arb to year 3. And that’s coming off a year where he didn’t pitch in arb year 2 he was hurt all year.
That’s not how arbitration works. That’s how I know his 2023 salary was discounted.
Just admit you are wrong man. It’s not that big of a deal.
Joel – I don’t know what post of mine you are responding to with the Otrash comment. Sorry, but I can barely follow this comment thread right now. In any event, I don’t have any negative feelings toward O’Neill. I just see him as a 4th outfielder and not a particularly good fit for the Rays. As far as trade value goes, you mentioned a trading site that gave Aroz $33MM trade value earlier, so I’m guessing you’re familiar with baseballtradevalues.com and know that Glasnow has more trade value than O’Neill according to their formulas.
Joel – LOL… You’re absolutely right. Why are we talking about O’Neill and Glasnow in an Aroz article comment thread?
Joel – I don’t know if the Rodon comment was directed at me, but I’ll give my 2 cents. Glasnow has had 1 recurring injury and he delayed the necessary surgery to fix it so he could pitch in the post-season for as many years as possible. Rodon is the more aptly named “injury prone” pitcher, as this year demonstrated.
Joel – Of course Glas got a bigger raise coming off arb1 than arb2. He pitched 1/2 the year at a CYA level in arb1, but only pitched 6 innings in arb2.
I may be wrong on Glasnow’s trade value. We will probably find out in the next 10 days. If I am, I will admit for all the world that I was wrong and you were right. But I’m not wrong about his arb3 salary. 😉
As a cardinals fan, the most that’s getting us is *maybe* Jason adam
I think you’re struggling to grasp basic concepts. Both injury prone players. In oneils hobbled together two years which equal one real year he is a league average, below league average player. As most people refer to them as replacement level. Glasnow in his hobbled together injury prone last 200 innings is a 6 fWAr pitcher. Both have one year left. One is a left fielder which is a pretty low demand position. One is a Sp a pretty high demand position. You really in your heart think Oneil has as much value? Most sane people would say, absolutely not.
League average and replacement level are 2 entirely different things. That’s reality what you said is made up garbage.
ONeill career WAR 9.5
Glasnow career WAR 9.8
And Glasnow has been around for 2 freaking years longer than ONeill has.
WAR takes into account what positions are in demand.
You are full of it.
Considering I haven’t seen one person agree with you, I let you decide who’s full of it.
Iml12
Why are you involved here? Are you a Rays or a Cardinal fan?
Someone liked all my comments. Maybe they just don’t want to argue.
One guy is a Rays fan. I understand why he would have a bias. One guy hates ONeill like many weird Cardinal fans do.
Why are you here?
You are a Rays fan. Another guy arguing against me is a Rays fan. And you think that makes you right??? You are truly using other Rays fans as justification for why you are right?????
Come on dude. I don’t want to mute you but I will. I will.
Sorry, I didn’t know I wasn’t allowed to have an opinion. I’ll make sure to monitor that you only comment on Cardinal related articles.
If Rodon got 21.5 million for 1 year coming off a year where he pitched 178 innings and led the league in FIP and K per 9 then how on earth does Glasnow have trade value at 25 million coming off a career high of 120 innings of pitching that wasn’t as good as Rodons???
Explain that to me. I am not a Rodon fan he’s completely neutral. Are you just smarter than everyone else???
You still rambling on about your 4th outfielder? lol stfu
Braves. It’s honestly depressing that you won’t listen to anything that anybody is saying. You just assume that people are against you or fans of a rival or have a prejudiced view of o’neil. Tyler Glasnow signed a very back loaded deal. 5 million for the first year, 25 million the next . I can’t speak for the Rays but if I was guessing it would be to have him cheaper in the first season and try to move him the second. The Rodon situation is not the same at all and has nothing to do with this. Rodon was coming off of a career year but his first real good year. He signed a prove it deal with the giants and showed out. Glasnow wasn’t a free agent when he signed his contract and I explained above the Rays angle of this deal. Although Glasnow is injury prone, when he does take the mound he was far more consistent than Rodon was when he signed the prove it deal with the giants. These things aren’t the same thing at all. While the package for Glasnow won’t be huge, it will be bigger than a package for a left fielder who hasn’t hit in two seasons. Surely you can see this.
Glasnow was not more consistent than R9don was at the time Rodon signed his 1 year deal. And it’s relevant because we are trying to assess Glasnows value and Glasnow is signed for 1 year just like Rodon signed for.
You are making it up as you go because you don’t want to admit you are wrong. Rodon is a real life example of what injury prone talented pitchers are worth and you act like it isn’t relevant. That’s nonsense.
You should be learning here. Try it.
I made up nothing.
Rodon since first full season era 3.79. Fip 3.94 9.5 k per nine
Glasnow since first full season era 3.27 fip 3.26 12.1 k per nine
Also before Rodon “breakout year” he pitched to an era over 8 and an era 5 respectively. Not exactly consistent right? Can’t argue with facts buddy.
I aged 20 years trying to scroll through all of that above. Zzzzzz….
Joel – Is the Mute threat directed at me? Don’t mute me. We’re just chatting.
He’d be a big get for any club. I’m not trying to point fingers here. The guy is a threat in the playoff’s. A real threat.
Yeah he’s good. If my team flipped for him I’d be fine with it.
He hits well in the playoffs. My Dodgers not interested.
Who needs an outfielder and has prospects and perhaps not money to spend?
Arizona maybe?
I’m sure he’s “on the Yankees’ radar.” (sarcasm)
Randy is the most overrated player in MLB.
He’s not going anywhere!!
Trade simulator says he has 33 million in surplus value and that seems a bit light to me. Rays want and need pitching and maybe a catcher. The Rays could also add Glasnow in the deal or Margot in a salary dump type of move.
What teams make sense?
Twins need a good SP and a decent hitting OF. and they have a pile of infielders.
Rays need pitching. Good young pitching the kind the Twins don’t usually have or trade.
He gets a lot of pitches to hit. The Rays have been able to “hide” him in the lineup in certain spots to boost his production. I don’t know why anyone would ever trade with the Rays. Something’s wrong here.
The Dodgers would because they need a left fielder, and most importantly, he preforms under pressure in the post-season
Briar – According to Fangraphs, Aroz only batted 1st, 2nd, 3rd or 4th last year in the lineup. How exactly are the Rays “hiding” him?
Cmon diamondbacks
Mariners:
Bryan Woo, P
Dominic Canzone, OF
Jose Caballero, IF
Seems about what it would take.
I think the Mariners are a good fit. They need an outfielder for sure. The Mariners are balling on a budget as they say and they have pitching. I don’t think they will trade Caballero and I believe the Rays have enough infielders even without Franco although I would have to look it up. Rays need pitching Woo or Miller or Hancock would all make sense.
Arozarena and Kevin Kelly for Bryan Woo and Gabriel Gonzalez. is an even value deal. Mariners get big bat and a mid rotation arm in Kelly in exchange for a very good prospect but 2-3 years away and Woo who slides into the Rays rotation..
Who wouldn’t want an OF of Rodriquez, Kelenic and Arozarena for the next three years?
I don’t think the Rays would trade Kelly leave him out of the deal. And I think Woo is a bit overrated. Woo and Gonzalez for Arozarena sounds better to me.
LOL… You’re peddling this trade everywhere Budman. Maybe the Rays and Mariners are listening. Seems like a deal between them for Diaz, Aroz or Paredes for pitching and/or catching makes both teams better.
xcfan – Counterproposal – Woo (P), Celesten (SS) and Adcock (RP); although I suspect the Rays will agree to a less obvious trade package.
The Mariners would have a glut of MLB ready OF prospects and surely would want to send one back in the trade. I think that would be desired by the Rays too.
Celesten isn’t likely on the table this year. They would want to see if he can realize his potential. However, with Young, Emerson, Peete, Arroyo already showing some success as middle IF prospects it’s a possibility in the future. Axel Sanchez probably gets thrown into a trade for nothing, considering the number of SS prospects are in the lower minors for the Mariners.
Ok, I’ll give it a shot…
Johan Rojas, Justin Crawford, & Griff McGarry for Randy Arozarena.
I rare proposal that contains young talent a team would be interested in. You would grab the Rays attention.
Brian – Counterproposal – Aroz and small secondary piece for Abel and Crawford. I doubt Philly goes for that though. Unfortunately, I just don’t think the two systems line up well for an Aroz trade.
Plenty to like. Fans of whatever team that gets him should be excited. I would advise trading him if you could receive fair value. Rays can’t afford to keep everyone and this wouldn’t be someone I prioritized.
Im sure most teams would be interested in him. Big talent but he definitely is streakier than most from what ive noticed following him. From cant get him out to cant buy a hit for noticeable stretches.
How about an outfield of Arozarena, Thomas, and Carroll? Gitter done DBacks, but don’t give up the entire farm to make it happen.
Drdback – Would the D-Backs trade D.Jones for Aroz?
mariners get arozarena, rays get woo and trammel
bluesfan – LOL. Mariners been trying to get rid of Trammel since they acquired him. Rays don’ want him.
Trammell just doesn’t move the needle that much. You’d have Canzone, Deloach, Clase, and Marlowe not doing much except playing for Tacoma who currently have more value than Trammell. I’d imagine the Rays would insist on one of those guys instead.