The Padres’ interest in Jung Hoo Lee is well known, though the large amount of interest in Lee’s services threatens to push him out of San Diego’s price range, The Athletic’s Dennis Lin writes. MLBTR projected five years and $50MM for Lee in his first Major League contract as he made the jump from the KBO League, yet Lin hears that the the 25-year-old outfielder could land closer to $90MM, without counting the posting fee a team would additionally owe to the Kiwoom Heroes, Lee’s KBO League club.
Finances have been an big subplot of the Padres’ offseason, as the team’s debt-driven need to reduce payroll has already resulted in Juan Soto’s trade to the Yankees, as well as the seeming unlikelihood of a reunion with such high-profile free agents as Blake Snell, Josh Hader, or Seth Lugo (and Nick Martinez has already signed with the Reds). San Diego has roughly $155.7MM on the books for 2024 according to Roster Resource, yet with several roster holes to fill and a rough payroll limit of around $200MM, spending more than expected on Lee will make it more difficult for the Padres to properly address every need. Lee’s agent Scott Boras isn’t in the habit of giving pseudo-hometown discounts, even if San Diego holds particular appeal to Lee since he is best friends with Ha-Seong Kim.
More from around the NL West…
- Returning to the Soto trade talks, San Diego president of baseball operations A.J. Preller said the Soto field was comprised of 10 teams with three finalists. The San Francisco Chronicle’s John Shea reports that the Giants were one of the initial 10, though they didn’t make the cut for two central reasons — the Padres preferred the Yankees’ pitching-heavy trade package, and the Padres weren’t keen on moving Soto to a division rival. San Francisco does have a solid batch of young pitching depth of its own, and those arms have naturally drawn interest from other teams given the league-wide demand for pitching. This would seemingly help the Giants’ chances of landing some high-end hitting talent, depending on how much of that depth San Francisco is willing to surrender.
- The Rockies have often been accused of lagging behind other teams in the analytics department, though MLB.com’s Thomas Harding writes that Colorado is preparing to open a performance lab at its Spring Training facilities. This is the latest step for a research and development department that has 11 staffers and planning to add more, as most other clubs have considerably more employees in similar departments around the league. “It’s kind of like college football used to be, where there was an arms race for facilities,” Rockies R&D director Brian Jones said. “This is similar. It’s an arms race for talented people — research and development, analysts, biomechanists — every kind of advantage.”
Balk
Giants need to start getting some dudes signed and keep some top end starters from going to the Dodgers. Wrap up Lee and Yamamoto
99CaptainJudge99
Let’s stop pretending Lee is signing with the Giants like Arson Judge did. If Lee is smart, he’ll definitely sign with the Padres instead.
Balk
Chopon…that’s an old narrative. Los Angeles is no different, celebrities are fleeing that place it’s so bad.
UncommonSense
Los Angeles being a bad city is pure propaganda don’t fall for it.
Jerry Hairston Jr's Toupee
ITT: suburban pansies who watch too much Fox news….
Balk
I don’t know you you’re referring to bro…let’s focus on baseball though huh?
VTGiant
Let’s stop pretending the Giants are going to spend any big $$.
Every year b like “the Giants are expected to be big players in the free agent market…”
I don’t blame Zaidi though, it’s a cheap-ass owners group… they won’t do anything until attendance drops to the Florida Marlins level which hopefully will be soon.
Yussel
The Giants are on “in” on everybody and get NOBODY. The front office does not have the nerve to pull off a big deal. And as the Ohtani, Judge, and Harper debacles have shown, the top free agents do not want to come to San Francisco for a variety of reasons.
Cincyfan85
Nick Martinez signed with the Reds, not the geriatric Cardinals.
Hired Gun 23
And supposedly this Mark guy is one of the better regurgitators on the entire site. Go figure…
Cincyfan85
Why come here if you don’t like it?
Hired Gun 23
Truth…it’s entertaining.
DanUgglasRing
Giants are gonna do this again omfg
Balk
Where should they pivot from here? Look at pieces from TB? Try and get Alonso? Belli? Definitely need to go heavy and get Yamamoto I think
drasco036
What player is coming off a bad year or serious injury that doesn’t have any other options that the Giants can over pay?
Writing is on the wall in San Fran, “no one wants to play here”. Owners need to chop the head off
Balk
I don’t believe that take one bit…Judge was never going to sign there, and neither was Ohtani…that writing was on the wall. Correa did sign and the team dodged a bullet. Money and prospects talks. At the end of the offseason I’ll be right here and you can say told ya so if they still don’t land anyone.
99CaptainJudge99
@DanUgglasRing-Hey just become a Yankees fan, your a cool guy, we can use you.
FunGhoul
So what team was the 3rd finalist for Soto?
99CaptainJudge99
Probably the Blue Jays, who are now the new Giants.
sabernar
Shouldn’t he be referred to as Kim Ha-Seong? And Lee Jung-Hoo? Korean places surnames first, and that’s standard in journalism, too.
El Niño
His jersey says H.S. Kim. Pretty sure he would have corrected it if it’s wrong/offensive.
Thank you Pete!
That’s true BUT if you talk to any Koreans living here you’ll find out that they conform to our naming conventions.
Brew’88
just look at his uniform from last year in the KBO:
“J. H. Lee” on his back
El Niño
But wouldn’t H.S. Have corrected it?
Brew88
J.H. Lee and H.S. Kim on the same team would be cool
James Midway
Oh look another hit piece by Bow Tie Bob’s lackey. Yawn
27champyankees
Before Whiny Giants fans hi Jack this thread with all their proposed FA ideas to improve their irrelevant and clearly unimportant team, it needs be understood that there are legitimate reasons why Top Free Agents are uninterested in playing in San Francisco
1) Losing Culture
( The Giants have only had ONE winning season since 2016)
2) For Hitters: It’s a Bad ballpark to hit in and there is absolutely no protection in that rinky Dink line up
Who is gonna protect a FA hitter like Bellinger…..Wilmer Flores??
3) The weather. It’s Cold in San Francisco in the evening. Even in the summer. There is a reason most ball players spend their off seasons in Arizona and Florida
4) The City of San Francisco
SF currently has a terrible amount of negative national TV coverage. High crime, open Drug use in the streets, Human feces on the sidewalks
Even if a FA Hitter is considering SF , his mega rich wife who is raising his children isn’t gonna sign off on Frisco.
Farhan Zaidi needs to work the phones because his only option for marginal improvement will be the trade market.
outinleftfield
San Francisco isn;t in the top 30 in per capita violent crime in the US. St Louis, Detroit, Baltimore, Memphis, Little Rock, Milwaukee, Rockford, IL, Cleveland, Stockton, CA, and Albuquerque round out the top 10.
James Midway
I have no love for the Giants, but they have won 3 of the last 13 (2020 isn’t a real season) World Series Championships. They have won the second most championships this century.
To say they are irrelevant and unimportant is just silly.
toptimrubies
3 of the last 13, or 3 of the last 70?
UncommonSense
San Francisco is a beautiful city if you hear anything other than that it’s pure propaganda
Backup Catcher to the Backup Catcher
Sure that’s not poop-a-ganda? I hear people can use the sidewalks for relief just like dogs. Beautiful city? Indeed it is. However too many people staining that beauty. It’s a shame.
JudgementDay
Not bad city but when a 550 sq. Foot mini home cost 550k, it’s time to move away
JoeBrady
4) The City of San Francisco
SF currently has a terrible amount of negative national TV coverage. High crime, open Drug use in the streets, Human feces on the sidewalks
===========================
Just for the record, the problems of the commoners don’t impact the wealthy. Lee won’t be living on the cusp of a homeless encampment. This argument reminds me of Hampton saying he chose the Rox over the NYMs because of their public school system. You know, like his kids were ever going to a public school.
BrianStrowman9
@Joe
Some Guys send their kids to public school. Jackson Holliday went to Stillwater HS.
He sure as hell could’ve afforded a private school tuition payment if he wanted to. Phil Nevin’s kid went to public school too. Probably a hundred others.
I think he probably wanted to raise a family in a suburb & said school zone though.
gilgunderson
It’s not like San Francisco doesn’t have wealthy, bucolic suburbs with excellent schools or anything. Atherton is one of, if not the richest zip code in the US.
Brew’88
Giants have won more games in last two MLB seasons than your Yankees, champ.
Brew’88
on raising children in SF.
SF boasts not the 3rd highest, not the 2nd highest, but the highest ranking by Bestschools.com in K-12 education among any major city in the US.
It must hurt to be so incredibly wrong
on wives raising children.
Married women incomes in SF are highest in the nation. They are doing well raising income and kids. You sexist dinosaur bs-er
Chipsss
you didn’t read or comprehend that at all. dummy lol
UncommonSense
There’s no need to call anyone names here
HalosHeavenJJ
SF’s best play is probably to keep those pitchers and form a cost controlled rotation in the near future.
bag o ballz
Well the thing is that the Giants have probably 7 – 10 guys counting the current Harrison Winn and Beck that are rotation pieces (roupp, black, wisenhunt, teng, Crawford and a few others) and they are all on their way up within a year or 2 of each other. If you slot a top of the rotation arm like Yamamoto or smell in you have that and Webb long term leaving some 3-4 slots in that rotation and that means you ought to put feelers out before just having to protect all the good on the 40 man
whyhayzee
I love when people rant about the media but then use it when it agrees with their narrative.
RobM
So, $90 million for a hitter who sees as much velocity in an entire season as the average major leaguer sees in a single week? Lee has talent, but there are certainly question marks here, too. This is what happens when there’s more money to spend than talent to spend it on. Some team is likely to get burned.
Chipsss
agreed, I see Lee as being a huge bust in the US
towinagain
If this organization is as hamstrung financially as they make it seem, we are headed for another firesale.
If we are headed for another firesale as a Padres fan then we’ll, boycott
gardyparty
How can they have a firesale when other teams won’t take those contracts off their hands?
towinagain
They have already floated that in the media. Sports Illustrated proposed this.
The Padres need to prove to fans that this isn’t a firesale.
Simm
One Tatis has a huge amount of surplus value. He was an over a 5 war players last year in a down offensive season coming back from two major surgeries and not playing for 18 months. He right now has some of the highest value of any player in the league with his aav of 24m until age 35.
Xander aav of 25m is fine. His problem is he has about 2-3 years too long. So the padres 30-50on that deal and they could move him. 30-50m over 10 years isn’t hardly anything to eat over that time.
Roughly the same for manny.
Anyways none of them are going anywhere anytime soon. Padres are still bringing in a lot of revenue. Well over 400m a year, they can afford a 200m payroll. Just not a 250m year in and year out.
We still don’t know what the padres final plan will be.
JoeBrady
So the padres 30-50on that deal and they could move him.
==========================
More like $100M. His future position is likely to be 2B (should be LF for the SDP), with 17 HR power, .295, and a average, dependable glove. That has value, but if he were a FA, how does that differ him much from a guy like Polanco?
In the last three years, Polanco has a 120 OPS+ with a 3.2 bWAR, and a 4.4 bWAR/650 PAs. X has a 126 OPS+, a 5.1 bWAR and a 5.2/650.
Unless one can make a case that X stays at SS for maybe 5 years, he isn’t worth much more than Polanco.
MLB Top 100 Commenter
While I agree Bogey contract was insane to pay premium for shortstop when they could have signed a cheap one year 1B and kept Kim at SS and Crony at 2B, there is no reason to imagine a Padres fire sale. They need to cut payroll slightly and they accomplished that with moving Soto. They will pick up a couple of cheap pitchers but I don’t see afurther exodus of talent unless it is for equivalent mlb-ready talent. I do think the Padres may get priced out of Jung Hoo Lee, but maybe they will still be in the mix for him.
Goin' to Sheetz
Yamamoto and Bellinger. Otherwise, I think Zaidi should pay for his three lackluster off-seasons. But it appears the new owner is content to run the team like the A’s.
agnes gooch
Sheetz, SF does not have a new owner, it’s the same ownership group of investors. The only new investor on the group is Buster Posey who now owns approximately 1%. The majority owner is older and his son is now getting more TV time, that is all.
outinleftfield
Last things first. Boras isn’t the one that would give a discount or make the decision about where or how much a player signs for. Agents advise their clients, but in the end the client makes the decision. See Ohtani who suggested deferred money when he certainly didn’t have to.
Padres new control person said in an interview that they have no payroll limit, but he could see a scenario where they reset the CBT tax if that didn’t interfere with putting a championship level team on the field.
That would mean that at a minimum they can move CBT payroll back up into the $237 million range. That seems far more realistic than the $200 million figure that keeps getting bandied about, even though the writer for their local paper that first said it has since backed off on that.
Cots has them at $202 million for their CBT payroll, so they are already over the $200 million number mentioned in this article and so many others. That includes Arbitration estimates and pre-arb players. If you believe the guy that will be making the call on how much they will actually spend, that would leave them a solid $30 million and still have a little room to add someone at the deadline.
So signing Lee at a $10-12 million AAV and even Yamamoto, is not out of the question. The Padres picked up 3 guys that could fill in at the back of the rotation in the Soto trade and the backup catcher they needed, but they still need at least one guy to slot in at the top of that rotation, so I highly doubt they are able to stay under the CBT and put a playoff caliber pitching staff together.
They have been very consistent about saying that was their goal and that they would honor Seidler’s legacy by continuing to run the team like he did, so until they actually say they are cutting payroll, I tend not to believe it.
Balk
Yamamoto is going to cost 300 million easy, Lee if you’re going to pay him that amount of 11 million a year, you going 8yr /11mill? You think that gets it done?
outinleftfield
I won’t be paying him anything. I will be sitting at Angels games lamenting the loss of Ohtani and watching another losing season with Arte as the owner.
Closer to $90 million is what Lin is quoted in this article as having said. I can see the Padres actually going longer to lower the AAV. 9/90? 10/90? He is 25 years old after all. Yes, I think that gets it done. Although Lin does not have a good track record of predicting FA contracts. If I am not mistaken, he is the guy that said that Senga was asking for 5/90, Harper would be more than $350 million, and Ohtani would not surpass $500 million.
Javia135
If he signs for $10 to $12 million per season the Padres will be in play. If he signs for $15 to $18 million per year he will likely be playing elsewhere.
Balk
Well if MLBTR is anywhere close, it looks like he could be getting somewhere between 80-90 over 5 years. Who knows with this crazy market
outinleftfield
I don’t see 5/90 as realistic for a player that is not a power hitter and plays in the equivalent of AAA today.
Lee is not the type of power hitter that Yoshida was when the Red Sox signed him and the KBO is a lower level league. He hit for about the same average in the KBO as Yoshida did in the NPB, but power gets paid.
Pads Fans
I was going to try to pick apart your post, but I can’t. I think you got most of it correct. After Soto I still think they are going to try to stay under the CBT threshold, but the rest is on the money.
Simm
I think the 200m is what they are saying the 2024 payroll would be not the tax number.
They have around 30m to spend to stay under the tax but have about 40m to spend to keep payroll at 200m (after 30m they will have tax added to this years payroll).
Now none of these are sure thing but it would make sense for them to want to reset the tax. If you are going to do it then this years seems like as good as any.
I do think they will spend up to 15m a year on Lee but he might get more. I still think the padres are the front runner for him but they have a limit on what they would give him.
Padres should be able to field a quality team while spending around 30m. They may also free up more money another 11m (roughly) trading cronenworth.
They are not going to sign Yamamoto his market has gone to a crazy level. It’s more likely they make a trade for a guy who cost less next season.
Padres have 6 top 100 prospects and 2-3 that may hit the top 100 soon and will sign the best short stop international prospect Sivan wander Franco next month.
Padres are actually in pretty good shape despite moving down some payroll. Which every team does even the Yankees were below the tax line 2 years ago.
Longtimecoming
Simm and PadsFan – I think we can all agree that with a soon to be 7-10 top 100’s (maybe top 110), the TOR SP Fox has to be via trade – just don’t move the top 5/6 and use volume of 7-30 is my hope.
They can easily obtain a quality “lower cost” SP line Burnes or a Miami guy, etc.
ACK
I pretty much agree with everything you said regarding the Padres payroll. The one speculation I have that can never be proven is that I think MLB might have told the Padres, DB’s, & Twins that they will ONLY cover a percentage of the lost Bally sports TV deal money IF these teams payroll’s are under the CBT tax limits.
Obviously, we will never know if that is the case; but it would make sense to me that MLB could sell that to the other owners IF these teams were not over the CBT payroll tax limits.
I believe last year MLB covered 75-80% of the lost $50M of the Padres RSN TV deal. It’s hard to ask MLB to cover that lost revenue when you are also paying the CBT Tax. MLB has likely said, get back to us after you have eliminated your excess spending that has cost you a CBT Tax payment 1st.
JoeBrady
So signing Lee at a $10-12 million AAV and even Yamamoto, is not out of the question.
==============================
Too many people are assuming that you are out of it.
The pendulum has swung full length. Two weeks ago, the wild-eyed SD fanatics thought Soto would never be traded, and they would still be able to sign multiple FAs.
Now folks are taking taking up a DontDunMe for you, and i am not convinced it’s over yet. It’ll still cost you some money, and that is no certainty, but the addition of Lee in RF or CF, move Bogaerts to LF, Kim to SS, and Cro to 2nd, and trade for 2 SPs, and I think you will actually be closer to your 2022 team than your 2023 team.
Brew’88
The 2022 team had a 6 SP opening day: Snell, Darvish (healthy), Musgrove (healthy), Gore, Manaea, and Clevinger.
This year they have Darvish (maybe not healthy), Musgrove (questionably healthy), King and a bunch of scrubs.
At least with SP, even if this team signs Yam or Burnes (not likely due to payroll slashing), it won’t resemble the 2022 team’s SP depth and quality.
ACK
@Brew’88 I think the Padres use that money saved from trading Soto to sign Seth Lugo back. 3 yr $36-$45M. The Padres have been good at identifying foreign FA talent for SP rotation & bullpen. I see them signing LRP Yuki Matsui for bullpen.
SP Rotation – Musgrove, Darvish, King, Lugo, Vasquez, Waldren (with Thorpe up by July and Britto & Avalia to replace injuries or Vasquez & Waldren).
The idea of middle tier MLB teams in 2024 is to stay w/i the WC playoff race and then trade for SP rentals at trade deadline. The Rangers wouldn’t have won WS w/o Montgomery & Scherzer.
BrianStrowman9
@Brew
Yeah, it’s tough to rely on what depth they have in the rotation right now.
Thorpe is a rookie (won’t be surprised if SDP pushes him up—they’re aggressive with promoting even though they haven’t developed a prospect of their own in the rotation)
King has never pitched a full starters workload and Darvish/Musgrove have spent plenty of time on the IL. Brito and Vasquez are 6th starters to me. We’ll see if Niebla gets more out of them.
Lot of question marks with the club. There’s definitely a world where they claim a WC slot and surprise people. But the roster needs some work right now. It can’t be complete.
They’ll either need to trade away some prospects to fill out slots or they have to spend 10’s of millions in FA.
BrianStrowman9
@Joe
Who plays 1B? That’s a massive hole for SDP if it’s not Crone. (Probably is either way but they have hole at either 2B or 1B depending on what you do w/ him)
I think they needed to trade Soto because they obviously weren’t going to run up a $250MM payroll. A lot of people have words to eat with their steadfast rejections of the notion. They got a lot of MLB ready pieces in the deal. I don’t know if that signals a desire to add dog. payroll or if they’re just trying to fill backfill the slots.
Brew’88
@outfield. So far their actions suggest they are cutting payroll, but we’ll see
SFG.1
I wonder who put this information out. Some intern working for Zaidi? Who cares what anyone claims they were interested in doing? If they didn’t make it happen, it doesn’t matter, Zaidi doesn’t get credit for trying.
agnes gooch
SFG.1—Judge used the Giants to leverage the Yanks, he always wanted to go back to NY. Zaidi made the same offer. When a player wants to be in a particular city, there’s not much you can do unless you drastically overpay.
Ohtani clearly wanted to stay in LA, he’s all set up there. We don’t know the Giants offer yet but it sounds the same or close, same with the Blue Jays.
And Correa, his medicals showed a severely compromised ankle, the Giants dodged a major bullet, so did the Mets.
And if Zaidi does land a big fish, you will say he overpaid and it’s a bad contract. Some people just like to spread negativity. Smile and be happy, it’s much more becoming!
Fraile Flows
With bags being bigger it’s easier to steal bases as the total SB column jumped considerably last year. Therefore OBP is more valuable as a walk or a hit means runners in scoring position. Good defensive athletes are also on demand, so the value of a player has changed in recent years. Sluggers with low OBP are one dimensional, and teams like the Padres who do analytics know the profile of player that will make a difference in these type of fast game. So, the value of Lee is not $10, not $20, but somewhere in between. Padres will probably draw the line at $15. It would be awesome to have Korea (Padres) vs Japan (Dodgers) opening up in Seoul this year though.
SFG.1
Not being able to throw to 1st unlimited times has made stealing bases easier too.
damascusj
Honestly it would make playing Ohtani and the dodgers that Much more palatable …
Kim and Lee, the Seoul of San Diego.
Out that on a T-shirt
SFG.1
if it’s going to take $90mil to land Lee, the Giants need to offer $ 150mil.
bag o ballz
I don’t think that is anywhere near true, it isn’t like they are coming to play for the Rockies, the Giants game a great culture in the clubhouse but have dealt with false narratives as long as they have been here
Pads Fans
Lee is a great young player, but I doubt he gets the same AAV that Yoshida got. For one thing, he is not a power hitter and Yoshida was.is. He also plays in the KBO which is not considered as high of a level of play as the NPB.
He may get more years because of his age, but I seriously doubt he gets $18 million AAV
If Lin had said 9/90 or even $12 million AAV for 6 or 7 years, that I could see happening.
Simm
Lee should be a better defender and runner.
Nobody thought yoshida was worth 90m at the time either. Still not sure he is worth it but maybe.
The fact that some think Lee can stick in center ups his value. Though Trent Grisham can run and play center and has some power but isn’t with 90m.
ACK
Most comps have KBO at AA talent levels and NPB at AAA talent levels.
I would like to sign Lee, but there is likely to be 1-2 yr learning curve/adjustment period for him to get used to MLB heat & FB speed. It took H.S. Kim nearly 2 years to hit for the Padres and he was a better hitter in KBO.
Brew’88
@ACK. well said. Assuming Lee has a similar first 2 season decline in numbers from KBO as Kim, we can expect BA .285, 8-10 HRs, 10 SBs, I’m not sure he’s worth $90M for a team now desperately needing slug. Right now the Padres look to have 2 guys capable of 30 Hrs (Tatis and Machado) and only one guy with a reasonable chance of reaching 20 HRs (Bogaerts). That’s a big drop from 2023, and a drop from 2022 when the team lack of slug was a theme.
Backup Catcher to the Backup Catcher
Lee would look good at Phillies everyday LF. We have an opening. I would prefer a high contact and solid defender over one of the swing-and-miss HR hitters that we will more than likely end up with.
Datashark
for Farhan, Soto needed to be 30 or over and has not had a need to showcase after a bad season or two.
Habitual Truth Teller
If Padres miss out on Lee they probably move Tatis Jr to CF and platoon LF and RF
LF
Jordan Luplow against lefties
Profar against righties
Luplow and Profar give them position flexibility (luplow COF/1B/DH and Profar (COF/2B/1B/DH).
Rf
Robbie Grossman against lefties
Azocar against righties
Or try out Harrison Bader and just platoon LF